{"country":"Colombia","coverage":{"country":"Colombia","status":"Results imported; completion checks remain","units":2307,"historical_units":0,"histories":6825,"party_rows":45783,"three_votes":2194,"three_seats":0,"score_ready":0,"note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","date":"2027-10-31","denominator_status":"Eligible-office denominator not closed","file":"Colombia_Returns.xlsx","comparison_ci_available":2186,"grouped_volatility_available":1916},"offices":[{"id":"CO-ALC-05001","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Medellin","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[68.23235133778147,9.781619978049541,1.492613981289793],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05001|2023|Ordinary election|0","CO-ALC-05001|2019|Ordinary election|1","CO-ALC-05001|2015|Ordinary election|2"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05001|2023|Ordinary election|0","CO-ALC-05001|2019|Ordinary election|1","CO-ALC-05001|2015|Ordinary election|2"],"shares":[[0.7909950936112676,0.10867158023345298],[0.43279415679346783,0.33497795701297245],[0.38326510281275783,0.36833896299985985]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.3032916666194426,0,99.69670833338057],[0,0,0,0,33.49779570129724,1.957747501391477,0,0,1.3765300907769638,0,63.16792670653432],[0,0.24998832557632739,0,0,36.83389629998599,0,0,0,1.3906573478822595,0,61.52545802655543]],"volatility_latest":36.528781626846246,"volatility_previous":3.6002161813703677,"volatility_mean":20.06449890410831,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05002","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Abejorral","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.030567685589517,13.746261216350948,16.426015056152043],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05002|2023|Ordinary election|3","CO-ALC-05002|2019|Ordinary election|4","CO-ALC-05002|2015|Ordinary election|5"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05002|2023|Ordinary election|3","CO-ALC-05002|2019|Ordinary election|4","CO-ALC-05002|2015|Ordinary election|5"],"shares":[[0.5823629306162057,0.41205725376031055],[0.3624127617148554,0.22495014955134596],[0.3828211773417253,0.21856102678020486]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":20.075897590629012,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[19.229810568295115,0,0,0,36.241276171485545,6.193918245264207,0,0,0,15.839980059820538,22.495014955134597],[19.498951005800322,38.28211773417253,14.31568554856226,0,4.664938911514254,0,1.3822041219301493,0,0,0,21.856102678020488]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":54.249147842170146,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05004","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Abriaqui","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.576271186440678,29.322268326417706,12.669683257918557],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05004|2023|Ordinary election|6","CO-ALC-05004|2019|Ordinary election|7","CO-ALC-05004|2015|Ordinary election|8"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05004|2023|Ordinary election|6","CO-ALC-05004|2019|Ordinary election|7","CO-ALC-05004|2015|Ordinary election|8"],"shares":[[0.5518644067796611,0.44610169491525425],[0.5338865836791148,0.24066390041493776],[0.5542986425339367,0.4276018099547511]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":17.952942322092124,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[55.186440677966104,0,0,0,0,44.610169491525426,0,0,0,0,0.2033898305084746],[53.38865836791148,0,0,22.544951590594746,24.066390041493776,0,0,0,0,0,0],[55.42986425339367,0,0,1.8099547511312217,0,0,0,0,0,0,42.76018099547511]],"volatility_latest":46.611341632088525,"volatility_previous":44.801386880957295,"volatility_mean":45.70636425652291,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05021","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Alejandria","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.018945374171135,14.054927302100158,17.56425948592411],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05021|2023|Ordinary election|9","CO-ALC-05021|2019|Ordinary election|10","CO-ALC-05021|2015|Ordinary election|11"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05021|2023|Ordinary election|9","CO-ALC-05021|2019|Ordinary election|10","CO-ALC-05021|2015|Ordinary election|11"],"shares":[[0.5194190085254183,0.319229554783707],[0.43424878836833597,0.2936995153473344],[0.5878212974296205,0.4121787025703794]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":10.078643181374304,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[29.369951534733442,0,0,0,27.205169628432955,0,0,0,0,0,43.4248788368336],[41.217870257037944,0,58.782129742962056,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":70.63004846526655,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05030","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Amaga","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.031057678545878,20.30957230142566,2.815728090636455],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05030|2023|Ordinary election|12","CO-ALC-05030|2019|Ordinary election|13","CO-ALC-05030|2015|Ordinary election|14"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05030|2023|Ordinary election|12","CO-ALC-05030|2019|Ordinary election|13","CO-ALC-05030|2015|Ordinary election|14"],"shares":[[0.4901960784313726,0.3998855016459138],[0.4865987780040733,0.2835030549898167],[0.3250583138953682,0.29690103298900367]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":41.03460446690564,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,48.65987780040733,0,0,0,2.24847250509165,0,0,0,0,49.091649694501015],[8.997000999666778,29.690103298900368,13.753748750416527,0,32.50583138953682,14.586804398533822,0,0.2749083638787071,0,0,0.19160279906697766]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":67.869821396941,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05031","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Amalfi","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.691749529696317,44.13545638035434,10.292511227090664],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05031|2023|Ordinary election|15","CO-ALC-05031|2019|Ordinary election|16","CO-ALC-05031|2015|Ordinary election|17"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05031|2023|Ordinary election|15","CO-ALC-05031|2019|Ordinary election|16","CO-ALC-05031|2015|Ordinary election|17"],"shares":[[0.35622144584789034,0.28930395055092717],[0.6731329894595202,0.23177842565597667],[0.514382813448234,0.4114577011773274]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":8.575311226834204,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,22.614888470841173,0,0,0,0,2.459016393442623,0,0,0,74.92609513571621],[0,9.508858488450326,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,90.49114151154969],[41.14577011773274,0,0,51.4382813448234,0,0,0,0,0,0,7.415948537443865]],"volatility_latest":15.565046375833473,"volatility_previous":92.58405146255615,"volatility_mean":54.07454891919481,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05034","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Andes","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.881925013989928,10.324839302112029,5.957064178936719],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05034|2023|Ordinary election|18","CO-ALC-05034|2019|Ordinary election|19","CO-ALC-05034|2015|Ordinary election|20"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05034|2023|Ordinary election|18","CO-ALC-05034|2019|Ordinary election|19","CO-ALC-05034|2015|Ordinary election|20"],"shares":[[0.5453833240067152,0.4165640738668159],[0.40777089072543615,0.3045224977043159],[0.5232662695290548,0.46369562773968753]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":42.88843391539382,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05036","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Angelopolis","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.846113167636176,3.930942895086325,18.95774647887324],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05036|2023|Ordinary election|21","CO-ALC-05036|2019|Ordinary election|22","CO-ALC-05036|2015|Ordinary election|23"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05036|2023|Ordinary election|21","CO-ALC-05036|2019|Ordinary election|22","CO-ALC-05036|2015|Ordinary election|23"],"shares":[[0.5042305658381809,0.4957694341618191],[0.4552456839309429,0.4159362549800797],[0.4763380281690141,0.28676056338028166]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":82.08637291502536,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[49.57694341618191,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,50.42305658381809],[41.59362549800797,0,0,12.881806108897742,0,0,0,0,0,0,45.52456839309429],[0,0,0,28.676056338028168,6.647887323943662,0,0,17.04225352112676,0,0,47.63380281690141]],"volatility_latest":12.881806108897742,"volatility_previous":41.59362549800797,"volatility_mean":27.237715803452854,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05038","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Angostura","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[37.45590371446359,7.804878048780488,4.474370112945266],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05038|2023|Ordinary election|24","CO-ALC-05038|2019|Ordinary election|25","CO-ALC-05038|2015|Ordinary election|26"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05038|2023|Ordinary election|24","CO-ALC-05038|2019|Ordinary election|25","CO-ALC-05038|2015|Ordinary election|26"],"shares":[[0.6478522515044616,0.2732932143598257],[0.41675503711558853,0.33870625662778364],[0.3499131190269331,0.3051694178974805]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,3.0089230130732516,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,96.99107698692674],[33.870625662778366,41.675503711558854,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,24.453870625662777],[34.99131190269331,30.516941789748046,0,27.41094700260643,3.5403996524761077,3.5403996524761077,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":72.53720636126397,"volatility_previous":35.61243254747359,"volatility_mean":54.07481945436878,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05040","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Anori","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.504944735311227,9.718004338394799,25.10356255178128],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05040|2023|Ordinary election|27","CO-ALC-05040|2019|Ordinary election|28","CO-ALC-05040|2015|Ordinary election|29"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05040|2023|Ordinary election|27","CO-ALC-05040|2019|Ordinary election|28","CO-ALC-05040|2015|Ordinary election|29"],"shares":[[0.35296684118673644,0.31791739383362416],[0.5195950831525669,0.42241503976861894],[0.6200497100248551,0.36901408450704226]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":62.35637801058348,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,31.79173938336242,0,0,0,2.3705642815590457,0,0,2.545084351367074,0,63.29261198371146],[0,42.24150397686189,0,51.95950831525669,0,0,0,0,0,0,5.798987707881418],[0,62.004971002485505,0,1.0936205468102733,0,36.901408450704224,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":62.409272908756165,"volatility_previous":56.664875476327836,"volatility_mean":59.537074192542,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05042","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Antioquia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[21.278391651319826,5.750479206600545,8.46997095474562],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05042|2023|Ordinary election|30","CO-ALC-05042|2019|Ordinary election|31","CO-ALC-05042|2015|Ordinary election|32"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05042|2023|Ordinary election|30","CO-ALC-05042|2019|Ordinary election|31","CO-ALC-05042|2015|Ordinary election|32"],"shares":[[0.4299416820135052,0.21715776550030694],[0.3828652387698975,0.325360446703892],[0.46978356600768295,0.38508385646022675]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":23.3041207587669,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,21.715776550030693,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,78.2842234499693],[0,32.5360446703892,14.35952996083007,1.6501375114592882,38.28652387698975,12.601050087507293,0,0,0,0,0.566713892824402],[0,46.978356600768294,38.508385646022674,0.243605359317905,13.323339267310034,0,0,0,0,0.9463131265810925,0]],"volatility_latest":85.07375614634553,"volatility_previous":39.53748074215279,"volatility_mean":62.30561844424916,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05044","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Anza","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.387714222123307,14.382314694408322,1.1612206319200595],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05044|2023|Ordinary election|33","CO-ALC-05044|2019|Ordinary election|34","CO-ALC-05044|2015|Ordinary election|35"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05044|2023|Ordinary election|33","CO-ALC-05044|2019|Ordinary election|34","CO-ALC-05044|2015|Ordinary election|35"],"shares":[[0.5272646338749165,0.4633874916536835],[0.5719115734720416,0.42808842652795837],[0.5058061031596003,0.4941938968403997]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":58.68277497605756,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,49.41938968403997,0,0,50.58061031596003,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05045","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Apartado","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2025,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,11.939965822126453,19.060789622329132],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2025-04-06 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05045|CO-ALC-05045-2025-04-06-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6795","CO-ALC-05045|2023|Ordinary election|36","CO-ALC-05045|2019|Ordinary election|37"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05045|CO-ALC-05045-2025-04-06-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6795","CO-ALC-05045|2023|Ordinary election|36","CO-ALC-05045|2019|Ordinary election|37","CO-ALC-05045|2015|Ordinary election|38"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.5259863288505833,0.4065866706293187],[0.552462943846049,0.3618550476227576]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[40.65866706293187,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,59.34133293706813],null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05051","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Arboletes","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[23.507972665148067,0.8397200933022333,4.771817453963166],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05051|2023|Ordinary election|39","CO-ALC-05051|2019|Ordinary election|40","CO-ALC-05051|2015|Ordinary election|41"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05051|2023|Ordinary election|39","CO-ALC-05051|2019|Ordinary election|40","CO-ALC-05051|2015|Ordinary election|41"],"shares":[[0.6037097299056297,0.368630003254149],[0.4915028323892036,0.48310563145618124],[0.3849479583666933,0.33722978382706165]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":25.830593137620873,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,36.8630003254149,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,63.1369996745851],null,[0.06405124099279423,22.722177742193754,33.72297838270617,38.49479583666933,4.8919135308246595,0,0,0,0,0,0.10408326661329063]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05055","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Argelia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.38831291234684,5.232704402515722,13.107932379713915],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05055|2023|Ordinary election|42","CO-ALC-05055|2019|Ordinary election|43","CO-ALC-05055|2015|Ordinary election|44"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05055|2023|Ordinary election|42","CO-ALC-05055|2019|Ordinary election|43","CO-ALC-05055|2015|Ordinary election|44"],"shares":[[0.5405278039585297,0.45664467483506127],[0.5106918238993711,0.4583647798742138],[0.39375812743823146,0.2626788036410923]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":60.432038469328944,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[45.66446748350613,0,0,0,0,0.2827521206409048,0,0,0,0,54.05278039585297],[45.83647798742138,0,0,0,51.069182389937104,0,0,3.0943396226415096,0,0,0],[12.327698309492847,0,21.014304291287385,0.2340702210663199,26.26788036410923,39.37581274382315,0,0.7802340702210663,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":54.33553251649387,"volatility_previous":60.62418725617685,"volatility_mean":57.47985988633536,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05059","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Armenia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.828703703703702,0.7050528789659225,50.5104124132299],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05059|2023|Ordinary election|45","CO-ALC-05059|2019|Ordinary election|46","CO-ALC-05059|2015|Ordinary election|47"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05059|2023|Ordinary election|45","CO-ALC-05059|2019|Ordinary election|46","CO-ALC-05059|2015|Ordinary election|47"],"shares":[[0.44560185185185186,0.3773148148148148],[0.2659616137877007,0.2589110849980415],[0.6790526745610453,0.17394855042874643]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":53.201103363825055,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,44.56018518518518,0,17.708333333333332,0,0,0,0,0,37.73148148148148],[26.596161378770073,22.052487269878576,0,25.89110849980415,0,1.9976498237367804,4.386995691343517,0,0,0,19.075597336466902],[17.394855042874642,67.90526745610454,14.005716619028174,0,0.69416088199265,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":80.9244026635331,"volatility_previous":60.552657687246786,"volatility_mean":70.73853017538994,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05079","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Barbosa","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.4135078629215556,24.92064318051725,13.090841086539811],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05079|2023|Ordinary election|48","CO-ALC-05079|2019|Ordinary election|49","CO-ALC-05079|2015|Ordinary election|50"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05079|2023|Ordinary election|48","CO-ALC-05079|2019|Ordinary election|49","CO-ALC-05079|2015|Ordinary election|50"],"shares":[[0.3649213707844741,0.3507862921552586],[0.4535567466305875,0.204350314825415],[0.4016550563373697,0.2707466454719716]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":51.83309109718955,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,35.07862921552586,0,0,13.0624488682847,0,0,0,51.85892191618944],[20.4350314825415,0,0,16.792423375136597,5.297392933340272,0,0,0,0,0,57.475152208981626],[0,23.48403384917481,40.16550563373697,0,0,0,0,6.073215204076862,3.2025807658142034,0,27.07466454719716]],"volatility_latest":31.348654708673962,"volatility_previous":72.92533545280284,"volatility_mean":52.1369950807384,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05086","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Belmira","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[30.041724617524338,21.901840490797547,9.191295875284183],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05086|2023|Ordinary election|51","CO-ALC-05086|2019|Ordinary election|52","CO-ALC-05086|2015|Ordinary election|53"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05086|2023|Ordinary election|51","CO-ALC-05086|2019|Ordinary election|52","CO-ALC-05086|2015|Ordinary election|53"],"shares":[[0.5599443671766342,0.2595271210013908],[0.4625766871165644,0.24355828220858897],[0.5459564793764209,0.4540435206235791]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[55.99443671766342,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,44.00556328233658],[46.25766871165644,24.355828220858896,0,0.6134969325153374,0,23.834355828220858,0,4.938650306748467,0,0,0],[0,54.59564793764209,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,45.40435206235791,0]],"volatility_latest":53.74233128834356,"volatility_previous":75.6441717791411,"volatility_mean":64.69325153374233,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05088","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Bello","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.97749447469139,13.604820242231106,0.9920223588940331],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05088|2023|Ordinary election|54","CO-ALC-05088|2019|Ordinary election|55","CO-ALC-05088|2015|Ordinary election|56"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05088|2023|Ordinary election|54","CO-ALC-05088|2019|Ordinary election|55","CO-ALC-05088|2015|Ordinary election|56"],"shares":[[0.43139183871489406,0.38161689396798015],[0.3601250337399542,0.22407683131764317],[0.4187916062009076,0.40887138261196726]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":64.16427503313216,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0.4608915961403698,0,0,7.564282248935367,0,0.2344887068082583,0,0,91.74033744811601],[15.5377931022473,0,4.3814051493700426,0,36.01250337399542,0,4.2394796646030874,0,0,0,39.82881870978415],[0,0,0,0,40.887138261196725,10.99517041746328,4.782745567763881,0,1.4557851334853615,0,41.87916062009076]],"volatility_latest":59.710289694075485,"volatility_previous":19.919198251617342,"volatility_mean":39.814743972846415,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05091","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Betania","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.411099691675233,8.0,18.587581829002175],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05091|2023|Ordinary election|57","CO-ALC-05091|2019|Ordinary election|58","CO-ALC-05091|2015|Ordinary election|59"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05091|2023|Ordinary election|57","CO-ALC-05091|2019|Ordinary election|58","CO-ALC-05091|2015|Ordinary election|59"],"shares":[[0.523535457348407,0.3194244604316547],[0.4501075268817204,0.3701075268817204],[0.5929379091450109,0.4070620908549891]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":17.472910010473207,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,4.795698924731183,0,45.01075268817204,0,0,0,0,50.19354838709677],[0,40.70620908549891,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,59.29379091450109]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":49.806451612903224,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05093","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Betulia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[21.525633106856084,33.593989573750385,8.31637103809247],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05093|2023|Ordinary election|60","CO-ALC-05093|2019|Ordinary election|61","CO-ALC-05093|2015|Ordinary election|62"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05093|2023|Ordinary election|60","CO-ALC-05093|2019|Ordinary election|61","CO-ALC-05093|2015|Ordinary election|62"],"shares":[[0.5134342186534898,0.29817788758492897],[0.5785035265256057,0.2425636307881018],[0.47455655713870315,0.39139284675777847]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,29.817788758492895,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,70.1822112415071],[0,0,0,0,24.256363078810182,12.84881938055811,0,0,0,0,62.89481754063171],[47.455655713870314,39.139284675777844,0,0,0.05815644082582146,0,0,0,0,0,13.346903169526025]],"volatility_latest":37.10518245936829,"volatility_previous":86.59494038964816,"volatility_mean":61.850061424508226,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05101","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Bolivar","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[24.08495255309535,24.168744804655027,8.251996450754216],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05101|2023|Ordinary election|63","CO-ALC-05101|2019|Ordinary election|64","CO-ALC-05101|2015|Ordinary election|65"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05101|2023|Ordinary election|63","CO-ALC-05101|2019|Ordinary election|64","CO-ALC-05101|2015|Ordinary election|65"],"shares":[[0.6204247627654768,0.37957523723452324],[0.5571487946799667,0.31546134663341646],[0.38982549541555755,0.3073055309080154]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,37.957523723452326,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,62.042476276547674],[0,8.32294264339152,0,0,55.714879467996674,0,4.416043225270158,0,0,0,31.546134663341647],[10.342107857635808,0,14.19698314108252,0,38.982549541555755,5.7478063689243815,0,0,0,0,30.73055309080154]],"volatility_latest":60.13092269326683,"volatility_previous":30.28689736764271,"volatility_mean":45.208910030454774,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05107","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Briceño","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[51.167915381225214,31.30193905817174,24.654886802871342],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05107|2023|Ordinary election|66","CO-ALC-05107|2019|Ordinary election|67","CO-ALC-05107|2015|Ordinary election|68"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05107|2023|Ordinary election|66","CO-ALC-05107|2019|Ordinary election|67","CO-ALC-05107|2015|Ordinary election|68"],"shares":[[0.75165271044513,0.23997355663287792],[0.6565096952908587,0.3434903047091413],[0.5251242407509663,0.2785753727222529]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,23.99735566328779,0,0.8373732921992068,0,0,0,0,75.165271044513],null,[14.467145223633352,52.51242407509663,5.162893429044726,0,0,0,27.85753727222529,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05113","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Buritica","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.024564183835182,28.087269646261387,5.147563486616335],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05113|2023|Ordinary election|69","CO-ALC-05113|2019|Ordinary election|70","CO-ALC-05113|2015|Ordinary election|71"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05113|2023|Ordinary election|69","CO-ALC-05113|2019|Ordinary election|70","CO-ALC-05113|2015|Ordinary election|71"],"shares":[[0.4221473851030111,0.3019017432646593],[0.599661088752383,0.31878839228976913],[0.5136124456646076,0.46213681079844426]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":19.221621235794206,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,42.21473851030111,23.692551505546753,0,0,1.4857369255150554,30.19017432646593,0,0,0,2.4167987321711566],[31.87883922897691,59.9661088752383,0,0,8.15505189578479,0,0,0,0,0,0],[51.36124456646076,46.21368107984443,0,0,0,2.4250743536948067,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":57.78526148969889,"volatility_previous":21.907479691178658,"volatility_mean":39.846370590438774,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05120","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Caceres","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[21.66523605150215,0.03018108651911433,21.188308576904646],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05120|2023|Ordinary election|72","CO-ALC-05120|2019|Ordinary election|73","CO-ALC-05120|2015|Ordinary election|74"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05120|2023|Ordinary election|72","CO-ALC-05120|2019|Ordinary election|73","CO-ALC-05120|2015|Ordinary election|74"],"shares":[[0.6083261802575107,0.39167381974248927],[0.38611670020120725,0.3858148893360161],[0.5574508864398658,0.3455678006708194]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":24.364865927262557,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[21.599597585513077,38.61167002012073,0,0,0,0,0,1.2072434607645874,0,38.58148893360161,0],[1.0445615716339243,34.55678006708194,55.745088643986584,0,0,0.24916147580258743,0,0,0,8.404408241494968,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":55.99425011978917,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05125","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Caicedo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[24.954086317722684,27.658045977011497,3.17721172281567],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05125|2023|Ordinary election|75","CO-ALC-05125|2019|Ordinary election|76","CO-ALC-05125|2015|Ordinary election|77"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05125|2023|Ordinary election|75","CO-ALC-05125|2019|Ordinary election|76","CO-ALC-05125|2015|Ordinary election|77"],"shares":[[0.5679522497704316,0.3184113865932048],[0.5433429118773947,0.2667624521072797],[0.36866611887154205,0.33689400164338534]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,18.989463601532567,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,81.01053639846744],[1.1229800054779513,28.321007943029308,0,0,36.86661188715421,0,0,33.68940016433854,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":81.01053639846744,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05129","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Caldas","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.995120447891523,7.459557469473324,1.6485586886893167],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05129|2023|Ordinary election|78","CO-ALC-05129|2019|Ordinary election|79","CO-ALC-05129|2015|Ordinary election|80"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05129|2023|Ordinary election|78","CO-ALC-05129|2019|Ordinary election|79","CO-ALC-05129|2015|Ordinary election|80"],"shares":[[0.33198931634906775,0.28203811187015254],[0.31328441510609967,0.23868884041136643],[0.2536582302329963,0.23717264334610313]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":73.00102310777079,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.39806872463917,0,0,0,0,0,21.834711592788537,0,0,0,77.76721968257229],[0,18.78063291497861,31.328441510609967,23.868884041136642,7.496387794996742,11.471229849562286,0,0,0,0,7.054423888715755],[15.405388431828174,25.36582302329963,23.717264334610313,21.84889782076242,8.31501601457012,0.3234315141619042,0,0,0,0,5.024178860767443]],"volatility_latest":92.94557611128424,"volatility_previous":22.80920675972257,"volatility_mean":57.877391435503405,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05134","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Campamento","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.723819045238692,19.422233685839572,10.228962236098724],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05134|2023|Ordinary election|81","CO-ALC-05134|2019|Ordinary election|82","CO-ALC-05134|2015|Ordinary election|83"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05134|2023|Ordinary election|81","CO-ALC-05134|2019|Ordinary election|82","CO-ALC-05134|2015|Ordinary election|83"],"shares":[[0.45638590352411895,0.40914771307173203],[0.5971111684291979,0.40288883157080213],[0.5349390425215581,0.4326494201605709]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":51.580711217475205,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05138|2023|Ordinary election|84","CO-ALC-05138|2019|Ordinary election|85","CO-ALC-05138|2015|Ordinary election|86"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05138|2023|Ordinary election|84","CO-ALC-05138|2019|Ordinary election|85","CO-ALC-05138|2015|Ordinary election|86"],"shares":[[0.5168894785182162,0.47443616695581187],[0.5417060491493384,0.35408790170132326],[0.7191954176102304,0.2808045823897696]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":37.201742653053394,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0.3367690580671497,0,0.27553832023675884,0,0,0,99.3876926216961],[35.40879017013233,0,0,0,10.219754253308128,0,0.14177693761814744,0,0.05907372400756144,0,54.17060491493384],[71.91954176102304,28.080458238976956,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":45.35084908938087,"volatility_previous":64.59120982986768,"volatility_mean":54.971029459624276,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05142","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Caracoli","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[29.22728742321371,3.9487726787620048,27.12369597615499],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05142|2023|Ordinary election|87","CO-ALC-05142|2019|Ordinary election|88","CO-ALC-05142|2015|Ordinary election|89"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05142|2023|Ordinary election|87","CO-ALC-05142|2019|Ordinary election|88","CO-ALC-05142|2015|Ordinary election|89"],"shares":[[0.6456514710636923,0.35337859683155515],[0.34400569192458197,0.30451796513696194],[0.5193740685543964,0.24813710879284648]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09699321047526673,0,0,0,99.90300678952474],[34.4005691924582,8.431163287086447,0,11.953041622198507,30.451796513696195,0,0,0,0,0,14.763429384560654],[51.93740685543964,0,0,15.536512667660208,24.81371087928465,7.712369597615499,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":85.23657061543935,"volatility_previous":28.832678306058643,"volatility_mean":57.034624460748994,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05145","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Caramanta","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[24.08107179663346,38.71847307430129,24.01774397972116],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05145|2023|Ordinary election|90","CO-ALC-05145|2019|Ordinary election|91","CO-ALC-05145|2015|Ordinary election|92"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05145|2023|Ordinary election|90","CO-ALC-05145|2019|Ordinary election|91","CO-ALC-05145|2015|Ordinary election|92"],"shares":[[0.5874270010305737,0.3466162830642391],[0.6826857532379005,0.2955010224948875],[0.6200887198986058,0.3799112801013942]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[34.66162830642391,0,0,0,0,0,6.595671590518722,0,0,0,58.742700103057366],[0,0,0,0,0,2.1813224267212,0,0,0,0,97.81867757327879],[37.99112801013942,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,62.00887198986058]],"volatility_latest":41.25729989694263,"volatility_previous":37.99112801013941,"volatility_mean":39.624213953541016,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05147","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Carepa","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.32345013477088713,9.477264898380984,13.4260140925538],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05147|2023|Ordinary election|93","CO-ALC-05147|2019|Ordinary election|94","CO-ALC-05147|2015|Ordinary election|95"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05147|2023|Ordinary election|93","CO-ALC-05147|2019|Ordinary election|94","CO-ALC-05147|2015|Ordinary election|95"],"shares":[[0.2739788513373419,0.27074434998963304],[0.3113589390285911,0.21658629004478125],[0.3401733003237479,0.20591315939820987]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":78.10074520183896,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[3.1805929919137466,0,2.4631971801783124,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,94.35620982790795],[21.658629004478126,31.13589390285911,0,0.8999311057526697,11.724939717533585,8.973475714777816,0,0,1.2530141233207026,0,24.354116431277987],[0,20.591315939820987,20.419920015235192,1.9234431536850123,1.2616644448676442,0,12.930870310417063,0,0,7.779470577032946,35.09331555894116]],"volatility_latest":72.46529057680827,"volatility_previous":52.892972078280714,"volatility_mean":62.679131327544496,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05148","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Carmen De Viboral","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.546212206151662,14.656476069808313,2.3940173845481496],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05148|2023|Ordinary election|96","CO-ALC-05148|2019|Ordinary election|97","CO-ALC-05148|2015|Ordinary election|98"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05148|2023|Ordinary election|96","CO-ALC-05148|2019|Ordinary election|97","CO-ALC-05148|2015|Ordinary election|98"],"shares":[[0.247524012407968,0.19206189034645138],[0.4817509298238443,0.3351861691257612],[0.3854707910455009,0.36153061720001944]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":60.17964058455847,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,33.51861691257612,0,18.30629010503944,0,0,0,0,48.175092982384434],[0,36.15306172000194,38.54707910455009,15.553828971009567,2.3260331180498226,6.550769679017142,0,0,0.8692274073714369,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":77.8954013499733,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05150","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Carolina","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.708839960565232,1.6847622613253463,24.604370761115298],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05150|2023|Ordinary election|99","CO-ALC-05150|2019|Ordinary election|100","CO-ALC-05150|2015|Ordinary election|101"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05150|2023|Ordinary election|99","CO-ALC-05150|2019|Ordinary election|100","CO-ALC-05150|2015|Ordinary election|101"],"shares":[[0.31843575418994413,0.3013473545842918],[0.3878697117184575,0.371022089105204],[0.4996232102486812,0.25357950263752826]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":80.04415134575864,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[31.843575418994412,0,0,0,0,6.210976010515938,0,0,0,0,61.945448570489646],[17.895919131411457,38.78697117184575,5.765630849868963,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.44926993635342566,37.1022089105204],[8.854559155990957,0,0,25.357950263752826,0.33911077618688773,0,49.962321024868125,0,0,0,15.486058779201207]],"volatility_latest":45.001871958068136,"volatility_previous":75.65938206480783,"volatility_mean":60.33062701143798,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05154","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Caucasia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.537478064677863,10.422343324250683,30.913453490318616],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05154|2023|Ordinary election|102","CO-ALC-05154|2019|Ordinary election|103","CO-ALC-05154|2015|Ordinary election|104"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05154|2023|Ordinary election|102","CO-ALC-05154|2019|Ordinary election|103","CO-ALC-05154|2015|Ordinary election|104"],"shares":[[0.3147906743544748,0.26941589370769614],[0.4219503248794802,0.3177268916369734],[0.571759388426985,0.2626248535237989]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":55.297324074431074,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05172","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Chigorodo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.917979874691476,17.828638993285754,21.12433178134161],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05172|2023|Ordinary election|105","CO-ALC-05172|2019|Ordinary election|106","CO-ALC-05172|2015|Ordinary election|107"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05172|2023|Ordinary election|105","CO-ALC-05172|2019|Ordinary election|106","CO-ALC-05172|2015|Ordinary election|107"],"shares":[[0.4498955762293526,0.2907157774824378],[0.4192390524048815,0.240952662472024],[0.4028280738058286,0.1915847559924125]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":14.940935995326132,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,44.98955762293526,0,0,0,55.01044237706474],[0,0,0,0,9.737764452514675,5.662767619610658,16.882732992694564,24.0952662472024,0,0,43.6214686879777],[0,19.15847559924125,0,0,12.834109329194689,18.75323331608898,0,7.100362131401966,0,0,42.153819624073115]],"volatility_latest":39.49579831932773,"volatility_previous":35.34528617239958,"volatility_mean":37.42054224586366,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05190","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Cisneros","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[21.85384721646636,39.60923623445825,11.73396674584323],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05190|2023|Ordinary election|108","CO-ALC-05190|2019|Ordinary election|109","CO-ALC-05190|2015|Ordinary election|110"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05190|2023|Ordinary election|108","CO-ALC-05190|2019|Ordinary election|109","CO-ALC-05190|2015|Ordinary election|110"],"shares":[[0.491366210802597,0.2728277386379334],[0.6980461811722912,0.3019538188277087],[0.41187648456057,0.29453681710213775]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,7.293825113966017,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,92.70617488603398],[0,0,0,30.19538188277087,0,0,0,0,0,0,69.80461811722913],[25.938242280285035,29.453681710213775,0,41.187648456057005,0.5542359461599367,2.866191607284244,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":30.19538188277087,"volatility_previous":69.80461811722913,"volatility_mean":50.0,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05197","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Cocorna","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.587547763542368,6.725622527344662,6.107072042300068],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05197|2023|Ordinary election|111","CO-ALC-05197|2019|Ordinary election|112","CO-ALC-05197|2015|Ordinary election|113"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05197|2023|Ordinary election|111","CO-ALC-05197|2019|Ordinary election|112","CO-ALC-05197|2015|Ordinary election|113"],"shares":[[0.4098673859294223,0.26399190829399866],[0.40190830812194556,0.33465208284849896],[0.48896232650363514,0.4278916060806345]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":43.09538689720587,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[33.46520828484989,0,0,40.190830812194555,0,0,0,0,0,0,26.34396090295555],[42.78916060806345,0,0,48.896232650363515,8.314606741573034,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":26.34396090295555,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05206","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Concepcion","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.235387045813585,22.04867417362877,46.63003663003663],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05206|2023|Ordinary election|114","CO-ALC-05206|2019|Ordinary election|115","CO-ALC-05206|2015|Ordinary election|116"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05206|2023|Ordinary election|114","CO-ALC-05206|2019|Ordinary election|115","CO-ALC-05206|2015|Ordinary election|116"],"shares":[[0.3257503949447077,0.25339652448657185],[0.6102433708681438,0.38975662913185616],[0.6498168498168497,0.1835164835164835]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":21.905809287097778,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[19.557661927330173,25.339652448657187,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,55.102685624012636],[0,0,0,61.024337086814384,0,0,0,0,0,0,38.975662913185616],[18.35164835164835,14.065934065934066,2.600732600732601,0,64.98168498168498,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":61.024337086814384,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":80.5121685434072,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05209","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Concordia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.64505119453925,20.50435304713299,5.999160956509584],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05209|2023|Ordinary election|117","CO-ALC-05209|2019|Ordinary election|118","CO-ALC-05209|2015|Ordinary election|119"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05209|2023|Ordinary election|117","CO-ALC-05209|2019|Ordinary election|118","CO-ALC-05209|2015|Ordinary election|119"],"shares":[[0.3901706484641638,0.2737201365187713],[0.5214650255178624,0.31642149504653255],[0.5299958047825479,0.47000419521745207]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":31.30873636742797,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,24.996587030716725,0,0,0,75.00341296928327],[0,31.642149504653258,10.462323626538577,0,52.14650255178625,0,0,0,0,5.749024317021916,0],[0,47.00041952174521,0,0,52.99958047825479,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":100.0,"volatility_previous":16.211347943560494,"volatility_mean":58.10567397178025,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05212","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Copacabana","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.591175831341012,2.760078514268457,29.947212141207523],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05212|2023|Ordinary election|120","CO-ALC-05212|2019|Ordinary election|121","CO-ALC-05212|2015|Ordinary election|122"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05212|2023|Ordinary election|120","CO-ALC-05212|2019|Ordinary election|121","CO-ALC-05212|2015|Ordinary election|122"],"shares":[[0.3646218213431862,0.3087100630297761],[0.321274346972671,0.2936735618299864],[0.6381062355658199,0.33863411415374467]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":64.11274866397052,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,2.2980522421863205,0,4.541748452362977,13.730937641552167,1.7303336856409481,0,77.69892797825757],[0.3563180468492247,33.863411415374465,63.81062355658199,0,0,0,1.9696469811943254,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":98.03035301880567,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05234","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Dabeiba","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.811279826464208,16.002327611288916,16.583148817154175],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05234|2023|Ordinary election|123","CO-ALC-05234|2019|Ordinary election|124","CO-ALC-05234|2015|Ordinary election|125"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05234|2023|Ordinary election|123","CO-ALC-05234|2019|Ordinary election|124","CO-ALC-05234|2015|Ordinary election|125"],"shares":[[0.5566702819956616,0.3885574837310195],[0.4393366307826593,0.27931335466977014],[0.4361962475235986,0.27036475935205684]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":17.271094695096924,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0.5061460592913956,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,99.4938539407086],[0,27.931335466977014,0,0,2.531277276694792,0,0,0,0,0,69.5373872563282],[0,43.61962475235986,27.036475935205686,0,0,0,22.433282834168512,0,0,0,6.910616478265936]],"volatility_latest":30.4626127436718,"volatility_previous":65.15804805475705,"volatility_mean":47.81033039921442,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05237","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Don Matias","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[29.970858551894196,3.056903852111951,30.344049633389737],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05237|2023|Ordinary election|126","CO-ALC-05237|2019|Ordinary election|127","CO-ALC-05237|2015|Ordinary election|128"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05237|2023|Ordinary election|126","CO-ALC-05237|2019|Ordinary election|127","CO-ALC-05237|2015|Ordinary election|128"],"shares":[[0.5147948890383323,0.21508630351939026],[0.4159867809563152,0.38541774243519566],[0.6498589960518895,0.3464184997179921]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[16.577000672494957,0,21.508630351939026,0,51.47948890383322,2.757229320780094,0,0,0,0,7.677650750952701],[0,0,0,19.85954766084891,0,0,0,0,0,0,80.1404523391511],[34.64184997179921,0,0,0,0.37225042301184436,0,64.98589960518895,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":92.3223492490473,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":96.16117462452365,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05240","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Ebejico","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.162707838479811,32.118561710398446,17.85147572199302],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05240|2023|Ordinary election|129","CO-ALC-05240|2019|Ordinary election|130","CO-ALC-05240|2015|Ordinary election|131"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05240|2023|Ordinary election|129","CO-ALC-05240|2019|Ordinary election|130","CO-ALC-05240|2015|Ordinary election|131"],"shares":[[0.42354513064133015,0.28191805225653205],[0.6276320051830256,0.3064463880790412],[0.41605839416058393,0.23754363694065375]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0.40829605796638413,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[8.625296912114015,0,0,0,0,0,20.828384798099762,0,0,0,70.54631828978623],[0,0,0,6.154842889536767,62.76320051830256,0,0,0,0,0,31.081956592160676],[22.580133291018726,41.605839416058394,0,23.754363694065376,4.982545223738495,0.36496350364963503,0,0,0,0,6.712154871469375]],"volatility_latest":68.91804340783932,"volatility_previous":82.15045701525537,"volatility_mean":75.53425021154735,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05250","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"El Bagre","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.238921001926784,8.798147758366657,24.74030648976653],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05250|2023|Ordinary election|132","CO-ALC-05250|2019|Ordinary election|133","CO-ALC-05250|2015|Ordinary election|134"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05250|2023|Ordinary election|132","CO-ALC-05250|2019|Ordinary election|133","CO-ALC-05250|2015|Ordinary election|134"],"shares":[[0.4076319375910522,0.3652427275717844],[0.2726268154072827,0.18464533782361608],[0.5653090609894066,0.31790599609174125]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":61.7158621117864,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0.3430612340805489,0,0,0,40.76319375910522,0,0,0,0,58.893745006814235],[0,18.46453378236161,18.264575878762365,0,27.262681540728266,0,0.5998737107977268,18.10145232582614,11.850136813302463,0.17890970322037467,5.277836245001052],[0,0,31.790599609174123,1.4090301347320786,0,0,10.269464157153141,0,0,0,56.530906098940655]],"volatility_latest":94.3791025209184,"volatility_previous":75.85771416543885,"volatility_mean":85.11840834317863,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05264","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Entrerrios","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.869080779944291,9.209248105692637,38.960462016881394],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05264|2023|Ordinary election|135","CO-ALC-05264|2019|Ordinary election|136","CO-ALC-05264|2015|Ordinary election|137"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05264|2023|Ordinary election|135","CO-ALC-05264|2019|Ordinary election|136","CO-ALC-05264|2015|Ordinary election|137"],"shares":[[0.31441504178272983,0.2357242339832869],[0.35962696716533904,0.2675344861084127],[0.657041314971124,0.2674366948023101]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":43.09865449318748,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,22.231894150417826,0,0,0,0,0,77.76810584958217],[26.753448610841268,0,23.139693025063142,0,5.9840683893530215,0,8.160093258208665,0,0,0,35.962696716533905],[0,0,0,0,0,0,7.552199022656597,0,0,0,92.4478009773434]],"volatility_latest":58.053234894113075,"volatility_previous":56.4851042608095,"volatility_mean":57.269169577461284,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05266","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Envigado","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.824534863160377,20.51964146448298,11.640934113194561],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05266|2023|Ordinary election|138","CO-ALC-05266|2019|Ordinary election|139","CO-ALC-05266|2015|Ordinary election|140"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05266|2023|Ordinary election|138","CO-ALC-05266|2019|Ordinary election|139","CO-ALC-05266|2015|Ordinary election|140"],"shares":[[0.46037250240672706,0.2721271537751233],[0.4847494204245591,0.2795530057797293],[0.4078143815585756,0.29140504042662996]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":6.92646615719712,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,27.21271537751233,0,0,0,0,0,72.78728462248768],[0,0,0,0,27.955300577972928,9.312735702915505,0,0,1.8257961817463115,0,60.906167537365256],[0,40.78143815585756,25.748322724926886,0,29.140504042662997,1.9912265611560296,1.0009891622226046,0,1.3375193531739205,0,0]],"volatility_latest":11.881117085122417,"volatility_previous":68.71595350769712,"volatility_mean":40.29853529640977,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05282","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Fredonia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.9900383936909805,6.014111322656511,16.717291033862075],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05282|2023|Ordinary election|141","CO-ALC-05282|2019|Ordinary election|142","CO-ALC-05282|2015|Ordinary election|143"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05282|2023|Ordinary election|141","CO-ALC-05282|2019|Ordinary election|142","CO-ALC-05282|2015|Ordinary election|143"],"shares":[[0.4627996264397634,0.3828992425028536],[0.35502295889797286,0.2948818456714078],[0.43806952413094835,0.2708966137923276]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":58.65007231801125,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[1.9039086123866054,0,29.488184567140777,0,2.071900548773659,0,1.814312912980177,0,0,0,64.72169335871878],[27.08966137923276,43.806952413094834,16.537293283833954,0,1.9124760940488243,5.073686578917764,0,2.1599730003374957,0.8437394532568343,0.26999662504218697,2.306221172235347]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":77.34010083749527,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05284","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Frontino","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.7128547579298825,5.8849557522123845,2.094804883887953],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05284|2023|Ordinary election|144","CO-ALC-05284|2019|Ordinary election|145","CO-ALC-05284|2015|Ordinary election|146"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05284|2023|Ordinary election|144","CO-ALC-05284|2019|Ordinary election|145","CO-ALC-05284|2015|Ordinary election|146"],"shares":[[0.36293823038397327,0.28580968280467445],[0.5055309734513274,0.4466814159292036],[0.34929375149628916,0.32834570265740964]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":66.9865996559478,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05306","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Giraldo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.815330129015933,10.120979640011804,2.59605399792315],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05306|2023|Ordinary election|147","CO-ALC-05306|2019|Ordinary election|148","CO-ALC-05306|2015|Ordinary election|149"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05306|2023|Ordinary election|147","CO-ALC-05306|2019|Ordinary election|148","CO-ALC-05306|2015|Ordinary election|149"],"shares":[[0.4416898558057171,0.3435365545155578],[0.5390970787843021,0.4378872823841842],[0.5129802699896158,0.48701973001038423]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":54.07451315397292,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[53.90970787843022,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,46.09029212156979],[0,0,0,48.701973001038425,0,0,0,0,0,0,51.298026998961575]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":53.90970787843021,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05308","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Girardota","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.4437776825260755,17.59835970443731,10.419006479481645],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05308|2023|Ordinary election|150","CO-ALC-05308|2019|Ordinary election|151","CO-ALC-05308|2015|Ordinary election|152"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05308|2023|Ordinary election|150","CO-ALC-05308|2019|Ordinary election|151","CO-ALC-05308|2015|Ordinary election|152"],"shares":[[0.47138876982426064,0.40695099299899984],[0.4162636852489458,0.2402800882045727],[0.42764578833693306,0.3234557235421166]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":49.06162415602498,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,10.012144592084583,1.4287755393627661,0,0,0,0.3250464352050293,0,88.23403343334762],[0,0,0,0,0,15.184339819722233,0,0.541607025416844,0,0,84.27405315486092],[32.34557235421166,0,0,0,0,0,24.652267818574515,0,0,0,43.00215982721382]],"volatility_latest":15.725946845139076,"volatility_previous":56.99784017278618,"volatility_mean":36.36189350896262,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05310","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Gomez Plata","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.438330170777984,15.053550178500593,22.320302648171502],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05310|2023|Ordinary election|153","CO-ALC-05310|2019|Ordinary election|154","CO-ALC-05310|2015|Ordinary election|155"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05310|2023|Ordinary election|153","CO-ALC-05310|2019|Ordinary election|154","CO-ALC-05310|2015|Ordinary election|155"],"shares":[[0.3829222011385199,0.30853889943074003],[0.5368901229670765,0.3863546211820706],[0.4800336275746112,0.2568306010928962]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":43.94453289582941,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[38.29222011385199,0,0,0,0,0,14.117647058823529,0,0,0,47.590132827324474],[38.63546211820706,0,0,0,0,0,7.675525585085284,0,0,0,53.68901229670765],[48.00336275746112,25.683060109289617,21.94199243379571,0,4.0773434216057165,0,0,0,0,0,0.2942412778478352]],"volatility_latest":6.442121473738246,"volatility_previous":61.0702966039451,"volatility_mean":33.756209038841675,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05313","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Granada","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[19.364390051322545,18.59983429991715,64.90331184707713],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05313|2023|Ordinary election|156","CO-ALC-05313|2019|Ordinary election|157","CO-ALC-05313|2015|Ordinary election|158"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05313|2023|Ordinary election|156","CO-ALC-05313|2019|Ordinary election|157","CO-ALC-05313|2015|Ordinary election|158"],"shares":[[0.49269640742202925,0.2990525069088038],[0.5911350455675227,0.40513670256835127],[0.8010669037563903,0.15203378528561903]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[49.269640742202924,0,6.040268456375839,0,10.382945124358468,0,0,0,0,0,34.30714567706277],[0,0.3728251864125932,0,59.113504556752275,0,0,0,0,0,0,40.51367025683513],[80.10669037563903,0,0,0,0,0,4.689931095799066,15.203378528561903,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":65.69285432293722,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":82.84642716146861,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05315","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Guadalupe","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.5131179232256287,4.251126126126131,8.8052179069078],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05315|2023|Ordinary election|159","CO-ALC-05315|2019|Ordinary election|160","CO-ALC-05315|2015|Ordinary election|161"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05315|2023|Ordinary election|159","CO-ALC-05315|2019|Ordinary election|160","CO-ALC-05315|2015|Ordinary election|161"],"shares":[[0.4109362054681027,0.38580502623584645],[0.4228603603603604,0.3803490990990991],[0.544026089534539,0.455973910465461]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":81.68134808768002,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,41.09362054681027,0,15.631041148853908,0,4.694835680751174,0,0,0,0,38.58050262358464],[38.034909909909906,42.28603603603604,0,0,0,19.679054054054053,0,0,0,0,0],[54.4026089534539,45.5973910465461,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":54.21154377243855,"volatility_previous":19.679054054054056,"volatility_mean":36.945298913246305,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05318","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Guarne","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.9934640522875817,10.376026127637036,11.082138200782268],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05318|2023|Ordinary election|162","CO-ALC-05318|2019|Ordinary election|163","CO-ALC-05318|2015|Ordinary election|164"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05318|2023|Ordinary election|162","CO-ALC-05318|2019|Ordinary election|163","CO-ALC-05318|2015|Ordinary election|164"],"shares":[[0.23443510737628384,0.22450046685340802],[0.2754435519463324,0.17168329066996205],[0.426232073011734,0.31541069100391134]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":75.91449955129058,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[7.043884220354808,0,0,3.099906629318394,0,11.450980392156863,22.4500466853408,0.7133520074696545,0,0,55.24183006535947],[13.633153852943773,0,12.366493070880042,0,0,0,11.554417865654514,0.7458734221908376,0,10.667313972989673,51.03274781534116],[0,22.48761408083442,31.541069100391134,0,3.348109517601043,0,0,0,0,0,42.6232073011734]],"volatility_latest":29.655598091179858,"volatility_previous":45.01029962794656,"volatility_mean":37.33294885956321,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05321","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Guatape","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[34.227077126779214,9.884063666732168,3.465562336530077],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05321|2023|Ordinary election|165","CO-ALC-05321|2019|Ordinary election|166","CO-ALC-05321|2015|Ordinary election|167"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05321|2023|Ordinary election|165","CO-ALC-05321|2019|Ordinary election|166","CO-ALC-05321|2015|Ordinary election|167"],"shares":[[0.6135385633896061,0.27126779212181396],[0.4281784240518766,0.32933778738455494],[0.3960331299040976,0.36137750653879686]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[2.7117311849086265,0,0,0,32.933778738455494,0,0,0,0,0,64.35449007663588],[0,0,0,0,39.60331299040976,0,0,0,0,0,60.39668700959024]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":6.6695342519542695,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05347","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Heliconia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.462284227949866,7.3766094420600865,19.14607948442535],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05347|2023|Ordinary election|168","CO-ALC-05347|2019|Ordinary election|169","CO-ALC-05347|2015|Ordinary election|170"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05347|2023|Ordinary election|168","CO-ALC-05347|2019|Ordinary election|169","CO-ALC-05347|2015|Ordinary election|170"],"shares":[[0.5273114211397494,0.4726885788602507],[0.5005364806866953,0.4267703862660944],[0.5934479054779807,0.4019871106337272]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":62.975193410847595,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,52.73114211397493,0,0,0,0,47.26885788602507],[0,50.05364806866953,0.5364806866952789,42.677038626609445,0,6.732832618025751,0,0,0,0,0],[0,59.34479054779807,0.4564983888292159,0,40.19871106337272,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":93.26716738197425,"volatility_previous":49.48985354250126,"volatility_mean":71.37851046223776,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05353","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Hispania","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.1337126600284506,12.791813239526704,0.9869468322190329],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05353|2023|Ordinary election|171","CO-ALC-05353|2019|Ordinary election|172","CO-ALC-05353|2015|Ordinary election|173"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05353|2023|Ordinary election|171","CO-ALC-05353|2019|Ordinary election|172","CO-ALC-05353|2015|Ordinary election|173"],"shares":[[0.4318634423897582,0.4105263157894737],[0.44451551007355294,0.3165973776782859],[0.5049347341610951,0.4950652658389048]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":73.91766874451507,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.2190611664295874,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,3.015647226173542,0,94.76529160739686],[7.00351774864087,0,31.659737767828588,4.029421170450911,10.041573393028461,2.494403581707707,0.3197953309881676,0,0,0,44.45155100735529],[50.49347341610952,49.50652658389048,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":53.32938782621511,"volatility_previous":92.99648225135913,"volatility_mean":73.16293503878711,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05360","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Itagui","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.74823831920191,33.59241411472097,33.83226508760241],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05360|2023|Ordinary election|174","CO-ALC-05360|2019|Ordinary election|175","CO-ALC-05360|2015|Ordinary election|176"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05360|2023|Ordinary election|174","CO-ALC-05360|2019|Ordinary election|175","CO-ALC-05360|2015|Ordinary election|176"],"shares":[[0.37328103894413067,0.2757986557521116],[0.5490897120545716,0.21316557090736185],[0.5394562738713038,0.2011336229952797]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":3.4505313265116078,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0.7754650349081322,27.57986557521116,0,0,0,71.6446693898807],[54.908971205457156,0,0,0,21.316557090736186,0,0,0,0,0,23.774471703806658],[53.94562738713038,0,0,0,13.436435468886366,0,11.05657792250448,0,1.4479969219508075,0,20.11336229952797]],"volatility_latest":76.22552829619335,"volatility_previous":12.504574844455286,"volatility_mean":44.36505157032432,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05361","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Ituango","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[26.222347470762294,0.2720504009163811,36.2970044614404],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05361|2023|Ordinary election|177","CO-ALC-05361|2019|Ordinary election|178","CO-ALC-05361|2015|Ordinary election|179"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05361|2023|Ordinary election|177","CO-ALC-05361|2019|Ordinary election|178","CO-ALC-05361|2015|Ordinary election|179"],"shares":[[0.49457517260814426,0.23235169790052132],[0.2359679266895762,0.23324742268041238],[0.681485022307202,0.31851497769279796]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":2.776379755618341,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,3.6776102578554317,0,0,0,0,22.403832605326194,0,0,0,73.91855713681838],[15.392325315005728,8.719931271477662,23.59679266895762,23.324742268041238,17.081901489117985,2.20504009163803,5.770332187857961,2.720504009163803,1.188430698739977,0,0],[31.851497769279796,68.1485022307202,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":90.5520575542866,"volatility_previous":75.8877434135166,"volatility_mean":83.2199004839016,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05364","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Jardin","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.022364217252399,31.01828339258507,2.2065313327449303],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05364|2023|Ordinary election|180","CO-ALC-05364|2019|Ordinary election|181","CO-ALC-05364|2015|Ordinary election|182"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05364|2023|Ordinary election|180","CO-ALC-05364|2019|Ordinary election|181","CO-ALC-05364|2015|Ordinary election|182"],"shares":[[0.3656230031948882,0.3153993610223642],[0.5308532249873033,0.22067039106145253],[0.5110326566637247,0.48896734333627534]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":37.302216592992735,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[14.006389776357828,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.051118210862619806,0,0,85.94249201277957],[17.29304215337735,0,22.067039106145252,0,53.08532249873032,0,0,7.554596241747079,0,0,0],[51.103265666372465,0,0,0,48.896734333627535,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":85.94249201277957,"volatility_previous":33.810223512995115,"volatility_mean":59.87635776288734,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05368","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Jerico","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.735919007557392,9.62286740496857,3.014044500552309],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05368|2023|Ordinary election|183","CO-ALC-05368|2019|Ordinary election|184","CO-ALC-05368|2015|Ordinary election|185"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05368|2023|Ordinary election|183","CO-ALC-05368|2019|Ordinary election|184","CO-ALC-05368|2015|Ordinary election|185"],"shares":[[0.42250106944246396,0.38514187936689004],[0.3665070338222089,0.2702783597725232],[0.3427489348272053,0.3126084898216822]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":72.85091961959881,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.7824041066590617,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.0551832311421645,0,97.16241266219879],[0,36.65070338222089,9.802454354983539,0,0.49386411254115536,0,0,0,0,0,53.05297815025441],[34.27489348272053,3.408552943032981,0,31.26084898216822,31.05570459207827,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":46.947021849745596,"volatility_previous":96.09758294442587,"volatility_mean":71.52230239708572,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05376","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"La Ceja","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.595918591255689,8.943276706017851,17.78651924303636],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05376|2023|Ordinary election|186","CO-ALC-05376|2019|Ordinary election|187","CO-ALC-05376|2015|Ordinary election|188"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05376|2023|Ordinary election|186","CO-ALC-05376|2019|Ordinary election|187","CO-ALC-05376|2015|Ordinary election|188"],"shares":[[0.28013056119370233,0.24417137528114544],[0.3590555715519724,0.2696228044917939],[0.5670848394641719,0.38921964703380824]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":66.90406954568797,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,23.149925942180044,0,0,76.85007405781994],[0,0,0,2.92542470486611,0,0.5499568096746329,35.905557155197236,0,0.36567808810826374,0,60.25338324215375],[0,0,0,2.891771209866043,38.92196470338082,0,0,0,1.4777801403359558,0,56.70848394641718]],"volatility_latest":39.74661675784623,"volatility_previous":40.034066755608514,"volatility_mean":39.89034175672737,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05380","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"La Estrella","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.08076791649839521,52.09266704958836,49.88501831189848],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05380|2023|Ordinary election|189","CO-ALC-05380|2019|Ordinary election|190","CO-ALC-05380|2015|Ordinary election|191"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05380|2023|Ordinary election|189","CO-ALC-05380|2019|Ordinary election|190","CO-ALC-05380|2015|Ordinary election|191"],"shares":[[0.35842316175328504,0.3576154825883011],[0.6929350947731189,0.17200842427723528],[0.7460182267268546,0.24716804360786984]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.963002081327079,0,99.03699791867292],[0,0,17.20084242772353,0,0,3.7602910204863105,0,0,0,0,79.03886655179015],[0,0,74.60182267268546,0,0,0,0,0.681372966527553,0,0,24.716804360786984]],"volatility_latest":20.961133448209846,"volatility_previous":58.08235321148948,"volatility_mean":39.52174332984966,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05390","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"La Pintada","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[29.28806133625411,8.454106280193237,16.586151368760063],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05390|2023|Ordinary election|192","CO-ALC-05390|2019|Ordinary election|193","CO-ALC-05390|2015|Ordinary election|194"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05390|2023|Ordinary election|192","CO-ALC-05390|2019|Ordinary election|193","CO-ALC-05390|2015|Ordinary election|194"],"shares":[[0.6435925520262871,0.35071193866374595],[0.4981884057971015,0.4136473429951691],[0.5649873475960433,0.39912583390844264]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,35.07119386637459,0,0.5695509309967142,0,0,0,64.3592552026287],[49.81884057971015,3.280998389694042,0,0.3421900161030596,41.36473429951691,5.193236714975845,0,0,0,0,0],[0,0,0,0,39.91258339084426,3.4046468829077523,0.11502185415228894,0.06901311249137336,0,0,56.498734759604325]],"volatility_latest":64.92880613362541,"volatility_previous":56.68276972624799,"volatility_mean":60.8057879299367,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05400","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"La Union","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[24.50197716929046,11.180430142833693,0.09738046547862567],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05400|2023|Ordinary election|195","CO-ALC-05400|2019|Ordinary election|196","CO-ALC-05400|2015|Ordinary election|197"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05400|2023|Ordinary election|195","CO-ALC-05400|2019|Ordinary election|196","CO-ALC-05400|2015|Ordinary election|197"],"shares":[[0.4648213086622398,0.21980153696933524],[0.3290921031029388,0.21728780167460188],[0.24023760833576785,0.23926380368098157]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":9.674733045138773,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,15.093635753189584,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,84.90636424681043],[15.104252175340667,0,0,21.728780167460187,8.652109670004926,17.17287801674602,0,0,1.1081924150385816,0,36.23378755540963],[0,22.202746129126496,0,23.926380368098158,15.600350569675722,8.326029798422436,5.920732301100399,0,0,0,24.023760833576784]],"volatility_latest":63.76621244459038,"volatility_previous":37.26931953053567,"volatility_mean":50.517765987563024,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05411","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Liborina","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.317099400829619,19.75004111165927,28.501628664495115],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05411|2023|Ordinary election|198","CO-ALC-05411|2019|Ordinary election|199","CO-ALC-05411|2015|Ordinary election|200"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05411|2023|Ordinary election|198","CO-ALC-05411|2019|Ordinary election|199","CO-ALC-05411|2015|Ordinary election|200"],"shares":[[0.5215854970041481,0.4784145029958519],[0.5388916296661733,0.34139121854958066],[0.6425081433224755,0.3574918566775244]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":43.17282579777467,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,11.971715178424601,0,0,0,0,0,88.0282848215754],[35.74918566775244,0,0,0,64.25081433224756,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":88.0282848215754,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05425","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Maceo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.2265625,4.238842469940906,1.4187751241428188],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05425|2023|Ordinary election|201","CO-ALC-05425|2019|Ordinary election|202","CO-ALC-05425|2015|Ordinary election|203"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05425|2023|Ordinary election|201","CO-ALC-05425|2019|Ordinary election|202","CO-ALC-05425|2015|Ordinary election|203"],"shares":[[0.3455078125,0.3232421875],[0.39861422457713475,0.3562257998777257],[0.3906360841806573,0.37644833293922914]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":86.25266123301722,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[39.86142245771347,24.51599755451396,0,0,0,35.62257998777257,0,0,0,0,0],[37.644833293922915,8.252541972097422,39.06360841806573,0.6384488058642706,0,0,0,0,0,0,14.400567510049656]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":54.10262473397966,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05440","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Marinilla","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.995695019002458,23.927261729235187,57.53716482193303],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05440|2023|Ordinary election|204","CO-ALC-05440|2019|Ordinary election|205","CO-ALC-05440|2015|Ordinary election|206"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05440|2023|Ordinary election|204","CO-ALC-05440|2019|Ordinary election|205","CO-ALC-05440|2015|Ordinary election|206"],"shares":[[0.4036256011838698,0.24366865099384521],[0.4492457752069865,0.2099731579146346],[0.703700273236697,0.12832862501736675]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[40.36256011838698,18.205361046648505,0,1.1805065079204924,0,0,0,0,0,0,40.25157232704402],[7.5687119579600015,0,44.92457752069865,0,0,6.820158028051869,4.975237231106575,0,0,0,35.71131526218291],[0.023155652294725142,0,12.832862501736674,7.326448386051035,0,0,0.009262260917890057,0,1.4078636595192886,0,78.40040753948038]],"volatility_latest":56.71997277985709,"volatility_previous":51.4234043228678,"volatility_mean":54.07168855136244,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05467","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Montebello","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.65769325759447,6.179033535780306,0.9889799378355484],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05467|2023|Ordinary election|207","CO-ALC-05467|2019|Ordinary election|208","CO-ALC-05467|2015|Ordinary election|209"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05467|2023|Ordinary election|207","CO-ALC-05467|2019|Ordinary election|208","CO-ALC-05467|2015|Ordinary election|209"],"shares":[[0.4309706100271672,0.2943936774512225],[0.4615790863480328,0.3997887509902297],[0.28313082791749083,0.27324102853913534]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":49.26387995462835,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[8.185899128597836,0,0,0,39.97887509902297,0,5.677317137575917,0,0,0,46.15790863480328],[18.451539983046057,27.324102853913534,0,28.313082791749082,25.911274371291324,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":65.90282650011083,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05475","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Murindo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.751045229950591,6.006569685593618,38.25231481481481],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05475|2023|Ordinary election|210","CO-ALC-05475|2019|Ordinary election|211","CO-ALC-05475|2015|Ordinary election|212"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05475|2023|Ordinary election|210","CO-ALC-05475|2019|Ordinary election|211","CO-ALC-05475|2015|Ordinary election|212"],"shares":[[0.5222348916761688,0.47472443937666287],[0.49601126231816045,0.4359455654622243],[0.6903935185185185,0.3078703703703704]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":57.610852374350394,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0.22805017103762829,0,0,0,0,52.223489167616876,0,47.548460661345494],[0.28155795401220085,43.59455654622243,0,0,0.4692632566870014,0,0,5.912717034256218,0,0,49.741905208822146],[0,30.787037037037038,0,0,0,0,69.03935185185185,0,0,0.1736111111111111,0]],"volatility_latest":52.451539338654506,"volatility_previous":69.21296296296296,"volatility_mean":60.83225115080873,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05480","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Mutata","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.838360580244068,10.85318058486584,3.8664323374340945],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05480|2023|Ordinary election|213","CO-ALC-05480|2019|Ordinary election|214","CO-ALC-05480|2015|Ordinary election|215"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05480|2023|Ordinary election|213","CO-ALC-05480|2019|Ordinary election|214","CO-ALC-05480|2015|Ordinary election|215"],"shares":[[0.36990559521068384,0.23152198940824317],[0.4889960807958999,0.3804642749472415],[0.34490333919156413,0.3062390158172232]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":40.27193121325199,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[8.18558600046051,0,0,0,23.152198940824317,0,2.5558369790467417,1.531199631591066,0,0,64.57517844807737],[0,0,0,0,48.89960807958999,6.195357250527585,0,6.858607175158276,0,0,38.04642749472415],[0,0,10.91095489162273,34.49033391915641,1.552431165787932,22.305213825424723,0,0,0,0,30.7410661980082]],"volatility_latest":37.270173932860466,"volatility_previous":61.51114538567628,"volatility_mean":49.39065965926837,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05483","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Nariño","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.1350142334282225,15.517241379310342,3.489326765188835],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05483|2023|Ordinary election|216","CO-ALC-05483|2019|Ordinary election|217","CO-ALC-05483|2015|Ordinary election|218"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05483|2023|Ordinary election|216","CO-ALC-05483|2019|Ordinary election|217","CO-ALC-05483|2015|Ordinary election|218"],"shares":[[0.3794225294835299,0.35807238714924766],[0.4653167602245389,0.31014434643143546],[0.4039408866995074,0.36904761904761907]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":68.5744318481554,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,8.519723464823098,0,0,0,91.4802765351769],[0,0,0,0,46.53167602245389,0,22.453889334402565,0,0,0,31.014434643143545],[22.701149425287355,0,36.904761904761905,0,40.39408866995074,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":60.46584189203335,"volatility_previous":59.60591133004926,"volatility_mean":60.0358766110413,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05490","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Necocli","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.822633297062019,23.927443187608276,20.946528676153516],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05490|2023|Ordinary election|219","CO-ALC-05490|2019|Ordinary election|220","CO-ALC-05490|2015|Ordinary election|221"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05490|2023|Ordinary election|219","CO-ALC-05490|2019|Ordinary election|220","CO-ALC-05490|2015|Ordinary election|221"],"shares":[[0.4720783460282916,0.4238520130576714],[0.5757668399062468,0.33649240803016406],[0.434993531694696,0.22552824493316084]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":39.16767098932476,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,42.38520130576714,0,0.8400435255712732,0,0,0,0,56.77475516866159],[0,4.076225415265464,57.57668399062468,0,3.5870783654336087,0,0,0,0,0,34.760012228676246],[0,43.4993531694696,21.539456662354464,0,22.552824493316084,0.5498059508408797,0.03234152652005175,0,0,11.79387667097887,0.03234152652005175]],"volatility_latest":65.23998777132375,"volatility_previous":70.76489803042641,"volatility_mean":68.00244290087508,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05495","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Nechi","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.044712017792776,1.0776871895792333,18.747609942638622],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05495|2023|Ordinary election|222","CO-ALC-05495|2019|Ordinary election|223","CO-ALC-05495|2015|Ordinary election|224"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05495|2023|Ordinary election|222","CO-ALC-05495|2019|Ordinary election|223","CO-ALC-05495|2015|Ordinary election|224"],"shares":[[0.5152235600889639,0.48477643991103614],[0.2568643988379721,0.24608752694217972],[0.4544933078393881,0.2670172084130019]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":79.87552819093351,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,25.686439883797206,0,10.814356667603786,15.77171773966826,0.5154156124074595,0,0,0,47.212070096523284],[14.321223709369026,11.15678776290631,26.70172084130019,0,0,0,0.248565965583174,2.1223709369024855,0,0,45.44933078393881]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":28.615663366680803,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05501","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Olaya","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[37.65490943755958,38.832609744331876,4.296066252587991],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05501|2023|Ordinary election|225","CO-ALC-05501|2019|Ordinary election|226","CO-ALC-05501|2015|Ordinary election|227"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05501|2023|Ordinary election|225","CO-ALC-05501|2019|Ordinary election|226","CO-ALC-05501|2015|Ordinary election|227"],"shares":[[0.6882745471877979,0.3117254528122021],[0.6941630487216593,0.3058369512783406],[0.46169772256728775,0.41873706004140787]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,68.82745471877979,0,31.17254528122021,0,0,0,0,0,0],[0,0,0,0,30.58369512783406,0,0,0,0,0,69.41630487216594],[6.884057971014493,0,0,46.16977225672878,5.072463768115942,0,0,0,0,0,41.873706004140786]],"volatility_latest":69.41630487216594,"volatility_previous":53.05383022774327,"volatility_mean":61.23506754995461,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05541","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Peñol","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.929601741812572,5.844758272343057,1.1179727427597967],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05541|2023|Ordinary election|228","CO-ALC-05541|2019|Ordinary election|229","CO-ALC-05541|2015|Ordinary election|230"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05541|2023|Ordinary election|228","CO-ALC-05541|2019|Ordinary election|229","CO-ALC-05541|2015|Ordinary election|230"],"shares":[[0.41767214007076114,0.2983761226526354],[0.3923306875579837,0.33388310483455313],[0.3402896081771721,0.3291098807495741]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":54.88507099466779,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,39.23306875579837,0,13.194516029275333,2.6595196371508094,0,0,0,0,44.91289557777549],[5.440800681431005,22.7427597955707,0,34.028960817717206,4.589011925042589,0.28747870528109026,0,0,0,0,32.91098807495741]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":62.21252129471891,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05543","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Peque","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.467005076142136,2.430028205684529,10.240515745102897],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05543|2023|Ordinary election|231","CO-ALC-05543|2019|Ordinary election|232","CO-ALC-05543|2015|Ordinary election|233"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05543|2023|Ordinary election|231","CO-ALC-05543|2019|Ordinary election|232","CO-ALC-05543|2015|Ordinary election|233"],"shares":[[0.5604060913705584,0.435736040609137],[0.5116077240182252,0.48730744196137993],[0.456979915695512,0.35457475824448303]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":53.83368459049536,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,43.5736040609137,0,0,0,56.04060913705584,0,0,0,0,0.38578680203045684],[0,51.16077240182252,0,0,0.10848340203948796,48.73074419613799,0,0,0,0,0],[0,45.6979915695512,18.844532606000495,0,0,35.4574758244483,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":7.695651742948305,"volatility_previous":18.844532606000495,"volatility_mean":13.2700921744744,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05576","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Pueblorrico","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.038312526904868,8.624820316243415,22.756165776760746],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05576|2023|Ordinary election|234","CO-ALC-05576|2019|Ordinary election|235","CO-ALC-05576|2015|Ordinary election|236"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05576|2023|Ordinary election|234","CO-ALC-05576|2019|Ordinary election|235","CO-ALC-05576|2015|Ordinary election|236"],"shares":[[0.4817046922083513,0.4113215669393026],[0.543124101581217,0.4568758984187829],[0.4452072209509281,0.21764556318332062]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":54.5697490565399,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[6.102212051868802,0,44.52072209509281,0,9.28044749555047,0.3305364861428935,18.001525553012968,0,0,0,21.764556318332062]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05579","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Puerto Berrio","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.7289048473967696,5.406408511691204,26.20967741935484],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05579|2023|Ordinary election|237","CO-ALC-05579|2019|Ordinary election|238","CO-ALC-05579|2015|Ordinary election|239"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05579|2023|Ordinary election|237","CO-ALC-05579|2019|Ordinary election|238","CO-ALC-05579|2015|Ordinary election|239"],"shares":[[0.25409934171154996,0.22681029323758228],[0.4447606086848942,0.3906965235679822],[0.5277055150884495,0.2656087408949011]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":70.59883398059547,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,9.934171154997008,0,0,0,90.06582884500298],[0,2.548558703451689,0,7.03327972287517,0,0,0.17320301868118274,0,3.6496350364963503,0,86.5953235184956],[6.692247658688866,0.3446930280957336,0,52.77055150884495,4.025754422476587,0,0,9.605879292403745,0,0,26.560874089490113]],"volatility_latest":13.231473462823207,"volatility_previous":66.06115315953897,"volatility_mean":39.64631331118109,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05585","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Puerto Nare-La Magdalena","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.236906510034267,11.49425287356322,7.726058756199919],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05585|2023|Ordinary election|240","CO-ALC-05585|2019|Ordinary election|241","CO-ALC-05585|2015|Ordinary election|242"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05585|2023|Ordinary election|240","CO-ALC-05585|2019|Ordinary election|241","CO-ALC-05585|2015|Ordinary election|242"],"shares":[[0.4526431718061674,0.33027410670582474],[0.5090676883780332,0.394125159642401],[0.534338038916444,0.4570774513544449]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":42.184871781452415,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,45.26431718061674,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,54.73568281938326],[4.431673052362708,50.90676883780332,0,39.4125159642401,0.038314176245210725,0,2.796934865900383,0,0,0,2.413793103448276],[0,0,45.70774513544449,0,0.8584509729111026,0,0,0,0,0,53.43380389164441]],"volatility_latest":52.32188971593498,"volatility_previous":97.5478927203065,"volatility_mean":74.93489121812074,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05591","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Puerto Triunfo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.59052302190434,21.306695464362853,8.943089430894304],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05591|2023|Ordinary election|243","CO-ALC-05591|2019|Ordinary election|244","CO-ALC-05591|2015|Ordinary election|245"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05591|2023|Ordinary election|243","CO-ALC-05591|2019|Ordinary election|244","CO-ALC-05591|2015|Ordinary election|245"],"shares":[[0.4655789003129191,0.28967367009387573],[0.5533477321814255,0.34028077753779695],[0.42839274546591616,0.33896185115697314]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":10.796843022295555,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,7.084233261339093,0,34.0280777537797,3.552915766738661,0,0,0,0,55.33477321814255],[33.896185115697314,0,3.8774233896185115,19.387116948092558,42.83927454659162,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":62.094498856601795,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05604","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Remedios","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[37.72080347229232,12.16915714425237,14.012738853503183],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05604|2023|Ordinary election|246","CO-ALC-05604|2019|Ordinary election|247","CO-ALC-05604|2015|Ordinary election|248"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05604|2023|Ordinary election|246","CO-ALC-05604|2019|Ordinary election|247","CO-ALC-05604|2015|Ordinary election|248"],"shares":[[0.5276067427071767,0.15039870798425356],[0.3512061724777811,0.22951460103525737],[0.44625796178343946,0.30613057324840764]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,52.76067427071767,0,0,1.3525789845563743,5.935197335217523,7.217119208640355,0,0,0,32.73443020086807],[0,0,0,35.12061724777811,0,16.759449164957516,3.7991991405410683,0,0,22.951460103525736,21.369274343197578],[1.1809978768577494,16.480891719745223,30.613057324840764,44.62579617834395,0.3317409766454352,0,6.767515923566879,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":68.89632918104382,"volatility_previous":61.08018361168082,"volatility_mean":64.98825639636232,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05607","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Retiro","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.591240875912412,18.274370068719776,10.222740978504039],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05607|2023|Ordinary election|249","CO-ALC-05607|2019|Ordinary election|250","CO-ALC-05607|2015|Ordinary election|251"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05607|2023|Ordinary election|249","CO-ALC-05607|2019|Ordinary election|250","CO-ALC-05607|2015|Ordinary election|251"],"shares":[[0.4363573166492875,0.36044490789016337],[0.5845422923559854,0.4017985916687876],[0.40745063709755863,0.3052232273125182]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":44.70335177993109,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0.6117483489746264,0,0,0,0,0,0,99.38825165102537],[0,0,0,40.179859166878764,0,0,0,0,0,0,59.820140833121236],[28.732613558992316,0,40.74506370975586,0,30.522322731251823,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":39.568110817904135,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":69.78405540895207,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05615","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Rionegro","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.0326645664069,2.0656262030977004,35.692786364097536],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05615|2023|Ordinary election|252","CO-ALC-05615|2019|Ordinary election|253","CO-ALC-05615|2015|Ordinary election|254"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05615|2023|Ordinary election|252","CO-ALC-05615|2019|Ordinary election|253","CO-ALC-05615|2015|Ordinary election|254"],"shares":[[0.5241508615741745,0.39382421591010547],[0.38137826872390207,0.3607220066929251],[0.6463864182082587,0.2894585545672833]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":39.95717381408398,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,1.2171646874167086,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.8884413776764296,0,97.89439393490686],[0,0,0,0,0,4.651831309817714,0,0,0.8792992661233048,0,94.46886942405898]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":4.651831309817713,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05628","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Sabanalarga","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.5603085553997218,5.765559373806795,3.8712392173364236],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05628|2023|Ordinary election|255","CO-ALC-05628|2019|Ordinary election|256","CO-ALC-05628|2015|Ordinary election|257"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05628|2023|Ordinary election|255","CO-ALC-05628|2019|Ordinary election|256","CO-ALC-05628|2015|Ordinary election|257"],"shares":[[0.45494389901823284,0.4393408134642356],[0.3676975945017182,0.31004200076365024],[0.413002314327793,0.37428992215442874]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":84.73511566442244,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[45.49438990182328,10.571528751753156,0,0,43.93408134642356,0,0,0,0,0,0],[31.004200076365024,30.64146620847652,0,0,36.76975945017182,0,0,0,0,1.5845742649866361,0],[41.3002314327793,19.4613928045445,0,0,1.8093835472333264,0,0,0,0,0,37.428992215442875]],"volatility_latest":21.65451172171,"volatility_previous":47.72502357185715,"volatility_mean":34.68976764678358,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05631","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Sabaneta","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.875717426409079,1.4971229203009813,30.073434397554287],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05631|2023|Ordinary election|258","CO-ALC-05631|2019|Ordinary election|259","CO-ALC-05631|2015|Ordinary election|260"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05631|2023|Ordinary election|258","CO-ALC-05631|2019|Ordinary election|259","CO-ALC-05631|2015|Ordinary election|260"],"shares":[[0.3879452907644118,0.269188116500321],[0.5074856146015049,0.49251438539849507],[0.6266506980995303,0.3259163541239875]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":47.09044614154415,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,3.7977392556275413,0,0,0,0,0,96.20226074437245],[0,0,0,0,49.25143853984951,0,0,0,0,0,50.74856146015049],[32.59163541239875,0,0,0,62.66506980995304,0,2.1399981089854707,0,2.6032966686627375,0,0]],"volatility_latest":45.45369928422197,"volatility_previous":50.74856146015049,"volatility_mean":48.10113037218623,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05642","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Salgar","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.506061048634436,15.015607031378352,8.881093057607089],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05642|2023|Ordinary election|261","CO-ALC-05642|2019|Ordinary election|262","CO-ALC-05642|2015|Ordinary election|263"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05642|2023|Ordinary election|261","CO-ALC-05642|2019|Ordinary election|262","CO-ALC-05642|2015|Ordinary election|263"],"shares":[[0.35095662333868843,0.29589601285234407],[0.47182520124856253,0.321669130934779],[0.40509601181683896,0.3162850812407681]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":56.51785977822562,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,23.09040455674018,0,0,0,0,0,76.90959544325982],[32.1669130934779,15.409889929357647,0,0,0,0,0,4.419254148184656,0.821422704123542,0,47.182520124856254],[4.154357459379616,40.5096011816839,20.58714918759232,0,31.62850812407681,0,0,1.1632200886262924,0.07385524372230429,0,1.8833087149187593]],"volatility_latest":52.817479875143746,"volatility_previous":77.31536856399538,"volatility_mean":65.06642421956957,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05647","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"San Andres","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.040454419506787,26.574500768049155,11.54395997140815],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05647|2023|Ordinary election|264","CO-ALC-05647|2019|Ordinary election|265","CO-ALC-05647|2015|Ordinary election|266"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05647|2023|Ordinary election|264","CO-ALC-05647|2019|Ordinary election|265","CO-ALC-05647|2015|Ordinary election|266"],"shares":[[0.4211692989747853,0.3607647547797174],[0.5238095238095238,0.25806451612903225],[0.46568977841315223,0.35025017869907077]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":36.244905603701824,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,17.899695206428373,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,82.10030479357162],[25.806451612903224,3.6559139784946235,0,0.030721966205837174,52.38095238095238,0,0,0,0,0,18.125960061443934],[46.568977841315224,35.025017869907074,0,0,0,16.58327376697641,0,0,0,0,1.8227305218012866]],"volatility_latest":78.21812596006144,"volatility_previous":68.71490388680087,"volatility_mean":73.46651492343116,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05649","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"San Carlos","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.8105076085749197,7.2757475083056455,6.356736242884249],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05649|2023|Ordinary election|267","CO-ALC-05649|2019|Ordinary election|268","CO-ALC-05649|2015|Ordinary election|269"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05649|2023|Ordinary election|267","CO-ALC-05649|2019|Ordinary election|268","CO-ALC-05649|2015|Ordinary election|269"],"shares":[[0.30312118182827946,0.2850161057425302],[0.39258028792912514,0.31982281284606867],[0.38140417457305503,0.31783681214421255]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":80.47648779037465,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[5.242696878818172,0,28.501610574253025,0,0,0,0,0,0.5442630234366322,0,65.71142952349217],[31.982281284606866,0,0,0,23.067552602436322,0,0,0,0,0,44.95016611295681],[0.03557874762808349,0,31.783681214421254,0,0,30.04032258064516,0,0,0,0,38.1404174573055]],"volatility_latest":49.80713700822502,"volatility_previous":61.82400379506641,"volatility_mean":55.815570401645715,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05652","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"San Francisco","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[23.46647646219686,20.33613445378151,20.329387545033455],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05652|2023|Ordinary election|270","CO-ALC-05652|2019|Ordinary election|271","CO-ALC-05652|2015|Ordinary election|272"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05652|2023|Ordinary election|270","CO-ALC-05652|2019|Ordinary election|271","CO-ALC-05652|2015|Ordinary election|272"],"shares":[[0.6165002377555873,0.38183547313361865],[0.6016806722689075,0.39831932773109247],[0.6016469377251673,0.39835306227483275]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[39.831932773109244,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,60.168067226890756],[60.16469377251673,0,0,39.83530622748327,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":60.168067226890756,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05656","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"San Jeronimo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[33.161688980432544,15.48488008342023,0.9060837048755985],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05656|2023|Ordinary election|273","CO-ALC-05656|2019|Ordinary election|274","CO-ALC-05656|2015|Ordinary election|275"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05656|2023|Ordinary election|273","CO-ALC-05656|2019|Ordinary election|274","CO-ALC-05656|2015|Ordinary election|275"],"shares":[[0.6198506694129763,0.2882337796086509],[0.5188998957247132,0.3640510948905109],[0.39321156335394797,0.384150726305192]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,28.823377960865088,0,0,0,0,0,71.1766220391349],[0,0,0,0,36.40510948905109,0,0,0,0,0,63.5948905109489],[0,0,22.263771034086005,0,38.4150726305192,0,0,0,0,0,39.3211563353948]],"volatility_latest":7.581731528186001,"volatility_previous":24.273734175554107,"volatility_mean":15.927732851870054,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05658","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"San Jose De La Montaña","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[40.887850467289724,42.18289085545723,29.858299595141695],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05658|2023|Ordinary election|276","CO-ALC-05658|2019|Ordinary election|277","CO-ALC-05658|2015|Ordinary election|278"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05658|2023|Ordinary election|276","CO-ALC-05658|2019|Ordinary election|277","CO-ALC-05658|2015|Ordinary election|278"],"shares":[[0.6869158878504673,0.2780373831775701],[0.7109144542772862,0.2890855457227139],[0.6492914979757084,0.3507085020242915]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[68.69158878504673,0,0,0,27.80373831775701,0,3.5046728971962615,0,0,0,0],null,[0,0,35.07085020242915,0,0,0,64.92914979757084,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05659","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"San Juan De Uraba","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.07786949073352645,1.2559549588566519,1.741097776903402],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05659|2023|Ordinary election|279","CO-ALC-05659|2019|Ordinary election|280","CO-ALC-05659|2015|Ordinary election|281"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05659|2023|Ordinary election|279","CO-ALC-05659|2019|Ordinary election|280","CO-ALC-05659|2015|Ordinary election|281"],"shares":[[0.38319576389970406,0.3824170689923688],[0.32576873105240367,0.31320918146383714],[0.3137910682667716,0.29638009049773756]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":97.01191020106275,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,38.31957638997041,0,0,0,0,23.43871671079271,0,0,0,38.24170689923688],[0.9354699003897792,0,31.104374187960158,0,32.57687310524037,0,0,0,0,0,35.3832828064097],[0,0.14755065905961046,31.37910682667716,15.394452095219359,29.638009049773757,0,23.273657289002557,0,0,0,0.16722408026755853]],"volatility_latest":64.6167171935903,"volatility_previous":39.09039268199853,"volatility_mean":51.853554937794414,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05660","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"San Luis","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[24.39575971731449,4.8053527980535335,0.29722589167767666],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05660|2023|Ordinary election|282","CO-ALC-05660|2019|Ordinary election|283","CO-ALC-05660|2015|Ordinary election|284"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05660|2023|Ordinary election|282","CO-ALC-05660|2019|Ordinary election|283","CO-ALC-05660|2015|Ordinary election|284"],"shares":[[0.48325088339222616,0.23929328621908127],[0.5240267639902677,0.47597323600973235],[0.26898943196829594,0.2660171730515192]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":19.456078705137404,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[4.424028268551237,0,0,0,0,0,23.929328621908127,0,0,0,71.64664310954065],[52.40267639902677,0,0,0,47.59732360097323,0,0,0,0,0,0],[26.601717305151915,8.355350066050198,0,15.224570673712021,15.538309114927344,1.8163804491413473,0,0,0,5.564729194187582,26.898943196829592]],"volatility_latest":95.57597173144876,"volatility_previous":57.85997357992074,"volatility_mean":76.71797265568475,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05664","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"San Pedro","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.323990657323989,19.056539509536787,7.483800310303913],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05664|2023|Ordinary election|285","CO-ALC-05664|2019|Ordinary election|286","CO-ALC-05664|2015|Ordinary election|287"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05664|2023|Ordinary election|285","CO-ALC-05664|2019|Ordinary election|286","CO-ALC-05664|2015|Ordinary election|287"],"shares":[[0.3630296963630297,0.2897897897897898],[0.42966621253405995,0.2391008174386921],[0.4242037053938122,0.349365702290773]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":45.701318608570894,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[23.91008174386921,0,2.4863760217983653,0,23.399182561307903,0,0,0,0,1.4560626702997275,48.7482970027248],[42.42037053938122,34.936570229077304,0,0,6.415989778223967,0,16.227069453317515,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":69.67392847790683,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05665","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"San Pedro De Uraba","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.071411280561605,13.340605749486656,14.593675620537233],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05665|2023|Ordinary election|288","CO-ALC-05665|2019|Ordinary election|289","CO-ALC-05665|2015|Ordinary election|290"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05665|2023|Ordinary election|288","CO-ALC-05665|2019|Ordinary election|289","CO-ALC-05665|2015|Ordinary election|290"],"shares":[[0.4325829097070927,0.3818687969014766],[0.44590605749486656,0.3125],[0.5545732743964638,0.4086365181910914]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":57.47801972381659,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02420721374969741,0,0,0,99.9757927862503],[0,0,24.050308008213552,0,44.590605749486656,0,0,0,0,0,31.359086242299796],[0,0,3.6790207412444746,0,40.863651819109144,0,0,0,0,0,55.45732743964638]],"volatility_latest":68.6409137577002,"volatility_previous":24.098241197346585,"volatility_mean":46.36957747752339,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05667","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"San Rafael","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.441692714594851,17.633986928104573,12.989985693848354],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05667|2023|Ordinary election|291","CO-ALC-05667|2019|Ordinary election|292","CO-ALC-05667|2015|Ordinary election|293"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05667|2023|Ordinary election|291","CO-ALC-05667|2019|Ordinary election|292","CO-ALC-05667|2015|Ordinary election|293"],"shares":[[0.457201250300553,0.3827843231546045],[0.4275816993464052,0.2512418300653595],[0.5626609442060085,0.43276108726752505]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":44.72894861713442,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,45.7201250300553,0,0,0,0,0,54.2798749699447],[42.75816993464052,0,0,9.843137254901961,25.124183006535947,15.22875816993464,2.130718954248366,0.6535947712418301,0,2.457516339869281,1.803921568627451],[43.276108726752504,0,0,0,56.26609442060086,0.45779685264663805,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":73.0718954248366,"volatility_previous":31.659850206176895,"volatility_mean":52.36587281550675,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05670","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"San Roque","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[28.664700926705983,0.7027088291964176,11.990291262135926],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05670|2023|Ordinary election|294","CO-ALC-05670|2019|Ordinary election|295","CO-ALC-05670|2015|Ordinary election|296"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05670|2023|Ordinary election|294","CO-ALC-05670|2019|Ordinary election|295","CO-ALC-05670|2015|Ordinary election|296"],"shares":[[0.6322662173546757,0.34561920808761587],[0.35940156409384566,0.35237447580188147],[0.5385922330097087,0.4186893203883495]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":6.956688345019479,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,35.237447580188146,28.822396010427294,0,0,0,0,0,35.940156409384564],[53.859223300970875,3.7014563106796117,41.86893203883495,0,0,0,0,0.5703883495145631,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05674","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"San Vicente","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.954035468693448,2.359797458679658,1.2840619486375218],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05674|2023|Ordinary election|297","CO-ALC-05674|2019|Ordinary election|298","CO-ALC-05674|2015|Ordinary election|299"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05674|2023|Ordinary election|297","CO-ALC-05674|2019|Ordinary election|298","CO-ALC-05674|2015|Ordinary election|299"],"shares":[[0.36120159247195077,0.32166123778501626],[0.46097258049106715,0.4373746059042706],[0.38649284454028626,0.37365222505391105]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":83.95616643158141,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[36.120159247195076,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,63.87984075280492],[0,0,0,10.165281360466228,0,0,0,0,0,0,89.83471863953378],[23.985493040580277,37.3652225053911,0,0,38.649284454028624,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":36.12015924719508,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":68.06007962359755,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05679","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Santa Barbara","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.714518760195752,11.130942722699984,2.0849032906304927],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05679|2023|Ordinary election|300","CO-ALC-05679|2019|Ordinary election|301","CO-ALC-05679|2015|Ordinary election|302"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05679|2023|Ordinary election|300","CO-ALC-05679|2019|Ordinary election|301","CO-ALC-05679|2015|Ordinary election|302"],"shares":[[0.5309135399673736,0.383768352365416],[0.5339931851371085,0.4226837579101087],[0.41229171899857653,0.3914426860922716]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":38.11757799004752,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.13866231647634583,0,0,99.86133768352366],[3.8374168424468604,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,96.16258315755313],[0,41.229171899857654,0,16.503391107761868,0,0,0,0,3.1231683831533115,0,39.14426860922716]],"volatility_latest":3.8374168424468675,"volatility_previous":60.85573139077283,"volatility_mean":32.34657411660985,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05686","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Santa Rosa De Osos","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.483471074380166,17.31543624161074,19.225652874046066],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05686|2023|Ordinary election|303","CO-ALC-05686|2019|Ordinary election|304","CO-ALC-05686|2015|Ordinary election|305"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05686|2023|Ordinary election|303","CO-ALC-05686|2019|Ordinary election|304","CO-ALC-05686|2015|Ordinary election|305"],"shares":[[0.2440082644628099,0.19917355371900825],[0.4133557046979866,0.2402013422818792],[0.5096268290975285,0.3173703003570678]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":50.96360597742036,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[19.917355371900825,0,24.40082644628099,0,0,6.198347107438017,0,0,0,0,49.48347107438016],[23.187919463087248,0,24.02013422818792,0,41.33557046979866,6.080536912751678,3.5167785234899327,1.8590604026845639,0,0,0],[31.737030035706784,1.7083245816705175,0.16803192606595252,0,15.423930546803893,0,0,50.96268290975285,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":49.98197348715958,"volatility_previous":59.361057661358345,"volatility_mean":54.67151557425896,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05690","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Santo Domingo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.8892190853557906,12.398828999483385,8.350612629594721],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05690|2023|Ordinary election|306","CO-ALC-05690|2019|Ordinary election|307","CO-ALC-05690|2015|Ordinary election|308"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05690|2023|Ordinary election|306","CO-ALC-05690|2019|Ordinary election|307","CO-ALC-05690|2015|Ordinary election|308"],"shares":[[0.35743767541687305,0.3285454845633151],[0.5157568451868435,0.39176855519200965],[0.4458058435438266,0.36229971724787935]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":68.5587929299102,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[22.88261515601783,0,35.743767541687305,0,8.205382202410433,0,0,0,0,0,33.16823509988443],[0,0,39.17685551920096,8.283106595488205,0,0.9643533666264853,0,0,0,0,51.57568451868435],[44.58058435438266,0,0,0,36.22997172478794,0,0,19.189443920829405,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":31.087997358428268,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":65.54399867921413,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05697","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Santuario","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.1250691754288873,28.105856407743204,8.382009345794387],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05697|2023|Ordinary election|309","CO-ALC-05697|2019|Ordinary election|310","CO-ALC-05697|2015|Ordinary election|311"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05697|2023|Ordinary election|309","CO-ALC-05697|2019|Ordinary election|310","CO-ALC-05697|2015|Ordinary election|311"],"shares":[[0.31416712783619255,0.2929164360819037],[0.5708772359715756,0.28981867189414356],[0.4531980140186916,0.3693779205607477]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":47.275003189201335,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[22.949640287769785,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,77.05035971223022],[0,0,0,0,0,0,13.930409213428081,0,0,0,86.06959078657192],[36.93779205607477,0,45.31980140186916,0,17.742406542056074,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":22.949640287769785,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":61.47482014388489,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05736","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Segovia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.874665098346732,14.653234535009574,30.54016620498615],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05736|2023|Ordinary election|312","CO-ALC-05736|2019|Ordinary election|313","CO-ALC-05736|2015|Ordinary election|314"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05736|2023|Ordinary election|312","CO-ALC-05736|2019|Ordinary election|313","CO-ALC-05736|2015|Ordinary election|314"],"shares":[[0.3100045742664837,0.2512579232830164],[0.46290900008325697,0.31637665473316123],[0.6327908587257618,0.3273891966759003]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":45.126069799952376,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0.39861465072208063,0,0,0,0,99.6013853492779],[31.637665473316126,0,0,0,0,0,3.3968861876613103,0,0,4.579135792190492,60.38631254683207],[63.279085872576175,0,0,0,0.19909972299168974,0,0,0,0,3.7828947368421053,32.738919667590025]],"volatility_latest":39.61368745316792,"volatility_previous":31.840520122251743,"volatility_mean":35.72710378770983,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05756","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Sonson","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.25498221834530455,26.955161626694473,18.476257973068744],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05756|2023|Ordinary election|315","CO-ALC-05756|2019|Ordinary election|316","CO-ALC-05756|2015|Ordinary election|317"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05756|2023|Ordinary election|315","CO-ALC-05756|2019|Ordinary election|316","CO-ALC-05756|2015|Ordinary election|317"],"shares":[[0.4078373481849292,0.4052875260014762],[0.5430787278415016,0.27352711157455684],[0.4750531537916371,0.29029057406094966]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":49.56418191838801,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[40.52875260014762,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,59.47124739985239],[27.352711157455683,0,0,0.5735140771637122,54.307872784150156,0,13.529718456725757,0,0,0,4.236183524504693],[29.029057406094967,0,8.391211906449326,15.074415308291991,47.50531537916371,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":68.41110531803963,"volatility_previous":24.56845938621689,"volatility_mean":46.48978235212826,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05761","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Sopetran","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.846620450606586,19.003666708812744,17.340021691973973],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05761|2023|Ordinary election|318","CO-ALC-05761|2019|Ordinary election|319","CO-ALC-05761|2015|Ordinary election|320"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05761|2023|Ordinary election|318","CO-ALC-05761|2019|Ordinary election|319","CO-ALC-05761|2015|Ordinary election|320"],"shares":[[0.4562391681109185,0.32777296360485264],[0.40839549879883674,0.21835883171070933],[0.4943058568329718,0.32090563991323207]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":24.28462773897414,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,16.651915539259072,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,83.34808446074092],[0,0,0,0,2.1149674620390457,5.422993492407809,0,9.015726681127983,1.9251626898047722,0,81.52114967462039]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":18.478850325379607,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05789","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Tamesis","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.730769230769226,35.29411764705882,33.998859098687966],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05789|2023|Ordinary election|321","CO-ALC-05789|2019|Ordinary election|322","CO-ALC-05789|2015|Ordinary election|323"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05789|2023|Ordinary election|321","CO-ALC-05789|2019|Ordinary election|322","CO-ALC-05789|2015|Ordinary election|323"],"shares":[[0.5493212669683257,0.3820135746606335],[0.676470588235294,0.32352941176470584],[0.6690245293782088,0.32903593839132916]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,6.866515837104072,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,93.13348416289593],[67.6470588235294,0,0,0,0,0,32.35294117647059,0,0,0,0],[66.90245293782088,0,32.90359383913292,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1939532230462065,0]],"volatility_latest":100.0,"volatility_previous":33.09754706217912,"volatility_mean":66.54877353108955,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05790","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Taraza","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[32.049374069859056,0.351322338245339,24.534339870353655],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05790|2023|Ordinary election|324","CO-ALC-05790|2019|Ordinary election|325","CO-ALC-05790|2015|Ordinary election|326"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05790|2023|Ordinary election|324","CO-ALC-05790|2019|Ordinary election|325","CO-ALC-05790|2015|Ordinary election|326"],"shares":[[0.6200647815810207,0.2995710408824302],[0.389675026837123,0.38616180345466966],[0.6104865840649873,0.36514318536145074]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,38.967502683712304,0,5.777300673367815,0,0,0,7.514394456914219,0,0.20493803064311505,47.535864155362546],[0,61.04865840649873,36.514318536145076,0,0,0,0.910806597193731,0.6646426520062362,0,0,0.8615738081562321]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":59.50628085612523,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05792","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Tarso","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.6911045943304,6.078184110970994,15.818281335522713],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05792|2023|Ordinary election|327","CO-ALC-05792|2019|Ordinary election|328","CO-ALC-05792|2015|Ordinary election|329"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05792|2023|Ordinary election|327","CO-ALC-05792|2019|Ordinary election|328","CO-ALC-05792|2015|Ordinary election|329"],"shares":[[0.4831378299120235,0.31622678396871945],[0.5303909205548549,0.469609079445145],[0.5790914066776136,0.42090859332238645]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":32.90026938279096,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,31.622678396871944,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,68.37732160312805],null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05809","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Titiribi","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.17978031831428,28.592303945445686,31.019417475728154],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05809|2023|Ordinary election|330","CO-ALC-05809|2019|Ordinary election|331","CO-ALC-05809|2015|Ordinary election|332"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05809|2023|Ordinary election|330","CO-ALC-05809|2019|Ordinary election|331","CO-ALC-05809|2015|Ordinary election|332"],"shares":[[0.4689531495180453,0.28715534633490253],[0.6429615197272284,0.3570384802727715],[0.6550970873786407,0.3449029126213592]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,14.906971531046851,3.1383097960098634,0,0,0,6.3438690876485095,0,0,0,75.61084958529477],null,[0,0,0,0,65.50970873786407,0,0,0,0,0,34.49029126213592]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05819","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Toledo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[45.8018018018018,13.355167394468701,20.06407689227072],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05819|2023|Ordinary election|333","CO-ALC-05819|2019|Ordinary election|334","CO-ALC-05819|2015|Ordinary election|335"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05819|2023|Ordinary election|333","CO-ALC-05819|2019|Ordinary election|334","CO-ALC-05819|2015|Ordinary election|335"],"shares":[[0.6443243243243244,0.1863063063063063],[0.5531295487627365,0.4195778748180495],[0.6003203844613536,0.3996796155386464]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,4.828828828828829,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,95.17117117117118],[41.95778748180495,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.8369723435225619,0,57.20524017467248],[60.03203844613536,0,39.96796155386464,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":42.79475982532752,"volatility_previous":58.04221251819505,"volatility_mean":50.41848617176129,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05837","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Turbo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.707367147148446,1.2042256297055474,24.29265942536791],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05837|2023|Ordinary election|336","CO-ALC-05837|2019|Ordinary election|337","CO-ALC-05837|2015|Ordinary election|338"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05837|2023|Ordinary election|336","CO-ALC-05837|2019|Ordinary election|337","CO-ALC-05837|2015|Ordinary election|338"],"shares":[[0.49460808678927237,0.32753441531778793],[0.33907524932003624,0.3270329930229808],[0.538104414856342,0.2951778206026629]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":35.92523040131239,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,32.75344153177879,0,0,0,67.24655846822121],[25.05814182663881,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,74.94185817336118],[0,14.328573931324456,0.9110021023125437,29.517782060266292,0,0.4620707778556412,0,0.024088997897687457,0,0,54.75648213034338]],"volatility_latest":32.75344153177879,"volatility_previous":45.243517869656614,"volatility_mean":38.9984797007177,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05842","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Uramita","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.504134183794001,13.583746751712738,16.147810680840294],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05842|2023|Ordinary election|339","CO-ALC-05842|2019|Ordinary election|340","CO-ALC-05842|2015|Ordinary election|341"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05842|2023|Ordinary election|339","CO-ALC-05842|2019|Ordinary election|340","CO-ALC-05842|2015|Ordinary election|341"],"shares":[[0.3550673281360737,0.3300259862981337],[0.5679187337585637,0.43208126624143633],[0.5616299670969375,0.40015186028853456]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":64.03807198062874,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[33.00259862981337,0,0,23.009685802031655,0,0.7795889440113395,0,0,0,0,43.20812662414363],[56.79187337585637,43.20812662414363,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[56.16299670969375,40.015186028853456,3.8218172614527965,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":66.99740137018662,"volatility_previous":3.8218172614527948,"volatility_mean":35.40960931581971,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05847","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Urrao","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.778211563487638,23.782549109182277,30.50376017307098],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05847|2023|Ordinary election|342","CO-ALC-05847|2019|Ordinary election|343","CO-ALC-05847|2015|Ordinary election|344"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05847|2023|Ordinary election|342","CO-ALC-05847|2019|Ordinary election|343","CO-ALC-05847|2015|Ordinary election|344"],"shares":[[0.32078453244097416,0.15300241680609777],[0.43161260849703065,0.19378711740520785],[0.5457916967137117,0.24075409498300196]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[4.230242119689356,11.731384193695751,19.378711740520785,0,0,43.16126084970306,7.437185929648241,0,0,0,14.061215166742805],[0,0,0,21.345420830328628,24.075409498300196,0,0,0,0,0,54.579169671371176]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":85.9387848332572,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05854","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Valdivia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.625191541526206,33.68471490177288,9.484739087627172],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05854|2023|Ordinary election|345","CO-ALC-05854|2019|Ordinary election|346","CO-ALC-05854|2015|Ordinary election|347"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05854|2023|Ordinary election|345","CO-ALC-05854|2019|Ordinary election|346","CO-ALC-05854|2015|Ordinary election|347"],"shares":[[0.603125957707631,0.39687404229236894],[0.639833892349465,0.30298674333173614],[0.36576960945191994,0.2709222185756482]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,60.3125957707631,0,0,0,0,39.6874042292369],[0,63.98338923494649,0,30.298674333173615,0,0,0,0,0,2.124261300111803,3.593675131768088],[36.57696094519199,9.35346242205448,5.004922874958976,27.09222185756482,0,15.11322612405645,6.859205776173285,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":96.4063248682319,"volatility_previous":63.5543157203807,"volatility_mean":79.9803202943063,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05856","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Valparaiso","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.512166859791424,40.84158415841584,0.5989911727616644],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05856|2023|Ordinary election|348","CO-ALC-05856|2019|Ordinary election|349","CO-ALC-05856|2015|Ordinary election|350"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05856|2023|Ordinary election|348","CO-ALC-05856|2019|Ordinary election|349","CO-ALC-05856|2015|Ordinary election|350"],"shares":[[0.45770567786790267,0.2925840092699884],[0.6405390539053906,0.23212321232123212],[0.376733921815889,0.3707440100882724]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[45.77056778679027,0,0,0,0,24.97103128621089,0,0,0,0,29.258400926998842],[64.05390539053906,0,0,0,11.826182618261827,0,0.9075907590759076,0,0,0,23.212321232123212],[37.07440100882724,15.384615384615385,0,0,37.6733921815889,0,0,9.867591424968474,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":31.017110981086525,"volatility_previous":51.09941637291094,"volatility_mean":41.058263676998735,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05858","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Vegachi","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.491919033422256,4.871423397319809,29.778554778554778],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05858|2023|Ordinary election|351","CO-ALC-05858|2019|Ordinary election|352","CO-ALC-05858|2015|Ordinary election|353"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05858|2023|Ordinary election|351","CO-ALC-05858|2019|Ordinary election|352","CO-ALC-05858|2015|Ordinary election|353"],"shares":[[0.48611329044406093,0.43119410010983833],[0.40492575153929733,0.35621151756609926],[0.5303030303030303,0.23251748251748253]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":61.32783041447614,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[18.978243978243977,53.03030303030303,0,0,0,0,0,4.73970473970474,0,0,23.251748251748253]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05861","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Venecia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2024,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,16.606156274664563,4.99776219603163],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2024-12-29 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05861|CO-ALC-05861-2024-12-29-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6801","CO-ALC-05861|2023|Ordinary election|354","CO-ALC-05861|2019|Ordinary election|355"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05861|CO-ALC-05861-2024-12-29-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6801","CO-ALC-05861|2023|Ordinary election|354","CO-ALC-05861|2019|Ordinary election|355","CO-ALC-05861|2015|Ordinary election|356"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.5097079715864247,0.343646408839779],[0.4814262270625093,0.431448605102193]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,14.09629044988161,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,85.90370955011838],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.8056094286140534,0,99.19439057138595]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":14.09629044988162,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05873","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Vigia Del Fuerte","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.658341658341655,3.9361223571749875,16.265839151797252],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05873|2023|Ordinary election|357","CO-ALC-05873|2019|Ordinary election|358","CO-ALC-05873|2015|Ordinary election|359"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05873|2023|Ordinary election|357","CO-ALC-05873|2019|Ordinary election|358","CO-ALC-05873|2015|Ordinary election|359"],"shares":[[0.44975024975024974,0.4331668331668332],[0.5186684660368871,0.4793072424651372],[0.5813291957589862,0.4186708042410137]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":80.98787191331394,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,43.31668331668332,0,0,0,0,56.683316683316676],[0.20242914979757085,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,99.79757085020242],[0,0,0,0,0,41.867080424101374,0,0,0,0,58.132919575898626]],"volatility_latest":43.31668331668332,"volatility_previous":41.86708042410137,"volatility_mean":42.59188187039234,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05885","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Yali","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.3417071081929777,4.04797601199401,11.60140268848626],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05885|2023|Ordinary election|360","CO-ALC-05885|2019|Ordinary election|361","CO-ALC-05885|2015|Ordinary election|362"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05885|2023|Ordinary election|360","CO-ALC-05885|2019|Ordinary election|361","CO-ALC-05885|2015|Ordinary election|362"],"shares":[[0.4450471024835855,0.43163003140165573],[0.52023988005997,0.4797601199400299],[0.511104617182934,0.3950905902980713]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":84.10221331318692,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,44.50471024835855,0,4.196403083071653,0,0,0,0,51.29888666856979],[0,0,0,47.976011994002995,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.023988005997005],[51.110461718293394,0,0,0,9.380479251899475,0,0,0,0,0,39.50905902980713]],"volatility_latest":4.196403083071655,"volatility_previous":60.49094097019287,"volatility_mean":32.34367202663226,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05887","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Yarumal","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.859753281878753,22.18336988087477,38.54914093871371],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05887|2023|Ordinary election|363","CO-ALC-05887|2019|Ordinary election|364","CO-ALC-05887|2015|Ordinary election|365"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05887|2023|Ordinary election|363","CO-ALC-05887|2019|Ordinary election|364","CO-ALC-05887|2015|Ordinary election|365"],"shares":[[0.38221518569826507,0.24361765287947754],[0.5151425354116044,0.29330883660285667],[0.5324863405964058,0.14699493120926865]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":5.871114863694727,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[12.289728873936275,0,24.361765287947755,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,63.34850583811597],[51.514253541160436,0,0,0,29.330883660285664,0,0,0,0,0,19.154862798553904],[14.699493120926865,11.019682706865908,5.2662760845237315,0,8.676189849252847,6.622342176288592,53.24863405964058,0,0.46738200250148115,0,0]],"volatility_latest":68.55540832750982,"volatility_previous":76.62431702982029,"volatility_mean":72.58986267866506,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05890","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Yolombo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.6149570490146523,12.131919905771497,10.127991096271565],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05890|2023|Ordinary election|366","CO-ALC-05890|2019|Ordinary election|367","CO-ALC-05890|2015|Ordinary election|368"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05890|2023|Ordinary election|366","CO-ALC-05890|2019|Ordinary election|367","CO-ALC-05890|2015|Ordinary election|368"],"shares":[[0.3081101566447701,0.28196058615462355],[0.4914278235833006,0.3701086245255856],[0.5471619365609349,0.4458820255982192]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":68.89325344616302,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,28.05709954522486,0,0,0,1.0737746336533602,0,0,0.5558362809499747,0,70.31328954017181],[0,0,0,1.321816516162806,0,0,0,0,0,0,98.67818348383719],[0,0,0,0,0.6956037840845855,54.71619365609349,0,0,0,0,44.58820255982192]],"volatility_latest":29.68671045982819,"volatility_previous":55.41179744017807,"volatility_mean":42.549253950003134,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05893","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Yondo-Casabe","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.056391627746066,28.12168751324995,4.053751399776036],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05893|2023|Ordinary election|369","CO-ALC-05893|2019|Ordinary election|370","CO-ALC-05893|2015|Ordinary election|371"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05893|2023|Ordinary election|369","CO-ALC-05893|2019|Ordinary election|370","CO-ALC-05893|2015|Ordinary election|371"],"shares":[[0.36282650060543165,0.32226258432797095],[0.4533601865592538,0.1721433114267543],[0.2837625979843225,0.24322508398656215]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":43.621418146998856,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,32.226258432797096,0,0,0,0,10.465317419131638,0,0,0,57.30842414807127],[0,15.815136739453042,0,16.959932160271357,0,0,0,0,0,0,67.2249311002756],[0.1791713325867861,0,0,10.167973124300111,0,0,16.539753639417693,24.322508398656215,0,3.493840985442329,45.296752519596865]],"volatility_latest":26.87643911247569,"volatility_previous":44.535274356103024,"volatility_mean":35.705856734289355,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-05895","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Zaragoza","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.792999020219114,19.635721587213084,10.887642622316768],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-05895|2023|Ordinary election|372","CO-ALC-05895|2019|Ordinary election|373","CO-ALC-05895|2015|Ordinary election|374"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-05895|2023|Ordinary election|372","CO-ALC-05895|2019|Ordinary election|373","CO-ALC-05895|2015|Ordinary election|374"],"shares":[[0.4668210563819364,0.34889106617974525],[0.5519003810054828,0.35554316513335193],[0.5129568748791337,0.40408044865596593]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":29.723599247364653,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0.9619666874498976,0,0,0,0,0,0,99.0380333125501],[0,0,9.255645386116532,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,90.74435461388347],[40.408044865596594,0,0,51.29568748791336,0,0,8.29626764649004,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":9.255645386116527,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":54.62782269305826,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-08001","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Barranquilla","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[71.4477529730694,58.61352660485244,60.784756706443694],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-08001|2023|Ordinary election|375","CO-ALC-08001|2019|Ordinary election|376","CO-ALC-08001|2015|Ordinary election|377"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-08001|2023|Ordinary election|375","CO-ALC-08001|2019|Ordinary election|376","CO-ALC-08001|2015|Ordinary election|377"],"shares":[[0.8186481575496459,0.10417062781895199],[0.7455050203045563,0.15936975425603192],[0.8039237835322184,0.1960762164677815]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,81.8648157549646,0,0,0,0,10.417062781895199,0,7.718121463140212],[0,0,0,74.55050203045563,0,4.796966444049,4.715556099892173,0,15.936975425603192,0,0],[0,0,0,80.39237835322184,0,0,0,0,0,0,19.60762164677815]],"volatility_latest":15.03243518764917,"volatility_previous":25.449497969544364,"volatility_mean":20.24096657859677,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-08078","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Baranoa","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[19.63591517198853,46.84711218449033,13.182855084644011],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-08078|2023|Ordinary election|378","CO-ALC-08078|2019|Ordinary election|379","CO-ALC-08078|2015|Ordinary election|380"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-08078|2023|Ordinary election|378","CO-ALC-08078|2019|Ordinary election|379","CO-ALC-08078|2015|Ordinary election|380"],"shares":[[0.5682457974744631,0.37188664575457786],[0.6296056313138751,0.16113450946897181],[0.44459118741745707,0.31276263657101694]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,37.188664575457786,0,0,0,0,0,0.16890533258264295,0,0,62.64243009195957],[16.11345094689718,0,0,0,0,0,8.844579271345683,9.454245574765116,1.1780991370423821,0,64.40962506994964],[23.250090046824347,0,44.459118741745705,31.276263657101694,0,0,0,0,1.0145275543282506,0,0]],"volatility_latest":37.188664575457786,"volatility_previous":82.87202149877457,"volatility_mean":60.03034303711618,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-08137","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Campo De La Cruz","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[23.130654603512504,4.1045511262888255,1.767877662865729],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-08137|2023|Ordinary election|381","CO-ALC-08137|2019|Ordinary election|382","CO-ALC-08137|2015|Ordinary election|383"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-08137|2023|Ordinary election|381","CO-ALC-08137|2019|Ordinary election|382","CO-ALC-08137|2015|Ordinary election|383"],"shares":[[0.6090340606705694,0.3777275146354444],[0.4769816772837722,0.435936166020884],[0.4956245027844073,0.47794572615575]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":23.567270668596386,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,37.77275146354444,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,62.227248536455555],[0,47.69816772837722,0,43.593616602088396,7.861036317068366,0,0.2758258356866093,0,0,0,0.571353516779405],[0,0,49.56245027844073,47.794572615575,0.15026960134358702,1.3347476354636258,0,0.14143021302925837,0.804384336603907,0,0.21214531954388757]],"volatility_latest":61.65589501967615,"volatility_previous":56.04396847702412,"volatility_mean":58.84993174835014,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-08141","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Candelaria","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.6697247706422047,12.06229444766879,5.051705693569474],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-08141|2023|Ordinary election|384","CO-ALC-08141|2019|Ordinary election|385","CO-ALC-08141|2015|Ordinary election|386"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-08141|2023|Ordinary election|384","CO-ALC-08141|2019|Ordinary election|385","CO-ALC-08141|2015|Ordinary election|386"],"shares":[[0.3954315671222618,0.3587343194158397],[0.36902689108144704,0.24840394660475915],[0.5252585284678474,0.4747414715321526]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":68.37153116978547,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,35.87343194158397,0,7.105410971728141,0,0,0,2.36847032390938,0,0,54.65268676277851],[24.540530083188237,24.840394660475916,0.1257496614432192,36.902689108144706,0,0,1.1220739021087252,0.24182627200619075,12.110659702070032,0.11607661056297155,0],[0,0,0,47.47414715321526,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.52585284678474]],"volatility_latest":67.81236809578975,"volatility_previous":63.097310891855294,"volatility_mean":65.45483949382252,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-08296|2023|Ordinary election|387","CO-ALC-08296|2019|Ordinary election|388","CO-ALC-08296|2015|Ordinary election|389"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-08296|2023|Ordinary election|387","CO-ALC-08296|2019|Ordinary election|388","CO-ALC-08296|2015|Ordinary election|389"],"shares":[[0.5031818955249276,0.4563212523396291],[0.5067185579680459,0.4049569848422777],[0.5627215393822216,0.4182663536343967]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":63.45481178815396,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,50.31818955249277,0,0,49.68181044750724],[0,0,0,0,3.740270380991397,1.9950839819746007,0,40.49569848422777,0,0,53.76894715280623],[0.9575104727707959,0,41.82663536343967,56.27215393822216,0,0,0,0,0.943700225567371,0,0]],"volatility_latest":9.82249106826499,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":54.9112455341325,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-08372","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Juan De Acosta","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[21.818308679877198,23.861043644660338,10.193124449074446],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-08372|2023|Ordinary election|390","CO-ALC-08372|2019|Ordinary election|391","CO-ALC-08372|2015|Ordinary election|392"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-08372|2023|Ordinary election|390","CO-ALC-08372|2019|Ordinary election|391","CO-ALC-08372|2015|Ordinary election|392"],"shares":[[0.5971950879151549,0.3790120011163829],[0.5417678663428277,0.3031574298962243],[0.5437134385768091,0.4417821940860646]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[37.90120011163829,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,62.098799888361704],[30.315742989622432,0,0,0,15.507470376094796,0,0,0,0,0,54.17678663428277],[54.371343857680905,0.9055212757432487,44.17821940860646,0,0.5449154579693886,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":15.507470376094794,"volatility_previous":69.13934155240818,"volatility_mean":42.32340596425149,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-08421","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Luruaco","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[21.381838691483363,7.6168224299065415,5.153831079757005],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-08421|2023|Ordinary election|393","CO-ALC-08421|2019|Ordinary election|394","CO-ALC-08421|2015|Ordinary election|395"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-08421|2023|Ordinary election|393","CO-ALC-08421|2019|Ordinary election|394","CO-ALC-08421|2015|Ordinary election|395"],"shares":[[0.4611393119007332,0.2473209249858996],[0.5355724299065421,0.45940420560747663],[0.4725978182768306,0.4210595074792606]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":21.852334740811607,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.0642978003384096,0,0,24.73209249858996,0,16.006768189509305,0,46.11393119007332,0,0,11.082910321489],[0,53.5572429906542,0,45.94042056074766,0,0,0,0.5023364485981309,0,0,0],[0,0,42.10595074792606,47.259781827683064,2.3515579071134627,0.7381278986217258,0,0,7.544581618655693,0,0]],"volatility_latest":74.76557105281191,"volatility_previous":54.05957943925234,"volatility_mean":64.41257524603212,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-08433","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Malambo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[19.594080338266387,5.667908931946236,37.17057024343235],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-08433|2023|Ordinary election|396","CO-ALC-08433|2019|Ordinary election|397","CO-ALC-08433|2015|Ordinary election|398"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-08433|2023|Ordinary election|396","CO-ALC-08433|2019|Ordinary election|397","CO-ALC-08433|2015|Ordinary election|398"],"shares":[[0.5559915433403806,0.3600507399577167],[0.37758976985711007,0.3209106805376477],[0.5628901830980014,0.19118448066367788]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":14.130610465565297,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-08436","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Manati","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.5798969072164937,0.009519276534980747,12.791817087845967],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-08436|2023|Ordinary election|399","CO-ALC-08436|2019|Ordinary election|400","CO-ALC-08436|2015|Ordinary election|401"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-08436|2023|Ordinary election|399","CO-ALC-08436|2019|Ordinary election|400","CO-ALC-08436|2015|Ordinary election|401"],"shares":[[0.3663475699558174,0.3605486008836525],[0.3095668729176582,0.3094716801523084],[0.4126353790613718,0.28471720818291213]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":91.85012181962506,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[36.054860088365245,0,26.932989690721648,36.63475699558174,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.37739322533136965],[30.947168015230844,3.883864826273203,30.956687291765824,27.900999524036173,0,0,0,3.0556877677296526,0,0,3.255592574964303],[41.26353790613718,0,28.471720818291214,23.008423586040916,0.7942238267148014,0,0,0,0.6257521058965102,0,5.836341756919374]],"volatility_latest":13.841449544679966,"volatility_previous":14.317095005472721,"volatility_mean":14.079272275076343,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-08520","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Palmar De Varela","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.9119122622797775,8.768633345859953,3.434600948941288],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-08520|2023|Ordinary election|402","CO-ALC-08520|2019|Ordinary election|403","CO-ALC-08520|2015|Ordinary election|404"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-08520|2023|Ordinary election|402","CO-ALC-08520|2019|Ordinary election|403","CO-ALC-08520|2015|Ordinary election|404"],"shares":[[0.49130789872826974,0.44218877610547197],[0.5395214831516973,0.45183514969309785],[0.5078252248424332,0.47347921535302034]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":70.39401271990009,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,49.13078987282697,0,0,0,0,0,0,50.86921012717303],[53.95214831516974,0,0,0,0,0,0.864336715520481,0,0,0,45.18351496930978],[47.347921535302035,0,50.78252248424332,1.869555980454642,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":54.81648503069022,"volatility_previous":52.652078464697965,"volatility_mean":53.73428174769409,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-08549","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Piojo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.0700286280554963,3.2250300842358612,2.4560496380558448],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-08549|2023|Ordinary election|405","CO-ALC-08549|2019|Ordinary election|406","CO-ALC-08549|2015|Ordinary election|407"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-08549|2023|Ordinary election|405","CO-ALC-08549|2019|Ordinary election|406","CO-ALC-08549|2015|Ordinary election|407"],"shares":[[0.4846950011010791,0.4639947148205241],[0.38435619735258725,0.35210589651022867],[0.3267838676318511,0.30222337125129267]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":87.7243441704518,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[4.316229905307201,48.46950011010791,0,0.26425897379431845,0,0,46.39947148205241,0,0,0,0.5505395287381634],[0,0,0,35.210589651022865,26.353790613718413,0,0,0,0,0,38.435619735258726],[32.67838676318511,0,21.69079627714581,30.222337125129265,0,0.07755946225439504,0,15.33092037228542,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":99.18520149746752,"volatility_previous":69.77766287487074,"volatility_mean":84.48143218616913,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-08558","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Polonuevo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.431179127869456,5.189209441738477,8.837373499646976],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-08558|2023|Ordinary election|408","CO-ALC-08558|2019|Ordinary election|409","CO-ALC-08558|2015|Ordinary election|410"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-08558|2023|Ordinary election|408","CO-ALC-08558|2019|Ordinary election|409","CO-ALC-08558|2015|Ordinary election|410"],"shares":[[0.46381487969023694,0.3695030884115424],[0.510584488572499,0.4586923941551143],[0.37691221463873853,0.28853847964226875]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":59.50396170396043,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-08560","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Ponedera","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2026,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,1.5252375105021656,29.455409883302117],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2026-02-01 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-08560|CO-ALC-08560-2026-02-01-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6780","CO-ALC-08560|2023|Ordinary election|411","CO-ALC-08560|2019|Ordinary election|412"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-08560|CO-ALC-08560-2026-02-01-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6780","CO-ALC-08560|2023|Ordinary election|411","CO-ALC-08560|2019|Ordinary election|412","CO-ALC-08560|2015|Ordinary election|413"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.4388935565178052,0.42364118141278356],[0.5346491859962541,0.24009508716323297]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,11.962773864150456,43.88935565178052,0,1.7837523427906676,0,0,42.364118141278354],[24.009508716323296,0,0,0,0,0,0.22331076213802045,22.30226192191327,0,0,53.46491859962541]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":55.852129515930976,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-08573","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Puerto Colombia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.947728686994402,8.922318765400078,10.298836742880063],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-08573|2023|Ordinary election|414","CO-ALC-08573|2019|Ordinary election|415","CO-ALC-08573|2015|Ordinary election|416"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-08573|2023|Ordinary election|414","CO-ALC-08573|2019|Ordinary election|415","CO-ALC-08573|2015|Ordinary election|416"],"shares":[[0.5087118855009334,0.3892345986309894],[0.4587385985388838,0.36951541088488304],[0.48450661853188925,0.3815182511030886]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":45.62391741947665,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,50.87118855009334,0,0,0,0,0,0,2.139079029247044,0,46.989732420659614],[7.322872087494056,0,45.87385985388838,36.951541088488305,0,0,4.020230839061082,0,0,0,5.831496131068171],[0,0,38.15182511030886,48.450661853188926,0,0,5.555555555555555,0,0,0,7.84195748094665]],"volatility_latest":94.16850386893182,"volatility_previous":15.044906831073575,"volatility_mean":54.6067053500027,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-08606","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Repelon","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.965824766832323,16.700187252930164,16.946722943378198],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-08606|2023|Ordinary election|417","CO-ALC-08606|2019|Ordinary election|418","CO-ALC-08606|2015|Ordinary election|419"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-08606|2023|Ordinary election|417","CO-ALC-08606|2019|Ordinary election|418","CO-ALC-08606|2015|Ordinary election|419"],"shares":[[0.4562597862345973,0.27660153856627406],[0.5188986753589014,0.35189680282959984],[0.5393804252608106,0.3699131958270287]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":12.57888334841869,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-08634|2023|Ordinary election|420","CO-ALC-08634|2019|Ordinary election|421","CO-ALC-08634|2015|Ordinary election|422"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-08634|2023|Ordinary election|420","CO-ALC-08634|2019|Ordinary election|421","CO-ALC-08634|2015|Ordinary election|422"],"shares":[[0.5392316159127837,0.43110225902825094],[0.5180155514182455,0.29695542656883145],[0.43630535438679807,0.3877478333135463]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":31.97429815356546,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,53.92316159127837,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,46.07683840872163],[0,51.80155514182455,29.695542656883145,0,0,0,0,0,0.18070309933194612,0,18.322199101960354],[0,38.77478333135463,17.59468122996557,43.63053543867981,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":51.9822582411565,"volatility_previous":43.6305354386798,"volatility_mean":47.80639683991815,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-08638","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Sabanalarga","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.396099172253788,13.895416060572153,21.204865639096134],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-08638|2023|Ordinary election|423","CO-ALC-08638|2019|Ordinary election|424","CO-ALC-08638|2015|Ordinary election|425"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-08638|2023|Ordinary election|423","CO-ALC-08638|2019|Ordinary election|424","CO-ALC-08638|2015|Ordinary election|425"],"shares":[[0.3668626255873852,0.22290163386484732],[0.5608891872738802,0.4219350266681586],[0.5605960194112491,0.34854736302028777]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":25.366145572832345,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,22.290163386484732,0,0,0,0,0,0,77.70983661351528],[0,0,0,56.08891872738801,0,0.2778710230875387,1.0723210622505688,0,0,0,42.56088918727388],[34.854736302028776,56.05960194112491,0,8.333155183102807,0.04061825256001881,0,0,0,0,0,0.7118883211834877]],"volatility_latest":35.14894742624139,"volatility_previous":90.9549564957137,"volatility_mean":63.05195196097755,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-08675","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Santa Lucia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.5786935554581305,1.1796427367711466,2.9548762736535608],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-08675|2023|Ordinary election|426","CO-ALC-08675|2019|Ordinary election|427","CO-ALC-08675|2015|Ordinary election|428"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-08675|2023|Ordinary election|426","CO-ALC-08675|2019|Ordinary election|427","CO-ALC-08675|2015|Ordinary election|428"],"shares":[[0.47523016220955716,0.41944322665497585],[0.31221211099876417,0.3004156836310527],[0.35443959243085876,0.32489082969432315]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":80.0170170916421,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[41.94432266549759,0,0,47.52301622095572,0,0,0,0,0,0,10.53266111354669],[31.221211099876417,0.8538366475676891,30.04156836310527,15.413998427143017,0,0,0.03370407819346141,13.23446803729918,0,7.706999213571509,1.4942141332434558],[35.44395924308588,29.78165938864629,0.32023289665211063,32.48908296943232,0,0.11644832605531295,0,0.08733624454148471,0,0,1.7612809315866085]],"volatility_latest":51.870576339737106,"volatility_previous":50.609170550975826,"volatility_mean":51.239873445356466,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-08685","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Santo Tomas","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.470527723485237,23.309165674710528,31.496845057256373],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-08685|2023|Ordinary election|429","CO-ALC-08685|2019|Ordinary election|430","CO-ALC-08685|2015|Ordinary election|431"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-08685|2023|Ordinary election|429","CO-ALC-08685|2019|Ordinary election|430","CO-ALC-08685|2015|Ordinary election|431"],"shares":[[0.38324246476699925,0.3185371875321469],[0.5072502975868413,0.27415864083973596],[0.5767702734283712,0.26180182285580744]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":29.87624578885032,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-08758","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Soledad","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.395804620655127,5.316300447477552,10.931141075916052],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-08758|2023|Ordinary election|432","CO-ALC-08758|2019|Ordinary election|433","CO-ALC-08758|2015|Ordinary election|434"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-08758|2023|Ordinary election|432","CO-ALC-08758|2019|Ordinary election|433","CO-ALC-08758|2015|Ordinary election|434"],"shares":[[0.4789696625357912,0.30501161632923995],[0.3486924790984876,0.2955294746237121],[0.497490715275873,0.3881793045167125]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":34.372564928860264,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,30.501161632923996,0,0.6868541405322698,0,0,0.844926223652309,0,67.96705800289142],[0,0,0,29.552947462371208,0,2.561611647773845,0.9641714379390532,24.100642983345576,0,0,42.82062646857032],[38.81793045167125,0.06671658055285806,5.563421522768887,49.749071527587304,0,0,0.07190564792919146,0,1.0808086049563006,1.909576794490693,2.7405688700435142]],"volatility_latest":26.939571928526203,"volatility_previous":67.63457801965609,"volatility_mean":47.28707497409115,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-08770","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Suan","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.414486921529175,14.71270291162071,12.600157109190889],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-08770|2023|Ordinary election|435","CO-ALC-08770|2019|Ordinary election|436","CO-ALC-08770|2015|Ordinary election|437"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-08770|2023|Ordinary election|435","CO-ALC-08770|2019|Ordinary election|436","CO-ALC-08770|2015|Ordinary election|437"],"shares":[[0.5089285714285715,0.4847837022132797],[0.5735635145581035,0.42643648544189644],[0.5611940298507463,0.4351924587588374]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":64.38740631338597,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[48.47837022132797,0,0,50.892857142857146,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.6287726358148893],[0,42.643648544189645,57.356351455810355,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[0,0,56.11940298507463,43.51924587588374,0.36135113904163396,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":100.0,"volatility_previous":43.88059701492537,"volatility_mean":71.94029850746269,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-08832","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Tubara","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[35.87529976019185,16.448885472713297,8.245419211549134],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-08832|2023|Ordinary election|438","CO-ALC-08832|2019|Ordinary election|439","CO-ALC-08832|2015|Ordinary election|440"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-08832|2023|Ordinary election|438","CO-ALC-08832|2019|Ordinary election|439","CO-ALC-08832|2015|Ordinary election|440"],"shares":[[0.6194244604316547,0.2606714628297362],[0.3977709454265949,0.23328209069946193],[0.5412270960577457,0.45877290394225434]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[26.06714628297362,0,0,61.94244604316547,0,0,0,0,0,0,11.990407673860911],[23.328209069946194,9.710479118626697,0,39.77709454265949,0,0,13.271842172687677,0,0,0,13.912375096079938],[45.87729039422543,0,54.12270960577457,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":24.904288713533404,"volatility_previous":76.6717909300538,"volatility_mean":50.7880398217936,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-08849","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Usiacuri","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.587443946188344,4.433272394881172,10.322365124436281],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-08849|2023|Ordinary election|441","CO-ALC-08849|2019|Ordinary election|442","CO-ALC-08849|2015|Ordinary election|443"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-08849|2023|Ordinary election|441","CO-ALC-08849|2019|Ordinary election|442","CO-ALC-08849|2015|Ordinary election|443"],"shares":[[0.3681334080717489,0.3322589686098654],[0.38040828762949425,0.33607556368068253],[0.4210790045097712,0.31785535326540837]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":77.42657700689507,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,36.81334080717489,5.325112107623318,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,57.86154708520179],[6.962218159658745,33.60755636806825,0.4570383912248629,38.040828762949424,0,0,0,0,0,20.399146861669713,0.5332114564290067],[25.38834140638049,31.78553532654084,42.10790045097712,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.7182228161015534]],"volatility_latest":65.40219378427788,"volatility_previous":60.26199666614655,"volatility_mean":62.832095225212214,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-11011","country":"Colombia","region":"Bogota D.C.","name":"Bogota. D.C.","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":2,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[30.371883838291755,2.8348060165884448,4.837431092809329],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Bogotá 2015/2019 source code 11001 is explicitly joined to the same named 2023 unit coded 11011. Three ordinary source cycles are now present.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2817","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2745"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-11011|2023|Ordinary election|444","CO-ALC-11011|2019|Ordinary election|6822","CO-ALC-11011|2015|Ordinary election|6821"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-11011|2023|Ordinary election|444","CO-ALC-11011|2019|Ordinary election|6822","CO-ALC-11011|2015|Ordinary election|6821"],"shares":[[0.5159503375085707,0.2122314991256531],[0.3701030172358734,0.34175495706998893],[0.34432048180500546,0.29594617087691216]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2817","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2745"],"comparison_ci":2.213423913837409,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,1.0717501146472974,0,0,0,0,0,0,98.9282498853527],null,[0,0,0,0,12.449390789370678,0.03648195397345482,0,0,18.985740876281334,0,68.52838638037451]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":1,"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":2},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13001","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Cartagena","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[30.866786855398672,3.178913546499782,8.689904347519168],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13001|2023|Ordinary election|445","CO-ALC-13001|2019|Ordinary election|446","CO-ALC-13001|2015|Ordinary election|447"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13001|2023|Ordinary election|445","CO-ALC-13001|2019|Ordinary election|446","CO-ALC-13001|2015|Ordinary election|447"],"shares":[[0.47792275791490396,0.16925488936091726],[0.342406095265499,0.31061695980050114],[0.40892157523367634,0.32202253175848466]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,13.447289860806388,0,0,1.2126988694265606,0,0,0,0.5263220995336235,84.81368917023342],[32.20225317584847,0,0,0,7.083289213185346,1.232797153207615,0,0,1.1342888955202808,0.5239869211837677,57.823384641054524]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":40.439929568335145,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13006","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Achi","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[23.434761828899155,6.591717890650273,8.664393031615816],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13006|2023|Ordinary election|448","CO-ALC-13006|2019|Ordinary election|449","CO-ALC-13006|2015|Ordinary election|450"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13006|2023|Ordinary election|448","CO-ALC-13006|2019|Ordinary election|449","CO-ALC-13006|2015|Ordinary election|450"],"shares":[[0.4673410865062928,0.23299346821730127],[0.5290359107085085,0.46311873180200586],[0.5391280302332012,0.4524840999170431]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":15.475941161519223,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[23.299346821730126,46.73410865062928,0,0,0,2.4295045403855346,11.008443523976421,0,0,0,16.528596463278635],[0,52.90359107085086,0.056615981882885795,0.234551924943384,46.311873180200585,0.4286638628275639,0.06470397929472663,0,0,0,0],[0.11982671213936769,53.91280302332012,0.3318278182320951,45.24840999170431,0,0.2949580606507512,0.09217439395335976,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":52.77252350724843,"volatility_previous":46.4455789823774,"volatility_mean":49.60905124481292,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13030","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Altos Del Rosario","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.836909871244636,18.953722334004027,24.711111111111116],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13030|2023|Ordinary election|451","CO-ALC-13030|2019|Ordinary election|452","CO-ALC-13030|2015|Ordinary election|453"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13030|2023|Ordinary election|451","CO-ALC-13030|2019|Ordinary election|452","CO-ALC-13030|2015|Ordinary election|453"],"shares":[[0.5052360515021459,0.48686695278969955],[0.48209255533199197,0.2925553319919517],[0.6142222222222222,0.3671111111111111]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":53.70313132970449,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[48.68669527896996,0,0,0,0,0,0,50.52360515021459,0,0,0.7896995708154506],[0,0.2414486921529175,0,48.2092555331992,22.293762575452718,0,0,0,0,0,29.25553319919517],[0,36.71111111111111,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.8666666666666667,61.422222222222224]],"volatility_latest":99.21030042918456,"volatility_previous":70.50301810865191,"volatility_mean":84.85665926891824,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13042","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Arenal","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[27.46703955253696,52.34452122408687,15.827154180516494],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13042|2023|Ordinary election|454","CO-ALC-13042|2019|Ordinary election|455","CO-ALC-13042|2015|Ordinary election|456"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13042|2023|Ordinary election|454","CO-ALC-13042|2019|Ordinary election|455","CO-ALC-13042|2015|Ordinary election|456"],"shares":[[0.5201757890531362,0.24550539352776668],[0.7477788746298124,0.22433366238894373],[0.5520327282025057,0.3937611863973408]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0.05992808629644426,0,0,0,0,99.94007191370356],[2.2458045409674234,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.5429417571569596,0,0,97.21125370187562],[5.369470723600102,0,0,0,0,0.05113781641523907,0,0,0,39.37611863973408,55.203272820250575]],"volatility_latest":2.788746298124385,"volatility_previous":42.550922638782005,"volatility_mean":22.669834468453196,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13052","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Arjona","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.102496206599028,3.5355348169418477,23.00070771408351],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13052|2023|Ordinary election|457","CO-ALC-13052|2019|Ordinary election|458","CO-ALC-13052|2015|Ordinary election|459"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13052|2023|Ordinary election|457","CO-ALC-13052|2019|Ordinary election|458","CO-ALC-13052|2015|Ordinary election|459"],"shares":[[0.2898455862664009,0.2388206242004106],[0.4470268006700167,0.4116714525005982],[0.5377953021265123,0.3077882249856772]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":67.88885529774838,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[19.20502216536253,23.88206242004106,0,0,0,1.0353753235547887,0,0,0,0,55.87754009104161],[0,41.167145250059825,44.70268006700167,7.2505384063173,0,0,0,0,0,0,6.879636276621201],[3.9193879958211166,30.77882249856772,0,53.77953021265123,0,4.397937518956628,5.193273346139589,0,0,0,1.9310484278637146]],"volatility_latest":69.23830130333774,"volatility_previous":60.03959066725127,"volatility_mean":64.6389459852945,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13062","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Arroyo Hondo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[52.792820671514775,14.430665163472383,17.183538131460892],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13062|2023|Ordinary election|460","CO-ALC-13062|2019|Ordinary election|461","CO-ALC-13062|2015|Ordinary election|462"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13062|2023|Ordinary election|460","CO-ALC-13062|2019|Ordinary election|461","CO-ALC-13062|2015|Ordinary election|462"],"shares":[[0.7589354788797772,0.23100727216462943],[0.5721533258173619,0.4278466741826381],[0.5859176906573045,0.4140823093426955]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13074","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Barranco De Loba","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.3558611046376186,10.291934685799106,10.344827586206897],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13074|2023|Ordinary election|463","CO-ALC-13074|2019|Ordinary election|464","CO-ALC-13074|2015|Ordinary election|465"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13074|2023|Ordinary election|463","CO-ALC-13074|2019|Ordinary election|464","CO-ALC-13074|2015|Ordinary election|465"],"shares":[[0.4947564670240038,0.4611978559776276],[0.5461405244928254,0.44322117763483426],[0.5484587251828631,0.44501044932079414]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":69.32210086428505,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[46.11978559776276,0,0.1631321370309951,0,0,0,0.04660918200885574,0.2563505010487066,0,0,53.414122582148686],[44.322117763483426,0,0,0,54.61405244928253,0.13607125185551708,0.16081147946561108,0.04948045522018803,0.6308758040573973,0,0.08659079663532905],[0,0,44.50104493207942,54.84587251828631,0,0.522466039707419,0,0,0,0,0.13061650992685475]],"volatility_latest":55.495201802652204,"volatility_previous":99.77733795150915,"volatility_mean":77.63626987708068,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13140","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Calamar","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.6535057862491485,0.5582377791188904,14.915749656121047],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13140|2023|Ordinary election|466","CO-ALC-13140|2019|Ordinary election|467","CO-ALC-13140|2015|Ordinary election|468"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13140|2023|Ordinary election|466","CO-ALC-13140|2019|Ordinary election|467","CO-ALC-13140|2015|Ordinary election|468"],"shares":[[0.4892443839346494,0.4827093260721579],[0.3820911285455643,0.3765087507543754],[0.46449449793672626,0.3153370013755158]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":89.7442511445137,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13160","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Cantagallo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.8753973299427855,0.26070763500931093,9.386110452713915],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13160|2023|Ordinary election|469","CO-ALC-13160|2019|Ordinary election|470","CO-ALC-13160|2015|Ordinary election|471"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13160|2023|Ordinary election|469","CO-ALC-13160|2019|Ordinary election|470","CO-ALC-13160|2015|Ordinary election|471"],"shares":[[0.5089001907183726,0.49014621741894465],[0.4692737430167597,0.4666666666666666],[0.47191277553922734,0.37805167101208814]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":89.28969133130073,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[50.89001907183725,0,0,0,0,0,0.09535918626827718,0,0,0,49.014621741894466],[46.927374301675975,46.666666666666664,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,6.405959031657356],[0,47.19127755392273,0.1422137947380896,0,0,0.11851149561507467,0.09480919649205972,1.8013747333491348,12.846646124674093,37.805167101208816,0]],"volatility_latest":46.666666666666664,"volatility_previous":53.333333333333336,"volatility_mean":50.0,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13188","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Cicuco","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[31.211274450249064,5.674310143801016,10.744792447175179],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13188|2023|Ordinary election|472","CO-ALC-13188|2019|Ordinary election|473","CO-ALC-13188|2015|Ordinary election|474"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13188|2023|Ordinary election|472","CO-ALC-13188|2019|Ordinary election|473","CO-ALC-13188|2015|Ordinary election|474"],"shares":[[0.6530190742315637,0.34090632972907303],[0.41663427905169065,0.3598911776136805],[0.4882361756331485,0.3807882511613967]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[65.30190742315636,0,34.0906329729073,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.6074596039363382],[41.663427905169065,35.98911776136805,0,21.9717579997409,0,0,0,0,0.3756963337219847,0,0],[0,48.82361756331485,0,38.07882511613967,0.04495729057395474,0,0,0,0,13.052600029971527,0]],"volatility_latest":58.336572094830935,"volatility_previous":42.03912423889105,"volatility_mean":50.18784816686099,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13212","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Cordoba","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.450625411454908,9.010061085159904,8.940331271203348],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13212|2023|Ordinary election|475","CO-ALC-13212|2019|Ordinary election|476","CO-ALC-13212|2015|Ordinary election|477"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13212|2023|Ordinary election|475","CO-ALC-13212|2019|Ordinary election|476","CO-ALC-13212|2015|Ordinary election|477"],"shares":[[0.5576859776168532,0.4331797235023041],[0.5439274164570608,0.4538268056054617],[0.5447016563560168,0.45529834364398325]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":44.66286650229374,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[55.76859776168532,43.31797235023041,0,0,0,0,0,0.913429888084266,0,0,0],[0,45.38268056054617,0,0,0.1706791232482932,0,0,54.392741645706074,0,0,0.05389867049946101],[0,0,45.529834364398326,54.470165635601674,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":55.76859776168532,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":77.88429888084266,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13222","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Clemencia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.1621446330126517,5.019212295869359,14.482363062804705],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13222|2023|Ordinary election|478","CO-ALC-13222|2019|Ordinary election|479","CO-ALC-13222|2015|Ordinary election|480"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13222|2023|Ordinary election|478","CO-ALC-13222|2019|Ordinary election|479","CO-ALC-13222|2015|Ordinary election|480"],"shares":[[0.4803804994054697,0.47875905307534317],[0.42699327569644574,0.37680115273775217],[0.44708918841410955,0.3022655577860625]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":84.74356612575565,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13244","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"El Carmen De Bolivar","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.159286917603275,15.935391871880658,1.3214242016395445],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13244|2023|Ordinary election|481","CO-ALC-13244|2019|Ordinary election|482","CO-ALC-13244|2015|Ordinary election|483"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13244|2023|Ordinary election|481","CO-ALC-13244|2019|Ordinary election|482","CO-ALC-13244|2015|Ordinary election|483"],"shares":[[0.5109501898368157,0.359357320660783],[0.4706575988592113,0.31130368014040477],[0.3123088217300869,0.2990945797136914]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":29.95833933854941,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[51.09501898368158,35.9357320660783,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,12.969248950240123],[18.51587780398179,31.130368014040474,0,0,0,2.248669993966983,0,0,0,0,48.10508418801075],[29.909457971369143,0,29.63722011501285,0.3395326073657164,3.560504098862107,0,4.860516334271382,31.230882173008688,0,0.32729719809127616,0.13458950201884254]],"volatility_latest":37.38450523173761,"volatility_previous":81.34953269399936,"volatility_mean":59.367018962868485,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13248","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"El Guamo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.81322013341419,7.914906929454091,3.5031308173971922],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13248|2023|Ordinary election|484","CO-ALC-13248|2019|Ordinary election|485","CO-ALC-13248|2015|Ordinary election|486"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13248|2023|Ordinary election|484","CO-ALC-13248|2019|Ordinary election|485","CO-ALC-13248|2015|Ordinary election|486"],"shares":[[0.5627653123104912,0.3946331109763493],[0.5384013765055529,0.459252307211012],[0.517515654086986,0.48248434591301403]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":35.936413796877694,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,39.46331109763493,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,60.53668890236507],[0,45.9252307211012,0,53.84013765055529,0,0,0,0,0.2346316283435007,0,0],[0,51.751565408698596,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,48.248434591301404]],"volatility_latest":100.0,"volatility_previous":54.0747692788988,"volatility_mean":77.0373846394494,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13268","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"El Peñon","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.121448034254577,34.789124384500106,8.783783783783782],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13268|2023|Ordinary election|487","CO-ALC-13268|2019|Ordinary election|488","CO-ALC-13268|2015|Ordinary election|489"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13268|2023|Ordinary election|487","CO-ALC-13268|2019|Ordinary election|488","CO-ALC-13268|2015|Ordinary election|489"],"shares":[[0.5105099260412612,0.48929544569871547],[0.6739456219225005,0.32605437807749943],[0.5425425425425425,0.45470470470470475]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":37.06007742859423,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,48.929544569871545,0,0,0.01946282600233554,0,0,0,51.05099260412612],[67.39456219225005,32.605437807749944,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[54.254254254254256,0,0.15015015015015015,0,0.12512512512512514,0,45.470470470470474,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":100.0,"volatility_previous":45.745745745745744,"volatility_mean":72.87287287287288,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13300","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Hatillo De Loba","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.4937421058674971,23.32268370607029,8.20884484543707],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13300|2023|Ordinary election|490","CO-ALC-13300|2019|Ordinary election|491","CO-ALC-13300|2015|Ordinary election|492"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13300|2023|Ordinary election|490","CO-ALC-13300|2019|Ordinary election|491","CO-ALC-13300|2015|Ordinary election|492"],"shares":[[0.5007463543460787,0.49580893328740383],[0.5499201277955271,0.3166932907348243],[0.53261351871025,0.4505250702558793]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":59.43032570057354,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.19520036743598576,0,0,99.80479963256401],[54.99201277955272,0,31.669329073482427,0.19968051118210864,0,12.899361022364218,0,0.23961661341853036,0,0,0],[0,0,45.05250702558793,53.261351871025,1.686141103387073,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":99.80479963256401,"volatility_previous":68.13099041533546,"volatility_mean":83.96789502394974,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13430","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Magangue","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[25.11528301001985,10.834523242900204,7.960190363705841],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13430|2023|Ordinary election|493","CO-ALC-13430|2019|Ordinary election|494","CO-ALC-13430|2015|Ordinary election|495"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13430|2023|Ordinary election|493","CO-ALC-13430|2019|Ordinary election|494","CO-ALC-13430|2015|Ordinary election|495"],"shares":[[0.44804839541681646,0.19689556531661792],[0.5077423449151197,0.3993971124861177],[0.4896828429499427,0.4100809393128843]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":4.422270923737215,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,44.804839541681645,0,0,2.035233614180983,16.22715833242149,0,0,0.8878745720850983,0,36.04489393963078],[0,50.774234491511976,0,0,0,0,0,0,2.613041408852927,0,46.61272409963509],[0,0,0,48.96828429499427,0,7.8611873415083195,0,0,0,2.162434432208983,41.00809393128843]],"volatility_latest":18.26239194660247,"volatility_previous":58.991906068711565,"volatility_mean":38.62714900765702,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13433","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Mahates","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.661021469529274,15.271516748734307,11.004864955544377],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13433|2023|Ordinary election|496","CO-ALC-13433|2019|Ordinary election|497","CO-ALC-13433|2015|Ordinary election|498"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13433|2023|Ordinary election|496","CO-ALC-13433|2019|Ordinary election|497","CO-ALC-13433|2015|Ordinary election|498"],"shares":[[0.4675290038671823,0.39091878917188955],[0.5436576739024898,0.3909425064151467],[0.4423754403623553,0.3323267908069116]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":48.60722799053854,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[46.75290038671823,0,0,0,0,2.4469929323909856,5.1873583144419255,0,0,0,45.61274836644886],[0,39.09425064151467,0,0,54.365767390248976,0,0,0,0,0,6.539981968236355],[0,33.232679080691156,8.329139406139909,44.23754403623553,0.20130850528434827,0,0,13.26958563999329,0,0,0.7297433316557624]],"volatility_latest":93.46001803176365,"volatility_previous":65.83626908236873,"volatility_mean":79.64814355706619,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13440","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Margarita","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.610468654899577,0.4762636349669691,18.58293665324057],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13440|2023|Ordinary election|499","CO-ALC-13440|2019|Ordinary election|500","CO-ALC-13440|2015|Ordinary election|501"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13440|2023|Ordinary election|499","CO-ALC-13440|2019|Ordinary election|500","CO-ALC-13440|2015|Ordinary election|501"],"shares":[[0.5016737674984784,0.4555690809494826],[0.45675218927638656,0.45198955292671683],[0.4930428414500183,0.3072134749176126]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":76.16273025623053,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13442","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Maria La Baja","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.070027258417475,0.6877805691693091,0.9778166958552248],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13442|2023|Ordinary election|502","CO-ALC-13442|2019|Ordinary election|503","CO-ALC-13442|2015|Ordinary election|504"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13442|2023|Ordinary election|502","CO-ALC-13442|2019|Ordinary election|503","CO-ALC-13442|2015|Ordinary election|504"],"shares":[[0.526317810112489,0.44561753752831423],[0.3063712367694906,0.29949343107779747],[0.3873321657910099,0.37755399883245766]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":74.269339023066,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[44.56175375283142,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,55.438246247168586],[0.2759359169721181,0,30.637123676949056,19.282566615872494,29.949343107779747,0,0,14.92525019562621,0,0,4.92978048680038],[0,0.5886359213854836,38.73321657910099,19.420120646040086,0.19945514691574237,0,0,0,0,3.3031718233119283,37.755399883245765]],"volatility_latest":94.7942835962275,"volatility_previous":44.95107407346233,"volatility_mean":69.87267883484492,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13458","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Montecristo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[22.439690487027768,8.516963973417276,18.91404528150671],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13458|2023|Ordinary election|505","CO-ALC-13458|2019|Ordinary election|506","CO-ALC-13458|2015|Ordinary election|507"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13458|2023|Ordinary election|505","CO-ALC-13458|2019|Ordinary election|506","CO-ALC-13458|2015|Ordinary election|507"],"shares":[[0.5839781520254893,0.35958124715521167],[0.4261979713186429,0.3410283315844701],[0.5549989981967541,0.36585854538168705]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":10.448459938037423,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[58.397815202548934,0,0,5.644060081929904,0,0,0,0,0,0,35.958124715521166],[42.61979713186429,22.927597061909758,34.10283315844701,0,0,0,0.12242042672263029,0,0.2273522210563134,0,0],[0.16028851933480265,55.49989981967541,7.473452213985174,36.585854538168704,0.08014425966740132,0,0.1402524544179523,0,0.06010819475055099,0,0]],"volatility_latest":57.38020286813571,"volatility_previous":69.25613358329709,"volatility_mean":63.3181682257164,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13468","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Mompos","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.67556468172485,0.8949107180194886,4.441127075947001],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13468|2023|Ordinary election|508","CO-ALC-13468|2019|Ordinary election|509","CO-ALC-13468|2015|Ordinary election|510"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13468|2023|Ordinary election|508","CO-ALC-13468|2019|Ordinary election|509","CO-ALC-13468|2015|Ordinary election|510"],"shares":[[0.5426544707858877,0.40589882396863913],[0.4385062518295488,0.4295571446493539],[0.42200037320395595,0.37758910244448596]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":55.41037633982272,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[40.58988239686391,0.10453612096322569,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.4187044987866344,0,57.88687698338623],[42.95571446493539,3.5503700915819847,0.7150922092585623,0,0,0,43.85062518295488,0,0,0,8.928198051269185],[0,18.04441127075947,42.200037320395595,0.34987870871431237,0.24258257137525657,0.12129128568762829,37.75891024444859,0.6157865273371897,0.6671020712819556,0,0]],"volatility_latest":50.37738343090368,"volatility_previous":57.97562745471086,"volatility_mean":54.17650544280727,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13473","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Morales","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.705521472392633,4.120534185595254,0.20765736534718116],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13473|2023|Ordinary election|511","CO-ALC-13473|2019|Ordinary election|512","CO-ALC-13473|2015|Ordinary election|513"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13473|2023|Ordinary election|511","CO-ALC-13473|2019|Ordinary election|512","CO-ALC-13473|2015|Ordinary election|513"],"shares":[[0.4330265848670756,0.3759713701431493],[0.33637712589887003,0.2951717840429175],[0.4876054510058404,0.4855288773523686]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":76.59880562175563,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[37.59713701431493,14.570552147239264,43.302658486707564,0,0,0,0.06134969325153374,0,0,0,4.468302658486707],[0,29.517178404291748,27.72514553133204,33.637712589887,0,0.17121333181143705,0,0,0.09131377696609976,0,8.857436365711676],[2.6865671641791047,48.76054510058404,0,48.55288773523686,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":53.23599966294199,"volatility_previous":36.84510900582125,"volatility_mean":45.040554334381625,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13490","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Norosi","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[31.117662824979895,20.41763341067285,45.040983606557376],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13490|2023|Ordinary election|514","CO-ALC-13490|2019|Ordinary election|515","CO-ALC-13490|2015|Ordinary election|516"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13490|2023|Ordinary election|514","CO-ALC-13490|2019|Ordinary election|515","CO-ALC-13490|2015|Ordinary election|516"],"shares":[[0.551594746716698,0.24041811846689895],[0.5555187272124626,0.35134239310573423],[0.7241803278688524,0.27377049180327867]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[55.15947467166979,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,44.84052532833021],[0,9.313887968180312,0,55.55187272124627,0,0,35.13423931057342,0,0,0,0],[0.20491803278688525,0,72.41803278688525,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,27.37704918032787]],"volatility_latest":100.0,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":100.0,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13549","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Pinillos","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.865625508378066,24.448950802327637,17.88131436978911],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13549|2023|Ordinary election|517","CO-ALC-13549|2019|Ordinary election|518","CO-ALC-13549|2015|Ordinary election|519"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13549|2023|Ordinary election|517","CO-ALC-13549|2019|Ordinary election|518","CO-ALC-13549|2015|Ordinary election|519"],"shares":[[0.47958353668456155,0.4009272816007809],[0.5953976371010404,0.35090812907776403],[0.5894065718489455,0.41059342815105443]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":30.78904008647979,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[47.958353668456155,0,0,0,0,0.634455832113226,0,0,0,0,51.40719049943062],[0,0,35.0908129077764,0,0,0.5642743784165051,3.323928760359725,1.4812202433433257,0,0,59.53976371010404],[0,58.940657184894555,41.059342815105445,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":48.028535122152874,"volatility_previous":64.90918709222359,"volatility_mean":56.46886110718823,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13580","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Regidor","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.6222005842259,15.599889165973948,8.90652557319224],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13580|2023|Ordinary election|520","CO-ALC-13580|2019|Ordinary election|521","CO-ALC-13580|2015|Ordinary election|522"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13580|2023|Ordinary election|520","CO-ALC-13580|2019|Ordinary election|521","CO-ALC-13580|2015|Ordinary election|522"],"shares":[[0.5915287244401168,0.40530671859785783],[0.48046550290939316,0.32446661124965365],[0.5443856554967667,0.4553203997648442]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":16.280301711765265,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[40.530671859785784,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,59.469328140214216],[0.22166805209199225,32.44666112496537,0,0,0,2.1335550013854254,0,0,0,0,65.19811582155721],[0,45.53203997648442,0,0.029394473838918283,0,0,0,0,0,0,54.43856554967666]],"volatility_latest":40.30900380769379,"volatility_previous":13.11477332535797,"volatility_mean":26.71188856652588,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13600","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Rioviejo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.8334892422825035,2.380463780012313,4.134241245136188],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13600|2023|Ordinary election|523","CO-ALC-13600|2019|Ordinary election|524","CO-ALC-13600|2015|Ordinary election|525"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13600|2023|Ordinary election|523","CO-ALC-13600|2019|Ordinary election|524","CO-ALC-13600|2015|Ordinary election|525"],"shares":[[0.49822263797942,0.47988774555659497],[0.4754771188179766,0.45167248101785346],[0.5043774319066148,0.4630350194552529]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":88.86171598056592,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[49.822263797942,47.9887745556595,0,0,0,2.188961646398503,0,0,0,0,0],[0,7.285040016416992,47.54771188179766,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,45.16724810178535],[0,50.43774319066148,46.30350194552529,0,2.6021400778210118,0.6566147859922179,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":92.714959983583,"volatility_previous":46.41145803805772,"volatility_mean":69.56320901082036,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13620","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"San Cristobal","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.982462114762477,3.4476566708565315,32.33570531603181],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13620|2023|Ordinary election|526","CO-ALC-13620|2019|Ordinary election|527","CO-ALC-13620|2015|Ordinary election|528"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13620|2023|Ordinary election|526","CO-ALC-13620|2019|Ordinary election|527","CO-ALC-13620|2015|Ordinary election|528"],"shares":[[0.5280095351609059,0.4181849140132811],[0.39199138085832286,0.35751481414975755],[0.5969024696525743,0.27354541649225617]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":45.71327599141186,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[41.81849140132811,0,0,2.4178443725523584,0,0,0,0,0,0,55.76366422611953],[35.75148141497576,0,25.049380499191955,39.19913808583229,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[0,0,59.69024696525743,12.955211385516952,0,0,0,0,0,0,27.354541649225617]],"volatility_latest":61.830674212471884,"volatility_previous":61.99540811529109,"volatility_mean":61.91304116388149,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13647","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"San Estanislao","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.219797945496225,6.603523059219263,17.737159195343608],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13647|2023|Ordinary election|529","CO-ALC-13647|2019|Ordinary election|530","CO-ALC-13647|2015|Ordinary election|531"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13647|2023|Ordinary election|529","CO-ALC-13647|2019|Ordinary election|530","CO-ALC-13647|2015|Ordinary election|531"],"shares":[[0.5215213515578572,0.42932337210289495],[0.5147384261308312,0.4487031955386386],[0.588685795976718,0.41131420402328195]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":53.56674197701062,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,52.15213515578572,0,0,0,0,0,2.988369131505221,0,0,44.859495712709055],[0,51.47384261308312,0,44.87031955386386,0,0,0,2.363459325484642,0,0,1.292378507568381],[0,41.131420402328196,58.868579597671804,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":44.87031955386386,"volatility_previous":58.868579597671804,"volatility_mean":51.86944957576783,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13650","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"San Fernando","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.1103302881236772,5.982519590114521,6.6653970672252925],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13650|2023|Ordinary election|532","CO-ALC-13650|2019|Ordinary election|533","CO-ALC-13650|2015|Ordinary election|534"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13650|2023|Ordinary election|532","CO-ALC-13650|2019|Ordinary election|533","CO-ALC-13650|2015|Ordinary election|534"],"shares":[[0.48489107519325364,0.4737877723120169],[0.5295358649789029,0.4697106690777577],[0.5315178061321653,0.4648638354599124]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":84.36253121684454,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[48.489107519325366,0,47.37877723120169,0,0,0,0.028109627547434995,0,0,0,4.10400562192551],[52.95358649789029,46.97106690777577,0,0,0.06027727546714889,0,0,0,0,0,0.015069318866787222],[0.1333079413445058,0.17139592458579317,46.48638354599124,0,0,0,0.05713197486193106,0,0,0,53.15178061321653]],"volatility_latest":51.49582316180785,"volatility_previous":99.68022681520291,"volatility_mean":75.58802498850538,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13654","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"San Jacinto","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.002986746313237,10.689921482816324,7.659661852282838],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13654|2023|Ordinary election|535","CO-ALC-13654|2019|Ordinary election|536","CO-ALC-13654|2015|Ordinary election|537"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13654|2023|Ordinary election|535","CO-ALC-13654|2019|Ordinary election|536","CO-ALC-13654|2015|Ordinary election|537"],"shares":[[0.41092651359591814,0.29089664613278576],[0.5185995623632386,0.4117003475350753],[0.4068040249161476,0.3302074063933192]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":44.12632661069439,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[41.09265135959181,29.089664613278575,0,0,0,0,0.3546761246966586,0.1182253748988862,0,0,29.34478252753407],[0,41.17003475350753,0.2123825460162183,0.1415883640108122,0,0,51.85995623632385,0,0,0,6.616038100141588],[33.02074063933192,40.68040249161476,0.23273324662879047,24.779245670477103,1.0130741323841468,0,0.1779724827161339,0.09583133684714902,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":63.93962116188318,"volatility_previous":58.78765411564208,"volatility_mean":61.363637638762626,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13655","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"San Jacinto Del Cauca","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.6870937790157825,10.34276604224791,7.381002306563218],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13655|2023|Ordinary election|538","CO-ALC-13655|2019|Ordinary election|539","CO-ALC-13655|2015|Ordinary election|540"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13655|2023|Ordinary election|538","CO-ALC-13655|2019|Ordinary election|539","CO-ALC-13655|2015|Ordinary election|540"],"shares":[[0.48337975858867227,0.4765088207985144],[0.5504184934236748,0.4469908330011957],[0.5298804780876494,0.4560704550220172]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":78.73406844629918,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[47.65088207985144,48.337975858867225,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,4.011142061281337],[0,55.04184934236748,0,0.25906735751295334,0,0,0,0,0,0,44.69908330011957],[0,45.60704550220172,52.98804780876494,0,1.4049066890333404,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":47.65088207985144,"volatility_previous":54.39295449779828,"volatility_mean":51.021918288824864,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13657","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"San Juan Nepomuceno","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[80.74599818785865,4.255024893970123,6.730473948203503],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13657|2023|Ordinary election|541","CO-ALC-13657|2019|Ordinary election|542","CO-ALC-13657|2015|Ordinary election|543"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13657|2023|Ordinary election|541","CO-ALC-13657|2019|Ordinary election|542","CO-ALC-13657|2015|Ordinary election|543"],"shares":[[0.8897110641296687,0.08225108225108226],[0.5149363820763415,0.47238613313664024],[0.4707749001944928,0.4034701607124578]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[88.97110641296688,0,0,0,0,0.6141145676029397,0,0,0,0,10.414779019430183],[0,0.4656094412686705,0,47.238613313664025,0,0,51.49363820763415,0,0,0,0.8021390374331551],[0,40.347016071245775,0.47087726481727915,47.07749001944928,4.135530760569147,0,7.90254887910738,0,0,0,0.06653700481113727]],"volatility_latest":99.19786096256685,"volatility_previous":44.487814655363536,"volatility_mean":71.84283780896519,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13667","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"San Martin De Loba","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.003095975232199,3.533349863625091,5.424696645253391],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13667|2023|Ordinary election|544","CO-ALC-13667|2019|Ordinary election|545","CO-ALC-13667|2015|Ordinary election|546"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13667|2023|Ordinary election|544","CO-ALC-13667|2019|Ordinary election|545","CO-ALC-13667|2015|Ordinary election|546"],"shares":[[0.419447311088178,0.28941635133585597],[0.38457723778824693,0.349243739151996],[0.5240542469664525,0.4698072805139186]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":52.97833895623907,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[41.9447311088178,0,26.510721247563353,0,0,0,28.9416351335856,0,0,0,2.602912510033253],[0,5.355814530126457,0,38.45772377882469,0,0,20.939747086536077,0,0.13637490701710886,0,35.11033969749566],[0,0.1998572448251249,52.405424696645255,46.980728051391864,0,0,0,0,0.41399000713775874,0,0]],"volatility_latest":76.45734040343068,"volatility_previous":61.206044069333075,"volatility_mean":68.83169223638188,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13670","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"San Pablo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.55584756898817,2.566517541794205,10.812279271936973],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13670|2023|Ordinary election|547","CO-ALC-13670|2019|Ordinary election|548","CO-ALC-13670|2015|Ordinary election|549"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13670|2023|Ordinary election|547","CO-ALC-13670|2019|Ordinary election|548","CO-ALC-13670|2015|Ordinary election|549"],"shares":[[0.5186888596875456,0.4431303839976639],[0.36504199042461344,0.3393768150066714],[0.36991759485647013,0.26179480213710044]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":68.0765413443757,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,44.31303839976639,0,0,0,0,2.5259161921448388,0,0,0,53.16104540808877],[0,0,0,16.011302095596893,13.444784553802684,0,0,0.10203280747194098,0,0,70.44188054312849],[5.469528207914516,25.08376347007154,36.991759485647016,26.179480213710043,0.6972742914063208,5.496694738748529,0,0.08149959250203749,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":46.83895459191123,"volatility_previous":83.20992402049475,"volatility_mean":65.02443930620299,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13673","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Santa Catalina","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[31.10318168302112,97.54192073170731,2.7796383121232466],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13673|2023|Ordinary election|550","CO-ALC-13673|2019|Ordinary election|551","CO-ALC-13673|2015|Ordinary election|552"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13673|2023|Ordinary election|550","CO-ALC-13673|2019|Ordinary election|551","CO-ALC-13673|2015|Ordinary election|552"],"shares":[[0.6482307463574191,0.3371989295272078],[0.9847560975609756,0.009336890243902439],[0.4325184192900201,0.40472203616878766]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0.9336890243902439,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,99.06631097560975],[0,0,40.472203616878765,43.25184192900201,0,0.06697923643670463,0,0,0.28466175485599465,0,15.924313462826523]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":84.07568653717348,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13683","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Santa Rosa","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.22260591257475,4.618249534450648,13.09537342275776],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13683|2023|Ordinary election|553","CO-ALC-13683|2019|Ordinary election|554","CO-ALC-13683|2015|Ordinary election|555"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13683|2023|Ordinary election|553","CO-ALC-13683|2019|Ordinary election|554","CO-ALC-13683|2015|Ordinary election|555"],"shares":[[0.5257306493725259,0.4335045902467784],[0.49599627560521414,0.4498137802607076],[0.5576901216323747,0.4267363874047971]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":58.8571212492209,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[43.35045902467784,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,56.64954097532216],[0,49.59962756052141,0.3538175046554935,44.981378026070765,1.0986964618249535,3.9664804469273744,0,0,0,0,0],[0,55.76901216323747,42.67363874047971,0,0,0.011367511651699443,1.5459815846311242,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":100.0,"volatility_previous":50.035187423171394,"volatility_mean":75.0175937115857,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13688","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Santa Rosa Del Sur","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[29.225772239162133,22.28285883358538,9.145673603504928],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13688|2023|Ordinary election|556","CO-ALC-13688|2019|Ordinary election|557","CO-ALC-13688|2015|Ordinary election|558"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13688|2023|Ordinary election|556","CO-ALC-13688|2019|Ordinary election|557","CO-ALC-13688|2015|Ordinary election|558"],"shares":[[0.5284369614211851,0.23617923902956384],[0.6064830034847788,0.38365441514892495],[0.3749804412455015,0.2835237052104522]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[52.84369614211852,0,0,0,0,7.795306907066154,0,0,0.8816120906801007,0,38.47938486013523],[0,38.365441514892495,0,0,60.648300348477875,0,0.9862581366296272,0,0,0,0],[7.424503207635738,28.35237052104522,37.49804412455015,0,26.725082146768894,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":100.0,"volatility_previous":44.922547332185886,"volatility_mean":72.46127366609295,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13744","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Simiti","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.933677863910422,5.723620522749279,14.581481011050428],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13744|2023|Ordinary election|559","CO-ALC-13744|2019|Ordinary election|560","CO-ALC-13744|2015|Ordinary election|561"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13744|2023|Ordinary election|559","CO-ALC-13744|2019|Ordinary election|560","CO-ALC-13744|2015|Ordinary election|561"],"shares":[[0.30910852713178294,0.2397717484926787],[0.3960551790900291,0.3388189738625363],[0.5682713069986028,0.42245649688809855]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":63.3227951186196,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[23.41731266149871,13.705857019810509,0,30.910852713178294,0,2.1425495262704564,5.609388458225667,0,0,0,24.214039621016365],[33.88189738625363,0,0,39.605517909002906,0,0.3267182962245886,24.09244917715392,0.5082284607938045,1.234269119070668,0,0.35091965150048404],[42.245649688809856,0,0.9272196113298615,56.827130699860284,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":39.38480821937226,"volatility_previous":26.512584704743468,"volatility_mean":32.94869646205787,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13760","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Soplaviento","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.632340179346251,11.933139534883722,35.01469147894221],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13760|2023|Ordinary election|562","CO-ALC-13760|2019|Ordinary election|563","CO-ALC-13760|2015|Ordinary election|564"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13760|2023|Ordinary election|562","CO-ALC-13760|2019|Ordinary election|563","CO-ALC-13760|2015|Ordinary election|564"],"shares":[[0.49479317327162275,0.46846977147816027],[0.5495639534883722,0.4302325581395349],[0.6155729676787464,0.2654260528893242]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":56.69592442016456,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[46.84697714781603,0,0,0,0,49.47931732716228,0,3.442291003760486,0,0,0.23141452126120915],[54.95639534883721,43.02325581395349,0,0,0,1.8313953488372092,0.18895348837209303,0,0,0,0],[61.55729676787463,0,26.542605288932418,11.900097943192948,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":51.32162750334677,"volatility_previous":45.04360465116279,"volatility_mean":48.18261607725478,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13780","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Talaigua Nuevo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.96385845611384,5.941114616193481,14.495920745920742],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13780|2023|Ordinary election|565","CO-ALC-13780|2019|Ordinary election|566","CO-ALC-13780|2015|Ordinary election|567"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13780|2023|Ordinary election|565","CO-ALC-13780|2019|Ordinary election|566","CO-ALC-13780|2015|Ordinary election|567"],"shares":[[0.5289006422364941,0.4592620576753558],[0.38130914826498424,0.3218980021030495],[0.5709498834498834,0.425990675990676]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":62.94879233440789,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[45.92620576753558,0,0,52.89006422364942,0.13852159677622466,0,0,0,1.0074297947361792,0,0.037778617302606725],[0,32.189800210304945,25.644058885383807,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,42.166140904311256],[57.094988344988344,42.5990675990676,0.30594405594405594,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":99.9622213826974,"volatility_previous":67.50425573375101,"volatility_mean":83.7332385582242,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13810","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Tiquisio (Pto. 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Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13810|2023|Ordinary election|568","CO-ALC-13810|2019|Ordinary election|569","CO-ALC-13810|2015|Ordinary election|570"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13810|2023|Ordinary election|568","CO-ALC-13810|2019|Ordinary election|569","CO-ALC-13810|2015|Ordinary election|570"],"shares":[[0.5094154570419772,0.48774029030992544],[0.5282793017456359,0.4421945137157108],[0.5321232385956532,0.4614282302364462]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":77.04998135793535,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[50.94154570419772,0,0,0,0.11769321302471558,0,0.07846214201647705,0.08826990976853669,0,0,48.774029030992544],[44.219451371571076,0.08977556109725686,2.802992518703242,0,52.82793017456359,0,0,0.059850374064837904,0,0,0],[0,0.2268927633150227,53.21232385956532,0,46.14282302364462,0.03582517315500358,0,0,0.38213518032003824,0,0]],"volatility_latest":55.60300504133937,"volatility_previous":50.964408896554886,"volatility_mean":53.28370696894713,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13836","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Turbaco","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.58315419642651,18.92532499266934,4.067300221146375],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13836|2023|Ordinary election|571","CO-ALC-13836|2019|Ordinary election|572","CO-ALC-13836|2015|Ordinary election|573"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13836|2023|Ordinary election|571","CO-ALC-13836|2019|Ordinary election|572","CO-ALC-13836|2015|Ordinary election|573"],"shares":[[0.39225203984929385,0.21642049788502876],[0.5233115042517837,0.3340582543250904],[0.33775626083318394,0.2970832586217202]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":16.828899811143284,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,39.22520398492939,21.642049788502877,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,39.13274622656773],[13.764539145733554,0,0,33.40582543250904,0,0,0,0,0.2712344834327045,0,52.5584009383247],[0,29.708325862172018,19.61030422568884,33.77562608331839,10.77042615504154,0,0,6.1353176737792126,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":60.86725377343227,"volatility_previous":66.59417456749097,"volatility_mean":63.73071417046162,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13838|2023|Ordinary election|574","CO-ALC-13838|2019|Ordinary election|575","CO-ALC-13838|2015|Ordinary election|576"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13838|2023|Ordinary election|574","CO-ALC-13838|2019|Ordinary election|575","CO-ALC-13838|2015|Ordinary election|576"],"shares":[[0.3888365722112833,0.3468881088947864],[0.5002309042209291,0.3359194606077399],[0.535793731041456,0.464206268958544]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":59.18937135892695,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13873","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Villanueva","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.954261954261952,1.763245741675938,6.199903428295514],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13873|2023|Ordinary election|577","CO-ALC-13873|2019|Ordinary election|578","CO-ALC-13873|2015|Ordinary election|579"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13873|2023|Ordinary election|577","CO-ALC-13873|2019|Ordinary election|578","CO-ALC-13873|2015|Ordinary election|579"],"shares":[[0.3532640332640332,0.33372141372141373],[0.46512026020713854,0.44748780279037914],[0.5266055045871559,0.4646064703042008]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":88.39239381055248,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.06652806652806653,0,0,35.32640332640332,0,0,0,0,0,0,64.60706860706861],[44.748780279037916,2.893092527604211,46.512026020713854,0,5.075751091329282,0,0,0,0.641958401095609,0,0.1283916802191218],[0,0.4152583293095123,0,0,0,46.460647030420084,0.27040077257363593,0.19314340898116852,0,0,52.6605504587156]],"volatility_latest":99.80508025325281,"volatility_previous":99.45634999047137,"volatility_mean":99.6307151218621,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-13894","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Zambrano","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.689555683785343,7.504414361389053,17.246937459703418],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-13894|2023|Ordinary election|580","CO-ALC-13894|2019|Ordinary election|581","CO-ALC-13894|2015|Ordinary election|582"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-13894|2023|Ordinary election|580","CO-ALC-13894|2019|Ordinary election|581","CO-ALC-13894|2015|Ordinary election|582"],"shares":[[0.3827178303519908,0.27582227351413735],[0.4935256032960565,0.418481459682166],[0.5862346872985171,0.4137653127014829]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":48.05124267670868,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[9.073860357761108,0,38.27178303519908,0,9.578765147143681,0.07212925562608194,0,0,6.650317368724755,0,36.3531448355453],[8.799293702177751,41.8481459682166,0,49.35256032960565,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[0,41.37653127014829,0,58.62346872985171,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":91.20070629782225,"volatility_previous":9.270908400246057,"volatility_mean":50.235807349034154,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15001","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Tunja","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2026,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,10.540970074782244,11.154201767002263],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2026-07-26 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15001|CO-ALC-15001-2026-07-26-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6774","CO-ALC-15001|2023|Ordinary election|583","CO-ALC-15001|2019|Ordinary election|584"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15001|CO-ALC-15001-2026-07-26-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6774","CO-ALC-15001|2023|Ordinary election|583","CO-ALC-15001|2019|Ordinary election|584","CO-ALC-15001|2015|Ordinary election|585"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.33680345944880435,0.23139375870098192],[0.3816519416478324,0.27010992397780975]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,11.047321021572275,0,0,0,0,0,0,88.95267897842774],[0,0,2.1638072734744194,0,4.617834394904459,27.010992397780974,0,0,0,0,66.20736593384015]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":33.792634066159856,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15022","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Almeida","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.127035830618894,8.167613636363633,21.470588235294116],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15022|2023|Ordinary election|586","CO-ALC-15022|2019|Ordinary election|587","CO-ALC-15022|2015|Ordinary election|588"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15022|2023|Ordinary election|586","CO-ALC-15022|2019|Ordinary election|587","CO-ALC-15022|2015|Ordinary election|588"],"shares":[[0.35504885993485347,0.3237785016286645],[0.4083806818181818,0.32670454545454547],[0.6073529411764705,0.3926470588235294]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":67.6321779359508,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[35.504885993485345,2.214983713355049,0,20.19543973941368,0,32.37785016286645,0,0,0,0,9.70684039087948],[0.7102272727272727,0,40.83806818181818,21.235795454545453,32.67045454545455,0,3.053977272727273,1.4914772727272727,0,0,0],[0,0,0,39.26470588235294,0,0,0,0,0,0,60.73529411764706]],"volatility_latest":79.09433298785905,"volatility_previous":78.76420454545455,"volatility_mean":78.9292687666568,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15047","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Aquitania (Puebloviejo)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.802152317880797,4.898446833930706,12.15233698788228],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15047|2023|Ordinary election|589","CO-ALC-15047|2019|Ordinary election|590","CO-ALC-15047|2015|Ordinary election|591"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15047|2023|Ordinary election|589","CO-ALC-15047|2019|Ordinary election|590","CO-ALC-15047|2015|Ordinary election|591"],"shares":[[0.5325951986754967,0.45457367549668876],[0.34701857282502446,0.2980341044857174],[0.5066358915175995,0.38511252163877674]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":63.16970430152041,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[53.25951986754967,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,46.74048013245033],[0,0,0,0,6.125773867709351,0,0,2.2048441403280115,0,0,91.66938199196264],[50.66358915175995,0,0,0,38.51125216387767,0,7.247547605308713,0,0,3.577611079053664,0]],"volatility_latest":53.25951986754967,"volatility_previous":93.87422613229064,"volatility_mean":73.56687299992015,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15051","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Arcabuco","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.592145015105743,22.899549430161674,8.023774145616642],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15051|2023|Ordinary election|592","CO-ALC-15051|2019|Ordinary election|593","CO-ALC-15051|2015|Ordinary election|594"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15051|2023|Ordinary election|592","CO-ALC-15051|2019|Ordinary election|593","CO-ALC-15051|2015|Ordinary election|594"],"shares":[[0.398539778449144,0.3026183282980866],[0.5300821627352239,0.3010866684336072],[0.4169390787518574,0.33670133729569096]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":32.862353736631945,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,6.0694407633183145,0,0,93.93055923668169],[0,0,0,24.635958395245172,0,0,0,0,0,0,75.36404160475483]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":24.635958395245172,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15087","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Belen","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.246171967020025,26.617975248529113,4.462602137020745],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15087|2023|Ordinary election|595","CO-ALC-15087|2019|Ordinary election|596","CO-ALC-15087|2015|Ordinary election|597"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15087|2023|Ordinary election|595","CO-ALC-15087|2019|Ordinary election|596","CO-ALC-15087|2015|Ordinary election|597"],"shares":[[0.441696113074205,0.3492343934040047],[0.47392980320551836,0.20775005072022723],[0.3293526084223759,0.28472658705216847]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":30.103220157635878,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[18.374558303886925,44.169611307420496,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,37.45583038869258],[5.498072631365389,20.775005072022722,0,0,18.786772164739297,0,47.392980320551835,7.547169811320755,0,0,0],[32.93526084223759,13.576367064739157,25.01571338780641,0,0,28.472658705216844,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":73.72692229661189,"volatility_previous":80.92556030389545,"volatility_mean":77.32624130025367,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15090","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Berbeo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.16194331983806,12.708150744960562,1.805054151624546],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15090|2023|Ordinary election|598","CO-ALC-15090|2019|Ordinary election|599","CO-ALC-15090|2015|Ordinary election|600"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15090|2023|Ordinary election|598","CO-ALC-15090|2019|Ordinary election|599","CO-ALC-15090|2015|Ordinary election|600"],"shares":[[0.5902834008097166,0.388663967611336],[0.5635407537248028,0.43645924627519717],[0.4305054151624549,0.4124548736462094]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":19.549416847232703,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,59.02834008097166,0,0,0,0,2.1052631578947367,0,0,0,38.8663967611336],null,[0,43.05054151624549,0,15.703971119133573,0,0,0,0,0,0,41.24548736462094]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15092","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Beteitiva","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.143906919779546,28.51612903225806,4.566512243547322],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15092|2023|Ordinary election|601","CO-ALC-15092|2019|Ordinary election|602","CO-ALC-15092|2015|Ordinary election|603"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15092|2023|Ordinary election|601","CO-ALC-15092|2019|Ordinary election|602","CO-ALC-15092|2015|Ordinary election|603"],"shares":[[0.4200857317819963,0.36864666258420087],[0.5587096774193548,0.2735483870967742],[0.414295168762409,0.3686300463269358]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":39.510829570500604,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,36.86466625842009,0,15.370483772198408,0,42.00857317819963,0,5.7562767911818735,0,0,0],[0,0,0,55.87096774193548,0,0,0,27.35483870967742,0,0,16.774193548387096],[21.70747849106552,36.86300463269358,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,41.4295168762409]],"volatility_latest":78.87323943661971,"volatility_previous":83.2258064516129,"volatility_mean":81.0495229441163,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15097","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Boavita","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[23.489519112207155,24.09564684242796,13.69123252858958],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15097|2023|Ordinary election|604","CO-ALC-15097|2019|Ordinary election|605","CO-ALC-15097|2015|Ordinary election|606"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15097|2023|Ordinary election|604","CO-ALC-15097|2019|Ordinary election|605","CO-ALC-15097|2015|Ordinary election|606"],"shares":[[0.4892108508014797,0.2543156596794081],[0.5861434702636419,0.34518700183936235],[0.5660736975857688,0.42916137229987295]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[25.431565967940813,0,0.8014796547472256,0,2.3119605425400738,0,0,0,0,0,71.45499383477188],[0,0,0,0,5.211526670754139,58.61434702636419,0,0,0,0,36.17412630288167],[56.60736975857687,0,0.4764930114358323,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,42.91613722998729]],"volatility_latest":61.513913154578255,"volatility_previous":63.82587369711833,"volatility_mean":62.669893425848294,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15104","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Boyaca","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.6971490048413145,1.3452914798206308,3.4438775510204067],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15104|2023|Ordinary election|607","CO-ALC-15104|2019|Ordinary election|608","CO-ALC-15104|2015|Ordinary election|609"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15104|2023|Ordinary election|607","CO-ALC-15104|2019|Ordinary election|608","CO-ALC-15104|2015|Ordinary election|609"],"shares":[[0.492200107584723,0.42522861753630986],[0.5067264573991032,0.49327354260089684],[0.517219387755102,0.482780612244898]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":76.1686769902349,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,0,48.2780612244898,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,51.7219387755102]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15106","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Briceño","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.4488778054862905,28.09248554913295,9.007232084155163],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15106|2023|Ordinary election|610","CO-ALC-15106|2019|Ordinary election|611","CO-ALC-15106|2015|Ordinary election|612"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15106|2023|Ordinary election|610","CO-ALC-15106|2019|Ordinary election|611","CO-ALC-15106|2015|Ordinary election|612"],"shares":[[0.5022443890274314,0.49775561097256854],[0.5034682080924856,0.22254335260115607],[0.5450361604207759,0.4549638395792242]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":52.01102221776412,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[7.0520231213872835,0,0,22.254335260115607,20.346820809248555,50.346820809248555,0,0,0,0,0],[54.50361604207758,0,0,45.49638395792242,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":70.69364161849711,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15109","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Buenavista","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.985324947589099,26.18121178432463,23.358320839580216],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15109|2023|Ordinary election|613","CO-ALC-15109|2019|Ordinary election|614","CO-ALC-15109|2015|Ordinary election|615"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15109|2023|Ordinary election|613","CO-ALC-15109|2019|Ordinary election|614","CO-ALC-15109|2015|Ordinary election|615"],"shares":[[0.39360587002096437,0.2337526205450734],[0.6309060589216231,0.36909394107837684],[0.6167916041979011,0.3832083958020989]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":1.093047060955643,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,39.36058700209644,20.5188679245283,0,0,0,0,0,0,40.12054507337526],null,[0,0,0,38.32083958020989,0,0,0,0,0,0,61.67916041979011]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15114","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Busbanza","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.185840707964601,7.474226804123717,15.142428785607194],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15114|2023|Ordinary election|616","CO-ALC-15114|2019|Ordinary election|617","CO-ALC-15114|2015|Ordinary election|618"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15114|2023|Ordinary election|616","CO-ALC-15114|2019|Ordinary election|617","CO-ALC-15114|2015|Ordinary election|618"],"shares":[[0.540929203539823,0.459070796460177],[0.5373711340206185,0.4626288659793814],[0.5757121439280359,0.424287856071964]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":56.65992327711702,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[54.0929203539823,0,0,0,0,45.9070796460177,0,0,0,0,0],[46.26288659793814,0,0,0,0,53.73711340206186,0,0,0,0,0],[57.5712143928036,0,42.4287856071964,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":7.830033756044159,"volatility_previous":53.73711340206186,"volatility_mean":30.78357357905301,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15131","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Caldas","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.173410404624278,18.97940913160251,15.931907463989525],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15131|2023|Ordinary election|619","CO-ALC-15131|2019|Ordinary election|620","CO-ALC-15131|2015|Ordinary election|621"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15131|2023|Ordinary election|619","CO-ALC-15131|2019|Ordinary election|620","CO-ALC-15131|2015|Ordinary election|621"],"shares":[[0.4,0.29826589595375724],[0.43017009847806625,0.2403760071620412],[0.5386294194674814,0.3793103448275862]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":33.044701356728645,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.7707129094412332,0,0,99.22928709055877],[0,0,0,9.221128021486123,0,23.724261414503133,0,0,0,0,67.05461056401074],[0,8.206023570493235,37.93103448275862,53.862941946748144,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":32.945389435989256,"volatility_previous":90.77887197851388,"volatility_mean":61.862130707251566,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15135","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Campohermoso","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.910304324612923,4.413347685683533,15.334128878281625],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15135|2023|Ordinary election|622","CO-ALC-15135|2019|Ordinary election|623","CO-ALC-15135|2015|Ordinary election|624"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15135|2023|Ordinary election|622","CO-ALC-15135|2019|Ordinary election|623","CO-ALC-15135|2015|Ordinary election|624"],"shares":[[0.42498665242925787,0.26588360918312864],[0.5220667384284177,0.47793326157158234],[0.5238663484486874,0.3705250596658711]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":37.982001058495115,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[42.49866524292579,0,26.588360918312866,0,0,0,8.382274426054458,0,0,0,22.530699412706888],[47.79332615715823,0,0,0,52.20667384284177,0,0,0,0,0,0],[0,0,0,52.38663484486874,37.05250596658711,0,10.560859188544153,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":57.50133475707421,"volatility_previous":62.94749403341289,"volatility_mean":60.22441439524355,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15162","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Cerinza","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.408450704225352,4.943993820007723,16.430486403676753],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15162|2023|Ordinary election|625","CO-ALC-15162|2019|Ordinary election|626","CO-ALC-15162|2015|Ordinary election|627"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15162|2023|Ordinary election|625","CO-ALC-15162|2019|Ordinary election|626","CO-ALC-15162|2015|Ordinary election|627"],"shares":[[0.37125315998555436,0.35716865294330086],[0.2854383932020085,0.23599845500193126],[0.5821524320183837,0.41784756798161626]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":80.14341395547399,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[28.54383932020085,0,0,12.823483970645036,22.711471610660485,23.599845500193126,12.321359598300502,0,0,0,0],null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15172","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Chinavita","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.127504553734056,15.080459770114942,15.18810961449141],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15172|2023|Ordinary election|628","CO-ALC-15172|2019|Ordinary election|629","CO-ALC-15172|2015|Ordinary election|630"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15172|2023|Ordinary election|628","CO-ALC-15172|2019|Ordinary election|629","CO-ALC-15172|2015|Ordinary election|630"],"shares":[[0.6006375227686703,0.3993624772313297],[0.4496551724137931,0.2988505747126437],[0.49744542498838834,0.3455643288434742]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":9.402741876379716,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,60.06375227686703,0,0,39.93624772313297,0,0,0,0,0],[0,0,29.885057471264368,0,25.149425287356323,44.96551724137931,0,0,0,0,0],[0,0,34.55643288434742,49.74454249883883,0,0,15.699024616813748,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":30.17869480560266,"volatility_previous":70.11494252873564,"volatility_mean":50.14681866716915,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15176","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Chiquinquira","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[24.287053676068446,16.45067845708187,5.443364411823051],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15176|2023|Ordinary election|631","CO-ALC-15176|2019|Ordinary election|632","CO-ALC-15176|2015|Ordinary election|633"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15176|2023|Ordinary election|631","CO-ALC-15176|2019|Ordinary election|632","CO-ALC-15176|2015|Ordinary election|633"],"shares":[[0.4514805844206579,0.20861004765997343],[0.44781978960207347,0.2833130050312548],[0.2670501884546717,0.21261654433644117]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15180","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Chiscas","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.688909341923612,24.649204864359213,24.009324009324004],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15180|2023|Ordinary election|634","CO-ALC-15180|2019|Ordinary election|635","CO-ALC-15180|2015|Ordinary election|636"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15180|2023|Ordinary election|634","CO-ALC-15180|2019|Ordinary election|635","CO-ALC-15180|2015|Ordinary election|636"],"shares":[[0.5471698113207547,0.4302807179015186],[0.5280636108512629,0.2815715622076707],[0.62004662004662,0.37995337995337997]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":15.954802673028345,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,19.036482694106642,0,0,0,0,0,80.96351730589336],[0,37.995337995338,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,62.004662004662]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":37.995337995338,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15183","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Chita","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.507328072153328,10.50049067713445,6.2867365192946565],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15183|2023|Ordinary election|637","CO-ALC-15183|2019|Ordinary election|638","CO-ALC-15183|2015|Ordinary election|639"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15183|2023|Ordinary election|637","CO-ALC-15183|2019|Ordinary election|638","CO-ALC-15183|2015|Ordinary election|639"],"shares":[[0.5521984216459978,0.4471251409244645],[0.5525024533856723,0.4474975466143277],[0.4106823409148991,0.34781497572195247]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":49.583911508191015,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[55.219842164599775,0,0,44.71251409244645,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06764374295377677],[0,0,0,55.250245338567225,0,0,0,0,0,0,44.749754661432775],[0,0,0,24.15026833631485,41.068234091489906,0,0,0,0,0,34.78149757219525]],"volatility_latest":55.219842164599775,"volatility_previous":41.068234091489906,"volatility_mean":48.14403812804484,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15185","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Chitaraque","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2025,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,0.2696078431372584,36.49599611744722],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2025-07-06 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15185|CO-ALC-15185-2025-07-06-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6786","CO-ALC-15185|2023|Ordinary election|640","CO-ALC-15185|2019|Ordinary election|641"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15185|CO-ALC-15185-2025-07-06-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6786","CO-ALC-15185|2023|Ordinary election|640","CO-ALC-15185|2019|Ordinary election|641","CO-ALC-15185|2015|Ordinary election|642"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.4276960784313726,0.425],[0.6243630186847853,0.259403057510313]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[8.161764705882353,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,91.83823529411765],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2.0383402086872118,0,0,97.96165979131278]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":8.161764705882348,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15187","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Chivata","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[46.01435587457499,4.457451598379109,15.700359158542845],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15187|2023|Ordinary election|643","CO-ALC-15187|2019|Ordinary election|644","CO-ALC-15187|2015|Ordinary election|645"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15187|2023|Ordinary election|643","CO-ALC-15187|2019|Ordinary election|644","CO-ALC-15187|2015|Ordinary election|645"],"shares":[[0.7045712126936153,0.2444276539478655],[0.3340837460603332,0.2895092300765421],[0.4771677783478707,0.3201641867624423]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[24.44276539478655,0,5.1001133358519075,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,70.45712126936154],null,[47.716777834787074,0,0,32.01641867624423,0,0,0,0,0,0,20.2668034889687]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15189","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Cienega","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.384813384813384,2.4342105263157947,23.35792061819459],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15189|2023|Ordinary election|646","CO-ALC-15189|2019|Ordinary election|647","CO-ALC-15189|2015|Ordinary election|648"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15189|2023|Ordinary election|646","CO-ALC-15189|2019|Ordinary election|647","CO-ALC-15189|2015|Ordinary election|648"],"shares":[[0.5669240669240669,0.43307593307593306],[0.512171052631579,0.48782894736842103],[0.5103617843343871,0.27678257815244117]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":44.51528374698886,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[56.69240669240669,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,43.30759330759331],[0,0,0,0,51.2171052631579,0,0,0,0,0,48.7828947368421],[21.285563751317177,0,51.03617843343871,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,27.678257815244116]],"volatility_latest":56.69240669240669,"volatility_previous":72.32174218475589,"volatility_mean":64.5070744385813,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15204","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Combita","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.680892813343142,33.64175220471302,2.5783541763162],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15204|2023|Ordinary election|649","CO-ALC-15204|2019|Ordinary election|650","CO-ALC-15204|2015|Ordinary election|651"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15204|2023|Ordinary election|649","CO-ALC-15204|2019|Ordinary election|650","CO-ALC-15204|2015|Ordinary election|651"],"shares":[[0.4335295560461123,0.3067206279126809],[0.6682087610235651,0.33179123897643487],[0.3390458545622974,0.3132623127991354]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":10.205516164742933,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,11.949976841130153,0,31.32623127991354,8.923884514435695,33.90458545622974,3.628222942720395,0,0,0,10.26709896557048]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15212","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Coper","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.640127388535035,7.4903142488161905,19.147045757441138],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15212|2023|Ordinary election|652","CO-ALC-15212|2019|Ordinary election|653","CO-ALC-15212|2015|Ordinary election|654"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15212|2023|Ordinary election|652","CO-ALC-15212|2019|Ordinary election|653","CO-ALC-15212|2015|Ordinary election|654"],"shares":[[0.4888535031847134,0.322452229299363],[0.41455015066724066,0.3396470081790788],[0.4757885384273656,0.28431808085295424]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":29.27062358245005,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,24.58028411536806,33.964700817907875,0,0,0,0,41.455015066724066],[0,0,28.431808085295426,47.578853842736564,5.108840515326522,0,0,0,0,0,18.880497556641494]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":76.010661928032,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15215","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Corrales","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.066184074457084,null,14.751286449399661],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15215|2023|Ordinary election|655","CO-ALC-15215|2019|Ordinary election|656","CO-ALC-15215|2015|Ordinary election|657"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15215|2023|Ordinary election|655","CO-ALC-15215|2019|Ordinary election|656","CO-ALC-15215|2015|Ordinary election|657"],"shares":[[0.4027921406411582,0.32213029989658737],[null,null],[0.39336763865065755,0.24585477415666093]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[40.27921406411582,0,27.50775594622544,0,0,32.213029989658736,0,0,0,0,0],[100.0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[24.585477415666094,0,39.336763865065755,0,0,12.178387650085764,0,0,0,0,23.89937106918239]],"volatility_latest":59.72078593588418,"volatility_previous":75.41452258433391,"volatility_mean":67.56765426010904,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15218","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Covarachia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.2817109144542798,29.032258064516128,15.106580166821132],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15218|2023|Ordinary election|658","CO-ALC-15218|2019|Ordinary election|659","CO-ALC-15218|2015|Ordinary election|660"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15218|2023|Ordinary election|658","CO-ALC-15218|2019|Ordinary election|659","CO-ALC-15218|2015|Ordinary election|660"],"shares":[[0.5110619469026549,0.4782448377581121],[0.6411842686699072,0.3508616880247459],[0.5500463392029658,0.3989805375347544]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":39.0531900764524,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,51.10619469026549,0,0,47.82448377581121,0,0,0,0,1.0693215339233038],[64.11842686699072,0,0,0.7070260715863897,0.08837825894829872,35.08616880247459,0,0,0,0,0],[39.89805375347544,0,55.00463392029657,0.4633920296570899,0,0,0,0,0,0,4.633920296570899]],"volatility_latest":64.91383119752541,"volatility_previous":59.63855421686747,"volatility_mean":62.276192707196444,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15223","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Cubara","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.771689497716892,11.01237702316725,13.495180292752586],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15223|2023|Ordinary election|661","CO-ALC-15223|2019|Ordinary election|662","CO-ALC-15223|2015|Ordinary election|663"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15223|2023|Ordinary election|661","CO-ALC-15223|2019|Ordinary election|662","CO-ALC-15223|2015|Ordinary election|663"],"shares":[[0.5488584474885845,0.4511415525114155],[0.37099333544906377,0.2608695652173913],[0.5319528739735808,0.397001071046055]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":47.41877582572216,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[54.885844748858446,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,45.114155251141554],[18.343383052999048,0,26.08695652173913,0,8.092668993970168,0,0,0,10.377657886385274,0,37.09933354490638],[7.104605498036416,39.7001071046055,0,0,0,0,53.195287397358086,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":44.557283402094576,"volatility_previous":92.89539450196358,"volatility_mean":68.72633895202908,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15224","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Cucaita","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.246521584017124,13.57168916453849,9.97715156130998],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15224|2023|Ordinary election|664","CO-ALC-15224|2019|Ordinary election|665","CO-ALC-15224|2015|Ordinary election|666"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15224|2023|Ordinary election|664","CO-ALC-15224|2019|Ordinary election|665","CO-ALC-15224|2015|Ordinary election|666"],"shares":[[0.4937566892615055,0.4612914734213343],[0.36628967530098505,0.23057278365560016],[0.472962680883473,0.37319116527037316]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":64.9143257204859,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,4.495183731716018,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,95.50481626828397],[36.62896753009851,3.79423568040861,0,0,0,0,14.08245165997811,0,0,0,45.49434512951478],[37.319116527037316,0,0.15232292460015232,47.2962680883473,0,0,15.232292460015232,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":50.71141919007661,"volatility_previous":49.28858080992338,"volatility_mean":50.0,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15226","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Cuitiva","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[86.13352898019076,56.95931477516059,29.032258064516128],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15226|2023|Ordinary election|667","CO-ALC-15226|2019|Ordinary election|668","CO-ALC-15226|2015|Ordinary election|669"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15226|2023|Ordinary election|667","CO-ALC-15226|2019|Ordinary election|668","CO-ALC-15226|2015|Ordinary election|669"],"shares":[[0.9082905355832722,0.04695524578136464],[0.7237687366167023,0.15417558886509636],[0.6207885304659498,0.33046594982078853]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,4.475421863536317,0,4.695524578136464,0,0,0,0,90.82905355832722],[0,0,0,4.0685224839400425,15.417558886509635,0,0,8.137044967880085,0,0,72.37687366167023],[0,0,62.07885304659498,33.04659498207885,0,0,0,0,0,0,4.874551971326165]],"volatility_latest":23.554603854389722,"volatility_previous":91.05692554473379,"volatility_mean":57.305764699561756,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15232","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Chiquiza","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.682985942801743,10.530401034928843,4.481792717086833],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15232|2023|Ordinary election|670","CO-ALC-15232|2019|Ordinary election|671","CO-ALC-15232|2015|Ordinary election|672"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15232|2023|Ordinary election|670","CO-ALC-15232|2019|Ordinary election|671","CO-ALC-15232|2015|Ordinary election|672"],"shares":[[0.44595249636451767,0.36912263693650027],[0.5148771021992238,0.40957309184993534],[0.5224089635854342,0.47759103641456585]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":58.91454426065808,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,36.912263693650026,44.59524963645177,0,0,0,0,0,0,18.492486669898206],[0,0,0,0,0,51.48771021992238,0,7.554980595084088,0,0,40.957309184993534],[0,0,0,52.24089635854342,0,47.75910364145658,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":81.50751333010179,"volatility_previous":52.24089635854342,"volatility_mean":66.8742048443226,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15236","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Chivor","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.2211882605583426,16.44268774703557,34.78260869565217],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15236|2023|Ordinary election|673","CO-ALC-15236|2019|Ordinary election|674","CO-ALC-15236|2015|Ordinary election|675"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15236|2023|Ordinary election|673","CO-ALC-15236|2019|Ordinary election|674","CO-ALC-15236|2015|Ordinary election|675"],"shares":[[0.48031496062992124,0.44810307802433785],[0.458498023715415,0.2940711462450593],[0.5924978687127025,0.24467178175618073]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":48.281099249945534,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,7.158196134574087,0,44.81030780243378,0,0,0,0,48.031496062992126],[1.8181818181818181,0,0,8.537549407114625,45.8498023715415,14.387351778656127,29.40711462450593,0,0,0,0],[16.28303495311168,0,0,59.249786871270246,0,24.467178175618074,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":78.45445208676979,"volatility_previous":75.25691699604744,"volatility_mean":76.8556845414086,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15238","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Duitama","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2025,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,0.32951945080091605,9.267900241351573],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2025-05-04 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15238|CO-ALC-15238-2025-05-04-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6792","CO-ALC-15238|2023|Ordinary election|676","CO-ALC-15238|2019|Ordinary election|677"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15238|CO-ALC-15238-2025-05-04-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6792","CO-ALC-15238|2023|Ordinary election|676","CO-ALC-15238|2019|Ordinary election|677","CO-ALC-15238|2015|Ordinary election|678"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.23509382151029748,0.23179862700228832],[0.3791543756145526,0.2864753732010369]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,16.591304347826085,0,0,0,0,83.40869565217392],[6.736390453204613,28.64753732010369,0,37.91543756145526,0,0,0,0,0,0,26.700634665236436]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":73.29936533476356,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15244","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"El Cocuy","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[36.179577464788736,2.5311025311025332,13.726315789473684],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15244|2023|Ordinary election|679","CO-ALC-15244|2019|Ordinary election|680","CO-ALC-15244|2015|Ordinary election|681"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15244|2023|Ordinary election|679","CO-ALC-15244|2019|Ordinary election|680","CO-ALC-15244|2015|Ordinary election|681"],"shares":[[0.6320422535211268,0.27024647887323944],[0.3916773916773917,0.3663663663663664],[0.42905263157894735,0.29178947368421054]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,3.7411971830985915,0,0,27.024647887323944,0,0,0,0,69.23415492957747],[24.195624195624195,0,0,0,39.16773916773917,0,0,0,0,0,36.63663663663664],[42.90526315789474,29.178947368421053,0,0,27.91578947368421,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":63.36336336336337,"volatility_previous":47.888586330691595,"volatility_mean":55.62597484702748,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15248","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"El Espino","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.906158357771261,8.343057176196027,14.796238244514104],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15248|2023|Ordinary election|682","CO-ALC-15248|2019|Ordinary election|683","CO-ALC-15248|2015|Ordinary election|684"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15248|2023|Ordinary election|682","CO-ALC-15248|2019|Ordinary election|683","CO-ALC-15248|2015|Ordinary election|684"],"shares":[[0.5595307917888563,0.4404692082111437],[0.5023337222870478,0.41890315052508753],[0.46206896551724136,0.3141065830721003]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":44.36882004013513,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[44.04692082111437,0,0,0,55.95307917888563,0,0,0,0,0,0],[50.23337222870478,0,0,0,0,6.242707117852976,0,0,0,1.633605600933489,41.890315052508754],[0,0,0,0,22.38244514106583,0,0,0,0,0,77.61755485893417]],"volatility_latest":55.95307917888563,"volatility_previous":58.109684947491246,"volatility_mean":57.03138206318844,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15272","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Firavitoba","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.68289290681502,4.503144654088054,35.00278241513634],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15272|2023|Ordinary election|685","CO-ALC-15272|2019|Ordinary election|686","CO-ALC-15272|2015|Ordinary election|687"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15272|2023|Ordinary election|685","CO-ALC-15272|2019|Ordinary election|686","CO-ALC-15272|2015|Ordinary election|687"],"shares":[[0.31339823829392677,0.19656930922577653],[0.4050314465408805,0.36],[0.49749582637729545,0.14746800222593212]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":40.695213090854686,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,31.339823829392675,0,0,19.216504404265184,0,0,49.44367176634214],[0,0,20.22641509433962,3.270440251572327,36.0,0,0,0,0,0,40.503144654088054],[12.242626599888704,9.348914858096828,49.749582637729546,13.383416805787423,0,14.746800222593212,0,0,0,0,0.528658875904285]],"volatility_latest":28.15703151651927,"volatility_previous":75.97448577818376,"volatility_mean":52.065758647351515,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15276","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Floresta","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[38.90479599141017,30.445544554455445,23.689816787388153],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15276|2023|Ordinary election|688","CO-ALC-15276|2019|Ordinary election|689","CO-ALC-15276|2015|Ordinary election|690"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15276|2023|Ordinary election|688","CO-ALC-15276|2019|Ordinary election|689","CO-ALC-15276|2015|Ordinary election|690"],"shares":[[0.6624910522548317,0.2734430923407301],[0.650990099009901,0.3465346534653465],[0.556028973157222,0.3191308052833404]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.467430207587688,4.795991410164638,0,0,0,0,0,0.14316392269148176,0,0,93.59341445955619],[0,0,0,0,0,65.0990099009901,0,0,0,0,34.9009900990099],[55.602897315722196,0,0,0,2.641670217298679,0,0,0,0,0,41.75543246697912]],"volatility_latest":65.0990099009901,"volatility_previous":65.0990099009901,"volatility_mean":65.0990099009901,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15293","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Gachantiva","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.753542292829536,20.612691466083152,25.286867828304295],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15293|2023|Ordinary election|691","CO-ALC-15293|2019|Ordinary election|692","CO-ALC-15293|2015|Ordinary election|693"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15293|2023|Ordinary election|691","CO-ALC-15293|2019|Ordinary election|692","CO-ALC-15293|2015|Ordinary election|693"],"shares":[[0.5096607986260198,0.4521253756977244],[0.438074398249453,0.23194748358862147],[0.5048873778155546,0.2520186995325117]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":39.176902008234514,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15296","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Gameza","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.3540290620871893,17.150143449155244,38.219544846050866],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15296|2023|Ordinary election|694","CO-ALC-15296|2019|Ordinary election|695","CO-ALC-15296|2015|Ordinary election|696"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15296|2023|Ordinary election|694","CO-ALC-15296|2019|Ordinary election|695","CO-ALC-15296|2015|Ordinary election|696"],"shares":[[0.2731175693527081,0.25957727873183617],[0.48485814472425887,0.3133567102327064],[0.6910977242302543,0.30890227576974566]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":51.10292521698013,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[25.957727873183618,0.09907529722589167,0,0,9.445178335535006,0,1.0568031704095113,0,0,0,63.44121532364597],[5.992986930188078,0,13.89862926362767,0,0,0,0.2868983104877271,0,0,0,79.82148549569652],[30.890227576974564,0,0,69.10977242302543,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":30.278899435678223,"volatility_previous":94.00701306981192,"volatility_mean":62.14295625274507,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15299","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Garagoa","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[22.115739034279397,13.085120733845947,24.66175485599464],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15299|2023|Ordinary election|697","CO-ALC-15299|2019|Ordinary election|698","CO-ALC-15299|2015|Ordinary election|699"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15299|2023|Ordinary election|697","CO-ALC-15299|2019|Ordinary election|698","CO-ALC-15299|2015|Ordinary election|699"],"shares":[[0.49330384568128766,0.2721464553384937],[0.440577364090112,0.3097261567516525],[0.4999330207635633,0.2533154722036169]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":1.6942243683955693,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[30.97261567516525,0,10.495076217455821,0,0,14.474571698367733,0,0,0,0,44.0577364090112],[3.2016075016744807,5.93436034829203,49.99330207635633,11.587407903549899,1.754855994641661,2.1969189551239117,0,0,0,0,25.33154722036169]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":58.774850105384104,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15317","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Guacamayas","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[28.389154704944175,26.266891891891888,46.05377276669557],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15317|2023|Ordinary election|700","CO-ALC-15317|2019|Ordinary election|701","CO-ALC-15317|2015|Ordinary election|702"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15317|2023|Ordinary election|700","CO-ALC-15317|2019|Ordinary election|701","CO-ALC-15317|2015|Ordinary election|702"],"shares":[[0.6220095693779905,0.33811802232854865],[0.6190878378378378,0.35641891891891897],[0.7302688638334779,0.2697311361665221]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[3.0303030303030303,0,0.9569377990430622,33.811802232854866,0,0,0,0,0,0,62.20095693779904],[61.90878378378378,0,0,0,0,2.449324324324324,0,0,0,0,35.641891891891895],[0,0,0,26.97311361665221,73.02688638334779,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":61.327805077805074,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":80.66390253890253,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15322|2023|Ordinary election|703","CO-ALC-15322|2019|Ordinary election|704","CO-ALC-15322|2015|Ordinary election|705"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15322|2023|Ordinary election|703","CO-ALC-15322|2019|Ordinary election|704","CO-ALC-15322|2015|Ordinary election|705"],"shares":[[0.45160738714090287,0.2653898768809849],[0.6179305328241499,0.19094380796508456],[0.31677925871827645,0.24940660945773235]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,3.556771545827633,0,0,96.44322845417236],[0,0,17.985088197854154,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,82.01491180214585],[0,13.657111557421945,13.364980828920942,24.940660945773235,2.391820339601972,31.677925871827643,0,0,12.397297790761366,0.3286470695636297,1.241555596129268]],"volatility_latest":17.985088197854147,"volatility_previous":85.39346357494979,"volatility_mean":51.68927588640197,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15325","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Guayata","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.158544509421702,4.221912072575023,17.386569872958262],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15325|2023|Ordinary election|706","CO-ALC-15325|2019|Ordinary election|707","CO-ALC-15325|2015|Ordinary election|708"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15325|2023|Ordinary election|706","CO-ALC-15325|2019|Ordinary election|707","CO-ALC-15325|2015|Ordinary election|708"],"shares":[[0.5207927225471085,0.4792072774528915],[0.4047452896022331,0.36252616887648287],[0.5869328493647913,0.4130671506352087]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":72.49821342639324,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[40.47452896022331,0,0,0,23.272854152128403,0,0,0,0,0,36.25261688764829],[41.30671506352087,0,58.69328493647913,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":59.52547103977669,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15332","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Guican","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.8595988538681922,7.7727952167414,1.6434262948207206],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15332|2023|Ordinary election|709","CO-ALC-15332|2019|Ordinary election|710","CO-ALC-15332|2015|Ordinary election|711"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15332|2023|Ordinary election|709","CO-ALC-15332|2019|Ordinary election|710","CO-ALC-15332|2015|Ordinary election|711"],"shares":[[0.43553008595988535,0.4269340974212035],[0.4937717987045341,0.4160438465371201],[0.49352589641434264,0.4770916334661354]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":84.94029746587297,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[10.410697230181471,0,0,42.693409742120345,0,0,0,2.76981852913085,0,0,44.126074498567334],[41.60438465371201,0,0,0,0,0,1.096163428001993,7.673143996013951,0,0,49.62630792227205],[2.9382470119521913,0,0,49.352589641434264,47.70916334661354,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":42.693409742120345,"volatility_previous":97.06175298804781,"volatility_mean":69.87758136508408,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15362","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Iza","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.03305785123967,15.78320428826683,44.02476780185759],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15362|2023|Ordinary election|712","CO-ALC-15362|2019|Ordinary election|713","CO-ALC-15362|2015|Ordinary election|714"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15362|2023|Ordinary election|712","CO-ALC-15362|2019|Ordinary election|713","CO-ALC-15362|2015|Ordinary election|714"],"shares":[[0.5085399449035812,0.34820936639118455],[0.5789160214413341,0.42108397855866586],[0.720123839009288,0.27987616099071205]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":6.2136361129519475,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,0,0,27.987616099071207,72.0123839009288,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15367","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Jenesano","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[30.533533319048637,15.803939532753091,46.01159260281534],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15367|2023|Ordinary election|715","CO-ALC-15367|2019|Ordinary election|716","CO-ALC-15367|2015|Ordinary election|717"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15367|2023|Ordinary election|715","CO-ALC-15367|2019|Ordinary election|716","CO-ALC-15367|2015|Ordinary election|717"],"shares":[[0.6372401971287764,0.3319048639382901],[0.5790196976637655,0.42098030233623457],[0.7300579630140767,0.2699420369859233]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,0,0,0,26.994203698592326,0,0,0,0,0,73.00579630140767]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15368","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Jerico","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[50.560928433268856,3.07692307692308,22.67273479520066],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15368|2023|Ordinary election|718","CO-ALC-15368|2019|Ordinary election|719","CO-ALC-15368|2015|Ordinary election|720"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15368|2023|Ordinary election|718","CO-ALC-15368|2019|Ordinary election|719","CO-ALC-15368|2015|Ordinary election|720"],"shares":[[0.7404255319148936,0.234816247582205],[0.5153846153846154,0.4846153846153846],[0.48613984278030614,0.25941249482829953]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[74.04255319148936,2.4758220502901356,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,23.4816247582205],[48.46153846153846,0,51.53846153846154,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[25.941249482829953,0,48.613984278030614,0,25.44476623913943,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":51.53846153846154,"volatility_previous":25.444766239139433,"volatility_mean":38.49161388880049,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15377","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Labranzagrande","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.523156089193819,5.800464037122971,55.51419264774313],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15377|2023|Ordinary election|721","CO-ALC-15377|2019|Ordinary election|722","CO-ALC-15377|2015|Ordinary election|723"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15377|2023|Ordinary election|721","CO-ALC-15377|2019|Ordinary election|722","CO-ALC-15377|2015|Ordinary election|723"],"shares":[[0.5276157804459691,0.4723842195540309],[0.39327146171693733,0.3352668213457076],[0.7775709632387157,0.2224290367612843]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":46.972739352862526,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,22.24290367612843,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,77.75709632387156]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15380","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"La Capilla","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[null,24.273858921161825,17.15210355987055],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15380|2023|Ordinary election|724","CO-ALC-15380|2019|Ordinary election|725","CO-ALC-15380|2015|Ordinary election|726"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15380|2023|Ordinary election|724","CO-ALC-15380|2019|Ordinary election|725","CO-ALC-15380|2015|Ordinary election|726"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.5477178423236514,0.30497925311203317],[0.4746494066882416,0.3031283710895361]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[100.0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[14.730290456431534,0,30.497925311203318,0,0,54.77178423236514,0,0,0,0,0],[30.312837108953612,0,47.46494066882416,1.4563106796116505,20.76591154261057,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":85.26970954356847,"volatility_previous":54.77178423236514,"volatility_mean":70.02074688796681,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15401","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"La Victoria","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2025,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,1.0339734121122603,1.506024096385545],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2025-05-04 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15401|CO-ALC-15401-2025-05-04-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6794","CO-ALC-15401|2023|Ordinary election|727","CO-ALC-15401|2019|Ordinary election|728"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15401|CO-ALC-15401-2025-05-04-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6794","CO-ALC-15401|2023|Ordinary election|727","CO-ALC-15401|2019|Ordinary election|728","CO-ALC-15401|2015|Ordinary election|729"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.5051698670605613,0.49483013293943867],[0.5075301204819277,0.49246987951807225]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,0,0,0,49.24698795180723,0,0,0,0,0,50.75301204819277]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15403","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"La Uvita","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.280000000000001,1.5267175572519065,22.274325908558026],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15403|2023|Ordinary election|730","CO-ALC-15403|2019|Ordinary election|731","CO-ALC-15403|2015|Ordinary election|732"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15403|2023|Ordinary election|730","CO-ALC-15403|2019|Ordinary election|731","CO-ALC-15403|2015|Ordinary election|732"],"shares":[[0.37333333333333335,0.32053333333333334],[0.29716466739367503,0.2818974918211559],[0.4900351699882766,0.2672919109026964]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":70.73276070984312,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[37.333333333333336,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,62.666666666666664],[0,0,20.610687022900763,0,28.189749182115595,29.7164667393675,0,0,0,0,21.48309705561614],[24.267291910902696,0,26.729191090269637,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,49.00351699882766]],"volatility_latest":78.51690294438386,"volatility_previous":57.906215921483096,"volatility_mean":68.21155943293348,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15407","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Villa De Leiva","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.966735966735968,3.4878537998662793,12.526288117770765],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15407|2023|Ordinary election|733","CO-ALC-15407|2019|Ordinary election|734","CO-ALC-15407|2015|Ordinary election|735"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15407|2023|Ordinary election|733","CO-ALC-15407|2019|Ordinary election|734","CO-ALC-15407|2015|Ordinary election|735"],"shares":[[0.5200623700623701,0.3103950103950104],[0.3619344773790952,0.32705593938043237],[0.3539695057833859,0.22870662460567825]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":25.604867341107294,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,9.781704781704782,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,90.21829521829522],[0,0,3.9781591263650546,0,0,36.193447737909516,0,1.0028972587474927,0,3.621573434365946,55.20392244261199],[3.614616193480547,12.854889589905362,35.39695057833859,0,13.433228180862251,0,0,0,0,0,34.700315457413254]],"volatility_latest":40.81791843102296,"volatility_previous":61.3215254162217,"volatility_mean":51.069721923622325,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15425","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Macanal","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[26.49945474372955,12.730121425773596,27.287384119306733],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15425|2023|Ordinary election|736","CO-ALC-15425|2019|Ordinary election|737","CO-ALC-15425|2015|Ordinary election|738"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15425|2023|Ordinary election|736","CO-ALC-15425|2019|Ordinary election|737","CO-ALC-15425|2015|Ordinary election|738"],"shares":[[0.5536168665939658,0.2886223191566703],[0.4915785350567959,0.36427732079905994],[0.5598548972188634,0.28698105602579604]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[12.831697564521992,0,55.36168665939658,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,31.806615776081426],[36.427732079905994,0,0,0,49.15785350567959,14.414414414414415,0,0,0,0,0],[55.98548972188634,0,28.698105602579606,0,3.667875856509472,0,11.648528819024587,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":87.16830243547801,"volatility_previous":59.90439206358453,"volatility_mean":73.53634724953127,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15442","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Maripi","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.090909090909093,0.3127255232138566,15.775749674054765],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15442|2023|Ordinary election|739","CO-ALC-15442|2019|Ordinary election|740","CO-ALC-15442|2015|Ordinary election|741"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15442|2023|Ordinary election|739","CO-ALC-15442|2019|Ordinary election|740","CO-ALC-15442|2015|Ordinary election|741"],"shares":[[0.5454545454545454,0.45454545454545453],[0.5015636276160693,0.49843637238393074],[0.5788787483702739,0.4211212516297262]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":64.37030960542455,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,45.45454545454545,0,0,0,0,0,54.54545454545455],null,[0,0,0,57.88787483702738,0,0,0,0,0,0,42.11212516297262]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15455","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Miraflores","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.280983270740869,27.857142857142858,15.094693418338647],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15455|2023|Ordinary election|742","CO-ALC-15455|2019|Ordinary election|743","CO-ALC-15455|2015|Ordinary election|744"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15455|2023|Ordinary election|742","CO-ALC-15455|2019|Ordinary election|743","CO-ALC-15455|2015|Ordinary election|744"],"shares":[[0.4916353704335951,0.3588255377261864],[0.5208928571428572,0.24232142857142858],[0.46690418151134444,0.315957247327958]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":10.82398919289378,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,24.232142857142858,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,75.76785714285714],[0,21.713857116069754,46.690418151134445,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,31.595724732795798]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":46.690418151134445,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15464","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Mongua","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[35.80318379160637,15.757938885560222,11.422208081450847],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15464|2023|Ordinary election|745","CO-ALC-15464|2019|Ordinary election|746","CO-ALC-15464|2015|Ordinary election|747"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15464|2023|Ordinary election|745","CO-ALC-15464|2019|Ordinary election|746","CO-ALC-15464|2015|Ordinary election|747"],"shares":[[0.6356005788712011,0.2775687409551375],[0.5787896944278011,0.4212103055721989],[0.4957047406936049,0.3814826598790964]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,8.683068017366136,63.56005788712012,0,27.756874095513748,0,0,0,0,0,0],[57.87896944278011,0,0,0,42.12103055721989,0,0,0,0,0,0],[38.14826598790964,0,0,0,4.995227489659561,0,0,0,0,7.286032453070315,49.570474069360486]],"volatility_latest":72.24312590448625,"volatility_previous":56.8565065224308,"volatility_mean":64.54981621345853,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15466","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Mongui","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.5102040816326543,44.248082694231414,1.984843016961392],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15466|2023|Ordinary election|748","CO-ALC-15466|2019|Ordinary election|749","CO-ALC-15466|2015|Ordinary election|750"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15466|2023|Ordinary election|748","CO-ALC-15466|2019|Ordinary election|749","CO-ALC-15466|2015|Ordinary election|750"],"shares":[[0.24968112244897958,0.24457908163265304],[0.6222074024674892,0.17972657552517507],[0.509924215084807,0.49007578491519305]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":31.10484220527422,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[24.96811224489796,1.052295918367347,24.457908163265305,21.556122448979593,0,21.428571428571427,0,0,0,0,6.536989795918367],[0,0,2.5008336112037344,0,62.22074024674892,17.305768589529844,0,0,0,0,17.972657552517507],[49.007578491519304,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,50.992421508480696]],"volatility_latest":73.65640800334806,"volatility_previous":82.0273424474825,"volatility_mean":77.84187522541528,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15469","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Moniquira","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[41.73171897403218,4.938895912347242,19.17588129666383],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15469|2023|Ordinary election|751","CO-ALC-15469|2019|Ordinary election|752","CO-ALC-15469|2015|Ordinary election|753"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15469|2023|Ordinary election|751","CO-ALC-15469|2019|Ordinary election|752","CO-ALC-15469|2015|Ordinary election|753"],"shares":[[0.632228771706229,0.2149115819659073],[0.36662452591656136,0.3172355667930889],[0.39372460069936677,0.20196578773272847]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.0116297594392225,0,98.98837024056078],[0,0,0,0,13.105773282764433,13.90644753476612,0,36.662452591656134,0,0,36.32532659081332],[20.196578773272847,1.0963046970985728,39.37246006993668,6.842453454304886,6.984216992722805,5.774501464889897,0,0,0,0.04725451280597297,19.68623003496834]],"volatility_latest":63.67467340918669,"volatility_previous":67.55505150741897,"volatility_mean":65.61486245830282,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15476","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Motavita","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.890525885001022,42.92279411764706,1.710056151097497],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15476|2023|Ordinary election|754","CO-ALC-15476|2019|Ordinary election|755","CO-ALC-15476|2015|Ordinary election|756"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15476|2023|Ordinary election|754","CO-ALC-15476|2019|Ordinary election|755","CO-ALC-15476|2015|Ordinary election|756"],"shares":[[0.3177818702680581,0.26887661141804786],[0.5627297794117647,0.1335018382352941],[0.42725880551301687,0.41015824400204187]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":20.08920309297759,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15480|2023|Ordinary election|757","CO-ALC-15480|2019|Ordinary election|758","CO-ALC-15480|2015|Ordinary election|759"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15480|2023|Ordinary election|757","CO-ALC-15480|2019|Ordinary election|758","CO-ALC-15480|2015|Ordinary election|759"],"shares":[[0.3920284431137725,0.2054640718562874],[0.5662650602409639,0.4020829079027976],[0.6162605329082214,0.38373946709177864]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":7.77731248120741,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,20.54640718562874,0,10.011227544910179,0,0,20.190868263473053,1.8899700598802396,0,47.36152694610779],[0,0,0,0,0,0,3.1652031856238514,40.20829079027976,0,0,56.626506024096386],[38.373946709177865,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,61.626053290822135]],"volatility_latest":32.447604790419156,"volatility_previous":43.373493975903614,"volatility_mean":37.91054938316138,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15491","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Nobsa","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.210127062393319,25.232974910394265,3.1155778894472306],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15491|2023|Ordinary election|760","CO-ALC-15491|2019|Ordinary election|761","CO-ALC-15491|2015|Ordinary election|762"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15491|2023|Ordinary election|760","CO-ALC-15491|2019|Ordinary election|761","CO-ALC-15491|2015|Ordinary election|762"],"shares":[[0.3881092357291864,0.3460079651052532],[0.5092677931387609,0.25693804403481824],[0.45806811836962585,0.42691233947515356]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":47.96236750250503,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,5.826932923707117,0.3789042498719918,0,93.7941628264209],[0,0,0,0,4.734785036292574,2.6242322724734786,4.109436069235064,0,0,42.69123394751536,45.84031267448353]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":54.15968732551648,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15494","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Nuevo Colon","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2025,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,0.26378264310208266,1.8161497625034926],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2025-05-04 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15494|CO-ALC-15494-2025-05-04-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6793","CO-ALC-15494|2023|Ordinary election|763","CO-ALC-15494|2019|Ordinary election|764"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15494|CO-ALC-15494-2025-05-04-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6793","CO-ALC-15494|2023|Ordinary election|763","CO-ALC-15494|2019|Ordinary election|764","CO-ALC-15494|2015|Ordinary election|765"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.33975204431548406,0.3371142178844632],[0.3889354568315172,0.37077395920648226]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,0,0,0,0,38.89354568315172,0,0,0,0,61.106454316848286]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15500","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Oicata","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.8310445276737433,11.944444444444446,0.10741138560687347],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15500|2023|Ordinary election|766","CO-ALC-15500|2019|Ordinary election|767","CO-ALC-15500|2015|Ordinary election|768"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15500|2023|Ordinary election|766","CO-ALC-15500|2019|Ordinary election|767","CO-ALC-15500|2015|Ordinary election|768"],"shares":[[0.3279234290470246,0.3096129837702872],[0.42268518518518516,0.3032407407407407],[0.3893662728249194,0.38829215896885066]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":76.53649405750866,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,3.454015813566375,0,0,0,0,0,96.54598418643363],[4.305555555555555,0,14.814814814814815,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,80.87962962962963],[0,4.403866809881848,0,0,16.433941997851772,0,0,0,0,1.3963480128893662,77.76584317937701]],"volatility_latest":19.12037037037037,"volatility_previous":22.23415682062299,"volatility_mean":20.67726359549668,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15507","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Otanche","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.709359605911335,2.205390955669415,7.506172839506171],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15507|2023|Ordinary election|769","CO-ALC-15507|2019|Ordinary election|770","CO-ALC-15507|2015|Ordinary election|771"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15507|2023|Ordinary election|769","CO-ALC-15507|2019|Ordinary election|770","CO-ALC-15507|2015|Ordinary election|771"],"shares":[[0.37142857142857144,0.2843349753694581],[0.37491646246380045,0.3528625529071063],[0.45901234567901233,0.38395061728395063]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":66.81074832900879,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[19.054187192118228,0,0,0,0,0,37.142857142857146,0,0,0,43.80295566502463],[0,0,0,0,0,37.49164624638004,0,0,0,0,62.50835375361996],[38.39506172839506,0,0,0,45.901234567901234,15.703703703703704,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":56.197044334975374,"volatility_previous":84.2962962962963,"volatility_mean":70.24667031563584,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15511","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Pachavita","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.889178617992172,24.008069939475448,21.453050034270053],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15511|2023|Ordinary election|772","CO-ALC-15511|2019|Ordinary election|773","CO-ALC-15511|2015|Ordinary election|774"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15511|2023|Ordinary election|772","CO-ALC-15511|2019|Ordinary election|773","CO-ALC-15511|2015|Ordinary election|774"],"shares":[[0.4706649282920469,0.4217731421121252],[0.6025554808338938,0.36247478143913925],[0.5263879369431117,0.3118574366004112]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":38.59383421967528,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[5.6714471968709255,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,94.32855280312907],[36.24747814391392,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,63.75252185608608],[16.175462645647706,0,0,0,52.638793694311175,31.185743660041123,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":30.576030947042995,"volatility_previous":83.8245373543523,"volatility_mean":57.20028415069765,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15514","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Paez","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[38.71646501841136,7.365299060800794,0.33594624860022293],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15514|2023|Ordinary election|775","CO-ALC-15514|2019|Ordinary election|776","CO-ALC-15514|2015|Ordinary election|777"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15514|2023|Ordinary election|775","CO-ALC-15514|2019|Ordinary election|776","CO-ALC-15514|2015|Ordinary election|777"],"shares":[[0.6733298264071541,0.2861651762230405],[0.536826495304004,0.46317350469599605],[0.2961926091825308,0.29283314669652855]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,4.0504997369805364,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,95.94950026301947],[0,0,0,0,46.3173504695996,0,0,0,0,0,53.6826495304004],[0,23.460246360582307,29.61926091825308,13.49384098544233,29.283314669652857,4.143337066069429,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":46.31735046959961,"volatility_previous":70.71668533034715,"volatility_mean":58.51701789997338,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15516","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Paipa","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[33.90919841637102,6.448707079270882,23.957501688877972],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15516|2023|Ordinary election|778","CO-ALC-15516|2019|Ordinary election|779","CO-ALC-15516|2015|Ordinary election|780"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15516|2023|Ordinary election|778","CO-ALC-15516|2019|Ordinary election|779","CO-ALC-15516|2015|Ordinary election|780"],"shares":[[0.5790014910792328,0.23990950691552265],[0.49369436201780414,0.4292072912250953],[0.4825277897193392,0.2429527728305595]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[8.658542855673813,0,0,0,2.529693043344131,0,0,0,0,0,88.81176410098205],[0,0,0,0,0,0,5.717465027554049,1.7221280203476048,0,0,92.56040695209833],[24.29527728305595,0,0,0,0.896640668181539,0,0,0,1.3633851255911074,4.12086224897132,69.32383467420009]],"volatility_latest":11.188235899017942,"volatility_previous":30.676165325799907,"volatility_mean":20.932200612408923,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15518","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Pajarito","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.64163372859025,14.39716312056737,31.886227544910184],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15518|2023|Ordinary election|781","CO-ALC-15518|2019|Ordinary election|782","CO-ALC-15518|2015|Ordinary election|783"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15518|2023|Ordinary election|781","CO-ALC-15518|2019|Ordinary election|782","CO-ALC-15518|2015|Ordinary election|783"],"shares":[[0.5006587615283267,0.4242424242424242],[0.49148936170212765,0.34751773049645396],[0.6571856287425151,0.3383233532934132]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":39.53624036092312,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,50.06587615283267,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,49.93412384716732],[0,34.751773049645394,49.148936170212764,5.815602836879433,10.28368794326241,0,0,0,0,0,0],[0,33.83233532934132,65.7185628742515,0.1497005988023952,0,0,0,0,0,0.2994011976047904,0]],"volatility_latest":65.2482269503546,"volatility_previous":16.869027901643527,"volatility_mean":41.05862742599906,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15522","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Panqueba","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.0782029950083185,30.158730158730158,11.675126903553306],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15522|2023|Ordinary election|784","CO-ALC-15522|2019|Ordinary election|785","CO-ALC-15522|2015|Ordinary election|786"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15522|2023|Ordinary election|784","CO-ALC-15522|2019|Ordinary election|785","CO-ALC-15522|2015|Ordinary election|786"],"shares":[[0.47836938435940096,0.4475873544093178],[0.6507936507936507,0.3492063492063492],[0.5583756345177665,0.4416243654822335]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":39.68973232510316,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[44.75873544093178,0,0,0,0,7.404326123128119,0,0,0,0,47.8369384359401],[0,0,0,0,0,34.92063492063492,0,0,0,0,65.07936507936508],[0,0,44.16243654822335,0,55.83756345177665,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":44.75873544093178,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":72.3793677204659,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15531","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Pauna","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.583703106091164,18.66460996033495,0.4857737682165144],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15531|2023|Ordinary election|787","CO-ALC-15531|2019|Ordinary election|788","CO-ALC-15531|2015|Ordinary election|789"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15531|2023|Ordinary election|787","CO-ALC-15531|2019|Ordinary election|788","CO-ALC-15531|2015|Ordinary election|789"],"shares":[[0.38120209762000806,0.3053650665590964],[0.5685323931247246,0.38188629352137504],[0.3178348369188064,0.31297709923664124]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":49.00908885711582,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,30.53650665590964,8.208955223880597,38.120209762000805,1.9160951996772893,0,0,0,0,21.218233158531667],[4.95813133539004,0,0,0,56.85323931247245,0,0,0,0,0,38.188629352137504],[31.783483691880637,0,4.904001850566736,31.297709923664122,30.39555863983345,0,0.11566042100393245,0,0,0,1.503585473051122]],"volatility_latest":40.66155707946753,"volatility_previous":63.14272455172539,"volatility_mean":51.902140815596454,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15533","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Paya","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[19.847328244274806,27.528517110266158,4.188481675392666],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15533|2023|Ordinary election|790","CO-ALC-15533|2019|Ordinary election|791","CO-ALC-15533|2015|Ordinary election|792"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15533|2023|Ordinary election|790","CO-ALC-15533|2019|Ordinary election|791","CO-ALC-15533|2015|Ordinary election|792"],"shares":[[0.599236641221374,0.40076335877862596],[0.6281368821292775,0.352851711026616],[0.5209424083769634,0.4790575916230367]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[40.0763358778626,0,0,0,0,59.9236641221374,0,0,0,0,0],[1.9011406844106464,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,98.09885931558935],[52.09424083769633,0,0,47.90575916230367,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":98.09885931558935,"volatility_previous":98.09885931558935,"volatility_mean":98.09885931558935,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15537","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Paz De Rio","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.404712404712406,0.7560137457044647,18.149234278266533],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15537|2023|Ordinary election|793","CO-ALC-15537|2019|Ordinary election|794","CO-ALC-15537|2015|Ordinary election|795"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15537|2023|Ordinary election|793","CO-ALC-15537|2019|Ordinary election|794","CO-ALC-15537|2015|Ordinary election|795"],"shares":[[0.4702009702009702,0.34615384615384615],[0.5037800687285223,0.4962199312714777],[0.5907461713913327,0.4092538286086673]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":52.577225028172826,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,11.573111573111573,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,88.42688842688841],[0,0,0,49.62199312714777,0,0,0,0,0,0,50.37800687285223],[0,59.07461713913327,0,40.92538286086673,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":49.62199312714776,"volatility_previous":59.07461713913327,"volatility_mean":54.348305133140514,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15542","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Pesca","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[29.231095106968862,6.025951176599953,1.930147058823536],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15542|2023|Ordinary election|796","CO-ALC-15542|2019|Ordinary election|797","CO-ALC-15542|2015|Ordinary election|798"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15542|2023|Ordinary election|796","CO-ALC-15542|2019|Ordinary election|797","CO-ALC-15542|2015|Ordinary election|798"],"shares":[[0.5782673162465579,0.2859563651768693],[0.2997580822520343,0.23949857048603476],[0.5096507352941176,0.4903492647058823]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":2.3027143847817344,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,6.8205888582927345,0,0,0,6.757042999364542,0,0,0,0,86.42236814234272],[0,0,0,23.751924345722454,0,0,0,6.575764240158346,0,0,69.6723114141192],[49.03492647058823,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,50.96507352941177]],"volatility_latest":30.327688585880793,"volatility_previous":49.03492647058823,"volatility_mean":39.68130752823451,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15550","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Pisba","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[50.769230769230774,9.92529348986126,33.20754716981132],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15550|2023|Ordinary election|799","CO-ALC-15550|2019|Ordinary election|800","CO-ALC-15550|2015|Ordinary election|801"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15550|2023|Ordinary election|799","CO-ALC-15550|2019|Ordinary election|800","CO-ALC-15550|2015|Ordinary election|801"],"shares":[[0.7144230769230769,0.20673076923076925],[0.5346851654215582,0.43543223052294555],[0.5547169811320755,0.22264150943396227]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[71.4423076923077,0,0,5.673076923076923,0,0,0,2.2115384615384617,0,0,20.673076923076923],[2.454642475987193,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,97.54535752401281],[22.264150943396228,0,9.056603773584905,10.69182389937107,0,0,0,0,2.5157232704402515,0,55.471698113207545]],"volatility_latest":76.87228060093588,"volatility_previous":42.07365941080526,"volatility_mean":59.47297000587057,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15572","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Puerto Boyaca","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.5750766087844745,5.479634987758736,32.91276305258698],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15572|2023|Ordinary election|802","CO-ALC-15572|2019|Ordinary election|803","CO-ALC-15572|2015|Ordinary election|804"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15572|2023|Ordinary election|802","CO-ALC-15572|2019|Ordinary election|803","CO-ALC-15572|2015|Ordinary election|804"],"shares":[[0.29487231869254343,0.25912155260469866],[0.4143334075228132,0.35953705764522587],[0.6120709947742573,0.28294336424838756]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":64.59893616571499,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,7.193411974182061,0,0,0.6677053193857111,0,11.693745826841754,80.44513687959046],[0,0,0,0,3.7992561555482323,28.294336424838754,0,0,0,0.983946141895391,66.92246127771763]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":28.294336424838747,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15580","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Quipama","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.073908174692047,13.794144280108664,17.376830892143815],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15580|2023|Ordinary election|805","CO-ALC-15580|2019|Ordinary election|806","CO-ALC-15580|2015|Ordinary election|807"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15580|2023|Ordinary election|805","CO-ALC-15580|2019|Ordinary election|806","CO-ALC-15580|2015|Ordinary election|807"],"shares":[[0.39109742441209405,0.2603583426651736],[0.4150316933293088,0.27709025052822217],[0.5868841544607191,0.41311584553928093]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":31.39864360968896,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,19.260918253079506,0,0,4.003359462486002,0.5879059350503919,0,76.1478163493841],[0,0,0,0,0,17.989737398128586,12.798068216118322,0,0,41.50316933293088,27.709025052822216],[0,0,0,0,58.68841544607191,41.31158455392809,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":72.29097494717779,"volatility_previous":82.01026260187142,"volatility_mean":77.1506187745246,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15599","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Ramiriqui","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.230404504371016,22.066408768536427,29.409740147995187],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15599|2023|Ordinary election|808","CO-ALC-15599|2019|Ordinary election|809","CO-ALC-15599|2015|Ordinary election|810"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15599|2023|Ordinary election|808","CO-ALC-15599|2019|Ordinary election|809","CO-ALC-15599|2015|Ordinary election|810"],"shares":[[0.40954215439324343,0.35723810934953326],[0.6078336557059961,0.38716956802063185],[0.647048700739976,0.3529512992600241]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":36.50430326008471,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0.35560823825751964,0,0,0,99.64439176174247],[0,60.783365570599614,0,0,0,0,0.4996776273372018,0,0,0,38.71695680206319],[35.29512992600241,64.7048700739976,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":60.92743495967929,"volatility_previous":39.21663442940039,"volatility_mean":50.07203469453984,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15600","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Raquira","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.260972156677678,1.9114951557999476,2.1301429822001765],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15600|2023|Ordinary election|811","CO-ALC-15600|2019|Ordinary election|812","CO-ALC-15600|2015|Ordinary election|813"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15600|2023|Ordinary election|811","CO-ALC-15600|2019|Ordinary election|812","CO-ALC-15600|2015|Ordinary election|813"],"shares":[[0.43935818782444547,0.3067484662576687],[0.5006546216286987,0.48153967007069914],[0.48205427487598485,0.46075284505398306]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":56.28476930516696,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,18.07456347333648,30.67484662576687,0,0,0,0,0,0,51.25058990089665],[0.9950248756218906,0,0,0,50.06546216286986,0,0,0.7855459544383346,0,0,48.153967007069916],[3.472424861394806,0,46.07528450539831,48.205427487598485,2.246863145608404,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":51.846032992930084,"volatility_previous":96.7581119787697,"volatility_mean":74.30207248584989,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15621","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Rondon","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[43.281165677280086,10.13615733736762,18.946765884373214],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15621|2023|Ordinary election|814","CO-ALC-15621|2019|Ordinary election|815","CO-ALC-15621|2015|Ordinary election|816"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15621|2023|Ordinary election|814","CO-ALC-15621|2019|Ordinary election|815","CO-ALC-15621|2015|Ordinary election|816"],"shares":[[0.6988667026443605,0.26605504587155965],[0.5506807866868381,0.4493192133131619],[0.5180309101316543,0.32856325128792213]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,3.507825148407987,0,0,0,69.88667026443605,0,0,0,0,26.605504587155963],null,[32.856325128792214,0,51.80309101316543,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,15.340583858042358]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15632","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Saboya","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.72473336719147,28.838201947445643,4.137426900584792],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15632|2023|Ordinary election|817","CO-ALC-15632|2019|Ordinary election|818","CO-ALC-15632|2015|Ordinary election|819"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15632|2023|Ordinary election|817","CO-ALC-15632|2019|Ordinary election|818","CO-ALC-15632|2015|Ordinary election|819"],"shares":[[0.5733875063484002,0.3961401726764855],[0.5658263305322129,0.2774443110577564],[0.39152046783625727,0.35014619883040937]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":1.4997835269647375,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[11.938108576764039,0,0,0,3.734827264239029,27.744431105775643,0,0,0,0,56.582633053221286],[0,35.014619883040936,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,64.98538011695906]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":43.417366946778714,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15638","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Sachica","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.581879572312886,16.812080536912756,10.171345242435287],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15638|2023|Ordinary election|820","CO-ALC-15638|2019|Ordinary election|821","CO-ALC-15638|2015|Ordinary election|822"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15638|2023|Ordinary election|820","CO-ALC-15638|2019|Ordinary election|821","CO-ALC-15638|2015|Ordinary election|822"],"shares":[[0.34411930219471015,0.2583005064715813],[0.3912751677852349,0.22315436241610737],[0.3558148013124316,0.2541013488880787]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":43.950567856474564,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[1.4093959731543624,0,0,0,0,22.315436241610737,0,0,0,0,76.2751677852349],[0,13.598250091141086,25.410134888807875,35.58148013124316,0,25.410134888807875,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":77.68456375838926,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15646","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Samaca","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.292043566549751,25.712651349032324,52.692511949017515],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15646|2023|Ordinary election|823","CO-ALC-15646|2019|Ordinary election|824","CO-ALC-15646|2015|Ordinary election|825"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15646|2023|Ordinary election|823","CO-ALC-15646|2019|Ordinary election|824","CO-ALC-15646|2015|Ordinary election|825"],"shares":[[0.3870223370869485,0.344101901421451],[0.49995233101344266,0.24282581752311944],[0.7292618162506638,0.2023366967604886]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":22.208636302293506,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,34.4101901421451,0,0,0,0,0,0,65.5898098578549],[0,13.976546858613785,0,0,0,0,2.3167127466870054,9.428925541042997,0,0,74.27781485365621],[0,3.9830058417419014,0,0,0,2.857142857142857,0,0,0,0,93.15985130111524]],"volatility_latest":34.4101901421451,"volatility_previous":21.739179304601887,"volatility_mean":28.074684723373494,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15660","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"San Eduardo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.930662557781204,16.95052716950528,3.7865748709122187],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15660|2023|Ordinary election|826","CO-ALC-15660|2019|Ordinary election|827","CO-ALC-15660|2015|Ordinary election|828"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15660|2023|Ordinary election|826","CO-ALC-15660|2019|Ordinary election|827","CO-ALC-15660|2015|Ordinary election|828"],"shares":[[0.524653312788906,0.47534668721109397],[0.5831305758313058,0.413625304136253],[0.5189328743545611,0.4810671256454389]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":57.88893413694236,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,47.5346687211094,0,0,52.4653312788906,0,0,0,0,0],[0,0,0,0,0,41.3625304136253,0,0.32441200324412,0,0,58.31305758313058],[0,48.10671256454389,51.89328743545611,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":58.6374695863747,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":79.31873479318735,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15664","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"San Jose De Pare","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.14752889107450073,0.10245901639344623,6.130755532943269],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15664|2023|Ordinary election|829","CO-ALC-15664|2019|Ordinary election|830","CO-ALC-15664|2015|Ordinary election|831"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15664|2023|Ordinary election|829","CO-ALC-15664|2019|Ordinary election|830","CO-ALC-15664|2015|Ordinary election|831"],"shares":[[0.3361199901647406,0.3346447012539956],[0.49052254098360654,0.4894979508196721],[0.5306537776647163,0.46934622233528367]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":96.33834703571469,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,6.983034177526433,0,25.94049668059995,0,0,0,0,0,67.07646914187362],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0.25614754098360654,1.7418032786885247,0,0,98.00204918032787],[0,53.065377766471634,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,46.934622233528366]],"volatility_latest":32.923530858126384,"volatility_previous":53.065377766471634,"volatility_mean":42.99445431229901,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15667","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"San Luis De Gaceno","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.040681173131503,16.0518444666002,10.70158422243776],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15667|2023|Ordinary election|832","CO-ALC-15667|2019|Ordinary election|833","CO-ALC-15667|2015|Ordinary election|834"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15667|2023|Ordinary election|832","CO-ALC-15667|2019|Ordinary election|833","CO-ALC-15667|2015|Ordinary election|834"],"shares":[[0.5052034058656575,0.49479659413434246],[0.580259222333001,0.419740777666999],[0.5535079211121888,0.44649207888781123]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":67.44939766948632,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,41.9740777666999,0,58.0259222333001,0,0,0,0],[0,0,0,0,44.64920788878112,0,0,0,0,0,55.35079211121888]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":58.0259222333001,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15673","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"San Mateo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.37481259370314746,5.864774000747104,10.514018691588788],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15673|2023|Ordinary election|835","CO-ALC-15673|2019|Ordinary election|836","CO-ALC-15673|2015|Ordinary election|837"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15673|2023|Ordinary election|835","CO-ALC-15673|2019|Ordinary election|836","CO-ALC-15673|2015|Ordinary election|837"],"shares":[[0.5,0.4962518740629685],[0.5293238700037355,0.47067612999626446],[0.552570093457944,0.44742990654205606]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":84.82139187197551,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0.3748125937031484,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,99.62518740629685],[0,0,0,0,0,52.93238700037355,0,0,0,0,47.06761299962645],[0,0,0,0,55.257009345794394,0,0,0,0,0,44.742990654205606]],"volatility_latest":52.93238700037355,"volatility_previous":55.257009345794394,"volatility_mean":54.09469817308397,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15676","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"San Miguel De Sema","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.536988685813753,4.704097116843705,5.480167014613777],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15676|2023|Ordinary election|838","CO-ALC-15676|2019|Ordinary election|839","CO-ALC-15676|2015|Ordinary election|840"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15676|2023|Ordinary election|838","CO-ALC-15676|2019|Ordinary election|839","CO-ALC-15676|2015|Ordinary election|840"],"shares":[[0.5861618798955613,0.41079199303742386],[0.4881133029843197,0.4410723318158826],[0.5031315240083507,0.44832985386221297]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":37.5928047599863,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[41.079199303742385,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,58.920800696257615],[48.81133029843197,44.10723318158826,0,0,2.680829539706626,4.400606980273142,0,0,0,0,0],[44.832985386221296,50.31315240083507,4.853862212943633,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":58.920800696257615,"volatility_previous":11.05978143219044,"volatility_mean":34.990291064224024,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15681","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"San Pablo De Borbur","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.733999524149411,18.372379778051794,9.5927849139109],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15681|2023|Ordinary election|841","CO-ALC-15681|2019|Ordinary election|842","CO-ALC-15681|2015|Ordinary election|843"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15681|2023|Ordinary election|841","CO-ALC-15681|2019|Ordinary election|842","CO-ALC-15681|2015|Ordinary election|843"],"shares":[[0.5286699976207471,0.47133000237925293],[0.591861898890259,0.408138101109741],[0.4042088002186389,0.3082809510795299]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":50.443039303518624,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[40.420880021863894,0,0,30.828095107952993,2.3503689532659195,0,0,0,0,0,26.40065591691719]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15686","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Santana","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.786692759295498,13.680909447275582,16.92406692406692],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15686|2023|Ordinary election|844","CO-ALC-15686|2019|Ordinary election|845","CO-ALC-15686|2015|Ordinary election|846"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15686|2023|Ordinary election|844","CO-ALC-15686|2019|Ordinary election|845","CO-ALC-15686|2015|Ordinary election|846"],"shares":[[0.47338551859099803,0.28551859099804305],[0.5470403763230106,0.41023128185025476],[0.5203775203775204,0.35113685113685117]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":14.656524089166679,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,28.551859099804304,6.516634050880627,0,47.3385518590998,0,0,2.0743639921722115,0,0,15.518590998043052],[0,0,0,2.4108192865542923,41.02312818502548,0,0,1.862014896119169,0,0,54.70403763230106],[0,0,11.497211497211497,0,35.113685113685115,0,1.3513513513513513,0,0,0,52.037752037752036]],"volatility_latest":41.5962659208123,"volatility_previous":12.848562848562848,"volatility_mean":27.222414384687575,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15690","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Santa Maria","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[30.18213356461405,13.442325158946414,2.129673450070989],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15690|2023|Ordinary election|847","CO-ALC-15690|2019|Ordinary election|848","CO-ALC-15690|2015|Ordinary election|849"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15690|2023|Ordinary election|847","CO-ALC-15690|2019|Ordinary election|848","CO-ALC-15690|2015|Ordinary election|849"],"shares":[[0.614050303555941,0.31222896790980054],[0.4282470481380563,0.2938237965485922],[0.38476100331282537,0.36346426881211547]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[31.22289679098005,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.4310494362532524,0,0,67.3460537727667],[0,0,0,0,0,29.382379654859218,0,0,0,0,70.61762034514078],[0,0,25.177472787505916,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,74.8225272124941]],"volatility_latest":32.653946227233305,"volatility_previous":29.382379654859225,"volatility_mean":31.018162941046263,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15693","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Santa Rosa De Viterbo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.130928315969523,3.2828282828282838,6.039531478770133],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15693|2023|Ordinary election|850","CO-ALC-15693|2019|Ordinary election|851","CO-ALC-15693|2015|Ordinary election|852"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15693|2023|Ordinary election|850","CO-ALC-15693|2019|Ordinary election|851","CO-ALC-15693|2015|Ordinary election|852"],"shares":[[0.4039807183952729,0.22267143523557767],[0.2601010101010101,0.22727272727272727],[0.28806734992679356,0.22767203513909223]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":37.66320688846394,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[11.257969211631162,0,40.39807183952729,9.423106826310061,5.7844814181309285,0,0,0,0,0,33.136370704400555],[20.252525252525253,0,0,0,0,7.306397306397306,0,3.265993265993266,0,0,69.17508417508418],[22.767203513909223,3.440702781844802,28.806734992679356,0,22.56588579795022,22.4194729136164,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":55.60566008396828,"volatility_previous":72.44107744107744,"volatility_mean":64.02336876252286,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15696","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Santa Sofia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[25.756429652042357,15.27186761229315,23.04449648711944],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15696|2023|Ordinary election|853","CO-ALC-15696|2019|Ordinary election|854","CO-ALC-15696|2015|Ordinary election|855"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15696|2023|Ordinary election|853","CO-ALC-15696|2019|Ordinary election|854","CO-ALC-15696|2015|Ordinary election|855"],"shares":[[0.5075642965204236,0.25],[0.5763593380614658,0.4236406619385342],[0.5615925058548009,0.33114754098360655]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[57.635933806146575,0,0,0,42.364066193853425,0,0,0,0,0,0],[0,0,7.447306791569087,0,33.114754098360656,0,0,0,0,0,59.43793911007026]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":66.88524590163935,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15720","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Sativanorte","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.677746999076639,0.5741127348643005,10.102156640181612],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15720|2023|Ordinary election|856","CO-ALC-15720|2019|Ordinary election|857","CO-ALC-15720|2015|Ordinary election|858"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15720|2023|Ordinary election|856","CO-ALC-15720|2019|Ordinary election|857","CO-ALC-15720|2015|Ordinary election|858"],"shares":[[0.47876269621421974,0.4519852262234534],[0.47755741127348644,0.4718162839248434],[0.4642451759364359,0.36322360953461974]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":86.05451158038282,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,47.876269621421976,0,0,0,6.094182825484765,0,0,0,46.02954755309326],[0,0,5.062630480167015,0,0,47.75574112734864,0,0,0,0,47.18162839248434],[0,0,17.253121452894437,0,46.424517593643586,36.322360953461974,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":48.907821966739725,"volatility_previous":58.61500856637101,"volatility_mean":53.76141526655537,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15723","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Sativasur","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.74978204010462,9.537856440511305,0.7077856420626887],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15723|2023|Ordinary election|859","CO-ALC-15723|2019|Ordinary election|860","CO-ALC-15723|2015|Ordinary election|861"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15723|2023|Ordinary election|859","CO-ALC-15723|2019|Ordinary election|860","CO-ALC-15723|2015|Ordinary election|861"],"shares":[[0.5632083696599826,0.35571054925893636],[0.5476892822025565,0.4523107177974435],[0.5035389282103134,0.49646107178968657]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":23.089976397887845,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,8.108108108108109,0,0,0,35.571054925893634,0,0,0,0,56.320836965998254],[0,45.23107177974435,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,54.76892822025565],[50.353892821031344,49.646107178968656,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":37.12296367163624,"volatility_previous":54.76892822025565,"volatility_mean":45.94594594594595,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15740","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Siachoque","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[29.835728952772076,8.441158348736906,0.6333260537235184],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15740|2023|Ordinary election|862","CO-ALC-15740|2019|Ordinary election|863","CO-ALC-15740|2015|Ordinary election|864"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15740|2023|Ordinary election|862","CO-ALC-15740|2019|Ordinary election|863","CO-ALC-15740|2015|Ordinary election|864"],"shares":[[0.5891170431211499,0.29075975359342915],[0.3965906757034298,0.31217909221606077],[0.2954793623061804,0.2891461017689452]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,1.8480492813141685,0,0,1.1909650924024642,0,0,96.96098562628337],[0,8.235777367015814,0,0,0,0,0,3.0807147258163896,0,0,88.6835079071678],[29.54793623061804,0,11.618257261410788,3.1884690980563444,0,0,0,0,0,1.5068792312732038,54.13845817864163]],"volatility_latest":10.125527000429745,"volatility_previous":45.86154182135837,"volatility_mean":27.993534410894057,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15753","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Soata","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.394220081511676,25.44005929219937,6.497622820919176],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15753|2023|Ordinary election|865","CO-ALC-15753|2019|Ordinary election|866","CO-ALC-15753|2015|Ordinary election|867"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15753|2023|Ordinary election|865","CO-ALC-15753|2019|Ordinary election|866","CO-ALC-15753|2015|Ordinary election|867"],"shares":[[0.5072248981104113,0.3632826972952945],[0.546970539188438,0.29256994626644434],[0.5324881141045958,0.4675118858954041]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":15.408439406706332,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,16.045951454511766,0,0,0,0,83.95404854548823],[0,0,0,0,46.75118858954041,0,0,0,0,0,53.24881141045959]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":46.75118858954041,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15755","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Socota","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.579511749942963,14.312397851972914,17.699775952203137],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15755|2023|Ordinary election|868","CO-ALC-15755|2019|Ordinary election|869","CO-ALC-15755|2015|Ordinary election|870"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15755|2023|Ordinary election|868","CO-ALC-15755|2019|Ordinary election|869","CO-ALC-15755|2015|Ordinary election|870"],"shares":[[0.4919005247547342,0.2861054072553046],[0.4270371235115573,0.2839131449918282],[0.3930794124968882,0.21608165297485687]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":7.942979996110178,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,49.19005247547342,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,50.80994752452658],[0,0,0,0,42.70371235115573,0,0,4.809712818118141,0,0,52.48657483072612],[0,39.307941249688824,14.26437640029873,0,21.608165297485687,20.238984316654218,0,0,0,0,4.580532735872541]],"volatility_latest":49.190052475473415,"volatility_previous":73.81130196664176,"volatility_mean":61.500677221057586,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15757","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Socha","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.85881333910784,16.15759185480301,0.6896551724137936],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15757|2023|Ordinary election|871","CO-ALC-15757|2019|Ordinary election|872","CO-ALC-15757|2015|Ordinary election|873"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15757|2023|Ordinary election|871","CO-ALC-15757|2019|Ordinary election|872","CO-ALC-15757|2015|Ordinary election|873"],"shares":[[0.42854049372022524,0.28995236032914684],[0.46082337317397076,0.29924745462594066],[0.3603448275862069,0.35344827586206895]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":33.84234461426507,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[28.995236032914683,42.85404937202252,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,28.150714595062798],null,[13.694581280788178,36.03448275862069,0,0,14.926108374384237,35.3448275862069,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15759","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Sogamoso","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[21.238518116801682,9.10151485691054,3.767572633552014],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15759|2023|Ordinary election|874","CO-ALC-15759|2019|Ordinary election|875","CO-ALC-15759|2015|Ordinary election|876"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15759|2023|Ordinary election|874","CO-ALC-15759|2019|Ordinary election|875","CO-ALC-15759|2015|Ordinary election|876"],"shares":[[0.44812391960139647,0.23573873843337967],[0.36856804482703764,0.2775528962579322],[0.24164948453608248,0.20397375820056232]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":20.748387047453132,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,1.825238111378504,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,98.17476188862149],[0,0.9757304721333498,0,0,0,0,0,0,2.53477807434642,0,96.48949145352023],[0.10121836925960637,20.397375820056233,24.164948453608247,0,18.791002811621368,0,0,6.755388940955951,0,0,29.790065604498594]],"volatility_latest":3.5105085464797665,"volatility_previous":69.23420392336806,"volatility_mean":36.37235623492391,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15761","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Somondoco","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.2834984920293024,7.65788165091994,27.735368956743],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15761|2023|Ordinary election|877","CO-ALC-15761|2019|Ordinary election|878","CO-ALC-15761|2015|Ordinary election|879"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15761|2023|Ordinary election|877","CO-ALC-15761|2019|Ordinary election|878","CO-ALC-15761|2015|Ordinary election|879"],"shares":[[0.5062473071951745,0.4834123222748815],[0.42217802088513173,0.34559920437593233],[0.5536895674300254,0.27633587786259545]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":67.79499756916069,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,50.62473071951745,48.34123222748815,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.034037052994399],[23.222277473893584,0,0,34.559920437593235,0,42.217802088513174,0,0,0,0,0],[27.633587786259543,0,0,55.36895674300254,0,16.997455470737915,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":65.44007956240677,"volatility_previous":25.220346617775263,"volatility_mean":45.330213090091014,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15762","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Sora","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[38.67569601203913,5.869932432432435,1.481481481481481],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15762|2023|Ordinary election|880","CO-ALC-15762|2019|Ordinary election|881","CO-ALC-15762|2015|Ordinary election|882"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15762|2023|Ordinary election|880","CO-ALC-15762|2019|Ordinary election|881","CO-ALC-15762|2015|Ordinary election|882"],"shares":[[0.6933784800601956,0.30662151993980435],[0.46072635135135137,0.40202702702702703],[0.5074074074074074,0.4925925925925926]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15763","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Sotaquira","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.0494849525348435,13.509843856076031,29.041164658634536],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15763|2023|Ordinary election|883","CO-ALC-15763|2019|Ordinary election|884","CO-ALC-15763|2015|Ordinary election|885"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15763|2023|Ordinary election|883","CO-ALC-15763|2019|Ordinary election|884","CO-ALC-15763|2015|Ordinary election|885"],"shares":[[0.36780448394263787,0.31730963441728943],[0.42747227879610766,0.29237384023534735],[0.48042168674698793,0.19001004016064257]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":50.066197028964154,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15764","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Soraca","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.968308514700269,59.16047223436816,1.5283842794759792],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15764|2023|Ordinary election|886","CO-ALC-15764|2019|Ordinary election|887","CO-ALC-15764|2015|Ordinary election|888"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15764|2023|Ordinary election|886","CO-ALC-15764|2019|Ordinary election|887","CO-ALC-15764|2015|Ordinary election|888"],"shares":[[0.34784268804887364,0.2781596029018709],[0.74967205946655,0.15806733712286838],[0.381125667151868,0.3658418243571082]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15774","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Susacon","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.586206896551722,9.341723136495638,69.18335901386749],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15774|2023|Ordinary election|889","CO-ALC-15774|2019|Ordinary election|890","CO-ALC-15774|2015|Ordinary election|891"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15774|2023|Ordinary election|889","CO-ALC-15774|2019|Ordinary election|890","CO-ALC-15774|2015|Ordinary election|891"],"shares":[[0.5738916256157636,0.3980295566502463],[0.5464666021297192,0.45304937076476287],[0.8459167950693375,0.15408320493066255]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15776|2023|Ordinary election|892","CO-ALC-15776|2019|Ordinary election|893","CO-ALC-15776|2015|Ordinary election|894"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15776|2023|Ordinary election|892","CO-ALC-15776|2019|Ordinary election|893","CO-ALC-15776|2015|Ordinary election|894"],"shares":[[0.5345026985350809,0.44969159599074787],[0.5187393526405452,0.48126064735945484],[0.538605961042009,0.4613940389579911]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":65.07426734033562,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15778","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Sutatenza","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[27.472527472527474,9.144111192392103,1.611090295991005],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15778|2023|Ordinary election|895","CO-ALC-15778|2019|Ordinary election|896","CO-ALC-15778|2015|Ordinary election|897"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15778|2023|Ordinary election|895","CO-ALC-15778|2019|Ordinary election|896","CO-ALC-15778|2015|Ordinary election|897"],"shares":[[0.5391079508726567,0.26438267614738203],[0.5457205559619606,0.4542794440380395],[0.4634694642188085,0.44735856125889845]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":3.0607056458339166,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,18.648998060762768,0,1.0019392372333549,0,0,0,80.34906270200388],[54.57205559619605,0,0,0,45.42794440380395,0,0,0,0,0,0],[44.735856125889846,0,0,46.34694642188085,8.9171974522293,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":81.35100193923724,"volatility_previous":46.34694642188085,"volatility_mean":63.84897418055904,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15790","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Tasco","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[37.26415094339623,6.009547879809048,1.8922852983988356],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15790|2023|Ordinary election|898","CO-ALC-15790|2019|Ordinary election|899","CO-ALC-15790|2015|Ordinary election|900"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15790|2023|Ordinary election|898","CO-ALC-15790|2019|Ordinary election|899","CO-ALC-15790|2015|Ordinary election|900"],"shares":[[0.6065482796892342,0.23390677025527193],[0.4765515304689694,0.41645605167087896],[0.32692867540029114,0.30800582241630275]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,23.390677025527193,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,76.60932297447282],[0,41.64560516708789,0,0,10.699241786015165,0,0,0,0,0,47.65515304689694],[0,0,18.777292576419214,0,0,32.69286754002911,0,0,1.6302765647743813,0,46.8995633187773]],"volatility_latest":52.344846953103065,"volatility_previous":53.1004366812227,"volatility_mean":52.72264181716288,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15798","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Tenza","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[49.891696750902526,1.6104294478527592,27.510917030567683],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15798|2023|Ordinary election|901","CO-ALC-15798|2019|Ordinary election|902","CO-ALC-15798|2015|Ordinary election|903"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15798|2023|Ordinary election|901","CO-ALC-15798|2019|Ordinary election|902","CO-ALC-15798|2015|Ordinary election|903"],"shares":[[0.7490974729241877,0.25018050541516246],[0.4804447852760736,0.464340490797546],[0.6022231044065105,0.32711393410083367]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[25.018050541516246,0,0,0,0,74.90974729241877,0,0,0,0,0.07220216606498195],[0,0,0,0,0,46.4340490797546,0,0,0,0,53.5659509202454],[0,0,0,32.71139341008337,0,7.066296149265582,0,0,0,0,60.22231044065105]],"volatility_latest":53.493748754180416,"volatility_previous":39.36775293048902,"volatility_mean":46.43075084233472,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15804","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Tibana","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.30958798613785,9.169278996865202,30.73333333333333],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15804|2023|Ordinary election|904","CO-ALC-15804|2019|Ordinary election|905","CO-ALC-15804|2015|Ordinary election|906"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15804|2023|Ordinary election|904","CO-ALC-15804|2019|Ordinary election|905","CO-ALC-15804|2015|Ordinary election|906"],"shares":[[0.5866384289564883,0.4035425490951098],[0.4331896551724138,0.34149686520376177],[0.6184444444444445,0.3111111111111111]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":15.950650879621996,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15806","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Tibasosa","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.56228956228956,4.523550443028135,49.94140298007701],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15806|2023|Ordinary election|907","CO-ALC-15806|2019|Ordinary election|908","CO-ALC-15806|2015|Ordinary election|909"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15806|2023|Ordinary election|907","CO-ALC-15806|2019|Ordinary election|908","CO-ALC-15806|2015|Ordinary election|909"],"shares":[[0.3121885521885522,0.21656565656565657],[0.345095600808332,0.29986009637805067],[0.6947932362297002,0.1953792064289302]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":39.557104158550615,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15808","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Tinjaca","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.156022635408242,12.703435804701634,7.934782608695656],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15808|2023|Ordinary election|910","CO-ALC-15808|2019|Ordinary election|911","CO-ALC-15808|2015|Ordinary election|912"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15808|2023|Ordinary election|910","CO-ALC-15808|2019|Ordinary election|911","CO-ALC-15808|2015|Ordinary election|912"],"shares":[[0.5379951495553759,0.42643492320129345],[0.5619349005424955,0.43490054249547916],[0.5347826086956522,0.45543478260869563]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":43.50938708237499,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15810","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Tipacoque","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.3923182441701,0.9248982611912737,12.590695689287237],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15810|2023|Ordinary election|913","CO-ALC-15810|2019|Ordinary election|914","CO-ALC-15810|2015|Ordinary election|915"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15810|2023|Ordinary election|913","CO-ALC-15810|2019|Ordinary election|914","CO-ALC-15810|2015|Ordinary election|915"],"shares":[[0.5819615912208504,0.4180384087791495],[0.5046244913059563,0.4953755086940436],[0.5023474178403756,0.3764404609475032]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":43.140350031059185,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15814","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Toca","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.623376623376629,2.1981856245638483,20.92212320805889],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15814|2023|Ordinary election|916","CO-ALC-15814|2019|Ordinary election|917","CO-ALC-15814|2015|Ordinary election|918"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15814|2023|Ordinary election|916","CO-ALC-15814|2019|Ordinary election|917","CO-ALC-15814|2015|Ordinary election|918"],"shares":[[0.5581168831168831,0.4418831168831169],[0.5109909281228192,0.48900907187718073],[0.5056179775280899,0.29639674544750094]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":51.3715300889949,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,0,0,18.888027896164278,29.639674544750097,0,0,0,0.910499806276637,0,50.561797752808985]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15816","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Togui","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.294573643410857,1.0601915184678532,35.49337260677467],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15816|2023|Ordinary election|919","CO-ALC-15816|2019|Ordinary election|920","CO-ALC-15816|2015|Ordinary election|921"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15816|2023|Ordinary election|919","CO-ALC-15816|2019|Ordinary election|920","CO-ALC-15816|2015|Ordinary election|921"],"shares":[[0.47900516795865633,0.4460594315245478],[0.49179206566347466,0.48119015047879615],[0.642120765832106,0.2871870397643594]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":70.77930548867832,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,5.555555555555555,0,0,94.44444444444444],[0,0,1.6073871409028728,0,0,0,0,1.094391244870041,0,0,97.29822161422709],[64.2120765832106,28.718703976435936,6.811487481590574,0,0,0.11045655375552282,0,0,0,0,0.14727540500736377]],"volatility_latest":4.4611643106855166,"volatility_previous":98.24533745408976,"volatility_mean":51.35325088238764,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15820","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Topaga","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.266112266112259,46.24347127360386,35.149384885764505],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15820|2023|Ordinary election|922","CO-ALC-15820|2019|Ordinary election|923","CO-ALC-15820|2015|Ordinary election|924"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15820|2023|Ordinary election|922","CO-ALC-15820|2019|Ordinary election|923","CO-ALC-15820|2015|Ordinary election|924"],"shares":[[0.5613305613305613,0.4386694386694387],[0.7312173563680193,0.2687826436319807],[0.6757469244288226,0.3242530755711775]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[56.13305613305613,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,43.86694386694387],[73.12173563680193,0,0,0,0,26.87826436319807,0,0,0,0,0],[67.57469244288225,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,32.42530755711775]],"volatility_latest":43.86694386694387,"volatility_previous":32.42530755711775,"volatility_mean":38.14612571203081,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15822","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Tota","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.11016248967226261,33.22962041070318,16.30648330058939],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15822|2023|Ordinary election|925","CO-ALC-15822|2019|Ordinary election|926","CO-ALC-15822|2015|Ordinary election|927"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15822|2023|Ordinary election|925","CO-ALC-15822|2019|Ordinary election|926","CO-ALC-15822|2015|Ordinary election|927"],"shares":[[0.39355549435417236,0.39245386945744976],[0.664281269446173,0.3319850653391413],[0.5743287491814014,0.4112639161755075]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":41.67184026463375,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,4.323877719636464,0,0,95.67612228036353],null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,0.4256712508185986,0,0,0,99.5743287491814]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15832","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Tunungua","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.637982195845694,null,39.66165413533835],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15832|2023|Ordinary election|928","CO-ALC-15832|2019|Ordinary election|929","CO-ALC-15832|2015|Ordinary election|930"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15832|2023|Ordinary election|928","CO-ALC-15832|2019|Ordinary election|929","CO-ALC-15832|2015|Ordinary election|930"],"shares":[[0.5281899109792285,0.47181008902077154],[null,null],[0.6165413533834587,0.2199248120300752]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,100.0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[0,0,0,0,0,16.353383458646615,0,0,0,0,83.64661654135338]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15835","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Turmeque","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[56.85463010863942,56.866840731070496,9.027216383724067],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15835|2023|Ordinary election|931","CO-ALC-15835|2019|Ordinary election|932","CO-ALC-15835|2015|Ordinary election|933"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15835|2023|Ordinary election|931","CO-ALC-15835|2019|Ordinary election|932","CO-ALC-15835|2015|Ordinary election|933"],"shares":[[0.7672012415933781,0.19865494050698396],[0.7355091383812011,0.1668407310704961],[0.5451360819186203,0.45486391808137966]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,73.55091383812011,0,0,16.68407310704961,0,0.9921671018276762,0,5.848563968668407,0,2.9242819843342036],[0,45.48639180813797,0,0,0,0,0,0,54.51360819186203,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":48.66504422319363,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15837","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Tuta","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.745285842562105,13.914473684210527,20.484104046242777],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15837|2023|Ordinary election|934","CO-ALC-15837|2019|Ordinary election|935","CO-ALC-15837|2015|Ordinary election|936"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15837|2023|Ordinary election|934","CO-ALC-15837|2019|Ordinary election|935","CO-ALC-15837|2015|Ordinary election|936"],"shares":[[0.44313079916192755,0.3356779407363065],[0.5490131578947368,0.40986842105263155],[0.5877890173410405,0.3829479768786127]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":36.65037992287651,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,33.56779407363065,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,66.43220592636935],null,[38.29479768786127,0,0,0,0.12644508670520233,0,0,0,0,0,61.57875722543353]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15839","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Tutaza","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.506302521008408,2.628361858190708,12.782956058588553],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15839|2023|Ordinary election|937","CO-ALC-15839|2019|Ordinary election|938","CO-ALC-15839|2015|Ordinary election|939"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15839|2023|Ordinary election|937","CO-ALC-15839|2019|Ordinary election|938","CO-ALC-15839|2015|Ordinary election|939"],"shares":[[0.4012605042016807,0.3061974789915966],[0.3147921760391198,0.2885085574572127],[0.5639147802929427,0.4360852197070572]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":61.147071620394435,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,40.12605042016807,0,0,0,29.25420168067227,0,0,0,30.619747899159663],[0,0,0,0,28.850855745721272,31.47921760391198,0,23.34963325183374,0,0,16.320293398533007],[0,0,56.39147802929428,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,43.60852197070572]],"volatility_latest":83.67970660146699,"volatility_previous":83.67970660146699,"volatility_mean":83.67970660146699,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15842","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Umbita","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[27.749614282565574,23.310810810810814,35.46391752577319],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15842|2023|Ordinary election|940","CO-ALC-15842|2019|Ordinary election|941","CO-ALC-15842|2015|Ordinary election|942"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15842|2023|Ordinary election|940","CO-ALC-15842|2019|Ordinary election|941","CO-ALC-15842|2015|Ordinary election|942"],"shares":[[0.6387480714128279,0.36125192858717214],[0.5984555984555985,0.3653474903474903],[0.6757731958762886,0.3211340206185567]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,36.534749034749034,0,0,3.6196911196911197,0,59.84555984555985],[0,0,0,0.30927835051546393,67.57731958762886,32.11340206185567,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":67.88659793814433,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15861","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Ventaquemada","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[30.721303618499878,5.731577073691703,7.602792862684254],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15861|2023|Ordinary election|943","CO-ALC-15861|2019|Ordinary election|944","CO-ALC-15861|2015|Ordinary election|945"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15861|2023|Ordinary election|943","CO-ALC-15861|2019|Ordinary election|944","CO-ALC-15861|2015|Ordinary election|945"],"shares":[[0.5599089384136113,0.2526959022286125],[0.3613385546457814,0.3040227839088644],[0.44582363589345747,0.3697957072666149]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0.4433261442607237,0,0,0,0,99.55667385573928],[0,4.960246825679364,8.271033582532336,0,0,20.23258573632372,0,30.402278390886437,0,0,36.13385546457814],[0,2.857512283423843,0,0,0,0,7.6286527023532456,0,0,0,89.5138350142229]],"volatility_latest":63.42281839116114,"volatility_previous":61.008632251998016,"volatility_mean":62.215725321579576,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15879","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Viracacha","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.18585441404234,18.029456576942607,1.9240769630785195],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15879|2023|Ordinary election|946","CO-ALC-15879|2019|Ordinary election|947","CO-ALC-15879|2015|Ordinary election|948"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15879|2023|Ordinary election|946","CO-ALC-15879|2019|Ordinary election|947","CO-ALC-15879|2015|Ordinary election|948"],"shares":[[0.6009292720702117,0.3990707279297883],[0.5901472828847131,0.409852717115287],[0.48205928237129486,0.46281851274050967]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":11.436213410919805,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[60.09292720702117,0,0,0,0,39.90707279297883,0,0,0,0,0],[0,0,0,0,0,40.985271711528696,0,0,0,0,59.014728288471304],[46.281851274050965,0,1.8720748829953198,48.205928237129484,0,3.640145605824233,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":60.09292720702117,"volatility_previous":96.35985439417577,"volatility_mean":78.22639080059847,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-15897","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Zetaquira","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[34.79345716662046,17.418213969938108,8.720732948761452],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-15897|2023|Ordinary election|949","CO-ALC-15897|2019|Ordinary election|950","CO-ALC-15897|2015|Ordinary election|951"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-15897|2023|Ordinary election|949","CO-ALC-15897|2019|Ordinary election|950","CO-ALC-15897|2015|Ordinary election|951"],"shares":[[0.6739672858331024,0.3260327141668977],[0.5870910698496905,0.41290893015030944],[0.5436036647438073,0.4563963352561927]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,41.290893015030946,0,0,0,0,58.709106984969054],[0,45.639633525619274,0,54.360366474380726,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-17001","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Manizales","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[56.47740891835566,13.275667313311885,3.3486489091668545],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-17001|2023|Ordinary election|952","CO-ALC-17001|2019|Ordinary election|953","CO-ALC-17001|2015|Ordinary election|954"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-17001|2023|Ordinary election|952","CO-ALC-17001|2019|Ordinary election|953","CO-ALC-17001|2015|Ordinary election|954"],"shares":[[0.6980653083875995,0.13329121920404297],[0.4649031259975935,0.33214645286447464],[0.3178742409150789,0.2843877518234103]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[8.761019571249662,0,0,0,0,46.49031259975935,0,0,0,0,44.74866782899099],[0,0,0,0,27.640651608135464,12.133149118015615,0,0,0,0,60.22619927384892]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":43.118183052993395,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-17013","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Aguadas","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.38040757954952,1.7268591588524735,22.547722547722547],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-17013|2023|Ordinary election|955","CO-ALC-17013|2019|Ordinary election|956","CO-ALC-17013|2015|Ordinary election|957"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-17013|2023|Ordinary election|955","CO-ALC-17013|2019|Ordinary election|956","CO-ALC-17013|2015|Ordinary election|957"],"shares":[[0.35922416875223456,0.22542009295673934],[0.31575526877727234,0.29848667718874755],[0.4258174258174258,0.20034020034020034]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":45.99462724921146,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,4.7908473364318915,0,0,0,11.771540936717912,0,0,0,0,83.4376117268502],[29.848667718874758,31.57552687772723,12.190140191254294,0,4.345000464209451,0,0,0,0,0,22.04066474793427],[20.034020034020035,9.941409941409942,42.58174258174258,11.954261954261954,15.488565488565488,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":73.16848791563383,"volatility_previous":53.48942936910628,"volatility_mean":63.328958642370054,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-17042","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Anserma","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.664636941007004,5.336475154203342,0.4864260829553615],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-17042|2023|Ordinary election|958","CO-ALC-17042|2019|Ordinary election|959","CO-ALC-17042|2015|Ordinary election|960"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-17042|2023|Ordinary election|958","CO-ALC-17042|2019|Ordinary election|959","CO-ALC-17042|2015|Ordinary election|960"],"shares":[[0.5366332744058142,0.39998690499574413],[0.47972832490124057,0.42636357335920716],[0.3485177151120752,0.34365345428252153]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":50.758163404196296,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,6.33798205984417,0,0,0,0,0,93.66201794015583],[3.2157460669485065,0,5.184004435511817,0,0,0.9910596714949061,0,0,0,0,90.60918982604477],[34.85177151120752,9.754814960888714,21.028068099651612,0,34.365345428252155,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":9.390810173955233,"volatility_previous":91.60024949753968,"volatility_mean":50.495529835747455,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-17050","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Aranzazu","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[40.25127226463104,0.5013368983957207,15.516698172652802],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-17050|2023|Ordinary election|961","CO-ALC-17050|2019|Ordinary election|962","CO-ALC-17050|2015|Ordinary election|963"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-17050|2023|Ordinary election|961","CO-ALC-17050|2019|Ordinary election|962","CO-ALC-17050|2015|Ordinary election|963"],"shares":[[0.5928753180661578,0.19036259541984735],[0.5025066844919786,0.4974933155080214],[0.4954316320100819,0.3402646502835539]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,18.384223918575064,0,0,3.2919847328244276,0,0,78.32379134860051],null,[49.54316320100819,0,8.049779458097039,0,8.380592312539383,34.02646502835539,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-17088","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Belalcazar","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.014356520252946,22.048213971493922,12.824868354000344],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-17088|2023|Ordinary election|964","CO-ALC-17088|2019|Ordinary election|965","CO-ALC-17088|2015|Ordinary election|966"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-17088|2023|Ordinary election|964","CO-ALC-17088|2019|Ordinary election|965","CO-ALC-17088|2015|Ordinary election|966"],"shares":[[0.5800717826012647,0.41992821739873526],[0.6102410698574696,0.3897589301425304],[0.47409546458297946,0.345846781042976]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":12.47217530500011,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,38.97589301425304,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,61.02410698574696],[0.22082554781722438,2.853745541022592,47.409546458297946,0,34.5846781042976,14.931204348564634,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":61.02410698574696,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-17174","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Chinchina","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.785735214097357,22.13038745313067,14.547655339370575],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-17174|2023|Ordinary election|967","CO-ALC-17174|2019|Ordinary election|968","CO-ALC-17174|2015|Ordinary election|969"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-17174|2023|Ordinary election|967","CO-ALC-17174|2019|Ordinary election|968","CO-ALC-17174|2015|Ordinary election|969"],"shares":[[0.3124607592817379,0.2246034071407643],[0.4497036648792485,0.2283997903479418],[0.4304223078992199,0.2849457545055142]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":33.17338550832664,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,3.06391528190532,0,0,0,0,0,96.93608471809469],[18.090553562069104,0,22.83997903479418,0,0,1.8102648873120186,0,0,0,0,57.259202515824704],[20.384649869990138,28.49457545055142,43.042230789921994,0.2869183179413611,7.424011476732717,0,0.36761409486236885,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":42.7407974841753,"volatility_previous":59.06946740313672,"volatility_mean":50.905132443656015,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-17272","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Filadelfia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.327774882751434,2.3371989295272044,11.078414401938723],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-17272|2023|Ordinary election|970","CO-ALC-17272|2019|Ordinary election|971","CO-ALC-17272|2015|Ordinary election|972"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-17272|2023|Ordinary election|970","CO-ALC-17272|2019|Ordinary election|971","CO-ALC-17272|2015|Ordinary election|972"],"shares":[[0.41723119680389087,0.32395344797637654],[0.4547725245316681,0.4314005352363961],[0.5539207200969362,0.4431365760775489]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":62.971669756485525,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[17.213826645822476,0,0,0,0,8.077123501823866,0,0,0,0,74.70904985235364],[8.7957181088314,43.14005352363961,45.47725245316681,0,0,1.8198037466547725,0,0,0,0,0.7671721677074042],[0,44.31365760775489,55.392072009693614,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.2942703825514973]],"volatility_latest":88.61730597680642,"volatility_previous":11.088423640642082,"volatility_mean":49.85286480872425,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-17380","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"La Dorada","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.850758712689675,5.840899850928309,4.215702899779544],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-17380|2023|Ordinary election|973","CO-ALC-17380|2019|Ordinary election|974","CO-ALC-17380|2015|Ordinary election|975"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-17380|2023|Ordinary election|973","CO-ALC-17380|2019|Ordinary election|974","CO-ALC-17380|2015|Ordinary election|975"],"shares":[[0.5227947306986827,0.37428714357178594],[0.30447892668383253,0.24606992817454942],[0.38629811768695943,0.344141088689164]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":44.578522635648746,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0.35912725301531373,0,0,0,0,0,24.60699281745494,0,0.6708226046889822,0,74.36305732484077],[0,16.56774631168391,0,38.629811768695944,8.45514668475496,0,1.1293878243174496,0,0.803798541631338,0,34.4141088689164]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":63.78568070207717,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-17388","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"La Merced","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.397209792050539,6.03448275862069,22.422895248680184],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-17388|2023|Ordinary election|976","CO-ALC-17388|2019|Ordinary election|977","CO-ALC-17388|2015|Ordinary election|978"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-17388|2023|Ordinary election|976","CO-ALC-17388|2019|Ordinary election|977","CO-ALC-17388|2015|Ordinary election|978"],"shares":[[0.4840747565148723,0.39010265859436694],[0.4896551724137931,0.4293103448275862],[0.5712697971658794,0.34704084467907753]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":51.545198861577255,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,48.40747565148723,39.01026585943669,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,12.582258489076073],[0,48.96551724137931,42.93103448275862,0,7.212643678160919,0,0,0,0.45977011494252873,0,0.43103448275862066],[34.704084467907755,57.12697971658794,0,0,3.5843289802722977,0,0,0,0.4723534315087524,0,4.1122534037232565]],"volatility_latest":12.151224006317452,"volatility_previous":46.559349180647246,"volatility_mean":29.355286593482347,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-17433","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Manzanares","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.329066841702218,7.061529614721103,4.2519493177387915],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-17433|2023|Ordinary election|979","CO-ALC-17433|2019|Ordinary election|980","CO-ALC-17433|2015|Ordinary election|981"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-17433|2023|Ordinary election|979","CO-ALC-17433|2019|Ordinary election|980","CO-ALC-17433|2015|Ordinary election|981"],"shares":[[0.3616672136527732,0.238376545235751],[0.32685451408855665,0.2562392179413456],[0.3601364522417154,0.31761695906432746]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":50.294530393942296,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,6.574773000765781,10.655289355650366,0,0,0,0,82.76993764358386],[20.299022426682,0,32.68545140885566,0,21.391604370327773,0,0,0,0,25.62392179413456,0],[31.76169590643275,3.301656920077973,36.01364522417154,0,6.737329434697855,0,0,0,0,0,22.18567251461988]],"volatility_latest":93.42522699923423,"volatility_previous":40.27819672976448,"volatility_mean":66.85171186449935,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-17442","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Marmato","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.362748926200705,6.26339604667778,27.94833792081304],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-17442|2023|Ordinary election|982","CO-ALC-17442|2019|Ordinary election|983","CO-ALC-17442|2015|Ordinary election|984"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-17442|2023|Ordinary election|982","CO-ALC-17442|2019|Ordinary election|983","CO-ALC-17442|2015|Ordinary election|984"],"shares":[[0.4066770792659118,0.29304959000390474],[0.3791378899738033,0.3165039295070255],[0.6038534829557485,0.32437010374761804]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":42.54249019097469,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,40.66770792659118,0,0,1.6595080046856696,0,0,0,0,0,57.67278406872315],[37.91378899738033,31.65039295070255,25.577518456775422,0,0.1905215527506549,0,0,0,0,0,4.6677780423910455],[0,32.437010374761805,60.38534829557484,0,3.5994071564683465,0,0.2752487825534618,0,3.260639424094855,0,0.04234596654668643]],"volatility_latest":63.49130745415575,"volatility_previous":42.53922107322469,"volatility_mean":53.01526426369022,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-17444","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Marquetalia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.355274029193058,2.4461991020281744,19.81503941782899],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-17444|2023|Ordinary election|985","CO-ALC-17444|2019|Ordinary election|986","CO-ALC-17444|2015|Ordinary election|987"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-17444|2023|Ordinary election|985","CO-ALC-17444|2019|Ordinary election|986","CO-ALC-17444|2015|Ordinary election|987"],"shares":[[0.3526576700633434,0.24910492977141285],[0.2102492645920421,0.18578727357176036],[0.41115827774408736,0.21300788356579745]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":55.35735955046406,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[16.67440780306549,0,1.9972131908964237,14.15079733704908,18.578727357176035,21.02492645920421,0,0,0,0,27.57392785260876],[7.944208611279564,0,20.542753183747728,21.300788356579744,41.115827774408736,0,9.096422073984233,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":57.3290535035989,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-17446","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Marulanda","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[21.559633027522942,11.003861003861005,25.407925407925404],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-17446|2023|Ordinary election|988","CO-ALC-17446|2019|Ordinary election|989","CO-ALC-17446|2015|Ordinary election|990"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-17446|2023|Ordinary election|988","CO-ALC-17446|2019|Ordinary election|989","CO-ALC-17446|2015|Ordinary election|990"],"shares":[[0.5838794233289647,0.36828309305373524],[0.4749034749034749,0.36486486486486486],[0.627039627039627,0.372960372960373]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":6.111346707676968,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-17486","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Neira","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.460505389644815,15.084634807818205,16.072782410917362],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-17486|2023|Ordinary election|991","CO-ALC-17486|2019|Ordinary election|992","CO-ALC-17486|2015|Ordinary election|993"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-17486|2023|Ordinary election|991","CO-ALC-17486|2019|Ordinary election|992","CO-ALC-17486|2015|Ordinary election|993"],"shares":[[0.4505212935147553,0.28591623961830714],[0.575423174039091,0.42457682596090895],[0.5680439727065959,0.4073161485974223]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":19.95514041387956,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[5.8932673617246865,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,94.1067326382753],[0,0,42.4576825960909,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,57.5423174039091],[0.7297194844579227,40.73161485974223,56.80439727065959,0,0.6728582259287339,1.061410159211524,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":42.45768259609089,"volatility_previous":57.5423174039091,"volatility_mean":50.0,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-17495","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Norcasia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.571770908219506,11.476725521669344,14.21514818880351],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-17495|2023|Ordinary election|994","CO-ALC-17495|2019|Ordinary election|995","CO-ALC-17495|2015|Ordinary election|996"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-17495|2023|Ordinary election|994","CO-ALC-17495|2019|Ordinary election|995","CO-ALC-17495|2015|Ordinary election|996"],"shares":[[0.4263120057512581,0.24059429666906304],[0.4400749063670412,0.32530765115034777],[0.5628430296377607,0.4206915477497256]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":19.962024898435704,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,42.63120057512581,6.014857416726576,0,0,0,24.059429666906304,0,0,0,27.29451234124131],[0,32.530765115034775,44.00749063670412,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,23.461744248261102],[0,56.28430296377607,42.06915477497256,0,1.646542261251372,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":37.99263321997755,"volatility_previous":25.400080109992665,"volatility_mean":31.696356664985107,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-17513","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Pacora","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[29.254512884111897,56.7369654364382,47.95286297023719],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-17513|2023|Ordinary election|997","CO-ALC-17513|2019|Ordinary election|998","CO-ALC-17513|2015|Ordinary election|999"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-17513|2023|Ordinary election|997","CO-ALC-17513|2019|Ordinary election|998","CO-ALC-17513|2015|Ordinary election|999"],"shares":[[0.6462725644205595,0.35372743557944053],[0.783684827182191,0.21631517281780901],[0.6241124036863575,0.1445837739839855]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,21.6315172817809,78.3684827182191],[9.095029460643602,62.411240368635745,14.035352772322103,0,14.45837739839855,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-17524","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Palestina","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.165644171779142,3.6174690870823483,13.233359642199424],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-17524|2023|Ordinary election|1000","CO-ALC-17524|2019|Ordinary election|1001","CO-ALC-17524|2015|Ordinary election|1002"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-17524|2023|Ordinary election|1000","CO-ALC-17524|2019|Ordinary election|1001","CO-ALC-17524|2015|Ordinary election|1002"],"shares":[[0.4699386503067485,0.37828220858895706],[0.3397790055248619,0.3036043146540384],[0.49552749276506186,0.3631938963430676]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":60.460184032939345,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,14.085889570552148,0,0,0,0,85.91411042944786],[4.091028676664036,30.360431465403842,33.97790055248619,0,0,8.31360168376743,3.8147855827413837,0,0,0,19.44225203893712],[0,36.31938963430676,49.552749276506184,0,12.812417784793475,0,1.3154433043935807,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":72.24414627729546,"volatility_previous":34.346224677716386,"volatility_mean":53.295185477505925,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-17541","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Pensilvania","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.175487189633003,4.777102851848035,29.0769750929787],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-17541|2023|Ordinary election|1003","CO-ALC-17541|2019|Ordinary election|1004","CO-ALC-17541|2015|Ordinary election|1005"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-17541|2023|Ordinary election|1003","CO-ALC-17541|2019|Ordinary election|1004","CO-ALC-17541|2015|Ordinary election|1005"],"shares":[[0.570877435948165,0.42912256405183496],[0.44363224544424995,0.3958612169257696],[0.5821030091288177,0.2913332581990308]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":35.7693966068396,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,39.58612169257696,0,0,0,0,0,60.41387830742304],[0,0,10.774258987940945,29.133325819903078,58.21030091288178,0,0,1.8821142792742027,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":60.41387830742304,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-17614","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Riosucio","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.665370446172737,17.961807525051995,12.803334822093198],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-17614|2023|Ordinary election|1006","CO-ALC-17614|2019|Ordinary election|1007","CO-ALC-17614|2015|Ordinary election|1008"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-17614|2023|Ordinary election|1006","CO-ALC-17614|2019|Ordinary election|1007","CO-ALC-17614|2015|Ordinary election|1008"],"shares":[[0.4670998772001637,0.37044617273843633],[0.5898090376252599,0.41019096237474],[0.4517393677733115,0.32370601955237954]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":37.65950996285719,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0.07674989766680311,37.044617273843635,0,0,0,46.70998772001637,0,0,16.16864510847319],[0,0,0,0,58.980903762526,0,0,41.019096237474,0,0,0],[0,0,22.4554612674309,0,32.37060195523795,0,0,45.17393677733115,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":58.980903762526,"volatility_previous":26.610301807288046,"volatility_mean":42.79560278490702,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-17616","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Risaralda","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.05314437555358609,27.26613488034808,15.074573863636367],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-17616|2023|Ordinary election|1009","CO-ALC-17616|2019|Ordinary election|1010","CO-ALC-17616|2015|Ordinary election|1011"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-17616|2023|Ordinary election|1009","CO-ALC-17616|2019|Ordinary election|1010","CO-ALC-17616|2015|Ordinary election|1011"],"shares":[[0.48166519043401235,0.4811337466784765],[0.5190355329949239,0.24637418419144308],[0.5095880681818182,0.35884232954545453]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":51.40407762099895,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,48.16651904340124,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,51.833480956598756],[0.7976794778825236,51.90355329949239,24.637418419144307,0,20.594633792603336,0,0,0,0,0,2.0667150108774477],[4.847301136363637,35.88423295454545,50.95880681818182,0,8.309659090909092,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":49.76676594572131,"volatility_previous":30.371010057518625,"volatility_mean":40.06888800161997,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-17653","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Salamina","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.101371496720333,7.6216828071940625,6.493506493506494],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-17653|2023|Ordinary election|1012","CO-ALC-17653|2019|Ordinary election|1013","CO-ALC-17653|2015|Ordinary election|1014"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-17653|2023|Ordinary election|1012","CO-ALC-17653|2019|Ordinary election|1013","CO-ALC-17653|2015|Ordinary election|1014"],"shares":[[0.32450805008944544,0.2234943351222421],[0.4757892089045403,0.39957238083259966],[0.3476977567886659,0.2827626918536009]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":55.01660805229467,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,21.288014311270125,0,0,0,0,78.71198568872985],[2.9304490001257704,0,39.957238083259966,2.3519054207017986,5.823166897245629,0.5659665450886681,0,0,0.7923531631241353,0,47.57892089045403],[28.276269185360093,34.76977567886659,0,14.35655253837072,2.219598583234947,0,0,0,0,0,20.37780401416765]],"volatility_latest":51.85511256445729,"volatility_previous":72.12024298176983,"volatility_mean":61.98767777311356,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-17662","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Samana","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.48748476610106195,24.14146591491543,8.63754238978656],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-17662|2023|Ordinary election|1015","CO-ALC-17662|2019|Ordinary election|1016","CO-ALC-17662|2015|Ordinary election|1017"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-17662|2023|Ordinary election|1015","CO-ALC-17662|2019|Ordinary election|1016","CO-ALC-17662|2015|Ordinary election|1017"],"shares":[[0.48523483641136217,0.4803599887503516],[0.6164018452075859,0.37498718605843157],[0.5431877119489328,0.4568122880510672]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":58.00657563443039,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,0.8610968733982574,0,0,0,99.13890312660175],null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-17665","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"San Jose","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.957415565345087,23.40083574413372,2.21606648199446],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-17665|2023|Ordinary election|1018","CO-ALC-17665|2019|Ordinary election|1019","CO-ALC-17665|2015|Ordinary election|1020"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-17665|2023|Ordinary election|1018","CO-ALC-17665|2019|Ordinary election|1019","CO-ALC-17665|2015|Ordinary election|1020"],"shares":[[0.5447870778267254,0.4552129221732746],[0.5091610414657667,0.27515268402442944],[0.3548784241305017,0.3327177593105571]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":36.91846644676693,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[50.916104146576664,0,18.289938926390228,0,0,3.278688524590164,0,0,0,0,27.515268402442945],[35.48784241305017,30.532471529701446,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,33.97968605724838]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":36.996889184506884,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-17777","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Supia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.897312474929805,19.705614818490034,8.032973778830133],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-17777|2023|Ordinary election|1021","CO-ALC-17777|2019|Ordinary election|1022","CO-ALC-17777|2015|Ordinary election|1023"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-17777|2023|Ordinary election|1021","CO-ALC-17777|2019|Ordinary election|1022","CO-ALC-17777|2015|Ordinary election|1023"],"shares":[[0.3337344564781388,0.21476133172884077],[0.590010750020673,0.39295460183577274],[0.4042795755502938,0.3239498377619925]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":30.73315345806047,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[33.37344564781388,0,0,0,0,9.370236662655435,0,0,0,0,57.25631768953069],[0,0,0,0,0,1.7034648143554123,0,0,0,0,98.29653518564459],[0,0,0,3.2886082609839518,32.39498377619925,0,0,0,0,0,64.31640796281681]],"volatility_latest":41.0402174961139,"volatility_previous":35.683592037183196,"volatility_mean":38.36190476664855,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-17867","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Victoria","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.282210903603094,9.038350356523416,28.444264616629575],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-17867|2023|Ordinary election|1024","CO-ALC-17867|2019|Ordinary election|1025","CO-ALC-17867|2015|Ordinary election|1026"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-17867|2023|Ordinary election|1024","CO-ALC-17867|2019|Ordinary election|1025","CO-ALC-17867|2015|Ordinary election|1026"],"shares":[[0.3159781173363516,0.27315600830032066],[0.3372518789747543,0.2468683754095201],[0.550070807202104,0.2656281610358082]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":59.37370944609081,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.2261837389171855,0,27.315600830032068,0,0,12.922090171665724,0,0,0,0,58.536125259385024],[0,23.43418770476007,24.686837540952013,9.65503950664868,0,0,0,0,0,0,42.22393524763924],[0,0,0,55.007080720210396,18.43010317620878,0,0,0,0,0,26.562816103580822]],"volatility_latest":33.08922721140875,"volatility_previous":63.7821443897705,"volatility_mean":48.435685800589624,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-17873","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Villamaria","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.497251374312846,23.734844491302056,14.55317142183447],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-17873|2023|Ordinary election|1027","CO-ALC-17873|2019|Ordinary election|1028","CO-ALC-17873|2015|Ordinary election|1029"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-17873|2023|Ordinary election|1027","CO-ALC-17873|2019|Ordinary election|1028","CO-ALC-17873|2015|Ordinary election|1029"],"shares":[[0.30134932533733133,0.24637681159420288],[0.5091811632402038,0.27183271832718325],[0.41334590898373025,0.26781419476538554]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":40.62939342919114,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,16.66858878253181,0,0,3.325260446699727,0,0,0,0,80.00615077076847],[0.7687576875768758,0,27.183271832718326,0,0,10.125636970655421,0,0,0,0,61.92233350904937],[0,0,41.33459089837302,4.541381749587361,21.692996934685215,0,5.145012968639472,0,0,0.5045979721763735,26.781419476538552]],"volatility_latest":18.08381726171909,"volatility_previous":46.03530869074312,"volatility_mean":32.059562976231106,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-17877","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Viterbo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.304526748971199,28.41621395737568,18.2046204620462],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-17877|2023|Ordinary election|1030","CO-ALC-17877|2019|Ordinary election|1031","CO-ALC-17877|2015|Ordinary election|1032"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-17877|2023|Ordinary election|1030","CO-ALC-17877|2019|Ordinary election|1031","CO-ALC-17877|2015|Ordinary election|1032"],"shares":[[0.4525377229080933,0.4294924554183813],[0.5775177601337234,0.29335562055996656],[0.5122112211221121,0.3301650165016502]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":41.35978858599978,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[42.94924554183813,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,57.05075445816187],[57.751776013372336,0,0,0,0,0,29.335562055996657,0,0,0,12.912661930631007],[33.01650165016502,0,51.22112211221122,0,15.762376237623762,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":44.13809252753086,"volatility_previous":66.98349834983497,"volatility_mean":55.560795438682916,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-18001","country":"Colombia","region":"Caqueta","name":"Florencia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.1894342654633618,4.557130779735971,16.52028302661172],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-18001|2023|Ordinary election|1033","CO-ALC-18001|2019|Ordinary election|1034","CO-ALC-18001|2015|Ordinary election|1035"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-18001|2023|Ordinary election|1033","CO-ALC-18001|2019|Ordinary election|1034","CO-ALC-18001|2015|Ordinary election|1035"],"shares":[[0.2762385755484454,0.2643442328938118],[0.3795278662938154,0.3339565584964557],[0.3615976885065585,0.19639485824044128]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":81.3358595207001,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,6.845344849850065,26.43442328938118,0,0,0,0,66.72023186076876],[0,0,0,0,33.39565584964557,37.95278662938154,17.55381413799831,0,0,0,11.097743382974572],[0,4.985799418843269,0.615632131072185,17.341125868041306,36.15976885065585,0,19.63948582404413,0,0,0,21.25818790734326]],"volatility_latest":55.622488477794185,"volatility_previous":37.95278662938154,"volatility_mean":46.787637553587864,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-18029","country":"Colombia","region":"Caqueta","name":"Albania","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.098302055406613,14.006849315068493,0.5867253392005907],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-18029|2023|Ordinary election|1036","CO-ALC-18029|2019|Ordinary election|1037","CO-ALC-18029|2015|Ordinary election|1038"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-18029|2023|Ordinary election|1036","CO-ALC-18029|2019|Ordinary election|1037","CO-ALC-18029|2015|Ordinary election|1038"],"shares":[[0.5388739946380697,0.43789097408400357],[0.5482876712328767,0.40821917808219177],[0.46901356802346905,0.4631463146314631]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":48.40145719157712,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,53.88739946380697,0,0,0,2.323503127792672,0,0,0,0,43.78909740840036],[0,0,0,0,40.821917808219176,3.904109589041096,0,0,0,0,55.273972602739725],[46.9013568023469,2.126879354602127,46.31463146314631,0,0,0,4.657132379904657,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":53.88739946380697,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":76.94369973190348,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-18094","country":"Colombia","region":"Caqueta","name":"Belen De Los Andaquies","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.831568816169398,10.321931589537222,13.196611680784663],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-18094|2023|Ordinary election|1039","CO-ALC-18094|2019|Ordinary election|1040","CO-ALC-18094|2015|Ordinary election|1041"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-18094|2023|Ordinary election|1039","CO-ALC-18094|2019|Ordinary election|1040","CO-ALC-18094|2015|Ordinary election|1041"],"shares":[[0.3322425409047161,0.28392685274302215],[0.4883299798792756,0.3851106639839034],[0.43178778421756575,0.2998216674097191]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":63.424090326793646,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,28.392685274302213,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,71.60731472569779],[48.83299798792756,38.51106639839034,0,0,10.885311871227364,0,0,1.7706237424547284,0,0,0],[43.178778421756576,0,26.83905483727151,0,0,29.982166740971913,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":71.60731472569779,"volatility_previous":56.821221578243424,"volatility_mean":64.2142681519706,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-18150","country":"Colombia","region":"Caqueta","name":"Cartagena Del Chaira","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[33.02218035454312,4.501377972848836,5.382155067828389],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-18150|2023|Ordinary election|1042","CO-ALC-18150|2019|Ordinary election|1043","CO-ALC-18150|2015|Ordinary election|1044"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-18150|2023|Ordinary election|1042","CO-ALC-18150|2019|Ordinary election|1043","CO-ALC-18150|2015|Ordinary election|1044"],"shares":[[0.5531386486255031,0.22291684508007192],[0.3535776258038175,0.30856384607532916],[0.2896217050843719,0.235800154406088]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,12.07501926864777,10.319431360794725,0,0,0,77.6055493705575],[4.195161784219659,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,95.80483821578035],[21.462446233594353,0,0,5.768170287857064,0,20.227197529502593,28.96217050843719,0,0,0,23.5800154406088]],"volatility_latest":22.394450629442503,"volatility_previous":72.22482277517155,"volatility_mean":47.309636702307024,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-18205","country":"Colombia","region":"Caqueta","name":"Curillo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[24.34067263488991,9.140201394268008,8.73940677966101],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-18205|2023|Ordinary election|1045","CO-ALC-18205|2019|Ordinary election|1046","CO-ALC-18205|2015|Ordinary election|1047"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-18205|2023|Ordinary election|1045","CO-ALC-18205|2019|Ordinary election|1046","CO-ALC-18205|2015|Ordinary election|1047"],"shares":[[0.4718122429228163,0.22840551657391725],[0.3617350890782339,0.2703330751355538],[0.44782838983050843,0.36043432203389836]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":8.897976614097768,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[6.919912896201306,47.181224292281634,0,22.840551657391725,0,15.872247761916283,7.089281393660779,0,0,0,0.09678199854827002],[36.17350890782339,27.033307513555382,1.884843790343403,1.5233668990446683,1.6008262328943972,9.08856183836819,22.695584817970566,0,0,0,0],[36.043432203389834,0,44.782838983050844,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,19.173728813559322]],"volatility_latest":48.345569459169674,"volatility_previous":62.07172400626676,"volatility_mean":55.20864673271822,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-18247","country":"Colombia","region":"Caqueta","name":"El Doncello","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.7488604297807697,27.67007402185407,14.660156751895151],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-18247|2023|Ordinary election|1048","CO-ALC-18247|2019|Ordinary election|1049","CO-ALC-18247|2015|Ordinary election|1050"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-18247|2023|Ordinary election|1048","CO-ALC-18247|2019|Ordinary election|1049","CO-ALC-18247|2015|Ordinary election|1050"],"shares":[[0.342956370740178,0.33546776644237025],[0.6215485841851721,0.34484784396663143],[0.5037903122189387,0.3571887446999872]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":48.918229301929,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,33.54677664423703,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,66.45322335576296],null,[0,35.71887446999872,0,50.37903122189387,0,0,0,0,0,0,13.902094308107413]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-18256","country":"Colombia","region":"Caqueta","name":"El Paujil","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[21.08522559716898,17.270919381979503,9.971098265895954],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-18256|2023|Ordinary election|1051","CO-ALC-18256|2019|Ordinary election|1052","CO-ALC-18256|2015|Ordinary election|1053"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-18256|2023|Ordinary election|1051","CO-ALC-18256|2019|Ordinary election|1052","CO-ALC-18256|2015|Ordinary election|1053"],"shares":[[0.4901209082866411,0.27926865231495135],[0.5172097292335934,0.3445005354137984],[0.5038535645472062,0.4041425818882466]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":5.852395002575839,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,27.926865231495135,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,72.07313476850487],[0,51.72097292335934,0,0,8.551323236958849,5.277650298301974,0,0,0,0,34.45005354137984],[1.8946692357096981,7.305716120745022,40.41425818882466,50.385356454720615,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":37.623081227125034,"volatility_previous":92.69428387925497,"volatility_mean":65.15868255319,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-18410","country":"Colombia","region":"Caqueta","name":"La Montañita","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.083448189449939,1.6082711085582986,7.522783761391878],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-18410|2023|Ordinary election|1054","CO-ALC-18410|2019|Ordinary election|1055","CO-ALC-18410|2015|Ordinary election|1056"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-18410|2023|Ordinary election|1054","CO-ALC-18410|2019|Ordinary election|1055","CO-ALC-18410|2015|Ordinary election|1056"],"shares":[[0.4704924194963037,0.32965793760180434],[0.38928776565192413,0.3732050545663412],[0.46296603148301574,0.3877381938690969]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":51.5758568881168,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,19.9849642901892,32.96579376018043,0,0,0,47.04924194963037],[38.928776565192415,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,61.07122343480758],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,38.77381938690969,0,61.22618061309031]],"volatility_latest":52.95075805036963,"volatility_previous":38.92877656519242,"volatility_mean":45.939767307781025,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-18460","country":"Colombia","region":"Caqueta","name":"Milan","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[34.0726757904672,7.330779054916988,30.745814307458147],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-18460|2023|Ordinary election|1057","CO-ALC-18460|2019|Ordinary election|1058","CO-ALC-18460|2015|Ordinary election|1059"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-18460|2023|Ordinary election|1057","CO-ALC-18460|2019|Ordinary election|1058","CO-ALC-18460|2015|Ordinary election|1059"],"shares":[[0.5757432751297782,0.2350165172251062],[0.536653895274585,0.46334610472541504],[0.6537290715372908,0.34627092846270924]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,14.15762151958471,0,0,85.84237848041528],null,[0,65.37290715372907,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,34.627092846270926]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-18479","country":"Colombia","region":"Caqueta","name":"Morelia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[23.22981366459627,17.20751494449189,24.627519719544253],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-18479|2023|Ordinary election|1060","CO-ALC-18479|2019|Ordinary election|1061","CO-ALC-18479|2015|Ordinary election|1062"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-18479|2023|Ordinary election|1060","CO-ALC-18479|2019|Ordinary election|1061","CO-ALC-18479|2015|Ordinary election|1062"],"shares":[[0.47163561076604554,0.2393374741200828],[0.49402220324508966,0.32194705380017075],[0.6231375985977212,0.3768624014022787]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,17.142857142857142,0,0,0,23.93374741200828,0,0,0,0,58.923395445134574],[32.194705380017076,49.40222032450897,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,18.403074295473953],null],"volatility_latest":64.45406856166889,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-18592","country":"Colombia","region":"Caqueta","name":"Puerto Rico","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.3060921248142634,11.021315284372157,8.43790566854176],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-18592|2023|Ordinary election|1063","CO-ALC-18592|2019|Ordinary election|1064","CO-ALC-18592|2015|Ordinary election|1065"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-18592|2023|Ordinary election|1063","CO-ALC-18592|2019|Ordinary election|1064","CO-ALC-18592|2015|Ordinary election|1065"],"shares":[[0.3959881129271917,0.3629271916790491],[0.36902717446206684,0.25881402161834527],[0.32604932929467767,0.24167027260926005]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":69.33079786472808,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,3.083209509658247,0,0,0,8.590267459138188,12.434992570579494,0,0,0,75.89153046062407],[25.88140216183453,0,4.97019901000101,0,7.748257399737347,10.556621880998081,0,0,0,0.2626527932114355,50.580866754217595],[24.167027260926005,20.748593682388577,21.235395932496754,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,33.84898312418866]],"volatility_latest":40.828865786644215,"volatility_previous":37.01379060488432,"volatility_mean":38.92132819576427,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-18610","country":"Colombia","region":"Caqueta","name":"San Jose Del Fragua","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.797961896322555,22.899454403741235,8.903748020411754],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-18610|2023|Ordinary election|1066","CO-ALC-18610|2019|Ordinary election|1067","CO-ALC-18610|2015|Ordinary election|1068"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-18610|2023|Ordinary election|1066","CO-ALC-18610|2019|Ordinary election|1067","CO-ALC-18610|2015|Ordinary election|1068"],"shares":[[0.5008122876975336,0.422832668734308],[0.493842556508184,0.2648480124707716],[0.4914657751187753,0.40242829491465776]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":37.80505869521461,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[42.283266873430804,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,57.71673312656919],[49.384255650818396,24.130943102104442,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,26.48480124707716],[10.610592996656695,40.24282949146578,0,49.14657751187753,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":31.23193187949203,"volatility_previous":65.25846390123885,"volatility_mean":48.245197890365446,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-18753","country":"Colombia","region":"Caqueta","name":"San Vicente Del Caguan","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.906402976307028,39.17056439039601,6.282120638355423],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-18753|2023|Ordinary election|1069","CO-ALC-18753|2019|Ordinary election|1070","CO-ALC-18753|2015|Ordinary election|1071"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-18753|2023|Ordinary election|1069","CO-ALC-18753|2019|Ordinary election|1070","CO-ALC-18753|2015|Ordinary election|1071"],"shares":[[0.2852457411396123,0.24618171137654202],[0.6029310882444652,0.21122544434050514],[0.39552339734920205,0.3327021909656478]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":26.38388416630719,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,8.938711572351675,0,0,0,24.6181711376542,28.52457411396123,0,0,0,37.9185431760329],[1.6775802931088244,0,0,0,21.122544434050514,9.360773308387902,0,0,7.545993140006236,0,60.29310882444652],[0,0,0,0,39.5523397349202,10.609954016770354,0,0,33.27021909656478,0,16.567487151744658]],"volatility_latest":52.7206835155792,"volatility_previous":45.40320196581069,"volatility_mean":49.061942740694946,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-18756","country":"Colombia","region":"Caqueta","name":"Solano","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.904537056045989,12.858422939068099,6.654392425039454],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-18756|2023|Ordinary election|1072","CO-ALC-18756|2019|Ordinary election|1073","CO-ALC-18756|2015|Ordinary election|1074"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-18756|2023|Ordinary election|1072","CO-ALC-18756|2019|Ordinary election|1073","CO-ALC-18756|2015|Ordinary election|1074"],"shares":[[0.49989735167316773,0.3508519811127078],[0.4388440860215054,0.3102598566308244],[0.5276170436612309,0.4610731194108364]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":32.67155821074016,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,49.98973516731677,0,13.87805378772326,0,0,36.132211044959966],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.17921146953405018,0,0,99.82078853046596],[0,0,0,0,0,1.1309836927932666,46.10731194108364,52.76170436612309,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":63.68857748550599,"volatility_previous":99.82078853046595,"volatility_mean":81.75468300798596,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-18785","country":"Colombia","region":"Caqueta","name":"Solita","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.2703838610255,12.673392181588902,14.486680634540555],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-18785|2023|Ordinary election|1075","CO-ALC-18785|2019|Ordinary election|1076","CO-ALC-18785|2015|Ordinary election|1077"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-18785|2023|Ordinary election|1075","CO-ALC-18785|2019|Ordinary election|1076","CO-ALC-18785|2015|Ordinary election|1077"],"shares":[[0.3894648360885402,0.23676099747828525],[0.3808322824716267,0.2540983606557377],[0.4247231367853936,0.27985633043998803]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":27.935419827269868,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-18860","country":"Colombia","region":"Caqueta","name":"Valparaiso","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.385054488842762,8.993515647025657,30.26126902095894],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-18860|2023|Ordinary election|1078","CO-ALC-18860|2019|Ordinary election|1079","CO-ALC-18860|2015|Ordinary election|1080"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-18860|2023|Ordinary election|1078","CO-ALC-18860|2019|Ordinary election|1079","CO-ALC-18860|2015|Ordinary election|1080"],"shares":[[0.3095485210171251,0.26569797612869744],[0.3146320834508035,0.22469692698054694],[0.5891472868217054,0.286534596612116]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":58.22392855245375,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,8.847950181629475,0,0,0,0.02594706798131811,22.599896211728076,0,0,0,68.52620653866113],[22.356921341979138,0,0,0,17.394981674654638,0,0,0,0,31.46320834508035,28.784888638285874],[58.91472868217054,28.6534596612116,0.11484352569623887,0.05742176284811944,1.0623026126902095,0.1435544071202986,11.053689348262992,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":71.21511136171412,"volatility_previous":76.58077604533065,"volatility_mean":73.89794370352239,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19001","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Popayan","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.5918814372931891,1.6352657860254283,27.86602240672024],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19001|2023|Ordinary election|1081","CO-ALC-19001|2019|Ordinary election|1082","CO-ALC-19001|2015|Ordinary election|1083"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19001|2023|Ordinary election|1081","CO-ALC-19001|2019|Ordinary election|1082","CO-ALC-19001|2015|Ordinary election|1083"],"shares":[[0.28675179816998336,0.28083298379705146],[0.2697347451924779,0.25338208733222367],[0.6254304706479084,0.346770246580706]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":81.83844580572217,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19022","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Almaguer","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.860238729864413,18.21536397182154,26.995662876567806],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19022|2023|Ordinary election|1084","CO-ALC-19022|2019|Ordinary election|1085","CO-ALC-19022|2015|Ordinary election|1086"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19022|2023|Ordinary election|1084","CO-ALC-19022|2019|Ordinary election|1085","CO-ALC-19022|2015|Ordinary election|1086"],"shares":[[0.5561478734499942,0.41754548615135006],[0.5866040478586604,0.40445040814044503],[0.634978314382839,0.365021685617161]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":17.598406414390556,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,40.4450408140445,0,0,0,59.5549591859555],[0,0,0,0,0,0,63.4978314382839,0,36.5021685617161,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":59.5549591859555,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19050","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Argelia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.352375086611744,34.612892776158084,13.173848926757334],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19050|2023|Ordinary election|1087","CO-ALC-19050|2019|Ordinary election|1088","CO-ALC-19050|2015|Ordinary election|1089"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19050|2023|Ordinary election|1087","CO-ALC-19050|2019|Ordinary election|1088","CO-ALC-19050|2015|Ordinary election|1089"],"shares":[[0.5048117638001386,0.43128801293402114],[0.5770975056689343,0.23096857790735342],[0.45125348189415043,0.31951499262657707]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":19.436611112548974,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0.33874817152975595,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,99.66125182847024],[0,23.096857790735342,0.137674117265954,0,0,57.709750566893426,0,0,0,19.05571752510528,0],[0,31.95149926265771,0,0,0,0,0,0,22.92315254792725,45.12534818941504,0]],"volatility_latest":99.66125182847024,"volatility_previous":57.84742468415938,"volatility_mean":78.75433825631481,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19075","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Balboa","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.928665785997353,21.13659964127254,12.397372742200325],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19075|2023|Ordinary election|1090","CO-ALC-19075|2019|Ordinary election|1091","CO-ALC-19075|2015|Ordinary election|1092"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19075|2023|Ordinary election|1090","CO-ALC-19075|2019|Ordinary election|1091","CO-ALC-19075|2015|Ordinary election|1092"],"shares":[[0.44702774108322324,0.4277410832232497],[0.6056829982063627,0.3943170017936373],[0.5144704433497537,0.3904967159277504]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":56.31041680899897,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[39.43170017936373,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,60.56829982063627],[0,39.04967159277504,0,51.44704433497537,0,3.7766830870279144,0,5.726600985221675,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19100","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Bolivar","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[25.91508926971995,34.1155449672424,4.084290280572986],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19100|2023|Ordinary election|1093","CO-ALC-19100|2019|Ordinary election|1094","CO-ALC-19100|2015|Ordinary election|1095"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19100|2023|Ordinary election|1093","CO-ALC-19100|2019|Ordinary election|1094","CO-ALC-19100|2015|Ordinary election|1095"],"shares":[[0.5993312235027168,0.3401803308055174],[0.5283502084574151,0.18719475878499106],[0.5204214514028649,0.47957854859713506]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,59.93312235027169,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,40.066877649728305],[0,18.719475878499107,0,1.5306730196545564,0,0,12.138177486599167,0,0,0,67.61167361524717],[0,0,0,47.95785485971351,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.04214514028649]],"volatility_latest":41.213646471772584,"volatility_previous":46.42718184005895,"volatility_mean":43.82041415591577,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19110","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Buenos Aires","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.31200487507617,8.244462674323216,3.355329381500951],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19110|2023|Ordinary election|1096","CO-ALC-19110|2019|Ordinary election|1097","CO-ALC-19110|2015|Ordinary election|1098"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19110|2023|Ordinary election|1096","CO-ALC-19110|2019|Ordinary election|1097","CO-ALC-19110|2015|Ordinary election|1098"],"shares":[[0.5061954093032703,0.32307536055250863],[0.507895816242822,0.4254511894995898],[0.3662901241471871,0.3327368303321776]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":31.019626672536194,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,15.549461710339225,0,0,84.45053828966077],[0,42.54511894995898,50.7895816242822,0,0,0,0,6.6652994257588185,0,0,0],[0,30.097304552063527,33.27368303321776,36.62901241471871,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":93.33470057424118,"volatility_previous":36.629012414718716,"volatility_mean":64.98185649447996,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19130","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Cajibio","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.175742926205032,1.6799232035106968,9.994353472614339],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19130|2023|Ordinary election|1099","CO-ALC-19130|2019|Ordinary election|1100","CO-ALC-19130|2015|Ordinary election|1101"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19130|2023|Ordinary election|1099","CO-ALC-19130|2019|Ordinary election|1100","CO-ALC-19130|2015|Ordinary election|1101"],"shares":[[0.417816010237452,0.3360585809754017],[0.348944048272079,0.332144816236972],[0.41017988222957164,0.31023634750342827]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":67.95570967981168,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[20.055452865064694,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,79.9445471349353],[33.2144816236972,34.8944048272079,0,0,0,31.459133296763575,0,0,0,0,0.431980252331322],[41.017988222957165,0,7.356618536742761,0,0,7.356618536742761,0,0,7.106558038235057,31.023634750342826,6.13858191497943]],"volatility_latest":79.51256688260398,"volatility_previous":58.99691958722871,"volatility_mean":69.25474323491635,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19137","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Caldono","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.7497200447928307,5.129565085619035,7.062543921293042],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19137|2023|Ordinary election|1102","CO-ALC-19137|2019|Ordinary election|1103","CO-ALC-19137|2015|Ordinary election|1104"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19137|2023|Ordinary election|1102","CO-ALC-19137|2019|Ordinary election|1103","CO-ALC-19137|2015|Ordinary election|1104"],"shares":[[0.41475363941769317,0.39725643896976487],[0.45666010001515384,0.40536444915896347],[0.33169360505973294,0.26106816584680254]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":83.52522027654643,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,39.725643896976486,0,0,0,0,0,0,60.274356103023514],[0,40.53644491589635,8.243673283830883,0,0,0,0,45.66601000151538,0,0,5.553871798757387],[0,33.169360505973295,0,14.836612789880535,0,0,0,26.106816584680253,0,0,25.887210119465916]],"volatility_latest":94.44612820124262,"volatility_previous":35.16995111058906,"volatility_mean":64.80803965591583,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19142","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Caloto","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.277324120603012,24.968653347822453,15.517712412348601],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19142|2023|Ordinary election|1105","CO-ALC-19142|2019|Ordinary election|1106","CO-ALC-19142|2015|Ordinary election|1107"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19142|2023|Ordinary election|1105","CO-ALC-19142|2019|Ordinary election|1106","CO-ALC-19142|2015|Ordinary election|1107"],"shares":[[0.3934516331658291,0.260678391959799],[0.5011284794783917,0.25144194600016717],[0.49521901466168833,0.34004189053820233]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":14.956191410282994,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.573178391959799,10.089510050251256,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,89.33731155778894],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,18.047312547019978,0,0,81.95268745298003],[0,49.521901466168835,0,0,0,0,0,34.004189053820234,0,0,16.473909480010928]],"volatility_latest":18.04731254701997,"volatility_previous":65.4787779729691,"volatility_mean":41.763045259994534,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19212","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Corinto","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.400273808505176,3.8503450780966233,31.651296328519223],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19212|2023|Ordinary election|1108","CO-ALC-19212|2019|Ordinary election|1109","CO-ALC-19212|2015|Ordinary election|1110"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19212|2023|Ordinary election|1108","CO-ALC-19212|2019|Ordinary election|1109","CO-ALC-19212|2015|Ordinary election|1110"],"shares":[[0.4114828441858475,0.34748010610079577],[0.36696331274972754,0.3284598619687613],[0.6020532451713937,0.2855402818862015]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":59.198012793079926,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,1.1123470522803114,0,0,0,0,98.88765294771969],[0,0,0.3814021067925899,4.195423174718489,0,0,0,32.84598619687613,0,0,62.57718852161278],[0,60.205324517139374,0,0,0,11.240647294240473,0,28.55402818862015,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":37.42281147838722,"volatility_previous":71.44597181137985,"volatility_mean":54.43439164488353,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19256","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"El Tambo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.230749836115173,23.255673587638825,53.605555555555554],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19256|2023|Ordinary election|1111","CO-ALC-19256|2019|Ordinary election|1112","CO-ALC-19256|2015|Ordinary election|1113"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19256|2023|Ordinary election|1111","CO-ALC-19256|2019|Ordinary election|1112","CO-ALC-19256|2015|Ordinary election|1113"],"shares":[[0.275326509001059,0.23301901063990724],[0.6040560115886046,0.3714992757122163],[0.7488888888888888,0.21283333333333335]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":25.621462332418467,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,27.532650900105896,0,12.571226867026374,0,0,0,0,0,0,59.89612223286774],[0,60.405601158860456,37.14992757122163,0,1.460647030420087,0,0,0,0,0,0.9838242394978272],[0,74.88888888888889,0,0,0,3.827777777777778,0,0,0,0,21.283333333333335]],"volatility_latest":71.48352486039629,"volatility_previous":38.610574601641716,"volatility_mean":55.047049731019,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19290","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Florencia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.7436787307883037,33.57808528664219,37.95834555588149],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19290|2023|Ordinary election|1114","CO-ALC-19290|2019|Ordinary election|1115","CO-ALC-19290|2015|Ordinary election|1116"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19290|2023|Ordinary election|1114","CO-ALC-19290|2019|Ordinary election|1115","CO-ALC-19290|2015|Ordinary election|1116"],"shares":[[0.5037183936539416,0.4962816063460585],[0.667890426433211,0.33210957356678905],[0.6274567321795248,0.2478732766207099]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":28.42266309973105,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[33.210957356678904,0,0,66.7890426433211,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[24.78732766207099,62.74567321795248,0,0,0,12.466999119976533,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":75.212672337929,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19300","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Guachene","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.917964967872546,17.304991104035956,5.480759037421819],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19300|2023|Ordinary election|1117","CO-ALC-19300|2019|Ordinary election|1118","CO-ALC-19300|2015|Ordinary election|1119"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19300|2023|Ordinary election|1117","CO-ALC-19300|2019|Ordinary election|1118","CO-ALC-19300|2015|Ordinary election|1119"],"shares":[[0.42223395827832055,0.3030543085995951],[0.5019196553984455,0.32886974435808597],[0.49782677833138983,0.44301918795717166]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":35.548238921617525,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,42.22339582783206,0,0,0,26.74940586216002,0,0,0,0,31.027198310007922],[0,50.19196553984455,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,49.80803446015545],[0,49.78267783313898,44.301918795717164,0,0,0,5.9154033711438565,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":26.74940586216002,"volatility_previous":50.21732216686102,"volatility_mean":38.48336401451052,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19318","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Guapi","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[22.388486465878763,5.28740236330863,15.650678387158418],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19318|2023|Ordinary election|1120","CO-ALC-19318|2019|Ordinary election|1121","CO-ALC-19318|2015|Ordinary election|1122"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19318|2023|Ordinary election|1120","CO-ALC-19318|2019|Ordinary election|1121","CO-ALC-19318|2015|Ordinary election|1122"],"shares":[[0.4641631719405261,0.24027830728173846],[0.4393150410574805,0.3864410174243942],[0.3562010319128607,0.19969424804127653]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":17.078097863821572,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0.15249714067861228,0.3145253526496378,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,99.53297750667176],[0.22030843180452633,38.64410174243942,7.690767073903465,0,0,0,0.4105748047266173,0,0,4.57640696975766,48.45784097736831],[0.11465698452130708,0.3153067074335945,35.62010319128607,0,0,0,15.048729218421556,1.6338620294286261,15.698452130708962,0.18154022549206955,31.387349512707814]],"volatility_latest":51.07513652930344,"volatility_previous":59.89980469121513,"volatility_mean":55.48747061025929,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19355","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Inza","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2025,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,1.520506287498975,10.039269250469527],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2025-07-06 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19355|CO-ALC-19355-2025-07-06-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6787","CO-ALC-19355|2023|Ordinary election|1123","CO-ALC-19355|2019|Ordinary election|1124"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19355|CO-ALC-19355-2025-07-06-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6787","CO-ALC-19355|2023|Ordinary election|1123","CO-ALC-19355|2019|Ordinary election|1124","CO-ALC-19355|2015|Ordinary election|1125"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.4073313059916167,0.3921262431166269],[0.3704968413863753,0.27010414888168005]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,40.73313059916167,0,0,59.26686940083833],[11.985658186785043,0,0,0,0,0,27.010414888168004,23.954242786409424,0,0,37.04968413863753]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":38.996073074953046,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19364","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Jambalo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[22.22565687789799,44.60887949260043,12.571767966739259],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19364|2023|Ordinary election|1126","CO-ALC-19364|2019|Ordinary election|1127","CO-ALC-19364|2015|Ordinary election|1128"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19364|2023|Ordinary election|1126","CO-ALC-19364|2019|Ordinary election|1127","CO-ALC-19364|2015|Ordinary election|1128"],"shares":[[0.61112828438949,0.38887171561051004],[0.7230443974630022,0.2769556025369979],[0.48525044545634527,0.3595327657889527]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,38.887171561051005,0,0,0,0,0,61.112828438948995,0,0,0],[0,27.69556025369979,0,0,0,0,0,72.30443974630022,0,0,0],[0,0,0,0,0,15.521678875470204,35.95327657889527,48.52504454563453,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":11.19161130735122,"volatility_previous":51.47495545436548,"volatility_mean":31.333283380858347,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19392","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"La Sierra","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":2,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019],"gaps":[5.211777672807429,9.594039835791396,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. MISSING ordinary-cycle return(s): [2015]; no zero or substitute election inserted.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19392|2023|Ordinary election|1129","CO-ALC-19392|2019|Ordinary election|1130"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19392|2023|Ordinary election|1129","CO-ALC-19392|2019|Ordinary election|1130"],"shares":[[0.5087387812942843,0.45662100456621],[0.37676752318686335,0.2808271248289494],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,50.873878129428434,0.5038576602109904,0,0,0,0,0.26767438198708865,0,0,48.354589828373484],[0,25.148243880188534,0,0,28.082712482894937,3.7098981298464344,3.0713091074958188,0,0,0,39.98783639957428],null],"volatility_latest":34.863919720237185,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":2},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19397","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"La Vega","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.652043868394813,6.8440059896062735,4.232445520581109],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19397|2023|Ordinary election|1131","CO-ALC-19397|2019|Ordinary election|1132","CO-ALC-19397|2015|Ordinary election|1133"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19397|2023|Ordinary election|1131","CO-ALC-19397|2019|Ordinary election|1132","CO-ALC-19397|2015|Ordinary election|1133"],"shares":[[0.4891326021934197,0.4626121635094716],[0.5291993305734167,0.460759270677354],[0.5211622276029055,0.47883777239709446]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":79.6616366501156,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.1296111665004985,0,0,2.8813559322033897,0,0,0,0,0,0,96.98903290129611],[0,0,1.0041398749229278,0,0,0,46.0759270677354,0,0,0,52.91993305734167],[52.116222760290555,47.883777239709445,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":47.08006694265833,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":73.54003347132917,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19418","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Lopez (Micay)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[29.29662836216694,15.412269511770845,8.334403493001155],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19418|2023|Ordinary election|1134","CO-ALC-19418|2019|Ordinary election|1135","CO-ALC-19418|2015|Ordinary election|1136"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19418|2023|Ordinary election|1134","CO-ALC-19418|2019|Ordinary election|1135","CO-ALC-19418|2015|Ordinary election|1136"],"shares":[[0.5368102033084985,0.24384391968682917],[0.5770613475588542,0.42293865244114576],[0.5348658019776551,0.4515217670476435]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,4.937492107589342,0,0,95.06250789241066],[0,42.29386524411458,57.70613475588542,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[53.486580197765505,1.3612430974701426,0,0,0,45.15217670476435,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":100.0,"volatility_previous":98.63875690252985,"volatility_mean":99.31937845126492,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19450","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Mercaderes","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.79440186604465,23.837345174106105,12.874322093845791],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19450|2023|Ordinary election|1137","CO-ALC-19450|2019|Ordinary election|1138","CO-ALC-19450|2015|Ordinary election|1139"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19450|2023|Ordinary election|1137","CO-ALC-19450|2019|Ordinary election|1138","CO-ALC-19450|2015|Ordinary election|1139"],"shares":[[0.46017994001999335,0.29223592135954685],[0.5854171535405469,0.34704370179948585],[0.5200424428200896,0.3912992218816317]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":7.423615593783984,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,29.223592135954682,0,0,0,0,70.77640786404531],[58.54171535405469,0,0,34.70437017994858,0,0,0,0,0,0,6.753914465996728],[0,0,52.00424428200896,8.86583352982787,0,39.12992218816317,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":93.24608553400327,"volatility_previous":91.13416647017213,"volatility_mean":92.19012600208771,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19455","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Miranda","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.39983135408615,36.314438354263515,1.2774162448782889],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19455|2023|Ordinary election|1140","CO-ALC-19455|2019|Ordinary election|1141","CO-ALC-19455|2015|Ordinary election|1142"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19455|2023|Ordinary election|1140","CO-ALC-19455|2019|Ordinary election|1141","CO-ALC-19455|2015|Ordinary election|1142"],"shares":[[0.3273136111306303,0.2233152975897688],[0.6344966349823076,0.2713522514396725],[0.3570338234112638,0.3442596609624809]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":13.690140283907137,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,1.6790397557760355,7.056129882744744,0,0,0.3122181364046347,0,90.95261222507457],[16.325218928255804,35.70338234112638,34.42596609624809,6.973567928014782,0,0,6.571864706354945,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19473","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Morales","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.0431879824744428,6.479973949853473,1.1438892233594231],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19473|2023|Ordinary election|1143","CO-ALC-19473|2019|Ordinary election|1144","CO-ALC-19473|2015|Ordinary election|1145"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19473|2023|Ordinary election|1143","CO-ALC-19473|2019|Ordinary election|1144","CO-ALC-19473|2015|Ordinary election|1145"],"shares":[[0.3779817789832394,0.367549899158495],[0.41387170302832954,0.3490719635297948],[0.5057194461167971,0.4942805538832029]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":86.57853051611674,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[9.625147784964184,4.256206968495723,0,0,0,0,0,37.79817789832394,0,0,48.32046734821614],[41.387170302832956,8.344187561055032,0,0,0,7.98599804623901,0,34.90719635297948,0,0,7.37544773689352],null],"volatility_latest":43.83600115666709,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19513","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Padilla","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.760856977417482,13.785379759723071,36.649099692577956],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19513|2023|Ordinary election|1146","CO-ALC-19513|2019|Ordinary election|1147","CO-ALC-19513|2015|Ordinary election|1148"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19513|2023|Ordinary election|1146","CO-ALC-19513|2019|Ordinary election|1147","CO-ALC-19513|2015|Ordinary election|1148"],"shares":[[0.3442385639837869,0.15662999420961204],[0.45041743025860315,0.31256363266137244],[0.6097935880544576,0.24330259112867808]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":4.714809581873958,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,34.42385639837869,14.360162130862768,7.961783439490445,0,0,0,0,1.1580775911986103,0,42.09612044006948],[0,16.94155976379556,0.8959478721238037,0,0.916310323762981,0.1425371614742415,0,4.276114844227245,0,0.5294237426186112,76.29810629199756],[0,3.227931488801054,24.330259112867807,60.97935880544576,0,0,11.133069828722002,0,0,0,0.32938076416337286]],"volatility_latest":40.06637192401115,"volatility_previous":95.54673987491176,"volatility_mean":67.80655589946146,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19517","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Paez (Belalcazar)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[36.612300373768264,25.726950354609926,15.063963101557746],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19517|2023|Ordinary election|1149","CO-ALC-19517|2019|Ordinary election|1150","CO-ALC-19517|2015|Ordinary election|1151"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19517|2023|Ordinary election|1149","CO-ALC-19517|2019|Ordinary election|1150","CO-ALC-19517|2015|Ordinary election|1151"],"shares":[[0.6213047910295617,0.255181787291879],[0.6286347517730496,0.3713652482269504],[0.5753198155077888,0.4246801844922113]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19532","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Patia (El Bordo)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.753747917823432,6.561253140239394,32.52360645750838],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19532|2023|Ordinary election|1152","CO-ALC-19532|2019|Ordinary election|1153","CO-ALC-19532|2015|Ordinary election|1154"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19532|2023|Ordinary election|1152","CO-ALC-19532|2019|Ordinary election|1153","CO-ALC-19532|2015|Ordinary election|1154"],"shares":[[0.4444752915047196,0.3869378123264853],[0.37549874390424115,0.3098862125018472],[0.5482790130977765,0.22304294852269266]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":56.63507330741642,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,44.44752915047196,0,0,55.552470849528035],[0,0,26.15634697798138,0,0,0,37.549874390424115,0,0,0,36.293778631594506],[0,54.827901309777644,17.514468473956747,0,0,2.116966189460859,22.304294852269265,0,0,3.236369174535486,0]],"volatility_latest":63.706221368405494,"volatility_previous":60.18123667377399,"volatility_mean":61.94372902108974,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19533","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Piamonte","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.13348676639816,35.74479444741057,14.165366614664588],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19533|2023|Ordinary election|1155","CO-ALC-19533|2019|Ordinary election|1156","CO-ALC-19533|2015|Ordinary election|1157"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19533|2023|Ordinary election|1155","CO-ALC-19533|2019|Ordinary election|1156","CO-ALC-19533|2015|Ordinary election|1157"],"shares":[[0.4655926352128884,0.3042577675489068],[0.5269620928990923,0.16951414842498663],[0.40187207488299537,0.2602184087363495]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19548","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Piendamo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[25.08298629971634,7.985250174836288,27.05645720626994],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19548|2023|Ordinary election|1158","CO-ALC-19548|2019|Ordinary election|1159","CO-ALC-19548|2015|Ordinary election|1160"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19548|2023|Ordinary election|1158","CO-ALC-19548|2019|Ordinary election|1159","CO-ALC-19548|2015|Ordinary election|1160"],"shares":[[0.4024986420423683,0.1516687790452049],[0.3573017992243626,0.2774492974759998],[0.5316271327507283,0.26106256068802886]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,6.675116180819603,0,12.710483432916893,0,0,1.5028064457722252,0,0,0,79.11159394049129],[27.744929747599976,0,0,0,0,24.972979846144064,0,0,0,0,47.28209040625595],[53.162713275072825,17.762519073380496,26.106256068802885,0,0,0,0,0,0,2.177833263975586,0.7906783187682064]],"volatility_latest":52.71790959374405,"volatility_previous":71.46439193363182,"volatility_mean":62.091150763687935,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19573","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Puerto Tejada","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.013033175355453,8.676345856408723,11.284940648761008],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19573|2023|Ordinary election|1161","CO-ALC-19573|2019|Ordinary election|1162","CO-ALC-19573|2015|Ordinary election|1163"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19573|2023|Ordinary election|1161","CO-ALC-19573|2019|Ordinary election|1162","CO-ALC-19573|2015|Ordinary election|1163"],"shares":[[0.3877863349131122,0.3276560031595577],[0.374195479718605,0.2874320211545178],[0.37333843881625733,0.26048903232864723]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":63.30391136494005,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0.09479618819537994,2.7391109115401884,28.74320211545178,0,0,37.4195479718605,15.381928852966123,0,3.756922616374794,0.2694207453973956,11.595070598213841],[1.7066900060171764,0,37.33384388162573,0,0,26.048903232864724,6.586072971938078,2.5819156501285487,0.24068705213062744,0.33367977681746075,25.168207428477654]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":26.42184709580818,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19585","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Purace (Coconuco)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.591567023285087,11.805221848470286,19.69528056484578],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19585|2023|Ordinary election|1164","CO-ALC-19585|2019|Ordinary election|1165","CO-ALC-19585|2015|Ordinary election|1166"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19585|2023|Ordinary election|1164","CO-ALC-19585|2019|Ordinary election|1165","CO-ALC-19585|2015|Ordinary election|1166"],"shares":[[0.35179358086847073,0.19587791063561988],[0.35832131987826366,0.2402691013935608],[0.5388331475287997,0.3418803418803419]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":25.66982587501643,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,17.47954688483323,0,0,0,0,14.175582127123977,19.587791063561987,0,0,48.757079924480806],[0,0,23.738587217683804,35.832131987826365,0,0.7848790645522986,15.617491590581452,24.02691013935608,0,0,0],[0,0,0,53.88331475287997,0,0,34.18803418803419,11.928651059085842,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":66.23662680931403,"volatility_previous":36.62172536250634,"volatility_mean":51.429176085910186,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19622","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Rosas","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.021092841720645,1.9431743958197245,0.9365244536940693],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19622|2023|Ordinary election|1167","CO-ALC-19622|2019|Ordinary election|1168","CO-ALC-19622|2015|Ordinary election|1169"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19622|2023|Ordinary election|1167","CO-ALC-19622|2019|Ordinary election|1168","CO-ALC-19622|2015|Ordinary election|1169"],"shares":[[0.3796711509715994,0.24946022255439296],[0.3545068582625735,0.33507511430437625],[0.34668747832119323,0.3373222337842525]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":57.55369765426145,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[24.946022255439296,0,0,0,0,8.819133034379671,0,0,0,0,66.23484471018104],[35.45068582625735,33.507511430437624,19.562377531025472,0,3.6250816459830175,0,0.9634225996080993,0,0,0,6.890920966688439],[33.73222337842525,31.599028789455428,34.66874783211932,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":68.16305677787227,"volatility_previous":15.106370301093849,"volatility_mean":41.63471353948306,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19693","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"San Sebastian","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.9985549132947966,7.576023905783089,12.716981132075475],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19693|2023|Ordinary election|1170","CO-ALC-19693|2019|Ordinary election|1171","CO-ALC-19693|2015|Ordinary election|1172"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19693|2023|Ordinary election|1170","CO-ALC-19693|2019|Ordinary election|1171","CO-ALC-19693|2015|Ordinary election|1172"],"shares":[[0.3610910404624278,0.3311054913294798],[0.5378801195289155,0.46211988047108454],[0.5635849056603773,0.4364150943396226]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":73.28180883540324,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,30.78034682080925,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,69.21965317919076],[0,46.211988047108456,0,0,0,0,53.788011952891544,0,0,0,0],[0,56.35849056603774,0,0,0,0,43.64150943396226,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":69.21965317919076,"volatility_previous":10.146502518929282,"volatility_mean":39.68307784906002,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19698","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Santander De Quilichao","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.38142808491315705,44.08105986727873,3.067125393455825],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19698|2023|Ordinary election|1173","CO-ALC-19698|2019|Ordinary election|1174","CO-ALC-19698|2015|Ordinary election|1175"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19698|2023|Ordinary election|1173","CO-ALC-19698|2019|Ordinary election|1174","CO-ALC-19698|2015|Ordinary election|1175"],"shares":[[0.3108865932568964,0.3070723124077648],[0.6534976095901814,0.2126870109173941],[0.5140424078276359,0.4833711538930776]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":31.20056324761452,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0.2565557952094449,28.66159609490294,0,0,30.70723124077648,0.0681121580202066,0,0,0,40.30650471109094],[2.204885474395262,65.34976095901814,21.26870109173941,0,0,0,0,3.9982874675927027,0,0,7.178365007254477],[0,48.33711538930776,0,0,0,0.25864382792865337,0,0,0,0,51.40424078276359]],"volatility_latest":71.29637810579666,"volatility_previous":44.48451960343776,"volatility_mean":57.89044885461721,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19701","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Santa Rosa","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.5087719298245617,8.865010073875084,11.392405063291136],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19701|2023|Ordinary election|1176","CO-ALC-19701|2019|Ordinary election|1177","CO-ALC-19701|2015|Ordinary election|1178"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19701|2023|Ordinary election|1176","CO-ALC-19701|2019|Ordinary election|1177","CO-ALC-19701|2015|Ordinary election|1178"],"shares":[[0.3502392344497608,0.3151515151515152],[0.4167226326393553,0.3280725319006044],[0.44195298372513564,0.32802893309222425]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":70.47996656806812,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,35.02392344497608,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,64.97607655502392],[0,10.073875083948959,41.67226326393553,32.80725319006044,0,15.446608462055071,0,0,0,0,0],[0.25316455696202533,0,44.19529837251356,32.802893309222426,0,0,0,0,0,0,22.748643761301988]],"volatility_latest":89.92612491605104,"volatility_previous":25.524843426842047,"volatility_mean":57.72548417144654,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19743","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Silvia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.80451017718553,3.3673551394358228,9.813350721330181],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19743|2023|Ordinary election|1179","CO-ALC-19743|2019|Ordinary election|1180","CO-ALC-19743|2015|Ordinary election|1181"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19743|2023|Ordinary election|1179","CO-ALC-19743|2019|Ordinary election|1180","CO-ALC-19743|2015|Ordinary election|1181"],"shares":[[0.45775369746668615,0.30970859569483083],[0.33962870690347985,0.3059551555091216],[0.3619691906430842,0.26383568342978236]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":45.62876139862458,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,8.756772587494508,0,0,91.24322741250548],[0,0,0,0,0,30.59551555091216,10.17439524230491,22.068632966326447,3.1985855501084948,33.962870690347984,0],[2.274023962833157,0,0,0.9536229521558399,0,0,36.19691906430842,23.392289510147528,26.383568342978236,10.79957616757682,0]],"volatility_latest":91.24322741250548,"volatility_previous":53.75881007368333,"volatility_mean":72.5010187430944,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19760","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Sotara (Paispamba)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[31.09177215189873,7.410423452768725,30.814940577249576],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19760|2023|Ordinary election|1182","CO-ALC-19760|2019|Ordinary election|1183","CO-ALC-19760|2015|Ordinary election|1184"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19760|2023|Ordinary election|1182","CO-ALC-19760|2019|Ordinary election|1183","CO-ALC-19760|2015|Ordinary election|1184"],"shares":[[0.5383702531645569,0.22745253164556964],[0.5370521172638436,0.4629478827361564],[0.5133701188455009,0.2052207130730051]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,53.837025316455694,0,0,0,0,22.745253164556964,14.73496835443038,0,0,8.682753164556962],null,[0,19.949066213921903,20.52207130730051,0,0,51.33701188455009,8.191850594227505,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19780","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Suarez","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[26.733126028900678,2.089337175792508,8.313703755022864],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19780|2023|Ordinary election|1185","CO-ALC-19780|2019|Ordinary election|1186","CO-ALC-19780|2015|Ordinary election|1187"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19780|2023|Ordinary election|1185","CO-ALC-19780|2019|Ordinary election|1186","CO-ALC-19780|2015|Ordinary election|1187"],"shares":[[0.6187122736418511,0.35138101335284433],[0.3416014820913956,0.3207081103334706],[0.3204932797561314,0.23735624220590273]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":12.509764272097767,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0.29266508139747577,0,0,0,99.70733491860251],[0,0,0,29.240428159736517,0,0,0,4.5286125977768625,0,0,66.23095924248662],[0,32.04932797561314,23.042815574338366,0,0,0,23.735624220590275,21.172232229458224,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":33.76904075751337,"volatility_previous":95.47138740222314,"volatility_mean":64.62021407986826,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19785","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Sucre","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.6918429003021132,13.722943722943725,0.8909222248976647],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19785|2023|Ordinary election|1188","CO-ALC-19785|2019|Ordinary election|1189","CO-ALC-19785|2015|Ordinary election|1190"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19785|2023|Ordinary election|1188","CO-ALC-19785|2019|Ordinary election|1189","CO-ALC-19785|2015|Ordinary election|1190"],"shares":[[0.4878147029204431,0.470896273917422],[0.5686147186147186,0.43138528138528137],[0.5044546111244883,0.4955453888755117]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":73.89459460222925,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,47.0896273917422,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.9103726082578],[0,56.86147186147186,0,43.13852813852814,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[0,0,0,0,0,50.44546111244883,0,0,0,0,49.55453888755117]],"volatility_latest":52.9103726082578,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":76.4551863041289,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19807","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Timbio","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.64839565240002,3.903291581706963,3.0248791838195856],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19807|2023|Ordinary election|1191","CO-ALC-19807|2019|Ordinary election|1192","CO-ALC-19807|2015|Ordinary election|1193"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19807|2023|Ordinary election|1191","CO-ALC-19807|2019|Ordinary election|1192","CO-ALC-19807|2015|Ordinary election|1193"],"shares":[[0.3922200842477508,0.3057361277237506],[0.3070200990387416,0.26798718322167203],[0.4299862776683969,0.399737485830201]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":66.68743607832971,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[29.99115918664517,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,70.00884081335482],[26.7987183221672,10.055345179143606,10.090300029129041,30.702009903874163,0.14564520827264782,0.41945819982522575,10.20681619574716,0,0,0,11.581706961840954],[39.973748583020104,0,3.400751745122606,12.940755324861286,0,0,0,0.6861165801563153,0,0,42.99862776683969]],"volatility_latest":61.619574715991845,"volatility_previous":45.278067646007955,"volatility_mean":53.4488211809999,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19809","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Timbiqui","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.468979044079692,5.419715055833656,5.386565272496831],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19809|2023|Ordinary election|1194","CO-ALC-19809|2019|Ordinary election|1195","CO-ALC-19809|2015|Ordinary election|1196"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19809|2023|Ordinary election|1194","CO-ALC-19809|2019|Ordinary election|1195","CO-ALC-19809|2015|Ordinary election|1196"],"shares":[[0.37638071642407345,0.26169092598327653],[0.514728532922603,0.4605313823642665],[0.386354034643008,0.3324883819180397]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":54.77020764776203,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,10.426344585526994,1.6516981521626923,0,87.92195726231031],[46.05313823642665,0,0,51.472853292260304,0,0.3561802079322295,0,0,0,2.117828263380824,0],[33.24883819180397,0,28.020701309674692,0,0,0.09505703422053231,0,38.6354034643008,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":100.0,"volatility_previous":66.6561047739755,"volatility_mean":83.32805238698775,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19821","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Toribio","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.586030664395231,3.642235579079575,11.124832767315013],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19821|2023|Ordinary election|1197","CO-ALC-19821|2019|Ordinary election|1198","CO-ALC-19821|2015|Ordinary election|1199"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19821|2023|Ordinary election|1197","CO-ALC-19821|2019|Ordinary election|1198","CO-ALC-19821|2015|Ordinary election|1199"],"shares":[[0.5180579216354344,0.4321976149914821],[0.49430340001794204,0.4578810442271463],[0.5556241638365751,0.4443758361634249]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":63.216138254537434,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,51.805792163543444,0,0,48.19420783645656],[0,0,49.43034000179421,0,0,0,0,45.78810442271463,0,0,4.781555575491163],[0,0,44.43758361634249,0,0,0,0,55.56241638365751,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":49.43034000179421,"volatility_previous":9.774311960942875,"volatility_mean":29.60232598136854,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19824","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Totoro","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.58288770053476,29.710229256371463,40.932060640089844],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19824|2023|Ordinary election|1200","CO-ALC-19824|2019|Ordinary election|1201","CO-ALC-19824|2015|Ordinary election|1202"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19824|2023|Ordinary election|1200","CO-ALC-19824|2019|Ordinary election|1201","CO-ALC-19824|2015|Ordinary election|1202"],"shares":[[0.4227029654837141,0.23687408847836655],[0.6485511462818573,0.35144885371814266],[0.7046603032004493,0.2953396967995508]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,11.764705882352942,0,15.483714146815752,0,0,72.7515799708313],null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,70.46603032004492,0,0,0,29.53396967995508]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-19845","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Villa Rica","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.594415288642441,13.669354838709673,1.8190244467616736],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-19845|2023|Ordinary election|1203","CO-ALC-19845|2019|Ordinary election|1204","CO-ALC-19845|2015|Ordinary election|1205"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-19845|2023|Ordinary election|1203","CO-ALC-19845|2019|Ordinary election|1204","CO-ALC-19845|2015|Ordinary election|1205"],"shares":[[0.3402317061095158,0.3042875532230914],[0.5536290322580645,0.41693548387096774],[0.28386050283860503,0.2656702583709883]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":67.80320965262734,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,1.3169620754530151,0,0,0,0,98.683037924547],[0,55.36290322580645,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,44.63709677419355],[0,28.386050283860502,26.56702583709883,25.605375970339473,0,0,12.524620553817634,0,0,5.874174487313174,1.0427528675703859]],"volatility_latest":55.362903225806456,"volatility_previous":70.57119684856912,"volatility_mean":62.96705003718779,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-20001","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"Valledupar","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[27.40704009941213,1.3377481912950984,21.531728958496682],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-20001|2023|Ordinary election|1206","CO-ALC-20001|2019|Ordinary election|1207","CO-ALC-20001|2015|Ordinary election|1208"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-20001|2023|Ordinary election|1206","CO-ALC-20001|2019|Ordinary election|1207","CO-ALC-20001|2015|Ordinary election|1208"],"shares":[[0.4276991827175835,0.1536287817234622],[0.4194403994175161,0.40606291750456514],[0.497155149882386,0.2818378602974192]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":5.006392935572634,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,41.94403994175161,0,0.8066939417053833,0,0,0,2.017890576242979,12.441347109539329,42.7900284307607],[0,1.7270150183960273,0,28.18378602974192,4.066560780608108,0.6594422887472607,0,1.8181574485480876,1.0233418444279136,0.9817916189174156,61.539904970613264]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":54.39814416418859,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-20011","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"Aguachica","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2024,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,13.926859391681148,1.1507455384680796],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2024-11-24 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-20011|CO-ALC-20011-2024-11-24-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6802","CO-ALC-20011|2023|Ordinary election|1209","CO-ALC-20011|2019|Ordinary election|1210"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-20011|CO-ALC-20011-2024-11-24-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6802","CO-ALC-20011|2023|Ordinary election|1209","CO-ALC-20011|2019|Ordinary election|1210","CO-ALC-20011|2015|Ordinary election|1211"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.484645496221557,0.34537690230474555],[0.32763278242188326,0.3161253270372025]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,1.2915785727742772,0,0.06070628624060623,0,0,98.64771514098511],[0,0,7.385191330057643,0,0,0,0,0,32.76327824218833,0,59.85153042775403]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":40.14846957224597,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-20013","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"Agustin Codazzi","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.303605601287931,0.4784688995215305,10.988370098459637],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-20013|2023|Ordinary election|1212","CO-ALC-20013|2019|Ordinary election|1213","CO-ALC-20013|2015|Ordinary election|1214"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-20013|2023|Ordinary election|1212","CO-ALC-20013|2019|Ordinary election|1213","CO-ALC-20013|2015|Ordinary election|1214"],"shares":[[0.36265605540536433,0.309619999392485],[0.21399109057911236,0.20920640158389706],[0.3833064599128615,0.2734227589282651]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":77.8772947976241,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[36.265605540536434,0,0,0,1.0267002824944564,30.961999939248503,0,0,0.6591537316606422,0,31.086540506059954],[20.920640158389705,0,19.742616729912555,20.237584557003796,3.557168784029038,0,7.295825771324864,0,0.5180663256888303,0.6071605345652532,27.12093713908596],[16.950838793783664,0,27.34227589282651,38.33064599128615,0,0,0,0,0.08919688497032488,0.6381007924800165,16.648941644653334]],"volatility_latest":50.41365609434104,"volatility_previous":25.723660855111074,"volatility_mean":38.06865847472606,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-20032","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"Astrea","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[19.634464751958227,9.455909943714822,8.454258675078869],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-20032|2023|Ordinary election|1215","CO-ALC-20032|2019|Ordinary election|1216","CO-ALC-20032|2015|Ordinary election|1217"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-20032|2023|Ordinary election|1215","CO-ALC-20032|2019|Ordinary election|1216","CO-ALC-20032|2015|Ordinary election|1217"],"shares":[[0.5541340295909487,0.3577893820713664],[0.5141651031894934,0.4196060037523452],[0.529863301787592,0.44532071503680337]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":22.685611491013656,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,35.77893820713664,0,0,0,2.515230635335074,6.29242819843342,0,0,0,55.41340295909487],[51.41651031894934,1.3414634146341464,0,0,0.14071294559099437,5.140712945590995,0,0,0,0,41.96060037523452],[1.608832807570978,0.47318611987381703,0,0.14721345951629863,0,0.25236593059936907,52.986330178759204,0,0,0,44.532071503680335]],"volatility_latest":54.18270557479626,"volatility_previous":55.70501476672131,"volatility_mean":54.94386017075878,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-20045","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"Becerril","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.8965020411430373,21.638088606493167,8.12876830318691],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-20045|2023|Ordinary election|1218","CO-ALC-20045|2019|Ordinary election|1219","CO-ALC-20045|2015|Ordinary election|1220"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-20045|2023|Ordinary election|1218","CO-ALC-20045|2019|Ordinary election|1219","CO-ALC-20045|2015|Ordinary election|1220"],"shares":[[0.46730168894580965,0.45833666853437927],[0.5283314474714945,0.3119505614065628],[0.5344530577088716,0.4531653746770026]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":60.78897681523768,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[31.19505614065628,0,52.83314474714945,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09574375489598747,15.876055357298284],[53.44530577088717,1.2381567614125755,45.31653746770026,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":23.488406391643462,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-20060","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"Bosconia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.7822513620832936,0.5157297576070121,53.97024668884565],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-20060|2023|Ordinary election|1221","CO-ALC-20060|2019|Ordinary election|1222","CO-ALC-20060|2015|Ordinary election|1223"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-20060|2023|Ordinary election|1221","CO-ALC-20060|2019|Ordinary election|1222","CO-ALC-20060|2015|Ordinary election|1223"],"shares":[[0.4234001292824822,0.4055776156616493],[0.2599793708096957,0.2548220732336256],[0.7552570460109221,0.21555457912246564]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":66.89452793291677,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.877273986517684,0,99.1227260134823],[25.48220732336256,0,0,0,0,0,0,25.99793708096957,0,2.470345538937597,46.04951005673027],[0,0,21.555457912246563,0,0,1.7450254221329484,0,0,0,0,76.6995166656205]],"volatility_latest":53.95048994326972,"volatility_previous":53.95048994326973,"volatility_mean":53.95048994326973,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-20175","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"Chimichagua","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.095296156067512,0.2552391187533587,26.826295791813035],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-20175|2023|Ordinary election|1224","CO-ALC-20175|2019|Ordinary election|1225","CO-ALC-20175|2015|Ordinary election|1226"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-20175|2023|Ordinary election|1224","CO-ALC-20175|2019|Ordinary election|1225","CO-ALC-20175|2015|Ordinary election|1226"],"shares":[[0.3563498684463839,0.3053969068857088],[0.3010478237506717,0.2984954325631381],[0.5625492866872177,0.2942863287690874]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":70.9181049577609,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,35.63498684463839,0,0,0,64.36501315536161],[30.104782375067167,0.3358409457281032,29.849543256313808,3.61364857603439,0,20.130306286942503,0,0.15448683503492747,13.003761418592156,0,2.807630306286942],[56.254928668721774,0.11470356297942505,0,29.42863287690874,0,14.201734891390064,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":97.19236969371306,"volatility_previous":51.96513059452895,"volatility_mean":74.578750144121,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-20178","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"Chiriguana","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2025,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,3.1405752717228097,2.7660661811677585],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2025-03-30 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-20178|CO-ALC-20178-2025-03-30-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6796","CO-ALC-20178|2023|Ordinary election|1227","CO-ALC-20178|2019|Ordinary election|1228"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-20178|CO-ALC-20178-2025-03-30-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6796","CO-ALC-20178|2023|Ordinary election|1227","CO-ALC-20178|2019|Ordinary election|1228","CO-ALC-20178|2015|Ordinary election|1229"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.3660001200984807,0.33459436738125264],[0.4605851539542609,0.43292449214258333]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[27.71872935807362,0,36.60001200984807,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,35.681258632078304],[43.29244921425833,0,46.05851539542609,8.841190749968058,0.6132617861249521,0,0,0,0.9007282483710234,0,0.29385460585153955]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":35.38740402622676,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-20228","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"Curumani","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.487789203084837,21.279946012821956,1.5352217919978237],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-20228|2023|Ordinary election|1230","CO-ALC-20228|2019|Ordinary election|1231","CO-ALC-20228|2015|Ordinary election|1232"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-20228|2023|Ordinary election|1230","CO-ALC-20228|2019|Ordinary election|1231","CO-ALC-20228|2015|Ordinary election|1232"],"shares":[[0.4851649528706084,0.37028706083976004],[0.5078731301315937,0.2950736700033742],[0.3235513891719312,0.308199171251953]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":32.84910247551365,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-20238","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"El Copey","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.537459283387619,0.352315674844661,3.4200485605272277],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-20238|2023|Ordinary election|1233","CO-ALC-20238|2019|Ordinary election|1234","CO-ALC-20238|2015|Ordinary election|1235"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-20238|2023|Ordinary election|1233","CO-ALC-20238|2019|Ordinary election|1234","CO-ALC-20238|2015|Ordinary election|1235"],"shares":[[0.4142042810609585,0.35882968822708233],[0.3022227916212927,0.29869963487284606],[0.27617065556711756,0.2419701699618453]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":81.14912435730653,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,1.494881340158213,35.882968822708236,0,9.469520707305724,0,0,0.023266635644485806,0,0,53.12936249418334],[0,30.22227916212927,20.965985523028635,9.858433156107873,0,0,0,0,0,0,38.953302158734225],[0,27.617065556711758,23.614290669441555,24.19701699618453,0,0,0,22.601456815816857,0,0,1.9701699618453001]],"volatility_latest":38.585830978078924,"volatility_previous":39.588345802306435,"volatility_mean":39.087088390192676,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-20250","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"El Paso","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.265480278905194,8.674766883300364,3.8972349227084706],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-20250|2023|Ordinary election|1236","CO-ALC-20250|2019|Ordinary election|1237","CO-ALC-20250|2015|Ordinary election|1238"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-20250|2023|Ordinary election|1236","CO-ALC-20250|2019|Ordinary election|1237","CO-ALC-20250|2015|Ordinary election|1238"],"shares":[[0.47684462483088774,0.3641898220418358],[0.28725628708674766,0.200508618253744],[0.34284055446694245,0.30386820523985775]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":51.24279137697963,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-20295","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"Gamarra","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,78.99967938441807,6.657541065206573],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2023-12-24 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-20295|CO-ALC-20295-2023-12-24-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6806","CO-ALC-20295|2023|Ordinary election|1239","CO-ALC-20295|2019|Ordinary election|1240"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-20295|CO-ALC-20295-2023-12-24-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6806","CO-ALC-20295|2023|Ordinary election|1239","CO-ALC-20295|2019|Ordinary election|1240","CO-ALC-20295|2015|Ordinary election|1241"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.8550817569733888,0.06508496312920807],[0.3904927824788452,0.3239173718267795]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[85.50817569733888,4.039756332157743,0,0,0,3.9435716575825586,0,6.5084963129208075,0,0,0],[32.39173718267795,0,39.04927824788452,0,0,18.641114982578397,0,0,0,0,9.917869586859133]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":63.66469115973949,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-20310","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"Gonzalez","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.3567438148443784,2.54796163069544,34.66334164588528],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-20310|2023|Ordinary election|1242","CO-ALC-20310|2019|Ordinary election|1243","CO-ALC-20310|2015|Ordinary election|1244"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-20310|2023|Ordinary election|1242","CO-ALC-20310|2019|Ordinary election|1243","CO-ALC-20310|2015|Ordinary election|1244"],"shares":[[0.5067837190742219,0.4932162809257781],[0.4904076738609113,0.4649280575539569],[0.6337727110794442,0.2871392946205914]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":74.77615528648106,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[49.040767386091126,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,50.959232613908874],[63.37727110794442,0,0,4.346277164232276,0,0,0,0,0,0,32.2764517278233]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":18.682780886085574,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-20383","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"La Gloria","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[39.2533526640087,24.773151025481667,13.43283582089552],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-20383|2023|Ordinary election|1245","CO-ALC-20383|2019|Ordinary election|1246","CO-ALC-20383|2015|Ordinary election|1247"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-20383|2023|Ordinary election|1245","CO-ALC-20383|2019|Ordinary election|1246","CO-ALC-20383|2015|Ordinary election|1247"],"shares":[[0.6562764286577263,0.2637429020176392],[0.5087632069608453,0.2610316967060286],[0.5557989867177873,0.42147062850883205]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[65.62764286577263,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.2899601304820587,0,0,34.082397003745314],[0,50.87632069608453,19.9502796768179,0.6836544437538844,0,0,0,0,0,0,28.489745183343693],[0,0,42.1470628508832,0,0,0,0,0,2.2730384773380803,0,55.57989867177872]],"volatility_latest":71.51025481665631,"volatility_previous":51.559975139838414,"volatility_mean":61.535114978247364,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-20400","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"La Jagua De Ibirico","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[37.867220718979524,4.466810448118856,6.339791031780585],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-20400|2023|Ordinary election|1248","CO-ALC-20400|2019|Ordinary election|1249","CO-ALC-20400|2015|Ordinary election|1250"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-20400|2023|Ordinary election|1248","CO-ALC-20400|2019|Ordinary election|1249","CO-ALC-20400|2015|Ordinary election|1250"],"shares":[[0.6699362195593352,0.29126401236953997],[0.4975317517373592,0.4528636472561706],[0.5119177187636047,0.44851980844579886]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0.023963575365444523,4.936496525281572,0,0,0,0,95.03953989935297],[0,0.07074444928167174,0,0.032651284283848496,0.021767522855899,44.851980844579884,0,0,0,3.831084022638224,51.19177187636047]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":43.84996407550206,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-20443","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"Manaure Balcon Del Cesar (Mana","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.091954022988507,6.134663341645883,2.8555219364599083],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-20443|2023|Ordinary election|1251","CO-ALC-20443|2019|Ordinary election|1252","CO-ALC-20443|2015|Ordinary election|1253"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-20443|2023|Ordinary election|1251","CO-ALC-20443|2019|Ordinary election|1252","CO-ALC-20443|2015|Ordinary election|1253"],"shares":[[0.45693387072697417,0.29601433049708914],[0.4334164588528678,0.372069825436409],[0.5139939485627836,0.48543872919818454]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":41.0943819503357,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0.059710404537990744,0,0,0.19405881474846992,0,0,99.74623078071355],[0,0,19.45137157107232,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,80.54862842892769],[0,0.056732223903177004,48.543872919818455,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,51.39939485627836]],"volatility_latest":19.45137157107232,"volatility_previous":29.14923357264932,"volatility_mean":24.30030257186082,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-20517","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"Pailitas","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.1358346522670146,30.439814814814817,0.3606557377049171],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-20517|2023|Ordinary election|1254","CO-ALC-20517|2019|Ordinary election|1255","CO-ALC-20517|2015|Ordinary election|1256"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-20517|2023|Ordinary election|1254","CO-ALC-20517|2019|Ordinary election|1255","CO-ALC-20517|2015|Ordinary election|1256"],"shares":[[0.4696955590727121,0.45833721255004195],[0.6162229938271605,0.31182484567901236],[0.4951912568306011,0.49158469945355193]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":50.75244595212427,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0.05787037037037037,31.182484567901234,0,0,0.04822530864197531,6.732253086419753,0,0,0,0,61.97916666666667],[0,49.51912568306011,0,0.04371584699453552,0,1.2240437158469946,0,49.15846994535519,0,0,0.0546448087431694]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":67.53882690750861,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-20550","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"Pelaya","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.7140241669718037,13.371861299322436,33.83999057381878],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-20550|2023|Ordinary election|1257","CO-ALC-20550|2019|Ordinary election|1258","CO-ALC-20550|2015|Ordinary election|1259"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-20550|2023|Ordinary election|1257","CO-ALC-20550|2019|Ordinary election|1258","CO-ALC-20550|2015|Ordinary election|1259"],"shares":[[0.4570670084218235,0.44992676675210547],[0.40314866480669587,0.2694300518134715],[0.5752327088488276,0.2368328031106398]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":60.88014026319154,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,45.70670084218235,0,0,0.03661662394727206,0,0,0,0,0,54.25668253387038],[0,11.229573535273017,0,21.074133120765246,0.17935432443204463,0,0,0,0,0,67.51693901952969],[0,17.897961588311535,57.52327088488276,0,0.7658772239896312,23.68328031106398,0,0,0,0,0.12960999175209142]],"volatility_latest":34.477127306909324,"volatility_previous":88.46146214854285,"volatility_mean":61.46929472772609,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-20570","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"Pueblo Bello","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.4123230122918926,0.3145955791042354,1.58038147138965],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-20570|2023|Ordinary election|1260","CO-ALC-20570|2019|Ordinary election|1261","CO-ALC-20570|2015|Ordinary election|1262"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-20570|2023|Ordinary election|1260","CO-ALC-20570|2019|Ordinary election|1261","CO-ALC-20570|2015|Ordinary election|1262"],"shares":[[0.4479539442974949,0.443830714174576],[0.49027237354085607,0.4871264177498137],[0.37536784741144413,0.35956403269754766]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":97.50094685877315,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0.023339038431616617,10.798195114361288,0,0,0,0,89.1784658472071],null,[0,0,37.536784741144416,0,0,26.506811989100818,35.956403269754766,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-20614","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"Rio De Oro","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.947757346623135,13.749888103124164,1.749974856683096],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-20614|2023|Ordinary election|1263","CO-ALC-20614|2019|Ordinary election|1264","CO-ALC-20614|2015|Ordinary election|1265"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-20614|2023|Ordinary election|1263","CO-ALC-20614|2019|Ordinary election|1264","CO-ALC-20614|2015|Ordinary election|1265"],"shares":[[0.567795153806496,0.40831758034026466],[0.5247515889356369,0.3872527079043953],[0.4361862616916424,0.4186865131248114]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":30.6569083771028,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,2.1481354184567794,0,0,0,0,97.85186458154323],[52.475158893563695,0,0,38.72527079043953,0,0,0,8.799570315996778,0,0,0],[43.61862616916424,0,0,0.4626370310771397,14.050085487277482,0,0,0,0,0,41.86865131248114]],"volatility_latest":100.0,"volatility_previous":55.918736799758626,"volatility_mean":77.95936839987931,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-20621","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"La Paz","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.111304814268472,5.823321554770313,1.9981606889056138],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-20621|2023|Ordinary election|1266","CO-ALC-20621|2019|Ordinary election|1267","CO-ALC-20621|2015|Ordinary election|1268"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-20621|2023|Ordinary election|1266","CO-ALC-20621|2019|Ordinary election|1267","CO-ALC-20621|2015|Ordinary election|1268"],"shares":[[0.5392248893656967,0.43811184122301194],[0.37554770318021197,0.31731448763250886],[0.5049745004598278,0.4849928935707717]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":59.9320228805863,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,43.81118412230119,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,56.1888158776988],[24.49469964664311,0,37.5547703180212,31.731448763250885,6.219081272084805,0,0,0,0,0,0],[50.49745004598278,48.49928935707717,0.5768748432405317,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.4263857536995235,0]],"volatility_latest":62.445229681978795,"volatility_previous":74.92842551011636,"volatility_mean":68.68682759604758,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-20710","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"San Alberto","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.193482688391043,4.950008195377809,1.612204212533591],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-20710|2023|Ordinary election|1269","CO-ALC-20710|2019|Ordinary election|1270","CO-ALC-20710|2015|Ordinary election|1271"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-20710|2023|Ordinary election|1269","CO-ALC-20710|2019|Ordinary election|1270","CO-ALC-20710|2015|Ordinary election|1271"],"shares":[[0.33759674134419554,0.2256619144602851],[0.3500245861334208,0.3005245041796427],[0.26280662217214185,0.2466845800468059]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":58.188437535493364,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,12.55397148676171,21.784114052953157,0.26883910386965376,0,0,0,0,0,65.39307535641548],[23.061793148664155,0.7785608916571054,0,0,8.424848385510572,2.4668087198819864,0,0,0,0,65.26798885428619],[19.398457137904135,16.607436942012654,24.66845800468059,26.280662217214182,2.7130103146398543,1.3521712750281702,8.979804108520412,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":34.46317204184416,"volatility_previous":75.75780038077073,"volatility_mean":55.110486211307446,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-20750","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"San Diego","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.165480427046262,15.895759207616123,14.537027283261349],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-20750|2023|Ordinary election|1272","CO-ALC-20750|2019|Ordinary election|1273","CO-ALC-20750|2015|Ordinary election|1274"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-20750|2023|Ordinary election|1272","CO-ALC-20750|2019|Ordinary election|1273","CO-ALC-20750|2015|Ordinary election|1274"],"shares":[[0.5104982206405694,0.3988434163701068],[0.5001442446389076,0.3411866525627464],[0.46486885073211837,0.31949857789950487]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":35.391406265806346,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,8.09608540925267,0,0,0.10676156583629894,0,0,0,0,91.79715302491104],[0.34618713337820944,12.703144533128185,0,0,0,0,0,2.7791133762861815,0.03846523704202327,0,84.1330897201654],[0,0,0,46.48688507321184,0,0,31.94985778995049,0,0,0,21.56325713683767]],"volatility_latest":15.866910279834604,"volatility_previous":78.43674286316232,"volatility_mean":47.15182657149846,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-20770","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"San Martin","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.196330012185513,29.737702304073984,11.144519883608147],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-20770|2023|Ordinary election|1275","CO-ALC-20770|2019|Ordinary election|1276","CO-ALC-20770|2015|Ordinary election|1277"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-20770|2023|Ordinary election|1275","CO-ALC-20770|2019|Ordinary election|1276","CO-ALC-20770|2015|Ordinary election|1277"],"shares":[[0.4473514443409075,0.3353881442190524],[0.6016104600175397,0.30423343697679983],[0.3512124151309408,0.23976721629485936]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":16.23219656552841,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,7.326795822371044,2.088814478195009,0,90.58438969943396],[35.121241513094084,23.976721629485937,20.7274490785645,1.8331716779825413,0,0,2.0659553831231814,0,0,0,16.27546071774976]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":83.72453928225025,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-20787","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"Tamalameque","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[27.97948441085167,12.603031108747672,18.084445824278173],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-20787|2023|Ordinary election|1278","CO-ALC-20787|2019|Ordinary election|1279","CO-ALC-20787|2015|Ordinary election|1280"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-20787|2023|Ordinary election|1278","CO-ALC-20787|2019|Ordinary election|1279","CO-ALC-20787|2015|Ordinary election|1280"],"shares":[[0.5250371170198407,0.24524227291132406],[0.5620845519808562,0.43605424089337946],[0.4152437131325675,0.23439925488978577]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,3.3607774328519366,0,0,0,96.63922256714807],null,[14.762496119217634,23.439925488978577,41.52437131325675,3.5392735175411363,0.4346476249611922,0,8.599813722446445,0.01552312946289972,0,0,7.683949084135362]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-23001","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Monteria","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.579097869200261,9.454381412134573,21.864065018731644],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-23001|2023|Ordinary election|1281","CO-ALC-23001|2019|Ordinary election|1282","CO-ALC-23001|2015|Ordinary election|1283"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-23001|2023|Ordinary election|1281","CO-ALC-23001|2019|Ordinary election|1282","CO-ALC-23001|2015|Ordinary election|1283"],"shares":[[0.5334240383728439,0.40763305968084124],[0.5346615695138172,0.44011775539247144],[0.469442431799417,0.2508017816121006]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":37.14910176483153,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,0.2841569699844667,0,0.6324934192780274,0,99.0833496107375],[0,19.863402250043528,0,0,25.080178161210057,0.3633994417016305,0,5.319561224661736,0,0,49.37345892238305]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":50.62654107761695,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-23068","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Ayapel","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.257845461485921,19.51361258885064,11.680870528191058],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-23068|2023|Ordinary election|1284","CO-ALC-23068|2019|Ordinary election|1285","CO-ALC-23068|2015|Ordinary election|1286"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-23068|2023|Ordinary election|1284","CO-ALC-23068|2019|Ordinary election|1285","CO-ALC-23068|2015|Ordinary election|1286"],"shares":[[0.5449431430063889,0.4523646883915297],[0.5403907192990299,0.34525459341052345],[0.5300207039337475,0.4132119986518369]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":37.11560946817075,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,45.23646883915297,0,0,0,0.1607264837063527,54.49431430063889,0,0,0,0.10849037650178808],[34.52545934105235,54.03907192990299,9.62939782735035,0,1.6898386159417051,0,0,0,0,0,0.11623228575260405],[0,0,53.002070393374744,0.4140786749482402,0,0,0,0,5.262651066493332,41.32119986518369,0]],"volatility_latest":54.65504078434524,"volatility_previous":90.37060217264964,"volatility_mean":72.51282147849744,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-23079","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Buenavista","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.020199063231857,32.414949688548155,22.28547509418167],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-23079|2023|Ordinary election|1287","CO-ALC-23079|2019|Ordinary election|1288","CO-ALC-23079|2015|Ordinary election|1289"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-23079|2023|Ordinary election|1287","CO-ALC-23079|2019|Ordinary election|1288","CO-ALC-23079|2015|Ordinary election|1289"],"shares":[[0.5665251756440282,0.40632318501170955],[0.5430442421338444,0.2188947452483629],[0.6018417748011721,0.37898702385935534]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2.539519906323185,0,0,97.46048009367682],[0,21.889474524836288,54.30442421338444,0,1.5333013895543843,1.3655965500718734,0,6.117233668743013,0,0,14.789969653409997],[0.4102134784428631,0.7534533277521975,0.7534533277521975,0,37.898702385935536,0,0,0,0,0,60.18417748011721]],"volatility_latest":82.67051044026682,"volatility_previous":82.16982230153123,"volatility_mean":82.42016637089903,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-23090","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Canalete","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.4570671653420604,17.881386209360485,7.846853677028051],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-23090|2023|Ordinary election|1290","CO-ALC-23090|2019|Ordinary election|1291","CO-ALC-23090|2015|Ordinary election|1292"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-23090|2023|Ordinary election|1290","CO-ALC-23090|2019|Ordinary election|1291","CO-ALC-23090|2015|Ordinary election|1292"],"shares":[[0.507168458781362,0.4925977871279414],[0.5894069310468024,0.4105930689531976],[0.5392342683851402,0.46076573161485973]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":64.88329235141906,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,49.25977871279414,50.7168458781362,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02337540906965872],[0,0,58.94069310468024,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,41.05930689531976],[0,0,53.923426838514025,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,46.076573161485975]],"volatility_latest":49.259778712794144,"volatility_previous":5.017266266166217,"volatility_mean":27.13852248948018,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-23162","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Cerete","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.488230427916072,21.854773661741852,1.0759784804303933],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-23162|2023|Ordinary election|1293","CO-ALC-23162|2019|Ordinary election|1294","CO-ALC-23162|2015|Ordinary election|1295"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-23162|2023|Ordinary election|1293","CO-ALC-23162|2019|Ordinary election|1294","CO-ALC-23162|2015|Ordinary election|1295"],"shares":[[0.4411145371136347,0.296232232834474],[0.596112608447601,0.3775648718301824],[0.3462530749385012,0.3354932901341973]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":23.215158983423812,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0.050763330074452884,0,0,29.623223283447395,0,0,0,70.32601338647815],[0,0,0,0,0,1.7292597037241053,0,0,0,0,98.2707402962759],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,34.62530749385012,0,0,65.37469250614987]],"volatility_latest":29.67398661352185,"volatility_previous":34.62530749385013,"volatility_mean":32.14964705368599,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-23168","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Chima","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[23.86440026889465,17.18797143719199,5.6027340513670225],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-23168|2023|Ordinary election|1296","CO-ALC-23168|2019|Ordinary election|1297","CO-ALC-23168|2015|Ordinary election|1298"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-23168|2023|Ordinary election|1296","CO-ALC-23168|2019|Ordinary election|1297","CO-ALC-23168|2015|Ordinary election|1298"],"shares":[[0.5997311053490829,0.3610871026601364],[0.5456099768681484,0.37373026249622854],[0.4212924606462303,0.3652651201325601]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,36.10871026601364,0,0,0,63.89128973398636],[8.065976063562305,0,0,0,37.37302624962285,0,0,0,0,54.560997686814844,0],[42.12924606462303,20.950704225352112,36.52651201325601,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.39353769676884837]],"volatility_latest":100.0,"volatility_previous":91.9340239364377,"volatility_mean":95.96701196821886,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-23182","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Chinu","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[95.76664347019253,23.72538769820526,4.238284119288963],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-23182|2023|Ordinary election|1299","CO-ALC-23182|2019|Ordinary election|1300","CO-ALC-23182|2015|Ordinary election|1301"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-23182|2023|Ordinary election|1299","CO-ALC-23182|2019|Ordinary election|1300","CO-ALC-23182|2015|Ordinary election|1301"],"shares":[[0.9748318255625145,0.017165390860589193],[0.5902073531974211,0.35295347621536854],[0.506500661084178,0.4641178198912884]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.4755277197865924,0,99.5244722802134],[0,0,35.295347621536855,3.4814427600627287,0.7597142359296044,0,0,0,0,59.020735319742116,1.4427600627286983],[0,46.41178198912884,0,50.6500661084178,0,1.149551931834876,0.7161745262230057,0,0.8043190832966064,0,0.2681063610988688]],"volatility_latest":98.5572399372713,"volatility_previous":96.25045087883841,"volatility_mean":97.40384540805485,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-23189","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Cienaga De Oro","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[25.066057061425646,9.803743412683986,8.553623479746712],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-23189|2023|Ordinary election|1302","CO-ALC-23189|2019|Ordinary election|1303","CO-ALC-23189|2015|Ordinary election|1304"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-23189|2023|Ordinary election|1302","CO-ALC-23189|2019|Ordinary election|1303","CO-ALC-23189|2015|Ordinary election|1304"],"shares":[[0.6180268978416411,0.3673663272273847],[0.49182264219516625,0.3937852080683264],[0.5158642409622408,0.4303280061647737]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":5.819401956823733,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[5.169907323278212,0,49.182264219516625,0,0,0.9600823793082561,0,0,0.25440668726149374,39.37852080683264,5.054818583802774],[0,0,43.03280061647737,51.58642409622408,0.7236908231983114,1.0721345528863873,0.42550340067678494,2.5630716654940193,0.5963748450430529,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":55.752710316952886,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-23300","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Cotorra (Bongo)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[25.043150792405463,1.4099429502852487,11.606399704059925],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-23300|2023|Ordinary election|1305","CO-ALC-23300|2019|Ordinary election|1306","CO-ALC-23300|2015|Ordinary election|1307"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-23300|2023|Ordinary election|1305","CO-ALC-23300|2019|Ordinary election|1306","CO-ALC-23300|2015|Ordinary election|1307"],"shares":[[0.6238820021967676,0.373450494272713],[0.506519967400163,0.49242053789731055],[0.5580319985202996,0.4419680014797004]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":16.95243334532579,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[37.3450494272713,62.38820021967676,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.26675035305193784],[0,49.24205378973105,0,0,0,0,0.10594947025264874,0,0,0,50.6519967400163],[0,44.19680014797004,55.80319985202996,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":50.49119585721701,"volatility_previous":55.80319985202996,"volatility_mean":53.147197854623485,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-23350","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"La Apartada (Frontera)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.222818351034704,16.542923433874712,27.700598802395213],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-23350|2023|Ordinary election|1308","CO-ALC-23350|2019|Ordinary election|1309","CO-ALC-23350|2015|Ordinary election|1310"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-23350|2023|Ordinary election|1308","CO-ALC-23350|2019|Ordinary election|1309","CO-ALC-23350|2015|Ordinary election|1310"],"shares":[[0.4016204970984342,0.3493923135880872],[0.5787703016241299,0.4133410672853828],[0.5996407185628743,0.3226347305389221]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":45.666860394886214,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[10.642724187014124,0,0,0,0,0,34.93923135880872,0,0,0,54.418044454177156],[0,57.87703016241299,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,42.12296983758701],[0,32.26347305389221,7.772455089820359,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,59.964071856287426]],"volatility_latest":57.87703016241299,"volatility_previous":25.61355710852078,"volatility_mean":41.745293635466886,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-23417","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Lorica","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[30.391217627565844,4.0881699968284195,20.704565911858666],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-23417|2023|Ordinary election|1311","CO-ALC-23417|2019|Ordinary election|1312","CO-ALC-23417|2015|Ordinary election|1313"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-23417|2023|Ordinary election|1311","CO-ALC-23417|2019|Ordinary election|1312","CO-ALC-23417|2015|Ordinary election|1313"],"shares":[[0.6336751841439857,0.32976300786832724],[0.5068664763717095,0.4659847764034253],[0.5512451684639686,0.344199509345382]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,32.976300786832724,0,0,0.8465126505740267,0,0,0,0,66.17718656259325],[0,50.68664763717095,46.59847764034253,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2.714874722486521],[0,0,55.124516846396865,0,3.849344323055472,0.22238302829206305,0,34.4199509345382,0.05294834006953882,0,6.330856527647859]],"volatility_latest":64.30882449068075,"volatility_previous":50.68664763717095,"volatility_mean":57.49773606392585,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-23419","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Los Cordobas","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[38.07754033279837,16.319311663479922,3.463155565390572],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-23419|2023|Ordinary election|1314","CO-ALC-23419|2019|Ordinary election|1315","CO-ALC-23419|2015|Ordinary election|1316"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-23419|2023|Ordinary election|1314","CO-ALC-23419|2019|Ordinary election|1315","CO-ALC-23419|2015|Ordinary election|1316"],"shares":[[0.6901765351803362,0.3094011318523524],[0.5802103250478011,0.41701720841300194],[0.5014383713210887,0.46680681566718296]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,30.94011318523524,0,0,0,69.05988681476475],[0,0,58.021032504780116,0,41.701720841300194,0,0,0,0,0,0.27724665391969405],[0,46.6806815667183,0.3761894224385926,0.6527992918787342,0,0,2.113299402522682,50.14383713210887,0,0,0.033193184332817]],"volatility_latest":99.72275334608031,"volatility_previous":99.59061739322858,"volatility_mean":99.65668536965444,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-23464","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Momil","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[28.64302951550028,9.151182064032106,0.25701858442072023],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-23464|2023|Ordinary election|1317","CO-ALC-23464|2019|Ordinary election|1318","CO-ALC-23464|2015|Ordinary election|1319"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-23464|2023|Ordinary election|1317","CO-ALC-23464|2019|Ordinary election|1318","CO-ALC-23464|2015|Ordinary election|1319"],"shares":[[0.5946723593837016,0.3082420642286987],[0.5379917997033935,0.44647997906307246],[0.4973309608540925,0.4947607750098853]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0.21562906524064118,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,7.035455726749582,0,0.1299424540560609,0,59.46723593837015,0,0,33.3673658808242],[44.647997906307246,0,0,0,0,0,0.5234231876472127,0,0,0,54.828578906045536],[0,0,49.73309608540925,49.47607750098853,0,0,0,0,0.7908264136022143,0,0]],"volatility_latest":66.63263411917579,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":83.3163170595879,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-23466","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Montelibano","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.041978119895056,0.4834980029430298,16.00879120879121],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-23466|2023|Ordinary election|1320","CO-ALC-23466|2019|Ordinary election|1321","CO-ALC-23466|2015|Ordinary election|1322"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-23466|2023|Ordinary election|1320","CO-ALC-23466|2019|Ordinary election|1321","CO-ALC-23466|2015|Ordinary election|1322"],"shares":[[0.4799514875501213,0.45953170635117074],[0.43104898044986334,0.42621400042043306],[0.44272527472527473,0.2826373626373626]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":85.14442303150469,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-23500","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Moñitos","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.6805251641137886,6.9658550641118,13.818722139673106],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-23500|2023|Ordinary election|1323","CO-ALC-23500|2019|Ordinary election|1324","CO-ALC-23500|2015|Ordinary election|1325"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-23500|2023|Ordinary election|1323","CO-ALC-23500|2019|Ordinary election|1324","CO-ALC-23500|2015|Ordinary election|1325"],"shares":[[0.49702163870654026,0.47021638706540236],[0.46326177784180955,0.3936032272006916],[0.566669273480879,0.42848205208414797]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":74.60028084165438,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-23555","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Planeta Rica","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.3286429441212277,16.138842588531155,19.590223913361626],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-23555|2023|Ordinary election|1326","CO-ALC-23555|2019|Ordinary election|1327","CO-ALC-23555|2015|Ordinary election|1328"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-23555|2023|Ordinary election|1326","CO-ALC-23555|2019|Ordinary election|1327","CO-ALC-23555|2015|Ordinary election|1328"],"shares":[[0.4367473954809904,0.4234609660397781],[0.5662485013305261,0.4048600754452145],[0.5391775208546759,0.3432752817210596]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":62.010695328158775,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05411987552428629,0,0,99.94588012447572],[0,0,0,0,0,0.32751410942480336,0,0,0.26610521390765274,0,99.40638067666752],[53.91775208546758,0,34.32752817210596,0,0.014634860237084735,7.902824528025757,0,3.1113712864042147,0,0,0.7258890677594029]],"volatility_latest":0.5936193233324697,"volatility_previous":98.94659682281579,"volatility_mean":49.770108073074134,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-23570","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Pueblo Nuevo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.4524669073405505,3.197674418604649,35.14146798664402],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-23570|2023|Ordinary election|1329","CO-ALC-23570|2019|Ordinary election|1330","CO-ALC-23570|2015|Ordinary election|1331"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-23570|2023|Ordinary election|1329","CO-ALC-23570|2019|Ordinary election|1330","CO-ALC-23570|2015|Ordinary election|1331"],"shares":[[0.4916004813477738,0.48707581227436825],[0.5140591966173361,0.48208245243128967],[0.6757073399332201,0.3242926600667799]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":76.27535365674937,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.3858350951374207,0,48.208245243128964,51.40591966173361],null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-23574","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Puerto Escondido","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[24.885007666155587,5.69828974614618,9.876444159178433],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-23574|2023|Ordinary election|1332","CO-ALC-23574|2019|Ordinary election|1333","CO-ALC-23574|2015|Ordinary election|1334"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-23574|2023|Ordinary election|1332","CO-ALC-23574|2019|Ordinary election|1333","CO-ALC-23574|2015|Ordinary election|1334"],"shares":[[0.6094260382641157,0.36057596160255984],[0.37809647979139505,0.32111358232993326],[0.44608472400513477,0.34732028241335045]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":11.859320302724752,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,60.94260382641157,0,0,0,0,1.186587560829278,0,0,37.870808612759156],[0,29.71086739780658,37.809647979139505,0,32.111358232993325,0,0.05368509855050234,0,0,0,0.31444129151008515],[0,34.732028241335044,19.02278562259307,0,1.37997432605905,0.25673940949935814,0,0,0,0,44.60847240051348]],"volatility_latest":61.87591072935041,"volatility_previous":49.571931362031215,"volatility_mean":55.723921045690815,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-23580","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Puerto Libertador","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.138625485414977,12.986211154558553,16.57442298634009],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-23580|2023|Ordinary election|1335","CO-ALC-23580|2019|Ordinary election|1336","CO-ALC-23580|2015|Ordinary election|1337"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-23580|2023|Ordinary election|1335","CO-ALC-23580|2019|Ordinary election|1336","CO-ALC-23580|2015|Ordinary election|1337"],"shares":[[0.4328546915921611,0.38146843673801134],[0.47926528092200044,0.3494031693764149],[0.5582901554404145,0.3925459255770136]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":56.817595318747195,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0.20771245371624672,38.146843673801136,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,61.645443872482616],[0,34.94031693764149,0,47.926528092200044,0,0,0.06688619057419222,0,0,0,17.066268779584277],[0,0,39.254592557701365,55.829015544041454,4.298162976919453,0.365049458313707,0.15897315120113048,0,0,0,0.09420631182289213]],"volatility_latest":82.72601876669948,"volatility_previous":51.91237940540287,"volatility_mean":67.31919908605119,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-23586","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Purisima","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[21.29737478720545,1.8456061457747808,2.0452885317750216],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-23586|2023|Ordinary election|1338","CO-ALC-23586|2019|Ordinary election|1339","CO-ALC-23586|2015|Ordinary election|1340"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-23586|2023|Ordinary election|1338","CO-ALC-23586|2019|Ordinary election|1339","CO-ALC-23586|2015|Ordinary election|1340"],"shares":[[0.5310456052325061,0.31807185736045157],[0.5013115982761851,0.4828555368184373],[0.5049566941458834,0.48450380882813315]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":32.31682215383398,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,31.807185736045156,0,0,0,14.622345667950901,0,0,0,53.57046859600394],[0,0,50.13115982761851,0,0,0,0,0,0,48.28555368184373,1.5832864905377553],[50.495669414588335,0,48.45038088281331,0,0,0,0.9182928101847021,0,0,0.13565689241364917,0]],"volatility_latest":66.60952777341708,"volatility_previous":51.41396222477304,"volatility_mean":59.01174499909506,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-23660","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Sahagun","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.57670631382379,16.419614348655927,9.0093836446148],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-23660|2023|Ordinary election|1341","CO-ALC-23660|2019|Ordinary election|1342","CO-ALC-23660|2015|Ordinary election|1343"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-23660|2023|Ordinary election|1341","CO-ALC-23660|2019|Ordinary election|1342","CO-ALC-23660|2015|Ordinary election|1343"],"shares":[[0.5302568933900843,0.3244898302518464],[0.566650612725424,0.40245446923886485],[0.5395686054710807,0.44947476902493266]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":9.13576771323733,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,32.44898302518464,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,67.55101697481535],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0.26043060237955085,0,0.321078824851501,0,99.41849057276895],[0,0,53.956860547108064,0,1.0956625503986692,0,0,0,0,0,44.947476902493264]],"volatility_latest":32.44898302518464,"volatility_previous":55.052523097506736,"volatility_mean":43.75075306134569,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-23670","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"San Andres De Sotavento","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.7379923346652504,10.397724623490465,6.4358084003234595],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-23670|2023|Ordinary election|1344","CO-ALC-23670|2019|Ordinary election|1345","CO-ALC-23670|2015|Ordinary election|1346"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-23670|2023|Ordinary election|1344","CO-ALC-23670|2019|Ordinary election|1345","CO-ALC-23670|2015|Ordinary election|1346"],"shares":[[0.5028948870586316,0.4955149637119791],[0.3937613652259057,0.28978411899100104],[0.5290396232697522,0.46468153926651756]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":78.97153186060683,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,49.55149637119791,0,0,0,50.44850362880209],[0,26.180817829999533,0,0,0,0.31706066116473164,0,0,0,39.37613652259057,34.12598498624516],[0,46.46815392665176,0.4281025543452409,0,0,0.1997811920277791,0,0,0,52.90396232697522,0]],"volatility_latest":65.87401501375484,"volatility_previous":34.24326445538211,"volatility_mean":50.05863973456847,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-23672","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"San Antero","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.5282320767869564,6.510669946793293,15.198738170347],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-23672|2023|Ordinary election|1347","CO-ALC-23672|2019|Ordinary election|1348","CO-ALC-23672|2015|Ordinary election|1349"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-23672|2023|Ordinary election|1347","CO-ALC-23672|2019|Ordinary election|1348","CO-ALC-23672|2015|Ordinary election|1349"],"shares":[[0.4989543675264089,0.48367204675853936],[0.41054980262028723,0.34544310315235427],[0.573627760252366,0.4216403785488959]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":78.04992976427569,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,48.367204675853934,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,51.63279532414606],[0,41.05498026202872,24.400709422735854,34.54431031523543,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[0,42.16403785488959,57.36277602523659,0,0.3659305993690852,0,0,0,0,0,0.10725552050473186]],"volatility_latest":58.94501973797128,"volatility_previous":34.54431031523543,"volatility_mean":46.74466502660336,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-23675","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"San Bernardo Del Viento","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.473787612449591,15.089280620685727,25.667882782158408],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-23675|2023|Ordinary election|1350","CO-ALC-23675|2019|Ordinary election|1351","CO-ALC-23675|2015|Ordinary election|1352"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-23675|2023|Ordinary election|1350","CO-ALC-23675|2019|Ordinary election|1351","CO-ALC-23675|2015|Ordinary election|1352"],"shares":[[0.48004342880777584,0.39530555268327994],[0.538136801871185,0.38724399566432766],[0.5929739908202896,0.33629516299870543]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":39.11077484054344,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,39.530555268327994,0,0,0,60.469444731672006],[0,0,0,0,0,0.67887500713104,0,0,0,53.81368018711849,45.50744480575046],[0,0,59.29739908202895,0,0,0.44721666470519006,0,0,0,6.625867953395316,33.629516299870545]],"volatility_latest":54.49255519424953,"volatility_previous":59.297399082028946,"volatility_mean":56.89497713813924,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-23678","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"San Carlos","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[29.002139661544447,1.5500409866607043,5.3398058252427205],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-23678|2023|Ordinary election|1353","CO-ALC-23678|2019|Ordinary election|1354","CO-ALC-23678|2015|Ordinary election|1355"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-23678|2023|Ordinary election|1353","CO-ALC-23678|2019|Ordinary election|1354","CO-ALC-23678|2015|Ordinary election|1355"],"shares":[[0.5595539129870972,0.2695325163716527],[0.40412847455100975,0.3886280646844027],[0.32273462783171525,0.26933656957928803]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":7.998616622754251,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,16.501329183686703,0.5900278804383065,0,0,82.908642935875],[0,0,0,0,38.86280646844027,0,0.5216484089723527,17.952157388777106,0.0894254415381176,0,42.57396229227215],[0,26.933656957928804,0,26.254045307443366,2.3462783171521036,0,0,0,0,32.273462783171524,12.192556634304207]],"volatility_latest":56.31436141831719,"volatility_previous":85.46116504854369,"volatility_mean":70.88776323343043,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-23682","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"San Jose De Ure","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.654608367411136,0.43951844066501167,5.576055760557608],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-23682|2023|Ordinary election|1356","CO-ALC-23682|2019|Ordinary election|1357","CO-ALC-23682|2015|Ordinary election|1358"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-23682|2023|Ordinary election|1356","CO-ALC-23682|2019|Ordinary election|1357","CO-ALC-23682|2015|Ordinary election|1358"],"shares":[[0.5191884240327147,0.40264234035860336],[0.502197592203325,0.49780240779667495],[0.3843788437884379,0.3286182861828618]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":61.58886935649027,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,2.3120478137779177,51.91884240327147,0,0,0,40.26423403586033,4.59263919471532,0,0,0.9122365523749607],[0,0,50.219759220332506,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,49.780240779667494],[32.86182861828618,0,38.43788437884379,4.1000410004100045,0,24.600246002460025,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":48.86800422729253,"volatility_previous":61.56211562115621,"volatility_mean":55.21505992422437,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-23686","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"San Pelayo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.310412303889592,37.24898476211766,11.914243192148348],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-23686|2023|Ordinary election|1359","CO-ALC-23686|2019|Ordinary election|1360","CO-ALC-23686|2015|Ordinary election|1361"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-23686|2023|Ordinary election|1359","CO-ALC-23686|2019|Ordinary election|1360","CO-ALC-23686|2015|Ordinary election|1361"],"shares":[[0.5044457413574102,0.48134161831851424],[0.6718453112775232,0.29935546365634663],[0.538876151401794,0.4197337194803105]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":31.238164349080556,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,50.444574135741014,0,0,0,0.02746403927357616,0,48.13416183185142,1.335438909677641,0,0.05836108345634934],[67.18453112775232,0,29.935546365634664,0,0,0,0.6482619872582989,0,0,1.6020267501210834,0.6296337692336351],[0.16893930252202244,0.41832589195929365,53.8876151401794,41.97337194803105,0,3.4753227947387475,0,0,0,0,0.07642492256948634]],"volatility_latest":99.94163891654365,"volatility_previous":69.81908940927383,"volatility_mean":84.88036416290873,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-23807","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Tierralta","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.603569761497255,15.510194325596956,3.0354632933290056],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-23807|2023|Ordinary election|1362","CO-ALC-23807|2019|Ordinary election|1363","CO-ALC-23807|2015|Ordinary election|1364"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-23807|2023|Ordinary election|1362","CO-ALC-23807|2019|Ordinary election|1363","CO-ALC-23807|2015|Ordinary election|1364"],"shares":[[0.5624930538576096,0.4164573562426371],[0.5731051461624878,0.41800320290651816],[0.3470915774678343,0.31673694453454426]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":31.4062675804483,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0.08668785703171887,0,0,41.64573562426371,0,0,0,58.26757651870457],[41.80032029065182,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,58.19967970934818],[31.673694453454427,0,11.084982160233539,17.79381554762677,0.3081414206941291,0.610876851551519,0,0,0.381122283490107,0,38.1473672829495]],"volatility_latest":41.80032029065182,"volatility_previous":30.178938263596066,"volatility_mean":35.98962927712394,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-23815","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Tuchin","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.85273891391985,1.1745803091584008,11.71746669100201],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-23815|2023|Ordinary election|1365","CO-ALC-23815|2019|Ordinary election|1366","CO-ALC-23815|2015|Ordinary election|1367"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-23815|2023|Ordinary election|1365","CO-ALC-23815|2019|Ordinary election|1366","CO-ALC-23815|2015|Ordinary election|1367"],"shares":[[0.5547071377756699,0.4261797486364714],[0.26394814117125603,0.252202338079672],[0.5528989474965018,0.4357242805864817]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":53.821179449001846,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,42.61797486364714,0,0,1.5271520037941664,55.47071377756699,0,0,0,0.3841593549917003],[10.7041941381794,0,0,18.111806748296303,26.394814117125602,3.678874175854618,25.2202338079672,15.890077012576874,0,0,0],[55.28989474965018,0,0,0,1.1376771917016488,0,0,0,0,0,43.57242805864817]],"volatility_latest":73.25261418823864,"volatility_previous":88.15812867011896,"volatility_mean":80.7053714291788,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-23855","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Valencia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.13481980814104588,11.495876172183934,0.5262528405693132],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-23855|2023|Ordinary election|1368","CO-ALC-23855|2019|Ordinary election|1369","CO-ALC-23855|2015|Ordinary election|1370"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-23855|2023|Ordinary election|1368","CO-ALC-23855|2019|Ordinary election|1369","CO-ALC-23855|2015|Ordinary election|1370"],"shares":[[0.332486388384755,0.33113819030334457],[0.552875381312846,0.43791661959100664],[0.3467288601841885,0.3414663317784954]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":82.08859989701631,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,33.113819030334454,0,0,0,0,33.2486388384755,0,0,0,33.637542131190045],[0,55.2875381312846,43.791661959100665,0,0.9207999096147328,0,0,0,0,0,0],[26.109317067336445,34.14663317784954,34.67288601841885,0,0,0,0,5.071163736395168,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":66.88618096966555,"volatility_previous":31.180480803731612,"volatility_mean":49.03333088669858,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25001","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Agua De Dios","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.181671317374068,13.854732627966829,19.623346751006324],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25001|2023|Ordinary election|1371","CO-ALC-25001|2019|Ordinary election|1372","CO-ALC-25001|2015|Ordinary election|1373"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25001|2023|Ordinary election|1371","CO-ALC-25001|2019|Ordinary election|1372","CO-ALC-25001|2015|Ordinary election|1373"],"shares":[[0.3858128946981936,0.3139961815244529],[0.4403774663997712,0.30183014012010295],[0.5724554341575618,0.3762219666474986]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":47.86121373042439,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,44.03774663997712,0,0,0,0,0,0,55.96225336002287],null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25019","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Alban","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.33622559652928,18.909612625538017,18.709487330583382],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25019|2023|Ordinary election|1374","CO-ALC-25019|2019|Ordinary election|1375","CO-ALC-25019|2015|Ordinary election|1376"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25019|2023|Ordinary election|1374","CO-ALC-25019|2019|Ordinary election|1375","CO-ALC-25019|2015|Ordinary election|1376"],"shares":[[0.5921908893709328,0.38882863340563995],[0.4952654232424677,0.3061692969870875],[0.47819681791396584,0.291101944608132]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":1.2721606068134328,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,49.52654232424677,19.79913916786227,0.05738880918220947,0,0,0,30.616929698708752],[0,0,0,0,47.81968179139658,0,0,0,0,0,52.180318208603424]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":21.56338850989467,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25035","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Anapoima","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[37.54872735611098,9.665621734587255,4.095848425745334],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25035|2023|Ordinary election|1377","CO-ALC-25035|2019|Ordinary election|1378","CO-ALC-25035|2015|Ordinary election|1379"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25035|2023|Ordinary election|1377","CO-ALC-25035|2019|Ordinary election|1378","CO-ALC-25035|2015|Ordinary election|1379"],"shares":[[0.6326530612244897,0.25716578766337994],[0.4331243469174504,0.33646812957157785],[0.3478684870437448,0.30691000278629144]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,63.265306122448976,0,8.186195826645266,0,0,0,0,28.548498050905756],[0,0,0,0,20.310867293625915,0,0,0,0,0,79.68913270637408],[0,0,0,29.938701588186124,30.691000278629144,0,4.583449428810254,0,0,0,34.78684870437448]],"volatility_latest":71.45150194909424,"volatility_previous":44.902284001999604,"volatility_mean":58.17689297554692,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25040","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Anolaima","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.58241900090357,6.231537487691661,1.8324197337509744],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25040|2023|Ordinary election|1380","CO-ALC-25040|2019|Ordinary election|1381","CO-ALC-25040|2015|Ordinary election|1382"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25040|2023|Ordinary election|1380","CO-ALC-25040|2019|Ordinary election|1381","CO-ALC-25040|2015|Ordinary election|1382"],"shares":[[0.43036013940880335,0.38453594939976765],[0.39231959487972995,0.3300042200028133],[0.3702427564604542,0.35191855912294445]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":75.98922689887631,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,2.039499160965535,0,1.923325158125726,0,0,96.03717568090873],[0,0,6.977071318047545,0,3.2634688423125615,39.23195948797299,0,0,0,0,50.5275003516669],null],"volatility_latest":47.433000487367565,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25053","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Arbelaez","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.537267080745345,3.328264909613111,39.08509922637067],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25053|2023|Ordinary election|1383","CO-ALC-25053|2019|Ordinary election|1384","CO-ALC-25053|2015|Ordinary election|1385"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25053|2023|Ordinary election|1383","CO-ALC-25053|2019|Ordinary election|1384","CO-ALC-25053|2015|Ordinary election|1385"],"shares":[[0.3192546583850932,0.25388198757763975],[0.3921270484879203,0.3588443993917892],[0.6829801547258662,0.2921291624621594]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":55.85325178015896,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,2.0341614906832297,31.925465838509318,10.062111801242237,3.3850931677018634,0,0,0,52.59316770186335],[0,0,0,0,35.88443993917892,0,0,17.722588275046462,0,0,46.392971785774634],[68.29801547258661,0,0,0,2.4890682811974436,0,0,0,0,0,29.212916246215944]],"volatility_latest":21.681562375716055,"volatility_previous":68.29801547258661,"volatility_mean":44.989788924151334,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25086","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Beltran","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[30.984400215169448,1.1289364230540713,22.171353826030085],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25086|2023|Ordinary election|1386","CO-ALC-25086|2019|Ordinary election|1387","CO-ALC-25086|2015|Ordinary election|1388"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25086|2023|Ordinary election|1386","CO-ALC-25086|2019|Ordinary election|1387","CO-ALC-25086|2015|Ordinary election|1388"],"shares":[[0.5255513717052179,0.2157073695535234],[0.4682115270350565,0.45692216280451575],[0.5101373446697187,0.2884238064094179]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,12.748789671866595,2.2592791823561056,21.57073695535234,0.4841312533620226,0,5.486820871436256,0,0,0,57.45024206562668],[0,0,46.821152703505646,0,7.4866310160427805,0,0,0,0,0,45.692216280451575],[0,20.14388489208633,28.84238064094179,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,51.013734466971876]],"volatility_latest":51.5643732838303,"volatility_previous":25.465403078606634,"volatility_mean":38.51488818121847,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25095","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Bituima","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[30.551262235960845,55.47683923705722,7.887479316050744],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25095|2023|Ordinary election|1389","CO-ALC-25095|2019|Ordinary election|1390","CO-ALC-25095|2015|Ordinary election|1391"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25095|2023|Ordinary election|1389","CO-ALC-25095|2019|Ordinary election|1390","CO-ALC-25095|2015|Ordinary election|1391"],"shares":[[0.5249871200412158,0.2194744976816074],[0.7498637602179836,0.19509536784741144],[0.5394373965802537,0.4605626034197463]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,19.509536784741144,0,0,0,5.5040871934604905,0,0,0,0,74.98637602179836],[46.05626034197463,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,53.94373965802537]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":46.05626034197463,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25099","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Bojaca","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.375407634759252,8.28717948717949,2.253775073247688],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25099|2023|Ordinary election|1392","CO-ALC-25099|2019|Ordinary election|1393","CO-ALC-25099|2015|Ordinary election|1394"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25099|2023|Ordinary election|1392","CO-ALC-25099|2019|Ordinary election|1393","CO-ALC-25099|2015|Ordinary election|1394"],"shares":[[0.35871858814502205,0.2449645117974295],[0.3940512820512821,0.3111794871794872],[0.4169483885508226,0.39441063781834573]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":52.31612032832918,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,31.117948717948718,0,29.476923076923075,0,0,39.40512820512821],[6.1753437006986704,0,0,41.69483885508226,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.129817444219064]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":60.59487179487179,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25120","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Cabrera","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[25.27027027027027,27.325581395348834,0.7215007215007176],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25120|2023|Ordinary election|1395","CO-ALC-25120|2019|Ordinary election|1396","CO-ALC-25120|2015|Ordinary election|1397"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25120|2023|Ordinary election|1395","CO-ALC-25120|2019|Ordinary election|1396","CO-ALC-25120|2015|Ordinary election|1397"],"shares":[[0.4752252252252252,0.22252252252252253],[0.5585548172757475,0.28529900332225916],[0.5036075036075036,0.4963924963924964]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,9.36936936936937,0,0,0,0,0,0,90.63063063063063],[0,0,0,15.614617940199336,0,0,0,0,55.85548172757475,0,28.529900332225914],[0,50.36075036075036,0,0,0,0,0,0,49.63924963924964,0,0]],"volatility_latest":62.10073029840472,"volatility_previous":50.36075036075036,"volatility_mean":56.23074032957754,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25123","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Cachipay","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.6194939081537,11.215982381626553,25.358761329305135],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25123|2023|Ordinary election|1398","CO-ALC-25123|2019|Ordinary election|1399","CO-ALC-25123|2015|Ordinary election|1400"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25123|2023|Ordinary election|1398","CO-ALC-25123|2019|Ordinary election|1399","CO-ALC-25123|2015|Ordinary election|1400"],"shares":[[0.48297407060293657,0.3067791315213996],[0.4406166430706308,0.3284568192543653],[0.4478851963746224,0.19429758308157102]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":17.6381640384465,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,0,0,0,12.78323262839879,0,0,0,0,1.9826283987915407,85.23413897280966]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25126","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Cajica","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.052473232457306,6.860449993497202,9.79681308490009],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25126|2023|Ordinary election|1401","CO-ALC-25126|2019|Ordinary election|1402","CO-ALC-25126|2015|Ordinary election|1403"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25126|2023|Ordinary election|1401","CO-ALC-25126|2019|Ordinary election|1402","CO-ALC-25126|2015|Ordinary election|1403"],"shares":[[0.2831607822316609,0.21263604990708784],[0.3738782676550917,0.30527376772011966],[0.34984402664193576,0.25187589579293485]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":63.653498769932234,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,21.263604990708785,0,0,2.4098162404506978,0,0,0,0,0,76.32657876884052],null,[0,0,0,0,4.9911474580558135,3.039372734170812,0,0,4.202849675406795,0,87.76663013236657]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25148","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Caparrapi","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.193288203946423,2.132845825716025,2.2190662169359108],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25148|2023|Ordinary election|1404","CO-ALC-25148|2019|Ordinary election|1405","CO-ALC-25148|2015|Ordinary election|1406"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25148|2023|Ordinary election|1404","CO-ALC-25148|2019|Ordinary election|1405","CO-ALC-25148|2015|Ordinary election|1406"],"shares":[[0.47285035287339766,0.41091747083393343],[0.2720901889092017,0.25076173065204144],[0.2911414876619918,0.2689508254926327]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":77.11133354111874,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[47.28503528733977,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.714964712660226],[27.20901889092017,0,0,25.076173065204145,0,0,0.258988421694089,0,0,17.824497257769654,29.631322364411943],[26.007456062488906,0,2.3433339250843246,26.89508254926327,0.3017930055032842,0.08876264867743654,3.3197230605361265,11.92969998224747,0,0,29.114148766199182]],"volatility_latest":43.15965874466789,"volatility_previous":19.54323368441368,"volatility_mean":31.351446214540783,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25151","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Caqueza","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[29.185045158580127,27.000215656674573,8.308331410108472],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25151|2023|Ordinary election|1407","CO-ALC-25151|2019|Ordinary election|1408","CO-ALC-25151|2015|Ordinary election|1409"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25151|2023|Ordinary election|1407","CO-ALC-25151|2019|Ordinary election|1408","CO-ALC-25151|2015|Ordinary election|1409"],"shares":[[0.5056710775047258,0.2138206259189246],[0.5,0.22999784343325427],[0.3813754904223402,0.2982921763212555]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.614996849401386,0,0,15.13337534131485,0,0,0,0,0,0,82.25162780928376],[0,0,0,0,6.73927108043994,0,0,0,0,0,93.26072891956007],[13.08562197092084,0,0,0,38.13754904223402,0,29.829217632125548,0,0,0,18.947611354719594]],"volatility_latest":17.74837219071624,"volatility_previous":74.31311756484047,"volatility_mean":46.03074487777835,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25154","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Carmen De Carupa","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.294243070362477,22.05914567360351,17.323187108325875],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25154|2023|Ordinary election|1410","CO-ALC-25154|2019|Ordinary election|1411","CO-ALC-25154|2015|Ordinary election|1412"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25154|2023|Ordinary election|1410","CO-ALC-25154|2019|Ordinary election|1411","CO-ALC-25154|2015|Ordinary election|1412"],"shares":[[0.37356076759061835,0.29061833688699357],[0.6102957283680176,0.38970427163198246],[0.48634735899731424,0.31311548791405547]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":33.366958724344364,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,20.106609808102345,0,0,13.47547974413646,0,0,0,0,66.41791044776119],null,[20.053715308863026,0,0,0,48.634735899731425,0,0,0,0,0,31.31154879140555]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25168","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Chaguani","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.638425617078056,12.518518518518515,27.601476014760152],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25168|2023|Ordinary election|1413","CO-ALC-25168|2019|Ordinary election|1414","CO-ALC-25168|2015|Ordinary election|1415"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25168|2023|Ordinary election|1413","CO-ALC-25168|2019|Ordinary election|1414","CO-ALC-25168|2015|Ordinary election|1415"],"shares":[[0.5326884589726485,0.4563042028018679],[0.38888888888888884,0.2637037037037037],[0.6380073800738008,0.36199261992619924]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":44.506207363607984,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,53.268845897264846,0,0,1.1007338225483656,0,0,0,45.63042028018679],[0,26.37037037037037,0,0,4.407407407407407,2.4814814814814814,0,0,0,0,66.74074074074073],[0,36.199261992619924,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,63.800738007380076]],"volatility_latest":54.36957971981321,"volatility_previous":9.82889162224955,"volatility_mean":32.09923567103138,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25175","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Chia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.646673510289876,1.8273309948393965,17.367377810234206],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25175|2023|Ordinary election|1416","CO-ALC-25175|2019|Ordinary election|1417","CO-ALC-25175|2015|Ordinary election|1418"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25175|2023|Ordinary election|1416","CO-ALC-25175|2019|Ordinary election|1417","CO-ALC-25175|2015|Ordinary election|1418"],"shares":[[0.2605139235143634,0.22404718841146468],[0.2182880020568952,0.2000146921085012],[0.48823744196964164,0.31456366386729956]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":77.63529407175417,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[21.828800205689518,0,0,0,3.430607335035169,9.926355806137629,2.3856311178858056,0,1.0523222713999743,14.065857376356725,47.310425887495185],[0,0,0,0,15.520838766887486,0,0,0,3.9278076261019246,0,80.5513536070106]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":48.20664450606968,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25178","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Chipaque","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.8768171384850802,14.91006891914607,33.74602051644853],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25178|2023|Ordinary election|1419","CO-ALC-25178|2019|Ordinary election|1420","CO-ALC-25178|2015|Ordinary election|1421"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25178|2023|Ordinary election|1419","CO-ALC-25178|2019|Ordinary election|1420","CO-ALC-25178|2015|Ordinary election|1421"],"shares":[[0.4688599846977812,0.44009181331293035],[0.5745503445957304,0.42544965540426966],[0.6239830208701804,0.28652281570569504]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":52.1314349476014,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,0,0,8.524938096922533,28.652281570569507,0,0,0,0,0,62.82278033250795]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25181","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Choachi","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.034194969282485,6.105834464043419,17.899222862872904],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25181|2023|Ordinary election|1422","CO-ALC-25181|2019|Ordinary election|1423","CO-ALC-25181|2015|Ordinary election|1424"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25181|2023|Ordinary election|1422","CO-ALC-25181|2019|Ordinary election|1423","CO-ALC-25181|2015|Ordinary election|1424"],"shares":[[0.4398979946679031,0.28955604497507825],[0.4831626989021833,0.4221043542617491],[0.5894961143143645,0.4105038856856355]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":36.789051964650966,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,27.054596035701866,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,72.94540396429814],[0,0,42.21043542617491,0,48.31626989021833,2.294313556186012,0,0,0,0,7.178981127420747],[41.05038856856355,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,58.94961143143645]],"volatility_latest":65.7664228368774,"volatility_previous":92.82101887257926,"volatility_mean":79.29372085472832,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25183","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Choconta","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[27.007431575131413,21.437530149541725,3.0152383010915393],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25183|2023|Ordinary election|1425","CO-ALC-25183|2019|Ordinary election|1426","CO-ALC-25183|2015|Ordinary election|1427"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25183|2023|Ordinary election|1425","CO-ALC-25183|2019|Ordinary election|1426","CO-ALC-25183|2015|Ordinary election|1427"],"shares":[[0.5027188689505165,0.23264455319920244],[0.4351181862035697,0.22074288470815243],[0.2934183508051443,0.2632659677942289]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,5.700561899583107,0,0,0,0,0,0,94.29943810041689],[22.074288470815244,0,0,0,20.154365653642063,0,0,0,0,0,57.77134587554269],[29.34183508051443,3.393494001945315,20.85810007565114,26.32659677942289,4.074354263482114,0,0,0,0,0,16.005619798984114]],"volatility_latest":42.22865412445731,"volatility_previous":57.84573746671853,"volatility_mean":50.03719579558792,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25200","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Cogua","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.377361806837158,0.2209537838335507,18.135158254918732],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25200|2023|Ordinary election|1428","CO-ALC-25200|2019|Ordinary election|1429","CO-ALC-25200|2015|Ordinary election|1430"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25200|2023|Ordinary election|1428","CO-ALC-25200|2019|Ordinary election|1429","CO-ALC-25200|2015|Ordinary election|1430"],"shares":[[0.3701555496968099,0.22638193162843834],[0.3104400662861352,0.30823052844779963],[0.5006415739948674,0.31928999144568004]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":47.46890477627883,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[11.969417347745848,0,22.638193162843834,0,2.46067316987433,0,0.27243167237894367,0,0,0,62.659284647157044],[9.795617749953967,0,0,0,31.044006628613516,0,0,0,0,0,59.160375621432514],[31.928999144568007,0,0,16.028656971770744,0,0,0,0,1.978186484174508,0,50.06415739948674]],"volatility_latest":28.583333458739187,"volatility_previous":40.14022485055929,"volatility_mean":34.36177915464924,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25214","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Cota","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[38.89734838540299,1.0653753026634405,15.697674418604649],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25214|2023|Ordinary election|1431","CO-ALC-25214|2019|Ordinary election|1432","CO-ALC-25214|2015|Ordinary election|1433"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25214|2023|Ordinary election|1431","CO-ALC-25214|2019|Ordinary election|1432","CO-ALC-25214|2015|Ordinary election|1433"],"shares":[[0.5901286426883696,0.2011551588343397],[0.39043583535108956,0.37978208232445515],[0.519752534287418,0.3627757901013715]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0.89787345760042,0,0,0,0,99.10212654239957],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,37.97820823244552,0,0,62.02179176755448],[0,0,0,0,7.416517590936196,0,0,0.38014311270125223,0,0,92.20333929636256]],"volatility_latest":37.97820823244552,"volatility_previous":37.59806511974427,"volatility_mean":37.788136676094894,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25224","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Cucunuba","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.665277415993742,40.72755024166878,20.691578360290013],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25224|2023|Ordinary election|1434","CO-ALC-25224|2019|Ordinary election|1435","CO-ALC-25224|2015|Ordinary election|1436"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25224|2023|Ordinary election|1434","CO-ALC-25224|2019|Ordinary election|1435","CO-ALC-25224|2015|Ordinary election|1436"],"shares":[[0.5319093513935921,0.38525657723365464],[0.6054439074026965,0.19816840498600866],[0.5150585610708309,0.30814277746793084]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[38.52565772336546,0,0,8.283407137275333,0,0,0,0,0,0,53.190935139359205],[19.638768761129484,19.816840498600865,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,60.54439074026965],[51.5058561070831,0,30.814277746793085,12.49302844394869,0,0,0,0,0.9202453987730062,0,4.26659230340212]],"volatility_latest":27.17029609951131,"volatility_previous":76.0946389354684,"volatility_mean":51.63246751748986,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25245","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"El Colegio","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[45.00902201371346,13.733118027011159,0.9898267803134431],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25245|2023|Ordinary election|1437","CO-ALC-25245|2019|Ordinary election|1438","CO-ALC-25245|2015|Ordinary election|1439"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25245|2023|Ordinary election|1437","CO-ALC-25245|2019|Ordinary election|1438","CO-ALC-25245|2015|Ordinary election|1439"],"shares":[[0.6457596535546735,0.1956694334175388],[0.4996330005871991,0.3623018203170875],[0.2709192557969022,0.2610209879937678]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,10.951262477980036,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,89.04873752201996],[26.102098799376776,0,0,0,3.6018696728072586,18.247639996333977,27.09192557969022,0,0,0,24.95646595179177]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":75.04353404820823,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25258","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"El Peñon","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[48.33971902937421,5.034612964128385,9.792387543252595],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25258|2023|Ordinary election|1440","CO-ALC-25258|2019|Ordinary election|1441","CO-ALC-25258|2015|Ordinary election|1442"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25258|2023|Ordinary election|1440","CO-ALC-25258|2019|Ordinary election|1441","CO-ALC-25258|2015|Ordinary election|1442"],"shares":[[0.6877394636015326,0.20434227330779056],[0.525173064820642,0.4748269351793581],[0.485121107266436,0.38719723183391]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[9.418901660280971,0,20.434227330779056,68.77394636015326,0,1.3729246487867177,0,0,0,0,0],[0,0,52.51730648206419,47.48269351793581,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[0,0,38.719723183391004,48.5121107266436,9.273356401384083,3.4948096885813147,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":32.08307915128514,"volatility_previous":13.797583298673189,"volatility_mean":22.940331224979165,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25260","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"El Rosal","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.83118224057822,1.671583087512289,0.9432973482863432],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25260|2023|Ordinary election|1443","CO-ALC-25260|2019|Ordinary election|1444","CO-ALC-25260|2015|Ordinary election|1445"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25260|2023|Ordinary election|1443","CO-ALC-25260|2019|Ordinary election|1444","CO-ALC-25260|2015|Ordinary election|1445"],"shares":[[0.41163310961968685,0.20332128721390463],[0.5083579154375615,0.4916420845624386],[0.3403207210984174,0.3308877476155539]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":34.52742997285374,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[1.6350487370296614,0,0,0,26.454250078608112,0,0,0,0,0,71.91070118436224]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25269","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Facatativa","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.4503010733920938,16.466258562891703,0.26953077142973925],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25269|2023|Ordinary election|1446","CO-ALC-25269|2019|Ordinary election|1447","CO-ALC-25269|2015|Ordinary election|1448"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25269|2023|Ordinary election|1446","CO-ALC-25269|2019|Ordinary election|1447","CO-ALC-25269|2015|Ordinary election|1448"],"shares":[[0.21754079762631992,0.213037786892399],[0.3565806733712287,0.19191808774231162],[0.20131089966104465,0.19861559194674727]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":73.8149435497713,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,9.112488000698141,0,0,0,0,90.88751199930186],[0,0,0,0,13.79900889083224,0,7.085337414371083,0,35.658067337122866,5.210610698148958,38.24697565952486],[10.864948748315433,20.131089966104465,16.220851880589702,0,19.861559194674726,15.016131008290113,17.205047576264956,0,0,0,0.7003716257606076]],"volatility_latest":61.75302434047515,"volatility_previous":78.41528206903607,"volatility_mean":70.08415320475561,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25279","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Fomeque","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.028392958546277214,9.900990099009903,15.782792665726369],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25279|2023|Ordinary election|1449","CO-ALC-25279|2019|Ordinary election|1450","CO-ALC-25279|2015|Ordinary election|1451"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25279|2023|Ordinary election|1449","CO-ALC-25279|2019|Ordinary election|1450","CO-ALC-25279|2015|Ordinary election|1451"],"shares":[[0.3746450880181715,0.3743611584327087],[0.4155626830288663,0.31655278203876724],[0.5225669957686883,0.36473906911142456]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":77.17193964298313,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[25.09937535491198,0,37.43611584327087,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,37.464508801817146],[41.55626830288663,0,0,0,1.5897364384325756,20.136661553479293,5.062055501324781,0,0,0,31.655278203876726],[36.47390691114246,0,0,0,11.269393511988717,0,0,0,0,0,52.256699576868826]],"volatility_latest":43.2453464412113,"volatility_previous":30.281078446548243,"volatility_mean":36.763212443879766,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25281","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Fosca","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.133949191685915,18.82945550491725,22.37190281452971],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25281|2023|Ordinary election|1452","CO-ALC-25281|2019|Ordinary election|1453","CO-ALC-25281|2015|Ordinary election|1454"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25281|2023|Ordinary election|1452","CO-ALC-25281|2019|Ordinary election|1453","CO-ALC-25281|2015|Ordinary election|1454"],"shares":[[0.5397228637413395,0.39838337182448036],[0.5840729191652675,0.39577836411609496],[0.5725282655761367,0.3488092374308395]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":18.168017760301534,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,4.180138568129331,0,0,0,0,0,95.81986143187068],[0,2.0148716718637565,0,39.577836411609496,0,0,0,0,0,0,58.407291916526745],[0,0,0,57.252826557613666,7.818138080346404,0,0,0,0,0,34.92903536203993]],"volatility_latest":41.592708083473255,"volatility_previous":25.49312822635057,"volatility_mean":33.542918154911916,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25286","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Funza","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[42.96045197740113,2.391195597798898,44.4981486192374],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25286|2023|Ordinary election|1455","CO-ALC-25286|2019|Ordinary election|1456","CO-ALC-25286|2015|Ordinary election|1457"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25286|2023|Ordinary election|1455","CO-ALC-25286|2019|Ordinary election|1456","CO-ALC-25286|2015|Ordinary election|1457"],"shares":[[0.6409290646578782,0.21132454488386693],[0.4685342671335668,0.44462231115557777],[0.6333418129398796,0.18836032674750558]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,44.46223111555778,0,0,0,0,0,55.537768884442215],[18.83603267475056,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.647276633030894,0,80.51669069221855]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":44.46223111555778,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25288","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Fuquene","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.221767851525641,45.5011655011655,0.03421142661648702],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25288|2023|Ordinary election|1458","CO-ALC-25288|2019|Ordinary election|1459","CO-ALC-25288|2015|Ordinary election|1460"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25288|2023|Ordinary election|1458","CO-ALC-25288|2019|Ordinary election|1459","CO-ALC-25288|2015|Ordinary election|1460"],"shares":[[0.40578798364265495,0.35357030512739857],[0.655011655011655,0.2],[0.23605884365378035,0.23571672938761548]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":16.065842480366577,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,8.744888329663416,0,0,0,0,91.25511167033659],[20.0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,80.0],[0,0,0,0,0.9237085186452275,23.571672938761548,6.808073896681492,0,5.302771125555935,0,63.39377352035579]],"volatility_latest":20.000000000000004,"volatility_previous":36.60622647964421,"volatility_mean":28.303113239822103,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25290","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Fusagasuga","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.560860466248116,0.5219736911246926,18.35123783795192],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25290|2023|Ordinary election|1461","CO-ALC-25290|2019|Ordinary election|1462","CO-ALC-25290|2015|Ordinary election|1463"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25290|2023|Ordinary election|1461","CO-ALC-25290|2019|Ordinary election|1462","CO-ALC-25290|2015|Ordinary election|1463"],"shares":[[0.341120358203144,0.25551175354066286],[0.242314900772451,0.23709516386120405],[0.4659251598742112,0.28241278149469196]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":64.35883914559267,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,2.6475884557356304,6.7309096218426046,0,25.551175354066288,0,0,0,0,0,65.07032656835548],[0,4.792349056769018,0,0,0,24.2314900772451,4.934227811739153,0,0,0,66.04193305424674],[0.2152761655515924,0,0,0,28.241278149469196,4.115573753192208,0,0,0,0,67.427871931787]],"volatility_latest":32.282084975908894,"volatility_previous":29.84249319256105,"volatility_mean":31.062289084234973,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25293","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Gachala","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.884476534296027,23.365928975810604,2.061048786851032],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25293|2023|Ordinary election|1464","CO-ALC-25293|2019|Ordinary election|1465","CO-ALC-25293|2015|Ordinary election|1466"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25293|2023|Ordinary election|1464","CO-ALC-25293|2019|Ordinary election|1465","CO-ALC-25293|2015|Ordinary election|1466"],"shares":[[0.5794223826714802,0.42057761732851984],[0.616829644879053,0.383170355120947],[0.5103052439342551,0.48969475606574486]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":16.267152539970496,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,42.057761732851986,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,57.942238267148014],[0,38.3170355120947,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,61.6829644879053],[0,51.030524393425516,0,48.969475606574484,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":3.7407262207572884,"volatility_previous":61.6829644879053,"volatility_mean":32.711845354331295,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25295","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Gachancipa","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.741299586274032,4.434760317867216,6.589560188707964],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25295|2023|Ordinary election|1467","CO-ALC-25295|2019|Ordinary election|1468","CO-ALC-25295|2015|Ordinary election|1469"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25295|2023|Ordinary election|1467","CO-ALC-25295|2019|Ordinary election|1468","CO-ALC-25295|2015|Ordinary election|1469"],"shares":[[0.30871258213677294,0.2412995862740326],[0.3317098179953858,0.28736221481671365],[0.3288692740830924,0.26297367219601275]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":69.8291806700231,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,0,26.14518338152488,0,0,0,14.670521990564602,0,26.297367219601277,0,32.88692740830924]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25297","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Gacheta","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.040662108672187,12.986311239193082,7.268681624327833],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25297|2023|Ordinary election|1470","CO-ALC-25297|2019|Ordinary election|1471","CO-ALC-25297|2015|Ordinary election|1472"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25297|2023|Ordinary election|1470","CO-ALC-25297|2019|Ordinary election|1471","CO-ALC-25297|2015|Ordinary election|1472"],"shares":[[0.4688736955739475,0.4384670744872256],[0.38256484149855907,0.25270172910662825],[0.5360652697941777,0.46337845355089935]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":67.7642060030299,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[43.84670744872256,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,56.15329255127744],[0,0,38.25648414985591,0,0.4142651296829971,0,0,0,0,0,61.3292507204611],[53.606526979417765,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,46.393473020582235]],"volatility_latest":43.84670744872256,"volatility_previous":53.606526979417765,"volatility_mean":48.72661721407016,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25299","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Gama","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.7095681625740937,60.78338839075036,0.6424965580541553],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25299|2023|Ordinary election|1473","CO-ALC-25299|2019|Ordinary election|1474","CO-ALC-25299|2015|Ordinary election|1475"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25299|2023|Ordinary election|1473","CO-ALC-25299|2019|Ordinary election|1474","CO-ALC-25299|2015|Ordinary election|1475"],"shares":[[0.49237933954276036,0.4652836579170194],[0.7753657385559226,0.16753185464841905],[0.37631941257457546,0.36989444699403395]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0.3749646471250978,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,4.233700254022016,0,0,0,0,0,95.76629974597799],null,[0,0,0,20.284534189995412,37.63194125745755,0,0,0,0,0,42.08352455254703]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25307","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Girardot","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.839949529263322,8.264733587254781,5.170000645980924],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25307|2023|Ordinary election|1476","CO-ALC-25307|2019|Ordinary election|1477","CO-ALC-25307|2015|Ordinary election|1478"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25307|2023|Ordinary election|1476","CO-ALC-25307|2019|Ordinary election|1477","CO-ALC-25307|2015|Ordinary election|1478"],"shares":[[0.2735319809764146,0.24513248568378143],[0.293443092927059,0.2107957570545112],[0.30834822678236906,0.2566482203225598]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":76.49805070833739,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,5.946676495884015,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,19.476184625465866,74.57713887865013],[0,17.809694020369932,21.3905815981568,30.834822678236904,25.66482203225598,0.37466893477745955,0.4801791520423763,0.10551021726491677,0.40481471113886436,0.9043732908421438,2.0305333649146227]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":91.11841684835923,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25312","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Granada","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.865678150894027,37.74283071230343,13.15789473684211],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25312|2023|Ordinary election|1479","CO-ALC-25312|2019|Ordinary election|1480","CO-ALC-25312|2015|Ordinary election|1481"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25312|2023|Ordinary election|1479","CO-ALC-25312|2019|Ordinary election|1480","CO-ALC-25312|2015|Ordinary election|1481"],"shares":[[0.3909725250763192,0.3323157435673789],[0.6244218316373729,0.24699352451433856],[0.4798160449667859,0.34823709759836485]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":19.209772110441715,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,2.7692978630614915,8.133449629306586,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,89.09725250763192],[0,0,0,0,2.543940795559667,10.314523589269195,0,0,0,0,87.14153561517114],[0,8.25242718446602,0,0,1.7373530914665305,0,0,0,0,0,90.01021972406745]],"volatility_latest":12.858464384828862,"volatility_previous":11.121111293362334,"volatility_mean":11.989787839095598,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25317","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Guacheta","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.118682383336026,30.24146544546212,14.44900875156278],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25317|2023|Ordinary election|1482","CO-ALC-25317|2019|Ordinary election|1483","CO-ALC-25317|2015|Ordinary election|1484"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25317|2023|Ordinary election|1482","CO-ALC-25317|2019|Ordinary election|1483","CO-ALC-25317|2015|Ordinary election|1484"],"shares":[[0.33005005651542063,0.27886323268206037],[0.5713572023313905,0.26894254787676936],[0.4536524379353456,0.3091623504197178]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":32.05725030601736,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[5.578684429641965,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,94.42131557035803],[0,0,30.91623504197178,0,0,45.36524379353456,0,0,0,0,23.71852116449366]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":76.28147883550635,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25320","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Guaduas","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.475777093251189,3.891660727013541,0.9970457902511107],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25320|2023|Ordinary election|1485","CO-ALC-25320|2019|Ordinary election|1486","CO-ALC-25320|2015|Ordinary election|1487"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25320|2023|Ordinary election|1485","CO-ALC-25320|2019|Ordinary election|1486","CO-ALC-25320|2015|Ordinary election|1487"],"shares":[[0.3704144497339681,0.3056566788014562],[0.3099073414112616,0.2709907341411262],[0.3274741506646972,0.3175036927621861]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":74.23665473460058,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[22.63371604592551,0,0,0,0,0.9241108933071969,0,0,0,0,76.44217306076729],[27.099073414112617,26.00855310049893,5.502494654312188,0,30.990734141126158,10.399144689950107,0,0,0,0,0],[0,0,31.75036927621861,9.460856720827179,21.3589364844904,2.7991137370753325,1.8833087149187593,0,0,0,32.74741506646972]],"volatility_latest":76.44217306076729,"volatility_previous":70.33945512412208,"volatility_mean":73.39081409244469,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25322","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Guasca","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.31380698792051,21.110063316718307,34.76449855815444],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25322|2023|Ordinary election|1488","CO-ALC-25322|2019|Ordinary election|1489","CO-ALC-25322|2015|Ordinary election|1490"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25322|2023|Ordinary election|1488","CO-ALC-25322|2019|Ordinary election|1489","CO-ALC-25322|2015|Ordinary election|1490"],"shares":[[0.46239771398882973,0.29925964410962463],[0.37653239929947463,0.16543176613229155],[0.5555911566805511,0.20794617109900673]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":2.0112347820837817,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[6.695406170012125,2.317122457227536,16.543176613229154,3.0850060622389868,37.65323992994746,12.07059140509228,9.928600296376128,0,0,0,11.70685706587633],[55.559115668055114,0,0,20.794617109900674,0,6.007689842999039,0,0,0,0,17.638577379045177]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":72.50504085887353,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25324","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Guataqui","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.376706096451315,8.312468703054577,6.436512580456402],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25324|2023|Ordinary election|1491","CO-ALC-25324|2019|Ordinary election|1492","CO-ALC-25324|2015|Ordinary election|1493"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25324|2023|Ordinary election|1491","CO-ALC-25324|2019|Ordinary election|1492","CO-ALC-25324|2015|Ordinary election|1493"],"shares":[[0.5718835304822566,0.4281164695177434],[0.5403104656985478,0.45718577866800203],[0.3937975424224692,0.32943241661790523]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":41.18292236583599,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,57.18835304822566,0,0,0,0,0,0,42.81164695177434],[0,0,0,0,45.7185778668002,0,0,0,0,0,54.2814221331998],[0,23.815096547688707,39.379754242246925,0,1.1117612638970158,1.6968987712112347,0.058513750731421885,0.994733762434172,0,0,32.94324166179052]],"volatility_latest":57.18835304822566,"volatility_previous":65.94499707431245,"volatility_mean":61.56667506126905,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25326","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Guatavita","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.574413745066167,7.2921730675741365,6.011969532100107],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25326|2023|Ordinary election|1494","CO-ALC-25326|2019|Ordinary election|1495","CO-ALC-25326|2015|Ordinary election|1496"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25326|2023|Ordinary election|1494","CO-ALC-25326|2019|Ordinary election|1495","CO-ALC-25326|2015|Ordinary election|1496"],"shares":[[0.5753424657534246,0.389598328302763],[0.36922702965483717,0.2963052989790958],[0.3653427638737758,0.30522306855277476]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":30.33251439739024,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[57.534246575342465,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,42.465753424657535],[0,0,6.174039863879436,0,0,36.922702965483715,0,0,0,0,56.90325717063685],[0,0,9.820457018498368,36.53427638737758,0,0,0,0,0,0,53.645266594124045]],"volatility_latest":57.534246575342465,"volatility_previous":40.18069354199652,"volatility_mean":48.85747005866949,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25328","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Guayabal De Siquima","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[37.22582638245289,11.70466144947261,65.82577847851793],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25328|2023|Ordinary election|1497","CO-ALC-25328|2019|Ordinary election|1498","CO-ALC-25328|2015|Ordinary election|1499"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25328|2023|Ordinary election|1497","CO-ALC-25328|2019|Ordinary election|1498","CO-ALC-25328|2015|Ordinary election|1499"],"shares":[[0.6842755637936361,0.3120172999691072],[0.5127594419870705,0.3957128274923443],[0.8127709893575088,0.15451320457232953]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[9.152773052058523,0,0,0,39.571282749234435,0,0,0,0,0,51.275944198707045],[81.27709893575089,0,15.451320457232953,0,3.2715806070161606,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":87.57564634092532,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25335","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Guayabetal","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.802967848309976,13.236961451247161,30.66169617893756],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25335|2023|Ordinary election|1500","CO-ALC-25335|2019|Ordinary election|1501","CO-ALC-25335|2015|Ordinary election|1502"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25335|2023|Ordinary election|1500","CO-ALC-25335|2019|Ordinary election|1501","CO-ALC-25335|2015|Ordinary election|1502"],"shares":[[0.45397087111843915,0.4259411926353394],[0.5632086167800453,0.4308390022675737],[0.6505125815470643,0.34389561975768873]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":56.40480618873055,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0.1374003847210772,10.8546303929651,0,0,0,0,89.00796922231383],null,[34.38956197576887,0,0,0,0.5591798695246971,0,0,0,0,0,65.05125815470643]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25339","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Gutierrez","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[50.584532374100725,21.88801480795928,8.440629470672388],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25339|2023|Ordinary election|1503","CO-ALC-25339|2019|Ordinary election|1504","CO-ALC-25339|2015|Ordinary election|1505"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25339|2023|Ordinary election|1503","CO-ALC-25339|2019|Ordinary election|1504","CO-ALC-25339|2015|Ordinary election|1505"],"shares":[[0.6713129496402879,0.16546762589928057],[0.6094400740397964,0.3905599259602036],[0.402002861230329,0.31759656652360513]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[39.05599259602036,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,60.94400740397964],[40.2002861230329,0,31.759656652360515,0,1.1444921316165952,26.75250357653791,0,0,0,0,0.1430615164520744]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":60.80094588752757,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25368","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Jerusalen","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.333333333333329,39.449064449064444,52.11744776962168],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25368|2023|Ordinary election|1506","CO-ALC-25368|2019|Ordinary election|1507","CO-ALC-25368|2015|Ordinary election|1508"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25368|2023|Ordinary election|1506","CO-ALC-25368|2019|Ordinary election|1507","CO-ALC-25368|2015|Ordinary election|1508"],"shares":[[0.5351724137931034,0.4418390804597701],[0.6761954261954262,0.2817047817047817],[0.7425183512140033,0.22134387351778656]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,2.2988505747126435,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,97.70114942528735],[0.7796257796257796,0,0,0,0.7796257796257796,0,0,0,0,0,98.44074844074842],[0,0,74.25183512140033,22.134387351778656,3.6137775268210053,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":2.298850574712635,"volatility_previous":99.22037422037421,"volatility_mean":50.75961239754342,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25372","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Junin","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.15665796344647376,2.380308358128211,14.796203238414293],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25372|2023|Ordinary election|1509","CO-ALC-25372|2019|Ordinary election|1510","CO-ALC-25372|2015|Ordinary election|1511"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25372|2023|Ordinary election|1509","CO-ALC-25372|2019|Ordinary election|1510","CO-ALC-25372|2015|Ordinary election|1511"],"shares":[[0.2919060052219321,0.2903394255874674],[0.40140654584798485,0.3776034622667027],[0.4377442769402568,0.2897822445561139]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":88.56146195326112,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,29.033942558746737,0,0,9.556135770234986,0,0,0,0,61.409921671018274],[40.14065458479848,0,0,0,0,22.09899918853124,0,0,0,0,37.76034622667027],[20.463428252372974,0,28.97822445561139,43.77442769402568,6.78391959798995,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":52.68351800309474,"volatility_previous":79.53657174762702,"volatility_mean":66.11004487536088,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25377","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"La Calera","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.426390171152615,6.9243624209837975,16.469742934695834],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25377|2023|Ordinary election|1512","CO-ALC-25377|2019|Ordinary election|1513","CO-ALC-25377|2015|Ordinary election|1514"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25377|2023|Ordinary election|1512","CO-ALC-25377|2019|Ordinary election|1513","CO-ALC-25377|2015|Ordinary election|1514"],"shares":[[0.32810169732263333,0.16383779561110717],[0.3206423018237303,0.25139867761389234],[0.4438767363883123,0.27917930704135396]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":32.09941438771854,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.604999644911583,0,0,0,0,32.81016973226333,3.2242028265037996,0,0,0,62.36062779632129],[0,11.38559906997021,0,0,5.420329869941146,25.139867761389233,0,0,0,0,58.05420329869941],[0,10.266645377614562,0,44.38767363883123,17.411783490340092,0.01596678907871627,0,0,0,0,27.917930704135397]],"volatility_latest":16.805928939911357,"volatility_previous":56.37912725923018,"volatility_mean":36.59252809957077,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25386","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"La Mesa","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.1260440394836735,19.890460343871325,4.003764842166234],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25386|2023|Ordinary election|1515","CO-ALC-25386|2019|Ordinary election|1516","CO-ALC-25386|2015|Ordinary election|1517"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25386|2023|Ordinary election|1515","CO-ALC-25386|2019|Ordinary election|1516","CO-ALC-25386|2015|Ordinary election|1517"],"shares":[[0.25297393065046825,0.23171349025563148],[0.5605241264559069,0.3616195230171936],[0.29756733275412683,0.25752968433246454]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":61.78429494465888,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,8.712984054669704,0,0,8.23842065299924,0,0,0,0,83.04859529233104],[0,0,0,0,0,2.21159179145868,0,0,0,0,97.78840820854133],[0,10.802200984651028,0,0,25.383724297712135,0,0,0,0,0,63.814074717636835]],"volatility_latest":14.739812916210273,"volatility_previous":36.185925282363165,"volatility_mean":25.46286909928672,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25394","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"La Palma","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.893231649189708,24.15238789646373,15.057915057915054],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25394|2023|Ordinary election|1518","CO-ALC-25394|2019|Ordinary election|1519","CO-ALC-25394|2015|Ordinary election|1520"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25394|2023|Ordinary election|1518","CO-ALC-25394|2019|Ordinary election|1519","CO-ALC-25394|2015|Ordinary election|1520"],"shares":[[0.351954242135367,0.27302192564346994],[0.5789281808239154,0.3374043018592781],[0.48079658605974396,0.3302174354805934]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":32.56276567877776,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,35.195424213536704,0.17159199237368922,0,0,0,0.2669208770257388,11.935176358436607,0,0,52.430886558627265],[1.8410499453153482,5.614290922347794,0,0,33.74043018592781,0,0.18228217280349981,0,0,0,58.62194677360554],[0,0,0.2235318024791709,33.02174354805934,48.079658605974394,0,0,0,0,10.79048973785816,7.884576305628937]],"volatility_latest":41.77254034622144,"volatility_previous":58.37499350844325,"volatility_mean":50.07376692733234,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25398","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"La Peña","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.493232749057022,29.69268184833075,15.767430401576743],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25398|2023|Ordinary election|1521","CO-ALC-25398|2019|Ordinary election|1522","CO-ALC-25398|2015|Ordinary election|1523"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25398|2023|Ordinary election|1521","CO-ALC-25398|2019|Ordinary election|1522","CO-ALC-25398|2015|Ordinary election|1523"],"shares":[[0.5287330818726426,0.41380075438207237],[0.6484634092416538,0.35153659075834626],[0.4387780241438778,0.28110372012811036]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":13.097563779544451,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[27.962552352796255,0,0,0,28.110372012811037,0,0,0,0,0,43.92707563439271]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25402","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"La Vega","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[37.950921632930005,2.4103076752193715,23.212651940922754],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25402|2023|Ordinary election|1524","CO-ALC-25402|2019|Ordinary election|1525","CO-ALC-25402|2015|Ordinary election|1526"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25402|2023|Ordinary election|1524","CO-ALC-25402|2019|Ordinary election|1525","CO-ALC-25402|2015|Ordinary election|1526"],"shares":[[0.6596177767725885,0.28010856044328847],[0.3844274130845274,0.3603243363323337],[0.5803162985230689,0.3481897791138413]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,21.437298678218372,0,0,0,0,2.354770632011552,76.20793068977008],[0,0,0,0,34.81897791138413,0,7.149392236308979,0,0,0,58.031629852306885]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":20.531071469474742,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25407","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Lenguazaque","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.983357452966718,7.265987025023165,21.015992474129824],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25407|2023|Ordinary election|1527","CO-ALC-25407|2019|Ordinary election|1528","CO-ALC-25407|2015|Ordinary election|1529"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25407|2023|Ordinary election|1527","CO-ALC-25407|2019|Ordinary election|1528","CO-ALC-25407|2015|Ordinary election|1529"],"shares":[[0.42257597684515197,0.2827424023154848],[0.41779425393883224,0.34513438368860055],[0.4825964252116651,0.2724365004703669]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":36.64295086650019,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,28.27424023154848,0,0,71.72575976845152],null,[48.25964252116651,0,0,24.4967074317968,0,0,27.243650047036688,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25426","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Macheta","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.124540628828093,6.316725978647682,9.300072656817633],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25426|2023|Ordinary election|1530","CO-ALC-25426|2019|Ordinary election|1531","CO-ALC-25426|2015|Ordinary election|1532"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25426|2023|Ordinary election|1530","CO-ALC-25426|2019|Ordinary election|1531","CO-ALC-25426|2015|Ordinary election|1532"],"shares":[[0.45079624336463864,0.39955083707635775],[0.5315836298932384,0.46841637010676157],[0.42988617098571086,0.3368854444175345]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":70.50125281713538,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[11.61698652511229,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,88.38301347488772],null,[33.68854444175345,0,0,0,23.322838459675467,0,0,0,0,0,42.98861709857108]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25430","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Madrid","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.08555399719495,29.559582065864305,20.19242155121374],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25430|2023|Ordinary election|1533","CO-ALC-25430|2019|Ordinary election|1534","CO-ALC-25430|2015|Ordinary election|1535"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25430|2023|Ordinary election|1533","CO-ALC-25430|2019|Ordinary election|1534","CO-ALC-25430|2015|Ordinary election|1535"],"shares":[[0.4143525011687704,0.23349696119682092],[0.5455627562491734,0.24996693559053035],[0.5835997631734755,0.38167554766133804]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0.6545114539504441,0,0,0,0,0,99.34548854604954],[0,0,0,0,0,10.025128951196931,0,0,0,0,89.97487104880307],[1.4949674363528715,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.9775014801657786,0,96.52753108348135]],"volatility_latest":10.025128951196923,"volatility_previous":10.025128951196931,"volatility_mean":10.025128951196926,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25436","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Manta","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[40.961021505376344,7.111390811831342,1.68094924192485],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25436|2023|Ordinary election|1536","CO-ALC-25436|2019|Ordinary election|1537","CO-ALC-25436|2015|Ordinary election|1538"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25436|2023|Ordinary election|1536","CO-ALC-25436|2019|Ordinary election|1537","CO-ALC-25436|2015|Ordinary election|1538"],"shares":[[0.6807795698924731,0.2711693548387097],[0.5355569540591567,0.4644430459408433],[0.5065919578114699,0.4897824653922215]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,27.116935483870968,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,72.88306451612902],[53.55569540591567,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,46.44430459408433],[48.97824653922215,0,50.659195781147,0,0,0.36255767963085034,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":53.55569540591567,"volatility_previous":51.02175346077785,"volatility_mean":52.28872443334676,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25438","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Medina","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.950839571110663,9.77473853580048,13.118863588886569],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25438|2023|Ordinary election|1539","CO-ALC-25438|2019|Ordinary election|1540","CO-ALC-25438|2015|Ordinary election|1541"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25438|2023|Ordinary election|1539","CO-ALC-25438|2019|Ordinary election|1540","CO-ALC-25438|2015|Ordinary election|1541"],"shares":[[0.370827432733158,0.36131903702205137],[0.45213193885760256,0.35438455349959774],[0.4948819720075204,0.36369333611865473]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":75.925941688524,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[23.46752984017803,0,36.131903702205136,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,40.40056645761683],[19.04666130329847,0,35.438455349959774,0,0.3016894609814964,0,0,0,0,0,45.213193885760255],[0,0.7311468560685189,13.223313139753499,36.36933361186547,49.48819720075204,0.1880091915604763,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":5.11431688912492,"volatility_previous":86.474997399265,"volatility_mean":45.794657144194964,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25473","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Mosquera","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.215748031496062,65.05581778676856,66.22536126954107],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25473|2023|Ordinary election|1542","CO-ALC-25473|2019|Ordinary election|1543","CO-ALC-25473|2015|Ordinary election|1544"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25473|2023|Ordinary election|1542","CO-ALC-25473|2019|Ordinary election|1543","CO-ALC-25473|2015|Ordinary election|1544"],"shares":[[0.5281049868766404,0.35594750656167984],[0.78284758122924,0.1322894033615544],[0.7770324182156684,0.1147788055202577]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,4.040858120426563,0,0,0,0,0,95.95914187957344],[5.440468098939094,3.6939625875469133,0,0,11.47788055202577,0,0,0,1.6844469399213924,0,77.70324182156683]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":18.255900058006606,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25483","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Nariño","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.344255133245959,7.119889756545703,0.4264392324093791],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25483|2023|Ordinary election|1545","CO-ALC-25483|2019|Ordinary election|1546","CO-ALC-25483|2015|Ordinary election|1547"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25483|2023|Ordinary election|1545","CO-ALC-25483|2019|Ordinary election|1546","CO-ALC-25483|2015|Ordinary election|1547"],"shares":[[0.28265618173875057,0.19921363040629095],[0.4451079467156637,0.3739090491502067],[0.5021321961620469,0.4978678038379531]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":64.07418034923889,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[17.737003058103976,0,9.698558322411534,12.494539100043687,5.198776758409786,0,0,6.684141546526868,0,0,48.18698121450415],[16.628387689480938,0,0,0,37.39090491502067,0,1.4699127239320164,0,0,0,44.51079467156637],[50.21321961620469,0,49.78678038379531,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":33.662040880542904,"volatility_previous":83.37161231051905,"volatility_mean":58.51682659553098,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25486","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Nemocon","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.68151164270263,36.60440122824974,9.69482120838471],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25486|2023|Ordinary election|1548","CO-ALC-25486|2019|Ordinary election|1549","CO-ALC-25486|2015|Ordinary election|1550"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25486|2023|Ordinary election|1548","CO-ALC-25486|2019|Ordinary election|1549","CO-ALC-25486|2015|Ordinary election|1550"],"shares":[[0.38859905840437714,0.2217839419773508],[0.6198822927328557,0.2538382804503582],[0.4622379778051788,0.36528976572133165]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[15.474722564734895,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.7725030826140566,0,82.75277435265104]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25488","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Nilo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[44.312681510164566,4.155656978140762,7.0],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25488|2023|Ordinary election|1551","CO-ALC-25488|2019|Ordinary election|1552","CO-ALC-25488|2015|Ordinary election|1553"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25488|2023|Ordinary election|1551","CO-ALC-25488|2019|Ordinary election|1552","CO-ALC-25488|2015|Ordinary election|1553"],"shares":[[0.6829622458857696,0.23983543078412392],[0.48066298342541436,0.43910641364400677],[0.535,0.465]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,23.983543078412392,0,0,0,0,7.28460793804453,0,0,68.73184898354307],null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25489","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Nimaima","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.48940914158306,3.9385584875935393,36.3019508057676],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25489|2023|Ordinary election|1554","CO-ALC-25489|2019|Ordinary election|1555","CO-ALC-25489|2015|Ordinary election|1556"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25489|2023|Ordinary election|1554","CO-ALC-25489|2019|Ordinary election|1555","CO-ALC-25489|2015|Ordinary election|1556"],"shares":[[0.5496098104793757,0.4147157190635451],[0.5191020086648287,0.4797164237888933],[0.6815097540288381,0.31849024597116204]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":35.472959440976716,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,47.97164237888933,0.11815675462780623,0,0,0,0,0,0,51.91020086648287],[31.849024597116202,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,68.1509754028838]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":48.08979913351713,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25491","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Nocaima","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.709176601053507,17.820747321661877,0.19547612398771008],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25491|2023|Ordinary election|1557","CO-ALC-25491|2019|Ordinary election|1558","CO-ALC-25491|2015|Ordinary election|1559"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25491|2023|Ordinary election|1557","CO-ALC-25491|2019|Ordinary election|1558","CO-ALC-25491|2015|Ordinary election|1559"],"shares":[[0.36595508733019133,0.29886332131965626],[0.5503004964724327,0.37209302325581395],[0.2619380061435353,0.2599832449036582]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":53.04361115235281,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,29.886332131965624,0,0,0,0,0,70.11366786803438],[0,0,0,0,37.2093023255814,0,0,0,0,0,62.79069767441861],[26.19380061435353,4.719352136274783,19.51968723820162,25.99832449036582,10.416084892488131,0,0,0,0,0,13.152750628316113]],"volatility_latest":7.322970193615774,"volatility_previous":76.43116447919576,"volatility_mean":41.877067336405766,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25506","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Venecia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[38.13876194432904,1.3327601031814282,10.837887067395265],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25506|2023|Ordinary election|1560","CO-ALC-25506|2019|Ordinary election|1561","CO-ALC-25506|2015|Ordinary election|1562"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25506|2023|Ordinary election|1560","CO-ALC-25506|2019|Ordinary election|1561","CO-ALC-25506|2015|Ordinary election|1562"],"shares":[[0.5542168674698795,0.1728292480265891],[0.3800515907136715,0.36672398968185727],[0.4562841530054645,0.34790528233151186]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,12.50519318653926,0,0,0,87.49480681346074],[0,38.00515907136715,0,0,5.374032674118658,0,0,0,0,0,56.62080825451419],[34.790528233151186,19.581056466302368,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,45.62841530054645]],"volatility_latest":43.37919174548581,"volatility_previous":34.790528233151186,"volatility_mean":39.0848599893185,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25513","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Pacho","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[22.495986598729672,3.8485269165509806,25.548990210776967],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25513|2023|Ordinary election|1563","CO-ALC-25513|2019|Ordinary election|1564","CO-ALC-25513|2015|Ordinary election|1565"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25513|2023|Ordinary election|1563","CO-ALC-25513|2019|Ordinary election|1564","CO-ALC-25513|2015|Ordinary election|1565"],"shares":[[0.49005374467788093,0.2650938786905842],[0.22882924571957428,0.1903439765540645],[0.4339006967104683,0.17841079460269862]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":13.964754723596029,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,26.509387869058422,0,0,1.9473720946464717,0,0.8236197389544218,0,0,70.71962029734068],[22.882924571957428,5.283047971618078,15.671756902668518,19.034397655406448,10.010797470306956,4.2650007712478795,0,5.167360789757828,0,7.905290760450408,9.779423106586457],[13.581444571831732,0,4.885792397918688,43.39006967104683,17.841079460269864,6.9759238028044805,5.141546873622013,8.184143222506394,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":71.77782815714413,"volatility_previous":43.05520634353047,"volatility_mean":57.4165172503373,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25518","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Paime","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.787632221318148,8.37273991655077,3.1612903225806406],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25518|2023|Ordinary election|1566","CO-ALC-25518|2019|Ordinary election|1567","CO-ALC-25518|2015|Ordinary election|1568"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25518|2023|Ordinary election|1566","CO-ALC-25518|2019|Ordinary election|1567","CO-ALC-25518|2015|Ordinary election|1568"],"shares":[[0.5362082994304312,0.44833197721724977],[0.5418636995827538,0.4581363004172461],[0.5158064516129032,0.4841935483870968]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":59.49734829992909,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,44.83319772172498,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,55.16680227827502],[0,0,45.813630041724615,0,54.186369958275385,0,0,0,0,0,0],[0,0,0,48.41935483870968,0,0,0,0,0,0,51.58064516129032]],"volatility_latest":55.16680227827502,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":77.58340113913751,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25524","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Pandi","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.299003322259136,4.856361149110803,10.257314064152272],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25524|2023|Ordinary election|1569","CO-ALC-25524|2019|Ordinary election|1570","CO-ALC-25524|2015|Ordinary election|1571"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25524|2023|Ordinary election|1569","CO-ALC-25524|2019|Ordinary election|1570","CO-ALC-25524|2015|Ordinary election|1571"],"shares":[[0.3475083056478405,0.24451827242524918],[0.43433652530779754,0.3857729138166895],[0.39513570673246384,0.2925625660909411]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":56.68979127748026,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[34.75083056478405,18.272425249169434,0,0,0,24.451827242524917,0,1.7275747508305648,0,0,20.79734219269103],[0,0,0,0,17.9890560875513,0,0,0,0,0,82.01094391244871],[0,29.256256609094113,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,70.74374339090589]],"volatility_latest":79.20265780730897,"volatility_previous":29.256256609094116,"volatility_mean":54.22945720820154,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25530","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Paratebueno (La Naguaya)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.955400322407314,0.15540015540015872,6.544226303567662],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25530|2023|Ordinary election|1572","CO-ALC-25530|2019|Ordinary election|1573","CO-ALC-25530|2015|Ordinary election|1574"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25530|2023|Ordinary election|1572","CO-ALC-25530|2019|Ordinary election|1573","CO-ALC-25530|2015|Ordinary election|1574"],"shares":[[0.5147770016120365,0.48522299838796346],[0.4007381507381508,0.3991841491841492],[0.40236436563225675,0.3369221025965801]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":87.62858564789398,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,40.07381507381508,0,17.735042735042736,2.272727272727273,0,0,0,0,39.91841491841492],[0,0,0,0,21.047076208570825,5.024276968545493,0,0,0,0,73.92864682288368]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":40.07381507381508,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25535","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Pasca","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[21.113533456313935,0.8226691042047563,32.66313288247122],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25535|2023|Ordinary election|1575","CO-ALC-25535|2019|Ordinary election|1576","CO-ALC-25535|2015|Ordinary election|1577"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25535|2023|Ordinary election|1575","CO-ALC-25535|2019|Ordinary election|1576","CO-ALC-25535|2015|Ordinary election|1577"],"shares":[[0.46050645648163674,0.2493711219184974],[0.32888482632541133,0.3206581352833638],[0.6633156644123561,0.33668433558764393]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":19.09382953351546,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[46.05064564816367,10.682542344457488,0,0,0,3.303706188160322,0,0,0,0,39.96310581921851],[0,32.888482632541134,5.978062157221206,0,0,0,0,32.06581352833638,0,0,29.06764168190128],null],"volatility_latest":60.249815973641226,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25572","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Puerto Salgar","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.757303059670498,0.34285714285714874,5.070993914807303],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25572|2023|Ordinary election|1578","CO-ALC-25572|2019|Ordinary election|1579","CO-ALC-25572|2015|Ordinary election|1580"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25572|2023|Ordinary election|1578","CO-ALC-25572|2019|Ordinary election|1579","CO-ALC-25572|2015|Ordinary election|1580"],"shares":[[0.46808805205593246,0.3605150214592275],[0.4202857142857143,0.4168571428571428],[0.36245904197222656,0.3117491028241535]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":64.67830814929914,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,3.2119617887304446,0,0,0.4845632008860584,0.06922331441229405,0,0,0,96.2342516959712],[0.24285714285714285,0,0,0,7.585714285714285,0,3.0285714285714285,0,0,0,89.14285714285715],[0,22.983304727726633,31.174910282415354,0,9.595880792635356,0,0,0,0,0,36.24590419722266]],"volatility_latest":10.787919542730554,"volatility_previous":56.16838151706306,"volatility_mean":33.47815052989681,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25580","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Puli","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[48.069994853319606,12.352362204724407,9.356136820925556],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25580|2023|Ordinary election|1581","CO-ALC-25580|2019|Ordinary election|1582","CO-ALC-25580|2015|Ordinary election|1583"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25580|2023|Ordinary election|1581","CO-ALC-25580|2019|Ordinary election|1582","CO-ALC-25580|2015|Ordinary election|1583"],"shares":[[0.6752444673185795,0.19454451878538342],[0.48326771653543305,0.35974409448818895],[0.5467806841046278,0.45321931589537223]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[19.454451878538343,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,80.54554812146165],[0,0,35.974409448818896,0,12.057086614173228,3.641732283464567,0,0,0,0,48.326771653543304],[0,0,54.67806841046278,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,45.32193158953722]],"volatility_latest":51.67322834645669,"volatility_previous":18.703658961643878,"volatility_mean":35.18844365405028,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25592","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Quebradanegra","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.029629629629632,21.84375,12.0],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25592|2023|Ordinary election|1584","CO-ALC-25592|2019|Ordinary election|1585","CO-ALC-25592|2015|Ordinary election|1586"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25592|2023|Ordinary election|1584","CO-ALC-25592|2019|Ordinary election|1585","CO-ALC-25592|2015|Ordinary election|1586"],"shares":[[0.530074074074074,0.36977777777777776],[0.496875,0.2784375],[0.5526050420168067,0.4326050420168068]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":13.145486111111104,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,6.42962962962963,0,0,0,0,0,0,93.57037037037036],[0,0,0,0,27.84375,0,0,22.46875,0,0,49.6875],[0,0,0,0,1.4789915966386555,0,0,0,0,0,98.52100840336135]],"volatility_latest":50.31249999999999,"volatility_previous":48.83350840336135,"volatility_mean":49.573004201680675,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25594","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Quetame","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.7039249146757669,7.053469852104669,8.290785314855341],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25594|2023|Ordinary election|1587","CO-ALC-25594|2019|Ordinary election|1588","CO-ALC-25594|2015|Ordinary election|1589"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25594|2023|Ordinary election|1587","CO-ALC-25594|2019|Ordinary election|1588","CO-ALC-25594|2015|Ordinary election|1589"],"shares":[[0.3485494880546075,0.3415102389078498],[0.39317406143344713,0.3226393629124004],[0.46097738876732314,0.3780695356187697]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":83.16262782038802,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,16.814562002275313,83.18543799772469],[0,0,0,0,16.09530756139071,0,0,0,0,0,83.90469243860929]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":16.81456200227531,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25596","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Quipile","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.301991429291654,4.964539007092199,1.6611295681063183],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25596|2023|Ordinary election|1590","CO-ALC-25596|2019|Ordinary election|1591","CO-ALC-25596|2015|Ordinary election|1592"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25596|2023|Ordinary election|1590","CO-ALC-25596|2019|Ordinary election|1591","CO-ALC-25596|2015|Ordinary election|1592"],"shares":[[0.4824804638265692,0.41946054953365264],[0.524822695035461,0.475177304964539],[0.5083056478405316,0.4916943521594684]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":72.81665241743357,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[50.83056478405316,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,49.16943521594684]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25599","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Apulo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.442307692307686,5.902848944455833,15.485961123110151],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25599|2023|Ordinary election|1593","CO-ALC-25599|2019|Ordinary election|1594","CO-ALC-25599|2015|Ordinary election|1595"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25599|2023|Ordinary election|1593","CO-ALC-25599|2019|Ordinary election|1594","CO-ALC-25599|2015|Ordinary election|1595"],"shares":[[0.5276923076923077,0.3932692307692308],[0.37671654027464646,0.31768805083008816],[0.41317494600431964,0.2583153347732181]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":43.075822944838116,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,7.596153846153846,0,0,92.40384615384615],null,[0.4535637149028078,0,0,0,23.779697624190064,0,8.617710583153348,0,0,0,67.14902807775377]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25612","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Ricaurte","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.452859754505091,46.12359550561798,11.124173401910355],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25612|2023|Ordinary election|1596","CO-ALC-25612|2019|Ordinary election|1597","CO-ALC-25612|2015|Ordinary election|1598"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25612|2023|Ordinary election|1596","CO-ALC-25612|2019|Ordinary election|1597","CO-ALC-25612|2015|Ordinary election|1598"],"shares":[[0.494254374510316,0.44972577696526506],[0.6189606741573034,0.1577247191011236],[0.5556208670095518,0.44437913299044823]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":11.893940777102575,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,5.601984852441891,0,0,0,0,0,94.39801514755811],[0,0,0,0,15.77247191011236,0,0,0.39325842696629215,0,0,83.83426966292136],null],"volatility_latest":10.563745484636758,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25645","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"San Antonio Del Tequendama","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.0351651697366364,7.25260201552949,30.652759084791384],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25645|2023|Ordinary election|1599","CO-ALC-25645|2019|Ordinary election|1600","CO-ALC-25645|2015|Ordinary election|1601"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25645|2023|Ordinary election|1599","CO-ALC-25645|2019|Ordinary election|1600","CO-ALC-25645|2015|Ordinary election|1601"],"shares":[[0.3974729791444664,0.38712132744710004],[0.5362630100776474,0.46373698992235257],[0.6211305518169583,0.31460296096904444]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":70.68922192510017,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,21.144770893591108,0,0,0,78.8552291064089],null,[0,0,0,0,4.088156123822342,0,0,0,0,2.338492597577389,93.57335127860027]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25649","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"San Bernardo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.138950480413897,8.801498127340828,17.329545454545453],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25649|2023|Ordinary election|1602","CO-ALC-25649|2019|Ordinary election|1603","CO-ALC-25649|2015|Ordinary election|1604"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25649|2023|Ordinary election|1602","CO-ALC-25649|2019|Ordinary election|1603","CO-ALC-25649|2015|Ordinary election|1604"],"shares":[[0.4909460458240946,0.4495565410199556],[0.5322097378277154,0.44419475655430707],[0.49507575757575756,0.321780303030303]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":65.71612864047434,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.6179775280898876,99.3820224719101],[32.178030303030305,0,0,18.314393939393938,0,0,0,0,0,0,49.50757575757576]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":50.492424242424235,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25653","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"San Cayetano","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.5851375073142151,17.760968229954614,4.232983406705046],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25653|2023|Ordinary election|1605","CO-ALC-25653|2019|Ordinary election|1606","CO-ALC-25653|2015|Ordinary election|1607"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25653|2023|Ordinary election|1605","CO-ALC-25653|2019|Ordinary election|1606","CO-ALC-25653|2015|Ordinary election|1607"],"shares":[[0.5029256875365711,0.4970743124634289],[0.588804841149773,0.41119515885022695],[0.47070775482560107,0.42837792075855063]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":69.48664342977291,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,0,42.83779207585506,47.07077548256011,0,10.091432441584828,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25658","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"San Francisco","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.115702479338847,7.5057532306602965,4.125443345155865],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25658|2023|Ordinary election|1608","CO-ALC-25658|2019|Ordinary election|1609","CO-ALC-25658|2015|Ordinary election|1610"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25658|2023|Ordinary election|1608","CO-ALC-25658|2019|Ordinary election|1609","CO-ALC-25658|2015|Ordinary election|1610"],"shares":[[0.34859504132231406,0.2674380165289256],[0.3395291201982652,0.26447158789166225],[0.492626470039201,0.45137203658764236]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":62.331541043415086,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,1.486988847583643,11.382545583289078,12.568596211718889,0,0,0,74.5618693574084],[45.137203658764236,0,0,0,5.600149337315662,0,0,0,0,0,49.2626470039201]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":49.25036414849626,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25662","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"San Juan De Rioseco","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.63234111021722,17.732324045740057,11.1740473738414],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25662|2023|Ordinary election|1611","CO-ALC-25662|2019|Ordinary election|1612","CO-ALC-25662|2015|Ordinary election|1613"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25662|2023|Ordinary election|1611","CO-ALC-25662|2019|Ordinary election|1612","CO-ALC-25662|2015|Ordinary election|1613"],"shares":[[0.5493161705551086,0.36299275945293646],[0.5886616202287003,0.4113383797712997],[0.390662547202197,0.278922073463783]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":11.917466913817554,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,0,4.7888774459320285,26.038448335049775,39.0662547202197,0,0,2.214212152420185,0,0,27.892207346378303]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25718","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Sasaima","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[23.6436037829766,24.75490196078431,4.277062831188495],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25718|2023|Ordinary election|1614","CO-ALC-25718|2019|Ordinary election|1615","CO-ALC-25718|2015|Ordinary election|1616"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25718|2023|Ordinary election|1614","CO-ALC-25718|2019|Ordinary election|1615","CO-ALC-25718|2015|Ordinary election|1616"],"shares":[[0.5065538410486146,0.27011780321884854],[0.6237745098039216,0.3762254901960784],[0.43168054504163517,0.38890991672975017]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,14.567778330844533,0,0,0,0,85.43222166915547],null,[43.168054504163514,0,0,0,9.85995457986374,0,0,0,0,0,46.97199091597275]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25736","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Sesquile","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[35.40489642184557,5.728824688115566,37.00361010830324],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25736|2023|Ordinary election|1617","CO-ALC-25736|2019|Ordinary election|1618","CO-ALC-25736|2015|Ordinary election|1619"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25736|2023|Ordinary election|1617","CO-ALC-25736|2019|Ordinary election|1618","CO-ALC-25736|2015|Ordinary election|1619"],"shares":[[0.538135593220339,0.18408662900188325],[0.4962245567957978,0.43893630991464216],[0.6850180505415162,0.31498194945848373]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,12.915881983678593,0,11.817325800376647,0,0,0,0,75.26679221594476],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,6.483913328956008,0,93.516086671044],null],"volatility_latest":24.73320778405524,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25740","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Sibate","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.273148698442885,12.176227084565348,0.24436959249719337],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25740|2023|Ordinary election|1620","CO-ALC-25740|2019|Ordinary election|1621","CO-ALC-25740|2015|Ordinary election|1622"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25740|2023|Ordinary election|1620","CO-ALC-25740|2019|Ordinary election|1621","CO-ALC-25740|2015|Ordinary election|1622"],"shares":[[0.3006656365149174,0.25793414953048854],[0.497397989355411,0.3756357185097576],[0.5012218479624859,0.498778152037514]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":68.79402848157473,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[12.807559728990848,0,0,0,0,30.066563651491737,0,0,0,0,57.12587661951742],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,3.6723832052040213,0,0,96.32761679479599],null],"volatility_latest":42.87412338048259,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25743","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Silvania","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.540340239178036,0.33407572383073614,20.417863154767797],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25743|2023|Ordinary election|1623","CO-ALC-25743|2019|Ordinary election|1624","CO-ALC-25743|2015|Ordinary election|1625"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25743|2023|Ordinary election|1623","CO-ALC-25743|2019|Ordinary election|1624","CO-ALC-25743|2015|Ordinary election|1625"],"shares":[[0.41746673404076134,0.252063331648981],[0.39346696362286565,0.3901262063845583],[0.47677987919596,0.27260124764828203]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":39.66893411933589,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,5.364662287350514,0,0,0,0,94.63533771264949],[0,0,0,0,0,0,1.3919821826280623,0,0,0,98.60801781737194],null],"volatility_latest":5.364662287350517,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25745","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Simijaca","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.739038403386758,1.2676743052169641,11.740890688259107],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25745|2023|Ordinary election|1626","CO-ALC-25745|2019|Ordinary election|1627","CO-ALC-25745|2015|Ordinary election|1628"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25745|2023|Ordinary election|1626","CO-ALC-25745|2019|Ordinary election|1627","CO-ALC-25745|2015|Ordinary election|1628"],"shares":[[0.4144239491986695,0.3270335651648019],[0.42255810173898906,0.40988135868681946],[0.5090653054039782,0.3916563985213871]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":66.01092798788473,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,3.7542662116040955,0,1.8690069884609133,0,0,11.132780757354137,0,0,83.24394604258086],[50.90653054039782,0,39.16563985213871,5.016722408026756,4.911107199436719,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":94.376726799935,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25754","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Soacha","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.26451781286702,10.031375513037972,24.790421735952886],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25754|2023|Ordinary election|1629","CO-ALC-25754|2019|Ordinary election|1630","CO-ALC-25754|2015|Ordinary election|1631"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25754|2023|Ordinary election|1629","CO-ALC-25754|2019|Ordinary election|1630","CO-ALC-25754|2015|Ordinary election|1631"],"shares":[[0.4108051676888947,0.3481599895602245],[0.5016302962656988,0.401316541135319],[0.5257620050728687,0.2778577877133399]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":53.76417242386553,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[2.325781350758781,0,0,0,15.340054167920554,0,0,0,1.972185202699798,0,80.36197927862086]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25758","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Sopo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.797601199400297,48.41323941528441,17.70517375855793],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25758|2023|Ordinary election|1632","CO-ALC-25758|2019|Ordinary election|1633","CO-ALC-25758|2015|Ordinary election|1634"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25758|2023|Ordinary election|1632","CO-ALC-25758|2019|Ordinary election|1633","CO-ALC-25758|2015|Ordinary election|1634"],"shares":[[0.3381559220389805,0.19017991004497753],[0.6094826933272741,0.12535029917443005],[0.3663229049311032,0.18927116734552388]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[11.686656671664167,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,88.31334332833583],[11.557979247140802,0,0,3.7794440657426343,0,12.535029917443005,0,0,0,0,72.12754676967356],[18.086489297166132,0,0,3.839154172805269,2.279226969408094,0,0,7.955628737325592,0,0,67.83950082329491]],"volatility_latest":16.31447398318564,"volatility_previous":16.82307586382165,"volatility_mean":16.568774923503646,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25769","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Subachoque","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.7610893090736113,22.5007286505392,5.649946062567423],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25769|2023|Ordinary election|1635","CO-ALC-25769|2019|Ordinary election|1636","CO-ALC-25769|2015|Ordinary election|1637"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25769|2023|Ordinary election|1635","CO-ALC-25769|2019|Ordinary election|1636","CO-ALC-25769|2015|Ordinary election|1637"],"shares":[[0.3351171364014746,0.3275062433107385],[0.612503643252696,0.387496356747304],[0.46129989212513484,0.40480043149946066]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":61.14066606568665,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,38.7496356747304,0,0,0,0,0,61.2503643252696],[13.389967637540453,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,86.61003236245955]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":38.7496356747304,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25772","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Suesca","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.194089559943215,16.970565251367546,4.933096888602286],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25772|2023|Ordinary election|1638","CO-ALC-25772|2019|Ordinary election|1639","CO-ALC-25772|2015|Ordinary election|1640"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25772|2023|Ordinary election|1638","CO-ALC-25772|2019|Ordinary election|1639","CO-ALC-25772|2015|Ordinary election|1640"],"shares":[[0.28158472060911083,0.23964382500967868],[0.49257619171659284,0.3228705392029174],[0.3854586490407867,0.33612768015476385]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":59.495334998817896,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,3.6391792489353465,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,96.36082075106467],[0,5.157593123209169,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,94.84240687679083],[33.612768015476384,0,0.04836369498629695,0,0,2.9179429308399163,16.282443978719975,0,0,0,47.13848137997743]],"volatility_latest":1.5184138742738278,"volatility_previous":52.86151862002257,"volatility_mean":27.1899662471482,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25777","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Supata","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[29.22979797979798,24.940617577197145,63.14779270633398],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25777|2023|Ordinary election|1641","CO-ALC-25777|2019|Ordinary election|1642","CO-ALC-25777|2015|Ordinary election|1643"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25777|2023|Ordinary election|1641","CO-ALC-25777|2019|Ordinary election|1642","CO-ALC-25777|2015|Ordinary election|1643"],"shares":[[0.5931186868686869,0.30082070707070707],[0.6247030878859857,0.3752969121140143],[0.7800383877159309,0.14856046065259115]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[78.0038387715931,0,0,0,14.856046065259116,0,0,0,0,0,7.140115163147793]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25779","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Susa","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.5230125523012568,2.976515565264883,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25779|2023|Ordinary election|1644","CO-ALC-25779|2019|Ordinary election|1645","CO-ALC-25779|2015|Ordinary election|1646"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25779|2023|Ordinary election|1644","CO-ALC-25779|2019|Ordinary election|1645","CO-ALC-25779|2015|Ordinary election|1646"],"shares":[[0.2834728033472803,0.27824267782426776],[0.38339705079191694,0.3536318951392681],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[28.347280334728033,0,27.824267782426777,6.668410041841004,0,11.218619246861925,0,0,0,0,25.94142259414226],[26.297105406881485,0,0,0,38.339705079191695,0,0,0,0,0,35.36318951392681],[100.0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":47.76147199897625,"volatility_previous":73.70289459311851,"volatility_mean":60.73218329604738,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25781","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Sutatausa","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.893476205483768,10.368349249658941,19.956220357533745],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25781|2023|Ordinary election|1647","CO-ALC-25781|2019|Ordinary election|1648","CO-ALC-25781|2015|Ordinary election|1649"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25781|2023|Ordinary election|1647","CO-ALC-25781|2019|Ordinary election|1648","CO-ALC-25781|2015|Ordinary election|1649"],"shares":[[0.2795461708162622,0.22061140876142452],[0.5201227830832197,0.41643929058663026],[0.5928493250638452,0.39328712148850786]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":56.78893733029341,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.2921525370312008,2.867948313898519,0,0,0,0,16.577371572644186,0,0,0,79.26252757642608],[0,0,6.343792633015007,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,93.656207366985],[0.43779642466253194,0,39.328712148850784,0.8391098139365195,59.28493250638453,0,0,0.10944910616563298,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":20.737472423573916,"volatility_previous":93.656207366985,"volatility_mean":57.19683989527946,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25785","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Tabio","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.8412071133465062,8.362667681476545,5.915579747355448],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25785|2023|Ordinary election|1650","CO-ALC-25785|2019|Ordinary election|1651","CO-ALC-25785|2015|Ordinary election|1652"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25785|2023|Ordinary election|1650","CO-ALC-25785|2019|Ordinary election|1651","CO-ALC-25785|2015|Ordinary election|1652"],"shares":[[0.21546613975211065,0.1970540686186456],[0.34126153553420224,0.2576348587194368],[0.31087603984800244,0.251720242374448]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":78.97458726406794,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25793","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Tausa","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.427058569267341,43.02120141342756,2.5465692053760876],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25793|2023|Ordinary election|1653","CO-ALC-25793|2019|Ordinary election|1654","CO-ALC-25793|2015|Ordinary election|1655"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25793|2023|Ordinary election|1653","CO-ALC-25793|2019|Ordinary election|1654","CO-ALC-25793|2015|Ordinary election|1655"],"shares":[[0.4348389885454938,0.3105684028528204],[0.7062720848056537,0.2760600706713781],[0.367130393775053,0.34166470172129215]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[3.177004538577912,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,96.82299546142208],[0,0,0,0,70.62720848056537,1.7667844522968197,0,0,0,0,27.60600706713781],[3.4190049516623437,34.166470172129216,0,0,20.867719877387408,0,0,0,0,0,41.54680499882103]],"volatility_latest":72.39399293286219,"volatility_previous":51.52627305547478,"volatility_mean":61.96013299416849,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25797","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Tena","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[24.485294117647058,31.889763779527556,0.628778718258765],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25797|2023|Ordinary election|1656","CO-ALC-25797|2019|Ordinary election|1657","CO-ALC-25797|2015|Ordinary election|1658"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25797|2023|Ordinary election|1656","CO-ALC-25797|2019|Ordinary election|1657","CO-ALC-25797|2015|Ordinary election|1658"],"shares":[[0.5099264705882353,0.2650735294117647],[0.6594488188976377,0.3405511811023622],[0.460459492140266,0.45417170495767833]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,3.6948529411764706,0,0,0,96.30514705882352],null,[0,45.417170495767834,0,0,4.522370012091899,0,0,0,0.5562273276904474,0,49.50423216444982]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25799","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Tenjo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.718148987990261,16.80007446016381,23.469281318452072],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25799|2023|Ordinary election|1659","CO-ALC-25799|2019|Ordinary election|1660","CO-ALC-25799|2015|Ordinary election|1661"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25799|2023|Ordinary election|1659","CO-ALC-25799|2019|Ordinary election|1660","CO-ALC-25799|2015|Ordinary election|1661"],"shares":[[0.37675317040396405,0.29957168052406147],[0.38644825018615037,0.21844750558451229],[0.48471889016376346,0.25002607697924273]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":39.91080068655746,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,21.844750558451228,0,0,19.11764705882353,0,0,0,0.7352941176470589,0,58.302308265078175],[0,0.41723166788359234,0,0,48.471889016376345,0,0.04172316678835924,0,2.0027120058412433,0,49.06644414311046]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":30.663383012535355,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25805","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Tibacuy","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.8388746803069,2.7144408251900103,8.746355685131196],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25805|2023|Ordinary election|1662","CO-ALC-25805|2019|Ordinary election|1663","CO-ALC-25805|2015|Ordinary election|1664"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25805|2023|Ordinary election|1662","CO-ALC-25805|2019|Ordinary election|1663","CO-ALC-25805|2015|Ordinary election|1664"],"shares":[[0.5735294117647058,0.39514066496163686],[0.43141512848353236,0.40427072023163224],[0.3848396501457726,0.29737609329446063]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":38.03853687872868,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,3.132992327365729,0,0,0,0,0,0,96.86700767263427],null,[0,1.7909204498125781,0,0,1.0412328196584757,0,0,0,0,0,97.16784673052895]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25807","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Tibirita","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.21425266080518,38.957345971563974,32.59668508287292],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25807|2023|Ordinary election|1665","CO-ALC-25807|2019|Ordinary election|1666","CO-ALC-25807|2015|Ordinary election|1667"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25807|2023|Ordinary election|1665","CO-ALC-25807|2019|Ordinary election|1666","CO-ALC-25807|2015|Ordinary election|1667"],"shares":[[0.5705691809347524,0.3984266543267006],[0.6947867298578199,0.3052132701421801],[0.5580110497237569,0.23204419889502761]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,3.100416473854697,0,0,0,96.8995835261453],null,[55.80110497237569,0,0,17.930688096433954,0,0,3.0637870416875943,0,0,0,23.204419889502763]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25815","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Tocaima","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.793326693227094,13.84655464374104,33.27987169206095],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25815|2023|Ordinary election|1668","CO-ALC-25815|2019|Ordinary election|1669","CO-ALC-25815|2015|Ordinary election|1670"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25815|2023|Ordinary election|1668","CO-ALC-25815|2019|Ordinary election|1669","CO-ALC-25815|2015|Ordinary election|1670"],"shares":[[0.4508217131474104,0.4028884462151395],[0.4392340758108636,0.30076852937345316],[0.5139000267308207,0.1811013098102112]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":48.210252108676684,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,1.849680864921193,6.838608831574834,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,91.31171030350397],[0,16.626570435712377,18.11013098102112,0,13.13819834268912,0,0,0,0,0,52.12510024057739]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":39.18661006292658,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25817","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Tocancipa","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.928244972577701,3.3207107486163707,16.160810887762658],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25817|2023|Ordinary election|1671","CO-ALC-25817|2019|Ordinary election|1672","CO-ALC-25817|2015|Ordinary election|1673"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25817|2023|Ordinary election|1671","CO-ALC-25817|2019|Ordinary election|1672","CO-ALC-25817|2015|Ordinary election|1673"],"shares":[[0.42923522242535045,0.2899527726995734],[0.2632294397514322,0.23002233226526847],[0.5767894766812823,0.4151813678036558]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":45.153793515461004,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,5.012187690432663,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,94.98781230956733],[0,0,0,0,23.002233226526847,0,0,0,2.4080007767744442,12.559471793377998,62.030294203320715],[0,0,0,0,57.67894766812824,0,0,0.8029155515061784,0,0,41.51813678036558]],"volatility_latest":37.969705796679285,"volatility_previous":35.47962999310757,"volatility_mean":36.72466789489343,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25823","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Topaipi","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[30.59839605181986,0.6907894736842053,30.280172413793096],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25823|2023|Ordinary election|1674","CO-ALC-25823|2019|Ordinary election|1675","CO-ALC-25823|2015|Ordinary election|1676"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25823|2023|Ordinary election|1674","CO-ALC-25823|2019|Ordinary election|1675","CO-ALC-25823|2015|Ordinary election|1676"],"shares":[[0.6483652066625539,0.34238124614435533],[0.4325657894736842,0.4256578947368421],[0.6497844827586207,0.34698275862068967]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0.9253547193090684,0,0,0,0,99.07464528069093],[0,42.56578947368421,0,11.743421052631579,2.039473684210526,0,0,0.39473684210526316,0,0,43.25657894736842],[0,34.69827586206897,0,0.3232758620689655,0,0,0,0,0,0,64.97844827586206]],"volatility_latest":56.74342105263158,"volatility_previous":21.721869328493646,"volatility_mean":39.232645190562614,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25839","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Ubala","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.7467105263157947,28.189593727726304,21.602087934149765],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25839|2023|Ordinary election|1677","CO-ALC-25839|2019|Ordinary election|1678","CO-ALC-25839|2015|Ordinary election|1679"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25839|2023|Ordinary election|1677","CO-ALC-25839|2019|Ordinary election|1678","CO-ALC-25839|2015|Ordinary election|1679"],"shares":[[0.4756578947368421,0.4481907894736842],[0.6359586600142552,0.35406272273699213],[0.5934551294920698,0.3774342501505722]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":38.67443386238828,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,7.615131578947368,0,0,0,0,92.38486842105263],null,[0,0,0,0,0.3212206384260189,37.74342501505722,1.6462557719333468,0,0,0,60.28909857458341]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25841","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Ubaque","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.76595744680851,17.04468897372558,25.012118274357732],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25841|2023|Ordinary election|1680","CO-ALC-25841|2019|Ordinary election|1681","CO-ALC-25841|2015|Ordinary election|1682"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25841|2023|Ordinary election|1680","CO-ALC-25841|2019|Ordinary election|1681","CO-ALC-25841|2015|Ordinary election|1682"],"shares":[[0.30851063829787234,0.20085106382978724],[0.429598023804177,0.2591511340669212],[0.4692195831313621,0.21909840038778478]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":29.62903506180724,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[8.02127659574468,7.8936170212765955,13.659574468085106,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,70.42553191489363],[0,2.829553110262744,0,0,4.423983831125084,2.1558499887716147,25.915113406692118,0,0,0,64.67549966314844],[18.395540475036356,0,2.593310712554532,6.4226854095976735,21.909840038778476,0.2423654871546292,46.92195831313621,0,3.514299563742123,0,0]],"volatility_latest":32.49494722658882,"volatility_previous":69.41853727502817,"volatility_mean":50.956742250808496,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25843","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Ubate","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.0054064308071702,12.26400921428214,24.22983544645266],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25843|2023|Ordinary election|1683","CO-ALC-25843|2019|Ordinary election|1684","CO-ALC-25843|2015|Ordinary election|1685"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25843|2023|Ordinary election|1683","CO-ALC-25843|2019|Ordinary election|1684","CO-ALC-25843|2015|Ordinary election|1685"],"shares":[[0.4444655221473964,0.4344114578393247],[0.3383244028243778,0.21568431068155638],[0.4767197194496898,0.2344213649851632]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":66.47284916292895,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[18.30337022384696,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,81.69662977615303],[0,0,0,0,0.9333693013218236,0,0,0,0,3.7820339897491233,95.28459670892904]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":18.30337022384696,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25845","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Une","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.548281505728312,11.23302957039241,5.984986812740928],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25845|2023|Ordinary election|1686","CO-ALC-25845|2019|Ordinary election|1687","CO-ALC-25845|2015|Ordinary election|1688"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25845|2023|Ordinary election|1686","CO-ALC-25845|2019|Ordinary election|1687","CO-ALC-25845|2015|Ordinary election|1688"],"shares":[[0.5777414075286416,0.42225859247135844],[0.5525385902919844,0.44020829458806027],[0.5299249340637047,0.47007506593629533]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":33.51311772085599,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,0.7253115119955366,0,0,0,99.27468848800447],[0,0,0,52.992493406370464,0,0,0,0,0,0,47.007506593629536]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":52.99249340637047,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25851","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Utica","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.2295514511873336,21.672788923424697,15.647638365691101],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25851|2023|Ordinary election|1689","CO-ALC-25851|2019|Ordinary election|1690","CO-ALC-25851|2015|Ordinary election|1691"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25851|2023|Ordinary election|1689","CO-ALC-25851|2019|Ordinary election|1690","CO-ALC-25851|2015|Ordinary election|1691"],"shares":[[0.5361477572559367,0.46385224274406334],[0.6010172365074881,0.38428934727324104],[0.5299913068675746,0.3735149232106636]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":37.97834307845541,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[38.428934727324105,0,0,0,1.469341621927098,0,0,0,0,0,60.1017236507488],[52.99913068675746,37.35149232106636,0,0,3.9988409156766154,0,0,0,0,0,5.650536076499566]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":54.45118757424924,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25862","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Vergara","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.587628865979383,13.536201469045125,24.805116929842093],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25862|2023|Ordinary election|1692","CO-ALC-25862|2019|Ordinary election|1693","CO-ALC-25862|2015|Ordinary election|1694"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25862|2023|Ordinary election|1692","CO-ALC-25862|2019|Ordinary election|1693","CO-ALC-25862|2015|Ordinary election|1694"],"shares":[[0.5243298969072164,0.4284536082474226],[0.5676810073452256,0.43231899265477436],[0.599240455726564,0.3511892864281431]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":38.530252733573114,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,42.845360824742265,0,0,0,0,0,0,57.154639175257735],[0,0,0,43.23189926547744,0,0,0,0,0,0,56.76810073452256],[0,0,0,4.957025784529282,0,0,0,0,0,0,95.04297421547071]],"volatility_latest":0.38653844073517263,"volatility_previous":38.27487348094815,"volatility_mean":19.330705960841662,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25867","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Viani","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.1332445036642227,7.100591715976336,10.872115760657017],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25867|2023|Ordinary election|1695","CO-ALC-25867|2019|Ordinary election|1696","CO-ALC-25867|2015|Ordinary election|1697"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25867|2023|Ordinary election|1695","CO-ALC-25867|2019|Ordinary election|1696","CO-ALC-25867|2015|Ordinary election|1697"],"shares":[[0.3491005996002665,0.34776815456362425],[0.4946049425687435,0.42359902540898015],[0.46147829487680875,0.35275713727023855]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":83.51332103471432,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[4.397068620919387,8.560959360426383,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,87.04197201865423],null,[0,0,0,0,35.275713727023856,2.8157997653500195,0,0,0,0,61.90848650762612]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25871","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Villagomez","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.477611940298502,10.817455439459131,42.72300469483568],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25871|2023|Ordinary election|1698","CO-ALC-25871|2019|Ordinary election|1699","CO-ALC-25871|2015|Ordinary election|1700"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25871|2023|Ordinary election|1698","CO-ALC-25871|2019|Ordinary election|1699","CO-ALC-25871|2015|Ordinary election|1700"],"shares":[[0.5223880597014925,0.4776119402985075],[0.5439459127228027,0.4357713583282114],[0.621283255086072,0.19405320813771518]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":48.979478672497955,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[1.2292562999385372,0,0,0,43.57713583282114,0,0,0,0,0,55.193607867240324],[62.1283255086072,0,12.050078247261347,6.416275430359938,19.405320813771517,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":79.36542288628995,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25873","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Villapinzon","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[44.64113911872235,13.07084933845497,18.95439377085651],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25873|2023|Ordinary election|1701","CO-ALC-25873|2019|Ordinary election|1702","CO-ALC-25873|2015|Ordinary election|1703"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25873|2023|Ordinary election|1701","CO-ALC-25873|2019|Ordinary election|1702","CO-ALC-25873|2015|Ordinary election|1703"],"shares":[[0.7163748316336348,0.26996344044641135],[0.5548442168160478,0.4241357234314981],[0.47074527252502785,0.28120133481646276]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,0,0,0,24.805339265850947,0,0,0,0,0,75.19466073414905]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25875","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Villeta","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2025,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,2.1609771374882527,32.96019076637743],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2025-11-09 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25875|CO-ALC-25875-2025-11-09-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6784","CO-ALC-25875|2023|Ordinary election|1704","CO-ALC-25875|2019|Ordinary election|1705"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25875|CO-ALC-25875-2025-11-09-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6784","CO-ALC-25875|2023|Ordinary election|1704","CO-ALC-25875|2019|Ordinary election|1705","CO-ALC-25875|2015|Ordinary election|1706"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.19185718759787032,0.1702474162229878],[0.49864211432734984,0.16904020666357553]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[15.515189476980895,0,0,0,1.6849357970560601,10.065768869401817,0,0,0,0,72.73410585656124],[0,4.431343975624296,0,0,7.352454129959595,0,16.904020666357553,4.9678744121348615,0,0,66.34430681592369]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":31.970757387020257,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25878","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Viota","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.627880831928053,49.72012314581585,3.9981687776590853],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25878|2023|Ordinary election|1707","CO-ALC-25878|2019|Ordinary election|1708","CO-ALC-25878|2015|Ordinary election|1709"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25878|2023|Ordinary election|1707","CO-ALC-25878|2019|Ordinary election|1708","CO-ALC-25878|2015|Ordinary election|1709"],"shares":[[0.3239179314221473,0.2976391231028668],[0.6732437727399945,0.17604254128183597],[0.341675568441935,0.30169388066534414]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":15.537088396662535,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,4.9325463743676226,0,0,0,0,95.0674536256324],[0,0,0,0,17.604254128183598,0,0,0,0,0,82.3957458718164],[0.36624446818251183,23.790630245688998,9.217152449259881,0,0,30.169388066534413,0.36624446818251183,0.6867083778422097,0,0,35.40363192430948]],"volatility_latest":17.60425412818361,"volatility_previous":64.59636807569052,"volatility_mean":41.100311101937066,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25885","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Yacopi","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[24.495087336244538,1.2494614390349028,12.46600181323663],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25885|2023|Ordinary election|1710","CO-ALC-25885|2019|Ordinary election|1711","CO-ALC-25885|2015|Ordinary election|1712"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25885|2023|Ordinary election|1710","CO-ALC-25885|2019|Ordinary election|1711","CO-ALC-25885|2015|Ordinary election|1712"],"shares":[[0.576282751091703,0.33133187772925765],[0.48858250753985355,0.4760878931495045],[0.45497129042006645,0.3303112722877002]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":18.40754492609571,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,5.076419213973799,0,0,2.6337336244541483,0,0,0,0,92.28984716157207],[0,0,0,0,0.2728708889846331,0,0,0,0,3.0015797788309637,96.7255493321844],[0,0,0,0,0,3.173164097914778,15.00453309156845,0,0,3.2940465397401026,78.52825627077667]],"volatility_latest":7.710152838427938,"volatility_previous":18.470163950392365,"volatility_mean":13.090158394410151,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25898","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Zipacon","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.5389762462361993,3.7260825780463236,18.634179821551136],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25898|2023|Ordinary election|1713","CO-ALC-25898|2019|Ordinary election|1714","CO-ALC-25898|2015|Ordinary election|1715"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25898|2023|Ordinary election|1713","CO-ALC-25898|2019|Ordinary election|1714","CO-ALC-25898|2015|Ordinary election|1715"],"shares":[[0.29909668785547006,0.28370692539310804],[0.2732460557233971,0.23598522994293386],[0.5696636925188744,0.38332189430336305]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":80.47685748344635,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,12.177985948477751,5.687520910003346,0,0,0,82.1344931415189],[6.478684122188654,0,9.86908358509567,0,0,18.294729775092314,0,9.734810339039946,0,0,55.622692178583414],[0,0,4.701441317776252,0,0,0,38.33218943033631,0,0,0,56.96636925188744]],"volatility_latest":32.19932187293883,"volatility_previous":39.675866503640336,"volatility_mean":35.93759418828958,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-25899","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Zipaquira","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.1093420096223738,2.254988553815096,0.43593989059585425],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-25899|2023|Ordinary election|1716","CO-ALC-25899|2019|Ordinary election|1717","CO-ALC-25899|2015|Ordinary election|1718"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-25899|2023|Ordinary election|1716","CO-ALC-25899|2019|Ordinary election|1717","CO-ALC-25899|2015|Ordinary election|1718"],"shares":[[0.2885846803502821,0.27749126025405835],[0.38576346954593793,0.36321358400778697],[0.3867289837151301,0.38236958480917155]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":93.07152119511231,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-27001","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Quibdo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.195245412636719,5.404884163834044,3.9334852705326213],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-27001|2023|Ordinary election|1719","CO-ALC-27001|2019|Ordinary election|1720","CO-ALC-27001|2015|Ordinary election|1721"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-27001|2023|Ordinary election|1719","CO-ALC-27001|2019|Ordinary election|1720","CO-ALC-27001|2015|Ordinary election|1721"],"shares":[[0.3519840911145259,0.3000316369881587],[0.32193052240784936,0.2678816807695089],[0.5102276244337526,0.47089277172842636]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":74.34019488107246,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,30.00316369881587,0,0,0,35.19840911145259,0.3163698815872729,0,0,0,34.48205730814426],[0,0,0,0,2.1238639377064197,0,2.861551071574938,0,0,8.350811214773028,86.66377377594561],null],"volatility_latest":65.20157281026846,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-27006","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Acandi","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.216208043544,5.659109991603692,13.706293706293707],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-27006|2023|Ordinary election|1722","CO-ALC-27006|2019|Ordinary election|1723","CO-ALC-27006|2015|Ordinary election|1724"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-27006|2023|Ordinary election|1722","CO-ALC-27006|2019|Ordinary election|1723","CO-ALC-27006|2015|Ordinary election|1724"],"shares":[[0.5161778046567886,0.4640157242213486],[0.3961376994122586,0.3395465994962217],[0.3964035964035964,0.25934065934065936]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":69.0095640288156,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.9806471121862717,51.61778046567886,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,46.40157242213486],[0,39.61376994122586,0,2.0990764063811924,1.3602015113350125,0,0,0,0,0,56.92695214105794],[0,11.368631368631368,0,39.64035964035964,0,0,0.23976023976023977,0,0,0,48.75124875124875]],"volatility_latest":13.984657636639277,"volatility_previous":37.78104347373869,"volatility_mean":25.882850555188984,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-27025","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Alto Baudo (Pie De Pato)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.609863394304242,14.37864209242445,19.68810916179337],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-27025|2023|Ordinary election|1725","CO-ALC-27025|2019|Ordinary election|1726","CO-ALC-27025|2015|Ordinary election|1727"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-27025|2023|Ordinary election|1725","CO-ALC-27025|2019|Ordinary election|1726","CO-ALC-27025|2015|Ordinary election|1727"],"shares":[[0.5547580458439454,0.408659411900903],[0.45331345710800924,0.30952703618376476],[0.5596166341780378,0.362735542560104]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":24.758392097553926,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,40.8659411900903,0,0,3.519333178976615,0,0,0,0,55.61472563093309],[0,0.2168315489903781,0,10.082667028052581,0.09486380268329042,0,0.013551971811898631,30.952703618376475,0,0.12196774630708768,58.51741428377829],[0,0,0,0,0.17868745938921377,0,2.046783625730994,0,0.43859649122807015,3.5412605588044186,93.7946718648473]],"volatility_latest":44.38527436906691,"volatility_previous":41.252202195419436,"volatility_mean":42.818738282243174,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-27050","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Atrato (Yuto)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.73565076798706,8.94396551724138,7.183513248282633],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-27050|2023|Ordinary election|1728","CO-ALC-27050|2019|Ordinary election|1729","CO-ALC-27050|2015|Ordinary election|1730"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-27050|2023|Ordinary election|1728","CO-ALC-27050|2019|Ordinary election|1729","CO-ALC-27050|2015|Ordinary election|1730"],"shares":[[0.43637833468067905,0.32902182700080845],[0.43085488505747127,0.34141522988505746],[0.3079489695780177,0.23611383709519135]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":50.78534279603544,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,32.90218270008084,0,0,67.09781729991916],[0,0,0,43.08548850574713,0,0,0,0,0,0,56.91451149425288],[7.8508341511285575,0,0,30.794896957801768,0,13.699705593719333,0,19.86261040235525,0,0.13738959764474976,27.654563297350343]],"volatility_latest":43.08548850574712,"volatility_previous":41.550539744847896,"volatility_mean":42.31801412529751,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-27073","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Bagado","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.6515906477577644,21.773336168403148,4.123501929717651],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-27073|2023|Ordinary election|1731","CO-ALC-27073|2019|Ordinary election|1732","CO-ALC-27073|2015|Ordinary election|1733"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-27073|2023|Ordinary election|1731","CO-ALC-27073|2019|Ordinary election|1732","CO-ALC-27073|2015|Ordinary election|1733"],"shares":[[0.32809505557684937,0.3215791490992717],[0.4894748033170317,0.2717414416330002],[0.3146455413365834,0.27341052203940686]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":63.32347283926316,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.6255270218474513,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,97.37447297815255],[0.1488411652136934,48.94748033170317,0,0,0,27.17414416330002,0,22.60259408887944,0,0,1.1269402509036786],[20.61750964858826,0,0,0,0.4875076173065204,18.70810481413772,0,0,0,0,60.18687791996751]],"volatility_latest":98.72421858388263,"volatility_previous":80.01611376974492,"volatility_mean":89.37016617681377,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-27075","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Bahia Solano (Mutis)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.853797141381094,14.630923164055126,8.884688090737242],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-27075|2023|Ordinary election|1734","CO-ALC-27075|2019|Ordinary election|1735","CO-ALC-27075|2015|Ordinary election|1736"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-27075|2023|Ordinary election|1734","CO-ALC-27075|2019|Ordinary election|1735","CO-ALC-27075|2015|Ordinary election|1736"],"shares":[[0.5278112622696746,0.4592732908558636],[0.5622050217104021,0.41589579006985083],[0.5444234404536862,0.45557655954631376]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":53.049879784405405,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,45.92732908558636,0,52.78112622696745,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.2915446874461856],[0,56.22050217104021,0,0,0,1.868982442892203,0,0.3209363790824995,0,0,41.58957900698508],[0,45.55765595463138,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,54.44234404536862]],"volatility_latest":52.78112622696745,"volatility_previous":12.852765038383536,"volatility_mean":32.81694563267549,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-27077","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Bajo Baudo (Pizarro)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.557973599714593,28.70203450939995,2.517347103437146],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-27077|2023|Ordinary election|1737","CO-ALC-27077|2019|Ordinary election|1738","CO-ALC-27077|2015|Ordinary election|1739"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-27077|2023|Ordinary election|1737","CO-ALC-27077|2019|Ordinary election|1738","CO-ALC-27077|2015|Ordinary election|1739"],"shares":[[0.5621358068735879,0.43655607087644194],[0.6404841617306206,0.35346381663662113],[0.5118605776988866,0.4866871066645151]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":18.014353885037725,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0.6052021632758177,64.04841617306207,0,0,0,0,35.346381663662115,0,0,0],[0,0,48.66871066645151,0.14523156365983542,0,0,0,0,0,0,51.186057769888656]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":51.33128933354849,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-27099","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Bojaya (Bellavista)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.935566597211093,11.996873778819847,8.018867924528301],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-27099|2023|Ordinary election|1740","CO-ALC-27099|2019|Ordinary election|1741","CO-ALC-27099|2015|Ordinary election|1742"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-27099|2023|Ordinary election|1740","CO-ALC-27099|2019|Ordinary election|1741","CO-ALC-27099|2015|Ordinary election|1742"],"shares":[[0.5896778329860555,0.4103221670139445],[0.5580304806565064,0.43806174286830796],[0.4155435759209344,0.3353548966756514]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":24.188555577872805,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,58.967783298605546,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,41.032216701394454],[0,55.80304806565064,0,0.17584994138335286,0,0,0,0,0,0,44.021101992966],[0,33.53548966756514,41.55435759209344,0,0,0,0,24.752920035938903,0,0,0.15723270440251572]],"volatility_latest":3.1647352329549028,"volatility_previous":66.30727762803234,"volatility_mean":34.73600643049362,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-27135","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"El Canton Del San Pablo (Man.","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.445914029286726,5.3125,19.517345399698343],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-27135|2023|Ordinary election|1743","CO-ALC-27135|2019|Ordinary election|1744","CO-ALC-27135|2015|Ordinary election|1745"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-27135|2023|Ordinary election|1743","CO-ALC-27135|2019|Ordinary election|1744","CO-ALC-27135|2015|Ordinary election|1745"],"shares":[[0.5321209258384506,0.34766178554558336],[0.5265625,0.4734375],[0.4766214177978884,0.281447963800905]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":26.934835212290654,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,11.785545583372697,0,34.76617855455834,0,0,0,0,53.44827586206897],[0,47.34375,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.65625],[0,28.144796380090497,47.66214177978884,24.132730015082956,0,0,0.06033182503770739,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":47.34375,"volatility_previous":71.8552036199095,"volatility_mean":59.59947680995475,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-27150","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Carmen Del Darien","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.7385028533064784,36.698983211161035,7.142857142857139],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-27150|2023|Ordinary election|1746","CO-ALC-27150|2019|Ordinary election|1747","CO-ALC-27150|2015|Ordinary election|1748"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-27150|2023|Ordinary election|1746","CO-ALC-27150|2019|Ordinary election|1747","CO-ALC-27150|2015|Ordinary election|1748"],"shares":[[0.40600872776099367,0.39862369922792884],[0.6755734216126744,0.30858358950106407],[0.47929171668667464,0.40786314525810324]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":39.16458805191044,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,39.86236992279289,0,0,0,0,8.72776099362202,0,0,0,51.4098690835851],[0,67.55734216126744,0,0,0.14187751241428234,1.4424213762118705,0,0,0,0,30.858358950106407],[0,40.786314525810326,0.15006002400960383,47.929171668667465,0,10.984393757503002,0.15006002400960383,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":29.27927112710071,"volatility_previous":57.771264097977806,"volatility_mean":43.52526761253926,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-27160","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Certegui","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.6645161290322577,23.72222222222222,1.9974226804123703],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-27160|2023|Ordinary election|1749","CO-ALC-27160|2019|Ordinary election|1750","CO-ALC-27160|2015|Ordinary election|1751"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-27160|2023|Ordinary election|1749","CO-ALC-27160|2019|Ordinary election|1750","CO-ALC-27160|2015|Ordinary election|1751"],"shares":[[0.36206451612903223,0.32541935483870965],[0.6169444444444444,0.37972222222222224],[0.41365979381443296,0.39368556701030927]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":52.42440693936371,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,32.541935483870965,0,31.225806451612904,0,0.025806451612903226,0,0,0,0,36.20645161290322],[0,0,0,0,0.3333333333333333,0,0,0,0,0,99.66666666666666],[0,0,0,0,19.201030927835053,0,0,0,0,0,80.79896907216494]],"volatility_latest":63.79354838709677,"volatility_previous":18.86769759450172,"volatility_mean":41.33062299079924,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-27205","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Condoto","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.741314735890484,17.74216626126771,11.235955056179776],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-27205|2023|Ordinary election|1752","CO-ALC-27205|2019|Ordinary election|1753","CO-ALC-27205|2015|Ordinary election|1754"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-27205|2023|Ordinary election|1752","CO-ALC-27205|2019|Ordinary election|1753","CO-ALC-27205|2015|Ordinary election|1754"],"shares":[[0.6027379568642646,0.3953248095053597],[0.4797538989841179,0.3023322363714408],[0.5561797752808989,0.4438202247191011]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":5.544828872337105,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.19372336303758234,39.53248095053597,60.27379568642645,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[30.233223637144082,47.97538989841179,0,0,2.23207898125626,0,0,1.8600658177135498,0,0,17.699241665474318],[44.38202247191011,0,0,55.61797752808989,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":60.27379568642645,"volatility_previous":69.76677636285592,"volatility_mean":65.0202860246412,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-27245","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"El Carmen","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.901794924695686,0.35194744251525023,2.490525175961018],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-27245|2023|Ordinary election|1755","CO-ALC-27245|2019|Ordinary election|1756","CO-ALC-27245|2015|Ordinary election|1757"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-27245|2023|Ordinary election|1755","CO-ALC-27245|2019|Ordinary election|1756","CO-ALC-27245|2015|Ordinary election|1757"],"shares":[[0.45038167938931295,0.3713637301423561],[0.31440638198029097,0.3108869075551384],[0.3770979967514889,0.35219274499187875]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":74.52143147415956,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,45.038167938931295,0,0,0.04126263668248401,0,0,0,0.22694450175366207,0,54.69362492263255],[8.235570154856875,0,31.440638198029095,0,0,0.44580009385265135,3.073674331299859,0,0,0,56.80431722196152],[3.979426096372496,35.219274499187875,0,19.24742826204656,0,0,3.84407146724418,0,0,0,37.70979967514889]],"volatility_latest":45.30637507736744,"volatility_previous":55.23709989717875,"volatility_mean":50.2717374872731,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-27250","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"El Litoral Del San Juan","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.97675879396985,5.426207427361938,0.3446691176470651],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-27250|2023|Ordinary election|1758","CO-ALC-27250|2019|Ordinary election|1759","CO-ALC-27250|2015|Ordinary election|1760"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-27250|2023|Ordinary election|1758","CO-ALC-27250|2019|Ordinary election|1759","CO-ALC-27250|2015|Ordinary election|1760"],"shares":[[0.5535489949748744,0.4437814070351759],[0.43390417548585725,0.37964210121223785],[0.497702205882353,0.4942555147058823]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":58.75807791822402,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,44.37814070351759,0,0,0,0,0,0,55.62185929648241],[0.23090244371752935,43.390417548585724,0,0,0,37.964210121223786,18.414469886472965,0,0,0,0],[49.42555147058823,0,0,0.8042279411764706,0,0,49.7702205882353,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":100.0,"volatility_previous":81.3546276698095,"volatility_mean":90.67731383490475,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-27361","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Istmina","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.997128499641065,3.3189486072969814,18.997175141242938],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-27361|2023|Ordinary election|1761","CO-ALC-27361|2019|Ordinary election|1762","CO-ALC-27361|2015|Ordinary election|1763"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-27361|2023|Ordinary election|1761","CO-ALC-27361|2019|Ordinary election|1762","CO-ALC-27361|2015|Ordinary election|1763"],"shares":[[0.4410624551328069,0.26109117013639627],[0.4817575519811691,0.4485680659081993],[0.4778425141242938,0.2878707627118644]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":31.531604019509874,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.7587939698492463,26.109117013639626,0,44.10624551328069,0,0.9404163675520459,0,0.9188801148600143,0,0,26.166547020818378],[5.53942722636328,48.17575519811691,0,0,0,1.4280109846998823,0,0,0,0,44.85680659081993],[15.430790960451978,47.78425141242938,0,0,0,7.221045197740113,0,0,0,0,29.56391242937853]],"volatility_latest":45.02512562814071,"volatility_previous":15.68439794712893,"volatility_mean":30.354761787634818,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-27372","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Jurado","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.4225352112676,4.2201834862385255,8.22249093107618],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-27372|2023|Ordinary election|1764","CO-ALC-27372|2019|Ordinary election|1765","CO-ALC-27372|2015|Ordinary election|1766"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-27372|2023|Ordinary election|1764","CO-ALC-27372|2019|Ordinary election|1765","CO-ALC-27372|2015|Ordinary election|1766"],"shares":[[0.552112676056338,0.447887323943662],[0.5211009174311926,0.47889908256880737],[0.5411124546553809,0.4588875453446191]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":58.29087367130133,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,52.11009174311926,47.88990825688074,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[0,45.88875453446191,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,54.11124546553809]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":54.11124546553809,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-27413","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Lloro","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.34090909090909,2.345679012345677,11.789924973204712],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-27413|2023|Ordinary election|1767","CO-ALC-27413|2019|Ordinary election|1768","CO-ALC-27413|2015|Ordinary election|1769"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-27413|2023|Ordinary election|1767","CO-ALC-27413|2019|Ordinary election|1768","CO-ALC-27413|2015|Ordinary election|1769"],"shares":[[0.4030844155844156,0.2996753246753247],[0.40205761316872424,0.3786008230452675],[0.440085744908896,0.3221864951768489]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":59.56379172215186,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,29.642857142857142,0,0,0,0,0,29.967532467532468,0,0,40.38961038961039],[10.493827160493828,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2.1810699588477367,87.32510288065845],[0,44.0085744908896,32.21864951768489,0,0,0.30010718113612006,0,0,0,0,23.472668810289388]],"volatility_latest":59.61038961038962,"volatility_previous":76.52733118971061,"volatility_mean":68.06886040005011,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-27425","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Medio Atrato (Bete)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.47920260686218086,9.94959456497918,15.025353616226312],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-27425|2023|Ordinary election|1770","CO-ALC-27425|2019|Ordinary election|1771","CO-ALC-27425|2015|Ordinary election|1772"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-27425|2023|Ordinary election|1770","CO-ALC-27425|2019|Ordinary election|1771","CO-ALC-27425|2015|Ordinary election|1772"],"shares":[[0.4147977764999042,0.41000575043128235],[0.4008327854481701,0.3013368397983783],[0.5751267680811316,0.42487323191886844]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":76.12532352383154,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,41.47977764999042,0,17.51964730688135,0,0,0,0,0,0,41.00057504312824],[0,29.783037475345168,0,30.133683979837826,0,0,0,40.083278544817006,0,0,0],null],"volatility_latest":52.697315217773486,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-27430","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Medio Baudo (Puerto Meluk)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.677848467322157,5.713378828757342,13.470013412531138],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-27430|2023|Ordinary election|1773","CO-ALC-27430|2019|Ordinary election|1774","CO-ALC-27430|2015|Ordinary election|1775"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-27430|2023|Ordinary election|1773","CO-ALC-27430|2019|Ordinary election|1774","CO-ALC-27430|2015|Ordinary election|1775"],"shares":[[0.5355696934644303,0.45879120879120877],[0.527852721790192,0.4707189335026186],[0.49741329756658365,0.3627131634412723]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":61.66137964863194,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,45.879120879120876,0,0.31810294968189706,0,0,0,0,0,0,53.80277617119723],[0,52.7852721790192,0,47.07189335026186,0.14283447071893351,0,0,0,0,0,0],[0,36.27131634412723,13.987353899214408,49.74132975665837,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":53.80277617119723,"volatility_previous":16.65679030561091,"volatility_mean":35.22978323840407,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-27450","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Medio San Juan","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[21.20877096001474,1.354903943377149,22.20162224797219],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-27450|2023|Ordinary election|1776","CO-ALC-27450|2019|Ordinary election|1777","CO-ALC-27450|2015|Ordinary election|1778"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-27450|2023|Ordinary election|1776","CO-ALC-27450|2019|Ordinary election|1777","CO-ALC-27450|2015|Ordinary election|1778"],"shares":[[0.5876174682144831,0.37552975861433574],[0.19211324570273003,0.17856420626895855],[0.4869061413673233,0.2648899188876014]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":23.24052008090397,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,3.6852773171181132,0,0,96.3147226828819],[0,10.717896865520729,0,16.238624873609705,0,0,8.695652173913043,0,0,17.856420626895854,46.49140546006066],[0.30127462340672073,0,1.0196987253765932,0,0,48.69061413673233,22.896871378910777,0.13904982618771727,0.46349942062572425,0,26.48899188876014]],"volatility_latest":53.50859453993934,"volatility_previous":64.81535593732681,"volatility_mean":59.161975238633076,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-27491","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Novita","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.562574493444572,1.033120632026737,6.889226100151745],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-27491|2023|Ordinary election|1779","CO-ALC-27491|2019|Ordinary election|1780","CO-ALC-27491|2015|Ordinary election|1781"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-27491|2023|Ordinary election|1779","CO-ALC-27491|2019|Ordinary election|1780","CO-ALC-27491|2015|Ordinary election|1781"],"shares":[[0.5628128724672229,0.43718712753277716],[0.44545730780917653,0.4351261014889091],[0.4658573596358119,0.3969650986342944]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":57.317982521550306,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,43.718712753277714,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,56.281287246722286],[11.121239744758432,43.512610148890914,0,0,0,0.8204193254329991,0,0,0,0,44.54573078091765],[46.585735963581186,39.69650986342944,13.657056145675266,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06069802731411229]],"volatility_latest":11.941659070191433,"volatility_previous":49.121552364498015,"volatility_mean":30.531605717344725,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-27495","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Nuqui","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.481691795574704,1.1585642889595604,11.37951105937136],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-27495|2023|Ordinary election|1782","CO-ALC-27495|2019|Ordinary election|1783","CO-ALC-27495|2015|Ordinary election|1784"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-27495|2023|Ordinary election|1782","CO-ALC-27495|2019|Ordinary election|1783","CO-ALC-27495|2015|Ordinary election|1784"],"shares":[[0.4846289406696691,0.2798120227139221],[0.3237164925034075,0.31213084961381193],[0.5550058207217695,0.44121071012805585]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":31.12732265015087,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,48.46289406696691,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,51.53710593303309],[0,32.37164925034075,31.213084961381192,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,36.415265788278056],[0,0.37834691501746215,55.50058207217695,44.12107101280559,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":31.213084961381192,"volatility_previous":68.40856812360134,"volatility_mean":49.81082654249127,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-27580","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Rio Iro","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[25.262526252625264,14.500941619585689,32.13988343047461],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-27580|2023|Ordinary election|1785","CO-ALC-27580|2019|Ordinary election|1786","CO-ALC-27580|2015|Ordinary election|1787"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-27580|2023|Ordinary election|1785","CO-ALC-27580|2019|Ordinary election|1786","CO-ALC-27580|2015|Ordinary election|1787"],"shares":[[0.6261626162616262,0.37353735373537356],[0.5725047080979284,0.4274952919020716],[0.6598667776852624,0.3384679433805162]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,37.353735373537354,0,62.61626162616262,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.030003000300030003],[0,57.250470809792844,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,42.749529190207156],[33.84679433805162,0,0,0.16652789342214822,0,0,0,0,0,0,65.98667776852623]],"volatility_latest":62.61626162616262,"volatility_previous":57.250470809792844,"volatility_mean":59.933366217977735,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-27600","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Rio Quito (Paimado)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.47057820228552,20.016028851933477,10.271139705882355],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-27600|2023|Ordinary election|1788","CO-ALC-27600|2019|Ordinary election|1789","CO-ALC-27600|2015|Ordinary election|1790"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-27600|2023|Ordinary election|1788","CO-ALC-27600|2019|Ordinary election|1789","CO-ALC-27600|2015|Ordinary election|1790"],"shares":[[0.3325942350332594,0.2578884530104042],[0.4774594269685434,0.27729913844920856],[0.43014705882352944,0.32743566176470584]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":42.428652262302045,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,33.25942350332594,0,0,0,25.78884530104042,0,0,40.951731195633634],[0.5610098176718092,23.802845121218194,0,0,0,27.72991384492086,0.16028851933480265,0,0,0,47.745942696854335],[32.74356617647059,23.920036764705884,43.01470588235294,0,0,0.25275735294117646,0,0,0,0,0.06893382352941177]],"volatility_latest":59.048268804366366,"volatility_previous":75.3144538846394,"volatility_mean":67.18136134450289,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-27615","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Riosucio","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.407358328786348,9.895399426085348,7.038161890928301],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-27615|2023|Ordinary election|1791","CO-ALC-27615|2019|Ordinary election|1792","CO-ALC-27615|2015|Ordinary election|1793"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-27615|2023|Ordinary election|1791","CO-ALC-27615|2019|Ordinary election|1792","CO-ALC-27615|2015|Ordinary election|1793"],"shares":[[0.37937485384675346,0.31530127055889],[0.45839118763306486,0.3594371933722114],[0.44764294203089927,0.37726132312161625]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":62.41574492904879,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-27660","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"San Jose Del Palmar","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.845263919016631,2.0081814801041276,16.3457599344531],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-27660|2023|Ordinary election|1794","CO-ALC-27660|2019|Ordinary election|1795","CO-ALC-27660|2015|Ordinary election|1796"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-27660|2023|Ordinary election|1794","CO-ALC-27660|2019|Ordinary election|1795","CO-ALC-27660|2015|Ordinary election|1796"],"shares":[[0.5267534345625452,0.4483007953723789],[0.49460766084046115,0.4745258460394199],[0.5817287996722655,0.4182712003277345]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":65.27905605556737,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[52.67534345625452,0,0,0.10845986984815618,0,2.3499638467100508,0,0.036153289949385395,0,0,44.830079537237886],[49.460766084046114,47.452584603941986,0,0,0.5206396429899591,0,0,0,0,0,2.566009669021941],[41.82712003277345,0,0,0,0,0,58.17287996722655,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":47.97322424693194,"volatility_previous":58.17287996722655,"volatility_mean":53.07305210707925,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-27745","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Sipi","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.56932966023875,12.887596899224803,42.66666666666667],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-27745|2023|Ordinary election|1797","CO-ALC-27745|2019|Ordinary election|1798","CO-ALC-27745|2015|Ordinary election|1799"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-27745|2023|Ordinary election|1797","CO-ALC-27745|2019|Ordinary election|1798","CO-ALC-27745|2015|Ordinary election|1799"],"shares":[[0.5987144168962351,0.3930211202938476],[0.4060077519379845,0.2771317829457364],[0.706060606060606,0.27939393939393936]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.5509641873278237,59.87144168962351,0,39.30211202938476,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.27548209366391185],[15.794573643410853,27.713178294573645,0,40.60077519379845,0,0,0,0,0,0,15.891472868217054],[1.4545454545454546,0,0,27.939393939393938,0,0,0,0,0,0,70.60606060606061]],"volatility_latest":32.158263395049865,"volatility_previous":54.71458773784356,"volatility_mean":43.436425566446715,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-27787","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Tado","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.553175375960187,0.09426181218334051,15.604395604395606],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-27787|2023|Ordinary election|1800","CO-ALC-27787|2019|Ordinary election|1801","CO-ALC-27787|2015|Ordinary election|1802"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-27787|2023|Ordinary election|1800","CO-ALC-27787|2019|Ordinary election|1801","CO-ALC-27787|2015|Ordinary election|1802"],"shares":[[0.54592664719247,0.4503948934328681],[0.25757040179097446,0.256627783669141],[0.5780219780219781,0.421978021978022]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":63.39688335164663,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,54.592664719247,0,0.09737098344693282,0.07573298712539218,0,0,0,0,0,45.234231310180675],[22.4107458465889,0,0,0,0,25.662778366914104,0.08247908566042182,0.22387180393543066,0,0,51.620124896901146],null],"volatility_latest":54.765768689819325,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-27800","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Unguia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.778281226400846,22.45279491493737,2.86320254506893],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-27800|2023|Ordinary election|1803","CO-ALC-27800|2019|Ordinary election|1804","CO-ALC-27800|2015|Ordinary election|1805"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-27800|2023|Ordinary election|1803","CO-ALC-27800|2019|Ordinary election|1804","CO-ALC-27800|2015|Ordinary election|1805"],"shares":[[0.32759401903035795,0.2498112067663495],[0.4821461955505702,0.25761824640119646],[0.37857900318133614,0.34994697773064687]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":41.554362675856936,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,21.52242863615768,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,78.47757136384232],[0,25.76182464011965,0,15.311273135165452,3.122078893251075,3.215554309216676,0,0,0,4.2250888016451675,48.36418022060198],[0,3.732767762460233,34.994697773064686,12.555673382820785,0,0,0.8907741251325557,0,0,0,47.826086956521735]],"volatility_latest":30.113391143240335,"volatility_previous":35.885471898197245,"volatility_mean":32.99943152071879,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-27810","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Union Panamericana (Las Animas","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.89674036927285,1.5244652077698504,1.4620689655172399],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-27810|2023|Ordinary election|1806","CO-ALC-27810|2019|Ordinary election|1807","CO-ALC-27810|2015|Ordinary election|1808"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-27810|2023|Ordinary election|1806","CO-ALC-27810|2019|Ordinary election|1807","CO-ALC-27810|2015|Ordinary election|1808"],"shares":[[0.4834739001595624,0.29450649646683386],[0.5060240963855421,0.49077944430784365],[0.43282758620689654,0.41820689655172416]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":40.29204659776805,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,29.450649646683384,20.925461591064508,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,49.62388876225211],null,[0,0,3.5586206896551724,0,0,0,11.337931034482759,0,0,0,85.10344827586206]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41001","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Neiva","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[27.173790299813678,15.886797092737307,13.621940006498491],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41001|2023|Ordinary election|1809","CO-ALC-41001|2019|Ordinary election|1810","CO-ALC-41001|2015|Ordinary election|1811"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41001|2023|Ordinary election|1809","CO-ALC-41001|2019|Ordinary election|1810","CO-ALC-41001|2015|Ordinary election|1811"],"shares":[[0.40270171080119704,0.13096380780306024],[0.4319293404011148,0.27306136947374177],[0.512855256517501,0.37663585645251607]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,8.547654000338772,0,0,0,91.45234599966123],[4.289168807038636,0,0,0,12.75889392862998,0,0,0.8443084321547626,0,0,82.10762883217663],[0,37.66358564525161,0,0,0,51.2855256517501,0,0,0,0,11.050888702998293]],"volatility_latest":17.892371167823377,"volatility_previous":88.9491112970017,"volatility_mean":53.42074123241254,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41006","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Acevedo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.792613850917601,14.261206832251812,1.73616745091676],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41006|2023|Ordinary election|1812","CO-ALC-41006|2019|Ordinary election|1813","CO-ALC-41006|2015|Ordinary election|1814"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41006|2023|Ordinary election|1812","CO-ALC-41006|2019|Ordinary election|1813","CO-ALC-41006|2015|Ordinary election|1814"],"shares":[[0.3738388339249301,0.3159126954157541],[0.3926307152979787,0.25001864697546056],[0.3698685705013792,0.35250689599221163]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":60.362264473411095,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,14.213427988822597,0,0,0,0,0,0,85.7865720111774],[0,0,0,0,5.3181174013575,0,0,25.001864697546058,0,0,69.68001790109645],[0,0,0,0,0,15.438909621937368,0,0,0,0,84.56109037806263]],"volatility_latest":30.31998209890355,"volatility_previous":30.319982098903555,"volatility_mean":30.31998209890355,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41013","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Agrado","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.208045783538125,2.81320985497117,9.745008895038545],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41013|2023|Ordinary election|1815","CO-ALC-41013|2019|Ordinary election|1816","CO-ALC-41013|2015|Ordinary election|1817"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41013|2023|Ordinary election|1815","CO-ALC-41013|2019|Ordinary election|1816","CO-ALC-41013|2015|Ordinary election|1817"],"shares":[[0.48190540313078606,0.43982494529540483],[0.47876987593919274,0.450637777389481],[0.5048428543190354,0.40739276536864993]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":78.2835434194096,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[43.98249452954048,48.19054031307861,0,5.85759973068507,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.9693654266958425],[47.876987593919274,0,0,0,6.203040363445745,0,0,0,0,0,45.91997204263498],[50.48428543190354,0,0,0,2.530144297291955,6.246293733939514,0,0,0,0,40.73927653686499]],"volatility_latest":54.048140043763674,"volatility_previous":8.853591571923777,"volatility_mean":31.450865807843726,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41016","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Aipe","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.2758201701093554,9.655607645149658,11.75501801338137],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41016|2023|Ordinary election|1818","CO-ALC-41016|2019|Ordinary election|1819","CO-ALC-41016|2015|Ordinary election|1820"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41016|2023|Ordinary election|1818","CO-ALC-41016|2019|Ordinary election|1819","CO-ALC-41016|2015|Ordinary election|1820"],"shares":[[0.3477694844645027,0.33501128276340914],[0.4314821492967905,0.3349260728452939],[0.41276376737004633,0.29521358723623264]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":75.81161901525675,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,34.77694844645027,0,0,0,0,0,0,65.22305155354974],[22.232239451857193,0.09015506671474936,43.14821492967905,33.49260728452939,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.0367832672196178],[0,41.27637673700463,7.812660833762223,15.470921255790016,0,0,29.521358723623262,0,0,0,5.918682449819866]],"volatility_latest":65.470609448251,"volatility_previous":75.5894795765134,"volatility_mean":70.5300445123822,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41020","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Algeciras","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.981010916429689,27.118644067796616,1.950392198431203],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41020|2023|Ordinary election|1821","CO-ALC-41020|2019|Ordinary election|1822","CO-ALC-41020|2015|Ordinary election|1823"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41020|2023|Ordinary election|1821","CO-ALC-41020|2019|Ordinary election|1822","CO-ALC-41020|2015|Ordinary election|1823"],"shares":[[0.5134391340244014,0.4436290248601045],[0.6331214689265537,0.36193502824858753],[0.48547805808776767,0.4659741361034556]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":37.40380504980041,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,51.343913402440144,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,48.656086597559856],[0,36.193502824858754,0,0,0,0,0,0.4943502824858757,0,0,63.31214689265537],[0,46.59741361034556,0,0,0,4.8547805808776765,0,0,0,0,48.547805808776765]],"volatility_latest":15.15041057758139,"volatility_previous":15.258691366364483,"volatility_mean":15.204550971972935,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41026","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Altamira","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.523148148148152,8.785120696478039,6.137865911237014],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41026|2023|Ordinary election|1824","CO-ALC-41026|2019|Ordinary election|1825","CO-ALC-41026|2015|Ordinary election|1826"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41026|2023|Ordinary election|1824","CO-ALC-41026|2019|Ordinary election|1825","CO-ALC-41026|2015|Ordinary election|1826"],"shares":[[0.4162808641975309,0.34104938271604934],[0.5009893153937476,0.41313810842896714],[0.5306893295561851,0.4693106704438149]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":61.18394155521998,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,41.62808641975309,0,16.628086419753085,0,0,0,0,0,0,41.74382716049382],[0,0,0,0,0.7123070834982193,0,7.8749505342303125,0,0,0,91.41274238227146],[46.93106704438149,53.06893295561851,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":58.25617283950617,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":79.12808641975309,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41078","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Baraya","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.610604998832045,9.060240963855424,24.006077487971638],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41078|2023|Ordinary election|1827","CO-ALC-41078|2019|Ordinary election|1828","CO-ALC-41078|2015|Ordinary election|1829"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41078|2023|Ordinary election|1827","CO-ALC-41078|2019|Ordinary election|1828","CO-ALC-41078|2015|Ordinary election|1829"],"shares":[[0.48586778790002333,0.4197617379117029],[0.339277108433735,0.24867469879518073],[0.44669536591542164,0.20663459103570525]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":54.57478481373491,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0.1635131978509694,0,48.586778790002334,0,0,0,0,0,0,51.2497080121467],[12.987951807228916,24.867469879518072,0,33.9277108433735,0,23.6144578313253,2.5060240963855422,0.024096385542168676,0,0,2.072289156626506],[3.469232717143581,20.663459103570524,14.180805267156241,44.66953659154216,0,10.559635350721702,0,4.507470245631805,0,1.9498607242339834,0]],"volatility_latest":63.83648680214903,"volatility_previous":31.355865599648528,"volatility_mean":47.59617620089878,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41132","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Campoalegre","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.381356991128328,4.516923076923078,9.778933680104032],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41132|2023|Ordinary election|1830","CO-ALC-41132|2019|Ordinary election|1831","CO-ALC-41132|2015|Ordinary election|1832"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41132|2023|Ordinary election|1830","CO-ALC-41132|2019|Ordinary election|1831","CO-ALC-41132|2015|Ordinary election|1832"],"shares":[[0.3946020242409097,0.23078845432962639],[0.39421538461538463,0.34904615384615384],[0.3527958387516255,0.25500650195058516]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":39.19107757117839,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,21.554417093589905,0,6.147694614519555,0,0,0,0,0.3061351993002624,0,71.99175309259029],[7.975384615384615,0,0,7.052307692307692,2.3261538461538462,0,0,0,0,0,82.64615384615385],[0,25.50065019505852,14.648894668400521,0,20.286085825747723,3.426527958387516,0,0,0.8582574772431729,0,35.27958387516255]],"volatility_latest":21.860552292890166,"volatility_previous":62.394262278683605,"volatility_mean":42.12740728578689,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41206","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Colombia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.576431808817471,32.00677392040643,3.1104199066874045],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41206|2023|Ordinary election|1833","CO-ALC-41206|2019|Ordinary election|1834","CO-ALC-41206|2015|Ordinary election|1835"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41206|2023|Ordinary election|1833","CO-ALC-41206|2019|Ordinary election|1834","CO-ALC-41206|2015|Ordinary election|1835"],"shares":[[0.38174701277297074,0.24598269468479603],[0.6600338696020321,0.33996613039796786],[0.4105754276827372,0.37947122861586313]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":9.705333739594247,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[24.598269468479604,38.174701277297075,0,16.089822826534817,0,0.7210548001648125,0,0,0,0,20.416151627523693],[0,33.996613039796785,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,66.00338696020322],[3.1104199066874028,41.05754276827372,0.02221728504776716,37.947122861586315,0.19995556542990447,17.662741612974894,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":45.587235332679526,"volatility_previous":66.00338696020322,"volatility_mean":55.79531114644137,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41244","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Elias","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[54.72996216030272,4.095163806552264,18.851132686084142],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41244|2023|Ordinary election|1836","CO-ALC-41244|2019|Ordinary election|1837","CO-ALC-41244|2015|Ordinary election|1838"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41244|2023|Ordinary election|1836","CO-ALC-41244|2019|Ordinary election|1837","CO-ALC-41244|2015|Ordinary election|1838"],"shares":[[0.7554179566563468,0.2081183350533196],[0.375585023400936,0.33463338533541337],[0.5942556634304207,0.4057443365695793]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,75.54179566563468,0,0,0,0,3.646370829033368,0,0,0,20.811833505331958],[28.978159126365053,0,0,0,33.46333853354134,37.558502340093604,0,0,0,0,0],[40.57443365695793,0,0,59.42556634304207,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":100.0,"volatility_previous":71.02184087363494,"volatility_mean":85.51092043681747,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41298","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Garzon","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.594325897187197,15.927569563668165,4.467639410574979],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41298|2023|Ordinary election|1839","CO-ALC-41298|2019|Ordinary election|1840","CO-ALC-41298|2015|Ordinary election|1841"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41298|2023|Ordinary election|1839","CO-ALC-41298|2019|Ordinary election|1840","CO-ALC-41298|2015|Ordinary election|1841"],"shares":[[0.27909796314258,0.2631547041707081],[0.4565773703475754,0.29730167471089375],[0.32949292112106326,0.2848165270153135]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":69.09184825764866,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,27.909796314258003,0,0,0,1.7489088263821533,26.315470417070806,0,0,0,44.02582444228904],[0,0,5.749732758899938,0,45.65773703475754,29.730167471089374,0,0.9037608111172297,0,17.702698325289106,0.2559035988468142],[22.33097370702109,0,3.586391216411442,11.795723779254551,28.48165270153135,32.94929211210633,0,0,0,0.8559664836752384,0]],"volatility_latest":97.99518757477104,"volatility_previous":37.3458221272926,"volatility_mean":67.67050485103182,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41306","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Gigante","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2026,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,18.296089385474858,10.66350710900474],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2026-06-07 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41306|CO-ALC-41306-2026-06-07-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6776","CO-ALC-41306|2023|Ordinary election|1842","CO-ALC-41306|2019|Ordinary election|1843"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41306|CO-ALC-41306-2026-06-07-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6776","CO-ALC-41306|2023|Ordinary election|1842","CO-ALC-41306|2019|Ordinary election|1843","CO-ALC-41306|2015|Ordinary election|1844"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.43668528864059586,0.2537243947858473],[0.37508463100880163,0.26844955991875424]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,15.301286391333784,0,26.844955991875423,0,37.508463100880164,0,0,0,0,20.34529451591063]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41319","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Guadalupe","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.487922705314013,6.1126920887877105,12.783053323593862],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41319|2023|Ordinary election|1845","CO-ALC-41319|2019|Ordinary election|1846","CO-ALC-41319|2015|Ordinary election|1847"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41319|2023|Ordinary election|1845","CO-ALC-41319|2019|Ordinary election|1846","CO-ALC-41319|2015|Ordinary election|1847"],"shares":[[0.42121002990568207,0.346330802852542],[0.3859988616960729,0.32487194080819576],[0.48039931823715604,0.3525687850012174]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":61.975667089079465,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,5.521048999309869,42.12100299056821,0,0,0,52.35794801012192],[23.574274331246443,38.59988616960729,0,0,0,2.2083096186681845,0,3.130335799658509,0,0,32.48719408081958],[15.339663988312637,0,48.039931823715605,0,1.3635256878500122,0,0,0,0,0,35.25687850012174]],"volatility_latest":65.30449630051224,"volatility_previous":52.173141930867786,"volatility_mean":58.73881911569001,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41349","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Hobo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.772266065388948,12.2112965927281,8.285356695869837],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41349|2023|Ordinary election|1848","CO-ALC-41349|2019|Ordinary election|1849","CO-ALC-41349|2015|Ordinary election|1850"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41349|2023|Ordinary election|1848","CO-ALC-41349|2019|Ordinary election|1849","CO-ALC-41349|2015|Ordinary election|1850"],"shares":[[0.46155580608793684,0.40383314543404736],[0.44111593871484106,0.31900297278756],[0.5254067584480601,0.44255319148936173]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":60.22357856680609,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,40.38331454340474,8.18489289740699,4.464487034949268,0,0,0,0,0,0,46.96730552423901],[0,23.46215412760119,0,0,31.900297278756003,0,0,0,0,0,44.637548593642805],[0,52.54067584480601,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,47.459324155194]],"volatility_latest":31.900297278756007,"volatility_previous":31.900297278756007,"volatility_mean":31.900297278756007,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41357","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Iquira","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.3076923076923066,0.8361501512186393,2.8048780487804876],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41357|2023|Ordinary election|1851","CO-ALC-41357|2019|Ordinary election|1852","CO-ALC-41357|2015|Ordinary election|1853"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41357|2023|Ordinary election|1851","CO-ALC-41357|2019|Ordinary election|1852","CO-ALC-41357|2015|Ordinary election|1853"],"shares":[[0.27330316742081445,0.2702262443438914],[0.33179149617505777,0.32342999466287137],[0.33048780487804874,0.3024390243902439]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":96.42025882570488,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[8.380090497737557,0,0,0,0,0,0,25.502262443438916,0,0,66.11764705882354],[19.10692047678349,0,0,32.34299946628714,0.23127557374132718,0,0,15.139654865682264,0,0,33.17914961750578],[33.048780487804876,0,18.536585365853657,30.24390243902439,0,0,18.170731707317074,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":43.301105019074406,"volatility_previous":50.64917708419212,"volatility_mean":46.97514105163326,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41359","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Isnos","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.184033958647131,12.57218039616987,9.81249006832989],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41359|2023|Ordinary election|1854","CO-ALC-41359|2019|Ordinary election|1855","CO-ALC-41359|2015|Ordinary election|1856"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41359|2023|Ordinary election|1854","CO-ALC-41359|2019|Ordinary election|1855","CO-ALC-41359|2015|Ordinary election|1856"],"shares":[[0.24195536081062577,0.22011502122415447],[0.418390468533002,0.29266866457130325],[0.35436198951215636,0.2562370888288575]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":69.68338249563885,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,14.055867451732166,24.195536081062578,0,0,1.1844447487333973,0,60.56415171847186],[0,41.8390468533002,0,11.600029237628828,7.1997660989693735,10.094291352971274,0,0,0,0,29.266866457130327],[3.0748450659462896,25.623708882885747,14.643254409661528,18.012076910853327,35.43619895121564,0.09534403305259813,0,0,0,0,3.114571746384872]],"volatility_latest":53.43907609092903,"volatility_previous":52.36658000107858,"volatility_mean":52.902828046003805,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41378","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"La Argentina (Plata Vieja)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.779630112008338,20.253505933117587,2.5811320754717],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41378|2023|Ordinary election|1857","CO-ALC-41378|2019|Ordinary election|1858","CO-ALC-41378|2015|Ordinary election|1859"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41378|2023|Ordinary election|1857","CO-ALC-41378|2019|Ordinary election|1858","CO-ALC-41378|2015|Ordinary election|1859"],"shares":[[0.42341755665537906,0.28562125553529566],[0.5218446601941747,0.3193096008629989],[0.393811320754717,0.368]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":26.990284726562763,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,27.559260224016672,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,72.44073977598333],[52.18446601941748,31.93096008629989,0,15.884573894282632,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[36.8,0,0,39.3811320754717,0,0,0,23.818867924528302,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":72.44073977598333,"volatility_previous":47.31542610571737,"volatility_mean":59.87808294085035,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41396","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"La Plata","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[22.785693754362914,18.208342831091862,29.203310915675118],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41396|2023|Ordinary election|1860","CO-ALC-41396|2019|Ordinary election|1861","CO-ALC-41396|2015|Ordinary election|1862"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41396|2023|Ordinary election|1860","CO-ALC-41396|2019|Ordinary election|1861","CO-ALC-41396|2015|Ordinary election|1862"],"shares":[[0.48339013673880016,0.25553319919517103],[0.5106450877592887,0.3285616594483702],[0.48202276254526644,0.18998965338851526]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[48.33901367388002,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,51.66098632611999],[0,10.936858901299294,0,0,5.142466377934808,0,0,0,0,0,83.9206747207659],[18.998965338851526,0,0,0,16.541645111226075,0,0,0,0,0,64.4593895499224]],"volatility_latest":48.33901367388002,"volatility_previous":30.39814407214279,"volatility_mean":39.3685788730114,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41483","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Nataga","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[29.107477887965693,17.548596112311017,0.06031363088058583],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41483|2023|Ordinary election|1863","CO-ALC-41483|2019|Ordinary election|1864","CO-ALC-41483|2015|Ordinary election|1865"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41483|2023|Ordinary election|1863","CO-ALC-41483|2019|Ordinary election|1864","CO-ALC-41483|2015|Ordinary election|1865"],"shares":[[0.489949075314929,0.19887429643527205],[0.45734341252699784,0.2818574514038877],[0.500301568154403,0.4996984318455971]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[13.052800857678907,0,19.887429643527206,48.9949075314929,0,0,0,8.818011257035648,0,0,9.246850710265344],[28.185745140388768,0,0,26.079913606911447,0,0,0,0,0,0,45.734341252699785],[50.03015681544029,0,49.96984318455971,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":51.62043482514431,"volatility_previous":71.81425485961122,"volatility_mean":61.71734484237777,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41503","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Oporapa","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[24.886052871467637,4.906157392163323,9.320809248554916],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41503|2023|Ordinary election|1866","CO-ALC-41503|2019|Ordinary election|1867","CO-ALC-41503|2015|Ordinary election|1868"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41503|2023|Ordinary election|1866","CO-ALC-41503|2019|Ordinary election|1867","CO-ALC-41503|2015|Ordinary election|1868"],"shares":[[0.4617137648131267,0.21285323609845033],[0.5245307869608166,0.4754692130391834],[0.46802745664739887,0.37481936416184974]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":13.322200673074658,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[46.17137648131267,0,0.10635065329687025,0,0,15.496809480401094,0,0,0,0,38.22546338498937],[47.54692130391834,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.45307869608166],[37.48193641618497,0,2.781791907514451,46.80274566473989,0.6864161849710982,0,7.22543352601156,0,0,0,5.021676300578035]],"volatility_latest":15.603160133697964,"volatility_previous":57.49638728323699,"volatility_mean":36.54977370846748,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41518","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Paicol","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.193532582067611,18.140127388535028,10.853131749460044],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41518|2023|Ordinary election|1869","CO-ALC-41518|2019|Ordinary election|1870","CO-ALC-41518|2015|Ordinary election|1871"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41518|2023|Ordinary election|1869","CO-ALC-41518|2019|Ordinary election|1870","CO-ALC-41518|2015|Ordinary election|1871"],"shares":[[0.34835864772170505,0.29642332190102894],[0.4884076433121019,0.3070063694267516],[0.42710583153347736,0.31857451403887693]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":51.782645296264604,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[20.82312591866732,0,0,0,0,0,14.698677119059285,0,0,0,64.47819696227339],[20.45859872611465,0,0,48.84076433121019,30.70063694267516,0,0,0,0,0,0],[0,0,0,25.43196544276458,0,0,0,0,0,0,74.56803455723542]],"volatility_latest":79.54140127388534,"volatility_previous":74.56803455723542,"volatility_mean":77.05471791556039,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41524","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Palermo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[25.281132861307785,31.063377003391643,23.10458926773126],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41524|2023|Ordinary election|1872","CO-ALC-41524|2019|Ordinary election|1873","CO-ALC-41524|2015|Ordinary election|1874"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41524|2023|Ordinary election|1872","CO-ALC-41524|2019|Ordinary election|1873","CO-ALC-41524|2015|Ordinary election|1874"],"shares":[[0.4738997639872275,0.22108843537414966],[0.6487331249584359,0.3380993549245195],[0.40562508991512014,0.17457919723780752]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,17.319172566985976,0,0,0,82.68082743301403],[33.80993549245195,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.2702001729068297,0,0,64.91986433464122],[40.56250899151201,0,10.617177384548986,0.20860307869371314,8.854841030067616,17.45791972378075,7.430585527262265,0,11.55948784347576,0,3.308876420658898]],"volatility_latest":35.08013566535878,"volatility_previous":62.88118808688915,"volatility_mean":48.98066187612397,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41530","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Palestina","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.9630710845132135,2.6969373761999087,11.62428645563051],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41530|2023|Ordinary election|1875","CO-ALC-41530|2019|Ordinary election|1876","CO-ALC-41530|2015|Ordinary election|1877"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41530|2023|Ordinary election|1875","CO-ALC-41530|2019|Ordinary election|1876","CO-ALC-41530|2015|Ordinary election|1877"],"shares":[[0.3444752590862648,0.31484454824113267],[0.3032149931433796,0.2762456193813805],[0.5063137865421207,0.3900709219858156]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":81.25323745434524,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41548","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Pital","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.536140447126595,10.59048178613396,7.62780196742461],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41548|2023|Ordinary election|1878","CO-ALC-41548|2019|Ordinary election|1879","CO-ALC-41548|2015|Ordinary election|1880"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41548|2023|Ordinary election|1878","CO-ALC-41548|2019|Ordinary election|1879","CO-ALC-41548|2015|Ordinary election|1880"],"shares":[[0.2881634892333013,0.2728020847620354],[0.39027614571092833,0.28437132784958874],[0.4704079987098855,0.3941299790356394]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":75.69195499570696,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[15.896310519818956,0,0,28.816348923330132,0,0,0,0,0,0,55.287340556850914],[39.02761457109283,28.437132784958873,0,21.65099882491187,10.884253819036427,0,0,0,0,0,0],[39.41299790356394,47.04079987098855,0,0,0,6.7408482502822125,0,6.805353975165296,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":62.45269065526918,"volatility_previous":32.5352526439483,"volatility_mean":47.49397164960874,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41551","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Pitalito","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.954130151034867,12.07413716486446,8.894017763307026],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41551|2023|Ordinary election|1881","CO-ALC-41551|2019|Ordinary election|1882","CO-ALC-41551|2015|Ordinary election|1883"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41551|2023|Ordinary election|1881","CO-ALC-41551|2019|Ordinary election|1882","CO-ALC-41551|2015|Ordinary election|1883"],"shares":[[0.5462987134066754,0.42675741189632665],[0.42904754851133164,0.308306176862687],[0.36787767634512747,0.2789374987120572]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":41.5793949179452,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,54.629871340667535,0,0,0,0,0,0,45.370128659332465],[0,0,0,0,3.814249740779144,0,0,30.830617686268702,0,0,65.35513257295214],[0.5852412059265976,19.44484513775836,0,0,7.682321182022379,1.7206915737630597,27.89374987120572,0.09685329816390875,2.2152616069404663,0,40.36103612421951]],"volatility_latest":54.62987134066753,"volatility_previous":55.727860836837436,"volatility_mean":55.178866088752486,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41615","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Rivera","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.726626861159396,18.15722738799662,5.565828402366861],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41615|2023|Ordinary election|1884","CO-ALC-41615|2019|Ordinary election|1885","CO-ALC-41615|2015|Ordinary election|1886"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41615|2023|Ordinary election|1884","CO-ALC-41615|2019|Ordinary election|1885","CO-ALC-41615|2015|Ordinary election|1886"],"shares":[[0.3933187211850956,0.3260524525735016],[0.5563820794590025,0.37480980557903637],[0.3797152366863905,0.3240569526627219]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":49.80136413334345,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[10.64923286221752,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,89.35076713778247],[0,0,0,0,0.46491969568892644,0,5.950972104818258,0,0,0,93.5841081994928],[0,32.40569526627219,0,0,3.2451923076923075,0,0,0,0,0,64.3491124260355]],"volatility_latest":10.64923286221752,"volatility_previous":35.18596787827556,"volatility_mean":22.91760037024654,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41660","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Saladoblanco","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.8126237950613984,10.594241951496244,49.92987377279103],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41660|2023|Ordinary election|1887","CO-ALC-41660|2019|Ordinary election|1888","CO-ALC-41660|2015|Ordinary election|1889"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41660|2023|Ordinary election|1887","CO-ALC-41660|2019|Ordinary election|1888","CO-ALC-41660|2015|Ordinary election|1889"],"shares":[[0.4739205070645715,0.4457942691139575],[0.4782300382924408,0.37228761877747835],[0.7440392706872371,0.24474053295932677]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":50.705828801175926,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,7.275848408820811,0,44.57942691139575,0,0,0,0,48.14472467978344],[47.82300382924408,0,13.430719046943697,0,0,0,0,1.0920436817472698,0,0.3829244078854063,37.271309034179545],[24.474053295932677,0,0,0,1.1220196353436185,0,0,0,0,0,74.4039270687237]],"volatility_latest":62.728690965820455,"volatility_previous":38.25463766988778,"volatility_mean":50.49166431785412,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41668","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"San Agustin","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.951252150640414,7.704959514170039,5.756796217757078],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41668|2023|Ordinary election|1890","CO-ALC-41668|2019|Ordinary election|1891","CO-ALC-41668|2015|Ordinary election|1892"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41668|2023|Ordinary election|1890","CO-ALC-41668|2019|Ordinary election|1891","CO-ALC-41668|2015|Ordinary election|1892"],"shares":[[0.30147199388262286,0.2519594723762187],[0.3363486842105263,0.2592990890688259],[0.38475978585830495,0.3271918236807342]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":70.71040616794517,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,8.481488561779138,0,0,0,25.19594723762187,0,13.27980628305614,1.6567896514369465,0,51.38596826610591],[0,33.63486842105263,0,0,2.068572874493927,0,5.073380566801619,0,0,0,59.22317813765182],[0,21.852186609191406,38.4759785858305,32.71918236807342,3.4554682611416254,0.3267746645345199,3.100882986859487,0,0,0,0.06952652436904679]],"volatility_latest":40.13254317211495,"volatility_previous":72.90883100508613,"volatility_mean":56.52068708860054,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41676","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Santa Maria","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[33.222701626286096,0.3284923928077461,28.872037914691944],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41676|2023|Ordinary election|1893","CO-ALC-41676|2019|Ordinary election|1894","CO-ALC-41676|2015|Ordinary election|1895"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41676|2023|Ordinary election|1893","CO-ALC-41676|2019|Ordinary election|1894","CO-ALC-41676|2015|Ordinary election|1895"],"shares":[[0.6012280119482244,0.26900099568536345],[0.3597856154910097,0.3565006915629322],[0.5514691943127962,0.2627488151658768]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41770","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Suaza","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.380197289573161,7.395791177660868,3.654007427818371],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41770|2023|Ordinary election|1896","CO-ALC-41770|2019|Ordinary election|1897","CO-ALC-41770|2015|Ordinary election|1898"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41770|2023|Ordinary election|1896","CO-ALC-41770|2019|Ordinary election|1897","CO-ALC-41770|2015|Ordinary election|1898"],"shares":[[0.5419009864478658,0.45809901355213417],[0.3510724403075678,0.27711452853095914],[0.5182700371390918,0.48172996286090813]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":61.93871765088004,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,45.80990135521342,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,54.19009864478658],[0,11.79684338324565,0,23.573452043707,0,35.10724403075678,0,1.811007689194658,0,0,27.711452853095913],[0,0,0,48.172996286090815,0,0,0,0,0,0,51.827003713909185]],"volatility_latest":72.2885471469041,"volatility_previous":48.715095103197086,"volatility_mean":60.50182112505059,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41791","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Tarqui","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.115104835258883,0.2886964246058241,10.091743119266056],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41791|2023|Ordinary election|1899","CO-ALC-41791|2019|Ordinary election|1900","CO-ALC-41791|2015|Ordinary election|1901"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41791|2023|Ordinary election|1899","CO-ALC-41791|2019|Ordinary election|1900","CO-ALC-41791|2015|Ordinary election|1901"],"shares":[[0.4385964912280702,0.30744544287548137],[0.3733066844326005,0.3704197201865423],[0.5429102310997561,0.44199279990709556]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":55.17576929768159,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[30.744544287548138,0,0,0,0,6.546854942233633,0,0,0,0,62.70860077021823],[0,0,0,0,16.278036864312682,9.34932267377304,0,0,0,0,74.37264046191427],[54.29102310997561,0,0.6619440250841946,0,0.8477528742306353,0,0,0,0,0,44.199279990709556]],"volatility_latest":30.744544287548134,"volatility_previous":54.95296713505981,"volatility_mean":42.84875571130397,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41797","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Tesalia (Carnicerias)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.156358238495795,20.41142046462139,0.952729937706124],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41797|2023|Ordinary election|1902","CO-ALC-41797|2019|Ordinary election|1903","CO-ALC-41797|2015|Ordinary election|1904"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41797|2023|Ordinary election|1902","CO-ALC-41797|2019|Ordinary election|1903","CO-ALC-41797|2015|Ordinary election|1904"],"shares":[[0.34817746989938975,0.3066138875144318],[0.4050363539634687,0.20092214931725483],[0.35782337852693297,0.3482960791498717]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":56.43742961872748,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[29.539831766452252,0,0,0,0,34.817746989938975,0,0,0,0,35.64242124360877],[40.50363539634687,4.699414789856357,0,20.092214931725483,0,0,0,0,0,0,34.70473488207129],[34.82960791498717,0,35.782337852693296,21.253206302674972,4.415536826676438,3.71931110296812,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":35.755433351476455,"volatility_previous":45.07817715328735,"volatility_mean":40.416805252381906,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41799","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Tello","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[23.886858844227902,7.387722561785807,1.3466124281105394],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41799|2023|Ordinary election|1905","CO-ALC-41799|2019|Ordinary election|1906","CO-ALC-41799|2015|Ordinary election|1907"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41799|2023|Ordinary election|1905","CO-ALC-41799|2019|Ordinary election|1906","CO-ALC-41799|2015|Ordinary election|1907"],"shares":[[0.6194342942211395,0.3805657057788605],[0.5369386128089291,0.463061387191071],[0.4877261888062842,0.4742600645251788]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":16.584533410582324,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,38.05657057788605,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,61.94342942211395],[0,53.693861280892904,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,46.306138719107096],[0,48.77261888062842,0,0,1.1081498106326273,2.693224856221069,0,0,0,0,47.42600645251788]],"volatility_latest":15.637290703006855,"volatility_previous":4.921242400264482,"volatility_mean":10.279266551635668,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41801","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Teruel","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[43.087020961253444,12.067594433399606,5.702127659574465],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41801|2023|Ordinary election|1908","CO-ALC-41801|2019|Ordinary election|1909","CO-ALC-41801|2015|Ordinary election|1910"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41801|2023|Ordinary election|1908","CO-ALC-41801|2019|Ordinary election|1909","CO-ALC-41801|2015|Ordinary election|1910"],"shares":[[0.6277789540546262,0.1969087444420919],[0.5105367793240557,0.38986083499005963],[0.4006382978723404,0.34361702127659577]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,19.69087444420919,17.53123015032818,0,0,0,62.77789540546263],[0,0,0,0,38.986083499005964,0,0,0,2.1868787276341948,0.07952286282306163,58.74751491053678],[34.361702127659576,0,0,0,8.106382978723405,40.06382978723404,4.48936170212766,0,0,0,12.97872340425532]],"volatility_latest":41.25248508946322,"volatility_previous":78.91489361702128,"volatility_mean":60.08368935324225,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41807","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Timana","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.5289949655043777,1.210675960744748,0.09384775808133483],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41807|2023|Ordinary election|1911","CO-ALC-41807|2019|Ordinary election|1912","CO-ALC-41807|2015|Ordinary election|1913"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41807|2023|Ordinary election|1911","CO-ALC-41807|2019|Ordinary election|1912","CO-ALC-41807|2015|Ordinary election|1913"],"shares":[[0.32276710796196156,0.3074771583069178],[0.2901953590754838,0.2780885994680363],[0.26548488008342025,0.26454640250260686]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":93.55007728332907,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[30.747715830691778,0,0,0,0,32.276710796196156,0,3.179190751445087,0,0,33.79638262166698],[27.808859946803633,0,7.86022195725947,0.14674860130239384,29.01953590754838,0,7.740988718701275,0,0,0,27.423644868384848],[0,23.53493222106361,26.454640250260688,12.022940563086548,11.303441084462982,0,0,0,0,0.13555787278415016,26.548488008342023]],"volatility_latest":44.767495184811516,"volatility_previous":54.14110034863313,"volatility_mean":49.45429776672232,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41872","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Villavieja","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.218407596785973,4.852160727824106,33.843983067929855],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41872|2023|Ordinary election|1914","CO-ALC-41872|2019|Ordinary election|1915","CO-ALC-41872|2015|Ordinary election|1916"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41872|2023|Ordinary election|1914","CO-ALC-41872|2019|Ordinary election|1915","CO-ALC-41872|2015|Ordinary election|1916"],"shares":[[0.29547114682249814,0.2532870708546384],[0.3434420015163002,0.29492039423805916],[0.6426123765369885,0.30417254585769]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":63.144544583940984,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-41885","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Yaguara","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.970499243570348,18.143050978871877,7.980332829046901],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-41885|2023|Ordinary election|1917","CO-ALC-41885|2019|Ordinary election|1918","CO-ALC-41885|2015|Ordinary election|1919"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-41885|2023|Ordinary election|1917","CO-ALC-41885|2019|Ordinary election|1918","CO-ALC-41885|2015|Ordinary election|1919"],"shares":[[0.42681543116490167,0.3071104387291982],[0.3783679007559605,0.19693739096724172],[0.40034039334341903,0.32053706505295004]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":32.88375938645769,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[30.71104387291982,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,69.28895612708018],[19.693739096724173,0,0,37.83679007559605,8.276797829036635,0,18.627641015700718,1.143632486916069,0,2.965691025392518,11.455708470633844],[0.642965204236006,0,0.037821482602118005,32.053706505295004,24.943267776096825,2.2881996974281393,40.034039334341905,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":68.85055243264199,"volatility_previous":40.39888944573164,"volatility_mean":54.624720939186815,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-44001","country":"Colombia","region":"La Guajira","name":"Riohacha","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.014445594833113,15.734475608425186,26.8636536270414],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-44001|2023|Ordinary election|1920","CO-ALC-44001|2019|Ordinary election|1921","CO-ALC-44001|2015|Ordinary election|1922"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-44001|2023|Ordinary election|1920","CO-ALC-44001|2019|Ordinary election|1921","CO-ALC-44001|2015|Ordinary election|1922"],"shares":[[0.37087708918798995,0.33073263323965885],[0.407535741569355,0.25019098548510316],[0.523387770603874,0.2547512343334599]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":50.923122989342176,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[25.019098548510314,0,0,0,1.4269344101276875,0,0,0,0.9385572410782494,0,72.61540980028374],[0,0,0,52.33877706038739,0,0,1.7759210026585643,0,0,0,45.88530193695404]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":54.11469806304596,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-44035","country":"Colombia","region":"La Guajira","name":"Albania","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.9252895604817084,4.771564649850063,37.74248668207861],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-44035|2023|Ordinary election|1923","CO-ALC-44035|2019|Ordinary election|1924","CO-ALC-44035|2015|Ordinary election|1925"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-44035|2023|Ordinary election|1923","CO-ALC-44035|2019|Ordinary election|1924","CO-ALC-44035|2015|Ordinary election|1925"],"shares":[[0.38398404540921993,0.36473114980440285],[0.4169165637678603,0.36920091726935966],[0.688712433410393,0.311287566589607]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":68.19554100274048,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,38.398404540921995,0,0,61.60159545907801],[0,0,0,41.69165637678603,14.16475568883401,0,2.0197565708237786,36.920091726935965,0,0,5.203739636620216],[0,0,0,31.1287566589607,0,0,0,0,0,0,68.8712433410393]],"volatility_latest":57.87616863644382,"volatility_previous":63.66750370441908,"volatility_mean":60.771836170431456,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-44078","country":"Colombia","region":"La Guajira","name":"Barrancas","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.205220946689735,11.593948951579932,10.311679006448529],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-44078|2023|Ordinary election|1926","CO-ALC-44078|2019|Ordinary election|1927","CO-ALC-44078|2015|Ordinary election|1928"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-44078|2023|Ordinary election|1926","CO-ALC-44078|2019|Ordinary election|1927","CO-ALC-44078|2015|Ordinary election|1928"],"shares":[[0.5174817843476438,0.46542957488074643],[0.5188365165586122,0.4028970270428129],[0.5268091712443277,0.42369238117984237]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":61.83757422933663,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[51.88365165586122,1.968342970620875,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,46.1480053735179],[0,42.36923811798424,4.8065440649629805,0,0,0.14330069262001432,0,0,0,0,52.68091712443277]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":51.88365165586123,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-44090","country":"Colombia","region":"La Guajira","name":"Dibulla","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.741411527957446,15.237583480463652,6.505805814049246],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-44090|2023|Ordinary election|1929","CO-ALC-44090|2019|Ordinary election|1930","CO-ALC-44090|2015|Ordinary election|1931"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-44090|2023|Ordinary election|1929","CO-ALC-44090|2019|Ordinary election|1930","CO-ALC-44090|2015|Ordinary election|1931"],"shares":[[0.49101624263331894,0.4236021273537445],[0.45090964919014354,0.298533814385507],[0.49510005764638065,0.4300419995058882]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":53.66648728840756,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[49.10162426333189,0,0,0,0,0,1.4302141727756217,0,0,0,49.46816156389249],[0,0,0,0,29.853381438550702,0,20.979504106854993,0,0,0,49.167114454594305],[0.18940953635839577,2.948200609404595,49.510005764638066,43.00419995058882,0,4.3481841390101295,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":49.402671372630074,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":74.70133568631503,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-44098","country":"Colombia","region":"La Guajira","name":"Distraccion","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.849373500399892,15.323308270676698,35.02094972067039],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-44098|2023|Ordinary election|1932","CO-ALC-44098|2019|Ordinary election|1933","CO-ALC-44098|2015|Ordinary election|1934"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-44098|2023|Ordinary election|1932","CO-ALC-44098|2019|Ordinary election|1933","CO-ALC-44098|2015|Ordinary election|1934"],"shares":[[0.5742468675019995,0.42575313249800056],[0.4921804511278196,0.3389473684210526],[0.5722765363128491,0.22206703910614525]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":14.956442232450085,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[33.89473684210526,0,49.21804511278196,0,0,0,16.887218045112782,0,0,0,0],[0,57.227653631284916,0,14.420391061452515,0,6.145251396648045,0,0,0,0,22.206703910614525]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-44110","country":"Colombia","region":"La Guajira","name":"El Molino","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.986186957918406,8.999158957106815,6.184185334099183],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-44110|2023|Ordinary election|1935","CO-ALC-44110|2019|Ordinary election|1936","CO-ALC-44110|2015|Ordinary election|1937"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-44110|2023|Ordinary election|1935","CO-ALC-44110|2019|Ordinary election|1936","CO-ALC-44110|2015|Ordinary election|1937"],"shares":[[0.554930934789592,0.44506906521040795],[0.5449957947855341,0.45500420521446594],[0.530920926670496,0.4690790733295041]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":50.45060802353497,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[55.4930934789592,0,44.5069065210408,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[45.50042052144659,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,54.49957947855341],[0,0,53.09209266704959,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,46.90790733295041]],"volatility_latest":54.49957947855341,"volatility_previous":53.09209266704959,"volatility_mean":53.7958360728015,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-44279","country":"Colombia","region":"La Guajira","name":"Fonseca","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":1,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2026,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,null,5.2546861207747035],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. MISSING ordinary-cycle return(s): [2023]; no zero or substitute election inserted. Known 2026-05-03 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified. Known 2023-12-17 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-44279|CO-ALC-44279-2026-05-03-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6777","CO-ALC-44279|CO-ALC-44279-2023-12-17-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6807","CO-ALC-44279|2019|Ordinary election|1938"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-44279|CO-ALC-44279-2026-05-03-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6777","CO-ALC-44279|CO-ALC-44279-2023-12-17-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6807","CO-ALC-44279|2019|Ordinary election|1938","CO-ALC-44279|2015|Ordinary election|1939"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[0.36933381795524167,0.3167869567474947]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[9.154161690638142,31.678695674749466,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,59.16714263461239]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":2,"Full positive candidate vector":2},"unresolved_event_count":2,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-44378","country":"Colombia","region":"La Guajira","name":"Hatonuevo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.464942633400113,4.530184261427266,12.175158583998368],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-44378|2023|Ordinary election|1940","CO-ALC-44378|2019|Ordinary election|1941","CO-ALC-44378|2015|Ordinary election|1942"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-44378|2023|Ordinary election|1940","CO-ALC-44378|2019|Ordinary election|1941","CO-ALC-44378|2015|Ordinary election|1942"],"shares":[[0.5662902932070661,0.391640866873065],[0.5226509213071363,0.4773490786928637],[0.5608757929199918,0.43912420708000816]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":34.72231641565957,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[56.629029320706614,0,39.1640866873065,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,4.206883991986888],[47.73490786928637,0,52.26509213071363,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[0,0,56.087579291999184,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,43.912420708000816]],"volatility_latest":13.101005443407134,"volatility_previous":47.73490786928637,"volatility_mean":30.41795665634675,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-44420","country":"Colombia","region":"La Guajira","name":"La Jagua Del Pilar","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2025,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,5.904971161768742,28.512551517422253],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2025-05-18 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-44420|CO-ALC-44420-2025-05-18-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6791","CO-ALC-44420|2023|Ordinary election|1943","CO-ALC-44420|2019|Ordinary election|1944"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-44420|CO-ALC-44420-2025-05-18-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6791","CO-ALC-44420|2023|Ordinary election|1943","CO-ALC-44420|2019|Ordinary election|1944","CO-ALC-44420|2015|Ordinary election|1945"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.5295248558088437,0.47047514419115627],[0.5961034095166728,0.3109778943424504]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,52.95248558088437,0,0,0,47.04751441911563,0,0,0,0],[0,59.61034095166729,0,8.654926938928437,31.097789434245037,0,0,0,0,0,0.6369426751592356]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-44430","country":"Colombia","region":"La Guajira","name":"Maicao","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[22.738375643374336,32.07740084542722,15.09376137299596],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-44430|2023|Ordinary election|1946","CO-ALC-44430|2019|Ordinary election|1947","CO-ALC-44430|2015|Ordinary election|1948"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-44430|2023|Ordinary election|1946","CO-ALC-44430|2019|Ordinary election|1947","CO-ALC-44430|2015|Ordinary election|1948"],"shares":[[0.44043880310564426,0.2130550466719009],[0.5572342016511773,0.2364601931969052],[0.41019403528262494,0.2592564215526653]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[4.566867312221931,0,0,0,0,0,0,2.632382447875774,0,0,92.8007502399023],[0,1.3825939660303073,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,98.61740603396969],[0,12.415959545654797,25.925642155266534,41.019403528262494,0,0,0,17.913306644702818,0,0,2.7256881261133565]],"volatility_latest":7.1992497600976995,"volatility_previous":95.89171790785633,"volatility_mean":51.545483833977016,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-44560","country":"Colombia","region":"La Guajira","name":"Manaure","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.3563405061578067,13.212038768916855,15.066955002911087],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-44560|2023|Ordinary election|1949","CO-ALC-44560|2019|Ordinary election|1950","CO-ALC-44560|2015|Ordinary election|1951"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-44560|2023|Ordinary election|1949","CO-ALC-44560|2019|Ordinary election|1950","CO-ALC-44560|2015|Ordinary election|1951"],"shares":[[0.516781702530789,0.48321829746921097],[0.508484951538854,0.3763645638496854],[0.5652499376195625,0.4145803875904517]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":62.579442826695754,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,51.6781702530789,0,0,0,0,48.3218297469211,0,0,0],null,[41.458038759045166,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2.016967478998586,0,56.52499376195625]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-44650","country":"Colombia","region":"La Guajira","name":"San Juan Del Cesar","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.789406914050105,3.3222591362126224,0.21283340125888373],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-44650|2023|Ordinary election|1952","CO-ALC-44650|2019|Ordinary election|1953","CO-ALC-44650|2015|Ordinary election|1954"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-44650|2023|Ordinary election|1952","CO-ALC-44650|2019|Ordinary election|1953","CO-ALC-44650|2015|Ordinary election|1954"],"shares":[[0.5639470345702505,0.4360529654297495],[0.28727028049960046,0.2540476891374743],[0.3667527057012181,0.36462437168862927]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":56.541973852901315,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[28.727028049960047,0,0,0,9.533622103536734,3.4946801799907483,0,22.200260734261324,0,0,36.044408932251145],[0,0,0,36.67527057012181,0,0,0,0,0,0,63.32472942987819]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":63.955591067748855,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-44847","country":"Colombia","region":"La Guajira","name":"Uribia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.758844708829052,6.281844165527531,33.55994539020924],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-44847|2023|Ordinary election|1955","CO-ALC-44847|2019|Ordinary election|1956","CO-ALC-44847|2015|Ordinary election|1957"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-44847|2023|Ordinary election|1955","CO-ALC-44847|2019|Ordinary election|1956","CO-ALC-44847|2015|Ordinary election|1957"],"shares":[[0.5224835629304947,0.46489511584220417],[0.5060892257984342,0.4432707841431589],[0.6677997269510462,0.3322002730489537]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":56.52072693011693,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0.4735441452723857,0,0.7885879774577332,0,0,98.73786787726988],[0,0,0,0,0,5.063999005840686,0,0,0,0,94.93600099415931],[0,66.77997269510462,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,33.220027304895375]],"volatility_latest":4.590454860568299,"volatility_previous":66.77997269510462,"volatility_mean":35.68521377783646,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-44855","country":"Colombia","region":"La Guajira","name":"Urumita","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.459881529348415,3.5909664749614265,19.18557862546274],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-44855|2023|Ordinary election|1958","CO-ALC-44855|2019|Ordinary election|1959","CO-ALC-44855|2015|Ordinary election|1960"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-44855|2023|Ordinary election|1958","CO-ALC-44855|2019|Ordinary election|1959","CO-ALC-44855|2015|Ordinary election|1960"],"shares":[[0.5113085621970921,0.47670974690360796],[0.5171833356712021,0.48127367092158785],[0.4833413809753742,0.2914855947207468]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":74.64111638678125,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.053850296176628974,0,51.13085621970921,0,0,0.053850296176628974,0,0.5385029617662898,0,0,48.22294022617124],null,[0,0,0,29.14855947207468,0,0,0,0,0,0,70.85144052792532]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-44874","country":"Colombia","region":"La Guajira","name":"Villanueva","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.086879301413454,4.7395161901873095,18.56577566017928],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-44874|2023|Ordinary election|1961","CO-ALC-44874|2019|Ordinary election|1962","CO-ALC-44874|2015|Ordinary election|1963"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-44874|2023|Ordinary election|1961","CO-ALC-44874|2019|Ordinary election|1962","CO-ALC-44874|2015|Ordinary election|1963"],"shares":[[0.4904906386442685,0.4696218456301339],[0.40426177295821647,0.3568666110563434],[0.4502947589437132,0.26463700234192034]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":77.34719998038904,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,46.962184563013395,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,53.037815436986605],[0,35.686661105634336,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,64.31333889436566],[0,18.00856012274893,45.029475894371316,26.463700234192036,0,0,0,0,0,0,10.498263748687718]],"volatility_latest":46.962184563013395,"volatility_previous":71.49317612856335,"volatility_mean":59.22768034578837,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-47001","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Santa Marta","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[60.79788263018132,50.49114181395734,30.337183963258894],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-47001|2023|Ordinary election|1964","CO-ALC-47001|2019|Ordinary election|1965","CO-ALC-47001|2015|Ordinary election|1966"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-47001|2023|Ordinary election|1964","CO-ALC-47001|2019|Ordinary election|1965","CO-ALC-47001|2015|Ordinary election|1966"],"shares":[[0.7506814624624097,0.14270263616059653],[0.6773296821840511,0.17241826404447763],[0.5399571197600581,0.23658528012746913]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,7.384760600780019,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,92.61523939921997],[23.658528012746913,2.647210441221267,11.585280127469128,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,62.10898141856269]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":30.506257980657285,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-47030","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Algarrobo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.6684924003834,7.306919322423198,2.8672112766298277],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-47030|2023|Ordinary election|1967","CO-ALC-47030|2019|Ordinary election|1968","CO-ALC-47030|2015|Ordinary election|1969"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-47030|2023|Ordinary election|1967","CO-ALC-47030|2019|Ordinary election|1968","CO-ALC-47030|2015|Ordinary election|1969"],"shares":[[0.4268108996302889,0.3601259756264549],[0.45564168819982775,0.38257249497559576],[0.32964920711196544,0.3009770943456671]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":67.60053817690009,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[17.759824729563192,36.01259756264549,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,46.22757770779131],null,[32.96492071119654,12.894441774787762,0,30.097709434566713,2.3706551337498,0,8.393400608681723,0,0,0,13.278872337017459]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-47053","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Aracataca","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.678467581492626,2.5511650320312924,15.356939973489872],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-47053|2023|Ordinary election|1970","CO-ALC-47053|2019|Ordinary election|1971","CO-ALC-47053|2015|Ordinary election|1972"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-47053|2023|Ordinary election|1970","CO-ALC-47053|2019|Ordinary election|1971","CO-ALC-47053|2015|Ordinary election|1972"],"shares":[[0.3458654287609039,0.33908075294597767],[0.488179602018255,0.46266795169794206],[0.4940352206021587,0.34046582086725996]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":86.45937972073024,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,34.58654287609039,0,0,0,2.1221241646686733,0,0,0,63.29133295924093],[0,0,0,0,48.8179602018255,4.4843812007483415,0,0,0.4308634276319519,0,46.26679516979421],[1.3696900839487471,15.180205769109385,0,0,0,0,0,34.046582086726,0,0,49.40352206021587]],"volatility_latest":53.73320483020579,"volatility_previous":53.73320483020579,"volatility_mean":53.73320483020579,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-47058","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Ariguani (El Dificil)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[36.003872685465325,15.628465201226273,5.019006053780096],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-47058|2023|Ordinary election|1973","CO-ALC-47058|2019|Ordinary election|1974","CO-ALC-47058|2015|Ordinary election|1975"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-47058|2023|Ordinary election|1973","CO-ALC-47058|2019|Ordinary election|1974","CO-ALC-47058|2015|Ordinary election|1975"],"shares":[[0.5737020452620114,0.2136633184073581],[0.4531341725914813,0.2968495205792186],[0.4650147824862734,0.4148247219484725]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,2.505143410383638,0,0,0,0,0.44172818588890234,21.36633184073581,0,0,75.68679656299165],[0,0,0,0,0,5.3421172787163265,0,0,0,0,94.65788272128367],[0.14078558355624385,0,46.50147824862734,0,0.51386737998029,0.2604533295790511,0.7602421512037167,10.34070111220611,0,0,41.48247219484725]],"volatility_latest":24.31320343700835,"volatility_previous":58.2570744755737,"volatility_mean":41.28513895629103,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-47161","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Cerro De San Antonio","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[33.180473372781066,16.54077385540311,37.81340610608903],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-47161|2023|Ordinary election|1976","CO-ALC-47161|2019|Ordinary election|1977","CO-ALC-47161|2015|Ordinary election|1978"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-47161|2023|Ordinary election|1976","CO-ALC-47161|2019|Ordinary election|1977","CO-ALC-47161|2015|Ordinary election|1978"],"shares":[[0.5850591715976331,0.2532544378698225],[0.5703715122552798,0.4049637737012487],[0.6880436636534197,0.3099096025925294]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[58.505917159763314,13.653846153846153,0,25.325443786982248,0,0,0,0,0,0,2.514792899408284],[0,40.49637737012487,0,0,0,0,2.1889933713581007,0.24664714043471558,0,0,57.06798211808232],[0,0.20467337540508274,30.990960259252944,68.80436636534198,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":83.83136094674556,"volatility_previous":99.79532662459492,"volatility_mean":91.81334378567024,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-47170","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Chivolo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.155510480054094,8.968609865470846,13.757154538021261],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-47170|2023|Ordinary election|1979","CO-ALC-47170|2019|Ordinary election|1980","CO-ALC-47170|2015|Ordinary election|1981"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-47170|2023|Ordinary election|1979","CO-ALC-47170|2019|Ordinary election|1980","CO-ALC-47170|2015|Ordinary election|1981"],"shares":[[0.3417849898580122,0.29022988505747127],[0.487071844289667,0.39738574563495854],[0.5679681112019623,0.4303965658217498]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":64.20197649262083,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[27.941176470588236,29.022988505747126,34.17849898580122,0,0,0,0,8.857336037863421,0,0,0],[11.277549852113347,48.7071844289667,0,0.2766911554241008,39.73857456349585,0,0,0,0,0,0],[0,56.79681112019624,43.03965658217498,0.11242845461978741,0,0,0,0,0.051103843008994274,0,0]],"volatility_latest":59.699461642139525,"volatility_previous":51.18038711641351,"volatility_mean":55.43992437927652,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-47189","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Cienaga","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.294268825494733,25.414264804206802,9.769094138543515],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-47189|2023|Ordinary election|1982","CO-ALC-47189|2019|Ordinary election|1983","CO-ALC-47189|2015|Ordinary election|1984"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-47189|2023|Ordinary election|1982","CO-ALC-47189|2019|Ordinary election|1983","CO-ALC-47189|2015|Ordinary election|1984"],"shares":[[0.27326308575344815,0.22032039749850083],[0.4205533168289995,0.16641066878693145],[0.4686171592791426,0.37092621789370744]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":41.11124924793385,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,3.03092606870556,7.3091750192752505,0,0,0,0,2.626574145463891,0,87.0333247665553],[0,0,0,2.811760241421059,0,0.2800917978279333,12.405356077992012,0,3.2291873723775275,0,81.27360451038146],[0,0,0,46.86171592791426,1.48681820903267,0,0,14.55884407368232,37.092621789370746,0,0]],"volatility_latest":13.288061102733584,"volatility_previous":93.9590523862014,"volatility_mean":53.62355674446749,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-47205","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Concordia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.3954451345755743,24.211699164345404,5.437409376510388],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-47205|2023|Ordinary election|1985","CO-ALC-47205|2019|Ordinary election|1986","CO-ALC-47205|2015|Ordinary election|1987"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-47205|2023|Ordinary election|1985","CO-ALC-47205|2019|Ordinary election|1986","CO-ALC-47205|2015|Ordinary election|1987"],"shares":[[0.41107660455486544,0.3771221532091097],[0.621058495821727,0.378941504178273],[0.5264620589656839,0.47208796520058]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":50.77741116149998,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[62.1058495821727,0,0,37.8941504178273,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[0,47.208796520058,0.14499758337361043,52.64620589656839,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":62.1058495821727,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-47245","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"El Banco","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.785557359824239,16.226622662266223,21.16460541813899],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-47245|2023|Ordinary election|1988","CO-ALC-47245|2019|Ordinary election|1989","CO-ALC-47245|2015|Ordinary election|1990"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-47245|2023|Ordinary election|1988","CO-ALC-47245|2019|Ordinary election|1989","CO-ALC-47245|2015|Ordinary election|1990"],"shares":[[0.49950647944725696,0.4516509058490146],[0.4235079757975797,0.2612417491749175],[0.5570156065959952,0.3453695524146054]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":50.721091218058454,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.547425733116821,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,98.45257426688318],[0,0,10.334158415841584,42.35079757975797,0,0,26.12417491749175,0,0,0,21.19086908690869],[0.4785041224970554,9.282979976442874,55.70156065959953,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,34.53695524146054]],"volatility_latest":78.80913091309131,"volatility_previous":68.47497249724972,"volatility_mean":73.64205170517052,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-47258","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"El Piñon","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.9265648102513566,0.4454774355994573,24.161685746125013],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-47258|2023|Ordinary election|1991","CO-ALC-47258|2019|Ordinary election|1992","CO-ALC-47258|2015|Ordinary election|1993"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-47258|2023|Ordinary election|1991","CO-ALC-47258|2019|Ordinary election|1992","CO-ALC-47258|2015|Ordinary election|1993"],"shares":[[0.3337604731394776,0.32449482503696403],[0.45855122990509395,0.4540964555490994],[0.5549589707223179,0.3133421132610678]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":84.47124654278424,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,32.4494825036964,0,0.08871365204534254,0.16757023164120255,0,0,0,0,0,67.29423361261705],[0,45.85512299050939,0,0,0,0.10652721286073988,0,2.769707534379237,0,0,51.26864226225063],[0,55.49589707223179,31.33421132610678,12.572181136662952,0.5977104649984804,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":16.281875234052965,"volatility_previous":54.14487700949061,"volatility_mean":35.21337612177179,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-47268","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"El Reten","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.301900719689982,8.742345737164392,23.602625028286937],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-47268|2023|Ordinary election|1994","CO-ALC-47268|2019|Ordinary election|1995","CO-ALC-47268|2015|Ordinary election|1996"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-47268|2023|Ordinary election|1994","CO-ALC-47268|2019|Ordinary election|1995","CO-ALC-47268|2015|Ordinary election|1996"],"shares":[[0.4233253367780033,0.36030632958110353],[0.35176636834667924,0.2643429109750353],[0.6180131251414347,0.3819868748585653]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":56.179466721039994,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,36.03063295811035,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,63.969367041889655],[0,23.608101742816768,0,0,8.431464908148847,0,0,0,0,0,67.96043334903439],[0,0,61.80131251414347,38.19868748585653,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":12.422531215293583,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":56.211265607646794,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-47288","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Fundacion","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.33163421973837615,32.13843869850303,5.125618000201797],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-47288|2023|Ordinary election|1997","CO-ALC-47288|2019|Ordinary election|1998","CO-ALC-47288|2015|Ordinary election|1999"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-47288|2023|Ordinary election|1997","CO-ALC-47288|2019|Ordinary election|1998","CO-ALC-47288|2015|Ordinary election|1999"],"shares":[[0.3168642142111404,0.31354787201375667],[0.5743226524805146,0.25293826549548437],[0.37998183836141664,0.32872565835939865]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":48.23463029292944,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,31.354787201375668,2.131056930541055,0.5772891973223607,0,0,0,2.7298409384020146,0,0,63.2070257323589],[7.998267969813188,57.432265248051465,0,25.293826549548434,0,0,0,0,0,0,9.27564023258691],[0,37.99818383614166,0,32.87256583593987,0,0,0,0,0,0,29.129250327918474]],"volatility_latest":58.79228336871506,"volatility_previous":27.432349381722993,"volatility_mean":43.112316375219024,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-47318","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Guamal","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.4298220017508,5.506814977283412,7.313547070329108],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-47318|2023|Ordinary election|2000","CO-ALC-47318|2019|Ordinary election|2001","CO-ALC-47318|2015|Ordinary election|2002"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-47318|2023|Ordinary election|2000","CO-ALC-47318|2019|Ordinary election|2001","CO-ALC-47318|2015|Ordinary election|2002"],"shares":[[0.3603005544207762,0.34600233440326816],[0.4233902553658154,0.36832210559298134],[0.391444850752615,0.3183093800493239]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":83.79353799365794,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[36.03005544207762,0,26.028596440035017,0,0,34.60023344032682,0,0,0,0,3.341114677560548],[36.83221055929813,0,42.339025536581545,10.003133322888925,1.331662227792574,0,0,0.9399968666771111,0,0,8.55397148676171],[29.024576919806105,0,31.830938004932392,39.1444850752615,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":34.60023344032682,"volatility_previous":29.141351752372575,"volatility_mean":31.870792596349695,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-47460","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Nueva Granada","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[23.003062660375793,4.679582712369594,5.579815623483739],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-47460|2023|Ordinary election|2003","CO-ALC-47460|2019|Ordinary election|2004","CO-ALC-47460|2015|Ordinary election|2005"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-47460|2023|Ordinary election|2003","CO-ALC-47460|2019|Ordinary election|2004","CO-ALC-47460|2015|Ordinary election|2005"],"shares":[[0.5083188477775018,0.2782882211737439],[0.34177844013909586,0.2949826130153999],[0.5278990781174187,0.4721009218825813]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":21.181530138576367,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,50.83188477775018,18.54151146428276,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,30.62660375796706],[29.49826130153999,0,34.177844013909585,0,0,0.5365126676602087,22.722305017386983,0,0,0,13.065076999503228],[0,52.78990781174187,47.21009218825813,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":68.39341153621402,"volatility_previous":65.82215598609041,"volatility_mean":67.1077837611522,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-47541","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Pedraza","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[35.344302254722734,3.2836608202558324,5.473476853806105],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-47541|2023|Ordinary election|2006","CO-ALC-47541|2019|Ordinary election|2007","CO-ALC-47541|2015|Ordinary election|2008"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-47541|2023|Ordinary election|2006","CO-ALC-47541|2019|Ordinary election|2007","CO-ALC-47541|2015|Ordinary election|2008"],"shares":[[0.6708104814137721,0.31736745886654477],[0.5164183041012792,0.48358169589872085],[0.5273673842690305,0.4726326157309695]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,67.08104814137721,0,31.73674588665448,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.182205971968312],[0,51.641830410127916,0,48.358169589872084,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[0,52.73673842690305,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,47.26326157309695]],"volatility_latest":16.621423703217605,"volatility_previous":48.358169589872084,"volatility_mean":32.489796646544846,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-47545","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Pijiño Del Carmen","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[19.09832664914949,34.56521739130435,7.332854061826026],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-47545|2023|Ordinary election|2009","CO-ALC-47545|2019|Ordinary election|2010","CO-ALC-47545|2015|Ordinary election|2011"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-47545|2023|Ordinary election|2009","CO-ALC-47545|2019|Ordinary election|2010","CO-ALC-47545|2015|Ordinary election|2011"],"shares":[[0.5148665468123358,0.32388328032084085],[0.6570652173913044,0.3114130434782609],[0.5269590222861251,0.45363048166786485]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,51.486654681233574,0,0,0,0,0,0,48.51334531876642],[31.141304347826086,0,0,65.70652173913044,0,0,0,0,0,0,3.152173913043478],[45.363048166786484,0,0,52.69590222861251,1.9410496046010064,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":45.36117140572294,"volatility_previous":16.162793423561403,"volatility_mean":30.761982414642173,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-47551","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Pivijay","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.4469216892548253,22.622761964191426,2.038638061692822],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-47551|2023|Ordinary election|2012","CO-ALC-47551|2019|Ordinary election|2013","CO-ALC-47551|2015|Ordinary election|2014"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-47551|2023|Ordinary election|2012","CO-ALC-47551|2019|Ordinary election|2013","CO-ALC-47551|2015|Ordinary election|2014"],"shares":[[0.3375734307784819,0.3131042138859337],[0.5884894158306533,0.362261796188739],[0.43142277724410294,0.41103639662717467]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":57.70577295510198,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,17.08682177714048,0,0,31.310421388593365,6.790323326703363,0,0,0,0,44.812433507562794],[0,0,0,36.2261796188739,0,0,0,0,0,0,63.77382038112609],[0,7.759632831678942,5.555555555555555,43.14227772441029,0,2.038638061692817,0,0,0.40025616394492475,0,41.10363966271747]],"volatility_latest":55.187566492437206,"volatility_previous":22.670180718408627,"volatility_mean":38.928873605422915,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-47555","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Plato","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.723346452579154,12.94561877614482,37.94057794057794],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-47555|2023|Ordinary election|2015","CO-ALC-47555|2019|Ordinary election|2016","CO-ALC-47555|2015|Ordinary election|2017"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-47555|2023|Ordinary election|2015","CO-ALC-47555|2019|Ordinary election|2016","CO-ALC-47555|2015|Ordinary election|2017"],"shares":[[0.42656124830204456,0.299327783776253],[0.5027949505793506,0.37333876281790246],[0.5663817663817664,0.18697598697598697]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":23.441243507756337,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,4.803037163456515,0,42.656124830204455,0,19.905262791264672,0,0.0383128417679635,0,0,32.59726237330639],[0,0,0,0,0,0,2.6172583570873282,0.17769222226335468,0,0,97.20504942064932],[0,3.410663410663411,56.63817663817664,18.697598697598696,0,0,0,0,18.25803825803826,2.9955229955229954,0]],"volatility_latest":67.36442478492565,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":83.68221239246282,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-47570","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Puebloviejo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.85991058122206,19.422905809075885,6.5712658408087705],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-47570|2023|Ordinary election|2018","CO-ALC-47570|2019|Ordinary election|2019","CO-ALC-47570|2015|Ordinary election|2020"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-47570|2023|Ordinary election|2018","CO-ALC-47570|2019|Ordinary election|2019","CO-ALC-47570|2015|Ordinary election|2020"],"shares":[[0.5169001490312966,0.458301043219076],[0.5176051862209229,0.323376128130164],[0.38744126441691584,0.32172860600882813]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":50.00027662231561,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[51.69001490312966,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,48.30998509687034],[0,0,32.3376128130164,51.760518622092285,0,2.904537943307487,0,7.073852802847337,5.923477818736494,0,0],[0.20646447387156486,38.744126441691584,10.494090844368504,0,2.0219279510180836,0,0,0.8685746831838246,15.313968389577104,0,32.35084721628934]],"volatility_latest":100.0,"volatility_previous":82.71385665371118,"volatility_mean":91.35692832685558,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-47605","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Remolino","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.2117015752120466,15.830857941638996,8.565225971975522],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-47605|2023|Ordinary election|2021","CO-ALC-47605|2019|Ordinary election|2022","CO-ALC-47605|2015|Ordinary election|2023"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-47605|2023|Ordinary election|2021","CO-ALC-47605|2019|Ordinary election|2022","CO-ALC-47605|2015|Ordinary election|2023"],"shares":[[0.3335641336333737,0.3214471178812533],[0.5131923816180325,0.3548838022016425],[0.43556344977304123,0.34991119005328597]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":68.3359953759176,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,32.14471178812533,33.356413363337374,19.24874502336853,0,0,0,0,0,0,15.250129825168774],[0,13.1923816180325,0,51.31923816180325,35.48838022016425,0,0,0,0,0,0],[0,20.939411880797316,34.9911190053286,0,0,0.25656206828498124,0.25656206828498124,0,0,0,43.55634497730412]],"volatility_latest":67.55887335859897,"volatility_previous":86.8076183819675,"volatility_mean":77.18324587028323,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-47660","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Sabanas De San Angel","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.7934437013485365,27.66687078995713,9.226692363285956],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-47660|2023|Ordinary election|2024","CO-ALC-47660|2019|Ordinary election|2025","CO-ALC-47660|2015|Ordinary election|2026"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-47660|2023|Ordinary election|2024","CO-ALC-47660|2019|Ordinary election|2025","CO-ALC-47660|2015|Ordinary election|2026"],"shares":[[0.49073566494901877,0.4528012279355334],[0.6036742192284139,0.32700551132884265],[0.46615273428089615,0.3738858106480366]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":42.50601652937572,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,49.073566494901876,0,0,0,0,0,2.1488871834228704,0,0,48.77754632167525],[0,60.367421922841395,0,0,32.700551132884264,1.6411512553582364,0,5.290875688916105,0,0,0],[0,46.615273428089615,0,0,10.33485907010359,0,0,5.661286437003132,0,0,37.38858106480366]],"volatility_latest":48.77754632167525,"volatility_previous":37.758991812890685,"volatility_mean":43.26826906728297,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-47675","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Salamina","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[25.618848792126457,7.104259376986654,0.7699194270367116],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-47675|2023|Ordinary election|2027","CO-ALC-47675|2019|Ordinary election|2028","CO-ALC-47675|2015|Ordinary election|2029"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-47675|2023|Ordinary election|2027","CO-ALC-47675|2019|Ordinary election|2028","CO-ALC-47675|2015|Ordinary election|2029"],"shares":[[0.6280942439606323,0.3719057560393677],[0.4972981563890655,0.42625556261919895],[0.5038495971351835,0.49615040286481643]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":12.102104844622307,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0.12714558169103624,42.6255562619199,0,49.72981563890655,0,0,1.0966306420851875,0,0,0,6.42085187539733],[0,50.384959713518356,0,49.615040286481644,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":7.75940345159846,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-47692","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"San Sebastian De Buenavista","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[21.7135047407534,7.546846923932577,15.69123079914447],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-47692|2023|Ordinary election|2030","CO-ALC-47692|2019|Ordinary election|2031","CO-ALC-47692|2015|Ordinary election|2032"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-47692|2023|Ordinary election|2030","CO-ALC-47692|2019|Ordinary election|2031","CO-ALC-47692|2015|Ordinary election|2032"],"shares":[[0.5106346630221236,0.29349961561458954],[0.41576110207923334,0.34029263283990757],[0.5756367878670037,0.418724479875559]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":15.693599992268704,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,51.063466302212355,0,0,0,0,0.5808490646621679,0.06833518407790211,0,0,48.287349449047575],[0,0,0,22.803114571746384,0,0.08556515786771626,0,0,0,0,77.11132027038589],[0,41.8724479875559,57.56367878670037,0,0,0,0.495819560567762,0,0,0,0.06805366517596734]],"volatility_latest":51.71265055095242,"volatility_previous":99.93194633482403,"volatility_mean":75.82229844288823,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-47703","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"San Zenon","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":2,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2015],"gaps":[31.369073992024813,5.837434244018333,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. MISSING ordinary-cycle return(s): [2019]; no zero or substitute election inserted.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-47703|2023|Ordinary election|2033","CO-ALC-47703|2015|Ordinary election|2034"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-47703|2023|Ordinary election|2033","CO-ALC-47703|2015|Ordinary election|2034"],"shares":[[0.5911977551321814,0.2775070152119332],[0.5124724249109113,0.45409808247072797],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[27.750701521193324,0,0,0,59.11977551321814,0,0,0.5169103529759268,0,0,12.612612612612613],[3.3429492618360768,45.409808247072796,0,51.24724249109113,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],null],"volatility_latest":96.65705073816393,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":2},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-47707","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Santa Ana","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.87900355871886,2.39551917277036,1.4726977144496516],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-47707|2023|Ordinary election|2035","CO-ALC-47707|2019|Ordinary election|2036","CO-ALC-47707|2015|Ordinary election|2037"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-47707|2023|Ordinary election|2035","CO-ALC-47707|2019|Ordinary election|2036","CO-ALC-47707|2015|Ordinary election|2037"],"shares":[[0.4022933965994464,0.2635033610122578],[0.3282205945713055,0.3042654028436019],[0.49134551018456535,0.47661853304006885]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":54.03336170746306,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[40.22933965994464,0,5.875840253064452,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,53.894820086990904],[20.3446790176648,0,32.82205945713055,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,46.83326152520465],[3.2035956775365784,47.66185330400688,0,49.134551018456534,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":26.946219204066097,"volatility_previous":96.79640432246342,"volatility_mean":61.87131176326476,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-47720","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Santa Barbara De Pinto","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.594362745098039,7.125777140124349,7.578910856746447],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-47720|2023|Ordinary election|2038","CO-ALC-47720|2019|Ordinary election|2039","CO-ALC-47720|2015|Ordinary election|2040"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-47720|2023|Ordinary election|2038","CO-ALC-47720|2019|Ordinary election|2039","CO-ALC-47720|2015|Ordinary election|2040"],"shares":[[0.44577205882352944,0.28982843137254904],[0.48637015781922527,0.4151123864179818],[0.537287547693375,0.46149843912591054]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":38.73879062614615,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,44.57720588235294,28.982843137254903,0,0,0,0,0,0,26.439950980392155],[6.791009086561454,0,0,48.63701578192253,0,2.9810298102981028,0,0,0,0,41.590945321217916],[0.08671522719389525,46.14984391259105,0,53.7287547693375,0.0346860908775581,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":44.57720588235294,"volatility_previous":51.27626899088358,"volatility_mean":47.92673743661826,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-47745","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Sitionuevo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2026,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,29.693511156706847,47.44642042863657],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2026-04-19 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-47745|CO-ALC-47745-2026-04-19-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6778","CO-ALC-47745|2023|Ordinary election|2041","CO-ALC-47745|2019|Ordinary election|2042"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-47745|CO-ALC-47745-2026-04-19-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6778","CO-ALC-47745|2023|Ordinary election|2041","CO-ALC-47745|2019|Ordinary election|2042","CO-ALC-47745|2015|Ordinary election|2043"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.6183636829956399,0.32142857142857145],[0.6298069615443077,0.15534275725794194]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,32.142857142857146,0,0,2.3980507822518593,0,0,0,65.459092074891],[0,9.986320109439124,0,0.44839641282869735,0,1.3375892992856058,0,0,0.3495972032223742,0,87.87809697522421]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":34.09251151228031,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-47798","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Tenerife","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.49061433447099034,3.032448377581119,5.123745819397989],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-47798|2023|Ordinary election|2044","CO-ALC-47798|2019|Ordinary election|2045","CO-ALC-47798|2015|Ordinary election|2046"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-47798|2023|Ordinary election|2044","CO-ALC-47798|2019|Ordinary election|2045","CO-ALC-47798|2015|Ordinary election|2046"],"shares":[[0.490934300341297,0.4860281569965871],[0.5142182890855458,0.4838938053097345],[0.514247491638796,0.46301003344481606]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":91.41761152051635,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,48.602815699658706,49.093430034129696,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2.303754266211604],[0,48.389380530973455,51.42182890855457,0,0,0,0.1887905604719764,0,0,0,0],[0,51.424749163879596,0,46.30100334448161,2.274247491638796,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":2.5171894348968546,"volatility_previous":51.610619469026545,"volatility_mean":27.0639044519617,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-47960","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Zapayan","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.812695701679473,7.294011706438539,5.532459226095298],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-47960|2023|Ordinary election|2047","CO-ALC-47960|2019|Ordinary election|2048","CO-ALC-47960|2015|Ordinary election|2049"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-47960|2023|Ordinary election|2047","CO-ALC-47960|2019|Ordinary election|2048","CO-ALC-47960|2015|Ordinary election|2049"],"shares":[[0.5059777967549103,0.3478508397381156],[0.3821101605883236,0.3091700435239382],[0.5276622961304764,0.4723377038695235]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":38.85466572225612,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[50.59777967549103,34.78508397381156,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,14.61713635069741],[0,30.871979588773826,30.917004352393818,38.21101605883236,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[0,52.76622961304765,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,47.23377038695235]],"volatility_latest":69.12802041122617,"volatility_previous":69.12802041122617,"volatility_mean":69.12802041122617,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-47980","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Zona Bananera (Sevilla)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.611131373550222,20.53512198717476,18.61352224514421],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-47980|2023|Ordinary election|2050","CO-ALC-47980|2019|Ordinary election|2051","CO-ALC-47980|2015|Ordinary election|2052"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-47980|2023|Ordinary election|2050","CO-ALC-47980|2019|Ordinary election|2051","CO-ALC-47980|2015|Ordinary election|2052"],"shares":[[0.2936756875045591,0.20756437376905684],[0.4538954816834967,0.24854426181174907],[0.58226616324783,0.39613094079638783]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":34.057161776015086,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,16.693413086293674,0,0,5.54380334087096,0,0,5.157196002626012,0,72.60558757020934],[24.854426181174908,9.714749023365519,0,0,45.38954816834967,0,0,0,0,0,20.041276627109898],[0,0,39.613094079638785,58.226616324782995,0.6539254992020552,0,0,0,0,0,1.5063640963761629]],"volatility_latest":79.95872337289009,"volatility_previous":97.83971040442178,"volatility_mean":88.89921688865593,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-50001","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Villavicencio","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.7360796804501533,2.0396385236902113,20.23361936411884],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-50001|2023|Ordinary election|2053","CO-ALC-50001|2019|Ordinary election|2054","CO-ALC-50001|2015|Ordinary election|2055"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-50001|2023|Ordinary election|2053","CO-ALC-50001|2019|Ordinary election|2054","CO-ALC-50001|2015|Ordinary election|2055"],"shares":[[0.3339794588541936,0.29661866204969206],[0.2299062526392838,0.20950986740238167],[0.5115222459203412,0.3091860522791528]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":75.6154934910548,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.3095756743150991,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,99.6904243256849],[17.930707656503664,0,0.8295562249561292,18.6903521860308,0,0,5.874928446083538,0,0,5.936394433339903,50.738061053085964],[0,0,0,0,12.646198105252715,2.6977828480730124,0,0,2.232528148405337,0.3526610783195278,82.07082981994941]],"volatility_latest":48.95236327259894,"volatility_previous":48.90927786859451,"volatility_mean":48.93082057059672,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-50006","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Acacias","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[23.009760636718212,2.384272488284374,5.845106020698648],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-50006|2023|Ordinary election|2056","CO-ALC-50006|2019|Ordinary election|2057","CO-ALC-50006|2015|Ordinary election|2058"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-50006|2023|Ordinary election|2056","CO-ALC-50006|2019|Ordinary election|2057","CO-ALC-50006|2015|Ordinary election|2058"],"shares":[[0.43792195450315785,0.20782434813597575],[0.3095210881243571,0.28567836324151336],[0.23646473514779046,0.178013674940804]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":24.471756347069483,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[43.79219545031579,0,0,0.19996436278683008,0,0.9404264586509335,0,0.6058326238888119,0,0,54.46158110435763],[0,0,30.952108812435707,0,28.567836324151333,0,0,1.5956109269630816,0.4709109612527146,0,38.413532975197164],[7.228563067017852,0,17.8013674940804,6.443717242663687,10.210977199563679,23.646473514779046,1.4978583020725251,8.85412509644292,7.124803788543911,0,17.19211429483598]],"volatility_latest":60.98063440091402,"volatility_previous":52.72901912330414,"volatility_mean":56.854826762109084,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-50110","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Barranca De Upia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[36.58832081415072,16.438746438746442,28.256513026052097],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-50110|2023|Ordinary election|2059","CO-ALC-50110|2019|Ordinary election|2060","CO-ALC-50110|2015|Ordinary election|2061"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-50110|2023|Ordinary election|2059","CO-ALC-50110|2019|Ordinary election|2060","CO-ALC-50110|2015|Ordinary election|2061"],"shares":[[0.6646474436636782,0.2987642355221711],[0.4943019943019943,0.32991452991452985],[0.6412825651302605,0.3587174348697395]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-50124","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Cabuyaro","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.22583265637693,21.99852688436042,6.4685314685314665],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-50124|2023|Ordinary election|2062","CO-ALC-50124|2019|Ordinary election|2063","CO-ALC-50124|2015|Ordinary election|2064"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-50124|2023|Ordinary election|2062","CO-ALC-50124|2019|Ordinary election|2063","CO-ALC-50124|2015|Ordinary election|2064"],"shares":[[0.5393988627132412,0.417140536149472],[0.43186840166953105,0.21188313282592686],[0.377039627039627,0.3123543123543124]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":27.09044597006285,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,19.322366805794253,0,0,21.188313282592684,0,0,15.050331451018906,0,0,44.43898846059415],[0,37.7039627039627,0,0,31.060606060606062,0,0,0,0,0,31.235431235431236]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":28.253888676181823,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-50150","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Castilla La Nueva","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.765182186234817,11.97783461210571,28.33252544837615],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-50150|2023|Ordinary election|2065","CO-ALC-50150|2019|Ordinary election|2066","CO-ALC-50150|2015|Ordinary election|2067"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-50150|2023|Ordinary election|2065","CO-ALC-50150|2019|Ordinary election|2066","CO-ALC-50150|2015|Ordinary election|2067"],"shares":[[0.39969635627530364,0.3620445344129555],[0.5598891730605285,0.44011082693947146],[0.5081192438196801,0.22479398933591857]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":56.571438798948904,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0.1214574898785425,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,99.87854251012145],[0,0,0,0,44.011082693947145,0,0,0,0,0,55.988917306052855],[0,0,0,0,19.01357246728066,22.479398933591856,0,0,0,7.695104217159477,50.811924381968005]],"volatility_latest":44.01108269394714,"volatility_previous":30.174503150751335,"volatility_mean":37.09279292234923,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-50223","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Cubarral","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.675234206101365,4.586188719030048,19.221902017291068],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-50223|2023|Ordinary election|2068","CO-ALC-50223|2019|Ordinary election|2069","CO-ALC-50223|2015|Ordinary election|2070"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-50223|2023|Ordinary election|2068","CO-ALC-50223|2019|Ordinary election|2069","CO-ALC-50223|2015|Ordinary election|2070"],"shares":[[0.4069180879173673,0.3701657458563536],[0.2311544544016869,0.1852925672113864],[0.5063400576368876,0.31412103746397696]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":72.48406329450529,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[11.866442469373048,0,0,0,6.894066778765313,0,0,0,0,0,81.23949075186164],[0,0,0,0,17.23774380600949,0,23.11544544016869,0,0,5.77227200843437,53.874538745387454],[11.26801152737752,0,0,6.685878962536023,50.63400576368876,0,0,0,0,0,31.412103746397694]],"volatility_latest":39.23139447584723,"volatility_previous":51.35015244759282,"volatility_mean":45.29077346172002,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-50226","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Cumaral","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.17434884957096,11.571463594018141,21.165545949407623],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-50226|2023|Ordinary election|2071","CO-ALC-50226|2019|Ordinary election|2072","CO-ALC-50226|2015|Ordinary election|2073"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-50226|2023|Ordinary election|2071","CO-ALC-50226|2019|Ordinary election|2072","CO-ALC-50226|2015|Ordinary election|2073"],"shares":[[0.49631710836054366,0.3345736198648341],[0.34003432213777884,0.22431968619759743],[0.36460668160956344,0.15295122211548726]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":23.536985085556093,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[5.5078859197515735,0,0,0,21.255209610198577,12.298766037427473,0,0,0,3.1543679006292393,57.783770531993135],[0,15.295122211548724,12.49866581278685,11.847582452769773,0,8.688227132031166,0,36.460668160956345,0,15.209734229907141,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":88.15740496733959,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-50245","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"El Calvario","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.08058017727638855,6.049290515309934,20.533141210374637],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-50245|2023|Ordinary election|2074","CO-ALC-50245|2019|Ordinary election|2075","CO-ALC-50245|2015|Ordinary election|2076"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-50245|2023|Ordinary election|2074","CO-ALC-50245|2019|Ordinary election|2075","CO-ALC-50245|2015|Ordinary election|2076"],"shares":[[0.500402900886382,0.49959709911361805],[0.5302464525765497,0.4697535474234503],[0.6023054755043228,0.3969740634005764]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":80.41775309001862,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[50.040290088638194,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,49.959709911361806],null,[0,0.07204610951008646,0,39.69740634005764,60.23054755043228,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-50251","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"El Castillo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.719207173194903,9.475000000000001,34.83852529294084],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-50251|2023|Ordinary election|2077","CO-ALC-50251|2019|Ordinary election|2078","CO-ALC-50251|2015|Ordinary election|2079"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-50251|2023|Ordinary election|2077","CO-ALC-50251|2019|Ordinary election|2078","CO-ALC-50251|2015|Ordinary election|2079"],"shares":[[0.43133553563001414,0.3841434638980651],[0.34075000000000005,0.24600000000000002],[0.6741926264647041,0.32580737353529576]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":54.21061583394488,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,38.41434638980651,0,0,0,0,9.792354884379424,0,0,0,51.79329872581406],[0.05,0,0,0,0,20.45,24.6,2.95,0,0,51.95],[0,67.41926264647041,0,0,0,32.58073735352958,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":38.41434638980652,"volatility_previous":79.55,"volatility_mean":58.982173194903254,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-50270","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"El Dorado","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.972213033410526,6.6893424036281175,24.228250701590277],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-50270|2023|Ordinary election|2080","CO-ALC-50270|2019|Ordinary election|2081","CO-ALC-50270|2015|Ordinary election|2082"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-50270|2023|Ordinary election|2080","CO-ALC-50270|2019|Ordinary election|2081","CO-ALC-50270|2015|Ordinary election|2082"],"shares":[[0.5398610651670527,0.4601389348329474],[0.3907785336356765,0.3238851095993953],[0.6178671655753041,0.37558465855940126]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":53.93522194353111,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,53.98610651670526,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,46.01389348329474],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,28.533635676492818,71.46636432350718],[61.786716557530404,37.55846585594013,0.04677268475210477,0,0.608044901777362,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":53.98610651670526,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":76.99305325835263,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-50287","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Fuente De Oro","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[22.33606557377049,7.432432432432428,20.21441889372281],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-50287|2023|Ordinary election|2083","CO-ALC-50287|2019|Ordinary election|2084","CO-ALC-50287|2015|Ordinary election|2085"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-50287|2023|Ordinary election|2083","CO-ALC-50287|2019|Ordinary election|2084","CO-ALC-50287|2015|Ordinary election|2085"],"shares":[[0.5860655737704917,0.36270491803278687],[0.49387177875549965,0.41954745443117536],[0.5097886886264761,0.30764449968924795]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":11.735945183178487,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,36.27049180327869,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,63.72950819672131],[0,0,0,41.95474544311754,0,6.191074795725958,0,0,0,0,51.8541797611565],[0,30.764449968924797,0,50.97886886264761,17.184586699813547,0.3262896208825357,0,0.7458048477315102,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":48.1458202388435,"volatility_previous":57.71896493599993,"volatility_mean":52.93239258742172,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-50313","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Granada","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.8062170255240275,22.142812362861267,5.994801997127421],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-50313|2023|Ordinary election|2086","CO-ALC-50313|2019|Ordinary election|2087","CO-ALC-50313|2015|Ordinary election|2088"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-50313|2023|Ordinary election|2086","CO-ALC-50313|2019|Ordinary election|2087","CO-ALC-50313|2015|Ordinary election|2088"],"shares":[[0.30931127905318695,0.2812491087979467],[0.4058993166572629,0.18447119302865023],[0.32012174269885785,0.2601737227275836]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":55.36972938057231,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1191147890414394,0,0,99.88088521095857],[0.7728609534231585,16.24375897681417,0,32.01217426988578,26.01737227275836,0,0,0,0,0.05471581971137405,24.899117707407157]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":75.10088229259284,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-50318","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Guamal","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.814811021202495,16.43344900929139,5.810736026563365],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-50318|2023|Ordinary election|2089","CO-ALC-50318|2019|Ordinary election|2090","CO-ALC-50318|2015|Ordinary election|2091"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-50318|2023|Ordinary election|2089","CO-ALC-50318|2019|Ordinary election|2090","CO-ALC-50318|2015|Ordinary election|2091"],"shares":[[0.41923589060739525,0.2610877803953703],[0.4748684652412403,0.3105339751483264],[0.3511344770337576,0.293027116768124]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":25.000025409173755,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,3.4825361057052135,0,0,0,0,96.5174638942948],null,[0,0,10.985058107360265,0,0,29.302711676812397,0,0,0,24.598782512451578,35.11344770337576]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-50325","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Mapiripan","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.815402704291596,5.030181086519111,5.6175595238095255],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-50325|2023|Ordinary election|2092","CO-ALC-50325|2019|Ordinary election|2093","CO-ALC-50325|2015|Ordinary election|2094"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-50325|2023|Ordinary election|2092","CO-ALC-50325|2019|Ordinary election|2093","CO-ALC-50325|2015|Ordinary election|2094"],"shares":[[0.3609641387419165,0.22281011169900058],[0.32796780684104626,0.2776659959758552],[0.38020833333333337,0.3240327380952381]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":48.19974049544179,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,22.281011169900058,17.842445620223398,0,0,13.69782480893592,10.08230452674897,0,0,0,36.096413874191654],[0,0,0,0,0,0,20.72434607645875,0,0,0,79.27565392354126],[0,38.020833333333336,17.485119047619047,12.09077380952381,0,0,32.40327380952381,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":53.821281599059375,"volatility_previous":79.27565392354126,"volatility_mean":66.54846776130032,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-50330","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Mesetas","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.563197310102396,6.340302566717661,0.445387062566283],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-50330|2023|Ordinary election|2095","CO-ALC-50330|2019|Ordinary election|2096","CO-ALC-50330|2015|Ordinary election|2097"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-50330|2023|Ordinary election|2095","CO-ALC-50330|2019|Ordinary election|2096","CO-ALC-50330|2015|Ordinary election|2097"],"shares":[[0.3897294818890417,0.33409750878801775],[0.3754886962434132,0.3120856705762366],[0.3435843054082715,0.3391304347826087]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":73.57726068833318,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,38.97294818890417,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,61.02705181109582],[0,4.946455889852117,0,0,0,1.0538840727519974,37.54886962434132,0,0,17.54207037225905,38.908720040795515],[0,2.820784729586426,2.990455991516437,0,1.8027571580063626,34.35843054082715,33.91304347826087,0,1.2725344644750796,15.461293743372217,7.3806998939554616]],"volatility_latest":56.14482406935237,"volatility_previous":39.37029408207303,"volatility_mean":47.7575590757127,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-50350","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"La Macarena","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[24.568574023614893,31.848357791754015,8.379544054220577],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-50350|2023|Ordinary election|2098","CO-ALC-50350|2019|Ordinary election|2099","CO-ALC-50350|2015|Ordinary election|2100"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-50350|2023|Ordinary election|2098","CO-ALC-50350|2019|Ordinary election|2099","CO-ALC-50350|2015|Ordinary election|2100"],"shares":[[0.4865273993339388,0.24084165909778987],[0.5595737246680642,0.2410901467505241],[0.3433970014376668,0.25960156089546105]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,11.519830457160158,0,15.743263699666969,0,0,72.73690584317288],[0,24.10901467505241,0,0,0,9.57372466806429,0,0,0,4.489867225716282,61.82739343116701],[34.339700143766684,25.960156089546107,0,0,21.256931608133087,0,0,13.000616142945164,0,0,5.442596015608955]],"volatility_latest":28.5988819007687,"volatility_previous":70.44838930933862,"volatility_mean":49.52363560505366,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-50370","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Uribe","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.06012024048096265,14.308093994778066,2.1617852161785223],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-50370|2023|Ordinary election|2101","CO-ALC-50370|2019|Ordinary election|2102","CO-ALC-50370|2015|Ordinary election|2103"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-50370|2023|Ordinary election|2101","CO-ALC-50370|2019|Ordinary election|2102","CO-ALC-50370|2015|Ordinary election|2103"],"shares":[[0.418436873747495,0.4178356713426854],[0.4347258485639686,0.29164490861618797],[0.45781032078103207,0.4361924686192469]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":77.27660567830075,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,8.590078328981724,29.1644908616188,0,0,0,62.24543080939947],[0,45.78103207810321,0,2.2315202231520224,0,0.2789400278940028,0,43.61924686192469,0,8.089260808926081,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":99.72105997210599,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-50400","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Lejanias","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.958980624890906,1.9992455677103003,13.06590257879656],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-50400|2023|Ordinary election|2104","CO-ALC-50400|2019|Ordinary election|2105","CO-ALC-50400|2015|Ordinary election|2106"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-50400|2023|Ordinary election|2104","CO-ALC-50400|2019|Ordinary election|2105","CO-ALC-50400|2015|Ordinary election|2106"],"shares":[[0.534473730144877,0.38488392389596787],[0.3095058468502452,0.2895133911731422],[0.35787965616045847,0.22722063037249285]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":45.59123848436355,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,4.084482457671496,0,0,0,0,95.91551754232852],[0,25.405507355714825,0,14.202187853640135,0,0,30.95058468502452,0,0,0,29.44172010562052],[0,35.787965616045845,0,3.1232091690544412,22.722063037249285,22.578796561604584,0,7.020057306590258,0,0,8.767908309455587]],"volatility_latest":70.55827989437948,"volatility_previous":62.70337516577515,"volatility_mean":66.63082753007731,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-50450","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Puerto Concordia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.545765286745155,1.020871143375686,15.258408531583267],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-50450|2023|Ordinary election|2107","CO-ALC-50450|2019|Ordinary election|2108","CO-ALC-50450|2015|Ordinary election|2109"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-50450|2023|Ordinary election|2107","CO-ALC-50450|2019|Ordinary election|2108","CO-ALC-50450|2015|Ordinary election|2109"],"shares":[[0.42973794151158373,0.31428028864413216],[0.4916061705989111,0.48139745916515425],[0.40989882417281925,0.2573147388569866]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":56.202193158909374,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,2.525636156475503,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,97.4743638435245],[0,48.13974591651542,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,51.86025408348458],[0,0,19.22340716434236,25.73147388569866,0,0,40.989882417281926,14.055236532677057,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":48.13974591651542,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":74.06987295825772,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-50568","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Puerto Gaitan","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[24.869202280877076,12.211733779424062,3.49217391304348],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-50568|2023|Ordinary election|2110","CO-ALC-50568|2019|Ordinary election|2111","CO-ALC-50568|2015|Ordinary election|2112"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-50568|2023|Ordinary election|2110","CO-ALC-50568|2019|Ordinary election|2111","CO-ALC-50568|2015|Ordinary election|2112"],"shares":[[0.4382752336723296,0.18958321086355887],[0.43489863384713423,0.3127812960528936],[0.3858086956521739,0.3508869565217391]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":5.328705531710942,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0.3115631062253836,0,0,0,0,0,0,99.68843689377461],[0,43.48986338471342,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,56.51013661528657],[0.20869565217391303,12.64,0,35.08869565217391,3.457391304347826,6.281739130434783,0,38.58086956521739,0,0,3.742608695652174]],"volatility_latest":43.48986338471342,"volatility_previous":83.61739130434782,"volatility_mean":63.553627344530625,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-50573","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Puerto Lopez","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.672514619883039,0.16101065147386606,18.756322924394684],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-50573|2023|Ordinary election|2113","CO-ALC-50573|2019|Ordinary election|2114","CO-ALC-50573|2015|Ordinary election|2115"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-50573|2023|Ordinary election|2113","CO-ALC-50573|2019|Ordinary election|2114","CO-ALC-50573|2015|Ordinary election|2115"],"shares":[[0.3572514619883041,0.2905263157894737],[0.2578028238791181,0.2561927173643795],[0.5069805085317326,0.3194172792877858]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":70.36277870094274,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-50577","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Puerto Lleras","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.997491800115764,8.729490954985277,3.425655976676385],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-50577|2023|Ordinary election|2116","CO-ALC-50577|2019|Ordinary election|2117","CO-ALC-50577|2015|Ordinary election|2118"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-50577|2023|Ordinary election|2116","CO-ALC-50577|2019|Ordinary election|2117","CO-ALC-50577|2015|Ordinary election|2118"],"shares":[[0.30175573991896587,0.1917808219178082],[0.292175010517459,0.20488010096760623],[0.250242954324587,0.21598639455782312]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":52.20046017883659,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,16.341886938066757,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,83.65811306193324],[0,20.488010096760622,0,0,9.718132099284812,19.078670593184686,19.204880100967607,2.2928060580563736,0,0,29.2175010517459],[0.923226433430515,25.024295432458697,3.9601554907677357,4.057337220602527,0,1.9922254616132167,21.40427599611273,0,0,21.598639455782312,21.039844509232264]],"volatility_latest":70.7824989482541,"volatility_previous":37.27503983142629,"volatility_mean":54.02876938984019,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-50590","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Puerto Rico","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.596530677802761,18.173122907699664,15.150354338249372],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-50590|2023|Ordinary election|2119","CO-ALC-50590|2019|Ordinary election|2120","CO-ALC-50590|2015|Ordinary election|2121"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-50590|2023|Ordinary election|2119","CO-ALC-50590|2019|Ordinary election|2120","CO-ALC-50590|2015|Ordinary election|2121"],"shares":[[0.46321876003854806,0.34725345326052043],[0.5609756097560975,0.3792443806791009],[0.5757517716912468,0.42424822830875314]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":30.375546435917535,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,1.7828461291358817,0,46.321876003854804,0,0,0,0,51.89527786700932],[0,56.09756097560975,0,37.92443806791009,2.518731069663638,0,0,3.395504543280727,0,0,0.0637653435357883],[0,42.424822830875314,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,57.575177169124686]],"volatility_latest":98.15338852732833,"volatility_previous":57.511411825588894,"volatility_mean":77.8324001764586,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-50606","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Restrepo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.392742305925584,21.839080459770116,7.740174672489083],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-50606|2023|Ordinary election|2122","CO-ALC-50606|2019|Ordinary election|2123","CO-ALC-50606|2015|Ordinary election|2124"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-50606|2023|Ordinary election|2122","CO-ALC-50606|2019|Ordinary election|2123","CO-ALC-50606|2015|Ordinary election|2124"],"shares":[[0.34515388148828663,0.2912264584290308],[0.5231800766283525,0.3047892720306513],[0.5006550218340611,0.42325327510917027]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":47.19306505632353,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-50680","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"San Carlos De Guaroa","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.8411967779056368,27.840587902769926,2.3263712005433845],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-50680|2023|Ordinary election|2125","CO-ALC-50680|2019|Ordinary election|2126","CO-ALC-50680|2015|Ordinary election|2127"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-50680|2023|Ordinary election|2125","CO-ALC-50680|2019|Ordinary election|2126","CO-ALC-50680|2015|Ordinary election|2127"],"shares":[[0.45037399309551207,0.43196202531645567],[0.5870548332391181,0.30864895421141886],[0.4145016131771099,0.391237901171676]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":51.55234221185652,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,11.766398158803222,0,0,0,0,0,88.23360184119677],[0,0,0,0,10.429621254946298,0,0,0,0,0,89.5703787450537],[0,41.450161317710986,10.748853795211412,39.1237901171676,8.677194769910002,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":1.3367769038569266,"volatility_previous":91.32280523009,"volatility_mean":46.32979106697346,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-50683","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"San Juan De Arama","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.197959679378187,31.53886554621849,3.47579814624099],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-50683|2023|Ordinary election|2128","CO-ALC-50683|2019|Ordinary election|2129","CO-ALC-50683|2015|Ordinary election|2130"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-50683|2023|Ordinary election|2128","CO-ALC-50683|2019|Ordinary election|2129","CO-ALC-50683|2015|Ordinary election|2130"],"shares":[[0.37673062909885835,0.3247510323050765],[0.5940126050420168,0.27862394957983194],[0.33702368692070034,0.3022657054582904]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":35.359923569417205,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,8.282730143308234,0,6.606752489676949,0,0,0,0,85.11051736701482],null,[0,28.578784757981463,0,30.22657054582904,33.70236869207003,1.004119464469619,0,0,0,0,6.488156539649846]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-50686","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"San Juanito","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.090464547677257,18.711385701676967,12.313803376365442],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-50686|2023|Ordinary election|2131","CO-ALC-50686|2019|Ordinary election|2132","CO-ALC-50686|2015|Ordinary election|2133"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-50686|2023|Ordinary election|2131","CO-ALC-50686|2019|Ordinary election|2132","CO-ALC-50686|2015|Ordinary election|2133"],"shares":[[0.5354523227383863,0.4645476772616137],[0.5834068843777582,0.3962930273609885],[0.5104270109235353,0.3872889771598808]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":44.50462611627006,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[46.45476772616137,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,53.54523227383863],[58.34068843777582,0,0,0,0,2.030008826125331,0,0,0,0,39.62930273609885],[0,0,51.042701092353525,38.72889771598808,0,9.930486593843098,0,0,0,0,0.29791459781529295]],"volatility_latest":13.915929537739778,"volatility_previous":97.67207657605937,"volatility_mean":55.79400305689957,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-50689","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"San Martin De Los Llanos","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.5218098958333357,8.217402574958957,0.769298788575469],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-50689|2023|Ordinary election|2134","CO-ALC-50689|2019|Ordinary election|2135","CO-ALC-50689|2015|Ordinary election|2136"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-50689|2023|Ordinary election|2134","CO-ALC-50689|2019|Ordinary election|2135","CO-ALC-50689|2015|Ordinary election|2136"],"shares":[[0.2853190104166667,0.2701009114583333],[0.34779227512313143,0.26561824937354184],[0.3490140595985498,0.34132107171279513]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":82.72381705577384,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,2.6041666666666665,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,97.39583333333334],[0,34.77922751231314,0,0,11.405858463665428,12.969843601486218,11.794694547654021,0,0,1.2442754687635011,27.806100406117686],[0.49518082942788927,20.14324873994164,34.132107171279515,34.90140595985498,1.627022725263065,7.993633389335927,0,0,0,0.7074011848969847,0]],"volatility_latest":72.19389959388232,"volatility_previous":69.52869396056238,"volatility_mean":70.86129677722235,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-50711","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Vista Hermosa","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[31.642593214645615,0.39220492707439547,25.15589757197824],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-50711|2023|Ordinary election|2137","CO-ALC-50711|2019|Ordinary election|2138","CO-ALC-50711|2015|Ordinary election|2139"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-50711|2023|Ordinary election|2137","CO-ALC-50711|2019|Ordinary election|2138","CO-ALC-50711|2015|Ordinary election|2139"],"shares":[[0.631060351584369,0.31463441943791287],[0.3138865056992278,0.3099644564284839],[0.4901154305426562,0.23855645482287383]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,1.5003918934049938,0,0,0,0,98.499608106595],[0,21.902193896310823,0,0,0,0,13.028557421252604,0,0,0,65.06924868243658],[0,6.77988589624519,23.855645482287382,3.1179514395648136,5.3867586572907,2.7464508425102827,1.8442351068064216,49.01154305426562,0,7.257529521029587,0]],"volatility_latest":34.93075131756342,"volatility_previous":91.37587899694839,"volatility_mean":63.1533151572559,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52001","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Pasto","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.291440001019197,1.6366600659142279,58.39044233517792],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52001|2023|Ordinary election|2140","CO-ALC-52001|2019|Ordinary election|2141","CO-ALC-52001|2015|Ordinary election|2142"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52001|2023|Ordinary election|2140","CO-ALC-52001|2019|Ordinary election|2141","CO-ALC-52001|2015|Ordinary election|2142"],"shares":[[0.475016880486158,0.292102480475966],[0.4020487989196224,0.38568219826048017],[0.7579738825570174,0.17406945920523814]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":13.47546873048211,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,4.925916960748093,0,0,0,0,95.0740830392519],[0,3.6770622686529566,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,96.32293773134704],[0,0,0,17.406945920523814,5.244255506285044,0,0,0,0,0,77.34879857319113]],"volatility_latest":4.925916960748093,"volatility_previous":22.65120142680886,"volatility_mean":13.788559193778477,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52019","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Alban (San Jose)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[24.96517566940102,0.3567606136282535,27.976766698935137],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52019|2023|Ordinary election|2143","CO-ALC-52019|2019|Ordinary election|2144","CO-ALC-52019|2015|Ordinary election|2145"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52019|2023|Ordinary election|2143","CO-ALC-52019|2019|Ordinary election|2144","CO-ALC-52019|2015|Ordinary election|2145"],"shares":[[0.6248258783470051,0.3751741216529949],[0.39493399928647877,0.3913663931501962],[0.6393030009680541,0.3595353339787028]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":10.580948721886985,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52022","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Aldana","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[38.61797053330566,4.315766644979398,19.241192411924118],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52022|2023|Ordinary election|2146","CO-ALC-52022|2019|Ordinary election|2147","CO-ALC-52022|2015|Ordinary election|2148"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52022|2023|Ordinary election|2146","CO-ALC-52022|2019|Ordinary election|2147","CO-ALC-52022|2015|Ordinary election|2148"],"shares":[[0.6930898526665282,0.30691014733347166],[0.5148557796573412,0.4716981132075472],[0.5962059620596206,0.40379403794037944]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,30.691014733347167,0,0,69.30898526665283],[0,1.344610713511169,0,0,0,0,0,47.16981132075472,0,51.485577965734116,0],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,40.37940379403794,0,59.62059620596206,0]],"volatility_latest":69.30898526665283,"volatility_previous":8.135018240227945,"volatility_mean":38.72200175344039,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52036","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Ancuya","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.876205505874104,2.5868178596739853,5.577029265599116],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52036|2023|Ordinary election|2149","CO-ALC-52036|2019|Ordinary election|2150","CO-ALC-52036|2015|Ordinary election|2151"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52036|2023|Ordinary election|2149","CO-ALC-52036|2019|Ordinary election|2150","CO-ALC-52036|2015|Ordinary election|2151"],"shares":[[0.3394704541469402,0.3207083990881992],[0.43072289156626503,0.4048547129695252],[0.5201546107123136,0.46438431805632246]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":87.70264206006715,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,9.170611958618272,23.88216728037875,0,66.947220761003],[43.0722891566265,0,0,40.48547129695252,0,15.52090715804394,0,0,0.9213323883770376,0,0],[0,0,52.015461071231364,0,0,0,1.5461071231363888,0,0,0,46.43843180563225]],"volatility_latest":99.07866761162298,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":99.53933380581148,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52051","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Arboleda (Berruecos)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.387252924566358,10.513867985379491,45.10166358595194],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52051|2023|Ordinary election|2152","CO-ALC-52051|2019|Ordinary election|2153","CO-ALC-52051|2015|Ordinary election|2154"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52051|2023|Ordinary election|2152","CO-ALC-52051|2019|Ordinary election|2153","CO-ALC-52051|2015|Ordinary election|2154"],"shares":[[0.4164985881403792,0.3126260588947156],[0.5525693399268975,0.44743066007310256],[0.7255083179297597,0.27449168207024033]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":30.516607455255716,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,31.262605889471562,22.44856797095603,0,0,0,0,0,0,46.28882613957241],[44.743066007310254,0,0,0,55.256933992689746,0,0,0,0,0,0],[72.55083179297597,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,27.44916820702403]],"volatility_latest":100.0,"volatility_previous":55.256933992689746,"volatility_mean":77.62846699634487,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52079","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Barbacoas","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[22.85502958579881,0.15833333333333144,21.292632372338424],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52079|2023|Ordinary election|2155","CO-ALC-52079|2019|Ordinary election|2156","CO-ALC-52079|2015|Ordinary election|2157"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52079|2023|Ordinary election|2155","CO-ALC-52079|2019|Ordinary election|2156","CO-ALC-52079|2015|Ordinary election|2157"],"shares":[[0.5885355029585798,0.35998520710059173],[0.436,0.4344166666666667],[0.5850763143018655,0.37214999057848125]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":20.551095056434356,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[58.853550295857985,0,0,4.289940828402367,0.1997041420118343,0,0,0,0,0,36.65680473372782],[0,0,1.6666666666666667,43.6,0,0,0,9.233333333333333,0,2.058333333333333,43.44166666666667],[0,58.50763143018655,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,4.277369511965329,37.214999057848125]],"volatility_latest":59.05325443786982,"volatility_previous":60.726667608818545,"volatility_mean":59.889961023344185,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52083","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Belen","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.048791609667127,null,4.958877600387034],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52083|2023|Ordinary election|2158","CO-ALC-52083|2019|Ordinary election|2159","CO-ALC-52083|2015|Ordinary election|2160"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52083|2023|Ordinary election|2158","CO-ALC-52083|2019|Ordinary election|2159","CO-ALC-52083|2015|Ordinary election|2160"],"shares":[[0.4687642498860009,0.45827633378932964],[null,null],[0.4315432994678277,0.3819545234639574]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0.09119927040583675,0,0,46.87642498860009,0,0,53.03237574099407],null,[9.748427672955975,38.19545234639574,43.154329946782774,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,8.901790033865506]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52110","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Buesaco","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.2038351752909335,14.955989284347488,25.46029686105929],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52110|2023|Ordinary election|2161","CO-ALC-52110|2019|Ordinary election|2162","CO-ALC-52110|2015|Ordinary election|2163"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52110|2023|Ordinary election|2161","CO-ALC-52110|2019|Ordinary election|2162","CO-ALC-52110|2015|Ordinary election|2163"],"shares":[[0.5107223889336163,0.45868403718070705],[0.5735935706084959,0.4240336777650211],[0.6273014843052964,0.3726985156947035]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":49.224362117076325,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,45.8684037180707,0,0,0,2.839786284125009,0,0,51.29180999780429],null,[62.730148430529646,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,37.269851569470354]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52203","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Colon (Genova)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.3510694714512965,8.807174887892373,5.600306866129657],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52203|2023|Ordinary election|2164","CO-ALC-52203|2019|Ordinary election|2165","CO-ALC-52203|2015|Ordinary election|2166"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52203|2023|Ordinary election|2164","CO-ALC-52203|2019|Ordinary election|2165","CO-ALC-52203|2015|Ordinary election|2166"],"shares":[[0.5075128159802015,0.48400212126568853],[0.5440358744394619,0.4559641255605381],[0.5280015343306483,0.4719984656693517]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":76.93587582074272,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[50.75128159802015,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,49.24871840197984],[0,0,0,0,0,54.403587443946186,0,0,0,0,45.596412556053814],[0,0,0,52.80015343306483,0,0,0,0,0,0,47.19984656693517]],"volatility_latest":54.40358744394618,"volatility_previous":54.403587443946186,"volatility_mean":54.40358744394618,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52207","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Consaca","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.373148525614894,11.342155009451794,11.978055470893018],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52207|2023|Ordinary election|2167","CO-ALC-52207|2019|Ordinary election|2168","CO-ALC-52207|2015|Ordinary election|2169"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52207|2023|Ordinary election|2167","CO-ALC-52207|2019|Ordinary election|2168","CO-ALC-52207|2015|Ordinary election|2169"],"shares":[[0.4061693164832178,0.3424378312270689],[0.38388832339683,0.27046677330231206],[0.5188966778421213,0.3991161231331911]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":57.87829417353112,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[26.85764141340701,0,0.20357714119528864,0,0,27.046677330231205,0,0,0,0,45.8921041151665],[8.19871990246876,0,39.91161231331911,51.88966778421213,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":91.59770295633595,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52210","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Contadero","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.872261418492393,32.35891189606171,98.93252001524971],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52210|2023|Ordinary election|2170","CO-ALC-52210|2019|Ordinary election|2171","CO-ALC-52210|2015|Ordinary election|2172"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52210|2023|Ordinary election|2170","CO-ALC-52210|2019|Ordinary election|2171","CO-ALC-52210|2015|Ordinary election|2172"],"shares":[[0.43297437801708133,0.3542517638321574],[0.6285018270401949,0.30491270807957777],[0.9935188715211589,0.0041936713686618375]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[21.277385815076123,0,35.42517638321574,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,43.297437801708135],[4.547300040600893,0,62.85018270401949,0,2.0706455542021924,0.04060089321965083,0,0,0,0,30.491270807957775],[99.35188715211589,0.41936713686618377,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.2287457110179184]],"volatility_latest":29.536252768225587,"volatility_previous":95.22395424838119,"volatility_mean":62.38010350830339,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52215","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Cordoba","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.175801970194495,7.420629861022569,11.031769163509182],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52215|2023|Ordinary election|2173","CO-ALC-52215|2019|Ordinary election|2174","CO-ALC-52215|2015|Ordinary election|2175"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52215|2023|Ordinary election|2173","CO-ALC-52215|2019|Ordinary election|2174","CO-ALC-52215|2015|Ordinary election|2175"],"shares":[[0.36915887850467294,0.307400858802728],[0.410047175825577,0.3358408772153513],[0.4938793354707082,0.3835616438356164]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":64.82576471612808,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,4.407678706744127,0,0,0,0,0,0,95.59232129325588],[33.58408772153513,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,66.41591227846487],[49.38793354707082,0.05829204313611192,0,0.10201107548819587,0,0,0,38.35616438356164,0,11.672981638006412,0.4226173127368114]],"volatility_latest":33.58408772153513,"volatility_previous":65.99329496572805,"volatility_mean":49.78869134363159,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52224","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Cuaspud (Carlosama)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[26.725775807473084,36.285171759019505,12.433031590615187],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52224|2023|Ordinary election|2176","CO-ALC-52224|2019|Ordinary election|2177","CO-ALC-52224|2015|Ordinary election|2178"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52224|2023|Ordinary election|2176","CO-ALC-52224|2019|Ordinary election|2177","CO-ALC-52224|2015|Ordinary election|2178"],"shares":[[0.6336288790373654,0.3663711209626346],[0.6435353012256171,0.28068358363542206],[0.562165157953076,0.4378348420469241]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[63.36288790373654,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,36.63711209626346],[64.35353012256171,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,28.068358363542206,7.578111513896081],[43.78348420469241,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,56.21651579530759,0]],"volatility_latest":29.059000582367375,"volatility_previous":28.148157431765384,"volatility_mean":28.60357900706638,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52227","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Cumbal","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[30.455884902062756,23.260368663594477,3.970440881763526],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52227|2023|Ordinary election|2179","CO-ALC-52227|2019|Ordinary election|2180","CO-ALC-52227|2015|Ordinary election|2181"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52227|2023|Ordinary election|2179","CO-ALC-52227|2019|Ordinary election|2180","CO-ALC-52227|2015|Ordinary election|2181"],"shares":[[0.649217079794303,0.3446582307736754],[0.6163018433179723,0.3836981566820276],[0.3026678356713427,0.26296342685370744]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0.6124689432021725,0,0,0,0,0,34.46582307736754,0,0,64.9217079794303],[0,0,0,0,0,0,38.36981566820276,0,0,61.63018433179724,0],[0,30.26678356713427,0,0,0,0,23.259018036072145,20.177855711422847,0,26.296342685370742,0]],"volatility_latest":100.0,"volatility_previous":50.44463927855711,"volatility_mean":75.22231963927855,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52233","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Cumbitara","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.986046511627904,4.417670682730929,6.796116504854368],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52233|2023|Ordinary election|2182","CO-ALC-52233|2019|Ordinary election|2183","CO-ALC-52233|2015|Ordinary election|2184"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52233|2023|Ordinary election|2182","CO-ALC-52233|2019|Ordinary election|2183","CO-ALC-52233|2015|Ordinary election|2184"],"shares":[[0.5449302325581395,0.45506976744186045],[0.5220883534136547,0.47791164658634533],[0.5339805825242718,0.46601941747572817]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":63.01729618859271,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,54.49302325581395,0,0,0,0,45.50697674418605],[0,0,0,47.791164658634536,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.208835341365464],[0,0,53.398058252427184,46.601941747572816,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":54.49302325581395,"volatility_previous":53.398058252427184,"volatility_mean":53.94554075412057,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52240","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Chachagui","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.975937325125908,2.9051798739028314,0.7000538502961788],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52240|2023|Ordinary election|2185","CO-ALC-52240|2019|Ordinary election|2186","CO-ALC-52240|2015|Ordinary election|2187"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52240|2023|Ordinary election|2185","CO-ALC-52240|2019|Ordinary election|2186","CO-ALC-52240|2015|Ordinary election|2187"],"shares":[[0.37895914941242304,0.28919977616116394],[0.3740882680182965,0.3450364692792682],[0.41868605277329024,0.41168551427032846]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":68.36439128861994,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52250|2023|Ordinary election|2188","CO-ALC-52250|2019|Ordinary election|2189","CO-ALC-52250|2015|Ordinary election|2190"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52250|2023|Ordinary election|2188","CO-ALC-52250|2019|Ordinary election|2189","CO-ALC-52250|2015|Ordinary election|2190"],"shares":[[0.4898901775633789,0.34044955352560813],[0.4082071323888618,0.3132388861748901],[0.3719551627505928,0.2892864841560681]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":36.78914192684679,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,34.04495535256081,0,0,65.95504464743918],[0,0.537371763556424,0,40.82071323888618,0,0.1172447484123107,31.323888617489008,0.20517830972154372,0,0,26.99560332193454],[7.124380254365165,28.928648415606812,25.6413020047424,0,0,0.09700366458288424,37.19551627505928,0.09700366458288424,0.04311273981461522,0.33412373356326797,0.5389092476826902]],"volatility_latest":72.79921836834392,"volatility_previous":67.4058230421061,"volatility_mean":70.102520705225,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52254","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"El Peñol","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.650924832743016,4.12392715093155,2.495462794918325],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52254|2023|Ordinary election|2191","CO-ALC-52254|2019|Ordinary election|2192","CO-ALC-52254|2015|Ordinary election|2193"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52254|2023|Ordinary election|2191","CO-ALC-52254|2019|Ordinary election|2192","CO-ALC-52254|2015|Ordinary election|2193"],"shares":[[0.533254624163715,0.46674537583628495],[0.5206196357546578,0.47938036424534225],[0.5124773139745916,0.4875226860254084]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":72.61360337791447,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[46.67453758362849,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,53.32546241637151],[52.061963575465775,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,47.938036424534225],[0,0,51.24773139745916,48.75226860254084,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":5.387425991837283,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":52.693712995918645,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52256","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"El Rosario","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2025,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,5.505142165759224,5.0071530758226],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2025-03-09 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52256|CO-ALC-52256-2025-03-09-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6797","CO-ALC-52256|2023|Ordinary election|2194","CO-ALC-52256|2019|Ordinary election|2195"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52256|CO-ALC-52256-2025-03-09-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6797","CO-ALC-52256|2023|Ordinary election|2194","CO-ALC-52256|2019|Ordinary election|2195","CO-ALC-52256|2015|Ordinary election|2196"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.5275257108287961,0.4724742891712039],[0.525035765379113,0.474964234620887]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[52.5035765379113,0,0,47.4964234620887,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52258","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"El Tablon","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.645345967821541,24.892086330935253,12.032806092560051],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52258|2023|Ordinary election|2197","CO-ALC-52258|2019|Ordinary election|2198","CO-ALC-52258|2015|Ordinary election|2199"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52258|2023|Ordinary election|2197","CO-ALC-52258|2019|Ordinary election|2198","CO-ALC-52258|2015|Ordinary election|2199"],"shares":[[0.5037015102161682,0.4772480505379528],[0.5498616491422247,0.30094078583287215],[0.5601640304628003,0.4398359695371997]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":48.70942955385248,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[50.37015102161682,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,49.62984897838318],[0,30.094078583287217,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,69.90592141671279],[0,0,0,43.983596953719974,0,0,56.016403046280026,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":50.37015102161682,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":75.18507551080842,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52260","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"El Tambo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.209887065842743,11.122472165416951,3.8163240182198663],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52260|2023|Ordinary election|2200","CO-ALC-52260|2019|Ordinary election|2201","CO-ALC-52260|2015|Ordinary election|2202"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52260|2023|Ordinary election|2200","CO-ALC-52260|2019|Ordinary election|2201","CO-ALC-52260|2015|Ordinary election|2202"],"shares":[[0.4431067547411038,0.39100788408267634],[0.5384003635537378,0.42717564189956825],[0.3749846115967007,0.3368213714145021]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":65.77846854523641,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,16.58853611762199,0,0,0,0,0,0,83.411463882378],[42.717564189956825,0,0,0,0,3.2492615314701205,0.1931379231992729,0,0,0,53.840036355373776],[37.49846115967007,0,0,33.682137141450205,0,0,0,28.819401698879723,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":46.15996364462622,"volatility_previous":62.50153884032993,"volatility_mean":54.33075124247807,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52287","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Funes","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.345575959933228,35.75233022636484,2.0378806041716615],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52287|2023|Ordinary election|2203","CO-ALC-52287|2019|Ordinary election|2204","CO-ALC-52287|2015|Ordinary election|2205"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52287|2023|Ordinary election|2203","CO-ALC-52287|2019|Ordinary election|2204","CO-ALC-52287|2015|Ordinary election|2205"],"shares":[[0.5367278797996662,0.46327212020033387],[0.6571238348868175,0.2996005326231691],[0.5101894030208584,0.4898105969791417]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":23.31583647856723,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[29.96005326231691,0,0,0,0,4.327563249001331,0,0,0,0,65.71238348868175],[0,0,0,0,0,51.01894030208583,0,0,0,0,48.98105969791417]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":46.691377053084494,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52317","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Guachucal","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.680376654526071,15.656611683222458,14.589435887744493],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52317|2023|Ordinary election|2206","CO-ALC-52317|2019|Ordinary election|2207","CO-ALC-52317|2015|Ordinary election|2208"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52317|2023|Ordinary election|2206","CO-ALC-52317|2019|Ordinary election|2207","CO-ALC-52317|2015|Ordinary election|2208"],"shares":[[0.5577862663231766,0.42098249977791596],[0.5168139979950789,0.3602478811628543],[0.4413682320703014,0.29547387319285645]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":28.17923456771586,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[36.02478811628543,0,0,0,0,0,7.6824933928734165,0,0,51.681399799507886,4.611318691333272],[44.13682320703014,24.10469621090428,0,2.2110932627799302,0,0,0,0,0,29.547387319285647,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":34.427824564428924,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52320","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Guaitarilla","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.105694923314708,25.40736270368135,10.960979921707281],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52320|2023|Ordinary election|2209","CO-ALC-52320|2019|Ordinary election|2210","CO-ALC-52320|2015|Ordinary election|2211"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52320|2023|Ordinary election|2209","CO-ALC-52320|2019|Ordinary election|2210","CO-ALC-52320|2015|Ordinary election|2211"],"shares":[[0.25145642610866725,0.24039947687552016],[0.5692214846107423,0.31514785757392877],[0.3787094330092183,0.26909963379214547]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":53.09138121368021,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.8441326833907977,0,99.1558673166092],null,[0,0,2.323525697689102,0,26.90996337921455,0,0,0,0,0,70.76651092309635]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52323","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Gualmatan","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.7656612529002302,12.187958883994128,18.515665125834616],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52323|2023|Ordinary election|2212","CO-ALC-52323|2019|Ordinary election|2213","CO-ALC-52323|2015|Ordinary election|2214"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52323|2023|Ordinary election|2212","CO-ALC-52323|2019|Ordinary election|2213","CO-ALC-52323|2015|Ordinary election|2214"],"shares":[[0.3417633410672854,0.3341067285382831],[0.5609397944199707,0.43906020558002934],[0.4702105803800719,0.2850539291217257]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":70.16324535239082,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,4.849187935034803,0,0,0,0,95.1508120649652],[43.906020558002936,0,56.093979441997064,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[28.505392912172574,0,0,47.02105803800719,0,2.6964560862865947,21.77709296353364,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":100.0,"volatility_previous":71.49460708782742,"volatility_mean":85.74730354391372,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52352","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Iles","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2024,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,3.9449387275474237,9.042553191489361],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2024-11-03 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52352|CO-ALC-52352-2024-11-03-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6803","CO-ALC-52352|2023|Ordinary election|2215","CO-ALC-52352|2019|Ordinary election|2216"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52352|CO-ALC-52352-2024-11-03-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6803","CO-ALC-52352|2023|Ordinary election|2215","CO-ALC-52352|2019|Ordinary election|2216","CO-ALC-52352|2015|Ordinary election|2217"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.4117844552627162,0.3723350679872419],[0.5452127659574468,0.45478723404255317]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,37.23350679872419,0,0,0,62.766493201275814],null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52354","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Imues","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.8303414290742666,7.674943566591423,8.273381294964025],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52354|2023|Ordinary election|2218","CO-ALC-52354|2019|Ordinary election|2219","CO-ALC-52354|2015|Ordinary election|2220"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52354|2023|Ordinary election|2218","CO-ALC-52354|2019|Ordinary election|2219","CO-ALC-52354|2015|Ordinary election|2220"],"shares":[[0.5091517071453713,0.49084829285462866],[0.5383747178329571,0.4616252821670429],[0.5413669064748201,0.4586330935251799]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":78.85986971540805,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,50.91517071453713,0,0,0,0,0,0,49.08482928546287],[46.16252821670429,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,53.83747178329571],[45.86330935251799,0,54.13669064748201,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":50.91517071453713,"volatility_previous":54.13669064748201,"volatility_mean":52.52593068100957,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52356","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Ipiales","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[40.36609340668417,9.161748997495927,14.879200222160506],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52356|2023|Ordinary election|2221","CO-ALC-52356|2019|Ordinary election|2222","CO-ALC-52356|2015|Ordinary election|2223"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52356|2023|Ordinary election|2221","CO-ALC-52356|2019|Ordinary election|2222","CO-ALC-52356|2015|Ordinary election|2223"],"shares":[[0.6963208934265087,0.292659959359667],[0.4145026003817395,0.32288511040678025],[0.37034157178561505,0.22154956956401]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0.41501041903794633,0,0,0,0,0,99.58498958096206],[0,16.086272331759698,0,22.154956956401,0,0,15.480884939368694,37.03415717856151,9.130797000833102,0,0.11293159307599741]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":99.887068406924,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52378","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"La Cruz","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.4130243988063924,33.35146405584263,0.659630606860155],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52378|2023|Ordinary election|2224","CO-ALC-52378|2019|Ordinary election|2225","CO-ALC-52378|2015|Ordinary election|2226"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52378|2023|Ordinary election|2224","CO-ALC-52378|2019|Ordinary election|2225","CO-ALC-52378|2015|Ordinary election|2226"],"shares":[[0.49596278743198174,0.48183254344391785],[0.6213398603934367,0.2878252198350104],[0.33245382585751976,0.3258575197889182]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":45.40391541638681,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,49.59627874319818,0,0,2.2204669124100405,0,48.183254344391784],[0,0,0,0,0,0,1.6952225546188016,0,4.822772187471671,0,93.48200525790952],[0,0,0,15.473049378062571,0.9894459102902374,32.58575197889182,0,0,0,4.0049001130795325,46.94685261967584]],"volatility_latest":49.59627874319817,"volatility_previous":53.053147380324155,"volatility_mean":51.32471306176116,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52381","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"La Florida","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.21853961677887,9.702996909017607,18.04884975859131],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52381|2023|Ordinary election|2227","CO-ALC-52381|2019|Ordinary election|2228","CO-ALC-52381|2015|Ordinary election|2229"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52381|2023|Ordinary election|2227","CO-ALC-52381|2019|Ordinary election|2228","CO-ALC-52381|2015|Ordinary election|2229"],"shares":[[0.559295701708959,0.42711030554117035],[0.5264077408950409,0.4293777718048649],[0.5888952002272082,0.4084067026412951]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":36.76546090684133,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,1.3593992749870534,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,98.64060072501294],[0,0,0,0,0,3.037226179276979,0,0,1.3842225507324284,0,95.57855126999058],[0,0,0.2698097131496734,58.889520022720816,0,0,0,0,0,0,40.84067026412951]],"volatility_latest":4.421448730009411,"volatility_previous":59.159329735870486,"volatility_mean":31.790389232939948,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52385|2023|Ordinary election|2230","CO-ALC-52385|2019|Ordinary election|2231","CO-ALC-52385|2015|Ordinary election|2232"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52385|2023|Ordinary election|2230","CO-ALC-52385|2019|Ordinary election|2231","CO-ALC-52385|2015|Ordinary election|2232"],"shares":[[0.8481837938528407,0.1390872399875815],[0.5298651252408478,0.4701348747591522],[0.575337468077344,0.42466253192265596]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[47.01348747591522,52.98651252408478,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[57.5337468077344,42.4662531922656,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":10.520259331819183,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52390","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"La Tola","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[23.18321392016377,54.15244596131967,13.607878245299911],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52390|2023|Ordinary election|2233","CO-ALC-52390|2019|Ordinary election|2234","CO-ALC-52390|2015|Ordinary election|2235"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52390|2023|Ordinary election|2233","CO-ALC-52390|2019|Ordinary election|2234","CO-ALC-52390|2015|Ordinary election|2235"],"shares":[[0.5488741044012283,0.3170419651995906],[0.7707622298065984,0.2292377701934016],[0.43748134885108925,0.30140256639809015]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,54.88741044012283,0,0,0,45.11258955987718],[77.07622298065984,0,0,0,0,0,22.92377701934016,0,0,0,0],[24.768725753506416,30.140256639809014,1.3428827215756491,0,0,0,0,0,43.748134885108925,0,0]],"volatility_latest":77.07622298065984,"volatility_previous":75.23127424649358,"volatility_mean":76.15374861357671,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52399","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"La Union","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.07206311735106,2.5499932894913435,24.894192742662874],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52399|2023|Ordinary election|2236","CO-ALC-52399|2019|Ordinary election|2237","CO-ALC-52399|2015|Ordinary election|2238"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52399|2023|Ordinary election|2236","CO-ALC-52399|2019|Ordinary election|2237","CO-ALC-52399|2015|Ordinary election|2238"],"shares":[[0.4645586134062248,0.26383798223271415],[0.3142531203865253,0.28875318749161183],[0.6193714008187053,0.37042947339207655]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":23.511724342378372,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,9.125924085233274,0,0,0,46.45586134062248,0,0,0,0,44.418214574144244],[0,0,0,11.750100657629849,28.875318749161185,25.77506374983224,0,0,0,0,33.599516843376726],[0,61.93714008187053,0,37.04294733920766,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.0199125789218066]],"volatility_latest":40.62541940679103,"volatility_previous":87.22998676344834,"volatility_mean":63.92770308511969,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52405","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Leiva","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.097249361190439,15.159621901194939,4.352941176470587],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52405|2023|Ordinary election|2239","CO-ALC-52405|2019|Ordinary election|2240","CO-ALC-52405|2015|Ordinary election|2241"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52405|2023|Ordinary election|2239","CO-ALC-52405|2019|Ordinary election|2240","CO-ALC-52405|2015|Ordinary election|2241"],"shares":[[0.27641665414098904,0.26544416052908465],[0.48974496165507403,0.33814874264312467],[0.3596078431372549,0.31607843137254904]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":71.79234847640097,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52411","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Linares","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[32.38828967642527,5.934195064629847,3.159173754556498],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52411|2023|Ordinary election|2242","CO-ALC-52411|2019|Ordinary election|2243","CO-ALC-52411|2015|Ordinary election|2244"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52411|2023|Ordinary election|2242","CO-ALC-52411|2019|Ordinary election|2243","CO-ALC-52411|2015|Ordinary election|2244"],"shares":[[0.6619414483821263,0.3380585516178736],[0.5151292596944771,0.4557873090481786],[0.5148845686512759,0.4832928311057108]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[66.19414483821264,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,33.80585516178736],[45.57873090481786,0,51.51292596944771,0,0,0,2.834900117508813,0,0,0,0.07344300822561692],[0,0,0.1822600243013366,0,0,51.48845686512758,0,0,48.32928311057108,0,0]],"volatility_latest":54.34782608695652,"volatility_previous":99.81773997569866,"volatility_mean":77.0827830313276,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52418","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Los Andes (Sotomayor)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.477326968973745,8.121397083757202,15.119617224880379],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52418|2023|Ordinary election|2245","CO-ALC-52418|2019|Ordinary election|2246","CO-ALC-52418|2015|Ordinary election|2247"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52418|2023|Ordinary election|2245","CO-ALC-52418|2019|Ordinary election|2246","CO-ALC-52418|2015|Ordinary election|2247"],"shares":[[0.5132856006364359,0.3085123309466985],[0.5344184469311631,0.45320447609359105],[0.5048803827751196,0.3536842105263158]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":18.826114855002775,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,30.851233094669848,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,69.14876690533015],[0,0,0,45.32044760935911,0,1.2377076975245846,0,0,0,0,53.44184469311631],[0,0,14.14354066985646,0,0,0,0,0,35.36842105263158,0,50.48803827751196]],"volatility_latest":46.55815530688369,"volatility_previous":49.51196172248804,"volatility_mean":48.035058514685865,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52427","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Magui (Payan)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.230125523012553,0.6461675579322659,2.723105958479376],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52427|2023|Ordinary election|2248","CO-ALC-52427|2019|Ordinary election|2249","CO-ALC-52427|2015|Ordinary election|2250"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52427|2023|Ordinary election|2248","CO-ALC-52427|2019|Ordinary election|2249","CO-ALC-52427|2015|Ordinary election|2250"],"shares":[[0.5320083682008367,0.37970711297071125],[0.499777183600713,0.49331550802139035],[0.28794823402534375,0.26071717444055]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":51.97881911482425,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,37.97071129707113,0,0,0,62.029288702928866],[0,49.9777183600713,0,0,0,0.6907308377896613,0,0,49.331550802139034,0,0],[0.37746023186842814,22.91722836344028,0.4583445672688056,0,0,28.794823402534377,21.380425990833107,0,26.071717444055,0,0]],"volatility_latest":100.0,"volatility_previous":50.32032335471506,"volatility_mean":75.16016167735754,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52435","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Mallama (Piedrancha)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.200933540786835,7.103700319780721,20.399326437334615],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52435|2023|Ordinary election|2251","CO-ALC-52435|2019|Ordinary election|2252","CO-ALC-52435|2015|Ordinary election|2253"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52435|2023|Ordinary election|2251","CO-ALC-52435|2019|Ordinary election|2252","CO-ALC-52435|2015|Ordinary election|2253"],"shares":[[0.5210046677039342,0.47899533229606583],[0.4751027866605756,0.4040657834627684],[0.5518402694250661,0.34784700505171995]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":66.5419856793011,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.10046677039342,0,0,47.89953322960658],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,7.743261763362266,40.40657834627684,51.85015989036089],[0,0,34.784700505172,0,0,0,0,0,0.12027904738994467,0,65.09502044743806]],"volatility_latest":52.10046677039342,"volatility_previous":48.029561062249165,"volatility_mean":50.06501391632129,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52473","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Mosquera","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.3656776263031247,5.431993156544053,14.206769514160712],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52473|2023|Ordinary election|2254","CO-ALC-52473|2019|Ordinary election|2255","CO-ALC-52473|2015|Ordinary election|2256"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52473|2023|Ordinary election|2254","CO-ALC-52473|2019|Ordinary election|2255","CO-ALC-52473|2015|Ordinary election|2256"],"shares":[[0.47052927024859664,0.4468724939855654],[0.526732249786142,0.47241231822070145],[0.5710338475708036,0.42896615242919645]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":77.65159262919418,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[44.68724939855654,0,0,0,0,0,6.555733761026463,0,1.7040898155573376,0,47.05292702485966],[52.6732249786142,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,47.3267750213858],[57.103384757080356,42.896615242919644,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":8.2598235765838,"volatility_previous":47.3267750213858,"volatility_mean":27.7932992989848,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52480","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Nariño","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[24.677296886864085,27.607361963190186,31.184720978812294],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52480|2023|Ordinary election|2257","CO-ALC-52480|2019|Ordinary election|2258","CO-ALC-52480|2015|Ordinary election|2259"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52480|2023|Ordinary election|2257","CO-ALC-52480|2019|Ordinary election|2258","CO-ALC-52480|2015|Ordinary election|2259"],"shares":[[0.6226271829916477,0.37585421412300685],[0.6380368098159509,0.36196319018404904],[0.6559236048940614,0.3440763951059385]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[62.26271829916477,0,0,37.58542141230068,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.15186028853454822],[63.80368098159509,0,0,36.19631901840491,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[34.40763951059385,0,0,65.59236048940615,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":1.540962682430325,"volatility_previous":29.39604147100124,"volatility_mean":15.468502076715783,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52490","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Olaya Herrera","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.52241793434748,41.88158779995515,1.5162721893491131],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52490|2023|Ordinary election|2260","CO-ALC-52490|2019|Ordinary election|2261","CO-ALC-52490|2015|Ordinary election|2262"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52490|2023|Ordinary election|2260","CO-ALC-52490|2019|Ordinary election|2261","CO-ALC-52490|2015|Ordinary election|2262"],"shares":[[0.5209167333867094,0.3656925540432346],[0.6161695447409733,0.19735366674142185],[0.28870808678500987,0.2735453648915187]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,19.735366674142185,0,61.616954474097334,0,0,0,0,0,17.50392464678179,1.1437542049786948],[28.870808678500985,7.470414201183432,19.51429980276134,27.354536489151872,0,0,0,0,0,16.420118343195266,0.3698224852071006]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":48.38510848126233,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52506","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Ospina","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.2258726899383987,19.439799331103686,28.028450766837075],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52506|2023|Ordinary election|2263","CO-ALC-52506|2019|Ordinary election|2264","CO-ALC-52506|2015|Ordinary election|2265"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52506|2023|Ordinary election|2263","CO-ALC-52506|2019|Ordinary election|2264","CO-ALC-52506|2015|Ordinary election|2265"],"shares":[[0.5004106776180698,0.4981519507186858],[0.5971989966555185,0.40280100334448155],[0.6394754389864414,0.35919093131807067]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":56.14845755011074,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[50.04106776180698,0,49.81519507186858,0,0,0,0.02053388090349076,0,0,0,0.12320328542094455],[40.28010033444816,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,59.71989966555184],[35.91909313180707,63.94754389864414,0,0.13336296954878862,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":59.59669638013089,"volatility_previous":64.08090686819293,"volatility_mean":61.83880162416191,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52520","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Francisco Pizarro (Salahonda)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.0687830687830697,8.439836026042919,5.786314525810319],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52520|2023|Ordinary election|2266","CO-ALC-52520|2019|Ordinary election|2267","CO-ALC-52520|2015|Ordinary election|2268"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52520|2023|Ordinary election|2266","CO-ALC-52520|2019|Ordinary election|2267","CO-ALC-52520|2015|Ordinary election|2268"],"shares":[[0.47873015873015873,0.448042328042328],[0.527610320713769,0.44321196045333977],[0.3800720288115246,0.3222088835534214]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":75.24073949168125,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0.7407407407407407,0,0,0,0,0,44.804232804232804,0,0,54.455026455026456],[52.761032071376896,0,0,0,0,0,0,44.32119604533398,0,0,2.9177718832891246],[32.22088835534214,38.00720288115246,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,29.7719087635054]],"volatility_latest":52.761032071376896,"volatility_previous":64.86133976136874,"volatility_mean":58.81118591637282,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52540","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Policarpa","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.267170482329405,3.4303676370097023,0.15640551684913362],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52540|2023|Ordinary election|2269","CO-ALC-52540|2019|Ordinary election|2270","CO-ALC-52540|2015|Ordinary election|2271"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52540|2023|Ordinary election|2269","CO-ALC-52540|2019|Ordinary election|2270","CO-ALC-52540|2015|Ordinary election|2271"],"shares":[[0.511335852411647,0.48866414758835297],[0.4104141041410414,0.3761104277709444],[0.5007820275842456,0.49921797241575433]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":87.97473433907267,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[37.61104277709444,0,0,41.04141041410414,0,0,0,21.34754680880142,0,0,0],[0,0,50.07820275842457,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,49.92179724157543]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52560","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Potosi","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.165079365079368,1.2096774193548399,0.8022462896109133],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52560|2023|Ordinary election|2272","CO-ALC-52560|2019|Ordinary election|2273","CO-ALC-52560|2015|Ordinary election|2274"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52560|2023|Ordinary election|2272","CO-ALC-52560|2019|Ordinary election|2273","CO-ALC-52560|2015|Ordinary election|2274"],"shares":[[0.3343492063492064,0.2926984126984127],[0.5056703629032259,0.49357358870967744],[0.40566920711325044,0.39764674421714136]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":85.28912263092418,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52565","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Providencia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.108720795743693,6.205250596658715,10.230834995725274],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52565|2023|Ordinary election|2275","CO-ALC-52565|2019|Ordinary election|2276","CO-ALC-52565|2015|Ordinary election|2277"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52565|2023|Ordinary election|2275","CO-ALC-52565|2019|Ordinary election|2276","CO-ALC-52565|2015|Ordinary election|2277"],"shares":[[0.5505436039787185,0.4494563960212815],[0.5310262529832935,0.4689737470167064],[0.5511541749786264,0.4488458250213736]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":55.250544219918204,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,53.10262529832936,0,0,46.89737470167064,0,0,0,0,0],[44.88458250213736,0,55.11541749786264,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":46.89737470167064,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52573","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Puerres","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.032268964352085,0.5401866099197861,6.838321350944653],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52573|2023|Ordinary election|2278","CO-ALC-52573|2019|Ordinary election|2279","CO-ALC-52573|2015|Ordinary election|2280"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52573|2023|Ordinary election|2278","CO-ALC-52573|2019|Ordinary election|2279","CO-ALC-52573|2015|Ordinary election|2280"],"shares":[[0.45869234668018244,0.3483696570366616],[0.49582583074152886,0.490423964642331],[0.5341916067547232,0.46580839324527673]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":62.67375251659174,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[49.0423964642331,0,49.582583074152886,0,0,0,1.375020461614012,0,0,0,0],[46.58083932452767,0,53.41916067547233,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":3.8365776013194397,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52585","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Pupiales","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[32.96462119216926,16.82878540070586,4.999551207252495],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52585|2023|Ordinary election|2281","CO-ALC-52585|2019|Ordinary election|2282","CO-ALC-52585|2015|Ordinary election|2283"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52585|2023|Ordinary election|2281","CO-ALC-52585|2019|Ordinary election|2282","CO-ALC-52585|2015|Ordinary election|2283"],"shares":[[0.5495566675445527,0.21991045562286016],[0.530601704398726,0.3623138503916674],[0.5249977560362624,0.4750022439637375]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52612","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Ricaurte","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,7.738769346923366,2.141588992454505],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2023-12-10 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52612|CO-ALC-52612-2023-12-10-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6810","CO-ALC-52612|2023|Ordinary election|2284","CO-ALC-52612|2019|Ordinary election|2285"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52612|CO-ALC-52612-2023-12-10-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6810","CO-ALC-52612|2023|Ordinary election|2284","CO-ALC-52612|2019|Ordinary election|2285","CO-ALC-52612|2015|Ordinary election|2286"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.3854284635711589,0.30804077010192527],[0.28550821127385706,0.26409232134931204]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,30.804077010192525,0,0,69.19592298980747],[26.4092321349312,0,0,18.3976919662672,0,2.3191300488237907,0.2774079005770084,23.213493120284067,0,28.550821127385706,0.8322237017310253]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":75.9542831779849,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52621","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Roberto Payan (San Jose)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[34.172876304023845,1.6518004625041343,33.70639806006343],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52621|2023|Ordinary election|2287","CO-ALC-52621|2019|Ordinary election|2288","CO-ALC-52621|2015|Ordinary election|2289"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52621|2023|Ordinary election|2287","CO-ALC-52621|2019|Ordinary election|2288","CO-ALC-52621|2015|Ordinary election|2289"],"shares":[[0.5798807749627422,0.23815201192250374],[0.4909150974562273,0.474397092831186],[0.6457750419697819,0.30871106136914755]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[57.988077496274215,0,0,0,0,0.5365126676602087,0,0,0,0,41.47540983606557],[47.439709283118596,0,3.468780971258672,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,49.09150974562273],[0,64.57750419697818,2.4622271964185787,2.089162469688491,0,0,30.871106136914754,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":11.08488088081583,"volatility_previous":97.53777280358142,"volatility_mean":54.311326842198625,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52678","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Samaniego","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.611481975967955,10.603126296859873,6.567044160021446],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52678|2023|Ordinary election|2290","CO-ALC-52678|2019|Ordinary election|2291","CO-ALC-52678|2015|Ordinary election|2292"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52678|2023|Ordinary election|2290","CO-ALC-52678|2019|Ordinary election|2291","CO-ALC-52678|2015|Ordinary election|2292"],"shares":[[0.4652870493991989,0.42917222963951934],[0.39756536173744644,0.29153409876884767],[0.3924143938886283,0.32674395228841385]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":69.97734254679561,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,39.75653617374464,6.978835246922119,0,0,0,8.93622907732743,0,11.350117581961543,32.97828192004427],[0,0,28.084165382295787,0,0,0,39.24143938886283,0,0,0,32.674395228841384]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":39.24143938886283,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52683","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Sandona","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[22.608423359949903,11.186528052238167,26.029768085842846],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52683|2023|Ordinary election|2293","CO-ALC-52683|2019|Ordinary election|2294","CO-ALC-52683|2015|Ordinary election|2295"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52683|2023|Ordinary election|2293","CO-ALC-52683|2019|Ordinary election|2294","CO-ALC-52683|2015|Ordinary election|2295"],"shares":[[0.5683419445749178,0.3422577109754188],[0.5400807629521437,0.428215482429762],[0.6301488404292143,0.3698511595707858]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":2.3800537988716064,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,1.0567918206031446,0,0,42.8215482429762,0,0,56.121659936420656],[36.98511595707858,63.01488404292142,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52685","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"San Bernardo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[65.26297085998578,16.845753899480066,7.165456914200632],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52685|2023|Ordinary election|2296","CO-ALC-52685|2019|Ordinary election|2297","CO-ALC-52685|2015|Ordinary election|2298"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52685|2023|Ordinary election|2296","CO-ALC-52685|2019|Ordinary election|2297","CO-ALC-52685|2015|Ordinary election|2298"],"shares":[[0.7814498933901919,0.12882018479033402],[0.5358752166377816,0.36741767764298094],[0.5358272845710031,0.46417271542899685]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[53.58752166377816,0.779896013864818,0,8.578856152512998,36.741767764298096,0,0,0.3119584055459272,0,0,0],[46.417271542899684,0,53.582728457100316,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":53.582728457100316,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52687","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"San Lorenzo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.299039650090332,9.675256250598718,32.802040165763465],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52687|2023|Ordinary election|2299","CO-ALC-52687|2019|Ordinary election|2300","CO-ALC-52687|2015|Ordinary election|2301"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52687|2023|Ordinary election|2299","CO-ALC-52687|2019|Ordinary election|2300","CO-ALC-52687|2015|Ordinary election|2301"],"shares":[[0.39393363126366837,0.24094323476276502],[0.41459909953060636,0.3178465370246192],[0.6168313675486133,0.28881096589097865]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":23.188976590949185,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[39.393363126366836,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.854140914709518,0,58.752495958923646],[26.621323881597853,0,0,31.78465370246192,0,0,41.45990995306064,0,0,0,0.13411246287958617],[28.881096589097865,0,0,0,0,0,61.68313675486133,9.435766656040803,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":73.24456365552255,"volatility_previous":31.918766165341506,"volatility_mean":52.58166491043203,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52693","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"San Pablo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.717851991567734,6.559187279151942,1.0017472335468867],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52693|2023|Ordinary election|2302","CO-ALC-52693|2019|Ordinary election|2303","CO-ALC-52693|2015|Ordinary election|2304"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52693|2023|Ordinary election|2302","CO-ALC-52693|2019|Ordinary election|2303","CO-ALC-52693|2015|Ordinary election|2304"],"shares":[[0.5427715522023743,0.435593032286697],[0.5171157243816255,0.451523851590106],[0.49563191613278973,0.4856144437973209]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":57.50678948979544,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.7544657716631532,0,0,99.24553422833685],[0,0,0,0,0,3.136042402826855,45.1523851590106,0,0,0,51.71157243816254],[0,0,48.56144437973209,0,0,0,49.563191613278974,1.8753640069889341,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":48.28842756183746,"volatility_previous":54.847614840989394,"volatility_mean":51.56802120141343,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52694","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"San Pedro De Cartago","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[22.39467849223947,0.42390843577787507,19.600642644021114],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52694|2023|Ordinary election|2305","CO-ALC-52694|2019|Ordinary election|2306","CO-ALC-52694|2015|Ordinary election|2307"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52694|2023|Ordinary election|2305","CO-ALC-52694|2019|Ordinary election|2306","CO-ALC-52694|2015|Ordinary election|2307"],"shares":[[0.5571457367466237,0.333198951824229],[0.5021195421788893,0.4978804578211106],[0.5187055313288961,0.3226991048886849]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":22.379780547604213,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[33.3198951824229,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,66.6801048175771],[50.21195421788894,0,49.78804578211106,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[51.870553132889604,7.137938948817994,32.26991048886849,8.721597429423916,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":66.6801048175771,"volatility_previous":17.518135293242576,"volatility_mean":42.09912005540984,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52696","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Santa Barbara (Iscuande)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.695113056163386,17.513171759747102,6.391304347826086],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52696|2023|Ordinary election|2308","CO-ALC-52696|2019|Ordinary election|2309","CO-ALC-52696|2015|Ordinary election|2310"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52696|2023|Ordinary election|2308","CO-ALC-52696|2019|Ordinary election|2309","CO-ALC-52696|2015|Ordinary election|2310"],"shares":[[0.46663019693654273,0.38967906637490884],[0.4975763962065332,0.3224446786090622],[0.31217391304347825,0.2482608695652174]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":47.449251017976145,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1276440554339898,0,99.87235594456602],[0,0.2950474183350896,0,0,0,17.281348788198102,0,49.75763962065332,0,0,32.66596417281349],[0,31.217391304347824,0,24.82608695652174,0,0.2391304347826087,12.195652173913043,12.217391304347826,19.304347826086957,0,0]],"volatility_latest":67.33403582718653,"volatility_previous":87.24843084253448,"volatility_mean":77.2912333348605,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52699","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Santacruz (Guachaves)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.761127831458893,2.4905930836767567,5.59152442613302],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52699|2023|Ordinary election|2311","CO-ALC-52699|2019|Ordinary election|2312","CO-ALC-52699|2015|Ordinary election|2313"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52699|2023|Ordinary election|2311","CO-ALC-52699|2019|Ordinary election|2312","CO-ALC-52699|2015|Ordinary election|2313"],"shares":[[0.5788056391572944,0.42119436084270556],[0.5124529654183838,0.4875470345816162],[0.5279576221306651,0.4720423778693349]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":46.18496466704167,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,57.88056391572945,0,0,0,0,42.11943608427055],[0,0,0,48.75470345816162,0,0,0,0,0,51.24529654183838,0],[0,0,0,47.20423778693349,0,0,0,0,0,52.79576221306651,0]],"volatility_latest":100.0,"volatility_previous":1.5504656712281317,"volatility_mean":50.77523283561406,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52720","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Sapuyes","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.929308975377282,13.202365863962818,13.320252888598219],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52720|2023|Ordinary election|2314","CO-ALC-52720|2019|Ordinary election|2315","CO-ALC-52720|2015|Ordinary election|2316"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52720|2023|Ordinary election|2314","CO-ALC-52720|2019|Ordinary election|2315","CO-ALC-52720|2015|Ordinary election|2316"],"shares":[[0.5550039714058776,0.34571088165210484],[0.542247570764681,0.4102239121250528],[0.5666012644429911,0.4333987355570089]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":10.748397833624812,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,9.928514694201747,0,0,0,0,0,0,34.57108816521048,0,55.500397140587765],[0,4.689480354879595,0,0,0,41.02239121250528,0,0,0,0,54.288128432615125],[0,0,43.33987355570089,56.66012644429911,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":41.022391212505276,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":70.51119560625264,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52786","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Taminango","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.958188499354456,4.687661331956633,7.517278043593834],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52786|2023|Ordinary election|2317","CO-ALC-52786|2019|Ordinary election|2318","CO-ALC-52786|2015|Ordinary election|2319"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52786|2023|Ordinary election|2317","CO-ALC-52786|2019|Ordinary election|2318","CO-ALC-52786|2015|Ordinary election|2319"],"shares":[[0.5113715363988479,0.4217896514053034],[0.3736706246773361,0.32679401135776975],[0.46007442849548114,0.3849016480595428]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":62.335303482204765,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,42.17896514053034,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,57.821034859469655],[2.343830665978317,37.36706246773361,0.030975735673722252,32.67940113577698,0,0,0,3.3970056788848737,0,0,24.181724315952504],[46.00744284954811,15.311004784688995,0,0,0,0,38.49016480595428,0,0,0,0.19138755980861244]],"volatility_latest":38.45121321631389,"volatility_previous":82.15377698952408,"volatility_mean":60.30249510291898,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52788","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Tangua","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.680851063829792,9.209464909922026,15.79911064608946],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52788|2023|Ordinary election|2320","CO-ALC-52788|2019|Ordinary election|2321","CO-ALC-52788|2015|Ordinary election|2322"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52788|2023|Ordinary election|2320","CO-ALC-52788|2019|Ordinary election|2321","CO-ALC-52788|2015|Ordinary election|2322"],"shares":[[0.439549436795995,0.3927409261576971],[0.471632159182576,0.37953751008335573],[0.5558461940884123,0.3978550876275177]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":64.24369412058286,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,6.270337922403003,0,0,0,0.26282853566958697,0,0,0,0,93.46683354192741],[0,0,37.95375100833557,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,62.04624899166443],[0,0,55.58461940884123,0,0,0,0,3.0081088150667017,0,0,41.407271776092074]],"volatility_latest":37.95375100833557,"volatility_previous":20.638977215572353,"volatility_mean":29.296364111953963,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52835","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Tumaco","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.164219525794543,2.38063806380638,4.629966586164688],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52835|2023|Ordinary election|2323","CO-ALC-52835|2019|Ordinary election|2324","CO-ALC-52835|2015|Ordinary election|2325"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52835|2023|Ordinary election|2323","CO-ALC-52835|2019|Ordinary election|2324","CO-ALC-52835|2015|Ordinary election|2325"],"shares":[[0.47800228340811934,0.4263600881501739],[0.2733993399339934,0.2495929592959296],[0.3499024051344824,0.30360273927283554]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":78.62140103382445,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[27.339933993399338,3.0876420975430876,0,0,2.126879354602127,2.957095709570957,21.236523652365236,0,0,0.39163916391639164,42.86028602860286],[0,0,28.974096006881265,0,2.281073212690641,0,0,0,0.32752175207595857,0,68.41730902835214]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":55.01283461679501,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52838","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Tuquerres","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[27.793490460157127,3.51135892355191,8.267090620031794],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52838|2023|Ordinary election|2326","CO-ALC-52838|2019|Ordinary election|2327","CO-ALC-52838|2015|Ordinary election|2328"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52838|2023|Ordinary election|2326","CO-ALC-52838|2019|Ordinary election|2327","CO-ALC-52838|2015|Ordinary election|2328"],"shares":[[0.5687991021324355,0.29086419753086423],[0.45320492143219204,0.41809133219667294],[0.4193397549798934,0.3366688487795754]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":7.218944924184855,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0.7833740380627621,0,0,0,0,0,0,99.21662596193724],[0,0,41.93397549798934,0,0,0,0,0,24.39913962405312,0,33.66688487795754]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":66.33311512204246,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-52885","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Yacuanquer","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.536082474226802,15.833207433147003,13.405681455473982],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-52885|2023|Ordinary election|2329","CO-ALC-52885|2019|Ordinary election|2330","CO-ALC-52885|2015|Ordinary election|2331"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-52885|2023|Ordinary election|2329","CO-ALC-52885|2019|Ordinary election|2330","CO-ALC-52885|2015|Ordinary election|2331"],"shares":[[0.47628865979381446,0.4309278350515464],[0.5035503852545702,0.3452183109231002],[0.5670284072773699,0.4329715927226301]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":55.939100699862095,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[47.628865979381445,6.914089347079038,0,0,0,0,0,0,2.3642611683848798,0,43.09278350515464],[10.968424233267866,0,0,0,34.521831092310016,0,0,0,0,0,54.50974467442212],[0,0,43.29715927226301,56.70284072773699,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":45.9387922615775,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":72.96939613078875,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54001","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Cucuta","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.7833179181030836,6.228808924860548,5.657545950445812],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54001|2023|Ordinary election|2332","CO-ALC-54001|2019|Ordinary election|2333","CO-ALC-54001|2015|Ordinary election|2334"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54001|2023|Ordinary election|2332","CO-ALC-54001|2019|Ordinary election|2333","CO-ALC-54001|2015|Ordinary election|2334"],"shares":[[0.3018683259059951,0.2940351467249643],[0.35403812624251274,0.2917500369939072],[0.37584069051635377,0.31926523101189563]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":85.47805988317702,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[3.350039567396465,5.780056745436882,0,0,10.39271445207198,35.40381262425127,6.907245015473104,0.9885415393325656,0.25606217549909605,0,36.92152788053862],[0,0,0,31.926523101189563,0,0.19314887433274183,2.9976413199845187,2.489758363090674,0.5323460468376893,0,61.86058229456481]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":58.643078210312446,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54003","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Abrego","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.726950354609926,2.755633670202748,13.745214323249002],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54003|2023|Ordinary election|2335","CO-ALC-54003|2019|Ordinary election|2336","CO-ALC-54003|2015|Ordinary election|2337"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54003|2023|Ordinary election|2335","CO-ALC-54003|2019|Ordinary election|2336","CO-ALC-54003|2015|Ordinary election|2337"],"shares":[[0.526595744680851,0.4693262411347518],[0.2988512962149269,0.2712949595128994],[0.42294122062908185,0.28548907739659185]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":71.8130912692416,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,52.659574468085104,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,47.340425531914896],[15.786830707425773,0,27.12949595128994,0,0,0,0,1.0482706672525266,0,0,56.035402674031765],[0.1501388784625779,0,42.29412206290819,28.548907739659185,0.022520831769386684,3.092860896329104,25.831394039486526,0,0,0,0.06005555138503115]],"volatility_latest":25.530078516795168,"volatility_previous":72.66030961886246,"volatility_mean":49.095194067828814,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54051","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Arboledas","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.245969932983151,2.076460314379972,6.390254327847828],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54051|2023|Ordinary election|2338","CO-ALC-54051|2019|Ordinary election|2339","CO-ALC-54051|2015|Ordinary election|2340"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54051|2023|Ordinary election|2338","CO-ALC-54051|2019|Ordinary election|2339","CO-ALC-54051|2015|Ordinary election|2340"],"shares":[[0.3932258648795508,0.37076616554971925],[0.5103823015718999,0.48961769842810016],[0.5319512716392392,0.46804872836076084]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":86.95227256555668,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0.14490128599891325,0,0,0,0,99.8550987140011],[0,0,0,0,51.038230157189986,0,0,0,0,0,48.961769842810014],[0,0,46.804872836076086,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,53.195127163923914]],"volatility_latest":51.03823015718999,"volatility_previous":51.038230157189986,"volatility_mean":51.038230157189986,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54099","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Bochalema","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[29.525327665603964,9.195867935993519,1.5180265654648935],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54099|2023|Ordinary election|2341","CO-ALC-54099|2019|Ordinary election|2342","CO-ALC-54099|2015|Ordinary election|2343"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54099|2023|Ordinary election|2341","CO-ALC-54099|2019|Ordinary election|2342","CO-ALC-54099|2015|Ordinary election|2343"],"shares":[[0.5147006730428622,0.21944739638682254],[0.4881506988049423,0.3961920194450071],[0.5075901328273245,0.49240986717267554]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,8.483882394615657,0,0,0,1.0095642933049946,0,0,0,0,90.50655331207935],[0,48.81506988049423,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,51.18493011950577],[0,49.24098671726755,50.75901328273245,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":40.33118748587857,"volatility_previous":51.18493011950577,"volatility_mean":45.758058802692176,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54109","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Bucarasica","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.355979096218878,26.590756865371738,1.382488479262669],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54109|2023|Ordinary election|2344","CO-ALC-54109|2019|Ordinary election|2345","CO-ALC-54109|2015|Ordinary election|2346"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54109|2023|Ordinary election|2344","CO-ALC-54109|2019|Ordinary election|2345","CO-ALC-54109|2015|Ordinary election|2346"],"shares":[[0.4352905010759299,0.2917307101137412],[0.629939718687207,0.3640321500334896],[0.4466501240694789,0.4328252392768522]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":16.35468317365444,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[62.9939718687207,0,36.40321500334896,0,0,0,0,0.6028131279303416,0,0,0],[44.66501240694789,0,0,12.052463665366892,0,0,0,0,0,0,43.28252392768522]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":55.33498759305211,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54125","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Cacota","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.304703476482615,16.476091476091476,10.62271062271062],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54125|2023|Ordinary election|2347","CO-ALC-54125|2019|Ordinary election|2348","CO-ALC-54125|2015|Ordinary election|2349"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54125|2023|Ordinary election|2347","CO-ALC-54125|2019|Ordinary election|2348","CO-ALC-54125|2015|Ordinary election|2349"],"shares":[[0.4667689161554192,0.37372188139059304],[0.5545738045738046,0.38981288981288986],[0.47802197802197804,0.3717948717948718]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":42.06039704505964,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,15.950920245398773,0,0,0,0,84.04907975460122],[0,38.981288981288984,5.509355509355509,0.05197505197505198,0,0,0,0,0,0,55.45738045738046],[15.018315018315018,0,0,0,0,37.17948717948718,0,0,0,0,47.8021978021978]],"volatility_latest":44.54261954261954,"volatility_previous":52.197802197802204,"volatility_mean":48.37021087021087,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54128","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Cachira","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.874745228830832,8.753218094887828,0.7610993657505247],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54128|2023|Ordinary election|2350","CO-ALC-54128|2019|Ordinary election|2351","CO-ALC-54128|2015|Ordinary election|2352"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54128|2023|Ordinary election|2350","CO-ALC-54128|2019|Ordinary election|2351","CO-ALC-54128|2015|Ordinary election|2352"],"shares":[[0.42857142857142855,0.34982397628312023],[0.5437660904744391,0.45623390952556087],[0.5038054968287526,0.49619450317124736]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":62.865387488300506,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,34.98239762831202,22.160459514545117,0,0,0,0,0,42.857142857142854],[54.376609047443914,0,0,0,45.623390952556086,0,0,0,0,0,0],[0,0,49.61945031712474,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,50.38054968287526]],"volatility_latest":77.83954048545488,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":88.91977024272744,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54172","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Chinacota","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.324336381887125,0.462633451957295,16.459330143540665],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54172|2023|Ordinary election|2353","CO-ALC-54172|2019|Ordinary election|2354","CO-ALC-54172|2015|Ordinary election|2355"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54172|2023|Ordinary election|2353","CO-ALC-54172|2019|Ordinary election|2354","CO-ALC-54172|2015|Ordinary election|2355"],"shares":[[0.3935980370287753,0.2703546732099041],[0.27295373665480427,0.2683274021352313],[0.33410799726589197,0.1695146958304853]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":54.103375604632355,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[9.145661387463752,0,0,0,7.38344858353781,27.03546732099041,0,0,0,0,56.43542270800803],[25.409252669039144,0,0,0,7.236061684460261,26.83274021352313,4.1637010676156585,0,0,7.758007117437723,28.60023724792408],[15.803144224196856,0,33.4107997265892,15.789473684210526,10.922761449077239,6.643882433356118,16.95146958304853,0,0.4784688995215311,0,0]],"volatility_latest":28.185299466628777,"volatility_previous":66.1532105903711,"volatility_mean":47.16925502849994,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54174","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Chitaga","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[46.14882506527416,4.445514363665545,9.115392583385123],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54174|2023|Ordinary election|2356","CO-ALC-54174|2019|Ordinary election|2357","CO-ALC-54174|2015|Ordinary election|2358"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54174|2023|Ordinary election|2356","CO-ALC-54174|2019|Ordinary election|2357","CO-ALC-54174|2015|Ordinary election|2358"],"shares":[[0.6649804177545693,0.20349216710182766],[0.38822018937570213,0.3437650457390467],[0.41226434638491816,0.3211104205510669]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,38.82201893757021,61.17798106242978],[0,32.111042055106694,0,0,21.731924590843175,1.3465920861818934,0,0,0,0,44.81044126786824]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":55.18955873213176,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54206","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Convencion","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.20874972240729,9.090909090909086,23.12943746586565],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54206|2023|Ordinary election|2359","CO-ALC-54206|2019|Ordinary election|2360","CO-ALC-54206|2015|Ordinary election|2361"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54206|2023|Ordinary election|2359","CO-ALC-54206|2019|Ordinary election|2360","CO-ALC-54206|2015|Ordinary election|2361"],"shares":[[0.5421940928270043,0.3401065956029313],[0.41199494949494947,0.32108585858585864],[0.5527034407427636,0.321409066084107]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":14.172668463481685,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2.4317121918720854,5.152120808349989,0,92.41616699977793],[41.19949494949495,0,0,0,0,32.10858585858586,11.578282828282829,0,0,0,15.113636363636363],[55.27034407427635,0,0,0,0,12.588749317312944,0,0,0,0,32.1409066084107]],"volatility_latest":84.88636363636364,"volatility_previous":31.098119369555743,"volatility_mean":57.99224150295969,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54223","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Cucutilla","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.26881720430107237,12.848689771766693,8.615245827695077],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54223|2023|Ordinary election|2362","CO-ALC-54223|2019|Ordinary election|2363","CO-ALC-54223|2015|Ordinary election|2364"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54223|2023|Ordinary election|2362","CO-ALC-54223|2019|Ordinary election|2363","CO-ALC-54223|2015|Ordinary election|2364"],"shares":[[0.45103686635944695,0.44834869431643626],[0.5276838546069316,0.3991969568892646],[0.5430762291384754,0.45692377086152464]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":75.61289081559921,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,39.91969568892646,7.311918850380389,0,0,0,0,0,52.76838546069315],[45.69237708615246,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,54.30762291384754]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":47.23161453930685,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54239","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Durania","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.716870675891428,13.446434181589701,23.001745200698082],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54239|2023|Ordinary election|2365","CO-ALC-54239|2019|Ordinary election|2366","CO-ALC-54239|2015|Ordinary election|2367"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54239|2023|Ordinary election|2365","CO-ALC-54239|2019|Ordinary election|2366","CO-ALC-54239|2015|Ordinary election|2367"],"shares":[[0.5385843533794571,0.46141564662054285],[0.5529374803644361,0.41847313854853907],[0.6150087260034904,0.38499127399650956]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":45.17886409959212,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,38.49912739965096,0,61.50087260034904,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54245","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"El Carmen","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.661492779052502,23.582180325376314,3.7908703206444514],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54245|2023|Ordinary election|2368","CO-ALC-54245|2019|Ordinary election|2369","CO-ALC-54245|2015|Ordinary election|2370"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54245|2023|Ordinary election|2368","CO-ALC-54245|2019|Ordinary election|2369","CO-ALC-54245|2015|Ordinary election|2370"],"shares":[[0.5336752598191389,0.41706033202861387],[0.6147179565151285,0.37889615326136533],[0.3395987995577318,0.3016900963512873]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":27.74681601445581,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,41.706033202861384,0,0,0.01349709812390336,0,0,0,58.28046969901471],[0,37.889615326136536,0,0,0,0,0,0.4865440170290406,0,0,61.623840656834425],[0,33.95987995577318,20.78660559153372,15.084504817564365,0,30.16900963512873,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":41.71953030098529,"volatility_previous":66.04012004422682,"volatility_mean":53.87982517260606,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54250","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"El Tarra","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.2043407043407015,14.323384873546686,13.688386998321377],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54250|2023|Ordinary election|2371","CO-ALC-54250|2019|Ordinary election|2372","CO-ALC-54250|2015|Ordinary election|2373"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54250|2023|Ordinary election|2371","CO-ALC-54250|2019|Ordinary election|2372","CO-ALC-54250|2015|Ordinary election|2373"],"shares":[[0.3337428337428337,0.30169942669942673],[0.5013784010547764,0.3581445523193096],[0.5684419349916069,0.4315580650083931]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":62.057707077497184,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,1.1261261261261262,0,14.035626535626536,21.079033579033577,0,63.75921375921376],[0,0,0,0,0,50.13784010547764,0,0,0,0,49.86215989452235],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,56.84419349916069,43.15580650083931,0]],"volatility_latest":49.01171397935152,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":74.50585698967576,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54261","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"El Zulia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.3443822643133885,7.855214893764277,2.109292287645573],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54261|2023|Ordinary election|2374","CO-ALC-54261|2019|Ordinary election|2375","CO-ALC-54261|2015|Ordinary election|2376"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54261|2023|Ordinary election|2374","CO-ALC-54261|2019|Ordinary election|2375","CO-ALC-54261|2015|Ordinary election|2376"],"shares":[[0.3304839800750261,0.32704015743189224],[0.41158557685652986,0.3330334279188871],[0.37511197980291555,0.35401905692645985]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":86.12938472259064,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,5.9405940594059405,0,0,26.33294385339155,0,0,0,67.7264620872025],[15.322859713474982,0,33.30334279188871,0,0,0,0,0,0,3.9656723648695413,47.408125129766766],[0,35.40190569264598,37.511197980291556,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,27.086896327062465]],"volatility_latest":52.591874870233234,"volatility_previous":39.60976088104883,"volatility_mean":46.10081787564103,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54313","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Gramalote","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.010946241790315,28.76636034530771,23.344625808438558],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54313|2023|Ordinary election|2377","CO-ALC-54313|2019|Ordinary election|2378","CO-ALC-54313|2015|Ordinary election|2379"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54313|2023|Ordinary election|2377","CO-ALC-54313|2019|Ordinary election|2378","CO-ALC-54313|2015|Ordinary election|2379"],"shares":[[0.41084894186329357,0.3607394794453904],[0.56947925368978,0.28181565023670285],[0.48968278410840776,0.2562365260240222]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":30.145307852448223,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[41.08489418632936,0,0,0,12.600340549744587,0,0,0,0,0,46.314765263926056],[28.181565023670288,0,0,0,0.9189640768588136,13.951545530492899,0,0,0,0,56.947925368978],[48.968278410840774,0,24.391746227286728,0,1.0163227594702802,0,25.623652602402217,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":24.584705635544843,"volatility_previous":70.8994708994709,"volatility_mean":47.74208826750787,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54344","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Hacari","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[23.825336211190436,2.6711813393528985,2.9759392148585917],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54344|2023|Ordinary election|2380","CO-ALC-54344|2019|Ordinary election|2381","CO-ALC-54344|2015|Ordinary election|2382"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54344|2023|Ordinary election|2380","CO-ALC-54344|2019|Ordinary election|2381","CO-ALC-54344|2015|Ordinary election|2382"],"shares":[[0.5490619292711273,0.310808567159223],[0.5133559066967645,0.4866440933032355],[0.381384550443225,0.3516251582946391]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":23.02924974997005,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0.1992362609995019,31.080856715922298,0,0,0,68.7199070230782],[0,0,0,0,0,0,51.33559066967645,0,0,0,48.66440933032355],[0,0,0,0,0,0,26.699029126213592,38.1384550443225,0,0,35.162515829463906]],"volatility_latest":20.254733953754155,"volatility_previous":38.1384550443225,"volatility_mean":29.196594499038326,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54347","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Herran","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.521924718665115,35.90875643855776,24.987869966035902],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54347|2023|Ordinary election|2383","CO-ALC-54347|2019|Ordinary election|2384","CO-ALC-54347|2015|Ordinary election|2385"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54347|2023|Ordinary election|2383","CO-ALC-54347|2019|Ordinary election|2384","CO-ALC-54347|2015|Ordinary election|2385"],"shares":[[0.4439270469538223,0.28870779976717115],[0.6795437821927888,0.32045621780721123],[0.6249393498301795,0.3750606501698205]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,44.39270469538223,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,55.60729530461778],null,[0,0,37.50606501698205,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,62.49393498301795]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54377","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Labateca","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[31.907308377896612,3.6138222104985545,9.039548022598865],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54377|2023|Ordinary election|2386","CO-ALC-54377|2019|Ordinary election|2387","CO-ALC-54377|2015|Ordinary election|2388"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54377|2023|Ordinary election|2386","CO-ALC-54377|2019|Ordinary election|2387","CO-ALC-54377|2015|Ordinary election|2388"],"shares":[[0.6595365418894831,0.3404634581105169],[0.5180691110524928,0.48193088894750724],[0.438480853735091,0.34808537350910235]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[34.808537350910235,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,65.19146264908977]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54385","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"La Esperanza","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.65675573955589,45.81986143187067,8.088888888888889],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54385|2023|Ordinary election|2389","CO-ALC-54385|2019|Ordinary election|2390","CO-ALC-54385|2015|Ordinary election|2391"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54385|2023|Ordinary election|2389","CO-ALC-54385|2019|Ordinary election|2390","CO-ALC-54385|2015|Ordinary election|2391"],"shares":[[0.5675573955589011,0.4109898381633421],[0.6561970746728253,0.19799846035411853],[0.5196444444444445,0.43875555555555557]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[56.7557395558901,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,43.2442604441099],[65.61970746728252,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,34.38029253271747],[0,0,43.87555555555556,0,4.16,0,0,0,0,0,51.964444444444446]],"volatility_latest":8.863967911392425,"volatility_previous":65.61970746728252,"volatility_mean":37.24183768933747,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54398","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"La Playa","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.985494880546078,22.93882978723404,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54398|2023|Ordinary election|2392","CO-ALC-54398|2019|Ordinary election|2393","CO-ALC-54398|2015|Ordinary election|2394"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54398|2023|Ordinary election|2392","CO-ALC-54398|2019|Ordinary election|2393","CO-ALC-54398|2015|Ordinary election|2394"],"shares":[[0.4929607508532423,0.38310580204778155],[0.5988475177304964,0.369459219858156],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[49.29607508532423,0.1493174061433447,0,0,0,0,11.412116040955631,0,0,0,39.14249146757679],[36.9459219858156,0,59.88475177304964,1.7287234042553192,0,1.4406028368794326,0,0,0,0,0],[100.0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":63.0540780141844,"volatility_previous":63.0540780141844,"volatility_mean":63.0540780141844,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54405","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Los Patios","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.424962510093433,10.9375,11.1158925257524],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54405|2023|Ordinary election|2395","CO-ALC-54405|2019|Ordinary election|2396","CO-ALC-54405|2015|Ordinary election|2397"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54405|2023|Ordinary election|2395","CO-ALC-54405|2019|Ordinary election|2396","CO-ALC-54405|2015|Ordinary election|2397"],"shares":[[0.320475256661668,0.27622563156073365],[0.5215798045602607,0.4122048045602606],[0.5133535945778758,0.4021946693203518]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":64.7609162068435,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,32.0475256661668,0,3.4213865497750606,0,0,0,0.9112931133925481,0,0,63.6197946706656],[0,0,0,0,0,3.1275447882736156,0,3.493994299674267,0,0,93.37846091205212],[0,40.21946693203518,0,0,0.0672386433931309,0,0,8.37793496678411,0,0,51.33535945778758]],"volatility_latest":35.468912215941856,"volatility_previous":45.170646242538155,"volatility_mean":40.319779229240005,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54418","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Lourdes","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.60152724748351,0.6703910614525128,2.0614219604543536],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54418|2023|Ordinary election|2398","CO-ALC-54418|2019|Ordinary election|2399","CO-ALC-54418|2015|Ordinary election|2400"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54418|2023|Ordinary election|2398","CO-ALC-54418|2019|Ordinary election|2399","CO-ALC-54418|2015|Ordinary election|2400"],"shares":[[0.5248177716070809,0.44880249913224574],[0.49459962756052145,0.4878957169459963],[0.5103071098022718,0.4896928901977282]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":75.15912068514352,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[44.880249913224574,2.499132245748004,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.62061784102742],[48.78957169459963,0,49.45996275605214,0,1.7504655493482308,0,0,0,0,0,0],[48.96928901977282,0,51.03071098022718,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":55.119750086775426,"volatility_previous":1.7504655493482293,"volatility_mean":28.435107818061827,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54480","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Mutiscua","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.98855112514805,15.933609958506224,7.99810695693327],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54480|2023|Ordinary election|2401","CO-ALC-54480|2019|Ordinary election|2402","CO-ALC-54480|2015|Ordinary election|2403"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54480|2023|Ordinary election|2401","CO-ALC-54480|2019|Ordinary election|2402","CO-ALC-54480|2015|Ordinary election|2403"],"shares":[[0.5649427556257403,0.43505724437425974],[0.5302904564315353,0.37095435684647304],[0.5399905347846663,0.46000946521533365]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":33.13487820832989,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,1.7842323651452283,8.091286307053942,0,0,0,0,90.12448132780084],null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54498","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Ocaña","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.0311404641552606,21.252171135379022,0.3388179019864026],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54498|2023|Ordinary election|2404","CO-ALC-54498|2019|Ordinary election|2405","CO-ALC-54498|2015|Ordinary election|2406"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54498|2023|Ordinary election|2404","CO-ALC-54498|2019|Ordinary election|2405","CO-ALC-54498|2015|Ordinary election|2406"],"shares":[[0.18267350477806887,0.16236210013651625],[0.46836630797181017,0.25584459661801995],[0.30037424983944905,0.296986070819585]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":61.858912953472476,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[4.859240674464082,2.920340921669188,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,92.22041840386673],[0,0,0,46.836630797181016,2.7670746071991856,0,0,15.410569186847411,0,0,34.98572540877238],[30.037424983944902,12.031357264654428,3.8620811834267115,14.558097304958256,0.13729875766769273,7.930110503354961,0,0.710853245344022,0,0,30.732776756649024]],"volatility_latest":65.01427459122762,"volatility_previous":53.860973935381004,"volatility_mean":59.437624263304315,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54518","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Pamplona","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.667769356392112,46.39032815198618,19.862473721093206],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54518|2023|Ordinary election|2407","CO-ALC-54518|2019|Ordinary election|2408","CO-ALC-54518|2015|Ordinary election|2409"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54518|2023|Ordinary election|2407","CO-ALC-54518|2019|Ordinary election|2408","CO-ALC-54518|2015|Ordinary election|2409"],"shares":[[0.27624471337046186,0.13956701980654077],[0.6408366916138937,0.17693341009403185],[0.46649439383321656,0.2678696566222845]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[10.866379129852184,0,7.805368284410201,0,4.187429337129936,0,0,1.1389807796993425,0,0,76.00184246890834],[8.531951640759932,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.2204951065054692,0,0,90.24755325273459],[5.1156271899089,26.78696566222845,0.35914505956552206,4.498072880168185,46.649439383321656,16.433076384022424,0,0,0,0,0.15767344078486334]],"volatility_latest":14.327225110632385,"volatility_previous":94.72669936930623,"volatility_mean":54.52696223996931,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54520","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Pamplonita","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2025,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,10.02865329512894,13.047619047619044],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2025-03-09 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54520|CO-ALC-54520-2025-03-09-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6798","CO-ALC-54520|2023|Ordinary election|2410","CO-ALC-54520|2019|Ordinary election|2411"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54520|CO-ALC-54520-2025-03-09-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6798","CO-ALC-54520|2023|Ordinary election|2410","CO-ALC-54520|2019|Ordinary election|2411","CO-ALC-54520|2015|Ordinary election|2412"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.3005730659025788,0.2002865329512894],[0.5438095238095237,0.41333333333333333]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,14.040114613180515,0,0,0,5.616045845272207,0,0,0,0,80.34383954154728],[41.333333333333336,0,0,0,4.285714285714286,0,0,0,0,0,54.38095238095238]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":45.61904761904762,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54553","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Puerto Santander","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.697242621587918,10.488176964149503,14.550966275104209],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54553|2023|Ordinary election|2413","CO-ALC-54553|2019|Ordinary election|2414","CO-ALC-54553|2015|Ordinary election|2415"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54553|2023|Ordinary election|2413","CO-ALC-54553|2019|Ordinary election|2414","CO-ALC-54553|2015|Ordinary election|2415"],"shares":[[0.358182070112235,0.3112096438963558],[0.4209255021612001,0.3160437325197051],[0.5490716180371353,0.4035619552860932]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":62.900523551459884,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,1.1500623527781626,0,0,0,98.84993764722184],[31.604373251970507,0,0,0,42.09255021612001,0,0,0.1779811848461734,0,0,26.12509534706331],[54.90716180371353,0,40.35619552860932,0,4.717696097006442,0,0,0,0,0,0.018946570670708603]],"volatility_latest":73.87490465293669,"volatility_previous":63.65898408035234,"volatility_mean":68.76694436664451,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54599","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Ragonvalia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.32373386295928,35.02269288956127,11.852557991738166],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54599|2023|Ordinary election|2416","CO-ALC-54599|2019|Ordinary election|2417","CO-ALC-54599|2015|Ordinary election|2418"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54599|2023|Ordinary election|2416","CO-ALC-54599|2019|Ordinary election|2417","CO-ALC-54599|2015|Ordinary election|2418"],"shares":[[0.4468718967229394,0.4236345580933466],[0.5578668683812406,0.20763993948562784],[0.5592627899586908,0.44073721004130917]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":34.56848008091118,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[12.9493545183714,0,0,44.68718967229394,0,0,0,0,0,0,42.36345580933466],[0,0,7.337367624810892,0,16.11195158850227,0,0,0,0,0,76.55068078668684],[55.92627899586908,0,0,44.07372100413092,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":57.63654419066534,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":78.81827209533267,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54660","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Salazar","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.869870669008463,6.979096426163181,9.995969367190646],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54660|2023|Ordinary election|2419","CO-ALC-54660|2019|Ordinary election|2420","CO-ALC-54660|2015|Ordinary election|2421"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54660|2023|Ordinary election|2419","CO-ALC-54660|2019|Ordinary election|2420","CO-ALC-54660|2015|Ordinary election|2421"],"shares":[[0.31630209164936934,0.2676033849592847],[0.534895482130816,0.4651045178691841],[0.469770253929867,0.3698105602579605]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":69.92375867013452,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[20.533290755229125,0,0,0,0,3.3530257065304165,0,0,0,0,76.11368353824047],[0,0,0,46.51045178691841,0,0,0,0,0,0,53.48954821308159],[36.98105602579605,0,46.9770253929867,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,16.04191858121725]],"volatility_latest":46.51045178691841,"volatility_previous":83.95808141878275,"volatility_mean":65.23426660285058,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54670","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"San Calixto","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.1101578060364616,8.91556780161386,40.64781021897811],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54670|2023|Ordinary election|2422","CO-ALC-54670|2019|Ordinary election|2423","CO-ALC-54670|2015|Ordinary election|2424"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54670|2023|Ordinary election|2422","CO-ALC-54670|2019|Ordinary election|2423","CO-ALC-54670|2015|Ordinary election|2424"],"shares":[[0.502221541290026,0.47111996322966143],[0.4359378075182051,0.3467821295020665],[0.5770985401459854,0.17062043795620435]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":56.97226976998078,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,47.11199632296614,0,52.88800367703386],[0,0,0,0,0,9.545365085613069,7.104900610116119,0.9250147608738437,0,0,82.42471954339698],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,10.196167883211679,17.062043795620436,15.031934306569344,57.70985401459854]],"volatility_latest":47.11199632296614,"volatility_previous":41.365131224527616,"volatility_mean":44.238563773746876,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54673","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"San Cayetano","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[19.68329957650525,1.6143911439114405,19.69315895372233],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54673|2023|Ordinary election|2425","CO-ALC-54673|2019|Ordinary election|2426","CO-ALC-54673|2015|Ordinary election|2427"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54673|2023|Ordinary election|2425","CO-ALC-54673|2019|Ordinary election|2426","CO-ALC-54673|2015|Ordinary election|2427"],"shares":[[0.3625483336402136,0.1657153378751611],[0.32103321033210336,0.30488929889298894],[0.5918008048289738,0.3948692152917505]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":28.681935077755927,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[5.487018965199779,16.57153378751611,12.94420916958203,11.618486466580741,16.4794697109188,36.25483336402136,0,0,0,0,0.6444485361811821],[20.29520295202952,0,0,0,11.900369003690036,0.5535055350553506,0,4.497232472324724,0,0,62.75369003690037],[0,0,0,0,0.8802816901408451,0,39.48692152917505,0,0,0,59.6327967806841]],"volatility_latest":81.41465795987365,"volatility_previous":39.48692152917505,"volatility_mean":60.45078974452435,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54680","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Santiago","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.902498975829577,74.4489428699955,6.0714285714285765],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54680|2023|Ordinary election|2428","CO-ALC-54680|2019|Ordinary election|2429","CO-ALC-54680|2015|Ordinary election|2430"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54680|2023|Ordinary election|2428","CO-ALC-54680|2019|Ordinary election|2429","CO-ALC-54680|2015|Ordinary election|2430"],"shares":[[0.4883244571896763,0.3092994674313806],[0.8439046333783176,0.09941520467836257],[0.4986607142857143,0.4379464285714285]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[30.929946743138057,0,0,0,20.237607537894306,0,0,0,0,0,48.832445718967634],[0,0,0,5.668016194331984,9.941520467836257,0,0,0,0,0,84.39046333783176],[49.86607142857143,0,43.794642857142854,6.339285714285714,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":41.22603381319611,"volatility_previous":94.33198380566802,"volatility_mean":67.77900880943207,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54720","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Sardinata","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[23.899533920248572,2.745360627511001,17.034178610804855],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54720|2023|Ordinary election|2431","CO-ALC-54720|2019|Ordinary election|2432","CO-ALC-54720|2015|Ordinary election|2433"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54720|2023|Ordinary election|2431","CO-ALC-54720|2019|Ordinary election|2432","CO-ALC-54720|2015|Ordinary election|2433"],"shares":[[0.5012083549110996,0.26221301570861383],[0.29299789554237615,0.26554428926726614],[0.4567805953693495,0.286438809261301]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":15.66626799258536,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,26.221301570861385,0,0.2503020887277749,6.153978940100121,0,0,0,67.3744174003107],[0,0,0,25.368280084178306,0,0,29.299789554237613,2.6784006122058543,0,9.737899368662713,32.91563038071551],[45.67805953693495,0,24.343991179713342,28.643880926130098,1.3340683572216097,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":35.562110595006054,"volatility_previous":74.63171991582169,"volatility_mean":55.096915255413876,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54743","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Silos","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.5836452634609834,2.981109799291616,1.9026120606256036],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54743|2023|Ordinary election|2434","CO-ALC-54743|2019|Ordinary election|2435","CO-ALC-54743|2015|Ordinary election|2436"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54743|2023|Ordinary election|2434","CO-ALC-54743|2019|Ordinary election|2435","CO-ALC-54743|2015|Ordinary election|2436"],"shares":[[0.3270947307803052,0.31125827814569534],[0.4391971664698937,0.40938606847697756],[0.3008706868752016,0.2818445662689455]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":89.82609348036682,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[14.339188021883098,0,0,21.825511085516844,0,0,0,0,0,0,63.83530089260006],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,15.14167650531287,84.85832349468713],[0,14.833924540470816,28.18445662689455,26.89455014511448,0,0,0,0,0,0,30.087068687520155]],"volatility_latest":36.16469910739994,"volatility_previous":69.91293131247984,"volatility_mean":53.03881520993989,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54800","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Teorama","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.891327309001291,13.94849785407726,3.7288671196081538],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54800|2023|Ordinary election|2437","CO-ALC-54800|2019|Ordinary election|2438","CO-ALC-54800|2015|Ordinary election|2439"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54800|2023|Ordinary election|2437","CO-ALC-54800|2019|Ordinary election|2438","CO-ALC-54800|2015|Ordinary election|2439"],"shares":[[0.37695106208191526,0.3180377889919023],[0.5697424892703863,0.4302575107296137],[0.3698846579238426,0.3325959867277611]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":59.53883773207617,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,29.280600868442672,0,0,31.803778899190235,0,38.91562023236709],[0,0,0,0,0,0,43.02575107296137,0,0,0,56.97424892703863],[0,8.137146468636436,0,0,0,0,0,33.25959867277611,0,0,58.60325485858745]],"volatility_latest":61.08437976763291,"volatility_previous":43.02575107296136,"volatility_mean":52.05506542029714,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54810","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Tibu","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.4915114629570283,8.397710220641365,12.774861682508153],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54810|2023|Ordinary election|2440","CO-ALC-54810|2019|Ordinary election|2441","CO-ALC-54810|2015|Ordinary election|2442"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54810|2023|Ordinary election|2440","CO-ALC-54810|2019|Ordinary election|2441","CO-ALC-54810|2015|Ordinary election|2442"],"shares":[[0.2828902210222852,0.24797510639271497],[0.4760184516200745,0.39204134941366087],[0.37033621790324867,0.24258760107816713]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":70.5414694389128,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,16.844369194160986,0,0,0,83.15563080583901],[47.60184516200745,0,6.930472961707331,0,0,0,3.1345523259045183,0.8447729672650475,0,0,41.48835658311565],[24.258760107816713,0,0.7447864945382324,0,0,0,37.033621790324865,2.2981983260036887,13.987799687898994,0,21.676833593417506]],"volatility_latest":55.377091090979825,"volatility_previous":49.340294511057984,"volatility_mean":52.358692801018904,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54820","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Toledo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[30.32805956258725,3.000968054211036,26.714170475934395],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54820|2023|Ordinary election|2443","CO-ALC-54820|2019|Ordinary election|2444","CO-ALC-54820|2015|Ordinary election|2445"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54820|2023|Ordinary election|2443","CO-ALC-54820|2019|Ordinary election|2444","CO-ALC-54820|2015|Ordinary election|2445"],"shares":[[0.6395998138669148,0.33631921824104233],[0.3639883833494676,0.33397870280735725],[0.5389889755310567,0.27184727077171283]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[30.20329138431752,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,69.79670861568249],[18.916375369723045,0,27.18472707717128,53.89889755310568,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":81.08362463027696,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54871","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Villa Caro","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.8448790188929394,7.150188162846391,17.181467181467184],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54871|2023|Ordinary election|2446","CO-ALC-54871|2019|Ordinary election|2447","CO-ALC-54871|2015|Ordinary election|2448"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54871|2023|Ordinary election|2446","CO-ALC-54871|2019|Ordinary election|2447","CO-ALC-54871|2015|Ordinary election|2448"],"shares":[[0.5018230029830958,0.4633742127941664],[0.5357509408142319,0.46424905918576803],[0.5266409266409267,0.3548262548262548]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":69.14934710831801,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[46.33742127941664,0,0,0,50.18230029830958,0,0,0,0,0,3.480278422273782],[53.575094081423195,0,0,0,46.424905918576805,0,0,0,0,0,0],[35.48262548262548,0,0,0,0,11.853281853281853,0,0,0,0,52.664092664092664]],"volatility_latest":7.237672802006556,"volatility_previous":64.51737451737452,"volatility_mean":35.87752365969054,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-54874","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Villa Del Rosario","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.99105406456632,0.1504308770120133,18.32109887665443],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-54874|2023|Ordinary election|2449","CO-ALC-54874|2019|Ordinary election|2450","CO-ALC-54874|2015|Ordinary election|2451"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-54874|2023|Ordinary election|2449","CO-ALC-54874|2019|Ordinary election|2450","CO-ALC-54874|2015|Ordinary election|2451"],"shares":[[0.555853753403345,0.37594321275768183],[0.3603679109449208,0.3588636021748007],[0.4808697586475364,0.2976587698809921]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":36.64064205245581,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.35783741734733565,0,99.64216258265267],[0,0,35.88636021748007,15.021597575913868,5.144735993810844,0,0,3.5523177100122494,0,0,40.39498850278297],[0,0,0,0,6.264597931264598,0,0,0,0,48.08697586475364,45.648426203981764]],"volatility_latest":59.605011497217035,"volatility_previous":54.46027550340619,"volatility_mean":57.03264350031161,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-63001","country":"Colombia","region":"Quindio","name":"Armenia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.697430205754291,7.61752663508328,18.26257900761459],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-63001|2023|Ordinary election|2452","CO-ALC-63001|2019|Ordinary election|2453","CO-ALC-63001|2015|Ordinary election|2454"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-63001|2023|Ordinary election|2452","CO-ALC-63001|2019|Ordinary election|2453","CO-ALC-63001|2015|Ordinary election|2454"],"shares":[[0.3048151626398019,0.22784086058225902],[0.3116679885956826,0.23549272224484985],[0.5889447402909803,0.4063189502148344]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":56.350129926304916,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,4.384017758046615,0,0,0,0,0,95.61598224195338],[0,0,0,0,0,8.207035520589937,0,31.166798859568264,0,2.4587879697313983,58.1673776501104],[0,58.89447402909803,0,0,0,0.4736309494185371,0,0,0,0,40.63189502148344]],"volatility_latest":41.83262234988959,"volatility_previous":58.89447402909803,"volatility_mean":50.36354818949381,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-63111","country":"Colombia","region":"Quindio","name":"Buenavista","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.663265306122447,20.2247191011236,7.5854082223508925],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-63111|2023|Ordinary election|2455","CO-ALC-63111|2019|Ordinary election|2456","CO-ALC-63111|2015|Ordinary election|2457"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-63111|2023|Ordinary election|2455","CO-ALC-63111|2019|Ordinary election|2456","CO-ALC-63111|2015|Ordinary election|2457"],"shares":[[0.5137755102040816,0.35714285714285715],[0.4577173270254288,0.2554701360141928],[0.42559351476548923,0.3497394325419803]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":18.880421318771813,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,35.714285714285715,0,0,0,0,0,0,64.28571428571428],[0,0,25.547013601419277,0,0,4.316972205795388,0,0,0,0,70.13601419278534],[17.776491024898668,0,0,0,0,0,42.559351476548926,0,0,0,39.664157498552406]],"volatility_latest":35.71428571428572,"volatility_previous":60.335842501447594,"volatility_mean":48.025064107866655,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-63130","country":"Colombia","region":"Quindio","name":"Calarca","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.780013679398106,2.382912012541645,6.095996759603054],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-63130|2023|Ordinary election|2458","CO-ALC-63130|2019|Ordinary election|2459","CO-ALC-63130|2015|Ordinary election|2460"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-63130|2023|Ordinary election|2458","CO-ALC-63130|2019|Ordinary election|2459","CO-ALC-63130|2015|Ordinary election|2460"],"shares":[[0.292379135318046,0.20457899852406494],[0.35908289241622576,0.3352537722908093],[0.3099642206170256,0.24900425302099508]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":67.03759256319168,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[19.673134382087188,20.457899852406495,0,0,0,29.2379135318046,0,0,0,0,30.63105223370172],[0,0,0,0,0,0,9.931412894375857,0,0,0,90.06858710562415],[0,24.900425302099507,16.823060824951057,11.408897589954769,11.547289542969013,0,0,0,0,0,35.320326740025656]],"volatility_latest":69.36894776629828,"volatility_previous":64.67967325997435,"volatility_mean":67.02431051313631,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-63190","country":"Colombia","region":"Quindio","name":"Circasia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.278819595871497,0.9817224040226691,8.033843048979278],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-63190|2023|Ordinary election|2461","CO-ALC-63190|2019|Ordinary election|2462","CO-ALC-63190|2015|Ordinary election|2463"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-63190|2023|Ordinary election|2461","CO-ALC-63190|2019|Ordinary election|2462","CO-ALC-63190|2015|Ordinary election|2463"],"shares":[[0.49004215729030387,0.40725396133158887],[0.4057785936627025,0.39596136962247586],[0.3420010867034076,0.26166265621361484]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":69.67403608186187,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-63212","country":"Colombia","region":"Quindio","name":"Cordoba","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.9562535053281,8.418763591177385,18.305926155755508],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-63212|2023|Ordinary election|2464","CO-ALC-63212|2019|Ordinary election|2465","CO-ALC-63212|2015|Ordinary election|2466"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-63212|2023|Ordinary election|2464","CO-ALC-63212|2019|Ordinary election|2465","CO-ALC-63212|2015|Ordinary election|2466"],"shares":[[0.5386988222097588,0.37913628715647785],[0.40198819509164335,0.31780055917986955],[0.5851690971144896,0.4021098355569345]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":30.350131019371872,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0.3645541222658441,0,0,0,0,99.63544587773414],[0,0,0,0,0,1.460080770425598,0,0,0,23.299161230195715,75.2407579993787],[0,1.2721067328575861,0,0,40.21098355569345,0,0,0,0,0,58.51690971144896]],"volatility_latest":24.394687878355455,"volatility_previous":41.48309028855105,"volatility_mean":32.93888908345325,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-63272","country":"Colombia","region":"Quindio","name":"Filandia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.760757314974185,38.65062761506276,16.98329511955454],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-63272|2023|Ordinary election|2467","CO-ALC-63272|2019|Ordinary election|2468","CO-ALC-63272|2015|Ordinary election|2469"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-63272|2023|Ordinary election|2467","CO-ALC-63272|2019|Ordinary election|2468","CO-ALC-63272|2015|Ordinary election|2469"],"shares":[[0.4542168674698795,0.36660929432013767],[0.6169804741980475,0.2304741980474198],[0.5771372420569931,0.40730429086144776]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":7.250139072706041,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[23.04741980474198,0,0,0,61.698047419804745,0,0,0,0,0,15.254532775453276],[0,0,0,0,1.5558467081559122,0,0,0,0,0,98.44415329184409]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":83.18962051639082,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-63302","country":"Colombia","region":"Quindio","name":"Genova","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.011170584128458,5.5114200595829175,12.347354138398913],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-63302|2023|Ordinary election|2470","CO-ALC-63302|2019|Ordinary election|2471","CO-ALC-63302|2015|Ordinary election|2472"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-63302|2023|Ordinary election|2470","CO-ALC-63302|2019|Ordinary election|2471","CO-ALC-63302|2015|Ordinary election|2472"],"shares":[[0.5208284849895276,0.360716779148243],[0.39126117179741804,0.3361469712015889],[0.4131614654002713,0.2896879240162822]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":37.525681089040795,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,6.876861966236346,0,0,1.5143992055610724,0,0,0,0,91.60873882820258],[6.671189507010403,0,4.341926729986431,41.316146540027134,6.829488919041158,0,0,0,0,11.87245590230665,28.96879240162822]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":66.68928086838534,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-63401","country":"Colombia","region":"Quindio","name":"La Tebaida","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.5709983058291996,8.50006899406651,5.382658054413781],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-63401|2023|Ordinary election|2473","CO-ALC-63401|2019|Ordinary election|2474","CO-ALC-63401|2015|Ordinary election|2475"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-63401|2023|Ordinary election|2473","CO-ALC-63401|2019|Ordinary election|2474","CO-ALC-63401|2015|Ordinary election|2475"],"shares":[[0.2611532910836418,0.2554433080253498],[0.4513591831102525,0.3663584931695874],[0.3228942389247733,0.2690676583806355]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":82.84557256420575,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,2.7985191692288387,0,0,0,0,0,3.4573633682625338,1.5624019577084771,0,92.18171550480015],[0,0,0,18.228232372016006,0,0,0,0,0,0,81.77176762798399],[0,0.9525673647811053,32.28942389247733,11.156782149148562,3.3535590787499183,0,25.340901676779538,0,26.90676583806355,0,0]],"volatility_latest":18.22823237201601,"volatility_previous":88.84321785085143,"volatility_mean":53.53572511143372,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-63470","country":"Colombia","region":"Quindio","name":"Montenegro","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.609357593761601,9.461528646165625,55.58730725724831],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-63470|2023|Ordinary election|2476","CO-ALC-63470|2019|Ordinary election|2477","CO-ALC-63470|2015|Ordinary election|2478"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-63470|2023|Ordinary election|2476","CO-ALC-63470|2019|Ordinary election|2477","CO-ALC-63470|2015|Ordinary election|2478"],"shares":[[0.3486817675454883,0.21258819160787226],[0.34898558121730255,0.25437029475564626],[0.6938739060546526,0.13800083348216943]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":17.1859806208426,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,3.1439534595865823,0,0,0,0,96.85604654041342],[0,0,2.4945770065075923,14.884522138573434,25.43702947556463,0,34.898558121730254,0,0,0,22.285313257624093],[0,13.800083348216944,0,0,5.864142406382092,10.948383639935702,0,0,0,0,69.38739060546526]],"volatility_latest":77.7146867423759,"volatility_previous":71.85054433599382,"volatility_mean":74.78261553918486,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-63548","country":"Colombia","region":"Quindio","name":"Pijao","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[31.350866706515244,5.512301463718472,24.63768115942029],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-63548|2023|Ordinary election|2479","CO-ALC-63548|2019|Ordinary election|2480","CO-ALC-63548|2015|Ordinary election|2481"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-63548|2023|Ordinary election|2479","CO-ALC-63548|2019|Ordinary election|2480","CO-ALC-63548|2015|Ordinary election|2481"],"shares":[[0.6222355050806934,0.3087268380155409],[0.5275615073185924,0.47243849268140764],[0.5481670929241261,0.3017902813299233]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[30.872683801554093,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,69.12731619844591],null,[12.617220801364024,0,0,30.17902813299233,2.3870417732310316,0,54.81670929241262,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-63594","country":"Colombia","region":"Quindio","name":"Quimbaya","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.532887145165013,16.468601073776924,10.387925952128285],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-63594|2023|Ordinary election|2482","CO-ALC-63594|2019|Ordinary election|2483","CO-ALC-63594|2015|Ordinary election|2484"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-63594|2023|Ordinary election|2482","CO-ALC-63594|2019|Ordinary election|2483","CO-ALC-63594|2015|Ordinary election|2484"],"shares":[[0.2960420032310178,0.2707131317793677],[0.536948784460397,0.3722627737226277],[0.5519396297606414,0.4480603702393586]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":62.50447397777543,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,2.330948534502654,0,0,0,97.66905146549736],[53.694878446039695,0,0,0,0,0,37.22627737226277,0,0,0,9.078844181697534],null],"volatility_latest":88.59020728379983,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-63690","country":"Colombia","region":"Quindio","name":"Salento","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.062261753494276,4.306472919418752,0.725388601036272],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-63690|2023|Ordinary election|2485","CO-ALC-63690|2019|Ordinary election|2486","CO-ALC-63690|2015|Ordinary election|2487"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-63690|2023|Ordinary election|2485","CO-ALC-63690|2019|Ordinary election|2486","CO-ALC-63690|2015|Ordinary election|2487"],"shares":[[0.508259212198221,0.3776365946632783],[0.5215323645970937,0.47846763540290627],[0.5036269430051814,0.49637305699481865]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":53.990811059870914,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-66001","country":"Colombia","region":"Risaralda","name":"Pereira","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.217084313996956,2.5747383574909257,36.12045465414721],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-66001|2023|Ordinary election|2488","CO-ALC-66001|2019|Ordinary election|2489","CO-ALC-66001|2015|Ordinary election|2490"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-66001|2023|Ordinary election|2488","CO-ALC-66001|2019|Ordinary election|2489","CO-ALC-66001|2015|Ordinary election|2490"],"shares":[[0.4079725480113131,0.3158017048713435],[0.3121999720362286,0.2864525884613194],[0.6733089958392451,0.312104449297773]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":50.42641219469915,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,2.8930400901880895,0,0,0,0,97.10695990981192],[0,0,0,4.018497516920671,11.234704075978602,14.090633690130343,0,0,4.359241249669872,6.057263589616119,60.239659877684396],[0,67.3308995839245,0,0,0,0,0,1.4586554862982033,0,0,31.210444929777296]],"volatility_latest":36.867300032127524,"volatility_previous":68.7895550702227,"volatility_mean":52.82842755117511,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-66045","country":"Colombia","region":"Risaralda","name":"Apia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.337806923898128,14.18586179507546,2.75609367532261],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-66045|2023|Ordinary election|2491","CO-ALC-66045|2019|Ordinary election|2492","CO-ALC-66045|2015|Ordinary election|2493"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-66045|2023|Ordinary election|2491","CO-ALC-66045|2019|Ordinary election|2492","CO-ALC-66045|2015|Ordinary election|2493"],"shares":[[0.5134970260789996,0.4601189568400183],[0.5493248610007943,0.4074662430500397],[0.4698104189899634,0.44224948223673727]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":61.32973969803112,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[46.01189568400183,51.34970260789996,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2.6384017080982156],[54.93248610007943,40.74662430500397,1.6838760921366163,0,1.9857029388403495,0.6513105639396346,0,0,0,0,0],[44.22494822367373,0,0,0,8.794009877329934,0,0,0,0,0,46.98104189899634]],"volatility_latest":13.241480010994202,"volatility_previous":53.789348837485925,"volatility_mean":33.51541442424006,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-66075","country":"Colombia","region":"Risaralda","name":"Balboa","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.847691855336663,12.733100233100238,23.957016434892537],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-66075|2023|Ordinary election|2494","CO-ALC-66075|2019|Ordinary election|2495","CO-ALC-66075|2015|Ordinary election|2496"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-66075|2023|Ordinary election|2494","CO-ALC-66075|2019|Ordinary election|2495","CO-ALC-66075|2015|Ordinary election|2496"],"shares":[[0.5010291090855631,0.3225521905321964],[0.46503496503496505,0.3377039627039627],[0.6197850821744627,0.3802149178255373]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":15.378765866893396,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,32.25521905321964,12.37871214348721,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,55.366068803293146],[0,33.77039627039627,15.413752913752914,0,4.312354312354312,0,0,0,0,0,46.50349650349651],[0,61.97850821744627,38.02149178255373,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":8.862572299796643,"volatility_previous":50.815850815850816,"volatility_mean":29.83921155782373,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-66088","country":"Colombia","region":"Risaralda","name":"Belen De Umbria","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.375328975295016,15.676939058171744,39.524647887323944],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-66088|2023|Ordinary election|2497","CO-ALC-66088|2019|Ordinary election|2498","CO-ALC-66088|2015|Ordinary election|2499"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-66088|2023|Ordinary election|2497","CO-ALC-66088|2019|Ordinary election|2498","CO-ALC-66088|2015|Ordinary election|2499"],"shares":[[0.2937431021309109,0.2799898123779608],[0.42823753462603875,0.2714681440443213],[0.6439260563380281,0.24867957746478872]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":52.59628054319536,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[20.434671873673487,0,27.998981237796077,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,51.566346888530425],[6.466412742382271,42.823753462603875,0,27.14681440443213,23.56301939058172,0,0,0,0,0,0],[24.867957746478872,0,0,0,0,0,3.1338028169014085,1.5933098591549295,0,6.012323943661972,64.39260563380282]],"volatility_latest":93.53358725761773,"volatility_previous":93.53358725761773,"volatility_mean":93.53358725761773,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-66170","country":"Colombia","region":"Risaralda","name":"Dosquebradas","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.5088101392041366,9.319683779197305,47.49847770366909],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-66170|2023|Ordinary election|2500","CO-ALC-66170|2019|Ordinary election|2501","CO-ALC-66170|2015|Ordinary election|2502"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-66170|2023|Ordinary election|2500","CO-ALC-66170|2019|Ordinary election|2501","CO-ALC-66170|2015|Ordinary election|2502"],"shares":[[0.3185426206064105,0.3034545192143691],[0.4296850209020295,0.3364881831100564],[0.6268037441409292,0.15181896710423837]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":57.744805061757084,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,30.34545192143691,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,69.6545480785631],[0,0,0,0,15.27158841627461,5.847049571611871,0,2.264041610904927,0,0,76.61732040120859],[0,0,0,0,8.075959046688475,0,0,0,2.7684551878442867,11.293314640950479,77.86227112451675]],"volatility_latest":30.345451921436904,"volatility_previous":15.306720552102933,"volatility_mean":22.826086236769918,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-66318","country":"Colombia","region":"Risaralda","name":"Guatica","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[50.26228602981777,3.1612998088516377,3.4982277700724254],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-66318|2023|Ordinary election|2503","CO-ALC-66318|2019|Ordinary election|2504","CO-ALC-66318|2015|Ordinary election|2505"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-66318|2023|Ordinary election|2503","CO-ALC-66318|2019|Ordinary election|2504","CO-ALC-66318|2015|Ordinary election|2505"],"shares":[[0.7487575924903368,0.246134732192159],[0.49919129539773566,0.4675782973092193],[0.3794113114501464,0.34442903374942213]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[46.75782973092193,3.323040729304514,0,0,0,0,0,49.919129539773564,0,0,0],[37.94113114501464,0,0,0,9.323470488519032,0,34.44290337494221,0,0,0,18.29249499152412]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":62.05886885498536,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-66383","country":"Colombia","region":"Risaralda","name":"La Celia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.932402095285603,4.953009906019815,24.223918575063614],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-66383|2023|Ordinary election|2506","CO-ALC-66383|2019|Ordinary election|2507","CO-ALC-66383|2015|Ordinary election|2508"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-66383|2023|Ordinary election|2506","CO-ALC-66383|2019|Ordinary election|2507","CO-ALC-66383|2015|Ordinary election|2508"],"shares":[[0.5101022698927413,0.32077824893988527],[0.5128270256540514,0.46329692659385313],[0.5646310432569974,0.32239185750636135]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":23.661319567581664,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,32.07782489398853,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,67.92217510601147],[2.3876047752095504,46.329692659385316,0,0,51.28270256540513,0,0,0,0,0,0],[11.297709923664122,0,56.463104325699746,32.23918575063613,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":67.92217510601147,"volatility_previous":97.61239522479045,"volatility_mean":82.76728516540095,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-66400","country":"Colombia","region":"Risaralda","name":"La Virginia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[21.01427269966596,14.74620681250381,2.206673842841763],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-66400|2023|Ordinary election|2509","CO-ALC-66400|2019|Ordinary election|2510","CO-ALC-66400|2015|Ordinary election|2511"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-66400|2023|Ordinary election|2509","CO-ALC-66400|2019|Ordinary election|2510","CO-ALC-66400|2015|Ordinary election|2511"],"shares":[[0.48296386273914366,0.27282113574248407],[0.4030223630491744,0.25556029492413623],[0.2975122592991269,0.2754455208707093]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":13.734534760825523,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[27.282113574248406,0,0,0,0,0,48.296386273914365,0,0,0,24.42150015183723],[0,25.501188227408445,4.801657424897934,25.556029492413625,0,0,0,0,0,0,44.14112485528],[0,29.75122592991269,5.316349718933142,0,10.955627317306542,0,0,1.9854084439660327,0,0,51.991388589881595]],"volatility_latest":75.57849984816278,"volatility_previous":25.556029492413625,"volatility_mean":50.5672646702882,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-66440","country":"Colombia","region":"Risaralda","name":"Marsella","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.4871982443306493,27.260324941088925,17.657520325203247],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-66440|2023|Ordinary election|2512","CO-ALC-66440|2019|Ordinary election|2513","CO-ALC-66440|2015|Ordinary election|2514"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-66440|2023|Ordinary election|2512","CO-ALC-66440|2019|Ordinary election|2513","CO-ALC-66440|2015|Ordinary election|2514"],"shares":[[0.25627895635210923,0.23140697390880274],[0.5362768200421679,0.2636735706312787],[0.4933943089430894,0.3168191056910569]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":42.81915769277303,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[13.667398195562058,13.399170933918557,0,14.277005608388198,0,2.7554255059741526,0,0,0,0,55.90099975615703],[53.627682004216794,9.872255984125015,0,0,26.36735706312787,0,0,0,0,0,10.132704948530323],[49.33943089430894,16.615853658536587,31.681910569105693,0,2.3628048780487805,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":66.3276408717826,"volatility_previous":38.425508243517264,"volatility_mean":52.37657455764993,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-66456","country":"Colombia","region":"Risaralda","name":"Mistrato","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.3472803347280333,2.1789657176060473,24.35491172476234],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-66456|2023|Ordinary election|2515","CO-ALC-66456|2019|Ordinary election|2516","CO-ALC-66456|2015|Ordinary election|2517"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-66456|2023|Ordinary election|2515","CO-ALC-66456|2019|Ordinary election|2516","CO-ALC-66456|2015|Ordinary election|2517"],"shares":[[0.4171421326233042,0.3836693292760238],[0.5108948285880303,0.48910517141196974],[0.48076052512449075,0.23721140787686734]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":74.51225455702566,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[41.71421326233042,11.639406618486117,8.279447191581083,0,0,0,0,38.366932927602384,0,0,0],[0,0,48.910517141196976,0,0,0,0,51.089482858803024,0,0,0],[16.085709974347367,0,0,0,0,0,23.721140787686736,48.076052512449074,12.117096725516825,0,0]],"volatility_latest":53.35361988081653,"volatility_previous":51.923947487550926,"volatility_mean":52.63878368418373,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-66572","country":"Colombia","region":"Risaralda","name":"Pueblo Rico","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.664178109585386,43.83413275568622,3.1215970961887507],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-66572|2023|Ordinary election|2518","CO-ALC-66572|2019|Ordinary election|2519","CO-ALC-66572|2015|Ordinary election|2520"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-66572|2023|Ordinary election|2518","CO-ALC-66572|2019|Ordinary election|2519","CO-ALC-66572|2015|Ordinary election|2520"],"shares":[[0.511931742434342,0.3252899613384882],[0.6886894630976328,0.25034813554077057],[0.33611615245009074,0.30490018148820325]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,32.52899613384882,0,0,0,0,0,51.19317424343421,0,0,16.277829622716972],[4.332353396255609,25.034813554077054,0,0.47965341172829956,0,1.2842333281757699,0,68.86894630976327,0,0,0],[18.330308529945555,33.61161524500908,17.568058076225046,0,0,0,0,30.490018148820326,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":23.772012202488742,"volatility_previous":40.142814900847014,"volatility_mean":31.957413551667877,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-66594","country":"Colombia","region":"Risaralda","name":"Quinchia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.8935839676868085,5.583477304853147,15.918007846905276],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-66594|2023|Ordinary election|2521","CO-ALC-66594|2019|Ordinary election|2522","CO-ALC-66594|2015|Ordinary election|2523"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-66594|2023|Ordinary election|2521","CO-ALC-66594|2019|Ordinary election|2522","CO-ALC-66594|2015|Ordinary election|2523"],"shares":[[0.42364455491688674,0.37470871524001864],[0.29841369561803044,0.24257892256949898],[0.4286171831211466,0.26943710465209386]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":68.98502821620721,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,11.760136709647352,0,0,0,88.23986329035264],[0,11.873723888801633,24.257892256949898,29.841369561803045,1.523480446049945,21.619286948327314,0,10.5151562745406,0,0,0.369090623527564],[0,0,0,26.943710465209385,3.947473776923693,0,0,24.605652974617662,0,0,44.50316278324926]],"volatility_latest":99.63090937647243,"volatility_previous":60.64856219067251,"volatility_mean":80.13973578357246,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-66682","country":"Colombia","region":"Risaralda","name":"Santa Rosa De Cabal","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.370736698499321,21.314492667577035,2.282635020586099],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-66682|2023|Ordinary election|2524","CO-ALC-66682|2019|Ordinary election|2525","CO-ALC-66682|2015|Ordinary election|2526"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-66682|2023|Ordinary election|2524","CO-ALC-66682|2019|Ordinary election|2525","CO-ALC-66682|2015|Ordinary election|2526"],"shares":[[0.34643587994542974,0.2527285129604365],[0.4181262245443211,0.20498129786855074],[0.49391499152337126,0.47108864131751027]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":38.77473339284343,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,15.762846748522055,0,0,0,84.23715325147795],[20.498129786855074,0,0,0,8.05082230006531,41.81262245443211,0,3.7701122127886957,0,0,25.868313245858815],[0,0,0,0,1.5984499878905305,0,47.10886413175103,1.9011867280213126,0,0,49.391499152337126]],"volatility_latest":74.13168675414119,"volatility_previous":70.63205003822934,"volatility_mean":72.38186839618527,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-66687","country":"Colombia","region":"Risaralda","name":"Santuario","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.426573426573427,11.207729468599034,9.907653779934257],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-66687|2023|Ordinary election|2527","CO-ALC-66687|2019|Ordinary election|2528","CO-ALC-66687|2015|Ordinary election|2529"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-66687|2023|Ordinary election|2527","CO-ALC-66687|2019|Ordinary election|2528","CO-ALC-66687|2015|Ordinary election|2529"],"shares":[[0.4458041958041958,0.36153846153846153],[0.4289855072463768,0.3169082125603865],[0.5323211770230083,0.4332446392236657]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":52.95485862741403,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[16.38111888111888,0,0,36.15384615384615,0,0,0,0,0,0,47.46503496503497],[31.690821256038646,0,42.89855072463768,12.979066022544284,12.431561996779388,0,0,0,0,0,0],[53.232117702300826,0,43.32446392236657,0,3.443418375332603,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":70.63981509633683,"volatility_previous":21.96720964399107,"volatility_mean":46.30351237016395,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68001","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Bucaramanga","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2025,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,21.16625610790292,36.45367111342864],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2025-12-14 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68001|CO-ALC-68001-2025-12-14-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6782","CO-ALC-68001|2023|Ordinary election|2530","CO-ALC-68001|2019|Ordinary election|2531"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68001|CO-ALC-68001-2025-12-14-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6782","CO-ALC-68001|2023|Ordinary election|2530","CO-ALC-68001|2019|Ordinary election|2531","CO-ALC-68001|2015|Ordinary election|2532"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.369171748172677,0.15750918709364778],[0.5119714943727458,0.1474347832384594]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,3.939802140818957,96.06019785918105]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68013","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Aguada","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.011456628477902,9.850993377483448,21.766561514195587],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68013|2023|Ordinary election|2533","CO-ALC-68013|2019|Ordinary election|2534","CO-ALC-68013|2015|Ordinary election|2535"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68013|2023|Ordinary election|2533","CO-ALC-68013|2019|Ordinary election|2534","CO-ALC-68013|2015|Ordinary election|2535"],"shares":[[0.41325695581014726,0.28314238952536824],[0.4470198675496689,0.3485099337748344],[0.6088328075709779,0.3911671924290221]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":35.30585929124334,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68020","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Albania","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[22.280517663518708,24.911032028469748,31.648822269807283],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68020|2023|Ordinary election|2536","CO-ALC-68020|2019|Ordinary election|2537","CO-ALC-68020|2015|Ordinary election|2538"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68020|2023|Ordinary election|2536","CO-ALC-68020|2019|Ordinary election|2537","CO-ALC-68020|2015|Ordinary election|2538"],"shares":[[0.6114025883175935,0.38859741168240647],[0.6132858837485172,0.36417556346381974],[0.6582441113490364,0.34175588865096357]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[38.859741168240646,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,61.140258831759354],[0,0,0.19770660340055357,36.41755634638197,61.32858837485172,2.0561486753657574,0,0,0,0,0],[0,0,0,34.17558886509636,0,0,0,0,0,0,65.82441113490364]],"volatility_latest":100.0,"volatility_previous":65.82441113490364,"volatility_mean":82.91220556745182,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68051","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Aratoca","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.359570346892056,1.6172506738544499,8.334991048338964],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68051|2023|Ordinary election|2539","CO-ALC-68051|2019|Ordinary election|2540","CO-ALC-68051|2015|Ordinary election|2541"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68051|2023|Ordinary election|2539","CO-ALC-68051|2019|Ordinary election|2540","CO-ALC-68051|2015|Ordinary election|2541"],"shares":[[0.3637964430357457,0.34020073956682517],[0.4549480169426261,0.4387755102040816],[0.5416749552416948,0.45832504475830516]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":86.32791742437267,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,2.764571227328755,0,0,0,97.23542877267124],[0,45.49480169426261,0.4620716211012707,43.87755102040816,8.355795148247978,0,0.07701193685021178,0,0,0,1.7327685791297651],null],"volatility_latest":98.19021948402002,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68077","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Barbosa","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.034289839379174,0.5464480874316955,19.180402632093298],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68077|2023|Ordinary election|2542","CO-ALC-68077|2019|Ordinary election|2543","CO-ALC-68077|2015|Ordinary election|2544"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68077|2023|Ordinary election|2542","CO-ALC-68077|2019|Ordinary election|2543","CO-ALC-68077|2015|Ordinary election|2544"],"shares":[[0.314443842868315,0.21410094447452327],[0.29483637256707806,0.2893718916927611],[0.4733858883314874,0.2815818620105544]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":59.48725703466828,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,3.513204596041629,0.048126090356734645,0,2.1837213499368344,0,94.2549479636648],null,[47.33858883314874,6.958108020066454,28.158186201055443,0,0,1.6613460160271027,0.2084826373053619,0,0,0,15.6752882923969]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68079","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Barichara","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[23.596980636691825,11.127348643006265,17.467345583351786],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68079|2023|Ordinary election|2545","CO-ALC-68079|2019|Ordinary election|2546","CO-ALC-68079|2015|Ordinary election|2547"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68079|2023|Ordinary election|2545","CO-ALC-68079|2019|Ordinary election|2546","CO-ALC-68079|2015|Ordinary election|2547"],"shares":[[0.6179849031834591,0.3820150968165409],[0.5146137787056367,0.4033402922755741],[0.587336727916759,0.41266327208324105]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":3.784362333739233,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[41.26632720832411,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,58.73367279167589]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68081","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Barrancabermeja","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[36.121669922112446,19.422232778261595,8.777565469432215],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68081|2023|Ordinary election|2548","CO-ALC-68081|2019|Ordinary election|2549","CO-ALC-68081|2015|Ordinary election|2550"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68081|2023|Ordinary election|2548","CO-ALC-68081|2019|Ordinary election|2549","CO-ALC-68081|2015|Ordinary election|2550"],"shares":[[0.5883549597594482,0.22713826053832376],[0.491022968182338,0.29680064039972204],[0.2900132000406155,0.20223754534629335]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,49.102296818233796,3.2530194670959456,0,47.64468371467026],[0,29.00132000406155,8.441564435582878,1.2858501103080318,0,2.2855454939861355,19.54436782882409,0,0.00738463810657879,0,39.43396748913074]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":60.558647872762684,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68092","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Betulia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[29.053448790683788,28.033866415804326,10.29968997588702],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68092|2023|Ordinary election|2551","CO-ALC-68092|2019|Ordinary election|2552","CO-ALC-68092|2015|Ordinary election|2553"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68092|2023|Ordinary election|2551","CO-ALC-68092|2019|Ordinary election|2552","CO-ALC-68092|2015|Ordinary election|2553"],"shares":[[0.5777844132576889,0.287249925350851],[0.5421762307933521,0.2618375666353089],[0.5514984498794351,0.4485015501205649]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.17915795759928338,0,0,99.82084204240071],null,[0,0,44.85015501205649,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,55.14984498794351]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68101","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Bolivar","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[23.050615595075243,6.060606060606062,23.011514614703277],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68101|2023|Ordinary election|2554","CO-ALC-68101|2019|Ordinary election|2555","CO-ALC-68101|2015|Ordinary election|2556"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68101|2023|Ordinary election|2554","CO-ALC-68101|2019|Ordinary election|2555","CO-ALC-68101|2015|Ordinary election|2556"],"shares":[[0.6152530779753762,0.3847469220246238],[0.4929059379926432,0.4322998773865826],[0.43932683790965454,0.20921169176262178]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":10.251486816513534,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[6.866351375021895,0,0,43.22998773865826,0,0,0,0,0,0.12261341741110528,49.781047468908746],[43.932683790965456,0,20.92116917626218,16.510186005314438,0,0,0,0,0,0,18.635961027457927]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":57.987501592205746,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68121","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Cabrera","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[21.079691516709516,3.120567375886523,4.567814476458182],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68121|2023|Ordinary election|2557","CO-ALC-68121|2019|Ordinary election|2558","CO-ALC-68121|2015|Ordinary election|2559"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68121|2023|Ordinary election|2557","CO-ALC-68121|2019|Ordinary election|2558","CO-ALC-68121|2015|Ordinary election|2559"],"shares":[[0.6053984575835476,0.3946015424164524],[0.5156028368794326,0.4843971631205674],[0.5228390723822909,0.4771609276177091]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":29.796167147812568,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,39.46015424164524,0,0,0,0,0,0,60.53984575835476],[48.43971631205674,0,0,0,51.56028368794326,0,0,0,0,0,0],[47.71609276177091,0,52.28390723822909,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":100.0,"volatility_previous":52.28390723822909,"volatility_mean":76.14195361911455,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68132","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"California","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.7301587301587347,6.041666666666671,18.763636363636365],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68132|2023|Ordinary election|2560","CO-ALC-68132|2019|Ordinary election|2561","CO-ALC-68132|2015|Ordinary election|2562"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68132|2023|Ordinary election|2560","CO-ALC-68132|2019|Ordinary election|2561","CO-ALC-68132|2015|Ordinary election|2562"],"shares":[[0.47555555555555556,0.44825396825396824],[0.49236111111111114,0.4319444444444444],[0.4610909090909091,0.27345454545454545]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":73.3652056277056,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,7.619047619047619,47.55555555555556,0,0,0,0,0,44.82539682539682],[0,0,0,0,43.19444444444444,0,7.569444444444445,0,0,0,49.236111111111114],[0,0,26.545454545454547,0,46.10909090909091,0,0,0,0,0,27.345454545454544]],"volatility_latest":11.980158730158735,"volatility_previous":29.460101010101013,"volatility_mean":20.720129870129874,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68147","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Capitanejo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.676812396236858,11.527293844367012,2.266009852216751],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68147|2023|Ordinary election|2563","CO-ALC-68147|2019|Ordinary election|2564","CO-ALC-68147|2015|Ordinary election|2565"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68147|2023|Ordinary election|2563","CO-ALC-68147|2019|Ordinary election|2564","CO-ALC-68147|2015|Ordinary election|2565"],"shares":[[0.41975650249031543,0.30298837852794686],[0.4343786295005807,0.31910569105691056],[0.3402298850574713,0.31756978653530377]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":46.54561711863053,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,27.725511898173767,0,0,0,0,72.27448810182624],[43.43786295005807,0,0,24.65156794425087,31.910569105691057,0,0,0,0,0,0],[26.502463054187192,7.717569786535304,0,0,31.75697865353038,0,0,0,0,0,34.02298850574713]],"volatility_latest":100.0,"volatility_previous":41.74055829228243,"volatility_mean":70.87027914614121,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68152","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Carcasi","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[24.88544236869933,12.530203658957547,9.540775930324628],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68152|2023|Ordinary election|2566","CO-ALC-68152|2019|Ordinary election|2567","CO-ALC-68152|2015|Ordinary election|2568"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68152|2023|Ordinary election|2566","CO-ALC-68152|2019|Ordinary election|2567","CO-ALC-68152|2015|Ordinary election|2568"],"shares":[[0.6200211491011632,0.3711667254141699],[0.5626510182947877,0.43734898170521225],[0.5328582739509106,0.43745051464766427]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":1.7779794403033788,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68160","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Cepita","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.83150756390193,11.304870715574268,30.19768234492161],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68160|2023|Ordinary election|2569","CO-ALC-68160|2019|Ordinary election|2570","CO-ALC-68160|2015|Ordinary election|2571"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68160|2023|Ordinary election|2569","CO-ALC-68160|2019|Ordinary election|2570","CO-ALC-68160|2015|Ordinary election|2571"],"shares":[[0.48304642670839854,0.29473135106937925],[0.5069152134696332,0.39386650631389053],[0.6509884117246081,0.34901158827539197]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":11.449330062471997,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,22.22222222222222,0,0,0,0,0,77.77777777777777],[0,0,0,0,1.0222489476849068,4.750450992182802,0,0,4.149128081779915,0,90.07817197835237],[0,65.09884117246081,34.9011588275392,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":21.199973274537317,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":60.59998663726866,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68162","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Cerrito","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.2496995914443652,1.684419123111219,47.38095238095238],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68162|2023|Ordinary election|2572","CO-ALC-68162|2019|Ordinary election|2573","CO-ALC-68162|2015|Ordinary election|2574"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68162|2023|Ordinary election|2572","CO-ALC-68162|2019|Ordinary election|2573","CO-ALC-68162|2015|Ordinary election|2574"],"shares":[[0.25907233838019705,0.2465753424657534],[0.4102055982164974,0.39336140698538524],[0.736904761904762,0.2630952380952381]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":70.03379635052389,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68167","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Charala","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.427823050058208,28.782742681047765,5.35508320975449],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68167|2023|Ordinary election|2575","CO-ALC-68167|2019|Ordinary election|2576","CO-ALC-68167|2015|Ordinary election|2577"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68167|2023|Ordinary election|2575","CO-ALC-68167|2019|Ordinary election|2576","CO-ALC-68167|2015|Ordinary election|2577"],"shares":[[0.4688591385331781,0.414580908032596],[0.5881355932203389,0.3003081664098613],[0.4310430054374691,0.3774921733399242]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":37.864875223376494,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,30.03081664098613,0,5.778120184899846,0,0,0,5.377503852080123,0,58.813559322033896],[17.960125226561214,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.1863568956994563,0,0,80.85351787773934]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":41.186440677966104,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68169","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Charta","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.056287851799077,25.906542056074763,39.836699613235936],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68169|2023|Ordinary election|2578","CO-ALC-68169|2019|Ordinary election|2579","CO-ALC-68169|2015|Ordinary election|2580"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68169|2023|Ordinary election|2578","CO-ALC-68169|2019|Ordinary election|2579","CO-ALC-68169|2015|Ordinary election|2580"],"shares":[[0.5244032775204845,0.46384039900249374],[0.6246728971962616,0.365607476635514],[0.6991834980661796,0.30081650193382037]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":23.052973553872658,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,1.175632347702173,0,0,0,98.82436765229784],[0,0,0,0,36.5607476635514,0,0,0,0.9719626168224299,0,62.467289719626166],[30.081650193382035,0,0,69.91834980661797,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":37.53271028037384,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":68.76635514018692,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68176","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Chima","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.099547511312224,28.273051451859395,16.333333333333332],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68176|2023|Ordinary election|2581","CO-ALC-68176|2019|Ordinary election|2582","CO-ALC-68176|2015|Ordinary election|2583"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68176|2023|Ordinary election|2581","CO-ALC-68176|2019|Ordinary election|2582","CO-ALC-68176|2015|Ordinary election|2583"],"shares":[[0.5904977375565611,0.4095022624434389],[0.619460010188487,0.336729495669893],[0.465,0.3016666666666667]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,33.6729495669893,0.3565970453387672,61.9460010188487,4.02445236882323,0,0,0,0,0,0],[0,46.5,30.166666666666668,20.11111111111111,0,0,0,0,0,0,3.2222222222222223]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":45.859342276560824,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68179","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Chipata","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.8588094525874936,1.8603232692894238,1.2442698100851288],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68179|2023|Ordinary election|2584","CO-ALC-68179|2019|Ordinary election|2585","CO-ALC-68179|2015|Ordinary election|2586"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68179|2023|Ordinary election|2584","CO-ALC-68179|2019|Ordinary election|2585","CO-ALC-68179|2015|Ordinary election|2586"],"shares":[[0.4944660484594675,0.4558779539335926],[0.5093016163464471,0.4906983836535529],[0.5062213490504256,0.49377865094957435]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":85.01095183326082,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,49.44660484594675,0,0,0,0,50.55339515405325],[0,0,0,0,0,0,49.06983836535529,0,0,0,50.93016163464471],[0,49.377865094957436,0,0,0,0,50.622134905042564,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":49.44660484594675,"volatility_previous":50.93016163464471,"volatility_mean":50.188383240295735,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68190","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Cimitarra","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.8509309906624694,10.865617433414045,10.436060754532086],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68190|2023|Ordinary election|2587","CO-ALC-68190|2019|Ordinary election|2588","CO-ALC-68190|2015|Ordinary election|2589"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68190|2023|Ordinary election|2587","CO-ALC-68190|2019|Ordinary election|2588","CO-ALC-68190|2015|Ordinary election|2589"],"shares":[[0.2939941433228355,0.27548483341621083],[0.40290556900726393,0.2942493946731235],[0.519904458598726,0.41554385105340524]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":72.93075050062548,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,2.015738498789346,23.208232445520583,0,0.7687651331719129,0,0,0,0,74.00726392251816],[0,41.55438510534052,51.99044585987261,0,5.934590886820186,0,0,0,0.520578147966683,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":97.98426150121065,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68207","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Concepcion","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2026,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,3.0725535760392475,2.939575394665212],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2026-04-19 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68207|CO-ALC-68207-2026-04-19-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6779","CO-ALC-68207|2023|Ordinary election|2590","CO-ALC-68207|2019|Ordinary election|2591"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68207|CO-ALC-68207-2026-04-19-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6779","CO-ALC-68207|2023|Ordinary election|2590","CO-ALC-68207|2019|Ordinary election|2591","CO-ALC-68207|2015|Ordinary election|2592"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.46630518977536795,0.43557965401497545],[0.3617310832879695,0.3323353293413174]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,1.7299251226439452,0,0,0,46.630518977536795,0,0,0,0,51.639555899819264],[0,0,25.204137180185086,3.511159499183451,0,1.8780620577027762,0,0,0,0,69.40664126292869]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":46.48238204247796,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68209","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Confines","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.526766595289075,42.281879194630875,0.5537098560354394],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68209|2023|Ordinary election|2593","CO-ALC-68209|2019|Ordinary election|2594","CO-ALC-68209|2015|Ordinary election|2595"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68209|2023|Ordinary election|2593","CO-ALC-68209|2019|Ordinary election|2594","CO-ALC-68209|2015|Ordinary election|2595"],"shares":[[0.4980728051391863,0.4728051391862955],[0.7114093959731543,0.2885906040268456],[0.4219269102990033,0.4163898117386489]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":28.72002649416875,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,49.80728051391863,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,50.19271948608137],null,[41.63898117386489,0,10.631229235880399,5.537098560354374,0,0,0,0,0,0,42.19269102990033]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68211","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Contratacion","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.148148148148145,5.506216696269981,7.194591984548531],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68211|2023|Ordinary election|2596","CO-ALC-68211|2019|Ordinary election|2597","CO-ALC-68211|2015|Ordinary election|2598"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68211|2023|Ordinary election|2596","CO-ALC-68211|2019|Ordinary election|2597","CO-ALC-68211|2015|Ordinary election|2598"],"shares":[[0.5241830065359477,0.44270152505446625],[0.48801065719360565,0.43294849023090587],[0.4065668759053597,0.3346209560598744]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":63.698934518876335,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.4793028322440087,1.5250544662309369,0,0,0,44.270152505446625,0,0,0,0,53.72549019607843],[48.801065719360565,0,0,0,0,7.904085257548846,0,0,0,0,43.294849023090585],[33.46209560598744,0,19.0246257846451,4.925156929019797,0.9657170449058425,0.9657170449058425,0,0,0,0,40.656687590535974]],"volatility_latest":48.32176288711656,"volatility_previous":24.91549975857074,"volatility_mean":36.618631322843655,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68217","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Coromoro","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.306497987349047,37.610619469026545,16.846986089644517],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68217|2023|Ordinary election|2599","CO-ALC-68217|2019|Ordinary election|2600","CO-ALC-68217|2015|Ordinary election|2601"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68217|2023|Ordinary election|2599","CO-ALC-68217|2019|Ordinary election|2600","CO-ALC-68217|2015|Ordinary election|2601"],"shares":[[0.38757906843013223,0.3545140885566418],[0.6880530973451328,0.3119469026548673],[0.5842349304482226,0.4157650695517774]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":25.24108378959078,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,38.757906843013224,7.446808510638298,35.45140885566418,0,0,0,0,0,18.3438757906843],[0,0,31.194690265486727,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,68.80530973451327],null],"volatility_latest":50.46143394382897,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68229","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Curiti","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[19.274321198100573,6.949222512728774,0.9325458501709605],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68229|2023|Ordinary election|2602","CO-ALC-68229|2019|Ordinary election|2603","CO-ALC-68229|2015|Ordinary election|2604"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68229|2023|Ordinary election|2602","CO-ALC-68229|2019|Ordinary election|2603","CO-ALC-68229|2015|Ordinary election|2604"],"shares":[[0.5611834895896749,0.36844027760866915],[0.5079124810788496,0.43842025595156187],[0.3405346596207647,0.33120920111905505]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":31.28692971151964,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,33.120920111905505,34.053465962076466,0,0,0,0.09325458501709667,0.0777121541809139,0,0,32.65464718682002]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68235","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"El Carmen","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[23.70192307692308,7.830499177180471,4.456706281833618],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68235|2023|Ordinary election|2605","CO-ALC-68235|2019|Ordinary election|2606","CO-ALC-68235|2015|Ordinary election|2607"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68235|2023|Ordinary election|2605","CO-ALC-68235|2019|Ordinary election|2606","CO-ALC-68235|2015|Ordinary election|2607"],"shares":[[0.5163461538461539,0.2793269230769231],[0.493828853538124,0.4155238617663193],[0.5207979626485568,0.4762308998302207]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":14.920128862543237,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.9495192307692307,0.09615384615384616,27.932692307692307,0,51.63461538461539,0,0,0,0,0,19.38701923076923],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2.413603949533736,0,0,97.58639605046626],[0,0,52.07979626485569,0,0.21222410865874364,0,0,0,0,0,47.70797962648557]],"volatility_latest":80.61298076923077,"volatility_previous":52.29202037351443,"volatility_mean":66.45250057137261,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68245","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"El Guacamayo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.10510510510511,15.011727912431589,31.898066783831283],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68245|2023|Ordinary election|2608","CO-ALC-68245|2019|Ordinary election|2609","CO-ALC-68245|2015|Ordinary election|2610"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68245|2023|Ordinary election|2608","CO-ALC-68245|2019|Ordinary election|2609","CO-ALC-68245|2015|Ordinary election|2610"],"shares":[[0.5255255255255256,0.47447447447447444],[0.43627834245504304,0.28616106333072716],[0.609841827768014,0.29086115992970124]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":46.21805942412165,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,28.616106333072715,0,0,0,0,0,71.38389366692729],[9.92970123022847,0,60.984182776801404,29.08611599297012,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68250","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"El Peñon","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[30.562579013906443,5.5,15.756630265210603],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68250|2023|Ordinary election|2611","CO-ALC-68250|2019|Ordinary election|2612","CO-ALC-68250|2015|Ordinary election|2613"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68250|2023|Ordinary election|2611","CO-ALC-68250|2019|Ordinary election|2612","CO-ALC-68250|2015|Ordinary election|2613"],"shares":[[0.6479140328697851,0.3422882427307206],[0.527,0.47200000000000003],[0.5787831513260531,0.421216848673947]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0.9797724399494311,0,0,0,99.02022756005057],[0,0.1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,99.9],[42.1216848673947,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,57.8783151326053]],"volatility_latest":0.9797724399494326,"volatility_previous":42.1216848673947,"volatility_mean":21.550728653672067,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68255","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"El Playon","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.9726368159203957,3.780207911435131,11.251616611582122],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68255|2023|Ordinary election|2614","CO-ALC-68255|2019|Ordinary election|2615","CO-ALC-68255|2015|Ordinary election|2616"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68255|2023|Ordinary election|2614","CO-ALC-68255|2019|Ordinary election|2615","CO-ALC-68255|2015|Ordinary election|2616"],"shares":[[0.42437810945273635,0.39465174129353237],[0.33846361549885245,0.30066153638450116],[0.45006466446328497,0.33754849834746375]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":79.78596937929505,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[30.066153638450114,0,0,3.3751856352099368,0,0,3.685702713649251,0,0.25651410827595517,0,62.61644390441474],[0,0,12.573645638741198,0,0,0,7.22805000718494,0.244287972409829,1.192700100589165,0,78.76131628107487]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":33.441339273660056,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68264","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Encino","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[25.266524520255864,17.608695652173907,10.046728971962622],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68264|2023|Ordinary election|2617","CO-ALC-68264|2019|Ordinary election|2618","CO-ALC-68264|2015|Ordinary election|2619"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68264|2023|Ordinary election|2617","CO-ALC-68264|2019|Ordinary election|2618","CO-ALC-68264|2015|Ordinary election|2619"],"shares":[[0.5698294243070362,0.3171641791044776],[0.5880434782608696,0.41195652173913044],[0.5502336448598131,0.44976635514018687]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,44.97663551401869,55.02336448598131,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68266","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Enciso","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.13559322033899,5.669348939283104,5.198019801980202],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68266|2023|Ordinary election|2620","CO-ALC-68266|2019|Ordinary election|2621","CO-ALC-68266|2015|Ordinary election|2622"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68266|2023|Ordinary election|2620","CO-ALC-68266|2019|Ordinary election|2621","CO-ALC-68266|2015|Ordinary election|2622"],"shares":[[0.600677966101695,0.39932203389830506],[0.4337966349670812,0.3771031455742502],[0.4232673267326733,0.3712871287128713]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":28.49018702906827,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,37.12871287128713,0,0.12376237623762376,12.334983498349835,0,8.085808580858085,0,0,0,42.32673267326733]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68271","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Florian","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.326086956521742,31.725146198830412,4.003202562049644],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68271|2023|Ordinary election|2623","CO-ALC-68271|2019|Ordinary election|2624","CO-ALC-68271|2015|Ordinary election|2625"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68271|2023|Ordinary election|2623","CO-ALC-68271|2019|Ordinary election|2624","CO-ALC-68271|2015|Ordinary election|2625"],"shares":[[0.49086956521739133,0.4776086956521739],[0.5531189083820663,0.23586744639376217],[0.5049372831598613,0.4649052575393648]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":46.43241855116433,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,21.101364522417153,0,0,0,78.89863547758284],[0,3.0157459300773954,46.49052575393648,50.493728315986125,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68276","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Floridablanca","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.88599800891804,8.656747841953823,13.80747235575619],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68276|2023|Ordinary election|2626","CO-ALC-68276|2019|Ordinary election|2627","CO-ALC-68276|2015|Ordinary election|2628"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68276|2023|Ordinary election|2626","CO-ALC-68276|2019|Ordinary election|2627","CO-ALC-68276|2015|Ordinary election|2628"],"shares":[[0.45470288539566484,0.2658429053064844],[0.35371780475822867,0.26715032633869046],[0.5608607424609073,0.4227860189033455]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":23.453148032437056,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,3.6149013243204804,2.7791488542912837,0,0,0,0,93.60594982138824],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.0439329075724613,9.266439750157906,89.68962734226963],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.6353238635747074,98.36467613642529]],"volatility_latest":10.310372657730369,"volatility_previous":8.675048794155659,"volatility_mean":9.492710725943013,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68296","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Galan","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.75,4.574811625403662,0.6912442396313381],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68296|2023|Ordinary election|2629","CO-ALC-68296|2019|Ordinary election|2630","CO-ALC-68296|2015|Ordinary election|2631"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68296|2023|Ordinary election|2629","CO-ALC-68296|2019|Ordinary election|2630","CO-ALC-68296|2015|Ordinary election|2631"],"shares":[[0.5067307692307692,0.4192307692307692],[0.5209903121636168,0.47524219590958017],[0.3381336405529954,0.331221198156682]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":66.54216044207884,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0.6730769230769231,0,0,0,0.09615384615384616,0,0,0,0,99.23076923076923],[0,0.3767491926803014,0,0,52.09903121636168,47.52421959095802,0,0,0,0,0],[0,0,33.1221198156682,17.972350230414747,15.09216589861751,0,0,0,0,0,33.81336405529954]],"volatility_latest":99.52709696116585,"volatility_previous":84.90783410138249,"volatility_mean":92.21746553127417,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68298","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Gambita","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.354469060351413,36.46269907795474,21.64242942686056],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68298|2023|Ordinary election|2632","CO-ALC-68298|2019|Ordinary election|2633","CO-ALC-68298|2015|Ordinary election|2634"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68298|2023|Ordinary election|2632","CO-ALC-68298|2019|Ordinary election|2633","CO-ALC-68298|2015|Ordinary election|2634"],"shares":[[0.3854087089381207,0.34186401833460656],[0.6659681475272423,0.3013411567476949],[0.6082121471343028,0.39178785286569723]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":21.421329488583375,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,8.6707410236822,34.18640183346066,38.54087089381207,1.6042780748663101,0,0,0,0,16.99770817417876],null,[0,0,60.82121471343028,0,0,0,39.17878528656972,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68307","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Giron","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2026,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,5.418226189007257,59.50964585533997],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2026-01-18 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68307|CO-ALC-68307-2026-01-18-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6781","CO-ALC-68307|2023|Ordinary election|2635","CO-ALC-68307|2019|Ordinary election|2636"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68307|CO-ALC-68307-2026-01-18-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6781","CO-ALC-68307|2023|Ordinary election|2635","CO-ALC-68307|2019|Ordinary election|2636","CO-ALC-68307|2015|Ordinary election|2637"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.4849120497950342,0.43072978790496164],[0.7377689442375049,0.14267248568410518]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68318","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Guaca","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.4303567371052,8.299155609167673,2.1887824897400776],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68318|2023|Ordinary election|2638","CO-ALC-68318|2019|Ordinary election|2639","CO-ALC-68318|2015|Ordinary election|2640"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68318|2023|Ordinary election|2638","CO-ALC-68318|2019|Ordinary election|2639","CO-ALC-68318|2015|Ordinary election|2640"],"shares":[[0.532151783685526,0.467848216314474],[0.39203860072376356,0.3090470446320868],[0.33515731874145005,0.3132694938440493]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":67.16580513006285,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,30.904704463208684,0,0,39.20386007237636,0,0,0,0,0,29.891435464414958],[29.79480164158687,33.515731874145004,4.131326949384405,31.326949384404926,0,0,0,0,0,1.231190150478796,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":69.09529553679131,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68320","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Guadalupe","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.513761467889907,16.368206094879042,24.291374580920447],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68320|2023|Ordinary election|2641","CO-ALC-68320|2019|Ordinary election|2642","CO-ALC-68320|2015|Ordinary election|2643"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68320|2023|Ordinary election|2641","CO-ALC-68320|2019|Ordinary election|2642","CO-ALC-68320|2015|Ordinary election|2643"],"shares":[[0.43608562691131497,0.2709480122324159],[0.5708451146716933,0.40716305372290296],[0.6214568729046023,0.3785431270953978]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":13.760719163551494,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,27.09480122324159,0,0,8.073394495412844,0,0,0,0,64.83180428134555],[0,0,0,0,0,0,2.199183160540371,0,0,0,97.80081683945963],[0,0,37.85431270953978,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,62.14568729046022]],"volatility_latest":35.16819571865444,"volatility_previous":37.85431270953978,"volatility_mean":36.51125421409711,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68322","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Guapota","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.710557532621593,15.692711753118843,23.368421052631582],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68322|2023|Ordinary election|2644","CO-ALC-68322|2019|Ordinary election|2645","CO-ALC-68322|2015|Ordinary election|2646"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68322|2023|Ordinary election|2644","CO-ALC-68322|2019|Ordinary election|2645","CO-ALC-68322|2015|Ordinary election|2646"],"shares":[[0.538552787663108,0.461447212336892],[0.5784635587655942,0.4215364412344058],[0.607719298245614,0.3740350877192982]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":41.64504924614116,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,60.771929824561404,37.40350877192982,0,1.8245614035087718,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68324","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Guavata","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.063860667634252,8.338092518560828,24.21052631578948],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68324|2023|Ordinary election|2647","CO-ALC-68324|2019|Ordinary election|2648","CO-ALC-68324|2015|Ordinary election|2649"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68324|2023|Ordinary election|2647","CO-ALC-68324|2019|Ordinary election|2648","CO-ALC-68324|2015|Ordinary election|2649"],"shares":[[0.40029027576197385,0.35965166908563134],[0.5416904625928042,0.4583095374071959],[0.6210526315789474,0.3789473684210526]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":63.19601606136127,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,0,37.89473684210526,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,62.10526315789474]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68327","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Guepsa","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.9695121951219505,10.983229200920753,3.5270406449445773],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68327|2023|Ordinary election|2650","CO-ALC-68327|2019|Ordinary election|2651","CO-ALC-68327|2015|Ordinary election|2652"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68327|2023|Ordinary election|2650","CO-ALC-68327|2019|Ordinary election|2651","CO-ALC-68327|2015|Ordinary election|2652"],"shares":[[0.3396341463414634,0.2899390243902439],[0.4968760276224926,0.3870437356132851],[0.5176352032247229,0.4823647967752771]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":66.85309929078073,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,33.96341463414634,11.310975609756097,24.146341463414632,0,0,0,0,30.579268292682926],[0,0,0,0,0,38.70437356132851,0,0,0,0,61.29562643867149],[0,51.76352032247229,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,48.23647967752771]],"volatility_latest":45.27439024390244,"volatility_previous":51.76352032247229,"volatility_mean":48.51895528318737,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68344","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Hato","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.406480955088114,6.340819022457069,21.604503870513724],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68344|2023|Ordinary election|2653","CO-ALC-68344|2019|Ordinary election|2654","CO-ALC-68344|2015|Ordinary election|2655"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68344|2023|Ordinary election|2653","CO-ALC-68344|2019|Ordinary election|2654","CO-ALC-68344|2015|Ordinary election|2655"],"shares":[[0.5770324047754406,0.42296759522455946],[0.523778071334214,0.4603698811096433],[0.6009852216748769,0.38494018296973964]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":33.46707666579321,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,57.70324047754406,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,42.29675952245594],[0,0,0,46.03698811096433,0,0,0,0,0,0,53.96301188903566],[0,60.09852216748769,0,38.49401829697396,1.4074595355383532,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":57.70324047754406,"volatility_previous":61.50598170302604,"volatility_mean":59.60461109028505,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68368","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Jesus Maria","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[28.0,5.562224889955978,11.865864144453994],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68368|2023|Ordinary election|2656","CO-ALC-68368|2019|Ordinary election|2657","CO-ALC-68368|2015|Ordinary election|2658"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68368|2023|Ordinary election|2656","CO-ALC-68368|2019|Ordinary election|2657","CO-ALC-68368|2015|Ordinary election|2658"],"shares":[[0.5768627450980393,0.2968627450980392],[0.37454981992797115,0.3189275710284114],[0.5593293207222699,0.44067067927773]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":1.7237305928390234,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[57.68627450980392,0,0,0,2.588235294117647,29.686274509803923,0,0,0,0,10.03921568627451],[0,0,0.2000800320128051,37.454981992797116,0,30.45218087234894,0,0,0,0,31.892757102841138],[44.067067927773,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,55.932932072227]],"volatility_latest":60.27450980392157,"volatility_previous":68.10724289715886,"volatility_mean":64.19087635054021,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68370","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Jordan","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.980392156862745,18.94736842105263,2.2774327122153153],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68370|2023|Ordinary election|2659","CO-ALC-68370|2019|Ordinary election|2660","CO-ALC-68370|2015|Ordinary election|2661"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68370|2023|Ordinary election|2659","CO-ALC-68370|2019|Ordinary election|2660","CO-ALC-68370|2015|Ordinary election|2661"],"shares":[[0.4619607843137255,0.312156862745098],[0.593859649122807,0.4043859649122807],[0.5113871635610766,0.48861283643892345]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":25.499054541725165,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[31.215686274509803,0,46.19607843137255,22.58823529411765,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[0,0.17543859649122806,59.3859649122807,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,40.43859649122807],[48.86128364389234,0,51.13871635610766,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":53.80392156862745,"volatility_previous":48.86128364389234,"volatility_mean":51.3326026062599,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68377","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"La Belleza","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.086375566690528,36.97538100820634,3.2225063938618916],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68377|2023|Ordinary election|2662","CO-ALC-68377|2019|Ordinary election|2663","CO-ALC-68377|2015|Ordinary election|2664"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68377|2023|Ordinary election|2662","CO-ALC-68377|2019|Ordinary election|2663","CO-ALC-68377|2015|Ordinary election|2664"],"shares":[[0.4762586494869959,0.29539489382009065],[0.6848769050410317,0.31512309495896834],[0.5161125319693095,0.48388746803069055]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68385","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Landazuri","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.952522255192882,15.422814982973897,7.13604577240941],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68385|2023|Ordinary election|2665","CO-ALC-68385|2019|Ordinary election|2666","CO-ALC-68385|2015|Ordinary election|2667"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68385|2023|Ordinary election|2665","CO-ALC-68385|2019|Ordinary election|2666","CO-ALC-68385|2015|Ordinary election|2667"],"shares":[[0.5530078230374966,0.3734826004855678],[0.48836549375709426,0.3341373439273553],[0.3231087094723458,0.2517482517482517]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":19.4401878737558,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,5.179390342595091,0,0,0,0,94.82060965740492],[2.6106696935300793,0,0,15.13904653802497,0,0,0,0,0,0,82.25028376844494],[0,32.310870947234584,0,0,0,11.82453909726637,25.174825174825173,0,0,0,30.689764780673872]],"volatility_latest":17.749716231555055,"volatility_previous":69.31023521932613,"volatility_mean":43.52997572544059,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68397","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"La Paz","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.613541999361225,7.240573907240574,21.661721068249264],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68397|2023|Ordinary election|2668","CO-ALC-68397|2019|Ordinary election|2669","CO-ALC-68397|2015|Ordinary election|2670"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68397|2023|Ordinary election|2668","CO-ALC-68397|2019|Ordinary election|2669","CO-ALC-68397|2015|Ordinary election|2670"],"shares":[[0.5190035132545513,0.422868093260939],[0.4781448114781448,0.4057390724057391],[0.6083086053412463,0.3916913946587537]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":49.46765260693085,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[2.2037687639731716,0,0,0,0,0,3.6090705844778026,0,0,0,94.18716065154902],[0,0,0,0,0,0,11.611611611611611,0,0,0,88.38838838838839],null],"volatility_latest":8.002541027133805,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68406","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Lebrija","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[25.126179504059685,21.25210428135948,1.8917122552277732],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68406|2023|Ordinary election|2671","CO-ALC-68406|2019|Ordinary election|2672","CO-ALC-68406|2015|Ordinary election|2673"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68406|2023|Ordinary election|2671","CO-ALC-68406|2019|Ordinary election|2672","CO-ALC-68406|2015|Ordinary election|2673"],"shares":[[0.4911125740618828,0.23985077902128593],[0.4802311297147277,0.2677100869011329],[0.31044531929035224,0.2915281967380745]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.2413868773315778,0,99.75861312266842],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,25.20587833841394,74.79412166158606],[0,0,0,0,0,19.67892019019377,0,0,0,0,80.32107980980622]],"volatility_latest":25.20587833841394,"volatility_previous":25.205878338413935,"volatility_mean":25.20587833841394,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68418","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Los Santos","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.57640332640333,40.04593081670734,7.408545957577619],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68418|2023|Ordinary election|2674","CO-ALC-68418|2019|Ordinary election|2675","CO-ALC-68418|2015|Ordinary election|2676"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68418|2023|Ordinary election|2674","CO-ALC-68418|2019|Ordinary election|2675","CO-ALC-68418|2015|Ordinary election|2676"],"shares":[[0.4446465696465697,0.34888253638253636],[0.6500645902109947,0.24960528204392132],[0.3407623731939748,0.26667691361819856]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":7.497620816940187,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,4.191187024544281,0,0,0,0,5.841825749964117,89.96698722549161],[0,34.07623731939748,0,0,0,0,21.641561635413463,0,0,0,44.282201045189055]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":55.717798954810945,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68425","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Macaravita","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.9365250134480902,2.5798525798525773,21.256684491978604],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68425|2023|Ordinary election|2677","CO-ALC-68425|2019|Ordinary election|2678","CO-ALC-68425|2015|Ordinary election|2679"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68425|2023|Ordinary election|2677","CO-ALC-68425|2019|Ordinary election|2678","CO-ALC-68425|2015|Ordinary election|2679"],"shares":[[0.4308768154922001,0.41151156535771916],[0.394963144963145,0.3691646191646192],[0.606283422459893,0.39371657754010697]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":79.69230384388756,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0.591715976331361,8.768154922001075,0,0,0,90.64012910166755],[36.91646191646192,0,0,39.4963144963145,23.587223587223587,0,0,0,0,0,0],[60.6283422459893,0,0,0,0,0,39.3716577540107,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":100.0,"volatility_previous":63.08353808353808,"volatility_mean":81.54176904176904,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68432","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Malaga","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.09860745201355,16.7479674796748,5.356235389775385],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68432|2023|Ordinary election|2680","CO-ALC-68432|2019|Ordinary election|2681","CO-ALC-68432|2015|Ordinary election|2682"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68432|2023|Ordinary election|2680","CO-ALC-68432|2019|Ordinary election|2681","CO-ALC-68432|2015|Ordinary election|2682"],"shares":[[0.4049680090327437,0.3139819345126082],[0.5284552845528455,0.36097560975609755],[0.4375444659010062,0.38398211200325233]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":44.90410872955947,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,21.28340233345879,0,0,0,0,0,78.7165976665412],null,[0,0,0,0,0.15245451773554222,0,11.891452383372293,0,5.5290171765423315,0,82.42707592234983]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68444","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Matanza","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.1038251366120235,10.223478037503213,30.913091309130916],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68444|2023|Ordinary election|2683","CO-ALC-68444|2019|Ordinary election|2684","CO-ALC-68444|2015|Ordinary election|2685"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68444|2023|Ordinary election|2683","CO-ALC-68444|2019|Ordinary election|2684","CO-ALC-68444|2015|Ordinary election|2685"],"shares":[[0.5058208600617724,0.43478260869565216],[0.48086308759311586,0.3786283072180837],[0.5074257425742574,0.19829482948294827]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":47.89676187934365,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,1.4898535833547393,0,0,0.10274852298998202,0,98.40739789365529],[0,0,9.845984598459847,0,0,19.829482948294828,0,0,0,0,70.32453245324533]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":28.185613963399938,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68464","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Mogotes","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.8128704487722267,26.513452914798208,5.1123930773821336],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68464|2023|Ordinary election|2686","CO-ALC-68464|2019|Ordinary election|2687","CO-ALC-68464|2015|Ordinary election|2688"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68464|2023|Ordinary election|2686","CO-ALC-68464|2019|Ordinary election|2687","CO-ALC-68464|2015|Ordinary election|2688"],"shares":[[0.23657917019475022,0.22845046570702796],[0.5440956651718983,0.2789611360239163],[0.3624428088323055,0.3113188780584842]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":55.23501274279494,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,23.657917019475022,0,4.182895850973751,0,0,0,72.15918712955123],[0,0,0,0,0,27.89611360239163,0,0,0,0,72.10388639760838],[36.24428088323055,0,31.131887805848418,20.171076188581658,0,0,0,0,0,0,12.452755122339367]],"volatility_latest":27.896113602391626,"volatility_previous":87.54724487766063,"volatility_mean":57.72167924002613,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68468","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Molagavita","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.15281173594132014,20.27164685908319,3.0962034647991103],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68468|2023|Ordinary election|2689","CO-ALC-68468|2019|Ordinary election|2690","CO-ALC-68468|2015|Ordinary election|2691"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68468|2023|Ordinary election|2689","CO-ALC-68468|2019|Ordinary election|2690","CO-ALC-68468|2015|Ordinary election|2691"],"shares":[[0.44376528117359415,0.44223716381418093],[0.5928692699490662,0.3901528013582343],[0.4791743457427202,0.44821231109472914]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":67.5859927711517,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[44.37652811735941,0,0,44.22371638141809,2.1699266503667483,0,0,0,0,0,9.229828850855746],[59.28692699490662,0,0,0,39.01528013582343,0.44142614601018676,0,0,0,1.2563667232597624,0],[44.82123110947291,0,0,7.003317360855142,0.2580169553999263,0,0,0,0,0,47.91743457427202]],"volatility_latest":53.45354523227384,"volatility_previous":54.920751935127164,"volatility_mean":54.187148583700505,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68498","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Ocamonte","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[28.536285362853633,12.075105212042729,62.63121063680896],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68498|2023|Ordinary election|2692","CO-ALC-68498|2019|Ordinary election|2693","CO-ALC-68498|2015|Ordinary election|2694"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68498|2023|Ordinary election|2692","CO-ALC-68498|2019|Ordinary election|2693","CO-ALC-68498|2015|Ordinary election|2694"],"shares":[[0.6150061500615006,0.3296432964329643],[0.47134995144059566,0.35059889932016836],[0.8131560531840448,0.1868439468159552]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,35.05988993201684,0,0,0,0,64.94011006798317],null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68500","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Oiba","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2025,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,0.8698053292834516,10.359344459479772],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2025-05-18 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68500|CO-ALC-68500-2025-05-18-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6790","CO-ALC-68500|2023|Ordinary election|2695","CO-ALC-68500|2019|Ordinary election|2696"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68500|CO-ALC-68500-2025-05-18-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6790","CO-ALC-68500|2023|Ordinary election|2695","CO-ALC-68500|2019|Ordinary election|2696","CO-ALC-68500|2015|Ordinary election|2697"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.5043490266464172,0.49565097335358277],[0.5517967222973988,0.44820327770260115]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68502","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Onzaga","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[49.198717948717956,11.332082551594745,12.878482034719418],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68502|2023|Ordinary election|2698","CO-ALC-68502|2019|Ordinary election|2699","CO-ALC-68502|2015|Ordinary election|2700"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68502|2023|Ordinary election|2698","CO-ALC-68502|2019|Ordinary election|2699","CO-ALC-68502|2015|Ordinary election|2700"],"shares":[[0.7459935897435898,0.25400641025641024],[0.4720450281425891,0.3587242026266416],[0.36293903916027453,0.23415421881308035]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,25.400641025641026,0,0,0,0,0,0,74.59935897435898],null,[23.173193379087607,0,36.29390391602745,17.07710940654017,0.04037141703673799,0,0,0,0,0,23.415421881308035]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68522","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Palmar","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[43.839758125472414,12.292358803986708,4.501323918799642],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68522|2023|Ordinary election|2701","CO-ALC-68522|2019|Ordinary election|2702","CO-ALC-68522|2015|Ordinary election|2703"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68522|2023|Ordinary election|2701","CO-ALC-68522|2019|Ordinary election|2702","CO-ALC-68522|2015|Ordinary election|2703"],"shares":[[0.656084656084656,0.21768707482993196],[0.5191029900332226,0.3961794019933555],[0.5225066195939982,0.4774933804060018]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,21.768707482993197,0,0,0,0,0,78.2312925170068],[0,39.61794019933555,0,0,0,8.471760797342192,0,0,0,0,51.91029900332226],[0,0,47.74933804060018,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.25066195939982]],"volatility_latest":48.08970099667774,"volatility_previous":48.08970099667774,"volatility_mean":48.08970099667774,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68524","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Palmas Del Socorro","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[22.443313280888475,14.09214092140921,11.703958691910493],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68524|2023|Ordinary election|2704","CO-ALC-68524|2019|Ordinary election|2705","CO-ALC-68524|2015|Ordinary election|2706"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68524|2023|Ordinary election|2704","CO-ALC-68524|2019|Ordinary election|2705","CO-ALC-68524|2015|Ordinary election|2706"],"shares":[[0.6122165664044423,0.3877834335955576],[0.4867208672086721,0.34579945799457995],[0.4968445209409065,0.3798049340218015]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":5.679869429265505,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[49.684452094090645,0,12.335054503729202,0,0,0,37.98049340218015,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68533","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Paramo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.106914407554065,2.8445006321112487,14.181818181818187],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68533|2023|Ordinary election|2707","CO-ALC-68533|2019|Ordinary election|2708","CO-ALC-68533|2015|Ordinary election|2709"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68533|2023|Ordinary election|2707","CO-ALC-68533|2019|Ordinary election|2708","CO-ALC-68533|2015|Ordinary election|2709"],"shares":[[0.4057264696923546,0.3746573256168139],[0.5142225031605563,0.48577749683944377],[0.5709090909090909,0.4290909090909091]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":79.32159673826183,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68547","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Piedecuesta","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.789014555966936,12.23827000765717,25.612619664037567],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68547|2023|Ordinary election|2710","CO-ALC-68547|2019|Ordinary election|2711","CO-ALC-68547|2015|Ordinary election|2712"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68547|2023|Ordinary election|2710","CO-ALC-68547|2019|Ordinary election|2711","CO-ALC-68547|2015|Ordinary election|2712"],"shares":[[0.35479535426281894,0.3069052087031496],[0.45195785916087977,0.32957515908430807],[0.6280630983201878,0.3719369016798122]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":54.469241488594655,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,13.839580057818127,0,0,1.4581325759496881,7.54805497793782,0,0,0,77.15423238829436],[0,0,0,0,0,5.770601747947087,0,0,0,0,94.22939825205292],[0,0,37.19369016798122,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,62.80630983201878]],"volatility_latest":21.387635035755952,"volatility_previous":37.19369016798122,"volatility_mean":29.290662601868583,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68549","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Pinchote","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.042051893826425,4.729729729729726,12.307692307692307],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68549|2023|Ordinary election|2713","CO-ALC-68549|2019|Ordinary election|2714","CO-ALC-68549|2015|Ordinary election|2715"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68549|2023|Ordinary election|2713","CO-ALC-68549|2019|Ordinary election|2714","CO-ALC-68549|2015|Ordinary election|2715"],"shares":[[0.506710408589323,0.4762898896510588],[0.5236486486486487,0.47635135135135137],[0.522672064777328,0.39959514170040483]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":77.62540357007998,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,39.959514170040485,52.26720647773279,0,0,7.77327935222672,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68572","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Puente Nacional","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.428663653970304,4.7905633124699065,23.871906841339154],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68572|2023|Ordinary election|2716","CO-ALC-68572|2019|Ordinary election|2717","CO-ALC-68572|2015|Ordinary election|2718"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68572|2023|Ordinary election|2716","CO-ALC-68572|2019|Ordinary election|2717","CO-ALC-68572|2015|Ordinary election|2718"],"shares":[[0.5631590273294599,0.4188723907897568],[0.408521906596052,0.36061627347135294],[0.46130519165453665,0.2225861232411451]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":37.592210648714655,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,9.412614347616755,10.953298025999038,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,79.6340876263842],[46.13051916545366,12.857836001940806,8.369723435225618,22.25861232411451,1.2736535662299855,6.7685589519650655,0,0.2668607472100922,2.074235807860262,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":82.21766221715762,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68573","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Puerto Parra","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.1374045801526727,4.767911200807262,3.4333525678014993],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68573|2023|Ordinary election|2719","CO-ALC-68573|2019|Ordinary election|2720","CO-ALC-68573|2015|Ordinary election|2721"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68573|2023|Ordinary election|2719","CO-ALC-68573|2019|Ordinary election|2720","CO-ALC-68573|2015|Ordinary election|2721"],"shares":[[0.23838604143947656,0.21701199563794982],[0.4808274470232089,0.4331483350151363],[0.39036353144835545,0.35603000577034044]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":84.71924317443033,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,21.701199563794983,0,0,3.8822246455834244,0,0,0,0,0,74.41657579062158],[0,0,48.08274470232089,0,0.07568113017154389,0,0,0,0,0,51.841574167507574],[0,25.36064627813041,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,74.63935372186958]],"volatility_latest":48.08274470232088,"volatility_previous":48.158425832492426,"volatility_mean":48.12058526740665,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68575","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Puerto Wilches","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.984739922332217,11.020816403075575,11.736224768139664],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68575|2023|Ordinary election|2722","CO-ALC-68575|2019|Ordinary election|2723","CO-ALC-68575|2015|Ordinary election|2724"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68575|2023|Ordinary election|2722","CO-ALC-68575|2019|Ordinary election|2723","CO-ALC-68575|2015|Ordinary election|2724"],"shares":[[0.4997538697150358,0.36990647049171366],[0.37744577108207783,0.2672376070513221],[0.44455810147299507,0.32719585379159843]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":38.64644324432016,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,49.97538697150358,0,0,0,0.7712082262210797,0,0,0,0,49.253404802275334],[0,37.744577108207785,0,0,0,0,0,0,3.5631680940176285,14.202662999312372,44.48959179846221],[0,0,44.45581014729951,0,0,0,4.555373704309875,0,0,0,50.98881614839061]],"volatility_latest":17.76583109333,"volatility_previous":55.510408201537786,"volatility_mean":36.638119647433896,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68615","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Rionegro","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[22.49669749009247,14.756737836891844,5.3888727060879695],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68615|2023|Ordinary election|2725","CO-ALC-68615|2019|Ordinary election|2726","CO-ALC-68615|2015|Ordinary election|2727"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68615|2023|Ordinary election|2725","CO-ALC-68615|2019|Ordinary election|2726","CO-ALC-68615|2015|Ordinary election|2727"],"shares":[[0.4774108322324967,0.252443857331572],[0.49002450122506125,0.3424571228561428],[0.30774832508010486,0.2538595980192252]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":7.680364421340846,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,5.158520475561427,0,0,11.340819022457067,9.64332892998679,0,0,0,73.8573315719947],[0,0,5.180259012950647,0,4.2352117605880295,0,34.24571228561428,0,0,0,56.33881694084704],[0,14.761141858432858,5.163122633265366,23.914943198368775,30.774832508010487,0,0,0,0,0,25.385959801922517]],"volatility_latest":28.859333653604736,"volatility_previous":65.21570580422409,"volatility_mean":47.03751972891441,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68655","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Sabana De Torres","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.685248767089078,0.5258608269701774,4.357868801971051],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68655|2023|Ordinary election|2728","CO-ALC-68655|2019|Ordinary election|2729","CO-ALC-68655|2015|Ordinary election|2730"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68655|2023|Ordinary election|2728","CO-ALC-68655|2019|Ordinary election|2729","CO-ALC-68655|2015|Ordinary election|2730"],"shares":[[0.47818215868655967,0.30132967101566893],[0.2825961676991788,0.277337559429477],[0.3206036341238066,0.2770249461040961]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":43.97652805729197,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0.8552344091391473,0,0,0,0,0,3.0900805293713716,0,96.05468506148947],[0,11.071891658262498,6.238294193920185,0,28.25961676991788,0,0,0,4.041204437400951,0,50.38899294049849],[0,27.70249461040961,2.5870033877425316,0,5.066214967662457,5.543578688019711,0,0.20788420080073913,0,20.94240837696335,37.950415768401605]],"volatility_latest":45.66569212099098,"volatility_previous":43.32447421793091,"volatility_mean":44.49508316946095,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68669","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"San Andres","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.136661211129294,3.782211138819619,15.498981670061099],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68669|2023|Ordinary election|2731","CO-ALC-68669|2019|Ordinary election|2732","CO-ALC-68669|2015|Ordinary election|2733"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68669|2023|Ordinary election|2731","CO-ALC-68669|2019|Ordinary election|2732","CO-ALC-68669|2015|Ordinary election|2733"],"shares":[[0.4245090016366612,0.28314238952536824],[0.32959268495428096,0.29177057356608477],[0.4429735234215886,0.2879837067209776]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":44.16720882335214,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[28.314238952536826,0,0,0,3.641571194762684,1.207037643207856,0,0.5114566284779051,0,0,66.32569558101473],[0,0,29.17705735660848,0,32.9592684954281,0,0,0,0,0,37.86367414796342],[0,44.29735234215886,26.10997963340122,0,0.6517311608961304,0,0.1425661914460285,0,0,0,28.79837067209776]],"volatility_latest":58.494754657273894,"volatility_previous":44.43991853360489,"volatility_mean":51.46733659543939,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68673","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"San Benito","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[36.42503376857272,null,3.910614525139664],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68673|2023|Ordinary election|2734","CO-ALC-68673|2019|Ordinary election|2735","CO-ALC-68673|2015|Ordinary election|2736"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68673|2023|Ordinary election|2734","CO-ALC-68673|2019|Ordinary election|2735","CO-ALC-68673|2015|Ordinary election|2736"],"shares":[[0.6821251688428636,0.31787483115713644],[null,null],[0.5195530726256983,0.48044692737430167]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,31.78748311571364,0,0,0,0,0,0,68.21251688428636],null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68679","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"San Gil","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.954172812403524,23.516547601691208,18.680694849184427],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68679|2023|Ordinary election|2737","CO-ALC-68679|2019|Ordinary election|2738","CO-ALC-68679|2015|Ordinary election|2739"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68679|2023|Ordinary election|2737","CO-ALC-68679|2019|Ordinary election|2738","CO-ALC-68679|2015|Ordinary election|2739"],"shares":[[0.36377045244057216,0.24422872431653692],[0.4537469018807406,0.21858142586382853],[0.5041441168678803,0.31733716837603604]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":19.522312735660407,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[16.567763180461704,0,0,2.2261859842897813,0,0,0,0.7546393167084005,0,0,80.45141151854011],[21.858142586382854,0,0,0,0,0,8.448753462603879,0,0,0,69.69310395101326],[4.250085153086326,0,50.41441168678803,0,0.35575067176323655,1.4419255951254588,0,3.8678424100215723,7.936267645611777,0,31.733716837603602]],"volatility_latest":13.739132868525033,"volatility_previous":64.01619800931007,"volatility_mean":38.87766543891755,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68682","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"San Joaquin","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.128642111050027,19.374651032942495,1.4907573047107974],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68682|2023|Ordinary election|2740","CO-ALC-68682|2019|Ordinary election|2741","CO-ALC-68682|2015|Ordinary election|2742"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68682|2023|Ordinary election|2740","CO-ALC-68682|2019|Ordinary election|2741","CO-ALC-68682|2015|Ordinary election|2742"],"shares":[[0.5706432105552501,0.42935678944474986],[0.5968732551647125,0.40312674483528754],[0.4132379248658319,0.3983303518187239]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":27.80671846508078,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[18.843172331544423,0,39.83303518187239,41.32379248658319,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68684","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"San Jose De Miranda","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.84460744362945,5.691299165673421,2.7504911591355636],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68684|2023|Ordinary election|2743","CO-ALC-68684|2019|Ordinary election|2744","CO-ALC-68684|2015|Ordinary election|2745"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68684|2023|Ordinary election|2743","CO-ALC-68684|2019|Ordinary election|2744","CO-ALC-68684|2015|Ordinary election|2745"],"shares":[[0.42868785656071723,0.3102417821244227],[0.36829558998808104,0.31138259833134685],[0.5137524557956779,0.4862475442043222]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":54.55398334103374,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[31.078665077473183,0.08939213349225268,0,0,0,0,31.138259833134683,0,0,0,37.69368295589988],[0,0,51.37524557956778,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,48.62475442043222]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":62.30631704410012,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68686","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"San Miguel","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.7977528089887684,6.877113866967299,11.889035667107002],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68686|2023|Ordinary election|2746","CO-ALC-68686|2019|Ordinary election|2747","CO-ALC-68686|2015|Ordinary election|2748"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68686|2023|Ordinary election|2746","CO-ALC-68686|2019|Ordinary election|2747","CO-ALC-68686|2015|Ordinary election|2748"],"shares":[[0.4483146067415731,0.43033707865168536],[0.508455467869222,0.4396843291995491],[0.45442536327608984,0.33553500660501984]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":78.34655293902925,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0.13210039630118892,0,33.55350066050198,45.442536327608984,0,0,20.871862615587848,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68689","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"San Vicente De Chucuri","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.94523987242994,15.996649916247904,0.13612850530901],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68689|2023|Ordinary election|2749","CO-ALC-68689|2019|Ordinary election|2750","CO-ALC-68689|2015|Ordinary election|2751"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68689|2023|Ordinary election|2749","CO-ALC-68689|2019|Ordinary election|2750","CO-ALC-68689|2015|Ordinary election|2751"],"shares":[[0.4137205672796363,0.3042681685553369],[0.4991624790619765,0.3391959798994975],[0.3053362374081133,0.30397495235502314]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":43.10124125568382,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.8957046888783334,0,99.10429531112166],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,4.913456169737577,95.08654383026243],[1.7152191668935475,0,30.397495235502316,18.989926490607132,30.533623740811326,0,0,0,0,0,18.36373536618568]],"volatility_latest":4.913456169737572,"volatility_previous":81.63626463381432,"volatility_mean":43.274860401775946,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68705","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Santa Barbara","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.083257090576396,16.413214472994227,5.850091407678242],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68705|2023|Ordinary election|2752","CO-ALC-68705|2019|Ordinary election|2753","CO-ALC-68705|2015|Ordinary election|2754"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68705|2023|Ordinary election|2752","CO-ALC-68705|2019|Ordinary election|2753","CO-ALC-68705|2015|Ordinary election|2754"],"shares":[[0.565416285452882,0.434583714547118],[0.5804929208180387,0.4163607760880965],[0.4478976234003656,0.38939670932358317]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":33.20536131494036,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,0.3146303093864709,0,0,0,0,99.68536969061353],[38.93967093235832,0,3.534430225472273,0,12.736136502132846,0,0,0,0,0,44.78976234003656]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":55.21023765996344,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68720","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Santa Helena Del Opon","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.9076558800315695,25.16302263137706,23.939258597588207],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68720|2023|Ordinary election|2755","CO-ALC-68720|2019|Ordinary election|2756","CO-ALC-68720|2015|Ordinary election|2757"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68720|2023|Ordinary election|2755","CO-ALC-68720|2019|Ordinary election|2756","CO-ALC-68720|2015|Ordinary election|2757"],"shares":[[0.3764798737174428,0.3674033149171271],[0.6091292673571155,0.35749904104334485],[0.6190263510495757,0.3796337650736936]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":47.562869114045604,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0.07671653241273495,3.2604526275412353,0,0,60.912926735711544,0,0,0,0,35.74990410433448],[0.044662795891022775,0,61.90263510495757,0.08932559178204555,0,0,0,0,0,0,37.96337650736936]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":60.98964326812428,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68745","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Simacota","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.956925675675677,24.020076481835567,3.26059694005518],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68745|2023|Ordinary election|2758","CO-ALC-68745|2019|Ordinary election|2759","CO-ALC-68745|2015|Ordinary election|2760"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68745|2023|Ordinary election|2758","CO-ALC-68745|2019|Ordinary election|2759","CO-ALC-68745|2015|Ordinary election|2760"],"shares":[[0.46410472972972977,0.32453547297297297],[0.4376195028680689,0.1974187380497132],[0.4752947078003511,0.44268873839979933]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":20.468809780192032,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,19.74187380497132,17.63862332695985,5.999043977055449,0.33460803059273425,0,0,0,0,12.523900573613767,43.761950286806886],[0,0,47.52947078003511,0,0,0,8.20165537998495,0,0,0,44.26887383997993]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":38.59942638623327,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68755","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Socorro","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.604446558078706,11.995922787793845,9.067841880341877],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68755|2023|Ordinary election|2761","CO-ALC-68755|2019|Ordinary election|2762","CO-ALC-68755|2015|Ordinary election|2763"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68755|2023|Ordinary election|2761","CO-ALC-68755|2019|Ordinary election|2762","CO-ALC-68755|2015|Ordinary election|2763"],"shares":[[0.3166092022351682,0.25056473665438117],[0.49066700643435046,0.370707778556412],[0.3631810897435897,0.27250267094017094]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":57.658855203902185,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[16.99560099869219,0,0,25.056473665438116,0,3.6559267625728213,0,0,0,0,54.29199857329688],[0,0,0,0,37.070777855641204,4.860801427024272,0,0,0,0,58.06842071733452],[8.727297008547009,18.456196581196583,6.543803418803419,2.704326923076923,0,0,0,0,0,0,63.56837606837607]],"volatility_latest":42.0520746641303,"volatility_previous":41.93157928266548,"volatility_mean":41.99182697339789,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68770","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Suaita","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[22.28767795778105,17.107786728039894,25.362049758633496],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68770|2023|Ordinary election|2764","CO-ALC-68770|2019|Ordinary election|2765","CO-ALC-68770|2015|Ordinary election|2766"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68770|2023|Ordinary election|2764","CO-ALC-68770|2019|Ordinary election|2765","CO-ALC-68770|2015|Ordinary election|2766"],"shares":[[0.46277205040091635,0.23989527082310588],[0.43805140007671656,0.2669735327963176],[0.6255105829929447,0.3718900854066097]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,23.989527082310588,0,1.3254786450662739,0,0,0,74.68499427262314],[0,0,26.69735327963176,0,0,11.69927119294208,0,0,0,12.082853855005753,49.52052167242041],[0,37.18900854066097,62.55105829929447,0.25993316004455996,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":50.47947832757959,"volatility_previous":73.30264672036824,"volatility_mean":61.891062523973915,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68773","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Sucre","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[19.258522020403085,1.904761904761905,23.556463975472667],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68773|2023|Ordinary election|2767","CO-ALC-68773|2019|Ordinary election|2768","CO-ALC-68773|2015|Ordinary election|2769"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68773|2023|Ordinary election|2767","CO-ALC-68773|2019|Ordinary election|2768","CO-ALC-68773|2015|Ordinary election|2769"],"shares":[[0.5389400348345359,0.3463548146305051],[0.5067155067155067,0.48766788766788766],[0.6177823198773633,0.3822176801226367]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":27.589059093911562,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0.5616605616605617,50.67155067155067,0,0,0,0,0,0,48.766788766788764],[61.77823198773633,0,38.22176801226367,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":99.43833943833944,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68780","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Surata","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.38235294117647,13.043478260869563,13.644140290846881],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68780|2023|Ordinary election|2770","CO-ALC-68780|2019|Ordinary election|2771","CO-ALC-68780|2015|Ordinary election|2772"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68780|2023|Ordinary election|2770","CO-ALC-68780|2019|Ordinary election|2771","CO-ALC-68780|2015|Ordinary election|2772"],"shares":[[0.5802139037433155,0.39639037433155083],[0.5652173913043478,0.43478260869565216],[0.43498716852010266,0.2985457656116339]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":18.465653639742797,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[58.02139037433155,0,0,0,0,0,2.339572192513369,0,0,0,39.63903743315508],null,[0,0,0,29.854576561163388,0.21385799828913601,0,0,0.9837467921300257,0,0,68.94781864841745]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68820","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Tona","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.873362445414845,19.943820224719097,4.949944382647388],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68820|2023|Ordinary election|2773","CO-ALC-68820|2019|Ordinary election|2774","CO-ALC-68820|2015|Ordinary election|2775"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68820|2023|Ordinary election|2773","CO-ALC-68820|2019|Ordinary election|2774","CO-ALC-68820|2015|Ordinary election|2775"],"shares":[[0.40829694323144106,0.2995633187772926],[0.5395812053115424,0.3401430030643514],[0.36262513904338156,0.3131256952169077]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":34.98921013535312,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,28.930131004366814,0,0,0,29.95633187772926,0,0,0,0,41.11353711790393],[0,34.01430030643514,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,65.98569969356485],[0,36.26251390433816,31.31256952169077,30.367074527252502,0,0.05561735261401557,0.1668520578420467,0,0,0,1.835372636262514]],"volatility_latest":29.956331877729255,"volatility_previous":64.15032705730235,"volatility_mean":47.0533294675158,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68855","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Valle De San Jose","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.2505789717461795,12.836056931997888,11.548839719373987],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68855|2023|Ordinary election|2776","CO-ALC-68855|2019|Ordinary election|2777","CO-ALC-68855|2015|Ordinary election|2778"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68855|2023|Ordinary election|2776","CO-ALC-68855|2019|Ordinary election|2777","CO-ALC-68855|2015|Ordinary election|2778"],"shares":[[0.37077350625289485,0.35826771653543305],[0.4839219820769636,0.3555614127569847],[0.4840798704803022,0.36859147328656233]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":71.21975782707763,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,6.090782769800834,0,0,20.28716998610468,0,0,0,73.62204724409449],[0,0,0,0,0,0,35.55614127569847,0,0,0.316288877174486,64.12756984712703],[0,0,0,14.732865623313545,0,0,0,0,0,0,85.26713437668646]],"volatility_latest":15.585260166768283,"volatility_previous":35.872430152872965,"volatility_mean":25.728845159820622,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68861","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Velez","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.4111965659095,1.2445026667914263,33.91321344800625],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68861|2023|Ordinary election|2779","CO-ALC-68861|2019|Ordinary election|2780","CO-ALC-68861|2015|Ordinary election|2781"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68861|2023|Ordinary election|2779","CO-ALC-68861|2019|Ordinary election|2780","CO-ALC-68861|2015|Ordinary election|2781"],"shares":[[0.5501699159363262,0.43605795027723127],[0.4915317675680733,0.47908674090015907],[0.5584440969507427,0.21931196247068022]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":46.943049578081244,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,43.605795027723126,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,56.394204972276874],[0.1403574436230935,47.90867409001591,0,0,0,0,0.2058575839805371,0,0,0,51.74511088238046],[11.385848318999217,55.844409695074276,9.743940578577014,0,0,0,0,0,1.09460516028147,0,21.931196247068023]],"volatility_latest":4.649094089896414,"volatility_previous":30.019772219292975,"volatility_mean":17.334433154594695,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68867","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Vetas","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[41.34790528233151,7.639484978540779,5.173876166242579],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68867|2023|Ordinary election|2782","CO-ALC-68867|2019|Ordinary election|2783","CO-ALC-68867|2015|Ordinary election|2784"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68867|2023|Ordinary election|2782","CO-ALC-68867|2019|Ordinary election|2783","CO-ALC-68867|2015|Ordinary election|2784"],"shares":[[0.7021857923497268,0.2887067395264117],[0.538197424892704,0.4618025751072961],[0.5258693808312129,0.4741306191687871]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,53.81974248927039,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,46.18025751072961],[52.58693808312129,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,47.41306191687871]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":53.81974248927039,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68872","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Villanueva","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[19.757705326919652,9.60643250105798,27.442466348241425],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68872|2023|Ordinary election|2785","CO-ALC-68872|2019|Ordinary election|2786","CO-ALC-68872|2015|Ordinary election|2787"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68872|2023|Ordinary election|2785","CO-ALC-68872|2019|Ordinary election|2786","CO-ALC-68872|2015|Ordinary election|2787"],"shares":[[0.4624977730269018,0.2649207197577053],[0.5480321625052899,0.4519678374947101],[0.6372123317412072,0.3627876682587929]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":12.596002093533375,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[45.19678374947101,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,54.80321625052899],[0,0,63.72123317412071,36.27876682587929,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-68895","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Zapatoca","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.296965444658834,24.1783546158677,16.39414802065405],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-68895|2023|Ordinary election|2788","CO-ALC-68895|2019|Ordinary election|2789","CO-ALC-68895|2015|Ordinary election|2790"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-68895|2023|Ordinary election|2788","CO-ALC-68895|2019|Ordinary election|2789","CO-ALC-68895|2015|Ordinary election|2790"],"shares":[[0.3729170320996317,0.2999473776530433],[0.5509734142767427,0.3091898681180657],[0.5283993115318417,0.3644578313253012]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":33.64449773189493,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,4.500732677412602,0,0,0,95.4992673225874],[52.83993115318417,0,0,0,0,10.714285714285714,0,0,0,0,36.44578313253012]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":63.55421686746988,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-70001","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Sincelejo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[28.62469747284291,7.339666580416218,8.038822228592494],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-70001|2023|Ordinary election|2791","CO-ALC-70001|2019|Ordinary election|2792","CO-ALC-70001|2015|Ordinary election|2793"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-70001|2023|Ordinary election|2791","CO-ALC-70001|2019|Ordinary election|2792","CO-ALC-70001|2015|Ordinary election|2793"],"shares":[[0.5546659537344515,0.2684189790060224],[0.3660444313015192,0.29264776549735705],[0.47785740611818667,0.3974691838322617]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,55.46659537344515,0,0,0,0,0,0.12452862047616367,0,44.40887600607869],[0,29.264776549735704,0,0,0,1.6256977045059697,25.591986101356596,0,0,0,43.51753964440173],[0,0,9.547483516933536,0,0,1.3456734510012696,0,0,0,1.574184037020353,87.53265899504484]],"volatility_latest":56.48246035559828,"volatility_previous":55.136786904597,"volatility_mean":55.80962363009764,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-70110","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Buenavista","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.224216447897135,14.079102715466355,22.010324060797245],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-70110|2023|Ordinary election|2794","CO-ALC-70110|2019|Ordinary election|2795","CO-ALC-70110|2015|Ordinary election|2796"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-70110|2023|Ordinary election|2794","CO-ALC-70110|2019|Ordinary election|2795","CO-ALC-70110|2015|Ordinary election|2796"],"shares":[[0.42177873024377177,0.30953656576480043],[0.5453069657615113,0.40451593860684765],[0.6026670490392888,0.3825638084313163]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":34.203534552710444,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[42.17787302437718,0,0.0669702652022502,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,57.75515671042057],[40.45159386068477,0,0.3246753246753247,0,0,0,54.53069657615112,0.4722550177095632,0,0,4.220779220779221],[0,60.266704903928876,1.4769142529394896,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,38.25638084313163]],"volatility_latest":55.26065665333376,"volatility_previous":95.45454545454545,"volatility_mean":75.3576010539396,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-70124","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Caimito","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.24137931034483,32.326820603907635,24.334770328526837],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-70124|2023|Ordinary election|2797","CO-ALC-70124|2019|Ordinary election|2798","CO-ALC-70124|2015|Ordinary election|2799"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-70124|2023|Ordinary election|2797","CO-ALC-70124|2019|Ordinary election|2798","CO-ALC-70124|2015|Ordinary election|2799"],"shares":[[0.4181818181818182,0.2857680250783699],[0.5910643530536959,0.2677961470146195],[0.6139438085327784,0.37059610524751]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[26.608150470219435,0,41.81818181818182,0,0,0,0,2.7711598746081503,0,0,28.802507836990596],[26.77961470146195,13.635742587785217,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,59.58464271075284],[0,0.23784748030325553,0,37.059610524751,1.3081611416679055,0,0,0,0,0,61.39438085327784]],"volatility_latest":44.58934169278997,"volatility_previous":40.17750980894391,"volatility_mean":42.38342575086694,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-70204","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Coloso (Ricaurte)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[52.60175935589682,31.622746185852982,19.38186557438094],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-70204|2023|Ordinary election|2800","CO-ALC-70204|2019|Ordinary election|2801","CO-ALC-70204|2015|Ordinary election|2802"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-70204|2023|Ordinary election|2800","CO-ALC-70204|2019|Ordinary election|2801","CO-ALC-70204|2015|Ordinary election|2802"],"shares":[[0.744446101088415,0.21842850752944684],[0.6220527045769765,0.30582524271844663],[0.5969093278719046,0.4030906721280953]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-70215","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Corozal","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.32553179547623046,12.547505580020506,55.477008885141714],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-70215|2023|Ordinary election|2803","CO-ALC-70215|2019|Ordinary election|2804","CO-ALC-70215|2015|Ordinary election|2805"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-70215|2023|Ordinary election|2803","CO-ALC-70215|2019|Ordinary election|2804","CO-ALC-70215|2015|Ordinary election|2805"],"shares":[[0.34085424033226697,0.33759892237750466],[0.4062858176992218,0.2808107618990167],[0.7368506388222323,0.18208054997081521]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":52.4636418009697,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-70221","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Coveñas","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[21.323111868256674,24.699750736460455,13.152375077112893],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-70221|2023|Ordinary election|2806","CO-ALC-70221|2019|Ordinary election|2807","CO-ALC-70221|2015|Ordinary election|2808"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-70221|2023|Ordinary election|2806","CO-ALC-70221|2019|Ordinary election|2807","CO-ALC-70221|2015|Ordinary election|2808"],"shares":[[0.4858035207268598,0.272572402044293],[0.5588035350101971,0.31180602764559257],[0.5463294262800741,0.41480567550894515]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[27.2572402044293,0,0,0,48.580352072685976,0,0,2.8771531326897595,0,0,21.285254590194963],[0.6231588488556538,0,0.2832540222071153,3.8862451846816226,55.88035350101971,7.115341037842738,31.180602764559257,0,0.849762066621346,0,0.1812825742125538],[0,3.8864898210980874,0,0,41.48056755089451,0,0,0,0,0,54.632942628007406]],"volatility_latest":50.61520650424582,"volatility_previous":58.338149874892935,"volatility_mean":54.47667818956938,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-70230","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Chalan","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.43320235756385,21.652267818574515,3.967797584818868],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-70230|2023|Ordinary election|2809","CO-ALC-70230|2019|Ordinary election|2810","CO-ALC-70230|2015|Ordinary election|2811"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-70230|2023|Ordinary election|2809","CO-ALC-70230|2019|Ordinary election|2810","CO-ALC-70230|2015|Ordinary election|2811"],"shares":[[0.44351669941060906,0.30918467583497056],[0.5969222462203024,0.3803995680345572],[0.516676250718804,0.47699827487061525]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":25.23809240703725,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[44.351669941060905,30.918467583497055,0,0,0,0,23.821218074656187,0,0,0,0.9086444007858546],[0,0.08099352051835854,0,0,59.69222462203024,0.08099352051835854,38.03995680345572,0.3509719222462203,0,0,1.7548596112311015],[0.20126509488211616,0,0,0,47.699827487061526,0,0.20126509488211616,0.23001725129384704,0,0,51.667625071880394]],"volatility_latest":75.1891440040396,"volatility_previous":50.11403055553141,"volatility_mean":62.6515872797855,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-70233","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"El Roble","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.457332652018398,7.711226851851848,32.10831721470019],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-70233|2023|Ordinary election|2812","CO-ALC-70233|2019|Ordinary election|2813","CO-ALC-70233|2015|Ordinary election|2814"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-70233|2023|Ordinary election|2812","CO-ALC-70233|2019|Ordinary election|2813","CO-ALC-70233|2015|Ordinary election|2814"],"shares":[[0.4463464486458866,0.2917731221257026],[0.4681712962962963,0.3910590277777778],[0.5625402965828498,0.24145712443584785]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":26.007003158816943,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,29.17731221257026,0,0,0,70.82268778742976],[39.10590277777778,0,46.817129629629626,0,0,0,0,14.076967592592593,0,0,0],[0,10.477111540941328,24.145712443584785,56.25402965828498,0,0,0,0,0,0,9.12314635718891]],"volatility_latest":100.00000000000001,"volatility_previous":75.85428755641522,"volatility_mean":87.92714377820761,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-70235","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Galeras (Nueva Granada)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.173309314718907,14.36670031839714,19.551334534141148],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-70235|2023|Ordinary election|2815","CO-ALC-70235|2019|Ordinary election|2816","CO-ALC-70235|2015|Ordinary election|2817"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-70235|2023|Ordinary election|2815","CO-ALC-70235|2019|Ordinary election|2816","CO-ALC-70235|2015|Ordinary election|2817"],"shares":[[0.5603092396607371,0.388576146513548],[0.44622194610545934,0.30255494292148793],[0.5977566726707058,0.40224332732929424]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":17.154354311176988,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[38.8576146513548,0,56.03092396607371,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,5.111461382571493],[0,30.255494292148793,0,0,23.99627242370117,0,0,0,0,0,45.74823328415003],[40.224332732929426,0,59.775667267070574,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":94.88853861742851,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":97.44426930871425,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-70265","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Guaranda","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.614324013787822,18.6,3.2992930086410013],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-70265|2023|Ordinary election|2818","CO-ALC-70265|2019|Ordinary election|2819","CO-ALC-70265|2015|Ordinary election|2820"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-70265|2023|Ordinary election|2818","CO-ALC-70265|2019|Ordinary election|2819","CO-ALC-70265|2015|Ordinary election|2820"],"shares":[[0.4622749904251245,0.34613175028724624],[0.5911111111111111,0.40511111111111114],[0.5155425878128156,0.4825496577264056]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":35.607381454316034,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,34.613175028724626,12.08349291459211,0,1.1681348142474148,0,0,0,0,52.13519724243585],[59.111111111111114,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,40.88888888888889],[0,51.55425878128156,48.25496577264056,0.15710919088766692,0,0,0,0,0,0.03366625519021434,0]],"volatility_latest":59.111111111111114,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":79.55555555555556,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-70400","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"La Union","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.0194516053433347,32.92878100826887,14.516357456450933],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-70400|2023|Ordinary election|2821","CO-ALC-70400|2019|Ordinary election|2822","CO-ALC-70400|2015|Ordinary election|2823"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-70400|2023|Ordinary election|2821","CO-ALC-70400|2019|Ordinary election|2822","CO-ALC-70400|2015|Ordinary election|2823"],"shares":[[0.5039840637450199,0.4937895476915866],[0.6010936249666577,0.27180581488396904],[0.5725817872822546,0.4274182127177453]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":40.29029494334122,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,50.398406374501995,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,49.60159362549801],[0,11.749799946652441,60.109362496665774,0,0,0,0,27.180581488396907,0,0,0.960256068284876],[0,0,57.25817872822547,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,42.74182127177453]],"volatility_latest":48.641337557213134,"volatility_previous":41.781565203489656,"volatility_mean":45.21145138035139,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-70418","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Los Palmitos","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.74162465700976,3.5098315549291996,0.9162120576304318],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-70418|2023|Ordinary election|2824","CO-ALC-70418|2019|Ordinary election|2825","CO-ALC-70418|2015|Ordinary election|2826"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-70418|2023|Ordinary election|2824","CO-ALC-70418|2019|Ordinary election|2825","CO-ALC-70418|2015|Ordinary election|2826"],"shares":[[0.5579095143896369,0.3704932678195393],[0.49580565062747467,0.4607073350781827],[0.5037068121415582,0.49454469156525394]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":38.05227266776171,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,55.79095143896369,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,44.20904856103631],[0,46.07073350781827,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,53.92926649218174],[0,50.37068121415582,0,49.45446915652539,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.17484962931878584]],"volatility_latest":9.720217931145424,"volatility_previous":53.75441686286295,"volatility_mean":31.73731739700419,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-70429","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Majagual","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.135283363802557,27.38702917629359,24.940911648846374],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-70429|2023|Ordinary election|2827","CO-ALC-70429|2019|Ordinary election|2828","CO-ALC-70429|2015|Ordinary election|2829"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-70429|2023|Ordinary election|2827","CO-ALC-70429|2019|Ordinary election|2828","CO-ALC-70429|2015|Ordinary election|2829"],"shares":[[0.45126527470412775,0.36991244106610216],[0.5650421793562947,0.29117188759335877],[0.49257175014068655,0.24316263365222285]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":22.043150319728756,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,36.99124410661022,45.126527470412775,0,0,0.35600885211199845,0,0,0,0,17.526219570865006],[12.954704207189296,0,0,0,56.50421793562947,1.0585137821718338,0,0.20955348987158132,0,0,29.273010585137822],[19.144625773776028,24.316263365222284,0,49.25717501406866,7.203151378728194,0,0,0,0,0.07878446820483961,0]],"volatility_latest":82.11777157702299,"volatility_previous":79.84214441408251,"volatility_mean":80.97995799555275,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-70473","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Morroa","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.3479657387580275,39.70964987190435,9.988274171197098],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-70473|2023|Ordinary election|2830","CO-ALC-70473|2019|Ordinary election|2831","CO-ALC-70473|2015|Ordinary election|2832"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-70473|2023|Ordinary election|2830","CO-ALC-70473|2019|Ordinary election|2831","CO-ALC-70473|2015|Ordinary election|2832"],"shares":[[0.45753033547466093,0.45405067808708066],[0.6975993927317582,0.3005028940127147],[0.4339622641509434,0.33407952243897243]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":34.39749089027085,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,69.75993927317582,0,0,0,0,0,0.18977132555270898,0,0,30.050289401271467],[33.40795224389724,0,43.39622641509434,0,0,0.8314678605692357,0,0,0,0,22.364353480439185]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":77.63564651956081,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-70508","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Ovejas","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[52.42173656231542,21.602263151558923,9.347279226797298],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-70508|2023|Ordinary election|2833","CO-ALC-70508|2019|Ordinary election|2834","CO-ALC-70508|2015|Ordinary election|2835"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-70508|2023|Ordinary election|2833","CO-ALC-70508|2019|Ordinary election|2834","CO-ALC-70508|2015|Ordinary election|2835"],"shares":[[0.714057885410514,0.18984051978735972],[0.5864933188876851,0.3704706873720959],[0.5467363961339865,0.4532636038660135]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,18.984051978735973,0,0,0,0.26580035440047256,0,0,0,0,80.75014766686355],[58.64933188876851,0,0,37.047068737209585,0,1.1014806789454676,0,0,0,0,3.2021186950764413],[45.32636038660135,54.67363961339865,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":96.5320809505231,"volatility_previous":54.67363961339865,"volatility_mean":75.60286028196087,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-70523","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Palmito","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[35.33705017739483,5.344224037339551,8.589041095890408],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-70523|2023|Ordinary election|2836","CO-ALC-70523|2019|Ordinary election|2837","CO-ALC-70523|2015|Ordinary election|2838"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-70523|2023|Ordinary election|2836","CO-ALC-70523|2019|Ordinary election|2837","CO-ALC-70523|2015|Ordinary election|2838"],"shares":[[0.5732387227572225,0.2198682209832742],[0.46172695449241535,0.40828471411901984],[0.540958904109589,0.4550684931506849]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[21.98682209832742,0,0,0,15.144450076026356,3.1931069437404966,0,0,0,0,59.675620881905736],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,40.82847141190199,0,0,59.17152858809801],[54.0958904109589,0,0.273972602739726,0,0.1232876712328767,0,0,0,0,45.50684931506849,0]],"volatility_latest":40.828471411901994,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":70.414235705951,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-70670","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Sampues","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.5279996970959004,11.75691887643238,7.993947799773039],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-70670|2023|Ordinary election|2839","CO-ALC-70670|2019|Ordinary election|2840","CO-ALC-70670|2015|Ordinary election|2841"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-70670|2023|Ordinary election|2839","CO-ALC-70670|2019|Ordinary election|2840","CO-ALC-70670|2015|Ordinary election|2841"],"shares":[[0.43288781189655823,0.3776078149255992],[0.44926157282918955,0.3316923840648658],[0.471315092674316,0.39137561467658555]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":61.78364869417721,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[43.28878118965582,0,0,37.76078149255992,0,0,0,17.647949717920564,0,0,1.3024875998636931],[0,0.5584743308650146,7.284987382616969,44.92615728291896,0,0,0,33.16923840648658,0,7.020229181317999,7.040913415794481],[0.2479720926322868,13.48295717227756,47.131509267431596,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,39.13756146765856]],"volatility_latest":43.28878118965582,"volatility_previous":85.11562487072354,"volatility_mean":64.20220303018968,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-70678","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"San Benito Abad","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.847495088408643,22.2956568653898,1.8146883005977799],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-70678|2023|Ordinary election|2842","CO-ALC-70678|2019|Ordinary election|2843","CO-ALC-70678|2015|Ordinary election|2844"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-70678|2023|Ordinary election|2842","CO-ALC-70678|2019|Ordinary election|2843","CO-ALC-70678|2015|Ordinary election|2844"],"shares":[[0.4607686640471513,0.28229371316306484],[0.5672376584839492,0.34428108983005123],[0.5072587532023911,0.48911187019641333]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":12.106685286390473,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[28.229371316306484,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,71.77062868369353],[0,34.428108983005124,0,0,3.635014836795252,0,0,56.723765848394926,0,0,5.213110331804694],[0.3629376601195559,50.72587532023911,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,48.91118701964133]],"volatility_latest":94.78688966819531,"volatility_previous":60.35878068519018,"volatility_mean":77.57283517669275,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-70702","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"San Juan De Betulia (Betulia)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[27.7085036794767,11.97792685565895,10.404174994448141],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-70702|2023|Ordinary election|2845","CO-ALC-70702|2019|Ordinary election|2846","CO-ALC-70702|2015|Ordinary election|2847"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-70702|2023|Ordinary election|2845","CO-ALC-70702|2019|Ordinary election|2846","CO-ALC-70702|2015|Ordinary election|2847"],"shares":[[0.5258585445625511,0.24877350776778415],[0.49653754598571737,0.3767582774291279],[0.4280479680213191,0.3240062180768377]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,22.444807849550287,0,0,0,52.58585445625511,0.0919869174161897,0,0,0,24.877350776778414],[37.67582774291279,49.65375459857174,0,0.3354252326336291,0,0,11.999567193248215,0,0,0,0.3354252326336291],[24.794581390184323,32.40062180768377,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,42.80479680213191]],"volatility_latest":77.1277800003999,"volatility_previous":42.46937156949828,"volatility_mean":59.79857578494909,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-70708","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"San Marcos","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.47218995999484,4.411205913848491,3.9885937048801594],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-70708|2023|Ordinary election|2848","CO-ALC-70708|2019|Ordinary election|2849","CO-ALC-70708|2015|Ordinary election|2850"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-70708|2023|Ordinary election|2848","CO-ALC-70708|2019|Ordinary election|2849","CO-ALC-70708|2015|Ordinary election|2850"],"shares":[[0.3943412053168151,0.2996193057168667],[0.32463988393381465,0.2805278247953297],[0.37752671094426793,0.3376407738954664]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":62.97232439680267,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,21.738288811459544,39.43412053168151,0,0,0.8194605755581366,0.18389469608981804,0,0.09678668215253582,0,37.72744870305846],[0.4283394935921794,27.924971501606272,28.052782479532972,0,32.46398839338146,1.3126532868147431,0,0,0,0,9.81726484507237],[37.752671094426795,0,0,0,4.735778226970835,0,33.764077389546635,0,0,0,23.747473289055733]],"volatility_latest":39.572203288376976,"volatility_previous":85.01861743436461,"volatility_mean":62.2954103613708,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-70713","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"San Onofre","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.549688649357265,6.08000620804718,1.1431586352444612],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-70713|2023|Ordinary election|2851","CO-ALC-70713|2019|Ordinary election|2852","CO-ALC-70713|2015|Ordinary election|2853"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-70713|2023|Ordinary election|2851","CO-ALC-70713|2019|Ordinary election|2852","CO-ALC-70713|2015|Ordinary election|2853"],"shares":[[0.5258730563344379,0.4703761698408653],[0.38862375354052686,0.3278236914600551],[0.370339430179388,0.35890784382694335]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":73.6593454222352,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[47.037616984086526,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.20756709515312624,0,52.75481592076035],[32.78236914600551,38.86237535405269,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,28.355255499941798],[35.890784382694335,0,0.3649314104818853,25.791417516707703,0,0.9189236721772776,0,37.033943017938796,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":38.862375354052695,"volatility_previous":67.21763085399449,"volatility_mean":53.0400031040236,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-70717","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"San Pedro","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.631848064280497,11.256856665871688,0.8991596638655466],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-70717|2023|Ordinary election|2854","CO-ALC-70717|2019|Ordinary election|2855","CO-ALC-70717|2015|Ordinary election|2856"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-70717|2023|Ordinary election|2854","CO-ALC-70717|2019|Ordinary election|2855","CO-ALC-70717|2015|Ordinary election|2856"],"shares":[[0.49240321402483567,0.4360847333820307],[0.5102949360044519,0.39772636934573496],[0.45176470588235296,0.4427731092436975]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":65.7695909764182,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,49.240321402483566,0,7.151205259313367,0,0,43.60847333820307],null,[0,0,45.1764705882353,8.478991596638656,0.6722689075630253,0,0,0,0.226890756302521,1.1680672268907564,44.27731092436975]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-70742","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Since","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.588373318009864,8.624166278889405,11.701727013504062],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-70742|2023|Ordinary election|2857","CO-ALC-70742|2019|Ordinary election|2858","CO-ALC-70742|2015|Ordinary election|2859"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-70742|2023|Ordinary election|2857","CO-ALC-70742|2019|Ordinary election|2858","CO-ALC-70742|2015|Ordinary election|2859"],"shares":[[0.41991093233730786,0.3040271991572092],[0.5176567912724264,0.43141512848353236],[0.5369882175714209,0.4199709474363803]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":46.44776712088428,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,23.387444332710817,0,0,0,0.9146195469999521,0,0,0,0,75.69793612028924],[0,0,0,0,0,2.6575668269479342,0,0,0,0,97.34243317305206],[41.99709474363803,53.69882175714209,0,0,0,4.304083499219884,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":23.387444332710807,"volatility_previous":97.34243317305206,"volatility_mean":60.36493875288143,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-70771","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Sucre","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.973173778683673,6.055755635587566,0.5408736135834573],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-70771|2023|Ordinary election|2860","CO-ALC-70771|2019|Ordinary election|2861","CO-ALC-70771|2015|Ordinary election|2862"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-70771|2023|Ordinary election|2860","CO-ALC-70771|2019|Ordinary election|2861","CO-ALC-70771|2015|Ordinary election|2862"],"shares":[[0.4569662699717273,0.3372345321848906],[0.513672135520875,0.4531145791649993],[0.4874709023688895,0.4820621662330549]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":54.726408403775906,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,45.69662699717273,0,0,0.24327700703530805,0,0,0,0,54.060095995791976],[0,45.31145791649993,0.11337868480725624,0,51.3672135520875,0.03334667200213419,0,0,0,0,3.174603174603175],[0,0,0.3560180747637957,48.74709023688895,0,1.157058742982336,1.0269752156647953,0.5066411063946323,0,0,48.206216623305494]],"volatility_latest":96.67867146858744,"volatility_previous":96.67867146858744,"volatility_mean":96.67867146858744,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-70820","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Tolu","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.5634989828538224,3.8163880191410158,11.929529192471886],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-70820|2023|Ordinary election|2863","CO-ALC-70820|2019|Ordinary election|2864","CO-ALC-70820|2015|Ordinary election|2865"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-70820|2023|Ordinary election|2863","CO-ALC-70820|2019|Ordinary election|2864","CO-ALC-70820|2015|Ordinary election|2865"],"shares":[[0.3040976460331299,0.28846265620459166],[0.3294145448100667,0.29125066461865656],[0.4201190547772232,0.30082376285250434]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":83.62015642649106,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[28.846265620459167,0,0,30.40976460331299,0,24.434757337983143,0,0,0,0,16.309212438244696],[29.125066461865657,10.61617534117091,1.4887457907485082,0,32.94145448100667,1.665977432504283,0,0,0,12.3825840373368,11.779996455367165],[0.15633455594973242,42.01190547772232,0,0,0,0,0,5.676146954482593,0,22.073236726594914,30.082376285250437]],"volatility_latest":57.70776049166938,"volatility_previous":65.06490961017539,"volatility_mean":61.38633505092238,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-70823","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Toluviejo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.084564602326317,3.6610169491525397,24.074074074074076],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-70823|2023|Ordinary election|2866","CO-ALC-70823|2019|Ordinary election|2867","CO-ALC-70823|2015|Ordinary election|2868"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-70823|2023|Ordinary election|2866","CO-ALC-70823|2019|Ordinary election|2867","CO-ALC-70823|2015|Ordinary election|2868"],"shares":[[0.5415906947500786,0.43074504872681546],[0.5144406779661017,0.4778305084745763],[0.6000609663161104,0.3593202255753696]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":49.2177437322552,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,54.15906947500786,0,0,0.4904118201823326,0,0,0,0,45.35051870480981],[0,0.3728813559322034,51.44406779661017,47.78305084745763,0,0.10847457627118644,0.29152542372881357,0,0,0,0],[0,60.00609663161104,4.061880810852005,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,35.93202255753696]],"volatility_latest":48.447457627118645,"volatility_previous":95.5652378332158,"volatility_mean":72.00634773016722,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73001","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Ibague","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.0457145921979496,4.606021679731715,6.18555650650039],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73001|2023|Ordinary election|2869","CO-ALC-73001|2019|Ordinary election|2870","CO-ALC-73001|2015|Ordinary election|2871"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73001|2023|Ordinary election|2869","CO-ALC-73001|2019|Ordinary election|2870","CO-ALC-73001|2015|Ordinary election|2871"],"shares":[[0.33495280151607254,0.31449565559409304],[0.2501276671913744,0.20406745039405727],[0.3248206789746098,0.26296511390960586]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":83.8610454505584,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[31.449565559409304,0,0,0,0,7.804287195623413,2.653126899560196,0,0,0,58.09302034540708],[25.012766719137442,13.283705454679463,0,0,10.972007981173697,0,0,0,0,0,50.731519845009394],[0,13.428699515018137,0,0,7.076048416676856,0,0,32.48206789746098,0,4.589497493581122,42.42368667726291]],"volatility_latest":24.25571343585316,"volatility_previous":37.216559451380775,"volatility_mean":30.736136443616967,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73024","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Alpujarra","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[28.022759601706966,26.472929936305732,25.796178343949045],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73024|2023|Ordinary election|2872","CO-ALC-73024|2019|Ordinary election|2873","CO-ALC-73024|2015|Ordinary election|2874"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73024|2023|Ordinary election|2872","CO-ALC-73024|2019|Ordinary election|2873","CO-ALC-73024|2015|Ordinary election|2874"],"shares":[[0.6230440967283072,0.3428165007112376],[0.5613057324840764,0.2965764331210191],[0.5736464968152866,0.3156847133757962]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[56.13057324840764,0,0,0,14.211783439490446,0,29.65764331210191,0,0,0,0],[0,0,11.066878980891719,31.568471337579616,0,0,0,0,0,0,57.36464968152866]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73026","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Alvarado","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.827474485663373,11.248497338141853,6.631825554153906],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73026|2023|Ordinary election|2875","CO-ALC-73026|2019|Ordinary election|2876","CO-ALC-73026|2015|Ordinary election|2877"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73026|2023|Ordinary election|2875","CO-ALC-73026|2019|Ordinary election|2876","CO-ALC-73026|2015|Ordinary election|2877"],"shares":[[0.4490523246395594,0.40077757978292566],[0.4195431907951228,0.30705821741370426],[0.5229771129933322,0.4566588574517931]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":65.32891775872015,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,25.536664949338828,30.70582174137043,0,0,0,0,1.8031942297784647,0,0,41.95431907951228],[0,52.297711299333216,45.66588574517931,0,2.036402955487475,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":43.757513309290744,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73030","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Ambalema","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.9995489400090207,5.247376311844079,13.403211418376447],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73030|2023|Ordinary election|2878","CO-ALC-73030|2019|Ordinary election|2879","CO-ALC-73030|2015|Ordinary election|2880"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73030|2023|Ordinary election|2878","CO-ALC-73030|2019|Ordinary election|2879","CO-ALC-73030|2015|Ordinary election|2880"],"shares":[[0.42174109156517814,0.39174560216508797],[0.44956093381880485,0.3970871707003641],[0.425735950044603,0.29170383586083853]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":76.42868300301859,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.9472259810554804,0,99.05277401894452],[0,12.443778110944528,0.920968087384879,39.70871707003641,44.956093381880486,0.6639537374170058,0,0,0,0,1.3064896123366887],[0,6.801962533452275,29.170383586083855,42.5735950044603,18.911685994647637,2.542372881355932,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":98.69351038766331,"volatility_previous":32.992712577061795,"volatility_mean":65.84311148236256,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73043","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Anzoategui","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.798381658799727,11.716360856269112,10.854597002835149],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73043|2023|Ordinary election|2881","CO-ALC-73043|2019|Ordinary election|2882","CO-ALC-73043|2015|Ordinary election|2883"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73043|2023|Ordinary election|2881","CO-ALC-73043|2019|Ordinary election|2882","CO-ALC-73043|2015|Ordinary election|2883"],"shares":[[0.5055630478759272,0.4775792312879299],[0.43253058103975534,0.3153669724770642],[0.5542729850141758,0.44572701498582423]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":68.60301523777957,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[15.596330275229358,0,43.25305810397553,7.6452599388379205,31.53669724770642,0,0,0,0,0,1.9686544342507646],[0,0,44.572701498582425,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,55.427298501417575]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":54.7782874617737,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73055","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Armero (Guayabal)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.160488033786958,14.073482428115021,11.273841961852863],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73055|2023|Ordinary election|2884","CO-ALC-73055|2019|Ordinary election|2885","CO-ALC-73055|2015|Ordinary election|2886"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73055|2023|Ordinary election|2884","CO-ALC-73055|2019|Ordinary election|2885","CO-ALC-73055|2015|Ordinary election|2886"],"shares":[[0.4143594556546223,0.2327545753167527],[0.505111821086262,0.3643769968051118],[0.4303474114441417,0.3176089918256131]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":18.77139127554017,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,4.567495698420147,0,1.8301267010793054,0,0,93.60237760050056],[0,0,0,4.376996805111821,1.0223642172523961,3.258785942492013,0,0,0,4.39297124600639,86.94888178913737],[0,43.03474114441417,31.760899182561307,8.412806539509537,6.573569482288828,0.1362397820163488,0,0,0.4598092643051771,4.836512261580381,4.78542234332425]],"volatility_latest":9.792332268370616,"volatility_previous":85.28600560628878,"volatility_mean":47.5391689373297,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73067","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Ataco","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.5803266586693745,3.8677354709418843,26.458530432040366],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73067|2023|Ordinary election|2887","CO-ALC-73067|2019|Ordinary election|2888","CO-ALC-73067|2015|Ordinary election|2889"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73067|2023|Ordinary election|2887","CO-ALC-73067|2019|Ordinary election|2888","CO-ALC-73067|2015|Ordinary election|2889"],"shares":[[0.3227830580418935,0.28697979145519975],[0.306813627254509,0.2681362725450902],[0.5139283086302954,0.24934300430989173]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":70.22815160155886,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,19.184276091169142,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,80.81572390883086],[0,0,26.81362725450902,0,21.92384769539078,0.5511022044088176,0,0,0,8.867735470941884,41.8436873747495],[0,0,24.934300430989172,14.012404078629244,8.010091453800063,1.6503731735519815,51.39283086302954,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":38.97203653408136,"volatility_previous":66.50450591080195,"volatility_mean":52.738271222441654,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73124","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Cajamarca","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[24.91938734381298,25.002465726403,7.964145889140735],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73124|2023|Ordinary election|2890","CO-ALC-73124|2019|Ordinary election|2891","CO-ALC-73124|2015|Ordinary election|2892"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73124|2023|Ordinary election|2890","CO-ALC-73124|2019|Ordinary election|2891","CO-ALC-73124|2015|Ordinary election|2892"],"shares":[[0.5480652962515115,0.2988714228133817],[0.5060656869513759,0.2560410296873459],[0.3912013187718937,0.3115598598804863]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[54.80652962515115,0,4.615074566706973,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,40.57839580814188],[0,11.726994772660026,0,0,10.237696025249038,50.60656869513759,0,0,0,0,27.42874050695335],[0,31.15598598804863,39.120131877189365,0,0.8036266227076035,0,0,0,28.9202555120544,0,0]],"volatility_latest":72.57125949304665,"volatility_previous":87.46937860463237,"volatility_mean":80.02031904883951,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73148","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Carmen De Apicala","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[22.840010902153175,16.985138004246284,24.735729386892174],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73148|2023|Ordinary election|2893","CO-ALC-73148|2019|Ordinary election|2894","CO-ALC-73148|2015|Ordinary election|2895"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73148|2023|Ordinary election|2893","CO-ALC-73148|2019|Ordinary election|2894","CO-ALC-73148|2015|Ordinary election|2895"],"shares":[[0.5869446715726356,0.35854456255110384],[0.43736730360934184,0.267515923566879],[0.48784355179704014,0.2404862579281184]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0.3103054058468071,43.73673036093418,8.394577821329413,26.751592356687897,2.85807610648375,0,0,0,0,17.94871794871795],[0,48.784355179704015,21.053558844256518,5.126849894291754,24.04862579281184,0.9866102889358703,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":48.47404977385721,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73152","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Casabianca","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.040089086859687,29.044214985438174,34.729846865067906],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73152|2023|Ordinary election|2896","CO-ALC-73152|2019|Ordinary election|2897","CO-ALC-73152|2015|Ordinary election|2898"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73152|2023|Ordinary election|2896","CO-ALC-73152|2019|Ordinary election|2897","CO-ALC-73152|2015|Ordinary election|2898"],"shares":[[0.4729027468448404,0.2925018559762435],[0.6452210749271908,0.3547789250728091],[0.6694596937301358,0.32216122507945677]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[32.21612250794568,0,0,0,0.8379081190407397,0,0,0,0,0,66.94596937301358]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73168","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Chaparral","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.20758887456254,6.201201201201201,4.45249805850375],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73168|2023|Ordinary election|2899","CO-ALC-73168|2019|Ordinary election|2900","CO-ALC-73168|2015|Ordinary election|2901"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73168|2023|Ordinary election|2899","CO-ALC-73168|2019|Ordinary election|2900","CO-ALC-73168|2015|Ordinary election|2901"],"shares":[[0.4885798489592927,0.3665039602136673],[0.48648648648648646,0.42447447447447445],[0.492777633963241,0.44825265337820347]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":51.84918254525871,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,1.931931931931932,0.6656656656656657,4.049049049049049,0,0,0,93.35335335335334],[0,49.2777633963241,0,0,0,3.1685218741910433,0.07765984985762361,0,0,2.6507895418068856,44.82526533782035]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":54.43140914665636,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73200","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Coello","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.574534161490682,19.798994974874375,7.349505840071874],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73200|2023|Ordinary election|2902","CO-ALC-73200|2019|Ordinary election|2903","CO-ALC-73200|2015|Ordinary election|2904"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73200|2023|Ordinary election|2902","CO-ALC-73200|2019|Ordinary election|2903","CO-ALC-73200|2015|Ordinary election|2904"],"shares":[[0.24440993788819873,0.23866459627329192],[0.5525963149078728,0.35460636515912897],[0.38490566037735846,0.3114106019766397]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":64.90315213318046,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,13.338509316770187,23.866459627329192,0,0,0,0,7.857142857142857,0,0,54.93788819875776],[0,8.894472361809045,55.25963149078727,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,35.845896147403685],[0,29.95507637017071,38.490566037735846,0,0,0.4132973944294699,0,0,0,0,31.141060197663972]],"volatility_latest":31.393171863458075,"volatility_previous":21.473901402791135,"volatility_mean":26.433536633124604,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73217","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Coyaima","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2025,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,2.778926474237039,5.596084587681229],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2025-05-18 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73217|CO-ALC-73217-2025-05-18-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6789","CO-ALC-73217|2023|Ordinary election|2905","CO-ALC-73217|2019|Ordinary election|2906"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73217|CO-ALC-73217-2025-05-18-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6789","CO-ALC-73217|2023|Ordinary election|2905","CO-ALC-73217|2019|Ordinary election|2906","CO-ALC-73217|2015|Ordinary election|2907"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.3596890248945497,0.3318997601521793],[0.3426909225228553,0.286730076646043]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,17.0291952692085,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,82.9708047307915],[0,34.26909225228553,0,0,0,13.251454427925017,0,0,0,0,52.47945331978945]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":47.52054668021055,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73226","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Cunday","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.074255405956748,2.088554720133665,8.20763087843833],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73226|2023|Ordinary election|2908","CO-ALC-73226|2019|Ordinary election|2909","CO-ALC-73226|2015|Ordinary election|2910"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73226|2023|Ordinary election|2908","CO-ALC-73226|2019|Ordinary election|2909","CO-ALC-73226|2015|Ordinary election|2910"],"shares":[[0.3574051407588739,0.17666258669930643],[0.3558897243107769,0.3350041771094403],[0.4574090505767524,0.37533274179236914]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":38.5405862627101,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,35.74051407588739,0,11.077111383108935,0,0,0,0,0,53.18237454100367],[0,0,33.50041771094403,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,66.49958228905598],[16.21561668145519,0,37.53327417923691,0,0.08873114463176575,0,45.74090505767524,0,0,0,0.42147293700088734]],"volatility_latest":13.317207748052304,"volatility_previous":66.0781093520551,"volatility_mean":39.6976585500537,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73236","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Dolores","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.660474716202266,16.520369119963988,16.31566766952094],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73236|2023|Ordinary election|2911","CO-ALC-73236|2019|Ordinary election|2912","CO-ALC-73236|2015|Ordinary election|2913"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73236|2023|Ordinary election|2911","CO-ALC-73236|2019|Ordinary election|2912","CO-ALC-73236|2015|Ordinary election|2913"],"shares":[[0.42745098039215684,0.22084623323013416],[0.46320054017555706,0.29799684897591716],[0.4149502429993057,0.2517935663040963]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":5.080188336686753,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,13.68421052631579,0,42.745098039215684,1.217750257997936,22.084623323013417,0,0,0,0,20.268317853457173],[0,3.038487508440243,0,46.320054017555705,29.799684897591717,16.205266711681297,0,0,0,0,4.636506864731038],[0,22.14765100671141,41.49502429993057,0,25.17935663040963,0,11.177968062948391,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":32.156890617933804,"volatility_previous":71.78215586115013,"volatility_mean":51.96952323954197,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73268","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Espinal","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[19.259799728274544,2.9793479940258543,14.347969084032236],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73268|2023|Ordinary election|2914","CO-ALC-73268|2019|Ordinary election|2915","CO-ALC-73268|2015|Ordinary election|2916"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73268|2023|Ordinary election|2914","CO-ALC-73268|2019|Ordinary election|2915","CO-ALC-73268|2015|Ordinary election|2916"],"shares":[[0.4870175615156242,0.2944195642328788],[0.3271360148323634,0.2973425348921048],[0.5192676643095983,0.3757879734692759]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":30.577594282121478,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,8.161827605293615,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,91.83817239470639],[27.14374002163053,0,0,29.734253489210484,32.71360148323634,1.2102796518514705,0,0,0,0,9.198125354071175],[37.57879734692759,0,4.763470920353012,51.92676643095982,2.3515869100476894,0,0,3.3793783917118896,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":90.80187464592882,"volatility_previous":40.7704195791113,"volatility_mean":65.78614711252006,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73270","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Falan","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.75438596491228,5.8379466532460995,10.890543148607662],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73270|2023|Ordinary election|2917","CO-ALC-73270|2019|Ordinary election|2918","CO-ALC-73270|2015|Ordinary election|2919"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73270|2023|Ordinary election|2917","CO-ALC-73270|2019|Ordinary election|2918","CO-ALC-73270|2015|Ordinary election|2919"],"shares":[[0.5583625730994153,0.38081871345029245],[0.5103170608958228,0.4519375943633619],[0.3501516404742211,0.2412462089881445]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":32.53465055109018,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[24.12462089881445,35.01516404742211,20.43010752688172,18.775847808105873,1.6542597187758479,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73275","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Flandes","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.3045685279187822,14.606021780909675,2.9475197699496754],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73275|2023|Ordinary election|2920","CO-ALC-73275|2019|Ordinary election|2921","CO-ALC-73275|2015|Ordinary election|2922"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73275|2023|Ordinary election|2920","CO-ALC-73275|2019|Ordinary election|2921","CO-ALC-73275|2015|Ordinary election|2922"],"shares":[[0.3784459195626708,0.375400234283483],[0.42248558616271625,0.27642536835361947],[0.33824586628324943,0.3087706685837527]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":75.7035018599043,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0.7418976962124171,0,0,0,0,99.25810230378758],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,5.453235105701474,94.54676489429852],[0,30.87706685837527,33.824586628324944,0,24.020488856937455,2.0488856937455067,0,0,0.3145219266714594,0,8.914450035945363]],"volatility_latest":5.453235105701476,"volatility_previous":91.08554996405464,"volatility_mean":48.26939253487806,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73283","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Fresno","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.244143606078701,33.36388634280476,0.9038976064791342],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73283|2023|Ordinary election|2923","CO-ALC-73283|2019|Ordinary election|2924","CO-ALC-73283|2015|Ordinary election|2925"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73283|2023|Ordinary election|2923","CO-ALC-73283|2019|Ordinary election|2924","CO-ALC-73283|2015|Ordinary election|2925"],"shares":[[0.4450859380184485,0.35264450195766145],[0.6092051852821788,0.2755663218541312],[0.38310796153011784,0.3740689854653265]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":21.769790864317184,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[44.508593801844846,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,55.491406198155154],[60.92051852821788,0,0,0,27.55663218541312,0,0.9100432106848239,0,0,0,10.61280607568417],[37.40689854653265,0,38.310796153011786,0.45556439366548557,17.23913515077012,0.7809675319979753,2.0030370959577697,0,0.2820160532214911,0,3.5215850748427218]],"volatility_latest":44.878600122470985,"volatility_previous":40.92233801716968,"volatility_mean":42.90046906982033,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73319","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Guamo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.266674878364228,4.627490164241554,20.21730938324331],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73319|2023|Ordinary election|2926","CO-ALC-73319|2019|Ordinary election|2927","CO-ALC-73319|2015|Ordinary election|2928"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73319|2023|Ordinary election|2926","CO-ALC-73319|2019|Ordinary election|2927","CO-ALC-73319|2015|Ordinary election|2928"],"shares":[[0.4605530578308801,0.35788630904723784],[0.32842065821520017,0.2821457565727846],[0.5881798768998869,0.38600678306745384]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":52.15008542692333,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[46.05530578308801,0,0,0,1.1393730368910513,0,0,0,0,0,52.80532118002095],[28.214575657278463,0,32.842065821520016,0,23.7244738649847,1.74857927933554,0,1.6549053893711358,0.4808593018172735,4.408917754324611,6.925622931368263],[38.60067830674539,0,0,58.8179876899887,0,0.7348323074990579,0,0,1.8465016957668634,0,0]],"volatility_latest":63.72042837446223,"volatility_previous":70.5697327334052,"volatility_mean":67.14508055393372,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73347|2023|Ordinary election|2929","CO-ALC-73347|2019|Ordinary election|2930","CO-ALC-73347|2015|Ordinary election|2931"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73347|2023|Ordinary election|2929","CO-ALC-73347|2019|Ordinary election|2930","CO-ALC-73347|2015|Ordinary election|2931"],"shares":[[0.5884877556172684,0.34839686947740467],[0.5409252669039146,0.37859293731179855],[0.43560814529444136,0.3214089157952669]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73349","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Honda","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.27073776039708264,8.263614838200475,16.03510498687664],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73349|2023|Ordinary election|2932","CO-ALC-73349|2019|Ordinary election|2933","CO-ALC-73349|2015|Ordinary election|2934"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73349|2023|Ordinary election|2932","CO-ALC-73349|2019|Ordinary election|2933","CO-ALC-73349|2015|Ordinary election|2934"],"shares":[[0.3269910506129202,0.3242836730089494],[0.3466456195737964,0.26400947119179163],[0.453740157480315,0.29338910761154857]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":78.77481196806973,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,3.6306235201262824,0,34.66456195737964,25.193370165745858,0,0,2.612470402525651,0,0,33.898973954222576],[0,12.770669291338583,0,45.374015748031496,0,2.608267716535433,7.398293963254593,1.45997375328084,1.0498687664041995,0,29.338910761154857]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":30.905930008058384,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73352","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Icononzo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.747176368375328,12.430293218204717,5.713724720204205],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73352|2023|Ordinary election|2935","CO-ALC-73352|2019|Ordinary election|2936","CO-ALC-73352|2015|Ordinary election|2937"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73352|2023|Ordinary election|2935","CO-ALC-73352|2019|Ordinary election|2936","CO-ALC-73352|2015|Ordinary election|2937"],"shares":[[0.4238053866203302,0.2163336229365769],[0.48156143191221445,0.35725849973016727],[0.424307873551934,0.36717062634989195]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":16.256168707464834,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,42.38053866203302,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,57.61946133796699],[5.2887209929843495,0,48.156143191221446,1.385141212448282,2.0147508544702286,0,0,0,0,0,43.1552437488757],[0,5.85116827017475,36.7170626349892,14.843903396819163,0,0,42.4307873551934,0,0,0,0.1570783428234832]],"volatility_latest":56.84475625112431,"volatility_previous":61.74071780973904,"volatility_mean":59.292737030431674,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73408","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Lerida","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[28.048408420624426,10.359726688102892,3.5524703960800323],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73408|2023|Ordinary election|2938","CO-ALC-73408|2019|Ordinary election|2939","CO-ALC-73408|2015|Ordinary election|2940"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73408|2023|Ordinary election|2938","CO-ALC-73408|2019|Ordinary election|2939","CO-ALC-73408|2015|Ordinary election|2940"],"shares":[[0.5122546527000915,0.23177056849384725],[0.3972065916398714,0.29360932475884244],[0.31870151082074316,0.28317680685994284]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73411|2023|Ordinary election|2941","CO-ALC-73411|2019|Ordinary election|2942","CO-ALC-73411|2015|Ordinary election|2943"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73411|2023|Ordinary election|2941","CO-ALC-73411|2019|Ordinary election|2942","CO-ALC-73411|2015|Ordinary election|2943"],"shares":[[0.43333333333333335,0.28281335522714834],[0.38519417475728157,0.35703883495145633],[0.5269402839914413,0.2540361797315697]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":36.975500384277126,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,8.002189381499726,0,0,0,0,0,2.9720853858784895,0,0,89.0257252326218],[35.70388349514563,0.8616504854368932,38.519417475728154,1.395631067961165,2.870145631067961,0,0,0,0,0,20.649271844660195],[0,0,0.7521234519872917,0,11.78758996304221,2.411982104648901,3.6309408026972703,0,0,3.3197173053232185,78.09764637230111]],"volatility_latest":78.48907766990293,"volatility_previous":75.72845907228455,"volatility_mean":77.10876837109373,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73443","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Mariquita","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.6300166231298974,5.49847792998478,46.14884051112162],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73443|2023|Ordinary election|2944","CO-ALC-73443|2019|Ordinary election|2945","CO-ALC-73443|2015|Ordinary election|2946"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73443|2023|Ordinary election|2944","CO-ALC-73443|2019|Ordinary election|2945","CO-ALC-73443|2015|Ordinary election|2946"],"shares":[[0.2575397767751128,0.2312396105438138],[0.2959157787924911,0.24093099949264332],[0.7133222905821107,0.25183388547089447]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":60.78781298007232,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,16.985276656376158,0,0,0,0,4.1439088102588455,0,0,0,78.87081453336499],[0,3.4817351598173514,29.59157787924911,0,24.09309994926433,23.85210553018772,8.39041095890411,4.008117706747844,0,0,6.582952815829528],[0,0,0,0,25.183388547089447,0,0,0,0.3312825366777094,0,74.48532891623285]],"volatility_latest":85.79140321409427,"volatility_previous":69.32394723490614,"volatility_mean":77.5576752245002,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73449","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Melgar","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2025,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,4.222461147492915,25.12431160776346],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2025-08-17 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73449|CO-ALC-73449-2025-08-17-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6785","CO-ALC-73449|2023|Ordinary election|2947","CO-ALC-73449|2019|Ordinary election|2948"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73449|CO-ALC-73449-2025-08-17-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6785","CO-ALC-73449|2023|Ordinary election|2947","CO-ALC-73449|2019|Ordinary election|2948","CO-ALC-73449|2015|Ordinary election|2949"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.38793861792591144,0.34571400645098227],[0.6099021547345346,0.35865903865689996]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,34.57140064509823,0.855243866679699,0,0,64.57335548822206],[60.99021547345345,0,0,3.143880660856547,0,0,0,0,0,0,35.865903865689994]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":64.13409613431,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73461","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Murillo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.665389527458487,3.8925652004671036,8.680555555555557],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73461|2023|Ordinary election|2950","CO-ALC-73461|2019|Ordinary election|2951","CO-ALC-73461|2015|Ordinary election|2952"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73461|2023|Ordinary election|2950","CO-ALC-73461|2019|Ordinary election|2951","CO-ALC-73461|2015|Ordinary election|2952"],"shares":[[0.5627926777352065,0.4261387824606216],[0.5165434021019852,0.47761775009731416],[0.5434027777777778,0.4565972222222222]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":48.82470583914611,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73483","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Natagaima","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.614318206433445,3.3799155021124463,20.57181148090239],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73483|2023|Ordinary election|2953","CO-ALC-73483|2019|Ordinary election|2954","CO-ALC-73483|2015|Ordinary election|2955"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73483|2023|Ordinary election|2953","CO-ALC-73483|2019|Ordinary election|2954","CO-ALC-73483|2015|Ordinary election|2955"],"shares":[[0.517708220513376,0.3515650384490415],[0.2918427039324017,0.25804354891127723],[0.43265579629215994,0.226937681483136]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":34.8012663870798,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,2.2311274775262646,2.4585725116430197,0,0,0,95.31030001083072],[0,0,0,0,25.804354891127723,0,12.91301050807063,0.31415881269634927,0,15.404614884627884,45.56386090347742],[0,43.26557962921599,0.4802322984141166,20.10274737547465,0,0,0,1.4518650882287245,0.06700915791824882,1.150323877596605,33.482242573151666]],"volatility_latest":51.97756658487956,"volatility_previous":65.05327473655538,"volatility_mean":58.51542066071747,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73504","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Ortega","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[37.191608804845615,14.968571846221309,11.287244972846032],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73504|2023|Ordinary election|2956","CO-ALC-73504|2019|Ordinary election|2957","CO-ALC-73504|2015|Ordinary election|2958"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73504|2023|Ordinary election|2956","CO-ALC-73504|2019|Ordinary election|2957","CO-ALC-73504|2015|Ordinary election|2958"],"shares":[[0.6059240655931452,0.23400797754468905],[0.5481654728840812,0.39847975442186817],[0.44708645237046823,0.3342140026420079]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,5.008125276998079,0,0,0,5.76894666863643,23.400797754468904,0,0,0,65.82213029989659],[39.847975442186815,4.597281099254495,54.816547288408124,0,0.35082590264581204,0,0,0,0,0,0.3873702675047508],[44.708645237046824,16.05019815059445,0,0,0.6311463378834581,0.15411712901805372,0.6971965360340525,0,0,0,37.75869660942316]],"volatility_latest":95.01534863324075,"volatility_previous":54.816547288408124,"volatility_mean":74.91594796082444,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73520","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Palocabildo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.14010507880910694,12.571113965865294,1.3780337309749058],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73520|2023|Ordinary election|2959","CO-ALC-73520|2019|Ordinary election|2960","CO-ALC-73520|2015|Ordinary election|2961"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73520|2023|Ordinary election|2959","CO-ALC-73520|2019|Ordinary election|2960","CO-ALC-73520|2015|Ordinary election|2961"],"shares":[[0.4868651488616462,0.4854640980735552],[0.5628555698293265,0.4371444301706735],[0.3663101604278075,0.35252982311805847]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":80.03399694928729,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[36.63101604278075,0,35.252982311805845,0,2.9206088029617443,0,25.195392842451668,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73547","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Piedras","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[29.331713244228432,6.111894687353079,37.952755905511815],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73547|2023|Ordinary election|2962","CO-ALC-73547|2019|Ordinary election|2963","CO-ALC-73547|2015|Ordinary election|2964"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73547|2023|Ordinary election|2962","CO-ALC-73547|2019|Ordinary election|2963","CO-ALC-73547|2015|Ordinary election|2964"],"shares":[[0.593681652490887,0.30036452004860265],[0.4167842031029619,0.3556652562294311],[0.684251968503937,0.3047244094488189]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[3.0133657351154315,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,96.98663426488457],[0,0,0.047014574518100614,21.01551480959097,1.3634226610249178,0,41.67842031029619,0,0,0,35.895627644569814],[0,68.4251968503937,0.07874015748031496,30.47244094488189,1.0236220472440944,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":64.10437235543019,"volatility_previous":77.91384856864683,"volatility_mean":71.0091104620385,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73555","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Planadas","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.6868512110726641,6.84122295840983,8.739681729214539],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73555|2023|Ordinary election|2965","CO-ALC-73555|2019|Ordinary election|2966","CO-ALC-73555|2015|Ordinary election|2967"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73555|2023|Ordinary election|2965","CO-ALC-73555|2019|Ordinary election|2966","CO-ALC-73555|2015|Ordinary election|2967"],"shares":[[0.4338235294117647,0.41695501730103807],[0.4075197573241798,0.33910752774008146],[0.5436984086460727,0.4563015913539273]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":80.30777106456,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,10.286908881199539,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,89.71309111880046],[2.9775684521433705,18.456134748942283,2.402809930550012,0,0,0,40.751975732417975,0,0,0,35.411511135946355],[0,45.63015913539273,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,54.36984086460727]],"volatility_latest":54.30157998285411,"volatility_previous":46.13235411511136,"volatility_mean":50.21696704898274,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73563","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Prado","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.014068863383926,2.4809160305343525,3.618297712785896],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73563|2023|Ordinary election|2968","CO-ALC-73563|2019|Ordinary election|2969","CO-ALC-73563|2015|Ordinary election|2970"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73563|2023|Ordinary election|2968","CO-ALC-73563|2019|Ordinary election|2969","CO-ALC-73563|2015|Ordinary election|2970"],"shares":[[0.4529803776379119,0.33283968900407257],[0.4318181818181818,0.4070090215128383],[0.35826771653543305,0.3220847394075741]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":58.42727050765374,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[5.849685301740096,2.147352832284339,0,12.088115512773047,0,0,0,0,0,0,79.91484635320252],[43.18181818181818,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,56.81818181818181],[0.1124859392575928,3.5995500562429696,35.826771653543304,32.20847394075741,0,0,0.8623922009748781,0,0,26.827896512935883,0.562429696287964]],"volatility_latest":37.33213288007809,"volatility_previous":99.32508436445444,"volatility_mean":68.32860862226627,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73585","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Purificacion","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.167007546371394,31.06676342525399,11.102040816326536],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73585|2023|Ordinary election|2971","CO-ALC-73585|2019|Ordinary election|2972","CO-ALC-73585|2015|Ordinary election|2973"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73585|2023|Ordinary election|2971","CO-ALC-73585|2019|Ordinary election|2972","CO-ALC-73585|2015|Ordinary election|2973"],"shares":[[0.39015445376965935,0.30848437830594544],[0.5923802612481858,0.28171262699564587],[0.5369202226345083,0.42589981447124303]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":23.347811814841567,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73616","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Rioblanco","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.036423841059602,3.1937394247038924,3.043234138124646],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73616|2023|Ordinary election|2974","CO-ALC-73616|2019|Ordinary election|2975","CO-ALC-73616|2015|Ordinary election|2976"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73616|2023|Ordinary election|2974","CO-ALC-73616|2019|Ordinary election|2975","CO-ALC-73616|2015|Ordinary election|2976"],"shares":[[0.4776490066225165,0.40728476821192056],[0.45917935702199664,0.42724196277495774],[0.47153284671532847,0.44110050533408196]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":72.57850227070304,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,40.728476821192054,0,0,0,0,0,0.1287711552612215,0.6622516556291391,0,58.480500367917585],[0,45.917935702199664,42.72419627749577,0,11.357868020304569,0,0,0,0,0,0],[0,44.1100505334082,0,0,0.4042672655811342,7.310499719258844,0,0,0,1.0218978102189782,47.153284671532845]],"volatility_latest":59.271523178807946,"volatility_previous":55.48568220101067,"volatility_mean":57.37860268990931,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73622","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Roncesvalles","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.1499812523434514,12.391304347826093,0.6740681998413969],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73622|2023|Ordinary election|2977","CO-ALC-73622|2019|Ordinary election|2978","CO-ALC-73622|2015|Ordinary election|2979"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73622|2023|Ordinary election|2977","CO-ALC-73622|2019|Ordinary election|2978","CO-ALC-73622|2015|Ordinary election|2979"],"shares":[[0.3554555680539932,0.3539557555305587],[0.5619565217391305,0.43804347826086953],[0.29103885804916735,0.28429817605075336]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":80.6260656213098,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[43.80434782608695,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,56.19565217391305],[0,23.830293417922285,0.07930214115781126,28.429817605075336,0,29.103885804916732,18.556701030927837,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73624","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Rovira","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.96874234881254,2.942563425445627,22.738871562234195],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73624|2023|Ordinary election|2980","CO-ALC-73624|2019|Ordinary election|2981","CO-ALC-73624|2015|Ordinary election|2982"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73624|2023|Ordinary election|2980","CO-ALC-73624|2019|Ordinary election|2981","CO-ALC-73624|2015|Ordinary election|2982"],"shares":[[0.5316249081857505,0.42193748469762504],[0.28793737621427895,0.2585117419598227],[0.5518382005481524,0.3244494849258104]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":51.31049203427685,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[25.85117419598227,0,28.793737621427898,0,2.867113081203433,0,7.592190889370933,0,0.21691973969631237,0,34.678864472319155],[0,0,0,0,12.371231452603723,0,0,0,0,0,87.62876854739628]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":62.45402244647741,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73671","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Saldaña","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[52.92620865139949,9.920454545454547,7.800650054171179],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73671|2023|Ordinary election|2983","CO-ALC-73671|2019|Ordinary election|2984","CO-ALC-73671|2015|Ordinary election|2985"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73671|2023|Ordinary election|2983","CO-ALC-73671|2019|Ordinary election|2984","CO-ALC-73671|2015|Ordinary election|2985"],"shares":[[0.7359221152782388,0.20666002876424383],[0.4144318181818182,0.31522727272727274],[0.36788250872757916,0.28987600818586734]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[31.522727272727273,0,0,0,0,1.1590909090909092,0,0,0,0,67.31818181818181],[0,0,28.987600818586735,21.150836643794392,0,0,7.475622968580715,0,0,5.597688696280246,36.788250872757914]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":63.211749127242086,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73675","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"San Antonio","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.924364896073904,10.952870356775804,2.0621827411167573],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73675|2023|Ordinary election|2986","CO-ALC-73675|2019|Ordinary election|2987","CO-ALC-73675|2015|Ordinary election|2988"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73675|2023|Ordinary election|2986","CO-ALC-73675|2019|Ordinary election|2987","CO-ALC-73675|2015|Ordinary election|2988"],"shares":[[0.5089491916859122,0.4297055427251732],[0.5260607840258406,0.4165320804580825],[0.5019035532994924,0.48128172588832485]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":58.766508406056204,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,4.041570438799076,0,2.0929561200923787,0,0,93.86547344110855],[0,0,0,0,41.65320804580825,0,0,0,0,0,58.346791954191744],[50.19035532994924,0,48.128172588832484,0,1.6814720812182742,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":41.653208045808256,"volatility_previous":98.31852791878173,"volatility_mean":69.98586798229499,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73678","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"San Luis","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[28.222033177371337,0.5499424478833603,5.908127208480565],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73678|2023|Ordinary election|2989","CO-ALC-73678|2019|Ordinary election|2990","CO-ALC-73678|2015|Ordinary election|2991"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73678|2023|Ordinary election|2989","CO-ALC-73678|2019|Ordinary election|2990","CO-ALC-73678|2015|Ordinary election|2991"],"shares":[[0.6411101658868568,0.35888983411314335],[0.45555697659547256,0.45005755211663895],[0.4050883392226148,0.34600706713780915]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":11.554923191820665,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,45.005755211663896,45.555697659547256,0,0,0,0,6.75278168563755,0,0,2.6857654431512983],[40.50883392226148,0,34.600706713780916,14.247349823321555,10.26148409893993,0.38162544169611307,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":65.39929328621908,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73686","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Santa Isabel","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.170202389661057,6.529209621993125,1.8701870187018699],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73686|2023|Ordinary election|2992","CO-ALC-73686|2019|Ordinary election|2993","CO-ALC-73686|2015|Ordinary election|2994"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73686|2023|Ordinary election|2992","CO-ALC-73686|2019|Ordinary election|2993","CO-ALC-73686|2015|Ordinary election|2994"],"shares":[[0.5108510119483053,0.4891489880516947],[0.3846153846153846,0.3193232883954533],[0.3355335533553355,0.31683168316831684]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":82.76048488867622,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[31.932328839545335,0,0,0,29.606132698916205,0,0,0,0,0,38.46153846153846],[33.55335533553355,4.3179317931793175,0,0,30.445544554455445,0,0,0,0,0,31.683168316831683]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":6.778370144706776,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73770","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Suarez","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.3325196636832146,9.235294117647062,6.09013398294762],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73770|2023|Ordinary election|2995","CO-ALC-73770|2019|Ordinary election|2996","CO-ALC-73770|2015|Ordinary election|2997"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73770|2023|Ordinary election|2995","CO-ALC-73770|2019|Ordinary election|2996","CO-ALC-73770|2015|Ordinary election|2997"],"shares":[[0.3770002712232167,0.3536750745863846],[0.32676470588235296,0.23441176470588235],[0.5304506699147381,0.4695493300852619]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":76.10443284100596,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,2.3596419853539463,0,24.165988608624897,35.36750745863846,0,0,0,0,0,38.1068619473827],[0,0,0,23.441176470588236,32.6764705882353,0,0,0,0,0,43.882352941176464],[53.04506699147381,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,46.95493300852619]],"volatility_latest":5.775490993793767,"volatility_previous":56.117647058823536,"volatility_mean":30.94656902630865,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73854","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Valle De San Juan","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[61.111111111111114,21.473087818696882,28.303012227855653],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73854|2023|Ordinary election|2998","CO-ALC-73854|2019|Ordinary election|2999","CO-ALC-73854|2015|Ordinary election|3000"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73854|2023|Ordinary election|2998","CO-ALC-73854|2019|Ordinary election|2999","CO-ALC-73854|2015|Ordinary election|3000"],"shares":[[0.7650527622594662,0.15394165114835506],[0.6073654390934844,0.3926345609065156],[0.5639725618848792,0.2809424396063227]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[76.50527622594662,0,0,0,15.394165114835506,0,0,0,0,0,8.100558659217876],[60.73654390934844,0,0,0,39.26345609065156,0,0,0,0,0,0],[56.39725618848792,0,28.09424396063227,0.6263048016701461,14.882195049209663,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":23.869290975816053,"volatility_previous":28.720548762302414,"volatility_mean":26.294919869059235,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73861","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Venadillo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.1865874143946264,27.84590775793122,3.481836874571627],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73861|2023|Ordinary election|3001","CO-ALC-73861|2019|Ordinary election|3002","CO-ALC-73861|2015|Ordinary election|3003"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73861|2023|Ordinary election|3001","CO-ALC-73861|2019|Ordinary election|3002","CO-ALC-73861|2015|Ordinary election|3003"],"shares":[[0.3347977774906319,0.2929319033466856],[0.5221274326846175,0.24366835510530524],[0.5043180260452365,0.4694996572995202]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":43.93045768263348,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,9.936684326140329,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,90.06331567385968],[0,24.366835510530525,0,0,16.80885097307385,0.11996800853105838,1.8661690215942415,1.6928818981604905,0,0,55.145294588109834],[0,50.43180260452365,0,46.94996572995202,2.618231665524332,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":34.918021085749835,"volatility_previous":73.01493282394514,"volatility_mean":53.966476954847494,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73870","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Villahermosa","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[25.962228065981353,37.20983158852981,1.0595130748422008],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73870|2023|Ordinary election|3004","CO-ALC-73870|2019|Ordinary election|3005","CO-ALC-73870|2015|Ordinary election|3006"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73870|2023|Ordinary election|3004","CO-ALC-73870|2019|Ordinary election|3005","CO-ALC-73870|2015|Ordinary election|3006"],"shares":[[0.5527133636146306,0.2930910829548171],[0.6301775147928994,0.2580791989076013],[0.3913435527502254,0.3807484220018034]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-73873","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Villarrica","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.021276595744684,6.3475177304964525,34.317223483619856],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-73873|2023|Ordinary election|3007","CO-ALC-73873|2019|Ordinary election|3008","CO-ALC-73873|2015|Ordinary election|3009"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-73873|2023|Ordinary election|3007","CO-ALC-73873|2019|Ordinary election|3008","CO-ALC-73873|2015|Ordinary election|3009"],"shares":[[0.4524405506883605,0.28222778473091364],[0.324822695035461,0.26134751773049647],[0.560817385663315,0.21764515082711644]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":22.256281875211336,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[45.24405506883605,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,54.75594493116396],[15.24822695035461,32.4822695035461,19.574468085106382,3.8297872340425534,26.134751773049647,0.6028368794326241,1.4893617021276595,0,0,0,0.6382978723404256],[10.249756730457348,56.081738566331495,21.764515082711643,0,6.811547194291275,0,0,0,0,0,5.092442426208239]],"volatility_latest":84.11347517730496,"volatility_previous":30.24366061425847,"volatility_mean":57.17856789578172,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76001","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Cali","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.866685606733192,13.876205292959447,13.497316392332198],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76001|2023|Ordinary election|3010","CO-ALC-76001|2019|Ordinary election|3011","CO-ALC-76001|2015|Ordinary election|3012"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76001|2023|Ordinary election|3010","CO-ALC-76001|2019|Ordinary election|3011","CO-ALC-76001|2015|Ordinary election|3012"],"shares":[[0.45265243794168825,0.3139855818743563],[0.4202563702570027,0.2814943173274082],[0.40281452276738117,0.2678413588440592]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":30.83697704419516,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,3.0721707148769797,0.6144341429753959,0,0.2890876102699884,96.02430753187764],[2.3959589455107664,26.784135884405917,23.1563296387533,0,0,3.516330975241555,0,0.8536818732705387,2.660522870655274,0.35158753542453247,40.281452276738115]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":58.8150259700165,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76020","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Alcala","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.1836022677714837,39.35298346513299,20.411208754767035],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76020|2023|Ordinary election|3013","CO-ALC-76020|2019|Ordinary election|3014","CO-ALC-76020|2015|Ordinary election|3015"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76020|2023|Ordinary election|3013","CO-ALC-76020|2019|Ordinary election|3014","CO-ALC-76020|2015|Ordinary election|3015"],"shares":[[0.5119930222416049,0.4801569995638901],[0.6641265276779295,0.27059669302659956],[0.48234123694246395,0.2782291493947936]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":21.214113621602536,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76036","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Andalucia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[27.068772111485032,23.08731633170073,0.4351535836177405],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76036|2023|Ordinary election|3016","CO-ALC-76036|2019|Ordinary election|3017","CO-ALC-76036|2015|Ordinary election|3018"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76036|2023|Ordinary election|3016","CO-ALC-76036|2019|Ordinary election|3017","CO-ALC-76036|2015|Ordinary election|3018"],"shares":[[0.6170506514798516,0.34636293036500126],[0.5088667454821821,0.2779935821651748],[0.4191126279863481,0.4147610921501707]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,34.63629303650013,61.70506514798516,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,3.658641815514712],[0,27.79935821651748,0,0,0,50.88667454821821,0,0,0,0,21.31396723526431],[0,0,16.612627986348123,0,0,41.47610921501707,0,0,0,41.91126279863481,0]],"volatility_latest":68.54199996796781,"volatility_previous":58.52389078498293,"volatility_mean":63.53294537647537,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76041","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Ansermanuevo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.0651945320715,5.744504355039403,17.96996374935267],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76041|2023|Ordinary election|3019","CO-ALC-76041|2019|Ordinary election|3020","CO-ALC-76041|2015|Ordinary election|3021"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76041|2023|Ordinary election|3019","CO-ALC-76041|2019|Ordinary election|3020","CO-ALC-76041|2015|Ordinary election|3021"],"shares":[[0.5094637223974763,0.3288117770767613],[0.5113023641642472,0.4538573206138532],[0.4692905230450544,0.28959088555152773]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":28.20267799655005,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[50.94637223974763,0,0,0,0,32.88117770767613,0,0,0,0,16.172450052576234],[45.38573206138532,0,0,0,0,51.13023641642472,0,0,3.4840315221899627,0,0],[0,0,46.92905230450544,0,24.111859140341792,28.95908855515277,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":21.73309023093855,"volatility_previous":71.04091144484724,"volatility_mean":46.3870008378929,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76054","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Argelia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[30.661383724474245,9.364445809026712,12.637828668363014],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76054|2023|Ordinary election|3022","CO-ALC-76054|2019|Ordinary election|3023","CO-ALC-76054|2015|Ordinary election|3024"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76054|2023|Ordinary election|3022","CO-ALC-76054|2019|Ordinary election|3023","CO-ALC-76054|2015|Ordinary election|3024"],"shares":[[0.5132581530021335,0.20664431575739106],[0.5406816088424931,0.44703715075222594],[0.563189143341815,0.4368108566581849]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[20.664431575739105,10.911307528192625,51.32581530021335,1.1886619932947273,13.380067052727826,0,0,0,0,0,2.529716549832368],[0,0,54.06816088424931,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,45.93183911575069],[56.31891433418151,0,43.68108566581849,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":46.144468149954285,"volatility_previous":56.31891433418151,"volatility_mean":51.231691242067896,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76100","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Bolivar","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.840710177544388,10.462845985988281,5.866503368034294],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76100|2023|Ordinary election|3025","CO-ALC-76100|2019|Ordinary election|3026","CO-ALC-76100|2015|Ordinary election|3027"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76100|2023|Ordinary election|3025","CO-ALC-76100|2019|Ordinary election|3026","CO-ALC-76100|2015|Ordinary election|3027"],"shares":[[0.5441360340085022,0.41572893223305823],[0.5523142299299414,0.4476857700700586],[0.4069810165339865,0.34831598285364357]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":42.850348804367265,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,54.413603400850214,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,45.586396599149786],[55.23142299299414,0,44.76857700700586,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[34.83159828536436,0,40.69810165339865,2.4372320881812617,10.33680342927128,11.696264543784446,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":55.23142299299414,"volatility_previous":24.47030006123699,"volatility_mean":39.85086152711557,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76109","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Buenaventura","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[22.75778963677053,2.2562755904151466,6.951963486827239],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76109|2023|Ordinary election|3028","CO-ALC-76109|2019|Ordinary election|3029","CO-ALC-76109|2015|Ordinary election|3030"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76109|2023|Ordinary election|3028","CO-ALC-76109|2019|Ordinary election|3029","CO-ALC-76109|2015|Ordinary election|3030"],"shares":[[0.4273389162860875,0.19976101991838224],[0.2450892317260681,0.22252647582191665],[0.30334854715531656,0.23382891228704417]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":24.866235960652073,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,1.755896023411947,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,98.24410397658806],[3.166732892213603,0.6271271357738887,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,19.880621253217697,76.3255187187948],[0,21.045686655519905,30.334854715531655,2.207962402277554,12.536490577974604,8.73333634597135,0.5992137014776989,0.2512540105743594,0,23.382891228704416,0.9083103619684577]],"volatility_latest":23.047354145431314,"volatility_previous":78.58394124903995,"volatility_mean":50.81564769723563,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76111","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Buga","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.882019325024505,22.60723993303692,0.7694092174451015],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76111|2023|Ordinary election|3031","CO-ALC-76111|2019|Ordinary election|3032","CO-ALC-76111|2015|Ordinary election|3033"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76111|2023|Ordinary election|3031","CO-ALC-76111|2019|Ordinary election|3032","CO-ALC-76111|2015|Ordinary election|3033"],"shares":[[0.22160761798067496,0.17278742473042993],[0.47662592479254046,0.25055352546217124],[0.3378054438601918,0.3301113516857408]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":51.058377516648555,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.6774261307940065,0,15.827615179946786,0,0,0,14.665312981375157,0,0,0,68.82964570788405],[0,0,0,0,0,0,21.537990747574387,0,1.1430525804186993,0,77.31895667200692],[0,0,0,6.899551500154655,0,7.404113826167646,0,0.13145685122177544,0.7133467367769873,0,84.85153108567894]],"volatility_latest":16.505041310740793,"volatility_previous":21.9676965912161,"volatility_mean":19.236368950978445,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76113","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Bugalagrande","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.1702694699437366,19.053482108503275,7.580098984110446],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76113|2023|Ordinary election|3034","CO-ALC-76113|2019|Ordinary election|3035","CO-ALC-76113|2015|Ordinary election|3036"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76113|2023|Ordinary election|3034","CO-ALC-76113|2019|Ordinary election|3035","CO-ALC-76113|2015|Ordinary election|3036"],"shares":[[0.3190701806336985,0.3173674859342612],[0.5118122354751828,0.32127741439015006],[0.34253711904141704,0.2667361292003126]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":67.11891893535865,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,31.907018063369854,0,0,0,4.41220017767249,0,0,1.1548711874444773,0,62.52591057151318],[0,51.18122354751828,9.588303193535975,32.127741439015004,0,0,0,0.15390534821085033,0,0,6.948826471719893],[8.917252756794305,34.2537119041417,26.673612920031257,6.216896761309369,0,2.10992445949466,0,0,0,21.828601198228707,0]],"volatility_latest":61.144155464910256,"volatility_previous":49.941088141012955,"volatility_mean":55.542621802961605,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76122","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Caicedonia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.859106529209619,60.34664789723737,18.23120830754418],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76122|2023|Ordinary election|3037","CO-ALC-76122|2019|Ordinary election|3038","CO-ALC-76122|2015|Ordinary election|3039"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76122|2023|Ordinary election|3037","CO-ALC-76122|2019|Ordinary election|3038","CO-ALC-76122|2015|Ordinary election|3039"],"shares":[[0.3577701412752959,0.24917907598319972],[0.7824212563786732,0.1789547774062995],[0.5911560415377209,0.4088439584622791]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,3.932798778159603,0,0,0,0,0,96.06720122184039],[78.24212563786732,2.1731479852190745,0,0,0,1.689248636283653,17.89547774062995,0,0,0,0],[59.11560415377209,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,40.88439584622791,0]],"volatility_latest":100.0,"volatility_previous":40.88439584622791,"volatility_mean":70.44219792311395,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76126","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Calima (Darien)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.904114577011775,1.143437936729768,20.245719513789048],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76126|2023|Ordinary election|3040","CO-ALC-76126|2019|Ordinary election|3041","CO-ALC-76126|2015|Ordinary election|3042"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76126|2023|Ordinary election|3040","CO-ALC-76126|2019|Ordinary election|3041","CO-ALC-76126|2015|Ordinary election|3042"],"shares":[[0.3720111664036898,0.27297002063357206],[0.3350273154618219,0.3235929360945242],[0.5626715462031107,0.3602143510652202]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":58.4496396069755,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0.32770967350406605,0,4.430149289962374,0,27.297002063357205,0,0,0,0,67.94513897317637],[0,4.700800406555711,0,0,32.35929360945242,33.50273154618219,0,0,0,0,29.43717443780968],[0,0.14377205594039993,56.26715462031107,0,0,36.02143510652202,1.0848255130048359,0,4.077898313945889,2.404914390275781,0]],"volatility_latest":42.938113825329054,"volatility_previous":66.35349639787741,"volatility_mean":54.64580511160323,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76130","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Candelaria","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.988349828131128,5.587568951930653,29.11226081957789],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76130|2023|Ordinary election|3043","CO-ALC-76130|2019|Ordinary election|3044","CO-ALC-76130|2015|Ordinary election|3045"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76130|2023|Ordinary election|3043","CO-ALC-76130|2019|Ordinary election|3044","CO-ALC-76130|2015|Ordinary election|3045"],"shares":[[0.5247421966918125,0.37485869841050135],[0.37487687155240346,0.3190011820330969],[0.5606197476116175,0.2694971394158386]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":32.097466677921695,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[4.314420803782506,0,0,37.487687155240344,0,0.8766745468873128,8.759357762017336,0,0,0,48.5618597320725],[26.94971394158386,0,0,0,0,15.677096164901043,0,1.3112151323533436,0,0,56.06197476116175]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":46.24704491725768,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76147","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Cartago","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2026-09-20 special; 2027-10-31 ordinary cycle expected","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.252281231536799,3.7108812863365124,17.765237923720335],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. A Cartago mayoral by-election is scheduled for 20 September 2026; this row retains the 2027 ordinary cycle.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76147|2023|Ordinary election|3046","CO-ALC-76147|2019|Ordinary election|3047","CO-ALC-76147|2015|Ordinary election|3048"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76147|2023|Ordinary election|3046","CO-ALC-76147|2019|Ordinary election|3047","CO-ALC-76147|2015|Ordinary election|3048"],"shares":[[0.36841068732357385,0.3258878750082059],[0.3378168351977282,0.30070802233436306],[0.5313362948733341,0.35368391563613083]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":72.79421541402466,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,27.417157549360095,0,3.898919738281175,0,33.78168351977282,30.070802233436307,0,0,4.831436959149605],[2.6313683115219915,0,3.103613879217193,0,35.36839156361308,2.2831872573738345,53.133629487333415,1.386721094969384,2.093088405971105,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":57.82906176775943,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76233","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Dagua","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.035971223021583,4.4374933729191,17.187500000000004],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76233|2023|Ordinary election|3049","CO-ALC-76233|2019|Ordinary election|3050","CO-ALC-76233|2015|Ordinary election|3051"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76233|2023|Ordinary election|3049","CO-ALC-76233|2019|Ordinary election|3050","CO-ALC-76233|2015|Ordinary election|3051"],"shares":[[0.3362073699818771,0.28584765775166127],[0.45509489979853673,0.41071996606934574],[0.45998201438848924,0.2881070143884892]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":69.6420962715566,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.4558185512658575,0,0,0,2.696468779175133,4.35498929100994,0,0,0,0,92.49272337854906],[0,0.49305481921323296,0,41.071996606934576,0,0,0,0,0,0,58.43494857385219],[45.99820143884892,4.3390287769784175,0,19.587455035971225,0,0,0,0,0,1.264613309352518,28.81070143884892]],"volatility_latest":41.565051426147804,"volatility_previous":51.108788705966624,"volatility_mean":46.33692006605722,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76243","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"El Aguila","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.128861429832305,13.764474546646277,43.01561216105176],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76243|2023|Ordinary election|3052","CO-ALC-76243|2019|Ordinary election|3053","CO-ALC-76243|2015|Ordinary election|3054"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76243|2023|Ordinary election|3052","CO-ALC-76243|2019|Ordinary election|3053","CO-ALC-76243|2015|Ordinary election|3054"],"shares":[[0.5556045895851721,0.42431597528684906],[0.41184181778457507,0.2741970723181123],[0.7150780608052588,0.2849219391947411]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":18.45889781000778,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,55.56045895851721,0,0,0,2.0079435127978815,0,0,0,42.431597528684904],[27.41970723181123,0,41.18418177845751,0,8.935984269171946,1.6167795499235307,0,20.843347170635788,0,0,0],[28.492193919474115,0,71.50780608052588,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":58.81581822154249,"volatility_previous":31.396110989731262,"volatility_mean":45.10596460563688,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76246","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"El Cairo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[46.86716791979949,0.8219954648526056,9.903713892709767],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76246|2023|Ordinary election|3055","CO-ALC-76246|2019|Ordinary election|3056","CO-ALC-76246|2015|Ordinary election|3057"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76246|2023|Ordinary election|3055","CO-ALC-76246|2019|Ordinary election|3056","CO-ALC-76246|2015|Ordinary election|3057"],"shares":[[0.732386521860206,0.2637148426622111],[0.3625283446712018,0.3543083900226758],[0.5276478679504815,0.42861072902338376]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[26.37148426622111,0,73.2386521860206,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.3898635477582846],[36.25283446712018,0,35.430839002267575,0,0,18.594104308390023,0,0,0,0,9.722222222222221],[42.86107290233838,0,52.764786795048146,0,4.37414030261348,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":37.80781318375303,"volatility_previous":28.316326530612244,"volatility_mean":33.062069857182635,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76248","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"El Cerrito","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.674975446201781,11.139748953974895,9.426559708550812],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76248|2023|Ordinary election|3058","CO-ALC-76248|2019|Ordinary election|3059","CO-ALC-76248|2015|Ordinary election|3060"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76248|2023|Ordinary election|3058","CO-ALC-76248|2019|Ordinary election|3059","CO-ALC-76248|2015|Ordinary election|3060"],"shares":[[0.3537101635790971,0.24696040911707928],[0.48579079497907945,0.3743933054393305],[0.4056117980873647,0.31134620100185656]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":46.55217037615691,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[7.589663697632675,0,35.37101635790971,18.647339722965423,0,0,0,0,0,0,38.39198022149219],[0,0,0,7.109623430962343,0,0,0,37.43933054393305,0,48.57907949790795,6.871966527196653],[0,40.56117980873647,31.134620100185657,0,0,2.7918870634392405,0,0,0,0,25.51231302763863]],"volatility_latest":86.018410041841,"volatility_previous":93.12803347280334,"volatility_mean":89.57322175732216,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76250","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"El Dovio","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.56152512998267,27.530364372469634,0.23645320197044128],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76250|2023|Ordinary election|3061","CO-ALC-76250|2019|Ordinary election|3062","CO-ALC-76250|2015|Ordinary election|3063"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76250|2023|Ordinary election|3061","CO-ALC-76250|2019|Ordinary election|3062","CO-ALC-76250|2015|Ordinary election|3063"],"shares":[[0.4400346620450607,0.354419410745234],[0.5239234449760766,0.24861980125138017],[0.33064039408866996,0.32827586206896553]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":32.90165145036232,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[18.2842287694974,0,44.00346620450607,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,37.712305025996535],[24.861980125138018,0,52.39234449760765,0,0,0,0,18.32903938167096,0,0,4.416635995583364],[33.064039408866996,0,32.827586206896555,5.477832512315271,28.63054187192118,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":33.295669030413166,"volatility_previous":42.31043366796543,"volatility_mean":37.803051349189296,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76275","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Florida","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.852968636536534,3.835021707670041,0.615114235500883],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76275|2023|Ordinary election|3064","CO-ALC-76275|2019|Ordinary election|3065","CO-ALC-76275|2015|Ordinary election|3066"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76275|2023|Ordinary election|3064","CO-ALC-76275|2019|Ordinary election|3065","CO-ALC-76275|2015|Ordinary election|3066"],"shares":[[0.30298419724056846,0.22445451087520316],[0.2713820549927641,0.2330318379160637],[0.3403449033391916,0.33419376098418274]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":70.3810044111349,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76306","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Ginebra","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[29.885456438736547,10.621260119676172,4.85219758848697],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76306|2023|Ordinary election|3067","CO-ALC-76306|2019|Ordinary election|3068","CO-ALC-76306|2015|Ordinary election|3069"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76306|2023|Ordinary election|3067","CO-ALC-76306|2019|Ordinary election|3068","CO-ALC-76306|2015|Ordinary election|3069"],"shares":[[0.6326796251301632,0.33382506074279766],[0.5249032030975009,0.41869060190073915],[0.34908595877090626,0.3005639828860366]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,33.38250607427977,63.267962513016315,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,3.3495314127039224],[0,52.49032030975009,41.86906019007392,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,5.640619500175995],[0,34.908595877090626,30.056398288603656,16.1415791520809,14.012057565149748,0,0,0,0,4.881369117075068,0]],"volatility_latest":21.398902322942398,"volatility_previous":35.03500583430572,"volatility_mean":28.21695407862406,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76318","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Guacari","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.114495978093444,15.918726088305242,12.74258721757441],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76318|2023|Ordinary election|3070","CO-ALC-76318|2019|Ordinary election|3071","CO-ALC-76318|2015|Ordinary election|3072"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76318|2023|Ordinary election|3070","CO-ALC-76318|2019|Ordinary election|3071","CO-ALC-76318|2015|Ordinary election|3072"],"shares":[[0.4614068115693993,0.2902618517884648],[0.5200599731155,0.36087271223244755],[0.5637129360878721,0.43628706391212796]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":18.407129324474592,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,29.026185178846482,46.14068115693993,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,24.833133664213587],[0,36.087271223244755,52.00599731155,0,0.7186433667666219,0,0,0,0,0,11.188088098438632],[0,56.371293608787205,43.628706391212795,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":13.64504556577496,"volatility_previous":20.284022385542453,"volatility_mean":16.964533975658707,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76364","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Jamundi","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.910647489594854,2.642454602379459,6.729071820124499],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76364|2023|Ordinary election|3073","CO-ALC-76364|2019|Ordinary election|3074","CO-ALC-76364|2015|Ordinary election|3075"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76364|2023|Ordinary election|3073","CO-ALC-76364|2019|Ordinary election|3074","CO-ALC-76364|2015|Ordinary election|3075"],"shares":[[0.4045800186151063,0.24547354371915778],[0.31038554432417925,0.2839609983003847],[0.3592399888506922,0.2919492706494472]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":44.93983971758399,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76377|2023|Ordinary election|3076","CO-ALC-76377|2019|Ordinary election|3077","CO-ALC-76377|2015|Ordinary election|3078"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76377|2023|Ordinary election|3076","CO-ALC-76377|2019|Ordinary election|3077","CO-ALC-76377|2015|Ordinary election|3078"],"shares":[[0.6208661962086619,0.1443199114431991],[0.5087198036429402,0.4376695517375016],[0.2868460592815189,0.2726403496790056]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76400","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"La Union","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.51420543240712,0.17771007870017286,35.14997321906802],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76400|2023|Ordinary election|3079","CO-ALC-76400|2019|Ordinary election|3080","CO-ALC-76400|2015|Ordinary election|3081"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76400|2023|Ordinary election|3079","CO-ALC-76400|2019|Ordinary election|3080","CO-ALC-76400|2015|Ordinary election|3081"],"shares":[[0.4088042460193569,0.2936621916952857],[0.3839172378776339,0.38214013709063216],[0.67574986609534,0.32425013390465984]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":47.61583197519437,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[17.751967504442753,0,0,0,5.642294998730642,0,0,0,0,0,76.6057374968266],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,67.57498660953401,32.425013390465985]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":67.57498660953401,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76403","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"La Victoria","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.345298648452257,41.31654577802108,1.0926508007783298],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76403|2023|Ordinary election|3082","CO-ALC-76403|2019|Ordinary election|3083","CO-ALC-76403|2015|Ordinary election|3084"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76403|2023|Ordinary election|3082","CO-ALC-76403|2019|Ordinary election|3083","CO-ALC-76403|2015|Ordinary election|3084"],"shares":[[0.5055951169888098,0.4621421305042872],[0.6909812508553442,0.27781579307513343],[0.455470737913486,0.44454422990570275]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":24.442959987222444,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,3.2262752506903065,0,0,0,0,0,96.7737247493097],[3.1202956069522374,0,27.781579307513343,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,69.09812508553442],[44.45442299057027,0,2.3050441550666068,7.693459063014519,0,0,0,0,0,45.5470737913486,0]],"volatility_latest":30.90187491446558,"volatility_previous":94.57466023798115,"volatility_mean":62.738267576223365,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76497","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Obando","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.08349602042349,6.326106326106327,9.278663629460894],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76497|2023|Ordinary election|3085","CO-ALC-76497|2019|Ordinary election|3086","CO-ALC-76497|2015|Ordinary election|3087"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76497|2023|Ordinary election|3085","CO-ALC-76497|2019|Ordinary election|3086","CO-ALC-76497|2015|Ordinary election|3087"],"shares":[[0.5436251689442859,0.38279020874005104],[0.33694683694683697,0.2736857736857737],[0.5463933181473045,0.45360668185269554]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":37.621020634839596,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,16.75081675081675,0,27.36857736857737,0,33.6946836946837,22.185922185922188,0,0,0,0],[0,0,0,54.63933181473045,0,0,0,0,0,0,45.36066818526955]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":72.63142263142264,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76520","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Palmira","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.53187366789382,0.9682746021150237,35.67952713019098],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76520|2023|Ordinary election|3088","CO-ALC-76520|2019|Ordinary election|3089","CO-ALC-76520|2015|Ordinary election|3090"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76520|2023|Ordinary election|3088","CO-ALC-76520|2019|Ordinary election|3089","CO-ALC-76520|2015|Ordinary election|3090"],"shares":[[0.4449370277078086,0.2896182910288704],[0.43204159786389346,0.42235885184274324],[0.6406510888684518,0.283855817566542]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":34.112203528050514,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.6758380158883938,0,0,99.3241619841116],[0,0,42.23588518427432,0,0,43.20415978638935,0,0,0,0,14.559955029336331],[0,0,64.06510888684518,0,0,0,0,28.385581756654197,2.4125646222666677,3.1563345446753037,1.9804101895586488]],"volatility_latest":85.44004497066366,"volatility_previous":55.78370462616703,"volatility_mean":70.61187479841534,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76563","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Pradera","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.184737506765288,19.00482832618026,6.011774311374673],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76563|2023|Ordinary election|3091","CO-ALC-76563|2019|Ordinary election|3092","CO-ALC-76563|2015|Ordinary election|3093"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76563|2023|Ordinary election|3091","CO-ALC-76563|2019|Ordinary election|3092","CO-ALC-76563|2015|Ordinary election|3093"],"shares":[[0.3329875518672199,0.261140176799567],[0.4403612303290415,0.2503129470672389],[0.4009281938893902,0.3408104507756435]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":46.93265783474641,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,26.114017679956703,0,33.29875518672199,0,0,0,0,40.587227133321306],[25.03129470672389,0,44.03612303290415,14.207796852646638,0,0,0,0,0,12.571530758226038,4.153254649499284],[0,0,34.08104507756435,25.01396588028018,0.8121696532164496,0,40.09281938893902,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":81.63894849785407,"volatility_previous":51.711158069789015,"volatility_mean":66.67505328382154,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76606","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Restrepo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.92325500636648,8.491253644314867,7.964376590330787],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76606|2023|Ordinary election|3094","CO-ALC-76606|2019|Ordinary election|3095","CO-ALC-76606|2015|Ordinary election|3096"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76606|2023|Ordinary election|3094","CO-ALC-76606|2019|Ordinary election|3095","CO-ALC-76606|2015|Ordinary election|3096"],"shares":[[0.44391712003704137,0.27468456997337654],[0.5160349854227405,0.43112244897959184],[0.39847328244274804,0.3188295165394402]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":32.51116621926287,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0.20835744877879384,0,0,0,44.391712003704136,0,0,0,0,55.399930547517066],[5.284256559766764,0,0,0,0,43.11224489795919,0,0,0,0,51.60349854227405],[0,0,0,0,0,31.88295165394402,17.595419847328245,0,0,39.847328244274806,10.674300254452927]],"volatility_latest":5.284256559766759,"volatility_previous":57.44274809160305,"volatility_mean":31.363502325684905,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76616","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Riofrio","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.660550458715591,4.847581939032775,4.279406770066792],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76616|2023|Ordinary election|3097","CO-ALC-76616|2019|Ordinary election|3098","CO-ALC-76616|2015|Ordinary election|3099"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76616|2023|Ordinary election|3097","CO-ALC-76616|2019|Ordinary election|3098","CO-ALC-76616|2015|Ordinary election|3099"],"shares":[[0.44323394495412843,0.3666284403669725],[0.3330277332110933,0.2845519138207655],[0.36646665911921206,0.3236725914185441]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":67.60727233027067,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[36.66284403669725,0,44.32339449541284,0,0,13.325688073394495,0,0,0,0,5.6880733944954125],[28.455191382076553,0,0,0,6.234242493696997,0.3896401558560623,0,5.099702039880816,0,0,59.821223928489566],[29.87659911694781,0,32.36725914185441,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,37.75614174119778]],"volatility_latest":65.46709506757198,"volatility_previous":33.788666876725664,"volatility_mean":49.627880972148816,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76622","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Roldanillo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.192860252503266,9.935774276774438,6.947231731790811],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76622|2023|Ordinary election|3100","CO-ALC-76622|2019|Ordinary election|3101","CO-ALC-76622|2015|Ordinary election|3102"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76622|2023|Ordinary election|3100","CO-ALC-76622|2019|Ordinary election|3101","CO-ALC-76622|2015|Ordinary election|3102"],"shares":[[0.46027427078798433,0.39834566826295165],[0.502717242136466,0.40335949936872156],[0.37197497343879116,0.302502656120883]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":63.04414196143314,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,46.02742707879843,0,0,0,0,9.044405746626033,0,0,44.92816717457553],[50.27172421364659,0,40.335949936872154,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,9.392325849481255],[0,0,5.282729311769566,6.835084405619171,0,0,37.197497343879114,20.434423326643845,0,0,30.250265612088302]],"volatility_latest":50.27172421364659,"volatility_previous":85.32494483874918,"volatility_mean":67.79833452619789,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76670","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"San Pedro","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.102458560462793,15.226337448559676,15.746260263187494],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76670|2023|Ordinary election|3103","CO-ALC-76670|2019|Ordinary election|3104","CO-ALC-76670|2015|Ordinary election|3105"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76670|2023|Ordinary election|3103","CO-ALC-76670|2019|Ordinary election|3104","CO-ALC-76670|2015|Ordinary election|3105"],"shares":[[0.49605072866837246,0.38502614306374455],[0.5615615615615616,0.4092981870759648],[0.46541446406478465,0.3079518614329097]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":35.97998801417835,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,38.502614306374454,49.60507286683725,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,11.892312826788297],[56.15615615615616,0,0,0,2.9140251362473584,0,0,0,0,0,40.92981870759648],[22.66336745023057,46.541446406478464,30.79518614329097,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":88.1076871732117,"volatility_previous":77.33663254976943,"volatility_mean":82.72215986149057,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76736","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Sevilla","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.9272546638701868,7.701919800068161,26.07651081131029],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76736|2023|Ordinary election|3106","CO-ALC-76736|2019|Ordinary election|3107","CO-ALC-76736|2015|Ordinary election|3108"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76736|2023|Ordinary election|3106","CO-ALC-76736|2019|Ordinary election|3107","CO-ALC-76736|2015|Ordinary election|3108"],"shares":[[0.45970857710564084,0.450436030466939],[0.3703850959900034,0.29336589798932183],[0.574631922626748,0.31386681451364506]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":72.62710090263205,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,45.043603046693896,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,54.95639695330611],[0,37.03850959900034,14.614336021810747,14.693854367829148,0.9258207429285471,2.1242758150630467,0,0,0,0,30.60320345336817],[3.369679048851106,0,0,31.386681451364506,0,0,0,7.780447237109591,0,0,57.463192262674795]],"volatility_latest":32.35828694763149,"volatility_previous":54.70294217880268,"volatility_mean":43.530614563217085,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76823","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Toro","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.51032738513419,27.969235320218903,20.423837291992605],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76823|2023|Ordinary election|3109","CO-ALC-76823|2019|Ordinary election|3110","CO-ALC-76823|2015|Ordinary election|3111"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76823|2023|Ordinary election|3109","CO-ALC-76823|2019|Ordinary election|3110","CO-ALC-76823|2015|Ordinary election|3111"],"shares":[[0.3842911339047352,0.3391878600533933],[0.5775772814672385,0.29788492826504953],[0.535343478879249,0.33110510595932297]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":34.303246218272776,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[33.91878600533933,0,27.652100604187158,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,38.42911339047352],[12.453779026771187,0,0,0,29.788492826504953,0,0,57.757728146723856,0,0,0],[33.1105105959323,0,0,0,53.5343478879249,6.386004835727492,0,0.042668183757644716,0,0,6.926468496657659]],"volatility_latest":87.54622097322881,"volatility_previous":57.71505996296621,"volatility_mean":72.63064046809751,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76828","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Trujillo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[31.30067374671691,22.483674848007205,13.37905381843543],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76828|2023|Ordinary election|3112","CO-ALC-76828|2019|Ordinary election|3113","CO-ALC-76828|2015|Ordinary election|3114"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76828|2023|Ordinary election|3112","CO-ALC-76828|2019|Ordinary election|3113","CO-ALC-76828|2015|Ordinary election|3114"],"shares":[[0.5885577252483727,0.2755509877812036],[0.4667867597387976,0.2419500112587255],[0.48808555155178424,0.35429501336742997]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,58.85577252483727,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,41.14422747516272],[0,0,0,0,0,6.811528934924566,6.879081287998199,0,0,0,86.30938977707724],[0,0.5695687550854354,0,7.032430547483436,0,0,0,48.808555155178425,0,0,43.5894455422527]],"volatility_latest":58.85577252483728,"volatility_previous":56.4105544577473,"volatility_mean":57.633163491292294,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76834","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Tulua","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[22.18131824431037,1.840818980889047,9.180244951045921],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76834|2023|Ordinary election|3115","CO-ALC-76834|2019|Ordinary election|3116","CO-ALC-76834|2015|Ordinary election|3117"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76834|2023|Ordinary election|3115","CO-ALC-76834|2019|Ordinary election|3116","CO-ALC-76834|2015|Ordinary election|3117"],"shares":[[0.4716342275397393,0.24982104509663564],[0.4020117896326753,0.38360359982378484],[0.35723833953538786,0.2654358900249287]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":26.104694320212364,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[47.16342275397393,0,0,9.630614355023804,0,1.0725931985774506,0,0,0,0,42.13336969242481],[38.36035998237848,0,40.20117896326753,4.6885816778199665,0,0,0,0,0,0,16.749879376534018],[0,26.543589002492865,18.284620109107987,5.804641304478726,0,1.8979491070245793,0,35.72383395353879,1.0296614762094007,0,10.715705047147656]],"volatility_latest":40.20117896326753,"volatility_previous":66.31109316592439,"volatility_mean":53.256136064595964,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76845","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Ulloa","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[51.30609511051574,43.68055555555555,4.7252362618130945],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76845|2023|Ordinary election|3118","CO-ALC-76845|2019|Ordinary election|3119","CO-ALC-76845|2015|Ordinary election|3120"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76845|2023|Ordinary election|3118","CO-ALC-76845|2019|Ordinary election|3119","CO-ALC-76845|2015|Ordinary election|3120"],"shares":[[0.7565304755525787,0.2434695244474213],[0.7184027777777777,0.2815972222222222],[0.48827441372068603,0.4410220511025551]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76863","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Versalles","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[28.464017185821696,10.424270072992698,0.43792423910663203],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76863|2023|Ordinary election|3121","CO-ALC-76863|2019|Ordinary election|3122","CO-ALC-76863|2015|Ordinary election|3123"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76863|2023|Ordinary election|3121","CO-ALC-76863|2019|Ordinary election|3122","CO-ALC-76863|2015|Ordinary election|3123"],"shares":[[0.6423200859291085,0.3576799140708915],[0.49566605839416056,0.3914233576642336],[0.32034158090650316,0.3159623385154368]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,35.76799140708915,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,64.23200859291084],[0,0,49.566605839416056,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,50.433394160583944],[31.596233851543683,0,32.034158090650315,16.61922487409678,8.977446901686008,0,0,10.77293628202321,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":13.798614432326904,"volatility_previous":67.96584190934968,"volatility_mean":40.88222817083829,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76869","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Vijes","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[33.12590448625181,8.08988764044944,47.56457564575646],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76869|2023|Ordinary election|3124","CO-ALC-76869|2019|Ordinary election|3125","CO-ALC-76869|2015|Ordinary election|3126"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76869|2023|Ordinary election|3124","CO-ALC-76869|2019|Ordinary election|3125","CO-ALC-76869|2015|Ordinary election|3126"],"shares":[[0.5421128798842257,0.21085383502170768],[0.44735152487961477,0.3664526484751204],[0.7378228782287823,0.2621771217712177]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[21.085383502170767,0,0,4.298118668596238,0,3.314037626628075,0,0,0,0,71.30246020260492],[44.73515248796148,0,0,36.64526484751204,0,0,0,0,0,0,18.619582664526483],[73.78228782287823,26.217712177121772,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":55.996915164706515,"volatility_previous":55.26484751203852,"volatility_mean":55.63088133837252,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76890","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Yotoco","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[26.624851303125336,34.45443445443445,23.57769923611903],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76890|2023|Ordinary election|3127","CO-ALC-76890|2019|Ordinary election|3128","CO-ALC-76890|2015|Ordinary election|3129"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76890|2023|Ordinary election|3127","CO-ALC-76890|2019|Ordinary election|3128","CO-ALC-76890|2015|Ordinary election|3129"],"shares":[[0.5203849897263977,0.2541364766951444],[0.6585636585636585,0.31401931401931404],[0.5976513510432107,0.3618743586820203]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,52.03849897263977,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,47.96150102736022],[0,0,65.85636585636585,0,31.401931401931403,0,0,0,0,0,2.741702741702742],[0,0.29643142173070347,59.76513510432106,0,0,3.0327214684756583,0,0,0,0.7182761372705507,36.18743586820203]],"volatility_latest":45.21979828565748,"volatility_previous":37.4931621539762,"volatility_mean":41.356480219816845,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76892","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Yumbo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[34.340044742729305,2.255805148914689,10.756728416637536],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76892|2023|Ordinary election|3130","CO-ALC-76892|2019|Ordinary election|3131","CO-ALC-76892|2015|Ordinary election|3132"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76892|2023|Ordinary election|3130","CO-ALC-76892|2019|Ordinary election|3131","CO-ALC-76892|2015|Ordinary election|3132"],"shares":[[0.5967250807854835,0.2533246333581904],[0.45294358909641597,0.43038553760726905],[0.5475707794477455,0.44000349528137017]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,59.67250807854835,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,40.32749192145165],[0.6530792529025744,45.294358909641595,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,54.05256183745583],[0,54.75707794477455,44.000349528137015,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.2425725270884307]],"volatility_latest":59.67250807854835,"volatility_previous":53.46306856326997,"volatility_mean":56.56778832090916,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-76895","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Zarzal","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.473016382910373,1.4506887724003406,8.237891541327443],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-76895|2023|Ordinary election|3133","CO-ALC-76895|2019|Ordinary election|3134","CO-ALC-76895|2015|Ordinary election|3135"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-76895|2023|Ordinary election|3133","CO-ALC-76895|2019|Ordinary election|3134","CO-ALC-76895|2015|Ordinary election|3135"],"shares":[[0.3933504657886283,0.3386203019595246],[0.26425291559998376,0.24974602787598033],[0.3665884733912883,0.2842095579780139]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":77.28597192200465,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,13.319145518792162,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,86.68085448120783],[12.881466130277541,0,18.708602543784796,0,0,26.425291559998374,0,0,0,0,41.98463976593929],[0.11499011085046686,0.5749505542523343,36.65884733912883,28.42095579780139,14.129984821305367,0.0045996044340186745,20.09567177222759,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":44.696214715268546,"volatility_previous":81.17180774093072,"volatility_mean":62.934011228099635,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-81001","country":"Colombia","region":"Arauca","name":"Arauca","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[22.869426360397984,1.5576545226428031,3.506815028429955],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-81001|2023|Ordinary election|3136","CO-ALC-81001|2019|Ordinary election|3137","CO-ALC-81001|2015|Ordinary election|3138"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-81001|2023|Ordinary election|3136","CO-ALC-81001|2019|Ordinary election|3137","CO-ALC-81001|2015|Ordinary election|3138"],"shares":[[0.4644883920894239,0.23579412848544404],[0.27031697559358947,0.25474043036716143],[0.44315368501237856,0.408085534728079]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":27.30183162062686,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,20.820538017442576,0,0.49871023215821153,0,0,0,0,78.6807517503992],[0,10.8041569017352,5.66247662334588,0,0,0,27.031697559358946,0,0,0,56.501668915559975],[0,0,40.8085534728079,44.315368501237856,14.843431183175994,0.032646842778246324,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":43.49833108444002,"volatility_previous":94.33752337665412,"volatility_mean":68.91792723054706,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-81065","country":"Colombia","region":"Arauca","name":"Arauquita","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.593246354566382,1.946371259964799,21.684483317136383],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-81065|2023|Ordinary election|3139","CO-ALC-81065|2019|Ordinary election|3140","CO-ALC-81065|2015|Ordinary election|3141"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-81065|2023|Ordinary election|3139","CO-ALC-81065|2019|Ordinary election|3140","CO-ALC-81065|2015|Ordinary election|3141"],"shares":[[0.4189149300430958,0.322982466497432],[0.439486489284605,0.420022776684957],[0.608422416585682,0.3915775834143181]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":57.45846238778547,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,41.89149300430958,0,58.10850699569042],[0.253649446112434,0,0,0,4.136038927425199,0,0,0,0,0,95.61031162646236],null],"volatility_latest":41.89149300430958,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-81220","country":"Colombia","region":"Arauca","name":"Cravo Norte","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.147679324894511,14.384085692425401,1.7777777777777786],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-81220|2023|Ordinary election|3142","CO-ALC-81220|2019|Ordinary election|3143","CO-ALC-81220|2015|Ordinary election|3144"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-81220|2023|Ordinary election|3142","CO-ALC-81220|2019|Ordinary election|3143","CO-ALC-81220|2015|Ordinary election|3144"],"shares":[[0.48818565400843883,0.3367088607594937],[0.4150726855394032,0.2712318286151492],[0.4008888888888889,0.3831111111111111]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":32.09194459778948,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,33.67088607594937,48.81856540084388,0,0.12658227848101267,0,0,0.04219409282700422,0,0,17.341772151898734],[0,27.12318286151492,0,41.50726855394032,6.885998469778118,0,0,0,0,0,24.483550114766643],[0,40.08888888888889,38.31111111111111,21.6,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":55.40846270810533,"volatility_previous":51.27681713848508,"volatility_mean":53.34263992329521,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-81300","country":"Colombia","region":"Arauca","name":"Fortul","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[43.4559221200649,11.580594679186227,1.8237082066869306],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-81300|2023|Ordinary election|3145","CO-ALC-81300|2019|Ordinary election|3146","CO-ALC-81300|2015|Ordinary election|3147"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-81300|2023|Ordinary election|3145","CO-ALC-81300|2019|Ordinary election|3146","CO-ALC-81300|2015|Ordinary election|3147"],"shares":[[0.6320984315846403,0.19753921038399136],[0.5435175153485012,0.42771156855663894],[0.5091185410334347,0.4908814589665653]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,12.222823147647377,0,0,0,63.20984315846403,0,24.56733369388859],[0,42.7711568556639,0,0,2.8770916094859755,0,0,0,0,0,54.35175153485012],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,50.911854103343465,0,49.088145896656535]],"volatility_latest":72.55557469662543,"volatility_previous":50.911854103343465,"volatility_mean":61.73371439998445,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-81591","country":"Colombia","region":"Arauca","name":"Puerto Rondon","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[23.75801282051282,5.27568425228084,7.563025210084035],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-81591|2023|Ordinary election|3148","CO-ALC-81591|2019|Ordinary election|3149","CO-ALC-81591|2015|Ordinary election|3150"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-81591|2023|Ordinary election|3148","CO-ALC-81591|2019|Ordinary election|3149","CO-ALC-81591|2015|Ordinary election|3150"],"shares":[[0.5380608974358975,0.3004807692307692],[0.38516461721539075,0.3324077746925823],[0.47854931446262716,0.4029190623617868]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":17.030922554998252,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,16.025641025641026,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,83.97435897435898],[0,38.51646172153907,0,0,24.514081713605712,0.19833399444664815,3.530345101150337,0,0,0,33.240777469258234],[0,0,40.29190623617868,0,11.853162317558603,0,0,0,0,0,47.85493144626272]],"volatility_latest":50.733581505100744,"volatility_previous":54.90606021318317,"volatility_mean":52.819820859141956,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-81736","country":"Colombia","region":"Arauca","name":"Saravena","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.4509803921568647,43.24198552223371,5.545383206905569],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-81736|2023|Ordinary election|3151","CO-ALC-81736|2019|Ordinary election|3152","CO-ALC-81736|2015|Ordinary election|3153"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-81736|2023|Ordinary election|3151","CO-ALC-81736|2019|Ordinary election|3152","CO-ALC-81736|2015|Ordinary election|3153"],"shares":[[0.3632246376811594,0.3387148337595908],[0.5614270941054809,0.12900723888314375],[0.40184410149097566,0.34639026942191997]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":25.011388936726053,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,11.402387041773231,0,0,0,0,0,88.59761295822678],[6.334022750775595,0,0,3.75387797311272,12.900723888314374,0,0,3.474663908996898,0,0,73.53671147880041],[0,0,0,23.221292178917082,40.184410149097566,0,0,0,0,0,36.59429767198535]],"volatility_latest":15.06090147942636,"volatility_previous":46.75110046658755,"volatility_mean":30.906000973006954,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-81794","country":"Colombia","region":"Arauca","name":"Tame","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.42994193385509,2.580028666985193,11.177631578947366],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-81794|2023|Ordinary election|3154","CO-ALC-81794|2019|Ordinary election|3155","CO-ALC-81794|2015|Ordinary election|3156"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-81794|2023|Ordinary election|3154","CO-ALC-81794|2019|Ordinary election|3155","CO-ALC-81794|2015|Ordinary election|3156"],"shares":[[0.3979298157031053,0.2236303963645544],[0.35824175824175825,0.33244147157190634],[0.4192105263157895,0.3074342105263158]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":38.25131540848326,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,15.289068417066398,0,0,0,0,0,0,84.7109315829336],[0,35.824175824175825,0,0,33.24414715719063,0,1.9350215002388915,0,0,0,28.99665551839465],[0,41.921052631578945,0,0,30.74342105263158,0,0,0,0,0,27.335526315789473]],"volatility_latest":71.00334448160535,"volatility_previous":6.096876807403121,"volatility_mean":38.55011064450424,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-85001","country":"Colombia","region":"Casanare","name":"Yopal","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[29.23323849128183,9.54176709949978,14.723718247741825],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-85001|2023|Ordinary election|3157","CO-ALC-85001|2019|Ordinary election|3158","CO-ALC-85001|2015|Ordinary election|3159"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-85001|2023|Ordinary election|3157","CO-ALC-85001|2019|Ordinary election|3158","CO-ALC-85001|2015|Ordinary election|3159"],"shares":[[0.5442231463242626,0.2518907614114443],[0.30907394448332165,0.21365627348832386],[0.35097465473615763,0.2037374722587394]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,13.602538848763405,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02067070353347438,0,86.37679044770312],[1.1274395459140036,21.365627348832387,6.287743306637639,0,0,0,30.907394448332166,0.9084311743513983,0,0,39.4033641759324],[0,0,18.59123870913023,0.5145385409157089,20.373747225873938,8.084192075541043,0,1.16902025642113,0.21627581527500955,0.5781490748201236,50.472838302022815]],"volatility_latest":46.99409697530419,"volatility_previous":53.40046134307856,"volatility_mean":50.197279159191375,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-85010","country":"Colombia","region":"Casanare","name":"Aguazul","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.13580805794477,11.494094397720481,5.893536121673002],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-85010|2023|Ordinary election|3160","CO-ALC-85010|2019|Ordinary election|3161","CO-ALC-85010|2015|Ordinary election|3162"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-85010|2023|Ordinary election|3160","CO-ALC-85010|2019|Ordinary election|3161","CO-ALC-85010|2015|Ordinary election|3162"],"shares":[[0.46527840651878677,0.26392032593933906],[0.4627970035387656,0.34785605956156074],[0.38346521426369334,0.32452985304696336]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":19.404666168748474,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.8696242643730194,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,98.13037573562697],[0,0,0,0,34.785605956156076,0,0,0,0,0,65.21439404384392],[0,32.452985304696334,38.346521426369335,23.019216935566746,0,0,6.181276333367588,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":34.78560595615607,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":67.39280297807804,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-85015","country":"Colombia","region":"Casanare","name":"Chameza","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[72.1030042918455,28.154133001864516,12.76440554339898],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-85015|2023|Ordinary election|3163","CO-ALC-85015|2019|Ordinary election|3164","CO-ALC-85015|2015|Ordinary election|3165"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-85015|2023|Ordinary election|3163","CO-ALC-85015|2019|Ordinary election|3164","CO-ALC-85015|2015|Ordinary election|3165"],"shares":[[0.8362967504598405,0.11526670754138565],[0.6407706650093226,0.35922933499067744],[0.5638220277169949,0.4361779722830051]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,35.922933499067746,0,0,64.07706650093226,0,0,0,0,0,0],[0,43.61779722830051,0,56.38220277169949,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":64.07706650093226,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-85125","country":"Colombia","region":"Casanare","name":"Hato Corozal","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.28313470566992,11.461162411732754,25.885558583106267],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-85125|2023|Ordinary election|3166","CO-ALC-85125|2019|Ordinary election|3167","CO-ALC-85125|2015|Ordinary election|3168"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-85125|2023|Ordinary election|3166","CO-ALC-85125|2019|Ordinary election|3167","CO-ALC-85125|2015|Ordinary election|3168"],"shares":[[0.4001444564824847,0.2573131094257855],[0.3918160420061561,0.27720441788882855],[0.46340988711560915,0.20455430128454652]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":27.01607297383799,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.4514265077645359,25.73131094257855,40.01444564824847,0,0,0,0,4.785120982304081,0,0,29.01769591910437],[0,20.224515661778018,7.061379684953829,0,39.18160420061561,0,0,0.6699257649827992,0,0,32.86257468766975],[0,46.34098871156092,15.687037757882445,20.45543012845465,0,0,0,0,0,0,17.516543402101984]],"volatility_latest":43.02648296918099,"volatility_previous":55.19756125116617,"volatility_mean":49.112022110173584,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-85136","country":"Colombia","region":"Casanare","name":"La Salina","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.220705346985213,2.724795640326974,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-85136|2023|Ordinary election|3169","CO-ALC-85136|2019|Ordinary election|3170","CO-ALC-85136|2015|Ordinary election|3171"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-85136|2023|Ordinary election|3169","CO-ALC-85136|2019|Ordinary election|3170","CO-ALC-85136|2015|Ordinary election|3171"],"shares":[[0.571103526734926,0.42889647326507396],[0.4904632152588556,0.46321525885558584],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,42.889647326507394,0,0,0,57.110352673492606],[4.632152588555858,49.04632152588556,0,0,0,0,46.321525885558586,0,0,0,0],[0,100.0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":57.110352673492606,"volatility_previous":50.95367847411444,"volatility_mean":54.03201557380352,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-85139","country":"Colombia","region":"Casanare","name":"Mani","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.969422423556061,9.73773676542011,2.2234273318872013],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-85139|2023|Ordinary election|3172","CO-ALC-85139|2019|Ordinary election|3173","CO-ALC-85139|2015|Ordinary election|3174"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-85139|2023|Ordinary election|3172","CO-ALC-85139|2019|Ordinary election|3173","CO-ALC-85139|2015|Ordinary election|3174"],"shares":[[0.41970554926387316,0.33001132502831254],[0.3266148615832929,0.2292374939290918],[0.4627169197396963,0.4404826464208243]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":57.373413915258055,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.1245753114382786,22.514156285390712,0,0,33.001132502831254,0,0,0,0,0,44.36013590033975],[0,32.66148615832929,1.1656143759106363,0,19.65760077707625,22.74162214667314,22.92374939290918,0,0,0,0.8499271491015057],[0,44.04826464208243,4.718004338394794,46.27169197396963,0,0,0,4.799349240780911,0,0,0.16268980477223427]],"volatility_latest":56.97831578843153,"volatility_previous":66.01020966098784,"volatility_mean":61.494262724709685,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-85162","country":"Colombia","region":"Casanare","name":"Monterrey","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.161674646475888,10.38110825344868,4.993849938499384],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-85162|2023|Ordinary election|3175","CO-ALC-85162|2019|Ordinary election|3176","CO-ALC-85162|2015|Ordinary election|3177"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-85162|2023|Ordinary election|3175","CO-ALC-85162|2019|Ordinary election|3176","CO-ALC-85162|2015|Ordinary election|3177"],"shares":[[0.4361429684890324,0.3545262220242735],[0.27858311900865096,0.17477203647416414],[0.24993849938499385,0.2]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":57.44638871114962,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,6.157443491816056,43.61429684890324,0,0,0,0,0,0,50.2282596592807],[6.382978723404255,9.656301145662848,1.4846855272387187,17.477203647416413,27.858311900865093,0.806640168342296,0,5.79845686228665,0.26888005611409865,2.43161094224924,27.83493102642039],[0.012300123001230012,24.993849938499384,17.429274292742928,16.371463714637148,7.527675276752768,0,20.0,0,0,4.391143911439114,9.274292742927429]],"volatility_latest":53.20317979892448,"volatility_previous":53.24167052753062,"volatility_mean":53.222425163227555,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-85225","country":"Colombia","region":"Casanare","name":"Nunchia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.730970366066245,7.396271797955503,22.55989352262644],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-85225|2023|Ordinary election|3178","CO-ALC-85225|2019|Ordinary election|3179","CO-ALC-85225|2015|Ordinary election|3180"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-85225|2023|Ordinary election|3178","CO-ALC-85225|2019|Ordinary election|3179","CO-ALC-85225|2015|Ordinary election|3180"],"shares":[[0.3538640325392214,0.32655432887855895],[0.28061735818801364,0.2066546402084586],[0.5499112688553682,0.32431233362910383]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":69.43273444355479,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,3.1469232311084387,20.66546402084586,0,19.72339146121467,6.0934054920825815,0,0,0,28.061735818801363,22.309079975947082],[0,12.577639751552795,32.43123336291038,54.99112688553682,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":76.1876127480457,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-85230","country":"Colombia","region":"Casanare","name":"Orocue","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.6447663132746015,19.963369963369964,40.53213545266067],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-85230|2023|Ordinary election|3181","CO-ALC-85230|2019|Ordinary election|3182","CO-ALC-85230|2015|Ordinary election|3183"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-85230|2023|Ordinary election|3181","CO-ALC-85230|2019|Ordinary election|3182","CO-ALC-85230|2015|Ordinary election|3183"],"shares":[[0.5232193519486337,0.4567716888158877],[0.5883699633699634,0.38873626373626374],[0.7026606772633034,0.2973393227366966]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":29.85457838879091,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0.28998778998779,58.836996336996336,0,0,0,0.6715506715506715,0,1.3278388278388278,38.87362637362637],[0,0,0,29.733932273669662,0,0,0,0,0,0,70.26606772633033]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":31.392441352703962,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-85250","country":"Colombia","region":"Casanare","name":"Paz De Ariporo (Moreno)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[26.0315201926234,2.9041899283821095,1.2226471879114698],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-85250|2023|Ordinary election|3184","CO-ALC-85250|2019|Ordinary election|3185","CO-ALC-85250|2015|Ordinary election|3186"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-85250|2023|Ordinary election|3184","CO-ALC-85250|2019|Ordinary election|3185","CO-ALC-85250|2015|Ordinary election|3186"],"shares":[[0.5434497099704498,0.2831345080442158],[0.4174138611628038,0.3883719618789827],[0.2744999686500721,0.2622734967709574]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":16.937830935600907,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,41.74138611628038,17.40258275531495,0,0.2424857610105453,0,0,40.613545367394124],[2.4014044767697036,14.032227725876231,27.44999686500721,19.93228415574644,26.22734967709574,0,0.8150981252743119,0,0,0,9.141638974230359]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":64.6310113486739,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-85263","country":"Colombia","region":"Casanare","name":"Pore","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.62760457465142,1.971024258760103,1.7278617710583148],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-85263|2023|Ordinary election|3187","CO-ALC-85263|2019|Ordinary election|3188","CO-ALC-85263|2015|Ordinary election|3189"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-85263|2023|Ordinary election|3187","CO-ALC-85263|2019|Ordinary election|3188","CO-ALC-85263|2015|Ordinary election|3189"],"shares":[[0.5284349052169827,0.3421588594704684],[0.3522574123989218,0.33254716981132076],[0.2075397604555272,0.19026114274494405]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":40.296719002376435,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,52.843490521698264,0,0,7.582641391195363,4.605984646717844,0,0,0.09399968666771111,0,34.873883753720825],[0,33.25471698113208,0,0,35.22574123989218,0,0,1.3308625336927224,0,0,30.18867924528302],[0.0196347928529354,7.245238562733163,8.816021990967995,14.411937954054585,4.614176320439819,12.448458668761045,19.026114274494404,0,0,0,33.41841743569606]],"volatility_latest":28.973962382389544,"volatility_previous":57.951905871544,"volatility_mean":43.46293412696677,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-85279","country":"Colombia","region":"Casanare","name":"Recetor","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[32.281334535617674,4.638218923933209,17.833800186741357],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-85279|2023|Ordinary election|3190","CO-ALC-85279|2019|Ordinary election|3191","CO-ALC-85279|2015|Ordinary election|3192"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-85279|2023|Ordinary election|3190","CO-ALC-85279|2019|Ordinary election|3191","CO-ALC-85279|2015|Ordinary election|3192"],"shares":[[0.6357078449053202,0.3128944995491434],[0.3877551020408163,0.34137291280148424],[0.5891690009337068,0.4108309990662932]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,5.139765554553652,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,94.86023444544635],[0,38.775510204081634,15.769944341372913,0,34.137291280148425,0,0,0,0,0,11.317254174397032],[0,0,0,41.08309990662932,0,58.91690009337068,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":83.54298027104932,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":91.77149013552466,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-85300","country":"Colombia","region":"Casanare","name":"Sabanalarga","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[36.13518197573657,25.022999080036797,25.707656612529],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-85300|2023|Ordinary election|3193","CO-ALC-85300|2019|Ordinary election|3194","CO-ALC-85300|2015|Ordinary election|3195"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-85300|2023|Ordinary election|3193","CO-ALC-85300|2019|Ordinary election|3194","CO-ALC-85300|2015|Ordinary election|3195"],"shares":[[0.6143847487001733,0.2530329289428076],[0.625114995400184,0.374885004599816],[0.6018561484918794,0.34477958236658934]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,11.655112651646448,0,0,25.303292894280762,0,0,0,0,0,63.041594454072786],[0,0,0,62.5114995400184,0,0,37.4885004599816,0,0,0,0],[0,5.336426914153132,34.477958236658935,60.185614849187935,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":100.0,"volatility_previous":39.814385150812065,"volatility_mean":69.90719257540603,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-85315","country":"Colombia","region":"Casanare","name":"Sacama","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.324921135646683,12.65527950310559,13.12447078746824],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-85315|2023|Ordinary election|3196","CO-ALC-85315|2019|Ordinary election|3197","CO-ALC-85315|2015|Ordinary election|3198"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-85315|2023|Ordinary election|3196","CO-ALC-85315|2019|Ordinary election|3197","CO-ALC-85315|2015|Ordinary election|3198"],"shares":[[0.34700315457413244,0.33375394321766566],[0.5613354037267081,0.43478260869565216],[0.5656223539373412,0.4343776460626588]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":70.48008194466745,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,33.375394321766564,0,0,66.62460567823344],[56.13354037267081,43.47826086956522,0.38819875776397517,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[56.56223539373412,43.43776460626588,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":100.0,"volatility_previous":0.42869502106331314,"volatility_mean":50.21434751053166,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-85325","country":"Colombia","region":"Casanare","name":"San Luis De Palenque","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[31.790065604498597,24.161203239490938,2.8498511271799174],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-85325|2023|Ordinary election|3199","CO-ALC-85325|2019|Ordinary election|3200","CO-ALC-85325|2015|Ordinary election|3201"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-85325|2023|Ordinary election|3199","CO-ALC-85325|2019|Ordinary election|3200","CO-ALC-85325|2015|Ordinary election|3201"],"shares":[[0.6123711340206186,0.29447047797563264],[0.5912070960277671,0.3495950636328577],[0.5136112292641429,0.48511271799234373]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,59.12070960277671,0,0,0,0,40.87929039722329],[0,51.36112292641429,0,48.51127179923437,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12760527435133986]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":99.87239472564866,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-85400","country":"Colombia","region":"Casanare","name":"Tamara","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[41.38495092693566,4.6668540905257245,4.363312555654495],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-85400|2023|Ordinary election|3202","CO-ALC-85400|2019|Ordinary election|3203","CO-ALC-85400|2015|Ordinary election|3204"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-85400|2023|Ordinary election|3202","CO-ALC-85400|2019|Ordinary election|3203","CO-ALC-85400|2015|Ordinary election|3204"],"shares":[[0.7069247546346783,0.2930752453653217],[0.40933370818105147,0.36266516727579423],[0.3095874146631048,0.2659542891065598]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,29.30752453653217,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,70.69247546346783],[0,0,15.490581951082373,0,7.309530503233062,36.26651672757942,0,0,0,0,40.933370818105146],[0,19.174829326209558,30.958741466310478,0,0.2968239833778569,0,0,26.595428910655983,0,0,22.974176313446126]],"volatility_latest":43.576047230812485,"volatility_previous":61.238417752093646,"volatility_mean":52.407232491453065,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-85410","country":"Colombia","region":"Casanare","name":"Tauramena","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.5761148129164582,1.6810473073490044,19.00983267207176],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-85410|2023|Ordinary election|3205","CO-ALC-85410|2019|Ordinary election|3206","CO-ALC-85410|2015|Ordinary election|3207"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-85410|2023|Ordinary election|3205","CO-ALC-85410|2019|Ordinary election|3206","CO-ALC-85410|2015|Ordinary election|3207"],"shares":[[0.4388134290107637,0.42305228088159913],[0.30898542100565307,0.29217494793216303],[0.490426082456443,0.30032775573572534]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":83.24516826419124,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,42.305228088159915,1.0699641209636084,0,11.468477703741671,0.5125576627370579,0,0,0,0,44.643772424397746],[0,22.218089854210056,0,0,0,29.217494793216304,0,0,0,0,48.56441535257364],[0,3.08780403657064,30.032775573572536,49.042608245644296,9.237536656891496,5.658099016732793,1.5525271692254614,0,0,0.07762635846127307,1.3110229429015008]],"volatility_latest":32.62558005865514,"volatility_previous":89.94307400379506,"volatility_mean":61.284327031225104,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-85430","country":"Colombia","region":"Casanare","name":"Trinidad","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.949079089924162,5.016137708445399,4.516594516594516],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-85430|2023|Ordinary election|3208","CO-ALC-85430|2019|Ordinary election|3209","CO-ALC-85430|2015|Ordinary election|3210"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-85430|2023|Ordinary election|3208","CO-ALC-85430|2019|Ordinary election|3209","CO-ALC-85430|2015|Ordinary election|3210"],"shares":[[0.5204496208017335,0.38095882990249186],[0.40371167294244215,0.3535502958579882],[0.36623376623376624,0.32106782106782106]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":48.37025890926216,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,35.35502958579882,19.136632598171058,0,40.371167294244216,2.9182356105433027,1.5868746637977407,0,0,0,0.6320602474448628],[0,32.106782106782106,0,36.62337662337662,0.11544011544011544,0,0,0,0,0,31.154401154401153]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":67.14571753033292,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-85440","country":"Colombia","region":"Casanare","name":"Villanueva","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.1656854499579445,0.07903696498054558,0.705305121128486],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-85440|2023|Ordinary election|3211","CO-ALC-85440|2019|Ordinary election|3212","CO-ALC-85440|2015|Ordinary election|3213"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-85440|2023|Ordinary election|3211","CO-ALC-85440|2019|Ordinary election|3212","CO-ALC-85440|2015|Ordinary election|3213"],"shares":[[0.33983389402859543,0.318177039529016],[0.3472154669260701,0.3464250972762646],[0.3090309720944495,0.30197792088316466]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":93.0317356420911,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-86001","country":"Colombia","region":"Putumayo","name":"Mocoa","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.108000152166472,1.928280008589219,14.805219275519342],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-86001|2023|Ordinary election|3214","CO-ALC-86001|2019|Ordinary election|3215","CO-ALC-86001|2015|Ordinary election|3216"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-86001|2023|Ordinary election|3214","CO-ALC-86001|2019|Ordinary election|3215","CO-ALC-86001|2015|Ordinary election|3216"],"shares":[[0.2795298056073344,0.24844980408566972],[0.3524586643762078,0.33317586429031565],[0.554383155117999,0.4063309623628056]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":80.38096989285708,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[22.946703693841062,0,0,0,0,0.7760489976033781,0,0,0,0,76.27724730855557],[24.55658149022976,0.541120893278935,33.317586429031564,0,0,0,0,3.3283229546918616,0,0,38.256388232767875],[40.63309623628056,3.928588251919544,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,55.4383155117999]],"volatility_latest":38.796908073391066,"volatility_previous":36.64590938372343,"volatility_mean":37.72140872855725,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-86219","country":"Colombia","region":"Putumayo","name":"Colon","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.5376013419066226,5.316676350958744,7.1746031746031775],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-86219|2023|Ordinary election|3217","CO-ALC-86219|2019|Ordinary election|3218","CO-ALC-86219|2015|Ordinary election|3219"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-86219|2023|Ordinary election|3217","CO-ALC-86219|2019|Ordinary election|3218","CO-ALC-86219|2015|Ordinary election|3219"],"shares":[[0.38859379368185626,0.37321778026279007],[0.43957001743172575,0.3864032539221383],[0.49523809523809526,0.4234920634920635]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":83.82487986054042,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0.05591277606933184,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,99.94408722393067],[16.09529343404997,0,0,0,0,0,38.64032539221383,0,1.3073794305636257,0,43.957001743172576],[42.34920634920635,49.523809523809526,0,0,0,8.126984126984127,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":56.042998256827424,"volatility_previous":83.90470656595004,"volatility_mean":69.97385241138873,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-86320","country":"Colombia","region":"Putumayo","name":"Orito","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.28275622925645,5.037500738203512,4.728816830727659],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-86320|2023|Ordinary election|3220","CO-ALC-86320|2019|Ordinary election|3221","CO-ALC-86320|2015|Ordinary election|3222"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-86320|2023|Ordinary election|3220","CO-ALC-86320|2019|Ordinary election|3221","CO-ALC-86320|2015|Ordinary election|3222"],"shares":[[0.5114182394610393,0.34859067716847475],[0.4701470501387823,0.4197720427567472],[0.30335199125008044,0.25606382294280383]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":41.231071789561554,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,51.141823946103926,0,0,48.85817605389608],[0.8267879288962381,0,0,1.7953109313175457,0,4.476466072166775,41.977204275674715,0,1.1456918443276443,0,49.77853894761708],[4.818889532265328,10.654313839027214,30.335199125008042,3.3712925432670655,0,0,0,5.127710223251625,25.606382294280383,9.824358232001543,10.261854210898797]],"volatility_latest":51.14182394610392,"volatility_previous":85.97035508455977,"volatility_mean":68.55608951533185,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-86568","country":"Colombia","region":"Putumayo","name":"Puerto Asis","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.711997559301349,12.335547188967382,21.947880754410868],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-86568|2023|Ordinary election|3223","CO-ALC-86568|2019|Ordinary election|3224","CO-ALC-86568|2015|Ordinary election|3225"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-86568|2023|Ordinary election|3223","CO-ALC-86568|2019|Ordinary election|3224","CO-ALC-86568|2015|Ordinary election|3225"],"shares":[[0.41358401342384254,0.25646403783082905],[0.3462921443377469,0.2229366724480731],[0.43409044818495235,0.21461164064084365]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":23.386746161439454,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[17.267942948669056,0,0,0,0,25.646403783082906,0,11.753489436351156,0,0,45.33216383189688],[22.29366724480731,0,7.635686788781252,2.039003341934938,0,0,34.62921443377469,0,0,0,33.402428190701805],[18.525654025552626,43.40904481849523,1.921516933684851,2.154735347799635,0,10.50496856621375,0,0,21.461164064084365,2.0229162441695396,0]],"volatility_latest":49.329628860629136,"volatility_previous":77.51382569882759,"volatility_mean":63.42172727972836,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-86569","country":"Colombia","region":"Putumayo","name":"Puerto Caicedo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.322162771050408,15.226130653266331,20.402498265093683],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-86569|2023|Ordinary election|3226","CO-ALC-86569|2019|Ordinary election|3227","CO-ALC-86569|2015|Ordinary election|3228"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-86569|2023|Ordinary election|3226","CO-ALC-86569|2019|Ordinary election|3227","CO-ALC-86569|2015|Ordinary election|3228"],"shares":[[0.3676429174880315,0.30442128977752747],[0.490787269681742,0.3385259631490787],[0.5851839000693962,0.3811589174184594]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":47.99306657440244,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-86571","country":"Colombia","region":"Putumayo","name":"Puerto Guzman","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2025,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,13.806832776778833,14.285714285714285],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2025-02-23 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-86571|CO-ALC-86571-2025-02-23-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6800","CO-ALC-86571|2023|Ordinary election|3229","CO-ALC-86571|2019|Ordinary election|3230"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-86571|CO-ALC-86571-2025-02-23-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6800","CO-ALC-86571|2023|Ordinary election|3229","CO-ALC-86571|2019|Ordinary election|3230","CO-ALC-86571|2015|Ordinary election|3231"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.5246596455175957,0.3865913177498074],[0.5434173669467787,0.4005602240896359]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.46596455175957,0,0,47.53403544824044],[54.34173669467787,0,0,40.056022408963585,0,0,0,4.855275443510737,0.7469654528478058,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":95.14472455648927,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-86573","country":"Colombia","region":"Putumayo","name":"Puerto Leguizamo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.116002968093,1.6037605419604546,6.589990674541497],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-86573|2023|Ordinary election|3232","CO-ALC-86573|2019|Ordinary election|3233","CO-ALC-86573|2015|Ordinary election|3234"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-86573|2023|Ordinary election|3232","CO-ALC-86573|2019|Ordinary election|3233","CO-ALC-86573|2015|Ordinary election|3234"],"shares":[[0.49356913183279744,0.32240910215186747],[0.3792340660859947,0.36319646066639016],[0.3172210133664905,0.25132110662107554]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":42.95135494550958,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-86749","country":"Colombia","region":"Putumayo","name":"Sibundoy","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.4795474325500422,24.060654857756308,0.07283321194464776],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-86749|2023|Ordinary election|3235","CO-ALC-86749|2019|Ordinary election|3236","CO-ALC-86749|2015|Ordinary election|3237"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-86749|2023|Ordinary election|3235","CO-ALC-86749|2019|Ordinary election|3236","CO-ALC-86749|2015|Ordinary election|3237"],"shares":[[0.24791744373989805,0.2331219694143976],[0.46618357487922707,0.22557702630166399],[0.39606700655498905,0.39533867443554255]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":59.43395880974309,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.012433171702101207,19.38331468357578,0,0,0,0,6.465249285092627,0,0,0,74.13900285962949],[22.5577026301664,0,0,0,0,8.668813741277509,22.15512614063339,0,0,0,46.61835748792271],[39.53386744355426,39.606700655498905,1.777130371449381,0,0,14.84340859431901,0,0,4.238892935178441,0,0]],"volatility_latest":46.90396005528256,"volatility_previous":68.7734836285561,"volatility_mean":57.83872184191932,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-86755","country":"Colombia","region":"Putumayo","name":"San Francisco","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.5270758122743686,29.657064471879288,6.087936865839907],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-86755|2023|Ordinary election|3238","CO-ALC-86755|2019|Ordinary election|3239","CO-ALC-86755|2015|Ordinary election|3240"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-86755|2023|Ordinary election|3238","CO-ALC-86755|2019|Ordinary election|3239","CO-ALC-86755|2015|Ordinary election|3240"],"shares":[[0.36712024437656204,0.34184948625381834],[0.5410150891632373,0.24444444444444444],[0.5304396843291995,0.4695603156708005]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":44.88920742243801,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[34.184948625381836,0,6.2760344348792,0,0,8.497639544570953,0,0,0,0,51.041377395168006],[0,3.5665294924554183,0.2194787379972565,0,0,0,24.444444444444443,17.66803840877915,0,0,54.10150891632373],[46.956031567080046,53.043968432919954,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":48.73914386683474,"volatility_previous":96.43347050754458,"volatility_mean":72.58630718718966,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-86757","country":"Colombia","region":"Putumayo","name":"San Miguel (La Dorada)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.54299754299754,7.746895328208165,12.69912163168081],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-86757|2023|Ordinary election|3241","CO-ALC-86757|2019|Ordinary election|3242","CO-ALC-86757|2015|Ordinary election|3243"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-86757|2023|Ordinary election|3241","CO-ALC-86757|2019|Ordinary election|3242","CO-ALC-86757|2015|Ordinary election|3243"],"shares":[[0.5364864864864864,0.36105651105651104],[0.3725606150206978,0.2950916617386162],[0.5608158404049427,0.4338246240881346]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":29.401103562854725,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[53.648648648648646,0,0,0,0,0,0,36.105651105651106,0,0,10.245700245700245],[37.256061502069784,9.875813128326435,0,0,0,0,0.23654642223536368,0,0,29.50916617386162,23.122412773506802],[0,0,0,0,0,56.08158404049427,0,0,0,0.5359535506922734,43.38246240881346]],"volatility_latest":52.49823825222997,"volatility_previous":76.34163367580092,"volatility_mean":64.41993596401545,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-86865","country":"Colombia","region":"Putumayo","name":"Valle Del Guamuez (La Hormiga)","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.31389320891654,23.82057231245166,0.9482252244692475],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-86865|2023|Ordinary election|3244","CO-ALC-86865|2019|Ordinary election|3245","CO-ALC-86865|2015|Ordinary election|3246"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-86865|2023|Ordinary election|3244","CO-ALC-86865|2019|Ordinary election|3245","CO-ALC-86865|2015|Ordinary election|3246"],"shares":[[0.4094090202177294,0.326270088128564],[0.47880194051887787,0.24059621739436124],[0.41159687840899556,0.4021146261643031]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":38.853349292338265,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,40.94090202177294,0,0,0,59.05909797822706],[0,0,0,1.251494058918653,0,0,0,0,0,22.421430078042608,76.32707586303874],[16.145002936980784,0,0,0,0,41.15968784089956,0,0,0,2.4838466056893513,40.21146261643031]],"volatility_latest":40.94090202177294,"volatility_previous":57.304690777880346,"volatility_mean":49.12279639982664,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-86885","country":"Colombia","region":"Putumayo","name":"Villagarzon","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.58954531394989,10.690169253705164,23.53184023119001],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-86885|2023|Ordinary election|3247","CO-ALC-86885|2019|Ordinary election|3248","CO-ALC-86885|2015|Ordinary election|3249"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-86885|2023|Ordinary election|3247","CO-ALC-86885|2019|Ordinary election|3248","CO-ALC-86885|2015|Ordinary election|3249"],"shares":[[0.4245283018867924,0.2386328487472935],[0.4443567482241515,0.3374550556870999],[0.4508205181133244,0.2155021158014243]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":16.430190061997575,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[42.45283018867924,17.050726879059695,0,0,0,4.910300030931023,3.224559232910609,0,0.2938447262604392,0,32.06773894215899],[33.74550556870999,0,3.832324826799965,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,62.422169604490044],[20.466508411600785,45.08205181133244,0,0,0,21.55021158014243,12.901228196924347,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":34.18675548913102,"volatility_previous":79.53349158839922,"volatility_mean":56.86012353876512,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-88564","country":"Colombia","region":"San Andres","name":"Providencia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.0607424071991,17.292549969715317,1.3499480789200362],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-88564|2023|Ordinary election|3250","CO-ALC-88564|2019|Ordinary election|3251","CO-ALC-88564|2015|Ordinary election|3252"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-88564|2023|Ordinary election|3250","CO-ALC-88564|2019|Ordinary election|3251","CO-ALC-88564|2015|Ordinary election|3252"],"shares":[[0.5703037120359955,0.4296962879640045],[0.5766202301635373,0.40369473046638404],[0.5067497403946002,0.4932502596053998]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":31.203973784369698,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,40.369473046638404,0,0,0,57.66202301635372,0,0,0,1.968503937007874],null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-91001","country":"Colombia","region":"Amazonas","name":"Leticia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[19.011630348070707,6.99625539176186,11.373683348796597],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-91001|2023|Ordinary election|3253","CO-ALC-91001|2019|Ordinary election|3254","CO-ALC-91001|2015|Ordinary election|3255"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-91001|2023|Ordinary election|3253","CO-ALC-91001|2019|Ordinary election|3254","CO-ALC-91001|2015|Ordinary election|3255"],"shares":[[0.38921778561531684,0.19910148213460974],[0.2488031473669242,0.17884059344930558],[0.35141625279703104,0.2376794193090651]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":26.7838841937468,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[8.909602384851157,0,0,4.664735273124239,0,0,0,0,0,0,86.42566234202461],[2.3273451201592645,24.88031473669242,7.958477508650519,3.360667393468266,14.19633123192871,1.5262833578233872,0,0,11.205384651846234,0,34.5451959994312],[1.5335916607542432,23.76794193090651,0,0,35.141625279703106,0,8.95049937237352,0,2.264912950935982,4.699012170496098,23.64241663483054]],"volatility_latest":59.76679148694127,"volatility_previous":34.594805590644015,"volatility_mean":47.180798538792644,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-91540","country":"Colombia","region":"Amazonas","name":"Puerto Nariño","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[19.866975130133028,25.178997613365155,11.799801126947298],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-91540|2023|Ordinary election|3256","CO-ALC-91540|2019|Ordinary election|3257","CO-ALC-91540|2015|Ordinary election|3258"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-91540|2023|Ordinary election|3256","CO-ALC-91540|2019|Ordinary election|3257","CO-ALC-91540|2015|Ordinary election|3258"],"shares":[[0.4907460960092539,0.29207634470792365],[0.5542959427207638,0.30250596658711215],[0.43685780576731853,0.3188597944978455]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,49.07460960092539,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,50.92539039907461],[0.6264916467780429,0,0,0,0,1.8496420047732698,0,11.843675417661098,0,30.250596658711217,55.42959427207637],[0,10.175671196552868,0,0,43.68578057673185,0,0,14.252568776930726,0,0,31.885979449784553]],"volatility_latest":49.07460960092539,"volatility_previous":56.27034513255435,"volatility_mean":52.67247736673987,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-94001","country":"Colombia","region":"Guainia","name":"Inirida","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.3331447608272029,11.732272473478503,9.36133814864094],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-94001|2023|Ordinary election|3259","CO-ALC-94001|2019|Ordinary election|3260","CO-ALC-94001|2015|Ordinary election|3261"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-94001|2023|Ordinary election|3259","CO-ALC-94001|2019|Ordinary election|3260","CO-ALC-94001|2015|Ordinary election|3261"],"shares":[[0.42516814381796464,0.4218366962096926],[0.3905639307649358,0.27324120603015073],[0.445067477665843,0.3514540961794336]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":76.72148793298017,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.9365767804387454,0,0,99.06342321956126],[4.759910664433278,0,23.394751535455054,0,0,0,27.324120603015075,2.9592406476828588,0,0,41.561976549413735],[0,44.5067477665843,0.12355065576886523,35.14540961794336,0,0,20.22429195970348,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":57.50144667014752,"volatility_previous":79.65215738452765,"volatility_mean":68.57680202733759,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-94343","country":"Colombia","region":"Guainia","name":"Barrancominas","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":1,"vote_cycles":1,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023],"gaps":[21.01040118870728,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. MISSING ordinary-cycle return(s): [2015, 2019]; no zero or substitute election inserted.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-94343|2023|Ordinary election|3262"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-94343|2023|Ordinary election|3262"],"shares":[[0.4416047548291233,0.2315007429420505],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,44.16047548291233,23.15007429420505,0,0,9.271916790490343,0.1485884101040119,0,0,23.26894502228826],null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-95001","country":"Colombia","region":"Guaviare","name":"San Jose Del Guaviare","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.693087557603683,8.368512540352619,13.577637961673307],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-95001|2023|Ordinary election|3263","CO-ALC-95001|2019|Ordinary election|3264","CO-ALC-95001|2015|Ordinary election|3265"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-95001|2023|Ordinary election|3263","CO-ALC-95001|2019|Ordinary election|3264","CO-ALC-95001|2015|Ordinary election|3265"],"shares":[[0.43594470046082945,0.38901382488479264],[0.41130701100902245,0.32762188560549627],[0.34570865952643964,0.20993227990970656]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":66.57914953582336,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-95015","country":"Colombia","region":"Guaviare","name":"Calamar","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.27683615819209,5.438848920863315,26.92307692307692],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-95015|2023|Ordinary election|3266","CO-ALC-95015|2019|Ordinary election|3267","CO-ALC-95015|2015|Ordinary election|3268"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-95015|2023|Ordinary election|3266","CO-ALC-95015|2019|Ordinary election|3267","CO-ALC-95015|2015|Ordinary election|3268"],"shares":[[0.2888135593220339,0.25604519774011303],[0.4365467625899281,0.38215827338129493],[0.45708836617927523,0.18785759694850604]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":68.5496796825903,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,13.423728813559322,0,0,0,0,0,0.04519774011299435,0,86.5310734463277],[0,38.21582733812949,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,61.78417266187051],[18.785759694850604,14.84424666242848,45.708836617927524,0,0,14.113159567705022,0,0,0,6.547997457088366,0]],"volatility_latest":38.2158273381295,"volatility_previous":85.15575333757151,"volatility_mean":61.685790337850506,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-95025","country":"Colombia","region":"Guaviare","name":"El Retorno","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[61.37225795810655,5.350500715307582,14.10852713178295],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-95025|2023|Ordinary election|3269","CO-ALC-95025|2019|Ordinary election|3270","CO-ALC-95025|2015|Ordinary election|3271"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-95025|2023|Ordinary election|3269","CO-ALC-95025|2019|Ordinary election|3270","CO-ALC-95025|2015|Ordinary election|3271"],"shares":[[0.8068612897905328,0.19313871020946727],[0.46437768240343347,0.41087267525035764],[0.5705426356589147,0.4294573643410853]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[42.945736434108525,0,57.054263565891475,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-95200","country":"Colombia","region":"Guaviare","name":"Miraflores","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[36.91460055096418,27.906976744186046,1.4743263853584097],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-95200|2023|Ordinary election|3272","CO-ALC-95200|2019|Ordinary election|3273","CO-ALC-95200|2015|Ordinary election|3274"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-95200|2023|Ordinary election|3272","CO-ALC-95200|2019|Ordinary election|3273","CO-ALC-95200|2015|Ordinary election|3274"],"shares":[[0.6628099173553719,0.29366391184573004],[0.6385658914728682,0.3594961240310077],[0.3385866802236909,0.3238434163701068]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,4.352617079889807,0,0,0,0,95.64738292011019],[0,63.85658914728682,0,0,0,0,0,0.1937984496124031,0,0,35.94961240310077],[27.402135231316727,32.38434163701068,5.134722928317235,33.85866802236909,0,0,0,1.2201321809862735,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":64.05038759689923,"volatility_previous":67.42185991337692,"volatility_mean":65.73612375513807,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-97001","country":"Colombia","region":"Vaupes","name":"Mitu","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.958069062720227,10.288341795191108,13.861164068632952],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-97001|2023|Ordinary election|3275","CO-ALC-97001|2019|Ordinary election|3276","CO-ALC-97001|2015|Ordinary election|3277"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-97001|2023|Ordinary election|3275","CO-ALC-97001|2019|Ordinary election|3276","CO-ALC-97001|2015|Ordinary election|3277"],"shares":[[0.3977272727272727,0.2681465821000705],[0.3530031612223393,0.25011974327042824],[0.46226309296848717,0.32365145228215764]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":38.76269808473618,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,10.59725158562368,22.815362931642003,0,0,26.814658210007046,39.77272727272727,0,0,0,0],[0.5460293131526008,13.8519015231344,25.01197432704282,0,0,0,0,0,0.39275792700450235,35.30031612223393,24.897020787431746],[0,19.468431086688348,32.365145228215766,46.22630929684872,1.9401143882471683,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":66.58738548273432,"volatility_previous":61.13612414982278,"volatility_mean":63.86175481627855,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-97161","country":"Colombia","region":"Vaupes","name":"Caruru","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.341991341991346,15.73426573426574,27.723735408560312],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-97161|2023|Ordinary election|3278","CO-ALC-97161|2019|Ordinary election|3279","CO-ALC-97161|2015|Ordinary election|3280"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-97161|2023|Ordinary election|3278","CO-ALC-97161|2019|Ordinary election|3279","CO-ALC-97161|2015|Ordinary election|3280"],"shares":[[0.41385281385281386,0.30043290043290044],[0.5201048951048951,0.3627622377622377],[0.5321011673151751,0.25486381322957197]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":28.510759668347198,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,12.467532467532468,0,16.103896103896105,0,0,0,30.043290043290042,0,0,41.38528138528139],[0.6993006993006993,52.01048951048951,5.944055944055944,36.27622377622377,0,2.8846153846153846,2.1853146853146854,0,0,0,0],[0,25.486381322957197,0,53.21011673151751,0,5.544747081712062,6.22568093385214,9.53307392996109,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":71.42857142857143,"volatility_previous":33.16746483088896,"volatility_mean":52.298018129730195,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-97666","country":"Colombia","region":"Vaupes","name":"Taraira","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[21.819870009285047,0.8712487899322312,7.386990077177515],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-97666|2023|Ordinary election|3281","CO-ALC-97666|2019|Ordinary election|3282","CO-ALC-97666|2015|Ordinary election|3283"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-97666|2023|Ordinary election|3281","CO-ALC-97666|2019|Ordinary election|3282","CO-ALC-97666|2015|Ordinary election|3283"],"shares":[[0.5998142989786444,0.3816155988857939],[0.3697967086156824,0.36108422071636015],[0.5369349503858876,0.46306504961411243]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":29.54002174865775,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,1.8570102135561746,0,38.16155988857939,59.98142989786444,0,0,0,0],[9.68054211035818,0,0,36.979670861568245,17.23136495643756,0,36.108422071636014,0,0,0,0],[0,46.30650496141124,53.69349503858876,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":62.034567714807814,"volatility_previous":100.0,"volatility_mean":81.01728385740391,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-99001","country":"Colombia","region":"Vichada","name":"Puerto Carreño","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.343846293275334,12.78615887751873,4.155435759209347],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-99001|2023|Ordinary election|3284","CO-ALC-99001|2019|Ordinary election|3285","CO-ALC-99001|2015|Ordinary election|3286"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-99001|2023|Ordinary election|3284","CO-ALC-99001|2019|Ordinary election|3285","CO-ALC-99001|2015|Ordinary election|3286"],"shares":[[0.35798441181801705,0.2645459488852637],[0.453950838696065,0.32608924992087773],[0.28009883198562446,0.238544474393531]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":50.71150492429124,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-99524","country":"Colombia","region":"Vichada","name":"La Primavera","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.6391752577319565,2.563559322033896,23.735571878279117],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-99524|2023|Ordinary election|3287","CO-ALC-99524|2019|Ordinary election|3288","CO-ALC-99524|2015|Ordinary election|3289"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-99524|2023|Ordinary election|3287","CO-ALC-99524|2019|Ordinary election|3288","CO-ALC-99524|2015|Ordinary election|3289"],"shares":[[0.32474226804123707,0.27835051546391754],[0.4822033898305084,0.4565677966101695],[0.5429171038824764,0.3055613850996852]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":70.36934930461372,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,32.47422680412371,5.313243457573354,0,27.835051546391753,0,0,0,0,0,34.37747819191118],null,[0,0,0,0,15.15215110178384,0,0,0,0,0,84.84784889821616]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-99624","country":"Colombia","region":"Vichada","name":"Santa Rosalia","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.094339622641513,2.04081632653061,5.826086956521742],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-99624|2023|Ordinary election|3290","CO-ALC-99624|2019|Ordinary election|3291","CO-ALC-99624|2015|Ordinary election|3292"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-99624|2023|Ordinary election|3290","CO-ALC-99624|2019|Ordinary election|3291","CO-ALC-99624|2015|Ordinary election|3292"],"shares":[[0.46528301886792456,0.3343396226415094],[0.3626373626373626,0.34222919937205654],[0.41956521739130437,0.36130434782608695]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":54.742713164018674,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,33.43396226415094,0.03773584905660377,46.528301886792455,16.37735849056604,0,3.6226415094339623,0,0,0],[0,29.513343799058084,0,0,0,0,0,36.26373626373626,0,0,34.22291993720565],[0,36.130434782608695,0,0,21.91304347826087,0,0,0,0,0,41.95652173913044]],"volatility_latest":96.37735849056604,"volatility_previous":36.26373626373626,"volatility_mean":66.32054737715114,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-99773","country":"Colombia","region":"Vichada","name":"Cumaribo","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.6715116279069768,0.41181109261368576,2.4317723266433013],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-99773|2023|Ordinary election|3293","CO-ALC-99773|2019|Ordinary election|3294","CO-ALC-99773|2015|Ordinary election|3295"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-99773|2023|Ordinary election|3293","CO-ALC-99773|2019|Ordinary election|3294","CO-ALC-99773|2015|Ordinary election|3295"],"shares":[[0.1957122093023256,0.17899709302325584],[0.29186015946727417,0.2877420485411373],[0.33651906127216735,0.3122013380057343]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BWJDHW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/QVG0NB","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K"],"comparison_ci":93.15186231403689,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[8.561046511627907,1.2936046511627908,0,0,1.7805232558139534,10.523255813953488,0,17.899709302325583,0,0,59.941860465116285],[0,0,0,0,0,28.77420485411373,0,26.119337597476562,0,0,45.10645754840971],[2.6441541892322395,33.65190612721673,0,0,0,1.2318148030158225,0,11.298715089731337,2.73972602739726,1.9220558564298609,46.51162790697674]],"volatility_latest":26.470577335311226,"volatility_previous":42.36301255884313,"volatility_mean":34.41679494707718,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05001","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Medellin","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.131339846910198,16.50513885778087,10.250342486044703],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05001|2023|Ordinary election|3296","CO-CON-05001|2019|Ordinary election|3297","CO-CON-05001|2015|Ordinary election|3298"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05001|2023|Ordinary election|3296","CO-CON-05001|2019|Ordinary election|3297","CO-CON-05001|2015|Ordinary election|3298"],"shares":[[0.29361659095152154,0.21230319248241958],[0.2808765107972429,0.1158251222194342],[0.24943397784748192,0.1469305529870349]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":45.72310092957574,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05002","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Abejorral","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.334325128482554,1.2931034482758612,5.535990984645725],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05002|2023|Ordinary election|3299","CO-CON-05002|2019|Ordinary election|3300","CO-CON-05002|2015|Ordinary election|3301"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05002|2023|Ordinary election|3299","CO-CON-05002|2019|Ordinary election|3300","CO-CON-05002|2015|Ordinary election|3301"],"shares":[[0.3552880714092507,0.23194482012442522],[0.2260237068965517,0.2130926724137931],[0.29285814903507534,0.23749823918861812]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":58.28937394981568,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05004","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Abriaqui","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.603186097031134,26.33895818048423,20.76547231270358],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05004|2023|Ordinary election|3302","CO-CON-05004|2019|Ordinary election|3303","CO-CON-05004|2015|Ordinary election|3304"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05004|2023|Ordinary election|3302","CO-CON-05004|2019|Ordinary election|3303","CO-CON-05004|2015|Ordinary election|3304"],"shares":[[0.4525706010137581,0.3765387400434468],[0.5150403521643434,0.25165077035950106],[0.4527687296416938,0.24511400651465798]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":27.29926828182846,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05021|2023|Ordinary election|3305","CO-CON-05021|2019|Ordinary election|3306","CO-CON-05021|2015|Ordinary election|3307"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05021|2023|Ordinary election|3305","CO-CON-05021|2019|Ordinary election|3306","CO-CON-05021|2015|Ordinary election|3307"],"shares":[[0.3225917038052794,0.20843332190606786],[0.2614942528735632,0.22916666666666669],[0.2561344537815126,0.254453781512605]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":60.81931388575668,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05030","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Amaga","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.880212526163259,1.9641878311712055,6.457274826789838],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05030|2023|Ordinary election|3308","CO-CON-05030|2019|Ordinary election|3309","CO-CON-05030|2015|Ordinary election|3310"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05030|2023|Ordinary election|3308","CO-CON-05030|2019|Ordinary election|3309","CO-CON-05030|2015|Ordinary election|3310"],"shares":[[0.23659636129447756,0.19779423603284496],[0.26338388452402706,0.24374200621231498],[0.21265588914549652,0.14808314087759814]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":82.1844432613585,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05031","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Amalfi","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.098600932711527,15.231788079470197,1.0547233261999374],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05031|2023|Ordinary election|3311","CO-CON-05031|2019|Ordinary election|3312","CO-CON-05031|2015|Ordinary election|3313"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05031|2023|Ordinary election|3311","CO-CON-05031|2019|Ordinary election|3312","CO-CON-05031|2015|Ordinary election|3313"],"shares":[[0.21352431712191872,0.19253830779480346],[0.296219646799117,0.143901766004415],[0.22057474778355243,0.21002751452155305]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":70.32915341956016,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05034","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Andes","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.84077298265111,9.968010236724249,5.05231874187357],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05034|2023|Ordinary election|3314","CO-CON-05034|2019|Ordinary election|3315","CO-CON-05034|2015|Ordinary election|3316"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05034|2023|Ordinary election|3314","CO-CON-05034|2019|Ordinary election|3315","CO-CON-05034|2015|Ordinary election|3316"],"shares":[[0.2554176699388776,0.1870099401123665],[0.2531030070377479,0.15342290467050546],[0.2862980620395022,0.23577487462076652]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":61.999506326023514,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05036|2023|Ordinary election|3317","CO-CON-05036|2019|Ordinary election|3318","CO-CON-05036|2015|Ordinary election|3319"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05036|2023|Ordinary election|3317","CO-CON-05036|2019|Ordinary election|3318","CO-CON-05036|2015|Ordinary election|3319"],"shares":[[0.266548463356974,0.23315602836879432],[0.2239812371738493,0.21459982409850484],[0.17093759421163704,0.15315043714199578]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.68569968876237,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05038","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Angostura","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.4473813020068533,5.206333973128601,13.715405339211362],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05038|2023|Ordinary election|3320","CO-CON-05038|2019|Ordinary election|3321","CO-CON-05038|2015|Ordinary election|3322"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05038|2023|Ordinary election|3320","CO-CON-05038|2019|Ordinary election|3321","CO-CON-05038|2015|Ordinary election|3322"],"shares":[[0.1627508565834557,0.1382770435633872],[0.2531190019193858,0.20105566218809978],[0.3235366152338966,0.186382561841783]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":77.99065246468085,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05040|2023|Ordinary election|3323","CO-CON-05040|2019|Ordinary election|3324","CO-CON-05040|2015|Ordinary election|3325"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05040|2023|Ordinary election|3323","CO-CON-05040|2019|Ordinary election|3324","CO-CON-05040|2015|Ordinary election|3325"],"shares":[[0.20009996667777408,0.17360879706764412],[0.39053941908713696,0.20149377593360995],[0.2743913600585759,0.19970712062969065]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":59.961590672487695,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05042","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Antioquia","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.693399082965655,5.076951951951951,6.659597030752915],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05042|2023|Ordinary election|3326","CO-CON-05042|2019|Ordinary election|3327","CO-CON-05042|2015|Ordinary election|3328"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05042|2023|Ordinary election|3326","CO-CON-05042|2019|Ordinary election|3327","CO-CON-05042|2015|Ordinary election|3328"],"shares":[[0.30011246647633877,0.14317847564668224],[0.23048048048048048,0.17971096096096098],[0.21569459172852595,0.1490986214209968]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":41.974576307798664,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05044","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Anza","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.2055137844611536,6.001765225066194,4.4228356336260966],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05044|2023|Ordinary election|3329","CO-CON-05044|2019|Ordinary election|3330","CO-CON-05044|2015|Ordinary election|3331"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05044|2023|Ordinary election|3329","CO-CON-05044|2019|Ordinary election|3330","CO-CON-05044|2015|Ordinary election|3331"],"shares":[[0.22631578947368422,0.20426065162907267],[0.2724330685495734,0.21241541629891145],[0.2553324968632371,0.21110414052697618]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":82.16939299220421,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[8.746867167919799,17.36842105263158,8.596491228070175,9.899749373433584,20.426065162907268,0,0,11.253132832080201,0,0,23.709273182957393],[8.031774051191526,27.24330685495734,16.6519564577817,8.002353633421595,21.241541629891145,0,0,13.915857605177994,0,0,4.913209767578699],[13.331242158092849,25.533249686323714,16.844416562107906,18.601003764115433,21.110414052697617,0,0,0,0,0,4.579673776662484]],"volatility_latest":21.408552272118957,"volatility_previous":16.090578341921365,"volatility_mean":18.749565307020163,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05045","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Apartado","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.372973610265078,3.433602347762289,3.4672699552451682],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05045|2023|Ordinary election|3332","CO-CON-05045|2019|Ordinary election|3333","CO-CON-05045|2015|Ordinary election|3334"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05045|2023|Ordinary election|3332","CO-CON-05045|2019|Ordinary election|3333","CO-CON-05045|2015|Ordinary election|3334"],"shares":[[0.180955375213692,0.08722563911104125],[0.14648359710722147,0.11214757362959858],[0.13483007918162593,0.10015737962917426]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":64.99704066993876,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[8.305987306203454,18.095537521369202,5.574659566524533,0,2.23222180739227,6.083590418738087,8.722563911104125,8.195948203022146,5.584484486451435,0,37.205006779194754],[4.25112671627712,14.648359710722147,9.92768053663138,8.131223142228277,0,11.214757362959858,7.372392830940153,4.297243475526674,3.7103029032596164,4.714390525102191,31.732522796352583],[10.00098362268234,9.17719962622338,13.483007918162594,6.7476516008459155,2.2500368858505877,8.471450351645109,10.015737962917425,5.572222495450745,5.523041361333792,3.622190527713569,25.136477647174544]],"volatility_latest":22.32980158165909,"volatility_previous":17.28628378376254,"volatility_mean":19.808042682710813,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05051","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Arboletes","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.340602284527517,5.02289850790368,3.2358431860609826],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05051|2023|Ordinary election|3335","CO-CON-05051|2019|Ordinary election|3336","CO-CON-05051|2015|Ordinary election|3337"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05051|2023|Ordinary election|3335","CO-CON-05051|2019|Ordinary election|3336","CO-CON-05051|2015|Ordinary election|3337"],"shares":[[0.20726895119418484,0.16386292834890967],[0.2424287191608805,0.19219973408184368],[0.22490888078940352,0.1925504489287937]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":77.82592379153144,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05055","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Argelia","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.606741573033705,10.13623978201635,10.852487634565026],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05055|2023|Ordinary election|3338","CO-CON-05055|2019|Ordinary election|3339","CO-CON-05055|2015|Ordinary election|3340"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05055|2023|Ordinary election|3338","CO-CON-05055|2019|Ordinary election|3339","CO-CON-05055|2015|Ordinary election|3340"],"shares":[[0.3391215526046987,0.1930541368743616],[0.285558583106267,0.18419618528610354],[0.32121035787023566,0.21268548152458538]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":35.54917179059185,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05059","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Armenia","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[23.79873073436083,4.367004852227613,24.797843665768195],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05059|2023|Ordinary election|3341","CO-CON-05059|2019|Ordinary election|3342","CO-CON-05059|2015|Ordinary election|3343"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05059|2023|Ordinary election|3341","CO-CON-05059|2019|Ordinary election|3342","CO-CON-05059|2015|Ordinary election|3343"],"shares":[[0.41704442429737076,0.17905711695376247],[0.28892809880899867,0.24525805028672257],[0.5107816711590296,0.2628032345013477]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":9.654378685692,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05079|2023|Ordinary election|3344","CO-CON-05079|2019|Ordinary election|3345","CO-CON-05079|2015|Ordinary election|3346"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05079|2023|Ordinary election|3344","CO-CON-05079|2019|Ordinary election|3345","CO-CON-05079|2015|Ordinary election|3346"],"shares":[[0.16567450307738876,0.16517001311673898],[0.1909318255953028,0.14336196585843208],[0.23255696202531645,0.18010126582278482]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":90.09038924114788,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05086|2023|Ordinary election|3347","CO-CON-05086|2019|Ordinary election|3348","CO-CON-05086|2015|Ordinary election|3349"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05086|2023|Ordinary election|3347","CO-CON-05086|2019|Ordinary election|3348","CO-CON-05086|2015|Ordinary election|3349"],"shares":[[0.43832731648616124,0.27256317689530685],[0.3909243697478992,0.27092436974789913],[0.5246636771300449,0.23490858916867885]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":17.78300372467537,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05088|2023|Ordinary election|3350","CO-CON-05088|2019|Ordinary election|3351","CO-CON-05088|2015|Ordinary election|3352"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05088|2023|Ordinary election|3350","CO-CON-05088|2019|Ordinary election|3351","CO-CON-05088|2015|Ordinary election|3352"],"shares":[[0.20913835339226755,0.11708027123939362],[0.19462577280419993,0.15448312782785895],[0.19315764004639407,0.13628647581592915]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":63.51762039616342,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05091|2023|Ordinary election|3353","CO-CON-05091|2019|Ordinary election|3354","CO-CON-05091|2015|Ordinary election|3355"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05091|2023|Ordinary election|3353","CO-CON-05091|2019|Ordinary election|3354","CO-CON-05091|2015|Ordinary election|3355"],"shares":[[0.18208417735764124,0.1730812514067072],[0.28748481166464157,0.19125151883353586],[0.2530176415970288,0.2107706592386258]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.75177917213378,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05093","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Betulia","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.162558056448731,3.627311522048366,10.251346499102334],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05093|2023|Ordinary election|3356","CO-CON-05093|2019|Ordinary election|3357","CO-CON-05093|2015|Ordinary election|3358"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05093|2023|Ordinary election|3356","CO-CON-05093|2019|Ordinary election|3357","CO-CON-05093|2015|Ordinary election|3358"],"shares":[[0.23544122901036083,0.18381564844587353],[0.20519203413940257,0.16891891891891891],[0.25224416517055653,0.14973070017953322]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":73.9456852980301,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05101","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Bolivar","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.747547754259166,33.43685300207039,3.878875270367697],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05101|2023|Ordinary election|3359","CO-CON-05101|2019|Ordinary election|3360","CO-CON-05101|2015|Ordinary election|3361"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05101|2023|Ordinary election|3359","CO-CON-05101|2019|Ordinary election|3360","CO-CON-05101|2015|Ordinary election|3361"],"shares":[[0.383686112545173,0.2162106350025813],[0.47837589141936965,0.14400736139866577],[0.24686373467916364,0.20807498197548668]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05107","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Briceño","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.97764676983542,20.53915275994865,24.75124378109453],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05107|2023|Ordinary election|3362","CO-CON-05107|2019|Ordinary election|3363","CO-CON-05107|2015|Ordinary election|3364"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05107|2023|Ordinary election|3362","CO-CON-05107|2019|Ordinary election|3363","CO-CON-05107|2015|Ordinary election|3364"],"shares":[[0.367722918201916,0.15794645050356176],[0.4336328626444159,0.2282413350449294],[0.4555348258706468,0.2080223880597015]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05113|2023|Ordinary election|3365","CO-CON-05113|2019|Ordinary election|3366","CO-CON-05113|2015|Ordinary election|3367"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05113|2023|Ordinary election|3365","CO-CON-05113|2019|Ordinary election|3366","CO-CON-05113|2015|Ordinary election|3367"],"shares":[[0.4504785221455597,0.2314711773870465],[0.5481308411214953,0.3149532710280374],[0.46659707724425886,0.4384133611691023]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05120","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Caceres","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.324874976847568,8.419093496825049,3.6607819776887247],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05120|2023|Ordinary election|3368","CO-CON-05120|2019|Ordinary election|3369","CO-CON-05120|2015|Ordinary election|3370"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05120|2023|Ordinary election|3368","CO-CON-05120|2019|Ordinary election|3369","CO-CON-05120|2015|Ordinary election|3370"],"shares":[[0.2660677903315429,0.22281904056306723],[0.24458068754105539,0.1603897525728049],[0.27109281923535145,0.2344849994584642]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":72.56634383537536,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[8.316354880533432,22.281904056306722,13.696980922393037,0,2.9357288386738283,13.41915169475829,26.60677903315429,0,4.676791998518244,0,8.066308575662159],[12.765491569958398,24.45806875410554,6.163783665425881,7.41186774687979,11.977227939566456,16.03897525728049,7.3242828990584625,2.014451499890519,4.050799211736369,7.795051456098095,0],[7.386548250839381,23.44849994584642,27.109281923535146,8.902848478284415,6.400953103000108,9.292754251055994,6.877504603054262,5.642802989277591,2.5343875230152713,2.4044189320914113,0]],"volatility_latest":35.50799475350701,"volatility_previous":26.064830478900962,"volatility_mean":30.78641261620399,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05125","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Caicedo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.0686070686070686,2.3626373626373613,4.339502233567323],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05125|2023|Ordinary election|3371","CO-CON-05125|2019|Ordinary election|3372","CO-CON-05125|2015|Ordinary election|3373"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05125|2023|Ordinary election|3371","CO-CON-05125|2019|Ordinary election|3372","CO-CON-05125|2015|Ordinary election|3373"],"shares":[[0.23414760914760915,0.16346153846153846],[0.18434065934065935,0.16071428571428573],[0.24218251435864707,0.19878749202297386]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":73.08047163343909,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05129","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Caldas","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.011230907457322914,1.6367411750335883,1.8016240917907744],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05129|2023|Ordinary election|3374","CO-CON-05129|2019|Ordinary election|3375","CO-CON-05129|2015|Ordinary election|3376"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05129|2023|Ordinary election|3374","CO-CON-05129|2019|Ordinary election|3375","CO-CON-05129|2015|Ordinary election|3376"],"shares":[[0.1148641060197664,0.11475179694519318],[0.17717112495419568,0.16080371320385978],[0.20791005030081863,0.1898938093829109]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":96.61038346918225,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05134","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Campamento","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.5378662244333903,3.8980070339976542,5.4987212276214805],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05134|2023|Ordinary election|3377","CO-CON-05134|2019|Ordinary election|3378","CO-CON-05134|2015|Ordinary election|3379"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05134|2023|Ordinary election|3377","CO-CON-05134|2019|Ordinary election|3378","CO-CON-05134|2015|Ordinary election|3379"],"shares":[[0.2357656163626313,0.20038695411829738],[0.28311840562719814,0.2441383352872216],[0.2854859335038363,0.2304987212276215]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.79003016189262,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05138|2023|Ordinary election|3380","CO-CON-05138|2019|Ordinary election|3381","CO-CON-05138|2015|Ordinary election|3382"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05138|2023|Ordinary election|3380","CO-CON-05138|2019|Ordinary election|3381","CO-CON-05138|2015|Ordinary election|3382"],"shares":[[0.2915356982487652,0.26672653794342166],[0.32900488557469787,0.16495242993057344],[0.5294552989934873,0.23342214328004737]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":53.14772577610628,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05142|2023|Ordinary election|3383","CO-CON-05142|2019|Ordinary election|3384","CO-CON-05142|2015|Ordinary election|3385"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05142|2023|Ordinary election|3383","CO-CON-05142|2019|Ordinary election|3384","CO-CON-05142|2015|Ordinary election|3385"],"shares":[[0.25841088045812455,0.22440944881889763],[0.3091495364772269,0.2712615880693269],[0.2891014975041597,0.2753743760399334]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":83.43002217383561,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05145","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Caramanta","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.8431372549019578,12.69337564458548,3.019662921348317],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05145|2023|Ordinary election|3386","CO-CON-05145|2019|Ordinary election|3387","CO-CON-05145|2015|Ordinary election|3388"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05145|2023|Ordinary election|3386","CO-CON-05145|2019|Ordinary election|3387","CO-CON-05145|2015|Ordinary election|3388"],"shares":[[0.2949019607843137,0.27647058823529413],[0.3772312574375248,0.25029750099167],[0.2903792134831461,0.2601825842696629]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":73.92069330774174,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05147|2023|Ordinary election|3389","CO-CON-05147|2019|Ordinary election|3390","CO-CON-05147|2015|Ordinary election|3391"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05147|2023|Ordinary election|3389","CO-CON-05147|2019|Ordinary election|3390","CO-CON-05147|2015|Ordinary election|3391"],"shares":[[0.16188496188496188,0.15513975513975514],[0.25368521160247265,0.128340466000951],[0.14693530381159958,0.1426293126362235]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":78.95942657744092,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05148","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Carmen De Viboral","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[null,7.325973486073263,10.045049362599446],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05148|2023|Ordinary election|3392","CO-CON-05148|2019|Ordinary election|3393","CO-CON-05148|2015|Ordinary election|3394"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05148|2023|Ordinary election|3392","CO-CON-05148|2019|Ordinary election|3393","CO-CON-05148|2015|Ordinary election|3394"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.25793339184257935,0.1846736569818467],[0.2944503019265791,0.19399980830058466]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05150|2023|Ordinary election|3395","CO-CON-05150|2019|Ordinary election|3396","CO-CON-05150|2015|Ordinary election|3397"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05150|2023|Ordinary election|3395","CO-CON-05150|2019|Ordinary election|3396","CO-CON-05150|2015|Ordinary election|3397"],"shares":[[0.2512720156555773,0.1894324853228963],[0.27155172413793105,0.23017241379310346],[0.2672998643147897,0.19764812302125734]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":71.75865728379495,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05154|2023|Ordinary election|3398","CO-CON-05154|2019|Ordinary election|3399","CO-CON-05154|2015|Ordinary election|3400"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05154|2023|Ordinary election|3398","CO-CON-05154|2019|Ordinary election|3399","CO-CON-05154|2015|Ordinary election|3400"],"shares":[[0.1401787229229116,0.11328544765567558],[0.15098239057810997,0.14568823962403035],[0.1535406230548063,0.13457035302486883]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":90.18938127522038,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05172|2023|Ordinary election|3401","CO-CON-05172|2019|Ordinary election|3402","CO-CON-05172|2015|Ordinary election|3403"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05172|2023|Ordinary election|3401","CO-CON-05172|2019|Ordinary election|3402","CO-CON-05172|2015|Ordinary election|3403"],"shares":[[0.14767644929079526,0.14405588448268516],[0.17979334098737085,0.1460849598163031],[0.15702679175935777,0.12288422477995939]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":92.1504450329369,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05190","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Cisneros","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.704918032786885,7.464230305119806,4.83373328762427],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05190|2023|Ordinary election|3404","CO-CON-05190|2019|Ordinary election|3405","CO-CON-05190|2015|Ordinary election|3406"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05190|2023|Ordinary election|3404","CO-CON-05190|2019|Ordinary election|3405","CO-CON-05190|2015|Ordinary election|3406"],"shares":[[0.33667273831208255,0.2096235579842137],[0.38751939320806755,0.3128770901568695],[0.2953376756942064,0.24700034281796365]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":48.272033800147504,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05197","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Cocorna","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.215487350712724,4.115669132481507,10.470248059656065],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05197|2023|Ordinary election|3407","CO-CON-05197|2019|Ordinary election|3408","CO-CON-05197|2015|Ordinary election|3409"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05197|2023|Ordinary election|3407","CO-CON-05197|2019|Ordinary election|3408","CO-CON-05197|2015|Ordinary election|3409"],"shares":[[0.2438679851033774,0.18171311159625017],[0.2848688634835239,0.24371217215870883],[0.34637041546187797,0.24166793486531732]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":69.94491021931154,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05206|2023|Ordinary election|3410","CO-CON-05206|2019|Ordinary election|3411","CO-CON-05206|2015|Ordinary election|3412"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05206|2023|Ordinary election|3410","CO-CON-05206|2019|Ordinary election|3411","CO-CON-05206|2015|Ordinary election|3412"],"shares":[[0.25067024128686327,0.2084450402144772],[0.40039370078740155,0.2866141732283464],[0.2584362139917695,0.25637860082304526]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":70.16262988598972,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05209|2023|Ordinary election|3413","CO-CON-05209|2019|Ordinary election|3414","CO-CON-05209|2015|Ordinary election|3415"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05209|2023|Ordinary election|3413","CO-CON-05209|2019|Ordinary election|3414","CO-CON-05209|2015|Ordinary election|3415"],"shares":[[0.18010885700148443,0.17746989938974106],[0.24746694143912074,0.23836510389833418],[0.28454452405322417,0.16308427157966565]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":91.77002446168109,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05212","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Copacabana","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.31670395444111854,0.36338409699051866,0.26284751474304713],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05212|2023|Ordinary election|3416","CO-CON-05212|2019|Ordinary election|3417","CO-CON-05212|2015|Ordinary election|3418"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05212|2023|Ordinary election|3416","CO-CON-05212|2019|Ordinary election|3417","CO-CON-05212|2015|Ordinary election|3418"],"shares":[[0.15164017781910102,0.14847313827468983],[0.16983251296620527,0.1661986719963001],[0.1763100252737995,0.17368155012636902]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":98.37338823381934,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05234","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Dabeiba","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.647497567830504,3.576143045721828,6.18181818181818],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05234|2023|Ordinary election|3419","CO-CON-05234|2019|Ordinary election|3420","CO-CON-05234|2015|Ordinary election|3421"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05234|2023|Ordinary election|3419","CO-CON-05234|2019|Ordinary election|3420","CO-CON-05234|2015|Ordinary election|3421"],"shares":[[0.24797319208734192,0.14149821640903687],[0.20196807872314892,0.16620664826593065],[0.2631272727272727,0.20130909090909094]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":59.60238363701665,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05237","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Don Matias","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.41568139390168,7.509429649102756,35.003977724741446],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05237|2023|Ordinary election|3422","CO-CON-05237|2019|Ordinary election|3423","CO-CON-05237|2015|Ordinary election|3424"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05237|2023|Ordinary election|3422","CO-CON-05237|2019|Ordinary election|3423","CO-CON-05237|2015|Ordinary election|3424"],"shares":[[0.3681393901680149,0.20398257622899812],[0.29500514344496515,0.2199108469539376],[0.6207239459029436,0.270684168655529]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":21.986822482270107,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05240","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Ebejico","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.947127937336813,13.503514613392529,9.039027982326953],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05240|2023|Ordinary election|3425","CO-CON-05240|2019|Ordinary election|3426","CO-CON-05240|2015|Ordinary election|3427"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05240|2023|Ordinary election|3425","CO-CON-05240|2019|Ordinary election|3426","CO-CON-05240|2015|Ordinary election|3427"],"shares":[[0.33730417754569186,0.25783289817232374],[0.3921568627450981,0.2571217166111728],[0.32639911634756996,0.23600883652430046]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":51.3838302767373,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05250","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"El Bagre","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.3258171286719076,2.5685425685425685,0.4793639658599318],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05250|2023|Ordinary election|3428","CO-CON-05250|2019|Ordinary election|3429","CO-CON-05250|2015|Ordinary election|3430"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05250|2023|Ordinary election|3428","CO-CON-05250|2019|Ordinary election|3429","CO-CON-05250|2015|Ordinary election|3430"],"shares":[[0.17061439801406703,0.16735622672734796],[0.15976911976911976,0.13408369408369408],[0.15959312521922134,0.154799485560622]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":94.93005277824047,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05264","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Entrerrios","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.2110091743119256,5.112687813021704,17.160611854684507],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05264|2023|Ordinary election|3431","CO-CON-05264|2019|Ordinary election|3432","CO-CON-05264|2015|Ordinary election|3433"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05264|2023|Ordinary election|3431","CO-CON-05264|2019|Ordinary election|3432","CO-CON-05264|2015|Ordinary election|3433"],"shares":[[0.24732415902140673,0.21521406727828749],[0.25125208681135225,0.20012520868113523],[0.36496175908221795,0.19335564053537285]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":74.11763483018942,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05266|2023|Ordinary election|3434","CO-CON-05266|2019|Ordinary election|3435","CO-CON-05266|2015|Ordinary election|3436"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05266|2023|Ordinary election|3434","CO-CON-05266|2019|Ordinary election|3435","CO-CON-05266|2015|Ordinary election|3436"],"shares":[[0.30074416217603284,0.24472766325473536],[0.3015926656710235,0.22823847470375985],[0.30599516644577845,0.19264052389490918]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":66.52418955097774,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05282|2023|Ordinary election|3437","CO-CON-05282|2019|Ordinary election|3438","CO-CON-05282|2015|Ordinary election|3439"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05282|2023|Ordinary election|3437","CO-CON-05282|2019|Ordinary election|3438","CO-CON-05282|2015|Ordinary election|3439"],"shares":[[0.23747723132969034,0.1407103825136612],[0.2935790868570052,0.20756535357185882],[0.3002101099987641,0.2635026572735138]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":56.23251272615678,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05284|2023|Ordinary election|3440","CO-CON-05284|2019|Ordinary election|3441","CO-CON-05284|2015|Ordinary election|3442"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05284|2023|Ordinary election|3440","CO-CON-05284|2019|Ordinary election|3441","CO-CON-05284|2015|Ordinary election|3442"],"shares":[[0.2815013404825737,0.23848403607116744],[0.3790554929224602,0.20405862457722662],[0.2773703509690938,0.22721320062860137]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":58.33742090776847,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05306","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Giraldo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.716121821737918,7.0588235294117645,5.53846153846154],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05306|2023|Ordinary election|3443","CO-CON-05306|2019|Ordinary election|3444","CO-CON-05306|2015|Ordinary election|3445"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05306|2023|Ordinary election|3443","CO-CON-05306|2019|Ordinary election|3444","CO-CON-05306|2015|Ordinary election|3445"],"shares":[[0.22576138586197264,0.18860016764459345],[0.290302066772655,0.21971383147853735],[0.2734615384615385,0.21807692307692306]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.49416847143783,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05308","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Girardota","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.7886552529779003,3.891215158820792,6.798651664055452],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05308|2023|Ordinary election|3446","CO-CON-05308|2019|Ordinary election|3447","CO-CON-05308|2015|Ordinary election|3448"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05308|2023|Ordinary election|3446","CO-CON-05308|2019|Ordinary election|3447","CO-CON-05308|2015|Ordinary election|3448"],"shares":[[0.2675322685663947,0.24964571603661573],[0.23727953305418092,0.19836738146597302],[0.27830793334282866,0.21032141670227414]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":85.39788567080738,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05310","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Gomez Plata","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.340471092077088,13.861386138613863,8.74970117140808],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05310|2023|Ordinary election|3449","CO-CON-05310|2019|Ordinary election|3450","CO-CON-05310|2015|Ordinary election|3451"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05310|2023|Ordinary election|3449","CO-CON-05310|2019|Ordinary election|3450","CO-CON-05310|2015|Ordinary election|3451"],"shares":[[0.3074946466809422,0.17408993576017132],[0.32043204320432045,0.18181818181818182],[0.32273487927324884,0.23523786755916806]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":34.81165693014391,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05313","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Granada","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[29.715882626921285,1.1206485455412505,32.58281573498965],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05313|2023|Ordinary election|3452","CO-CON-05313|2019|Ordinary election|3453","CO-CON-05313|2015|Ordinary election|3454"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05313|2023|Ordinary election|3452","CO-CON-05313|2019|Ordinary election|3453","CO-CON-05313|2015|Ordinary election|3454"],"shares":[[0.45156031672100605,0.1544014904517932],[0.2823080591320935,0.271101573676681],[0.4917184265010352,0.16589026915113872]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05315","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Guadalupe","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.12091898428053582,3.125,8.395904436860064],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05315|2023|Ordinary election|3455","CO-CON-05315|2019|Ordinary election|3456","CO-CON-05315|2015|Ordinary election|3457"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05315|2023|Ordinary election|3455","CO-CON-05315|2019|Ordinary election|3456","CO-CON-05315|2015|Ordinary election|3457"],"shares":[[0.39389359129383317,0.3926844014510278],[0.44140625,0.41015625],[0.5419795221843003,0.45802047781569966]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":90.75179082872836,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05318","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Guarne","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.6255946907608045,3.739289782576394,10.296563987839153],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05318|2023|Ordinary election|3458","CO-CON-05318|2019|Ordinary election|3459","CO-CON-05318|2015|Ordinary election|3460"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05318|2023|Ordinary election|3458","CO-CON-05318|2019|Ordinary election|3459","CO-CON-05318|2015|Ordinary election|3460"],"shares":[[0.14672370367408946,0.10046775676648143],[0.19384874449011935,0.1564558466643554],[0.2933516893248437,0.19038604944645215]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.36599925993342,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05321","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Guatape","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.7585039769842616,5.521983746613877,4.517790262172285],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05321|2023|Ordinary election|3461","CO-CON-05321|2019|Ordinary election|3462","CO-CON-05321|2015|Ordinary election|3463"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05321|2023|Ordinary election|3461","CO-CON-05321|2019|Ordinary election|3462","CO-CON-05321|2015|Ordinary election|3463"],"shares":[[0.2655271619563378,0.23794212218649516],[0.26463846634715565,0.2094186288810169],[0.18726591760299627,0.1420880149812734]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":81.18261731804026,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05347","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Heliconia","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.38719832109129,0.3236245954692585,1.4314928425357891],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05347|2023|Ordinary election|3464","CO-CON-05347|2019|Ordinary election|3465","CO-CON-05347|2015|Ordinary election|3466"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05347|2023|Ordinary election|3464","CO-CON-05347|2019|Ordinary election|3465","CO-CON-05347|2015|Ordinary election|3466"],"shares":[[0.1896642182581322,0.1657922350472193],[0.19682259488084733,0.19358634892615473],[0.24715162138475022,0.23283669295939233]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":91.63722172225435,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05353","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Hispania","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.4793388429752063,5.79964850615114,17.011884550084886],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05353|2023|Ordinary election|3467","CO-CON-05353|2019|Ordinary election|3468","CO-CON-05353|2015|Ordinary election|3469"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05353|2023|Ordinary election|3467","CO-CON-05353|2019|Ordinary election|3468","CO-CON-05353|2015|Ordinary election|3469"],"shares":[[0.20355065809611264,0.17875726966636057],[0.3251318101933216,0.2671353251318102],[0.4359932088285229,0.26587436332767406]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.35656843680523,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05360","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Itagui","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.634417712960346,10.028955492914532,4.043778687630734],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05360|2023|Ordinary election|3470","CO-CON-05360|2019|Ordinary election|3471","CO-CON-05360|2015|Ordinary election|3472"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05360|2023|Ordinary election|3470","CO-CON-05360|2019|Ordinary election|3471","CO-CON-05360|2015|Ordinary election|3472"],"shares":[[0.27746253455550707,0.13111835742590358],[0.2509444092887687,0.1506548543596234],[0.20057300909081896,0.16013522221451162]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":39.03142427793179,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05361|2023|Ordinary election|3473","CO-CON-05361|2019|Ordinary election|3474","CO-CON-05361|2015|Ordinary election|3475"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05361|2023|Ordinary election|3473","CO-CON-05361|2019|Ordinary election|3474","CO-CON-05361|2015|Ordinary election|3475"],"shares":[[0.20804317548746518,0.14780640668523679],[0.22380226849500592,0.15083798882681565],[0.37120761451516954,0.231608169740234]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":64.00435517035616,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05364|2023|Ordinary election|3476","CO-CON-05364|2019|Ordinary election|3477","CO-CON-05364|2015|Ordinary election|3478"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05364|2023|Ordinary election|3476","CO-CON-05364|2019|Ordinary election|3477","CO-CON-05364|2015|Ordinary election|3478"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.317012569424145,0.2344343759134756],[0.3700544197676129,0.16473010736873067]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05368|2023|Ordinary election|3479","CO-CON-05368|2019|Ordinary election|3480","CO-CON-05368|2015|Ordinary election|3481"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05368|2023|Ordinary election|3479","CO-CON-05368|2019|Ordinary election|3480","CO-CON-05368|2015|Ordinary election|3481"],"shares":[[0.20359580489429,0.1551523222906609],[0.28160242383437134,0.1737081299444538],[0.2242081047602194,0.18456910281366132]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":67.30086103809573,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05376|2023|Ordinary election|3482","CO-CON-05376|2019|Ordinary election|3483","CO-CON-05376|2015|Ordinary election|3484"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05376|2023|Ordinary election|3482","CO-CON-05376|2019|Ordinary election|3483","CO-CON-05376|2015|Ordinary election|3484"],"shares":[[0.18477343938298385,0.1358761147264401],[0.20159472462402853,0.17474682905494063],[0.2502469282130299,0.16633084429694597]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":77.10781407186948,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05380","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"La Estrella","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.903310595156142,1.0968158184371326,7.639631928097581],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05380|2023|Ordinary election|3485","CO-CON-05380|2019|Ordinary election|3486","CO-CON-05380|2015|Ordinary election|3487"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05380|2023|Ordinary election|3485","CO-CON-05380|2019|Ordinary election|3486","CO-CON-05380|2015|Ordinary election|3487"],"shares":[[0.14106014143563428,0.09202703548407286],[0.18122129872101408,0.17025314053664276],[0.20479349454312004,0.12839717526214423]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":79.8250285228271,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[6.273859440515677,14.106014143563428,6.974779397959822,0,9.096313912009512,3.0978158833468927,3.194818198886038,0,0.39739658301520747,0,56.859002440703414],[0,17.025314053664275,18.122129872101407,8.873202019051956,9.47284526927018,14.288967323238074,8.095183877946033,0,0,5.237390413298417,18.884967171429658],[10.134817034025252,11.662743419644768,20.479349454312004,9.129039161138454,12.839717526214423,6.612454526000428,12.197731649903702,1.5578857265140167,0.9544190027819388,10.181895998288038,4.249946501176974]],"volatility_latest":44.64529129280464,"volatility_previous":27.674104101509837,"volatility_mean":36.15969769715724,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05390","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"La Pintada","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.8106190359677008,7.191011235955056,2.5574786876776017],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05390|2023|Ordinary election|3488","CO-CON-05390|2019|Ordinary election|3489","CO-CON-05390|2015|Ordinary election|3490"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05390|2023|Ordinary election|3488","CO-CON-05390|2019|Ordinary election|3489","CO-CON-05390|2015|Ordinary election|3490"],"shares":[[0.2914117934915586,0.27330560313188157],[0.278876404494382,0.20696629213483145],[0.21028158098682512,0.1847067941100491]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":82.50288669432551,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05400","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"La Union","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.681313088472304,2.38898513722987,1.26014523707817],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05400|2023|Ordinary election|3491","CO-CON-05400|2019|Ordinary election|3492","CO-CON-05400|2015|Ordinary election|3493"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05400|2023|Ordinary election|3491","CO-CON-05400|2019|Ordinary election|3492","CO-CON-05400|2015|Ordinary election|3493"],"shares":[[0.29900754941046737,0.17219441852574435],[0.2581380505151819,0.2342481991428832],[0.20140965399401964,0.18880820162323794]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":57.7425104101992,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05411","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Liborina","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.950762829403605,9.025603241849328,2.3126734505087896],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05411|2023|Ordinary election|3494","CO-CON-05411|2019|Ordinary election|3495","CO-CON-05411|2015|Ordinary election|3496"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05411|2023|Ordinary election|3494","CO-CON-05411|2019|Ordinary election|3495","CO-CON-05411|2015|Ordinary election|3496"],"shares":[[0.3118932038834952,0.18238557558945911],[0.2882667157855959,0.1980106833671026],[0.2740055504162812,0.2508788159111933]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":46.452969923760804,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05425","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Maceo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.759796324994465,7.101642254771416,8.276044420941304],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05425|2023|Ordinary election|3497","CO-CON-05425|2019|Ordinary election|3498","CO-CON-05425|2015|Ordinary election|3499"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05425|2023|Ordinary election|3497","CO-CON-05425|2019|Ordinary election|3498","CO-CON-05425|2015|Ordinary election|3499"],"shares":[[0.20655302191720168,0.15895505866725704],[0.27252552152685305,0.2015090989791389],[0.3209941829719725,0.2382337387625595]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":70.93012543238883,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05440|2023|Ordinary election|3500","CO-CON-05440|2019|Ordinary election|3501","CO-CON-05440|2015|Ordinary election|3502"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05440|2023|Ordinary election|3500","CO-CON-05440|2019|Ordinary election|3501","CO-CON-05440|2015|Ordinary election|3502"],"shares":[[0.1055045871559633,0.09827522935779816],[0.139651596847781,0.12812111157196185],[0.1606330265952068,0.1527454747699464]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":95.70724227791456,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05467|2023|Ordinary election|3503","CO-CON-05467|2019|Ordinary election|3504","CO-CON-05467|2015|Ordinary election|3505"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05467|2023|Ordinary election|3503","CO-CON-05467|2019|Ordinary election|3504","CO-CON-05467|2015|Ordinary election|3505"],"shares":[[0.2032520325203252,0.19802555168408825],[0.357505222321695,0.3425843031930767],[0.29760403530895335,0.26071878940731397]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":94.34965558475422,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05475|2023|Ordinary election|3506","CO-CON-05475|2019|Ordinary election|3507","CO-CON-05475|2015|Ordinary election|3508"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05475|2023|Ordinary election|3506","CO-CON-05475|2019|Ordinary election|3507","CO-CON-05475|2015|Ordinary election|3508"],"shares":[[0.2225177304964539,0.20700354609929078],[0.2498709344346928,0.24419204956117707],[0.21613106490233144,0.19596723377441713]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":93.48572039342798,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05480|2023|Ordinary election|3509","CO-CON-05480|2019|Ordinary election|3510","CO-CON-05480|2015|Ordinary election|3511"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05480|2023|Ordinary election|3509","CO-CON-05480|2019|Ordinary election|3510","CO-CON-05480|2015|Ordinary election|3511"],"shares":[[0.21160689843963865,0.15151929920613194],[0.21296135851672154,0.2006584647374805],[0.1927710843373494,0.18456434433385716]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":79.71794916288721,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05483|2023|Ordinary election|3512","CO-CON-05483|2019|Ordinary election|3513","CO-CON-05483|2015|Ordinary election|3514"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05483|2023|Ordinary election|3512","CO-CON-05483|2019|Ordinary election|3513","CO-CON-05483|2015|Ordinary election|3514"],"shares":[[0.1840974212034384,0.14995224450811842],[0.2511996161228407,0.23632437619961613],[0.28464147286821706,0.22601744186046513]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":84.59395945253274,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05490|2023|Ordinary election|3515","CO-CON-05490|2019|Ordinary election|3516","CO-CON-05490|2015|Ordinary election|3517"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05490|2023|Ordinary election|3515","CO-CON-05490|2019|Ordinary election|3516","CO-CON-05490|2015|Ordinary election|3517"],"shares":[[0.14293401164212688,0.13300396223646238],[0.23147254244988358,0.19745584644216027],[0.23014566953129761,0.14871701103187665]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.8470478521711,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05495|2023|Ordinary election|3518","CO-CON-05495|2019|Ordinary election|3519","CO-CON-05495|2015|Ordinary election|3520"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05495|2023|Ordinary election|3518","CO-CON-05495|2019|Ordinary election|3519","CO-CON-05495|2015|Ordinary election|3520"],"shares":[[0.16054661301140175,0.12935949027498322],[0.1365946632782719,0.12674714104193138],[0.17576578453844552,0.14888518441341947]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.82270483737206,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05501","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Olaya","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.201820940819424,24.974515800203875,20.487804878048784],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05501|2023|Ordinary election|3521","CO-CON-05501|2019|Ordinary election|3522","CO-CON-05501|2015|Ordinary election|3523"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05501|2023|Ordinary election|3521","CO-CON-05501|2019|Ordinary election|3522","CO-CON-05501|2015|Ordinary election|3523"],"shares":[[0.3692463328275164,0.2372281234193222],[0.4413863404689093,0.19164118246687054],[0.3772357723577236,0.17235772357723575]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":12.68886103821153,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05541","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Peñol","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.491559485530548,6.896943529144416,11.747617940971415],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05541|2023|Ordinary election|3524","CO-CON-05541|2019|Ordinary election|3525","CO-CON-05541|2015|Ordinary election|3526"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05541|2023|Ordinary election|3524","CO-CON-05541|2019|Ordinary election|3525","CO-CON-05541|2015|Ordinary election|3526"],"shares":[[0.2095056270096463,0.16459003215434084],[0.2488353596182252,0.17986592432678106],[0.2644666511735998,0.14699047176388566]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":70.30609727920603,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05543","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Peque","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[21.032685930838465,1.3386217154189382,3.083823941687694],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05543|2023|Ordinary election|3527","CO-CON-05543|2019|Ordinary election|3528","CO-CON-05543|2015|Ordinary election|3529"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05543|2023|Ordinary election|3527","CO-CON-05543|2019|Ordinary election|3528","CO-CON-05543|2015|Ordinary election|3529"],"shares":[[0.47134059687351965,0.261013737565135],[0.4194348041646009,0.4060485870104115],[0.30305578917858145,0.27221754976170454]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":33.352097663512346,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. MISSING ordinary-cycle return(s): [2023]; no zero or substitute election inserted. Known 2023-12-17 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05579|2023|Ordinary election|3532","CO-CON-05579|2019|Ordinary election|3533","CO-CON-05579|2015|Ordinary election|3534"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05579|2023|Ordinary election|3532","CO-CON-05579|2019|Ordinary election|3533","CO-CON-05579|2015|Ordinary election|3534"],"shares":[[0.15246399788611442,0.11322499669705378],[0.16975768241505346,0.12048192771084337],[0.17783985102420857,0.15076636585016473]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":79.48326217894811,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05585|2023|Ordinary election|3535","CO-CON-05585|2019|Ordinary election|3536","CO-CON-05585|2015|Ordinary election|3537"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05585|2023|Ordinary election|3535","CO-CON-05585|2019|Ordinary election|3536","CO-CON-05585|2015|Ordinary election|3537"],"shares":[[0.18696664080682698,0.18463925523661753],[0.2115280777537797,0.18803995680345573],[0.29570125922709506,0.21189752496743378]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":91.5883794734055,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05591|2023|Ordinary election|3538","CO-CON-05591|2019|Ordinary election|3539","CO-CON-05591|2015|Ordinary election|3540"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05591|2023|Ordinary election|3538","CO-CON-05591|2019|Ordinary election|3539","CO-CON-05591|2015|Ordinary election|3540"],"shares":[[0.2738442822384428,0.270316301703163],[0.2806592341250606,0.1992244304411052],[0.19460530326120085,0.19125266686985676]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.55875346725554,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05604|2023|Ordinary election|3541","CO-CON-05604|2019|Ordinary election|3542","CO-CON-05604|2015|Ordinary election|3543"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05604|2023|Ordinary election|3541","CO-CON-05604|2019|Ordinary election|3542","CO-CON-05604|2015|Ordinary election|3543"],"shares":[[0.15546119367775418,0.1533380514272234],[0.22692036645525018,0.13836034766267324],[0.336430391128428,0.19286677656226583]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":78.90087377764613,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05607","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Retiro","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.173827830544248,1.4002854084909018,5.510447114864132],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05607|2023|Ordinary election|3544","CO-CON-05607|2019|Ordinary election|3545","CO-CON-05607|2015|Ordinary election|3546"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05607|2023|Ordinary election|3544","CO-CON-05607|2019|Ordinary election|3545","CO-CON-05607|2015|Ordinary election|3546"],"shares":[[0.23533845921905625,0.14360018091361376],[0.20486978237602568,0.19086692829111665],[0.22777958211540544,0.1726751109667641]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":67.62286483819884,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05615|2023|Ordinary election|3547","CO-CON-05615|2019|Ordinary election|3548","CO-CON-05615|2015|Ordinary election|3549"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05615|2023|Ordinary election|3547","CO-CON-05615|2019|Ordinary election|3548","CO-CON-05615|2015|Ordinary election|3549"],"shares":[[0.15788688457886885,0.15358741353587413],[0.19289862085652068,0.13021715460924269],[0.13673422263272883,0.1311568589140127]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":89.02907056407409,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05628|2023|Ordinary election|3550","CO-CON-05628|2019|Ordinary election|3551","CO-CON-05628|2015|Ordinary election|3552"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05628|2023|Ordinary election|3550","CO-CON-05628|2019|Ordinary election|3551","CO-CON-05628|2015|Ordinary election|3552"],"shares":[[0.43796992481203006,0.43533834586466164],[0.3318339807810263,0.33122060928235536],[0.4435559736594544,0.28645343367826903]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":91.26339359192956,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05631|2023|Ordinary election|3553","CO-CON-05631|2019|Ordinary election|3554","CO-CON-05631|2015|Ordinary election|3555"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05631|2023|Ordinary election|3553","CO-CON-05631|2019|Ordinary election|3554","CO-CON-05631|2015|Ordinary election|3555"],"shares":[[0.19327087740505694,0.185494106980961],[0.2666846143491722,0.18198950060573427],[0.2667539179167086,0.20510755394476324]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":81.88038361265826,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05642|2023|Ordinary election|3556","CO-CON-05642|2019|Ordinary election|3557","CO-CON-05642|2015|Ordinary election|3558"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05642|2023|Ordinary election|3556","CO-CON-05642|2019|Ordinary election|3557","CO-CON-05642|2015|Ordinary election|3558"],"shares":[[0.2562210399862708,0.18397116869744295],[0.2775321929655968,0.18028060734191811],[0.2548894557823129,0.24404761904761904]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":63.19520893306514,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05647|2023|Ordinary election|3559","CO-CON-05647|2019|Ordinary election|3560","CO-CON-05647|2015|Ordinary election|3561"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05647|2023|Ordinary election|3559","CO-CON-05647|2019|Ordinary election|3560","CO-CON-05647|2015|Ordinary election|3561"],"shares":[[0.2718354430379747,0.1917721518987342],[0.26221441124780315,0.25026362038664324],[0.42422434367541767,0.19033412887828163]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":62.49388328919706,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05649","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"San Carlos","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.5333250896500559,2.344133529700539,0.6762351642285402],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05649|2023|Ordinary election|3562","CO-CON-05649|2019|Ordinary election|3563","CO-CON-05649|2015|Ordinary election|3564"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05649|2023|Ordinary election|3562","CO-CON-05649|2019|Ordinary election|3563","CO-CON-05649|2015|Ordinary election|3564"],"shares":[[0.1868430814888092,0.17150983059230865],[0.21195385370643102,0.18851251840942562],[0.19445211150979852,0.1876897598675131]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":91.54570685438476,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[17.150983059230864,3.783850624459008,11.635958946457277,1.0634351428218127,9.397798936564858,11.05477927538024,1.05106961790528,0,0,0,44.86212439718066],[21.195385370643102,6.615120274914089,9.401080019636721,8.676975945017182,18.213058419243985,18.851251840942563,6.381934216985764,0,0,6.651939126165931,4.013254786450663],[18.76897598675131,7.852608335633453,18.00993651669887,8.459839911675408,7.162572453767596,19.44521115097985,0,4.540436102677339,0,3.7675959149875795,11.992823626828596]],"volatility_latest":43.08374853755055,"volatility_previous":22.96030881087407,"volatility_mean":33.02202867421231,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05652","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"San Francisco","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.886606409202962,6.101879596840096,8.4685748008262],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05652|2023|Ordinary election|3565","CO-CON-05652|2019|Ordinary election|3566","CO-CON-05652|2015|Ordinary election|3567"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05652|2023|Ordinary election|3565","CO-CON-05652|2019|Ordinary election|3566","CO-CON-05652|2015|Ordinary election|3567"],"shares":[[0.3382634894549439,0.19939742536291427],[0.322800326886407,0.261781530918006],[0.2779580997344349,0.19327235172617294]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":44.953073976717874,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[33.82634894549439,17.502054231717338,8.627773212818406,19.939742536291426,2.519857573267598,17.584223500410847,0,0,0,0,0],[20.403159901934078,32.280032688640695,0,26.1781530918006,3.1326614001634434,15.63606646690275,0,0,0,2.369926450558431,0],[18.825612275007376,12.983180879315432,8.232516966656831,27.795809973443493,0,19.327235172617293,0,4.367069932133373,0,0,8.468574800826202]],"volatility_latest":23.99911928988681,"volatility_previous":26.37698728697384,"volatility_mean":25.188053288430325,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05656","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"San Jeronimo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[28.14846295509279,7.21216509775525,5.822906641000962],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05656|2023|Ordinary election|3568","CO-CON-05656|2019|Ordinary election|3569","CO-CON-05656|2015|Ordinary election|3570"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05656|2023|Ordinary election|3568","CO-CON-05656|2019|Ordinary election|3569","CO-CON-05656|2015|Ordinary election|3570"],"shares":[[0.4997875053123672,0.2183028757614393],[0.31889934829833455,0.24677769732078203],[0.2938723131215913,0.23564324671158166]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":1.8249101675882784,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05658","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"San Jose De La Montaña","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[19.987228607918265,8.391987005955603,34.91885842193621],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05658|2023|Ordinary election|3571","CO-CON-05658|2019|Ordinary election|3572","CO-CON-05658|2015|Ordinary election|3573"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05658|2023|Ordinary election|3571","CO-CON-05658|2019|Ordinary election|3572","CO-CON-05658|2015|Ordinary election|3573"],"shares":[[0.4897828863346105,0.2899106002554278],[0.3898213318895506,0.30590146182999456],[0.5551203133743704,0.2059317291550084]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":9.990904456343696,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[48.97828863346105,28.991060025542783,0,0,20.306513409961685,0,1.7241379310344827,0,0,0,0],[30.590146182999458,0,0,0,25.98808879263671,0,38.98213318895506,0,0,0,4.439631835408771],[20.59317291550084,9.289311695579183,14.605484051482932,0,0,0,55.512031337437044,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":47.37920247600437,"volatility_previous":40.424693895544095,"volatility_mean":43.90194818577423,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05659|2023|Ordinary election|3574","CO-CON-05659|2019|Ordinary election|3575","CO-CON-05659|2015|Ordinary election|3576"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05659|2023|Ordinary election|3574","CO-CON-05659|2019|Ordinary election|3575","CO-CON-05659|2015|Ordinary election|3576"],"shares":[[0.16747090547828555,0.150723814930457],[0.21500484027105518,0.13533397870280736],[0.19753224901850813,0.1552439708356702]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.91082969127237,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05660","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"San Luis","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.426482403985215,5.486241668090923,9.56865699755133],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05660|2023|Ordinary election|3577","CO-CON-05660|2019|Ordinary election|3578","CO-CON-05660|2015|Ordinary election|3579"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05660|2023|Ordinary election|3577","CO-CON-05660|2019|Ordinary election|3578","CO-CON-05660|2015|Ordinary election|3579"],"shares":[[0.20552788044351597,0.18126305640366383],[0.26081011792855924,0.20594770124765],[0.2635147862120927,0.16782821623657937]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":79.70686178713231,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05664|2023|Ordinary election|3580","CO-CON-05664|2019|Ordinary election|3581","CO-CON-05664|2015|Ordinary election|3582"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05664|2023|Ordinary election|3580","CO-CON-05664|2019|Ordinary election|3581","CO-CON-05664|2015|Ordinary election|3582"],"shares":[[0.17481060606060606,0.13551136363636362],[0.26448432995443133,0.22616944108620848],[0.39080903649353155,0.1523460127437729]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":70.53984275500592,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05665|2023|Ordinary election|3583","CO-CON-05665|2019|Ordinary election|3584","CO-CON-05665|2015|Ordinary election|3585"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05665|2023|Ordinary election|3583","CO-CON-05665|2019|Ordinary election|3584","CO-CON-05665|2015|Ordinary election|3585"],"shares":[[0.30208759721653705,0.15418201664620004],[0.26625811103100216,0.128478731074261],[0.27825685247921156,0.15214043732676316]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":28.65559807776531,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05667|2023|Ordinary election|3586","CO-CON-05667|2019|Ordinary election|3587","CO-CON-05667|2015|Ordinary election|3588"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05667|2023|Ordinary election|3586","CO-CON-05667|2019|Ordinary election|3587","CO-CON-05667|2015|Ordinary election|3588"],"shares":[[0.28502080443828015,0.23897364771151178],[0.25402316137765074,0.19777410136862683],[0.30702179176755445,0.17788539144471346]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":71.29167396447384,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05670","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"San Roque","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.1535688536409516,6.056766345666496,6.012963729140807],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05670|2023|Ordinary election|3589","CO-CON-05670|2019|Ordinary election|3590","CO-CON-05670|2015|Ordinary election|3591"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05670|2023|Ordinary election|3589","CO-CON-05670|2019|Ordinary election|3590","CO-CON-05670|2015|Ordinary election|3591"],"shares":[[0.2386445565969719,0.22710886806056238],[0.253294475418145,0.19272681196148],[0.26906633567783755,0.20893669838642948]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":84.447662056007,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05674|2023|Ordinary election|3592","CO-CON-05674|2019|Ordinary election|3593","CO-CON-05674|2015|Ordinary election|3594"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05674|2023|Ordinary election|3592","CO-CON-05674|2019|Ordinary election|3593","CO-CON-05674|2015|Ordinary election|3594"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.21183766728321185,0.18996844739418997],[0.2889898334414882,0.18581008003460955]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05679|2023|Ordinary election|3595","CO-CON-05679|2019|Ordinary election|3596","CO-CON-05679|2015|Ordinary election|3597"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05679|2023|Ordinary election|3595","CO-CON-05679|2019|Ordinary election|3596","CO-CON-05679|2015|Ordinary election|3597"],"shares":[[0.3630247578040904,0.2622891998564765],[0.37472849183114554,0.3196713570686562],[0.38396789664285014,0.1903689928550455]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":51.84081721195219,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05686|2023|Ordinary election|3598","CO-CON-05686|2019|Ordinary election|3599","CO-CON-05686|2015|Ordinary election|3600"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05686|2023|Ordinary election|3598","CO-CON-05686|2019|Ordinary election|3599","CO-CON-05686|2015|Ordinary election|3600"],"shares":[[0.20765420262064554,0.1761744966442953],[0.24775149270652258,0.23399591867583705],[0.344119907763259,0.2862413528055342]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":85.59882435460585,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05690|2023|Ordinary election|3601","CO-CON-05690|2019|Ordinary election|3602","CO-CON-05690|2015|Ordinary election|3603"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05690|2023|Ordinary election|3601","CO-CON-05690|2019|Ordinary election|3602","CO-CON-05690|2015|Ordinary election|3603"],"shares":[[0.2553659878921299,0.19776187855439367],[0.23326339881747093,0.22181956894907498],[0.28632753809830436,0.20862846104314228]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":77.11723886566165,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05697|2023|Ordinary election|3604","CO-CON-05697|2019|Ordinary election|3605","CO-CON-05697|2015|Ordinary election|3606"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05697|2023|Ordinary election|3604","CO-CON-05697|2019|Ordinary election|3605","CO-CON-05697|2015|Ordinary election|3606"],"shares":[[0.20960916106547173,0.20960916106547173],[0.31938357132758377,0.19645129365191571],[0.34708928291228625,0.22265808881217639]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.33859864364429,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05736|2023|Ordinary election|3607","CO-CON-05736|2019|Ordinary election|3608","CO-CON-05736|2015|Ordinary election|3609"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05736|2023|Ordinary election|3607","CO-CON-05736|2019|Ordinary election|3608","CO-CON-05736|2015|Ordinary election|3609"],"shares":[[0.1920575407452751,0.17560639681689494],[0.18198198198198198,0.17894736842105263],[0.17346432469981146,0.16344150044656147]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":94.10832357468406,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05756|2023|Ordinary election|3610","CO-CON-05756|2019|Ordinary election|3611","CO-CON-05756|2015|Ordinary election|3612"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05756|2023|Ordinary election|3610","CO-CON-05756|2019|Ordinary election|3611","CO-CON-05756|2015|Ordinary election|3612"],"shares":[[0.34606552357624004,0.20598591549295775],[0.2622267709627897,0.16053805102712185],[0.22916666666666669,0.20874183006535948]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":41.701567754599786,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05761|2023|Ordinary election|3613","CO-CON-05761|2019|Ordinary election|3614","CO-CON-05761|2015|Ordinary election|3615"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05761|2023|Ordinary election|3613","CO-CON-05761|2019|Ordinary election|3614","CO-CON-05761|2015|Ordinary election|3615"],"shares":[[0.2936271590232281,0.1262656343061346],[0.1774982529699511,0.16757512229210342],[0.2590689238210399,0.24077992744860943]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":47.388623164573275,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05789|2023|Ordinary election|3616","CO-CON-05789|2019|Ordinary election|3617","CO-CON-05789|2015|Ordinary election|3618"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05789|2023|Ordinary election|3616","CO-CON-05789|2019|Ordinary election|3617","CO-CON-05789|2015|Ordinary election|3618"],"shares":[[0.304900860456416,0.22159870308018456],[0.49425113464447806,0.1659606656580938],[0.39442081561170883,0.15549161871403552]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":13.819322594289273,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05790","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Taraza","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.05118231139318041,3.1449407474931625,11.768707482993197],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05790|2023|Ordinary election|3619","CO-CON-05790|2019|Ordinary election|3620","CO-CON-05790|2015|Ordinary election|3621"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05790|2023|Ordinary election|3619","CO-CON-05790|2019|Ordinary election|3620","CO-CON-05790|2015|Ordinary election|3621"],"shares":[[0.17872863138499334,0.17821680827106154],[0.2621923427529626,0.230742935278031],[0.2715257531584062,0.15383867832847425]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":89.24468820308412,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05792","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Tarso","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.66907962771458,17.628705148205928,14.238510063082003],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05792|2023|Ordinary election|3622","CO-CON-05792|2019|Ordinary election|3623","CO-CON-05792|2015|Ordinary election|3624"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05792|2023|Ordinary election|3622","CO-CON-05792|2019|Ordinary election|3623","CO-CON-05792|2015|Ordinary election|3624"],"shares":[[0.2918821096173733,0.19519131334022752],[0.37675507020280813,0.20046801872074885],[0.36497446680684886,0.22258936617602884]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":37.43044836300636,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05809|2023|Ordinary election|3625","CO-CON-05809|2019|Ordinary election|3626","CO-CON-05809|2015|Ordinary election|3627"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05809|2023|Ordinary election|3625","CO-CON-05809|2019|Ordinary election|3626","CO-CON-05809|2015|Ordinary election|3627"],"shares":[[0.2816284462767328,0.23602164390620975],[0.3070629942732479,0.2980638123806927],[0.22251007484168106,0.17386298215313759]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":82.53572737053263,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05819","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Toledo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.093762907889303,1.4686825053995705,10.833333333333336],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05819|2023|Ordinary election|3628","CO-CON-05819|2019|Ordinary election|3629","CO-CON-05819|2015|Ordinary election|3630"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05819|2023|Ordinary election|3628","CO-CON-05819|2019|Ordinary election|3629","CO-CON-05819|2015|Ordinary election|3630"],"shares":[[0.2808756712102437,0.14993804213135067],[0.2004319654427646,0.18574514038876888],[0.346078431372549,0.23774509803921567]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":53.09902085156606,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05837","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Turbo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.527804625067775,0.5681943312705098,4.815083393763599],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05837|2023|Ordinary election|3631","CO-CON-05837|2019|Ordinary election|3632","CO-CON-05837|2015|Ordinary election|3633"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05837|2023|Ordinary election|3631","CO-CON-05837|2019|Ordinary election|3632","CO-CON-05837|2015|Ordinary election|3633"],"shares":[[0.22191838947691003,0.11664034322623229],[0.11863809544783845,0.11295615213513335],[0.17471597776166306,0.12656514382402706]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":65.15675293100911,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05842","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Uramita","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.49103139013453,1.4693651233712224,8.581436077057795],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05842|2023|Ordinary election|3634","CO-CON-05842|2019|Ordinary election|3635","CO-CON-05842|2015|Ordinary election|3636"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05842|2023|Ordinary election|3634","CO-CON-05842|2019|Ordinary election|3635","CO-CON-05842|2015|Ordinary election|3636"],"shares":[[0.32847533632286996,0.21356502242152467],[0.30745772109786523,0.29276406986415304],[0.33333333333333337,0.2475189725627554]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":59.03214010601068,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05847","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Urrao","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.223056537102472,5.674978503869303,0.3851709195955699],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05847|2023|Ordinary election|3637","CO-CON-05847|2019|Ordinary election|3638","CO-CON-05847|2015|Ordinary election|3639"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05847|2023|Ordinary election|3637","CO-CON-05847|2019|Ordinary election|3638","CO-CON-05847|2015|Ordinary election|3639"],"shares":[[0.14686395759717313,0.09463339222614842],[0.19217540842648323,0.13542562338779018],[0.18115069812229176,0.17729898892633605]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.62577717309085,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05854","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Valdivia","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.21388101983003,20.149121249778098,11.450101084359492],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05854|2023|Ordinary election|3640","CO-CON-05854|2019|Ordinary election|3641","CO-CON-05854|2015|Ordinary election|3642"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05854|2023|Ordinary election|3640","CO-CON-05854|2019|Ordinary election|3641","CO-CON-05854|2015|Ordinary election|3642"],"shares":[[0.27514164305949007,0.2330028328611898],[0.3500798863838097,0.14858867388602875],[0.3221834221650432,0.20768241132144827]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":51.40962452366302,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05856","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Valparaiso","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.838070059484469,26.451809060504715,10.003547357218874],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05856|2023|Ordinary election|3643","CO-CON-05856|2019|Ordinary election|3644","CO-CON-05856|2015|Ordinary election|3645"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05856|2023|Ordinary election|3643","CO-CON-05856|2019|Ordinary election|3644","CO-CON-05856|2015|Ordinary election|3645"],"shares":[[0.3688037012557832,0.22042300066093856],[0.4235329887503801,0.15901489814533293],[0.2798864845689961,0.17985101099680736]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":10.806302552180092,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05858","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Vegachi","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.482631869141699,17.025726835390085,9.510807736063708],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05858|2023|Ordinary election|3646","CO-CON-05858|2019|Ordinary election|3647","CO-CON-05858|2015|Ordinary election|3648"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05858|2023|Ordinary election|3646","CO-CON-05858|2019|Ordinary election|3647","CO-CON-05858|2015|Ordinary election|3648"],"shares":[[0.325675427311156,0.18084910861973902],[0.36937879104789795,0.19912152269399708],[0.2584755403868032,0.16336746302616612]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":26.258110271457923,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05861","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Venecia","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.892312902133423,1.7702016062940515,22.203261281759573],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05861|2023|Ordinary election|3649","CO-CON-05861|2019|Ordinary election|3650","CO-CON-05861|2015|Ordinary election|3651"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05861|2023|Ordinary election|3649","CO-CON-05861|2019|Ordinary election|3650","CO-CON-05861|2015|Ordinary election|3651"],"shares":[[0.27074161869285474,0.2118184896715205],[0.27733158498606786,0.2596295689231274],[0.3960940462646947,0.17406143344709896]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":68.56612824327887,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05873|2023|Ordinary election|3652","CO-CON-05873|2019|Ordinary election|3653","CO-CON-05873|2015|Ordinary election|3654"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05873|2023|Ordinary election|3652","CO-CON-05873|2019|Ordinary election|3653","CO-CON-05873|2015|Ordinary election|3654"],"shares":[[0.19530002281542325,0.13392653433721194],[0.20973496432212027,0.18883792048929662],[0.2631892697466468,0.2083457526080477]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.71122102468311,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05885|2023|Ordinary election|3655","CO-CON-05885|2019|Ordinary election|3656","CO-CON-05885|2015|Ordinary election|3657"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05885|2023|Ordinary election|3655","CO-CON-05885|2019|Ordinary election|3656","CO-CON-05885|2015|Ordinary election|3657"],"shares":[[0.22707125809751108,0.22400272758267983],[0.23972125435540068,0.20592334494773518],[0.36077481840193704,0.21584226911103424]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.76312696985566,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05887","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Yarumal","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.279391722258087,16.38132295719845,16.09434368055058],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05887|2023|Ordinary election|3658","CO-CON-05887|2019|Ordinary election|3659","CO-CON-05887|2015|Ordinary election|3660"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05887|2023|Ordinary election|3658","CO-CON-05887|2019|Ordinary election|3659","CO-CON-05887|2015|Ordinary election|3660"],"shares":[[0.20177892547163043,0.14898500824904956],[0.3208171206225681,0.15700389105058365],[0.3175854899992831,0.15664205319377733]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":51.54266855715278,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05890","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Yolombo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.346896653398204,2.0235578375113263,0.6045751633986924],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05890|2023|Ordinary election|3661","CO-CON-05890|2019|Ordinary election|3662","CO-CON-05890|2015|Ordinary election|3663"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05890|2023|Ordinary election|3661","CO-CON-05890|2019|Ordinary election|3662","CO-CON-05890|2015|Ordinary election|3663"],"shares":[[0.2764263600176913,0.18295739348370926],[0.21715493808517064,0.19691935971005736],[0.25669934640522873,0.2506535947712418]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":68.62168570183906,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05893|2023|Ordinary election|3664","CO-CON-05893|2019|Ordinary election|3665","CO-CON-05893|2015|Ordinary election|3666"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05893|2023|Ordinary election|3664","CO-CON-05893|2019|Ordinary election|3665","CO-CON-05893|2015|Ordinary election|3666"],"shares":[[0.17295141406816533,0.15772298767222626],[0.15576254068005835,0.15116148580406238],[0.29428697962798933,0.13352524357838796]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.7032270473388,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-05895","country":"Colombia","region":"Antioquia","name":"Zaragoza","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.64620613815855,3.992965759801386,4.217208933227525],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-05895|2023|Ordinary election|3667","CO-CON-05895|2019|Ordinary election|3668","CO-CON-05895|2015|Ordinary election|3669"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-05895|2023|Ordinary election|3667","CO-CON-05895|2019|Ordinary election|3668","CO-CON-05895|2015|Ordinary election|3669"],"shares":[[0.2949115265420374,0.16844946516045187],[0.23006103237819386,0.19013137478018],[0.2394286362090466,0.19725654687677135]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":53.963328479208506,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-08001","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Barranquilla","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.899043020950081,7.351147005756509,8.061662144687023],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-08001|2023|Ordinary election|3670","CO-CON-08001|2019|Ordinary election|3671","CO-CON-08001|2015|Ordinary election|3672"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-08001|2023|Ordinary election|3670","CO-CON-08001|2019|Ordinary election|3671","CO-CON-08001|2015|Ordinary election|3672"],"shares":[[0.2925558716747612,0.2035654414652604],[0.2614722055159378,0.1879607354583727],[0.2897680102028325,0.20915138875596223]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":58.24531935617148,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-08078","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Baranoa","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.923538230884557,7.588192944564433,0.6095845446872339],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-08078|2023|Ordinary election|3673","CO-CON-08078|2019|Ordinary election|3674","CO-CON-08078|2015|Ordinary election|3675"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-08078|2023|Ordinary election|3673","CO-CON-08078|2019|Ordinary election|3674","CO-CON-08078|2015|Ordinary election|3675"],"shares":[[0.3294807141883604,0.2002453318795148],[0.3024334053275738,0.22655147588192948],[0.24711619619244116,0.2410203507455688]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":49.54230361815607,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-08137|2023|Ordinary election|3676","CO-CON-08137|2019|Ordinary election|3677","CO-CON-08137|2015|Ordinary election|3678"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-08137|2023|Ordinary election|3676","CO-CON-08137|2019|Ordinary election|3677","CO-CON-08137|2015|Ordinary election|3678"],"shares":[[0.21850366477665606,0.19084497303277556],[0.22254236125403032,0.2043630376620704],[0.2180472263868066,0.18197151424287855]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.17170833084545,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-08141|2023|Ordinary election|3679","CO-CON-08141|2019|Ordinary election|3680","CO-CON-08141|2015|Ordinary election|3681"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-08141|2023|Ordinary election|3679","CO-CON-08141|2019|Ordinary election|3680","CO-CON-08141|2015|Ordinary election|3681"],"shares":[[0.23346605807516752,0.20209769835874525],[0.257751550310062,0.24094818963792758],[0.23976023976023977,0.2192807192807193]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.04501196027714,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-08296","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Galapa","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.086148947461524,8.397958773656928,2.6468506723283802],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-08296|2023|Ordinary election|3682","CO-CON-08296|2019|Ordinary election|3683","CO-CON-08296|2015|Ordinary election|3684"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-08296|2023|Ordinary election|3682","CO-CON-08296|2019|Ordinary election|3683","CO-CON-08296|2015|Ordinary election|3684"],"shares":[[0.1852821510702282,0.17442066159561295],[0.28022662434202594,0.19624703660545667],[0.20268931351733901,0.17622080679405522]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":82.82118966096584,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-08372","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Juan De Acosta","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.3556903317873683,5.011734423499128,2.4731451411441405],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-08372|2023|Ordinary election|3685","CO-CON-08372|2019|Ordinary election|3686","CO-CON-08372|2015|Ordinary election|3687"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-08372|2023|Ordinary election|3685","CO-CON-08372|2019|Ordinary election|3686","CO-CON-08372|2015|Ordinary election|3687"],"shares":[[0.1897966464502319,0.1762397431323582],[0.21659474600651069,0.16647740177151943],[0.17944874677325337,0.15471729536181197]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.17875479881714,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-08421","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Luruaco","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.9268118529096725,2.867339404380999,10.507099391480729],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-08421|2023|Ordinary election|3688","CO-CON-08421|2019|Ordinary election|3689","CO-CON-08421|2015|Ordinary election|3690"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-08421|2023|Ordinary election|3688","CO-CON-08421|2019|Ordinary election|3689","CO-CON-08421|2015|Ordinary election|3690"],"shares":[[0.2535999047959062,0.20433178626680948],[0.25953728771843465,0.23086389367462468],[0.33691683569979713,0.23184584178498988]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.66500563895912,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-08433","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Malambo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.861272937897688,5.548451264563795,4.863997974213424],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-08433|2023|Ordinary election|3691","CO-CON-08433|2019|Ordinary election|3692","CO-CON-08433|2015|Ordinary election|3693"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-08433|2023|Ordinary election|3691","CO-CON-08433|2019|Ordinary election|3692","CO-CON-08433|2015|Ordinary election|3693"],"shares":[[0.13085304635428036,0.12224031697530346],[0.2158105996021597,0.16032608695652176],[0.20167127392432843,0.1530312941821942]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.66150530235453,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-08436","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Manati","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.6633606713713505,1.644704250470621,8.792319353208692],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-08436|2023|Ordinary election|3694","CO-CON-08436|2019|Ordinary election|3695","CO-CON-08436|2015|Ordinary election|3696"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-08436|2023|Ordinary election|3694","CO-CON-08436|2019|Ordinary election|3695","CO-CON-08436|2015|Ordinary election|3696"],"shares":[[0.24966622162883845,0.20303261491512495],[0.22788070940255623,0.21143366689785],[0.24140980293077313,0.15348660939868622]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":79.14670193357567,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-08520","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Palmar De Varela","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.507299270072991,2.086293760496062,2.8733541863679335],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-08520|2023|Ordinary election|3697","CO-CON-08520|2019|Ordinary election|3698","CO-CON-08520|2015|Ordinary election|3699"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-08520|2023|Ordinary election|3697","CO-CON-08520|2019|Ordinary election|3698","CO-CON-08520|2015|Ordinary election|3699"],"shares":[[0.29774939172749393,0.20267639902676401],[0.2599147396977135,0.23905180209275287],[0.32625300065468826,0.29751945879100894]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":66.91198445585297,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-08549|2023|Ordinary election|3700","CO-CON-08549|2019|Ordinary election|3701","CO-CON-08549|2015|Ordinary election|3702"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-08549|2023|Ordinary election|3700","CO-CON-08549|2019|Ordinary election|3701","CO-CON-08549|2015|Ordinary election|3702"],"shares":[[0.4190738193489225,0.2955066483264558],[0.27103960396039606,0.26064356435643565],[0.34290447266703483,0.21645499723909442]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":55.047968981268916,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-08558|2023|Ordinary election|3703","CO-CON-08558|2019|Ordinary election|3704","CO-CON-08558|2015|Ordinary election|3705"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-08558|2023|Ordinary election|3703","CO-CON-08558|2019|Ordinary election|3704","CO-CON-08558|2015|Ordinary election|3705"],"shares":[[0.2750213452234133,0.25139929797931887],[0.33630375823324293,0.23169314219294848],[0.2691402309158166,0.21712812464970294]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":74.6211881074218,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-08560|2023|Ordinary election|3706","CO-CON-08560|2019|Ordinary election|3707","CO-CON-08560|2015|Ordinary election|3708"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-08560|2023|Ordinary election|3706","CO-CON-08560|2019|Ordinary election|3707","CO-CON-08560|2015|Ordinary election|3708"],"shares":[[0.21159674052124722,0.1843221765775473],[0.24131613659680493,0.22057745859592554],[0.3183017208893355,0.2299962316291923]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":84.29155465375095,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-08573|2023|Ordinary election|3709","CO-CON-08573|2019|Ordinary election|3710","CO-CON-08573|2015|Ordinary election|3711"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-08573|2023|Ordinary election|3709","CO-CON-08573|2019|Ordinary election|3710","CO-CON-08573|2015|Ordinary election|3711"],"shares":[[0.2379815100154083,0.18863636363636363],[0.18342886920270973,0.18082334549244397],[0.18395234758234058,0.17469216137751528]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":84.34261821950545,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-08606","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Repelon","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.626964891628003,2.9564721806653864,4.432833305241868],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-08606|2023|Ordinary election|3712","CO-CON-08606|2019|Ordinary election|3713","CO-CON-08606|2015|Ordinary election|3714"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-08606|2023|Ordinary election|3712","CO-CON-08606|2019|Ordinary election|3713","CO-CON-08606|2015|Ordinary election|3714"],"shares":[[0.254622256076449,0.18835260716016897],[0.2838925696373869,0.25432784783073303],[0.2617562784426091,0.21742794539019045]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":73.46798040149697,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-08634","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Sabanagrande","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.798280528578253,11.364655752410854,5.177361255265886],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-08634|2023|Ordinary election|3715","CO-CON-08634|2019|Ordinary election|3716","CO-CON-08634|2015|Ordinary election|3717"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-08634|2023|Ordinary election|3715","CO-CON-08634|2019|Ordinary election|3716","CO-CON-08634|2015|Ordinary election|3717"],"shares":[[0.2223106723982381,0.15432786711245555],[0.31868131868131866,0.20503476115721014],[0.23670553757860674,0.18493192502594788]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":59.969494158016026,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-08638","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Sabanalarga","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.004544136130715,2.7027539640391467,1.5000331865749246],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-08638|2023|Ordinary election|3718","CO-CON-08638|2019|Ordinary election|3719","CO-CON-08638|2015|Ordinary election|3720"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-08638|2023|Ordinary election|3718","CO-CON-08638|2019|Ordinary election|3719","CO-CON-08638|2015|Ordinary election|3720"],"shares":[[0.26617035676302814,0.15612491540172097],[0.24440482512707684,0.2173772854866854],[0.2080798247748844,0.19307949290913518]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":62.18222005226167,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-08675","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Santa Lucia","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.732627548147317,6.074384983094323,1.3669821240799145],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-08675|2023|Ordinary election|3721","CO-CON-08675|2019|Ordinary election|3722","CO-CON-08675|2015|Ordinary election|3723"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-08675|2023|Ordinary election|3721","CO-CON-08675|2019|Ordinary election|3722","CO-CON-08675|2015|Ordinary election|3723"],"shares":[[0.3103953147877013,0.25306903930622815],[0.235979946368194,0.17523609653725078],[0.22863151569776174,0.21496169445696262]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":73.00704881887661,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-08685","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Santo Tomas","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.846872228309074,5.111579402388287,11.656186973543715],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-08685|2023|Ordinary election|3724","CO-CON-08685|2019|Ordinary election|3725","CO-CON-08685|2015|Ordinary election|3726"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-08685|2023|Ordinary election|3724","CO-CON-08685|2019|Ordinary election|3725","CO-CON-08685|2015|Ordinary election|3726"],"shares":[[0.200448687848907,0.15197996556581625],[0.24936510509536933,0.19824931107148647],[0.3053149839838652,0.18875311424842806]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":71.96392072471849,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-08758","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Soledad","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.262726111223184,2.1125391773366697,4.587638275345915],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-08758|2023|Ordinary election|3727","CO-CON-08758|2019|Ordinary election|3728","CO-CON-08758|2015|Ordinary election|3729"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-08758|2023|Ordinary election|3727","CO-CON-08758|2019|Ordinary election|3728","CO-CON-08758|2015|Ordinary election|3729"],"shares":[[0.24352767130656983,0.16090041019433798],[0.1788612454141257,0.157735853640759],[0.20160636705487203,0.15572998430141288]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":69.74919376265248,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-08770","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Suan","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.976701809189116,12.930121757543674,8.731063691154912],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-08770|2023|Ordinary election|3730","CO-CON-08770|2019|Ordinary election|3731","CO-CON-08770|2015|Ordinary election|3732"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-08770|2023|Ordinary election|3730","CO-CON-08770|2019|Ordinary election|3731","CO-CON-08770|2015|Ordinary election|3732"],"shares":[[0.35819341403097743,0.22842639593908629],[0.44494441503440973,0.315643197458973],[0.3981104414399739,0.3107998045284248]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":37.3091800905397,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-08832|2023|Ordinary election|3733","CO-CON-08832|2019|Ordinary election|3734","CO-CON-08832|2015|Ordinary election|3735"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-08832|2023|Ordinary election|3733","CO-CON-08832|2019|Ordinary election|3734","CO-CON-08832|2015|Ordinary election|3735"],"shares":[[0.23905642023346302,0.22823443579766536],[0.29608569161597464,0.17257339328220048],[0.29862218999274837,0.26439448875997096]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":76.5151748575557,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[4.499027237354086,12.53647859922179,12.71887159533074,22.823443579766536,4.657101167315175,23.905642023346303,0,0,0,0,18.85943579766537],[17.25733932822005,11.888389314996033,11.637133033588997,29.60856916159746,7.193864057127744,15.339857180640042,0,3.7423961914837345,0,0,3.33245173234594],[26.439448875997098,12.255257432922408,19.85496736765772,29.862218999274837,0,0,0,3.5678027556200145,0,0,8.02030456852792]],"volatility_latest":25.822596753993192,"volatility_previous":22.708314673631506,"volatility_mean":24.26545571381235,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-08849","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Usiacuri","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.24475725366274,6.406858924395948,3.3344675059544073],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-08849|2023|Ordinary election|3736","CO-CON-08849|2019|Ordinary election|3737","CO-CON-08849|2015|Ordinary election|3738"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-08849|2023|Ordinary election|3736","CO-CON-08849|2019|Ordinary election|3737","CO-CON-08849|2015|Ordinary election|3738"],"shares":[[0.30652111462223497,0.2240735420856076],[0.34216679657053783,0.2780982073265783],[0.2636951343994556,0.23035045933991152]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":63.988206099440646,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[10.112036771042805,30.6521114622235,15.685147945992531,22.407354208560758,9.39385234128124,0,0,0,0,0,11.749497270899166],[10.350740452065471,27.809820732657833,34.21667965705378,21.527669524551833,0,0,0,0,0,6.095089633671083,0],[22.728819326301462,23.035045933991153,26.36951343994556,20.874447090847227,0,0,0,0,0,6.992174208914597,0]],"volatility_latest":24.865325025755,"volatility_previous":13.275163449479505,"volatility_mean":19.070244237617253,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-11011","country":"Colombia","region":"Bogota D.C.","name":"Bogota. D.C.","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.646899849301505,10.138454648248052,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Bogotá 2015/2019 source code 11001 is explicitly joined to the same named 2023 unit coded 11011. Three ordinary source cycles are now present. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld. The restored 2015 CEDE council vector is partial and excluded: some elected candidates have zero source votes. No three-cycle numeric completeness claim is made for this council. The 2015 council vector is partial and excluded from three-cycle completeness and vote metrics; positive source entries remain visible for audit.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-11011|2023|Ordinary election|3739","CO-CON-11011|2019|Ordinary election|6817","CO-CON-11011|2015|Ordinary election|6815"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-11011|2023|Ordinary election|3739","CO-CON-11011|2019|Ordinary election|6817","CO-CON-11011|2015|Ordinary election|6815"],"shares":[[0.17238873728776355,0.1659197387947485],[0.2426379182333388,0.14125337175085828],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,12.180852962499339,0,0,14.761190276028929,17.238873728776355,0,0.0,0,0,55.81908303269537],[4.347855702686502,14.125337175085827,3.4145363331698544,10.039388180480628,11.129459906817067,24.26379182333388,0,0,8.158061890360198,0,24.521568988066043],null],"volatility_latest":34.92924441384119,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":2,"Incomplete candidate-count source, under reconciliation":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-13001","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Cartagena","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.13466142916235135,4.078085948888063,0.5467824330361459],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13001|2023|Ordinary election|3740","CO-CON-13001|2019|Ordinary election|3741","CO-CON-13001|2015|Ordinary election|3742"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13001|2023|Ordinary election|3740","CO-CON-13001|2019|Ordinary election|3741","CO-CON-13001|2015|Ordinary election|3742"],"shares":[[0.15231234205210734,0.1509657277604838],[0.1982915514445108,0.15751069195563017],[0.20367402832002796,0.19820620398966649]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":93.20549557266278,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-13006","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Achi","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":2,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2015],"gaps":[0.041108279207431764,5.586272640610105,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. MISSING ordinary-cycle return(s): [2019]; no zero or substitute election inserted. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13006|2023|Ordinary election|3743","CO-CON-13006|2015|Ordinary election|3744"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13006|2023|Ordinary election|3743","CO-CON-13006|2015|Ordinary election|3744"],"shares":[[0.22050480966866726,0.22009372687659293],[0.25662535748331744,0.2007626310772164],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13030|2023|Ordinary election|3745","CO-CON-13030|2019|Ordinary election|3746","CO-CON-13030|2015|Ordinary election|3747"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13030|2023|Ordinary election|3745","CO-CON-13030|2019|Ordinary election|3746","CO-CON-13030|2015|Ordinary election|3747"],"shares":[[0.33357784705666604,0.22262974509444344],[0.3080260303687636,0.1841648590021692],[0.35892648774795805,0.2042007001166861]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":40.40010432478047,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13042|2023|Ordinary election|3748","CO-CON-13042|2019|Ordinary election|3749","CO-CON-13042|2015|Ordinary election|3750"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13042|2023|Ordinary election|3748","CO-CON-13042|2019|Ordinary election|3749","CO-CON-13042|2015|Ordinary election|3750"],"shares":[[0.2187567684643708,0.17024041585445093],[0.296979006656426,0.1625704045058884],[0.2220324508966695,0.18872758326216907]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":63.61856051271838,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13052|2023|Ordinary election|3751","CO-CON-13052|2019|Ordinary election|3752","CO-CON-13052|2015|Ordinary election|3753"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13052|2023|Ordinary election|3751","CO-CON-13052|2019|Ordinary election|3752","CO-CON-13052|2015|Ordinary election|3753"],"shares":[[0.15044578839079745,0.11185235987281002],[0.1505530214947977,0.149330709835137],[0.17871403001514527,0.17265592730276744]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.93571956003578,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13062|2023|Ordinary election|3754","CO-CON-13062|2019|Ordinary election|3755","CO-CON-13062|2015|Ordinary election|3756"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13062|2023|Ordinary election|3754","CO-CON-13062|2019|Ordinary election|3755","CO-CON-13062|2015|Ordinary election|3756"],"shares":[[0.3510403530895334,0.34331651954602777],[0.21760676286255648,0.2110479521935578],[0.4876660341555977,0.2383301707779886]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":84.23223516771804,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13074|2023|Ordinary election|3757","CO-CON-13074|2019|Ordinary election|3758","CO-CON-13074|2015|Ordinary election|3759"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13074|2023|Ordinary election|3757","CO-CON-13074|2019|Ordinary election|3758","CO-CON-13074|2015|Ordinary election|3759"],"shares":[[0.21435692921236293,0.19404287138584247],[0.2336693284461317,0.19217175022908758],[0.21645143177989895,0.18276249298147107]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":85.99669897956585,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13140|2023|Ordinary election|3760","CO-CON-13140|2019|Ordinary election|3761","CO-CON-13140|2015|Ordinary election|3762"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13140|2023|Ordinary election|3760","CO-CON-13140|2019|Ordinary election|3761","CO-CON-13140|2015|Ordinary election|3762"],"shares":[[0.17155707860355537,0.15563646748054544],[0.2120907967881408,0.1798177887584929],[0.25827693433327237,0.19608560453630874]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.27329896880165,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-13160","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Cantagallo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.034889516530988,2.462380300957591,5.10406342913776],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13160|2023|Ordinary election|3763","CO-CON-13160|2019|Ordinary election|3764","CO-CON-13160|2015|Ordinary election|3765"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13160|2023|Ordinary election|3763","CO-CON-13160|2019|Ordinary election|3764","CO-CON-13160|2015|Ordinary election|3765"],"shares":[[0.31965442764578833,0.21930553248047846],[0.23881180379128394,0.21418800078170805],[0.2514866204162537,0.2004459861248761]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":63.649729284401765,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[31.965442764578835,21.930553248047847,4.901146369828875,17.262003655092208,0.1329124439275627,19.4218308689151,4.38611064960957,0,0,0,0],[23.881180379128395,21.418800078170804,11.412937267930428,12.995896032831737,9.126441274184092,5.999609145983975,0,4.455735782685167,0,0,10.7094000390854],[20.04459861248761,25.14866204162537,10.728444003964322,8.597621407333994,3.914767096134787,10.034687809712587,7.111000991080277,0.817641228939544,1.5609514370664024,12.041625371655105,0]],"volatility_latest":30.67045555012865,"volatility_previous":28.478518426984962,"volatility_mean":29.574486988556806,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-13188","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Cicuco","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.305406417779999,1.029274161208395,0.5400254129606097],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13188|2023|Ordinary election|3766","CO-CON-13188|2019|Ordinary election|3767","CO-CON-13188|2015|Ordinary election|3768"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13188|2023|Ordinary election|3766","CO-CON-13188|2019|Ordinary election|3767","CO-CON-13188|2015|Ordinary election|3768"],"shares":[[0.28867524035460107,0.22562117617680108],[0.15265338858441385,0.1423606469723299],[0.18535578144853876,0.17995552731893266]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":79.26985679836712,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-13212","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Cordoba","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.412963122152497,9.363260706235916,2.410640066500413],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13212|2023|Ordinary election|3769","CO-CON-13212|2019|Ordinary election|3770","CO-CON-13212|2015|Ordinary election|3771"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13212|2023|Ordinary election|3769","CO-CON-13212|2019|Ordinary election|3770","CO-CON-13212|2015|Ordinary election|3771"],"shares":[[0.3316427404796699,0.20751310925814492],[0.3217505634861007,0.22811795642374155],[0.31296758104738154,0.2888611803823774]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":47.510899540938425,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-13222","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Clemencia","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.199683042789225,2.303000124486495,4.758330831582107],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13222|2023|Ordinary election|3772","CO-CON-13222|2019|Ordinary election|3773","CO-CON-13222|2015|Ordinary election|3774"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13222|2023|Ordinary election|3772","CO-CON-13222|2019|Ordinary election|3773","CO-CON-13222|2015|Ordinary election|3774"],"shares":[[0.22345483359746435,0.1814580031695721],[0.2387650939873024,0.21573509274243743],[0.2832482737916542,0.2356649654758331]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":81.56728526911154,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13244|2023|Ordinary election|3775","CO-CON-13244|2019|Ordinary election|3776","CO-CON-13244|2015|Ordinary election|3777"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13244|2023|Ordinary election|3775","CO-CON-13244|2019|Ordinary election|3776","CO-CON-13244|2015|Ordinary election|3777"],"shares":[[0.21069829671177892,0.12851849945968197],[0.14661962586150312,0.14601794114429492],[0.17800421423404725,0.14954240966128882]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":73.83271788815176,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-13248","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"El Guamo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[33.76152832674572,1.6351394677781386,2.5454545454545396],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13248|2023|Ordinary election|3778","CO-CON-13248|2019|Ordinary election|3779","CO-CON-13248|2015|Ordinary election|3780"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13248|2023|Ordinary election|3778","CO-CON-13248|2019|Ordinary election|3779","CO-CON-13248|2015|Ordinary election|3780"],"shares":[[0.6093544137022397,0.2717391304347826],[0.44597627444693816,0.42962487976915675],[0.5056277056277056,0.4801731601731602]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-13268","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"El Peñon","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.511056511056513,4.546462630294968,3.122540015743901],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13268|2023|Ordinary election|3781","CO-CON-13268|2019|Ordinary election|3782","CO-CON-13268|2015|Ordinary election|3783"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13268|2023|Ordinary election|3781","CO-CON-13268|2019|Ordinary election|3782","CO-CON-13268|2015|Ordinary election|3783"],"shares":[[0.3048730548730549,0.23976248976248976],[0.3324462186737636,0.2869815923708139],[0.30175806874836003,0.270532668590921]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":72.08586651351607,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[30.487305487305488,23.976248976248975,20.024570024570025,18.59131859131859,0,0,0,6.920556920556921,0,0,0],[33.24462186737636,11.732091372809936,28.69815923708139,22.066977156797517,4.258150365934797,0,0,0,0,0,0],[30.175806874836002,0,20.440829178693257,10.784570978745736,8.737864077669903,2.519023878247179,0,0,0,0,27.341905011807924]],"volatility_latest":19.16471452399596,"volatility_previous":34.34064260179021,"volatility_mean":26.752678562893085,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-13300","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Hatillo De Loba","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.476503647016621,3.2011331444759215,17.047721344176768],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13300|2023|Ordinary election|3784","CO-CON-13300|2019|Ordinary election|3785","CO-CON-13300|2015|Ordinary election|3786"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13300|2023|Ordinary election|3784","CO-CON-13300|2019|Ordinary election|3785","CO-CON-13300|2015|Ordinary election|3786"],"shares":[[0.30826258519669975,0.2534975487265335],[0.22861189801699716,0.19660056657223796],[0.438698787785791,0.26822157434402333]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":70.24492867014787,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-13430","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Magangue","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.103448275862068,11.739442803544344,5.762863534675615],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13430|2023|Ordinary election|3787","CO-CON-13430|2019|Ordinary election|3788","CO-CON-13430|2015|Ordinary election|3789"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13430|2023|Ordinary election|3787","CO-CON-13430|2019|Ordinary election|3788","CO-CON-13430|2015|Ordinary election|3789"],"shares":[[0.3796945110332534,0.19866002827463272],[0.23686437295441845,0.119469944918975],[0.21426398210290828,0.15663534675615212]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":25.19905919975948,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13433|2023|Ordinary election|3790","CO-CON-13433|2019|Ordinary election|3791","CO-CON-13433|2015|Ordinary election|3792"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13433|2023|Ordinary election|3790","CO-CON-13433|2019|Ordinary election|3791","CO-CON-13433|2015|Ordinary election|3792"],"shares":[[0.31457975986277875,0.1960205831903945],[0.24168418001304443,0.2348720921805928],[0.28398350231998626,0.1830211376525176]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":58.362315590043565,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-13440","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Margarita","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.0223642172523952,3.6148484357270227,17.700134382799],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13440|2023|Ordinary election|3793","CO-CON-13440|2019|Ordinary election|3794","CO-CON-13440|2015|Ordinary election|3795"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13440|2023|Ordinary election|3793","CO-CON-13440|2019|Ordinary election|3794","CO-CON-13440|2015|Ordinary election|3795"],"shares":[[0.2119808306709265,0.20175718849840255],[0.2844869508834495,0.2483384665261793],[0.4234977922825878,0.24649644845459784]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":82.66056750325278,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13442|2023|Ordinary election|3796","CO-CON-13442|2019|Ordinary election|3797","CO-CON-13442|2015|Ordinary election|3798"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13442|2023|Ordinary election|3796","CO-CON-13442|2019|Ordinary election|3797","CO-CON-13442|2015|Ordinary election|3798"],"shares":[[0.12485041882728361,0.10941364180295172],[0.19256577785625992,0.14709517923362175],[0.19017316920509075,0.1890778218234926]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":88.4936097302248,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-13458","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Montecristo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.698450726720971,5.534709193245778,3.2157906409403445],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13458|2023|Ordinary election|3799","CO-CON-13458|2019|Ordinary election|3800","CO-CON-13458|2015|Ordinary election|3801"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13458|2023|Ordinary election|3799","CO-CON-13458|2019|Ordinary election|3800","CO-CON-13458|2015|Ordinary election|3801"],"shares":[[0.2890911994888995,0.21210669222168982],[0.23058161350844275,0.175234521575985],[0.2049234863606121,0.17276557995120867]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":66.99468870949825,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-13468","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Mompos","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[null,8.005623961484385,1.9068573524019072],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13468|2023|Ordinary election|3802","CO-CON-13468|2019|Ordinary election|3803","CO-CON-13468|2015|Ordinary election|3804"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13468|2023|Ordinary election|3802","CO-CON-13468|2019|Ordinary election|3803","CO-CON-13468|2015|Ordinary election|3804"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.2735716416002727,0.19351540198542883],[0.2568756875687569,0.2378071140447378]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[27.357164160027267,14.767159473392697,16.2839248434238,17.53653444676409,0.6390865323164756,0,19.35154019854288,0,1.2270461420476333,0,2.8375442034851517],[10.02933626696003,23.78071140447378,25.687568756875688,18.436010267693437,0.7150715071507151,7.581591492482581,10.258525852585258,0.41254125412541254,0.8525852585258525,0,2.246057939127246]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":27.38678938690455,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13473|2023|Ordinary election|3805","CO-CON-13473|2019|Ordinary election|3806","CO-CON-13473|2015|Ordinary election|3807"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13473|2023|Ordinary election|3805","CO-CON-13473|2019|Ordinary election|3806","CO-CON-13473|2015|Ordinary election|3807"],"shares":[[0.2511637977698387,0.18079463029122012],[0.1986083984375,0.1917724609375],[0.19199559895475177,0.18553156374638977]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":77.54065737099633,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13490|2023|Ordinary election|3808","CO-CON-13490|2019|Ordinary election|3809","CO-CON-13490|2015|Ordinary election|3810"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13490|2023|Ordinary election|3808","CO-CON-13490|2019|Ordinary election|3809","CO-CON-13490|2015|Ordinary election|3810"],"shares":[[0.3213096559378469,0.2586015538290788],[0.2598560164552623,0.20431950634213233],[0.36958368734069663,0.32497875955819877]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":70.62684646127519,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-13549","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Pinillos","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.3416381968169304,1.4438453806086073,12.894333843797856],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13549|2023|Ordinary election|3811","CO-CON-13549|2019|Ordinary election|3812","CO-CON-13549|2015|Ordinary election|3813"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13549|2023|Ordinary election|3811","CO-CON-13549|2019|Ordinary election|3812","CO-CON-13549|2015|Ordinary election|3813"],"shares":[[0.17081909840846596,0.16740271644029664],[0.22772548661244632,0.21328703280636024],[0.30280755487493616,0.17386421643695762]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":90.36215041673738,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-13580","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Regidor","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.129810159055925,3.060640732265444,8.673158855751673],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13580|2023|Ordinary election|3814","CO-CON-13580|2019|Ordinary election|3815","CO-CON-13580|2015|Ordinary election|3816"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13580|2023|Ordinary election|3814","CO-CON-13580|2019|Ordinary election|3815","CO-CON-13580|2015|Ordinary election|3816"],"shares":[[0.2516675218060544,0.22036942021549513],[0.22940503432494277,0.19879862700228834],[0.31375532562385877,0.22702373706634205]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":81.68302899655822,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-13600","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Rioviejo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.9634792852935412,2.2160068846815832,7.762142532909671],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13600|2023|Ordinary election|3817","CO-CON-13600|2019|Ordinary election|3818","CO-CON-13600|2015|Ordinary election|3819"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13600|2023|Ordinary election|3817","CO-CON-13600|2019|Ordinary election|3818","CO-CON-13600|2015|Ordinary election|3819"],"shares":[[0.31533477321814257,0.29569998036520717],[0.2394578313253012,0.21729776247848537],[0.35497049477984566,0.277349069450749]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.90448055064218,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-13620","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"San Cristobal","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.118957833390471,12.370947292157219,7.57118205349439],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13620|2023|Ordinary election|3820","CO-CON-13620|2019|Ordinary election|3821","CO-CON-13620|2015|Ordinary election|3822"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13620|2023|Ordinary election|3820","CO-CON-13620|2019|Ordinary election|3821","CO-CON-13620|2015|Ordinary election|3822"],"shares":[[0.2975659924580048,0.2063764141241001],[0.32113747509509144,0.19742800217351927],[0.33994823123382223,0.2642364106988784]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":50.30111453484556,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-13647","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"San Estanislao","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.4037921348314608,1.813662308967043,2.008422416585681],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13647|2023|Ordinary election|3823","CO-CON-13647|2019|Ordinary election|3824","CO-CON-13647|2015|Ordinary election|3825"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13647|2023|Ordinary election|3823","CO-CON-13647|2019|Ordinary election|3824","CO-CON-13647|2015|Ordinary election|3825"],"shares":[[0.14896418539325842,0.14492626404494383],[0.18182655127969066,0.16368992819002023],[0.21272000863837598,0.19263578447251917]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":95.06391892376222,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13650|2023|Ordinary election|3826","CO-CON-13650|2019|Ordinary election|3827","CO-CON-13650|2015|Ordinary election|3828"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13650|2023|Ordinary election|3826","CO-CON-13650|2019|Ordinary election|3827","CO-CON-13650|2015|Ordinary election|3828"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.3283938814531549,0.26003824091778205],[0.4521704969554115,0.22687094873305835]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13654|2023|Ordinary election|3829","CO-CON-13654|2019|Ordinary election|3830","CO-CON-13654|2015|Ordinary election|3831"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13654|2023|Ordinary election|3829","CO-CON-13654|2019|Ordinary election|3830","CO-CON-13654|2015|Ordinary election|3831"],"shares":[[0.19010481657100076,0.1778762166209134],[0.21374490390215492,0.17634116352811752],[0.26987152336580544,0.19236199350557673]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.84538246585674,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-13655","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"San Jacinto Del Cauca","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.95865237366003,6.505923924340053,1.5272244355909699],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13655|2023|Ordinary election|3832","CO-CON-13655|2019|Ordinary election|3833","CO-CON-13655|2015|Ordinary election|3834"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13655|2023|Ordinary election|3832","CO-CON-13655|2019|Ordinary election|3833","CO-CON-13655|2015|Ordinary election|3834"],"shares":[[0.2714395099540582,0.1818529862174579],[0.25753481604656,0.19247557680315944],[0.24679061531651172,0.23151837096060202]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":62.60154477471435,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[27.14395099540582,18.051301684532923,7.886676875957121,18.18529862174579,10.183767228177642,0.5551301684532925,14.012251148545175,0,0,0,3.9816232771822357],[25.753481604655995,19.247557680315943,9.769278736229474,13.053419247557681,12.138848472251091,10.683849511536064,9.353564747453753,0,0,0,0],[11.044710048694112,23.151837096060202,9.9601593625498,14.38689685701638,2.257636122177955,0,24.679061531651172,0,6.086764054891545,0,8.432934926958831]],"volatility_latest":15.162658443211592,"volatility_previous":35.27383341757108,"volatility_mean":25.218245930391337,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-13657","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"San Juan Nepomuceno","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[30.62941613982893,8.647047582648575,0.39980550002701065],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13657|2023|Ordinary election|3835","CO-CON-13657|2019|Ordinary election|3836","CO-CON-13657|2015|Ordinary election|3837"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13657|2023|Ordinary election|3835","CO-CON-13657|2019|Ordinary election|3836","CO-CON-13657|2015|Ordinary election|3837"],"shares":[[0.520639642989959,0.21434548159166977],[0.2632333269635009,0.1767628511370151],[0.248959965422227,0.2449619104219569]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-13667","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"San Martin De Loba","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.145577247529523,0.6176016469377252,0.47205725597685344],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13667|2023|Ordinary election|3838","CO-CON-13667|2019|Ordinary election|3839","CO-CON-13667|2015|Ordinary election|3840"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13667|2023|Ordinary election|3838","CO-CON-13667|2019|Ordinary election|3839","CO-CON-13667|2015|Ordinary election|3840"],"shares":[[0.22210171125572425,0.18064593878042903],[0.1580030880082347,0.15182707153885744],[0.18059996954469315,0.17587939698492464]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.40083715901642,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-13670","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"San Pablo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.133592736705577,1.5295887662988967,6.4472671285604335],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13670|2023|Ordinary election|3841","CO-CON-13670|2019|Ordinary election|3842","CO-CON-13670|2015|Ordinary election|3843"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13670|2023|Ordinary election|3841","CO-CON-13670|2019|Ordinary election|3842","CO-CON-13670|2015|Ordinary election|3843"],"shares":[[0.24673838406958115,0.17540245670252538],[0.2204112337011033,0.20511534603811435],[0.24461123941493457,0.18013856812933024]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":73.0812050761547,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-13673","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Santa Catalina","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.5529219452390706,6.658376667420303,2.2860277980980257],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13673|2023|Ordinary election|3844","CO-CON-13673|2019|Ordinary election|3845","CO-CON-13673|2015|Ordinary election|3846"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13673|2023|Ordinary election|3844","CO-CON-13673|2019|Ordinary election|3845","CO-CON-13673|2015|Ordinary election|3846"],"shares":[[0.22588884348181448,0.21035962402942376],[0.22914311553244404,0.162559348858241],[0.2609729334308705,0.23811265544989027]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":84.21065526410332,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13683|2023|Ordinary election|3847","CO-CON-13683|2019|Ordinary election|3848","CO-CON-13683|2015|Ordinary election|3849"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13683|2023|Ordinary election|3847","CO-CON-13683|2019|Ordinary election|3848","CO-CON-13683|2015|Ordinary election|3849"],"shares":[[0.21123321123321123,0.17660910518053374],[0.1973568281938326,0.14801762114537445],[0.2607797886554112,0.21778209644115148]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.06200251621505,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-13688","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Santa Rosa Del Sur","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.8504772004241765,0.8760498117578912,1.424454508027992],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13688|2023|Ordinary election|3850","CO-CON-13688|2019|Ordinary election|3851","CO-CON-13688|2015|Ordinary election|3852"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13688|2023|Ordinary election|3850","CO-CON-13688|2019|Ordinary election|3851","CO-CON-13688|2015|Ordinary election|3852"],"shares":[[0.2713326263697419,0.2028278543655002],[0.22132927888792356,0.21256878077034463],[0.22774804446274186,0.21350349938246194]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":77.42226642707664,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-13744","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Simiti","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.630088292626992,2.44838538909476,3.899683064627258],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13744|2023|Ordinary election|3853","CO-CON-13744|2019|Ordinary election|3854","CO-CON-13744|2015|Ordinary election|3855"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13744|2023|Ordinary election|3853","CO-CON-13744|2019|Ordinary election|3854","CO-CON-13744|2015|Ordinary election|3855"],"shares":[[0.2039903680770554,0.14768948515078548],[0.17654843832715725,0.15206458443620963],[0.29557668458040515,0.2565798539341326]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":77.48731550616326,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-13760","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Soplaviento","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.704724996273661,12.639405204460967,0.8988015978695074],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13760|2023|Ordinary election|3856","CO-CON-13760|2019|Ordinary election|3857","CO-CON-13760|2015|Ordinary election|3858"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13760|2023|Ordinary election|3856","CO-CON-13760|2019|Ordinary election|3857","CO-CON-13760|2015|Ordinary election|3858"],"shares":[[0.3148010135638694,0.2277537636011328],[0.2914498141263941,0.1650557620817844],[0.18974700399467376,0.1807589880159787]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":54.47731640555281,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13780|2023|Ordinary election|3859","CO-CON-13780|2019|Ordinary election|3860","CO-CON-13780|2015|Ordinary election|3861"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13780|2023|Ordinary election|3859","CO-CON-13780|2019|Ordinary election|3860","CO-CON-13780|2015|Ordinary election|3861"],"shares":[[0.17916347870441215,0.17049222137209896],[0.18178175504207292,0.14398290369974623],[0.17068837897853442,0.137379718726869]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":90.06336208637377,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13810|2023|Ordinary election|3862","CO-CON-13810|2019|Ordinary election|3863","CO-CON-13810|2015|Ordinary election|3864"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13810|2023|Ordinary election|3862","CO-CON-13810|2019|Ordinary election|3863","CO-CON-13810|2015|Ordinary election|3864"],"shares":[[0.3063267623077717,0.30560429352874396],[0.30333297144718274,0.205189447399848],[0.3531645569620253,0.2567088607594937]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.23894594906487,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13836|2023|Ordinary election|3865","CO-CON-13836|2019|Ordinary election|3866","CO-CON-13836|2015|Ordinary election|3867"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13836|2023|Ordinary election|3865","CO-CON-13836|2019|Ordinary election|3866","CO-CON-13836|2015|Ordinary election|3867"],"shares":[[0.28117325099992985,0.16808177203938904],[0.2579612213509493,0.15428254456518997],[0.29269691754973887,0.14989584276786524]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":43.38070105488019,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13838|2023|Ordinary election|3868","CO-CON-13838|2019|Ordinary election|3869","CO-CON-13838|2015|Ordinary election|3870"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13838|2023|Ordinary election|3868","CO-CON-13838|2019|Ordinary election|3869","CO-CON-13838|2015|Ordinary election|3870"],"shares":[[0.1930181175430844,0.17604949182501106],[0.20351268469473097,0.14524672428212992],[0.19694327623345984,0.1838137244845625]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":85.51304063524297,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13873|2023|Ordinary election|3871","CO-CON-13873|2019|Ordinary election|3872","CO-CON-13873|2015|Ordinary election|3873"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13873|2023|Ordinary election|3871","CO-CON-13873|2019|Ordinary election|3872","CO-CON-13873|2015|Ordinary election|3873"],"shares":[[0.14875673795861588,0.14632237871674492],[0.1615530817268531,0.1498778169970133],[0.19355828220858895,0.17494887525562372]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":96.58793217031447,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-13894|2023|Ordinary election|3874","CO-CON-13894|2019|Ordinary election|3875","CO-CON-13894|2015|Ordinary election|3876"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-13894|2023|Ordinary election|3874","CO-CON-13894|2019|Ordinary election|3875","CO-CON-13894|2015|Ordinary election|3876"],"shares":[[0.26813451968028956,0.17930930478057608],[0.24623655913978496,0.20798771121351767],[0.2992902890773758,0.19750735675956377]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":62.525961725255264,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15001|2023|Ordinary election|3877","CO-CON-15001|2019|Ordinary election|3878","CO-CON-15001|2015|Ordinary election|3879"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15001|2023|Ordinary election|3877","CO-CON-15001|2019|Ordinary election|3878","CO-CON-15001|2015|Ordinary election|3879"],"shares":[[0.15717768353691053,0.11801975672312653],[0.16650651497098048,0.12896695750214604],[0.18163771013431704,0.1588432405034776]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":81.48196485399765,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15022","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Almeida","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.598320503848846,1.4032496307237814,0.854037267080745],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15022|2023|Ordinary election|3880","CO-CON-15022|2019|Ordinary election|3881","CO-CON-15022|2015|Ordinary election|3882"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15022|2023|Ordinary election|3880","CO-CON-15022|2019|Ordinary election|3881","CO-CON-15022|2015|Ordinary election|3882"],"shares":[[0.2589223233030091,0.20293911826452063],[0.2289512555391433,0.21491875923190548],[0.2864906832298137,0.2779503105590062]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.67314540882742,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15047","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Aquitania (Puebloviejo)","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.9244249726177447,0.6410256410256423,18.97267759562842],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15047|2023|Ordinary election|3883","CO-CON-15047|2019|Ordinary election|3884","CO-CON-15047|2015|Ordinary election|3885"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15047|2023|Ordinary election|3883","CO-CON-15047|2019|Ordinary election|3884","CO-CON-15047|2015|Ordinary election|3885"],"shares":[[0.1891566265060241,0.15991237677984665],[0.18764568764568765,0.18123543123543123],[0.31693989071038253,0.12721311475409836]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.77884782279409,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15051","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Arcabuco","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.1163032191069604,3.4106412005457027,1.5341264871634301],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15051|2023|Ordinary election|3886","CO-CON-15051|2019|Ordinary election|3887","CO-CON-15051|2015|Ordinary election|3888"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15051|2023|Ordinary election|3886","CO-CON-15051|2019|Ordinary election|3887","CO-CON-15051|2015|Ordinary election|3888"],"shares":[[0.18561786085150572,0.17445482866043613],[0.19399727148703957,0.15989085948158255],[0.1815904821540388,0.16624921728240452]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":90.76806529827886,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15087","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Belen","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.847563515201998,11.403324216284457,15.803053106858744],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15087|2023|Ordinary election|3889","CO-CON-15087|2019|Ordinary election|3890","CO-CON-15087|2015|Ordinary election|3891"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15087|2023|Ordinary election|3889","CO-CON-15087|2019|Ordinary election|3890","CO-CON-15087|2015|Ordinary election|3891"],"shares":[[0.3875468554768846,0.22907122032486463],[0.3505154639175258,0.23648222175468125],[0.35540743926037416,0.19737690819178672]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":27.45079657653795,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15090|2023|Ordinary election|3892","CO-CON-15090|2019|Ordinary election|3893","CO-CON-15090|2015|Ordinary election|3894"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15090|2023|Ordinary election|3892","CO-CON-15090|2019|Ordinary election|3893","CO-CON-15090|2015|Ordinary election|3894"],"shares":[[0.25020576131687244,0.2353909465020576],[0.2889087656529517,0.23255813953488372],[0.2400756143667297,0.23629489603024573]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.91392572102117,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15092|2023|Ordinary election|3895","CO-CON-15092|2019|Ordinary election|3896","CO-CON-15092|2015|Ordinary election|3897"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15092|2023|Ordinary election|3895","CO-CON-15092|2019|Ordinary election|3896","CO-CON-15092|2015|Ordinary election|3897"],"shares":[[0.27656929770043504,0.17029210689869484],[0.22193211488250653,0.18733681462140994],[0.24513096037609133,0.21423774345198118]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":61.38288687410793,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15097|2023|Ordinary election|3898","CO-CON-15097|2019|Ordinary election|3899","CO-CON-15097|2015|Ordinary election|3900"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15097|2023|Ordinary election|3898","CO-CON-15097|2019|Ordinary election|3899","CO-CON-15097|2015|Ordinary election|3900"],"shares":[[0.26297357529449217,0.1798790194205667],[0.3898145237346746,0.18861993083935868],[0.2683007618416694,0.2533951639615767]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":44.14716440952032,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15104","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Boyaca","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.186290768380321,6.427915518824609,9.835515273581738],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15104|2023|Ordinary election|3901","CO-CON-15104|2019|Ordinary election|3902","CO-CON-15104|2015|Ordinary election|3903"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15104|2023|Ordinary election|3901","CO-CON-15104|2019|Ordinary election|3902","CO-CON-15104|2015|Ordinary election|3903"],"shares":[[0.2758430071862908,0.20398009950248755],[0.3146617692072238,0.25038261401897766],[0.337361530715005,0.23900637797918767]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":63.88149677983126,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15106|2023|Ordinary election|3904","CO-CON-15106|2019|Ordinary election|3905","CO-CON-15106|2015|Ordinary election|3906"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15106|2023|Ordinary election|3904","CO-CON-15106|2019|Ordinary election|3905","CO-CON-15106|2015|Ordinary election|3906"],"shares":[[0.25,0.22401247401247404],[0.3365500603136309,0.23341375150784077],[0.279810298102981,0.19986449864498645]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":72.73600590997397,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15109|2023|Ordinary election|3907","CO-CON-15109|2019|Ordinary election|3908","CO-CON-15109|2015|Ordinary election|3909"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15109|2023|Ordinary election|3907","CO-CON-15109|2019|Ordinary election|3908","CO-CON-15109|2015|Ordinary election|3909"],"shares":[[0.16566265060240964,0.16456736035049288],[0.21226142278773857,0.2050318102949682],[0.35039246467817897,0.34850863422291994]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":98.49277952774646,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,13.444687842278205,16.566265060240966,16.45673603504929,14.81380065717415,0,0,0,0,38.71851040525739],[19.722382880277618,4.713707345286292,21.226142278773857,19.519953730480047,20.50318102949682,14.314632735685366,0,0,0,0,0],[1.695447409733124,0,28.414442700156986,35.0392464678179,34.850863422291994,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":39.217678326746174,"volatility_previous":37.055275551516154,"volatility_mean":38.136476939131164,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15114","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Busbanza","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.3033707865168545,1.8300653594771248,11.68437025796662],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15114|2023|Ordinary election|3910","CO-CON-15114|2019|Ordinary election|3911","CO-CON-15114|2015|Ordinary election|3912"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15114|2023|Ordinary election|3910","CO-CON-15114|2019|Ordinary election|3911","CO-CON-15114|2015|Ordinary election|3912"],"shares":[[0.38764044943820225,0.3146067415730337],[0.39346405228758174,0.37516339869281046],[0.4658573596358119,0.3490136570561457]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":69.50260447225044,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[38.764044943820224,0,0,0,0,29.775280898876403,31.46067415730337,0,0,0,0],[39.34640522875817,0,0,0,0,37.51633986928105,23.137254901960784,0,0,0,0],[46.585735963581186,0,0,0,0,18.512898330804248,34.901365705614566,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":8.32341925534259,"volatility_previous":19.0034415384768,"volatility_mean":13.663430396909694,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15131","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Caldas","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.232100708103857,2.030456852791879,0.9489380930863085],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15131|2023|Ordinary election|3913","CO-CON-15131|2019|Ordinary election|3914","CO-CON-15131|2015|Ordinary election|3915"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15131|2023|Ordinary election|3913","CO-CON-15131|2019|Ordinary election|3914","CO-CON-15131|2015|Ordinary election|3915"],"shares":[[0.2985837922895358,0.24626278520849723],[0.2561144439317028,0.235809875403784],[0.2114776321735201,0.20198825124265704]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.78354354995744,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,24.626278520849723,3.737214791502754,8.654602675059008,1.4948859166011015,29.85837922895358,11.723052714398111,1.6522423288749017,0,0,18.25334382376082],[15.089986155976003,25.61144439317028,11.075219197046609,0,8.906322104291647,23.580987540378402,15.736040609137056,0,0,0,0],[21.14776321735201,16.131947582467237,20.198825124265703,18.798011748757343,16.31269769543606,7.410754631721645,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":34.83758051626991,"volatility_previous":41.38577032849686,"volatility_mean":38.111675422383385,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15135","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Campohermoso","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.358126721763085,13.848720800889879,1.4696485623003213],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15135|2023|Ordinary election|3916","CO-CON-15135|2019|Ordinary election|3917","CO-CON-15135|2015|Ordinary election|3918"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15135|2023|Ordinary election|3916","CO-CON-15135|2019|Ordinary election|3917","CO-CON-15135|2015|Ordinary election|3918"],"shares":[[0.2798898071625344,0.1763085399449036],[0.3242491657397108,0.18576195773081203],[0.24920127795527158,0.23450479233226837]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":47.41771435222577,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15162","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Cerinza","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.4312617702448236,5.320435308343409,3.038674033149171],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15162|2023|Ordinary election|3919","CO-CON-15162|2019|Ordinary election|3920","CO-CON-15162|2015|Ordinary election|3921"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15162|2023|Ordinary election|3919","CO-CON-15162|2019|Ordinary election|3920","CO-CON-15162|2015|Ordinary election|3921"],"shares":[[0.26629001883239173,0.2519774011299435],[0.27690447400241835,0.22370012091898428],[0.32004735595895817,0.2896606156274665]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.20622471017583,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[25.19774011299435,13.145009416195856,0,11.563088512241055,0,17.401129943502823,0,0,0,0,32.69303201506591],[27.690447400241837,0,0,14.631197097944376,22.370012091898428,22.208786779524385,9.592906086255542,0,0,0,3.506650544135429],[32.004735595895816,0,28.966061562746646,20.994475138121548,0,18.03472770323599,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":42.33139088712634,"volatility_previous":39.643627798577796,"volatility_mean":40.987509342852064,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15172","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Chinavita","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.462829736211027,15.984593163216175,13.317073170731707],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15172|2023|Ordinary election|3922","CO-CON-15172|2019|Ordinary election|3923","CO-CON-15172|2015|Ordinary election|3924"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15172|2023|Ordinary election|3922","CO-CON-15172|2019|Ordinary election|3923","CO-CON-15172|2015|Ordinary election|3924"],"shares":[[0.4541966426858513,0.339568345323741],[0.3755416466056813,0.21569571497351953],[0.37658536585365854,0.24341463414634146]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":34.976084461176804,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,33.9568345323741,0,18.705035971223023,45.41966426858513,1.9184652278177459,0,0,0,0],[6.644198363023592,0,21.56957149735195,15.695714973519499,18.53635050553683,37.55416466056813,0,0,0,0,0],[17.70731707317073,0,24.341463414634145,37.65853658536585,0,0,20.29268292682927,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":22.33991333654309,"volatility_previous":56.09051516610496,"volatility_mean":39.21521425132403,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15176|2023|Ordinary election|3925","CO-CON-15176|2019|Ordinary election|3926","CO-CON-15176|2015|Ordinary election|3927"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15176|2023|Ordinary election|3925","CO-CON-15176|2019|Ordinary election|3926","CO-CON-15176|2015|Ordinary election|3927"],"shares":[[0.20133262040883476,0.16624850902809196],[0.19728058320022934,0.15136994716795674],[0.1801767354915456,0.17911462316254567]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":82.53506556448627,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15180","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Chiscas","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.617507136060894,1.6762452107279664,4.273919378338999],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15180|2023|Ordinary election|3928","CO-CON-15180|2019|Ordinary election|3929","CO-CON-15180|2015|Ordinary election|3930"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15180|2023|Ordinary election|3928","CO-CON-15180|2019|Ordinary election|3929","CO-CON-15180|2015|Ordinary election|3930"],"shares":[[0.28496669838249283,0.2687916270218839],[0.23802681992337163,0.22126436781609196],[0.34774162214667315,0.3050024283632832]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":90.49615108655587,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15183|2023|Ordinary election|3931","CO-CON-15183|2019|Ordinary election|3932","CO-CON-15183|2015|Ordinary election|3933"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15183|2023|Ordinary election|3931","CO-CON-15183|2019|Ordinary election|3932","CO-CON-15183|2015|Ordinary election|3933"],"shares":[[0.19347152728139147,0.17226590421729807],[0.2449664429530201,0.18766133195663395],[0.2718792866941015,0.18216735253772293]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.55694972349512,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15185|2023|Ordinary election|3934","CO-CON-15185|2019|Ordinary election|3935","CO-CON-15185|2015|Ordinary election|3936"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15185|2023|Ordinary election|3934","CO-CON-15185|2019|Ordinary election|3935","CO-CON-15185|2015|Ordinary election|3936"],"shares":[[0.21078305519897306,0.17612323491655968],[0.3429752066115702,0.24044421487603304],[0.28494318181818185,0.203125]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":70.13149606403631,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15187","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Chivata","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.31807602792863,2.793296089385475,4.705246078961601],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15187|2023|Ordinary election|3937","CO-CON-15187|2019|Ordinary election|3938","CO-CON-15187|2015|Ordinary election|3939"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15187|2023|Ordinary election|3937","CO-CON-15187|2019|Ordinary election|3938","CO-CON-15187|2015|Ordinary election|3939"],"shares":[[0.32467028704422035,0.22148952676493405],[0.2397579143389199,0.21182495344506516],[0.3347755543537047,0.2877230935640887]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":62.50320474265511,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15189","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Cienega","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.572370590174746,6.3399588759424255,7.994186046511629],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15189|2023|Ordinary election|3940","CO-CON-15189|2019|Ordinary election|3941","CO-CON-15189|2015|Ordinary election|3942"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15189|2023|Ordinary election|3940","CO-CON-15189|2019|Ordinary election|3941","CO-CON-15189|2015|Ordinary election|3942"],"shares":[[0.27431585888559185,0.18859215298384438],[0.3272789581905415,0.26387936943111723],[0.32049418604651164,0.24055232558139536]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":60.775856892306315,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[11.836465545664359,0,11.704582921200132,18.859215298384438,0,27.431585888559184,0,13.22123310253874,0,0,16.94691724365315],[13.43385880740233,0,18.1631254283756,9.287183002056203,26.387936943111722,32.72789581905415,0,0,0,0,0],[24.055232558139537,7.376453488372093,32.049418604651166,15.95203488372093,11.773255813953488,8.793604651162791,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":39.740182642520125,"volatility_previous":38.54897229704959,"volatility_mean":39.144577469784856,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15204","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Combita","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.228855721393035,1.1723329425556877,2.2665166371965917],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15204|2023|Ordinary election|3943","CO-CON-15204|2019|Ordinary election|3944","CO-CON-15204|2015|Ordinary election|3945"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15204|2023|Ordinary election|3943","CO-CON-15204|2019|Ordinary election|3944","CO-CON-15204|2015|Ordinary election|3945"],"shares":[[0.16753731343283584,0.12524875621890547],[0.18947831184056274,0.17775498241500587],[0.20205754701816428,0.17939238064619836]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":84.42167510338908,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15212","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Coper","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.26893164142448,0.22045855379188595,0.6566604127579758],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15212|2023|Ordinary election|3946","CO-CON-15212|2019|Ordinary election|3947","CO-CON-15212|2015|Ordinary election|3948"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15212|2023|Ordinary election|3946","CO-CON-15212|2019|Ordinary election|3947","CO-CON-15212|2015|Ordinary election|3948"],"shares":[[0.21817437576749898,0.2054850593532542],[0.24911816578483242,0.24691358024691357],[0.26172607879924953,0.2551594746716698]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":95.53418703865975,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15215","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Corrales","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.896405919661735,2.003642987249549,6.46766169154229],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15215|2023|Ordinary election|3949","CO-CON-15215|2019|Ordinary election|3950","CO-CON-15215|2015|Ordinary election|3951"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15215|2023|Ordinary election|3949","CO-CON-15215|2019|Ordinary election|3950","CO-CON-15215|2015|Ordinary election|3951"],"shares":[[0.42177589852008457,0.29281183932346727],[0.5100182149362478,0.48998178506375223],[0.36629353233830847,0.3016169154228856]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":55.07148691436933,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[42.17758985200846,0,29.281183932346725,0,0,28.54122621564482,0,0,0,0,0],[51.001821493624774,0,0,0,0,48.998178506375226,0,0,0,0,0],[36.62935323383085,3.0472636815920398,30.16169154228856,0,0,25.248756218905474,0,0,0,0,4.912935323383085]],"volatility_latest":29.28118393234672,"volatility_previous":38.12189054726368,"volatility_mean":33.701537239805205,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15218","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Covarachia","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.64312832194381,7.869742198100408,10.441962117532782],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15218|2023|Ordinary election|3952","CO-CON-15218|2019|Ordinary election|3953","CO-CON-15218|2015|Ordinary election|3954"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15218|2023|Ordinary election|3952","CO-CON-15218|2019|Ordinary election|3953","CO-CON-15218|2015|Ordinary election|3954"],"shares":[[0.2604403948367502,0.16400911161731208],[0.2722749886928991,0.19357756671189505],[0.26663428848955806,0.1622146673142302]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":54.04502067825157,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15223","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Cubara","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.9394233884029788,4.959785522788202,2.214714714714713],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15223|2023|Ordinary election|3955","CO-CON-15223|2019|Ordinary election|3956","CO-CON-15223|2015|Ordinary election|3957"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15223|2023|Ordinary election|3955","CO-CON-15223|2019|Ordinary election|3956","CO-CON-15223|2015|Ordinary election|3957"],"shares":[[0.3087139617751863,0.29931972789115646],[0.23056300268096513,0.18096514745308312],[0.298048048048048,0.2759009009009009]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":88.6346941932514,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15224","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Cucaita","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[25.601750547045956,4.973424449506457,5.417160933175168],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15224|2023|Ordinary election|3958","CO-CON-15224|2019|Ordinary election|3959","CO-CON-15224|2015|Ordinary election|3960"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15224|2023|Ordinary election|3958","CO-CON-15224|2019|Ordinary election|3959","CO-CON-15224|2015|Ordinary election|3960"],"shares":[[0.46097738876732314,0.2049598832968636],[0.21716021260440396,0.1674259681093394],[0.22854883353103994,0.17437722419928825]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":13.026031218014856,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15226","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Cuitiva","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.1407459535538358,3.159441587068333,8.480825958702063],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15226|2023|Ordinary election|3961","CO-CON-15226|2019|Ordinary election|3962","CO-CON-15226|2015|Ordinary election|3963"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15226|2023|Ordinary election|3961","CO-CON-15226|2019|Ordinary election|3962","CO-CON-15226|2015|Ordinary election|3963"],"shares":[[0.25123152709359603,0.2498240675580577],[0.23144746509919176,0.19985304922850844],[0.24778761061946902,0.1629793510324484]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":90.59818677938496,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[14.496833216045038,25.123152709359605,15.200562983814216,0,0,20.19704433497537,0,24.98240675580577,0,0,0],[19.32402645113887,19.985304922850844,17.266715650257165,8.082292432035269,9.478324761204997,23.144746509919177,0,2.718589272593681,0,0,0],[12.094395280235988,16.29793510324484,24.778761061946902,15.117994100294986,7.669616519174041,15.412979351032448,0,0,0,0,8.628318584070797]],"volatility_latest":27.40166526972085,"volatility_previous":23.176065664020253,"volatility_mean":25.288865466870554,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15232","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Chiquiza","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.2724120851906875,5.160427807486631,1.0947853644482848],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15232|2023|Ordinary election|3964","CO-CON-15232|2019|Ordinary election|3965","CO-CON-15232|2015|Ordinary election|3966"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15232|2023|Ordinary election|3964","CO-CON-15232|2019|Ordinary election|3965","CO-CON-15232|2015|Ordinary election|3966"],"shares":[[0.19910846953937594,0.19638434868746907],[0.29037433155080217,0.23877005347593586],[0.22904062229904926,0.21809276865456642]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":90.89472935097385,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15236","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Chivor","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.018195602729339,11.001642036124796,7.940904893813485],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15236|2023|Ordinary election|3967","CO-CON-15236|2019|Ordinary election|3968","CO-CON-15236|2015|Ordinary election|3969"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15236|2023|Ordinary election|3967","CO-CON-15236|2019|Ordinary election|3968","CO-CON-15236|2015|Ordinary election|3969"],"shares":[[0.32297194844579225,0.28278999241849884],[0.35139573070607555,0.24137931034482757],[0.3878116343490305,0.30840258541089566]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":67.47249769071804,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15238|2023|Ordinary election|3970","CO-CON-15238|2019|Ordinary election|3971","CO-CON-15238|2015|Ordinary election|3972"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15238|2023|Ordinary election|3970","CO-CON-15238|2019|Ordinary election|3971","CO-CON-15238|2015|Ordinary election|3972"],"shares":[[0.13045919157503486,0.12871689639151307],[0.17772774035755187,0.1634800163052973],[0.15853708819527482,0.14486867604007753]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":96.65673222934542,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15244","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"El Cocuy","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[24.167806657546738,14.1894925909295,1.1509517485613117],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15244|2023|Ordinary election|3973","CO-CON-15244|2019|Ordinary election|3974","CO-CON-15244|2015|Ordinary election|3975"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15244|2023|Ordinary election|3973","CO-CON-15244|2019|Ordinary election|3974","CO-CON-15244|2015|Ordinary election|3975"],"shares":[[0.4213406292749658,0.17966256269949843],[0.4351145038167939,0.29321957790749886],[0.4448871181938911,0.43337760070827797]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":5.636865266684888,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15248|2023|Ordinary election|3976","CO-CON-15248|2019|Ordinary election|3977","CO-CON-15248|2015|Ordinary election|3978"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15248|2023|Ordinary election|3976","CO-CON-15248|2019|Ordinary election|3977","CO-CON-15248|2015|Ordinary election|3978"],"shares":[[0.2824102251978089,0.263542300669507],[0.2028725314183124,0.19389587073608616],[0.22938144329896906,0.2190721649484536]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":92.47765962164972,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15272","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Firavitoba","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.918032786885245,14.709780015902465,4.775857017286842],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15272|2023|Ordinary election|3979","CO-CON-15272|2019|Ordinary election|3980","CO-CON-15272|2015|Ordinary election|3981"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15272|2023|Ordinary election|3979","CO-CON-15272|2019|Ordinary election|3980","CO-CON-15272|2015|Ordinary election|3981"],"shares":[[0.18678589170392448,0.13760556383507205],[0.29578584680625497,0.14868804664723032],[0.2519777322004102,0.20421916202754176]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":60.793303106847155,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[9.761549925484351,13.760556383507204,18.67858917039245,0,11.624441132637854,9.289617486338798,0,12.791852955787382,0,0,24.093392945851964],[10.310098065200107,13.437582825337927,11.184733633713225,9.753511794328121,14.868804664723031,29.578584680625497,0,10.86668433607209,0,0,0],[20.421916202754176,8.789920890711983,25.197773220041018,16.78874890125989,13.741576325813067,15.060064459419864,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":33.835390660415754,"volatility_previous":31.16009483081363,"volatility_mean":32.497742745614694,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15276","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Floresta","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.784648963259368,0.8399832003359933,2.2309711286089247],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15276|2023|Ordinary election|3982","CO-CON-15276|2019|Ordinary election|3983","CO-CON-15276|2015|Ordinary election|3984"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15276|2023|Ordinary election|3982","CO-CON-15276|2019|Ordinary election|3983","CO-CON-15276|2015|Ordinary election|3984"],"shares":[[0.24845398326664242,0.17060749363404873],[0.20873582528349435,0.2003359932801344],[0.28915135608049,0.2668416447944007]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":74.27059274541344,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15293","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Gachantiva","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[null,2.1451392058420815,2.5067144136078774],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. MISSING ordinary-cycle return(s): [2023]; no zero or substitute election inserted. Known 2023-12-10 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15293|CO-CON-15293-2023-12-10-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6812","CO-CON-15293|2019|Ordinary election|3985","CO-CON-15293|2015|Ordinary election|3986"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15293|CO-CON-15293-2023-12-10-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6812","CO-CON-15293|2023|Ordinary election|6819","CO-CON-15293|2019|Ordinary election|3985","CO-CON-15293|2015|Ordinary election|3986"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.18804198995892285,0.16659059790050204],[0.22381378692927484,0.19874664279319607]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Mixed list-type source rows or prior outcome exclusion; vote comparison withheld":1,"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":2},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15296","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Gameza","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.3545706371191137,6.9402736069402735,5.182608695652171],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15296|2023|Ordinary election|3987","CO-CON-15296|2019|Ordinary election|3988","CO-CON-15296|2015|Ordinary election|3989"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15296|2023|Ordinary election|3987","CO-CON-15296|2019|Ordinary election|3988","CO-CON-15296|2015|Ordinary election|3989"],"shares":[[0.18628808864265928,0.16274238227146814],[0.2572572572572573,0.18785452118785453],[0.2796521739130435,0.22782608695652176]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":79.93457333040617,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15299","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Garagoa","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.669307976756471,0.2588810585358843,18.72086247086247],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15299|2023|Ordinary election|3990","CO-CON-15299|2019|Ordinary election|3991","CO-CON-15299|2015|Ordinary election|3992"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15299|2023|Ordinary election|3990","CO-CON-15299|2019|Ordinary election|3991","CO-CON-15299|2015|Ordinary election|3992"],"shares":[[0.23652931854199682,0.1698362387744321],[0.15978714224075938,0.15719833165540054],[0.3365384615384615,0.14932983682983683]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":70.24332324649552,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15317|2023|Ordinary election|3993","CO-CON-15317|2019|Ordinary election|3994","CO-CON-15317|2015|Ordinary election|3995"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15317|2023|Ordinary election|3993","CO-CON-15317|2019|Ordinary election|3994","CO-CON-15317|2015|Ordinary election|3995"],"shares":[[0.32901134521880065,0.2544570502431118],[0.29462738301559793,0.25476603119584057],[0.29691629955947135,0.28105726872246695]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":70.86155719247952,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15322","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Guateque","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.227950653654947,0.23112480739599306,2.4277688603531296],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15322|2023|Ordinary election|3996","CO-CON-15322|2019|Ordinary election|3997","CO-CON-15322|2015|Ordinary election|3998"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15322|2023|Ordinary election|3996","CO-CON-15322|2019|Ordinary election|3997","CO-CON-15322|2015|Ordinary election|3998"],"shares":[[0.2135886577057632,0.19130915116921376],[0.22862095531587057,0.22630970724191063],[0.2267255216693419,0.2024478330658106]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":91.7555763977646,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15325","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Guayata","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.887983706720977,14.827201783723524,1.3544891640866865],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15325|2023|Ordinary election|3999","CO-CON-15325|2019|Ordinary election|4000","CO-CON-15325|2015|Ordinary election|4001"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15325|2023|Ordinary election|3999","CO-CON-15325|2019|Ordinary election|4000","CO-CON-15325|2015|Ordinary election|4001"],"shares":[[0.2997284453496266,0.25084860828241684],[0.31512448903753254,0.16685247120029728],[0.2619969040247678,0.24845201238390094]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":62.41800162220844,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15332","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Guican","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.19579050416054855,4.742478327383989,4.756097560975608],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15332|2023|Ordinary election|4002","CO-CON-15332|2019|Ordinary election|4003","CO-CON-15332|2015|Ordinary election|4004"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15332|2023|Ordinary election|4002","CO-CON-15332|2019|Ordinary election|4003","CO-CON-15332|2015|Ordinary election|4004"],"shares":[[0.18844836025452763,0.18649045521292215],[0.2233554309026007,0.17593064762876082],[0.3073170731707317,0.2597560975609756]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":89.92086221595457,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15362","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Iza","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.767375071797819,1.9441069258809236,19.06887755102041],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15362|2023|Ordinary election|4005","CO-CON-15362|2019|Ordinary election|4006","CO-CON-15362|2015|Ordinary election|4007"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15362|2023|Ordinary election|4005","CO-CON-15362|2019|Ordinary election|4006","CO-CON-15362|2015|Ordinary election|4007"],"shares":[[0.2601952900631821,0.2125215393452039],[0.2515188335358445,0.23207776427703525],[0.3877551020408163,0.19706632653061223]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":73.24727562027495,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15367|2023|Ordinary election|4008","CO-CON-15367|2019|Ordinary election|4009","CO-CON-15367|2015|Ordinary election|4010"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15367|2023|Ordinary election|4008","CO-CON-15367|2019|Ordinary election|4009","CO-CON-15367|2015|Ordinary election|4010"],"shares":[[0.28871978513876456,0.2844673231871083],[0.30948419301164726,0.2453054433087711],[0.3298145506419401,0.20114122681883026]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":82.66378276791622,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15368|2023|Ordinary election|4011","CO-CON-15368|2019|Ordinary election|4012","CO-CON-15368|2015|Ordinary election|4013"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15368|2023|Ordinary election|4011","CO-CON-15368|2019|Ordinary election|4012","CO-CON-15368|2015|Ordinary election|4013"],"shares":[[0.26294820717131473,0.20039840637450201],[0.20645952575633686,0.16680294358135733],[0.2913558578323826,0.1763931548924967]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":69.53843728771496,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15377","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Labranzagrande","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.7273061374494638,3.284210526315789,5.294705294705295],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15377|2023|Ordinary election|4014","CO-CON-15377|2019|Ordinary election|4015","CO-CON-15377|2015|Ordinary election|4016"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15377|2023|Ordinary election|4014","CO-CON-15377|2019|Ordinary election|4015","CO-CON-15377|2015|Ordinary election|4016"],"shares":[[0.298787210584344,0.28151414920984935],[0.23199999999999998,0.1991578947368421],[0.2777222777222777,0.22477522477522477]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.24441315082527,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15380","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"La Capilla","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[46.604086140254005,9.04311251314406,19.780219780219777],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15380|2023|Ordinary election|4017","CO-CON-15380|2019|Ordinary election|4018","CO-CON-15380|2015|Ordinary election|4019"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15380|2023|Ordinary election|4017","CO-CON-15380|2019|Ordinary election|4018","CO-CON-15380|2015|Ordinary election|4019"],"shares":[[0.6697956929872998,0.2037548315847598],[0.4263932702418507,0.3359621451104101],[0.4972527472527472,0.29945054945054944]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[66.97956929872998,0,20.37548315847598,0,0,12.644947542794036,0,0,0,0,0],[21.188222923238698,0,33.59621451104101,0,2.576235541535226,42.63932702418507,0,0,0,0,0],[29.945054945054945,0,49.72527472527472,1.4285714285714286,18.9010989010989,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":45.79134637549129,"volatility_previous":42.639327024185064,"volatility_mean":44.215336699838176,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15401","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"La Victoria","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.3824884792626726,1.1618900077459315,0.7751937984496102],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15401|2023|Ordinary election|4020","CO-CON-15401|2019|Ordinary election|4021","CO-CON-15401|2015|Ordinary election|4022"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15401|2023|Ordinary election|4020","CO-CON-15401|2019|Ordinary election|4021","CO-CON-15401|2015|Ordinary election|4022"],"shares":[[0.2780337941628264,0.2642089093701997],[0.2997676219984508,0.2881487219209915],[0.326442721791559,0.3186907838070629]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":93.72210265136827,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,27.80337941628264,0,26.42089093701997,21.044546850998465,24.731182795698924,0,0,0,0,0],[0,28.81487219209915,0,22.850503485670025,29.97676219984508,18.357862122385747,0,0,0,0,0],[0,31.869078380706288,25.150732127476314,9.043927648578812,32.6442721791559,0,0,0,0,0,1.2919896640826873]],"volatility_latest":9.943708124663122,"volatility_previous":32.164437959476956,"volatility_mean":21.054073042070037,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15403|2023|Ordinary election|4023","CO-CON-15403|2019|Ordinary election|4024","CO-CON-15403|2015|Ordinary election|4025"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15403|2023|Ordinary election|4023","CO-CON-15403|2019|Ordinary election|4024","CO-CON-15403|2015|Ordinary election|4025"],"shares":[[0.19281045751633985,0.1770152505446623],[0.22691879866518352,0.1885428253615128],[0.19590114526823388,0.1838456901748041]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":88.90226915827463,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15407","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Villa De Leiva","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.440918444709194,9.077225888618731,1.8743400211193233],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15407|2023|Ordinary election|4026","CO-CON-15407|2019|Ordinary election|4027","CO-CON-15407|2015|Ordinary election|4028"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15407|2023|Ordinary election|4026","CO-CON-15407|2019|Ordinary election|4027","CO-CON-15407|2015|Ordinary election|4028"],"shares":[[0.3144156828766381,0.1800064984295462],[0.271390529118907,0.1806182702327197],[0.2162090813093981,0.19746568109820486]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":45.12423582238466,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15425","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Macanal","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[35.01564945226917,16.856780735107726,16.600790513833992],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15425|2023|Ordinary election|4029","CO-CON-15425|2019|Ordinary election|4030","CO-CON-15425|2015|Ordinary election|4031"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15425|2023|Ordinary election|4029","CO-CON-15425|2019|Ordinary election|4030","CO-CON-15425|2015|Ordinary election|4031"],"shares":[[0.5492957746478874,0.19913928012519563],[0.4076890578791719,0.23912125052809466],[0.463768115942029,0.2977602108036891]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15442|2023|Ordinary election|4032","CO-CON-15442|2019|Ordinary election|4033","CO-CON-15442|2015|Ordinary election|4034"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15442|2023|Ordinary election|4032","CO-CON-15442|2019|Ordinary election|4033","CO-CON-15442|2015|Ordinary election|4034"],"shares":[[0.2657243816254417,0.25371024734982334],[0.28708133971291866,0.23873079828758498],[0.36850738108255876,0.3225806451612903]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.846841707451,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15455|2023|Ordinary election|4035","CO-CON-15455|2019|Ordinary election|4036","CO-CON-15455|2015|Ordinary election|4037"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15455|2023|Ordinary election|4035","CO-CON-15455|2019|Ordinary election|4036","CO-CON-15455|2015|Ordinary election|4037"],"shares":[[0.3565249401803791,0.20283452972575006],[0.2680851063829787,0.1761332099907493],[0.46533880101542663,0.2669400507713337]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":30.18015489257222,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15464|2023|Ordinary election|4038","CO-CON-15464|2019|Ordinary election|4039","CO-CON-15464|2015|Ordinary election|4040"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15464|2023|Ordinary election|4038","CO-CON-15464|2019|Ordinary election|4039","CO-CON-15464|2015|Ordinary election|4040"],"shares":[[0.17023172905525846,0.1633986928104575],[0.1975540921919097,0.15083098149890248],[0.20522141440846003,0.17250495703899538]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":89.3057996541354,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15466|2023|Ordinary election|4041","CO-CON-15466|2019|Ordinary election|4042","CO-CON-15466|2015|Ordinary election|4043"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15466|2023|Ordinary election|4041","CO-CON-15466|2019|Ordinary election|4042","CO-CON-15466|2015|Ordinary election|4043"],"shares":[[0.27439839572192515,0.23663101604278075],[0.2923076923076923,0.25196581196581197],[0.18161683277962345,0.18014027316352899]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":82.5446760641699,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15469","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Moniquira","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.73519105623227,3.071242006664864,5.903470283207017],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15469|2023|Ordinary election|4044","CO-CON-15469|2019|Ordinary election|4045","CO-CON-15469|2015|Ordinary election|4046"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15469|2023|Ordinary election|4044","CO-CON-15469|2019|Ordinary election|4045","CO-CON-15469|2015|Ordinary election|4046"],"shares":[[0.21842149174036377,0.13106958117804104],[0.16067729442493017,0.12996487435828155],[0.22726366174710808,0.16822895891503792]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":66.2358286797024,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15476","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Motavita","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.4228918183720456,1.0523854069223564,0.9564293304994678],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15476|2023|Ordinary election|4047","CO-CON-15476|2019|Ordinary election|4048","CO-CON-15476|2015|Ordinary election|4049"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15476|2023|Ordinary election|4047","CO-CON-15476|2019|Ordinary election|4048","CO-CON-15476|2015|Ordinary election|4049"],"shares":[[0.14835739694496758,0.13412847876124712],[0.15154349859681945,0.14101964452759588],[0.21439957492029754,0.20483528161530287]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":93.67453176925059,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.39757271395689475,12.03180581711655,0,0,0,13.412847876124712,2.908558275789914,11.843481899979075,0,0,59.405733417032856],[0,14.101964452759589,15.154349859681945,12.090739008419083,12.160898035547241,10.921421889616465,5.144995322731525,7.249766136576239,7.998129092609916,0,15.177736202057998],[12.32731137088204,21.439957492029755,0,7.0138150903294365,9.829968119022316,20.483528161530288,10.626992561105208,0,8.342189160467587,0,9.936238044633368]],"volatility_latest":51.710711678842834,"volatility_previous":35.053467988297385,"volatility_mean":43.382089833570106,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15480","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Muzo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.359563469270533,14.903035413153457,7.719971229920883],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15480|2023|Ordinary election|4050","CO-CON-15480|2019|Ordinary election|4051","CO-CON-15480|2015|Ordinary election|4052"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15480|2023|Ordinary election|4050","CO-CON-15480|2019|Ordinary election|4051","CO-CON-15480|2015|Ordinary election|4052"],"shares":[[0.31686770055523644,0.17327206586253113],[0.342327150084317,0.19329679595278246],[0.28410453128746105,0.20690481898825222]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":30.706770857497766,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15491","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Nobsa","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.430775163902814,7.816235318573952,5.743049994279831],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15491|2023|Ordinary election|4053","CO-CON-15491|2019|Ordinary election|4054","CO-CON-15491|2015|Ordinary election|4055"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15491|2023|Ordinary election|4053","CO-CON-15491|2019|Ordinary election|4054","CO-CON-15491|2015|Ordinary election|4055"],"shares":[[0.20410721172387195,0.1397994600848438],[0.1992516370439663,0.12108928385822679],[0.19906189223201007,0.14163139228921176]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":66.11179653329071,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15494","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Nuevo Colon","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.4604904632152618,0.46069680391592627,2.3988005997001487],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15494|2023|Ordinary election|4056","CO-CON-15494|2019|Ordinary election|4057","CO-CON-15494|2015|Ordinary election|4058"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15494|2023|Ordinary election|4056","CO-CON-15494|2019|Ordinary election|4057","CO-CON-15494|2015|Ordinary election|4058"],"shares":[[0.27193460490463217,0.23732970027247954],[0.24445724157788656,0.23985027353872732],[0.21079460269865066,0.18680659670164917]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.72808310463024,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15500","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Oicata","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.9870410367170646,1.4678030303030294,0.11037527593818908],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15500|2023|Ordinary election|4059","CO-CON-15500|2019|Ordinary election|4060","CO-CON-15500|2015|Ordinary election|4061"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15500|2023|Ordinary election|4059","CO-CON-15500|2019|Ordinary election|4060","CO-CON-15500|2015|Ordinary election|4061"],"shares":[[0.16803455723542118,0.14816414686825052],[0.1690340909090909,0.1543560606060606],[0.17715231788079472,0.17604856512141281]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":91.78198470642516,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15507","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Otanche","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.052354962603596,3.9476757766876887,4.090447154471544],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15507|2023|Ordinary election|4062","CO-CON-15507|2019|Ordinary election|4063","CO-CON-15507|2015|Ordinary election|4064"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15507|2023|Ordinary election|4062","CO-CON-15507|2019|Ordinary election|4063","CO-CON-15507|2015|Ordinary election|4064"],"shares":[[0.1839498686072367,0.15342631898120074],[0.17285680915673907,0.1333800513898622],[0.23069105691056913,0.1897865853658537]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":82.87619786992191,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15511","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Pachavita","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.8472222222222214,12.734864300626302,8.749096167751265],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15511|2023|Ordinary election|4065","CO-CON-15511|2019|Ordinary election|4066","CO-CON-15511|2015|Ordinary election|4067"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15511|2023|Ordinary election|4065","CO-CON-15511|2019|Ordinary election|4066","CO-CON-15511|2015|Ordinary election|4067"],"shares":[[0.2576388888888889,0.22916666666666669],[0.3583855254001391,0.23103688239387613],[0.29718004338394793,0.2096890817064353]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":67.98148879851826,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15514","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Paez","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.0055865921787728,13.432835820895527,3.4218289085545734],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15514|2023|Ordinary election|4068","CO-CON-15514|2019|Ordinary election|4069","CO-CON-15514|2015|Ordinary election|4070"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15514|2023|Ordinary election|4068","CO-CON-15514|2019|Ordinary election|4069","CO-CON-15514|2015|Ordinary election|4070"],"shares":[[0.37821229050279326,0.36815642458100556],[0.379825012866701,0.24549665465774573],[0.2890855457227139,0.25486725663716814]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.1230720378431,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15516|2023|Ordinary election|4071","CO-CON-15516|2019|Ordinary election|4072","CO-CON-15516|2015|Ordinary election|4073"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15516|2023|Ordinary election|4071","CO-CON-15516|2019|Ordinary election|4072","CO-CON-15516|2015|Ordinary election|4073"],"shares":[[0.27973208451317794,0.21373339141799172],[0.21905659331522642,0.17321656227481846],[0.23563144329896907,0.18537371134020617]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":70.81150081744478,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15518|2023|Ordinary election|4074","CO-CON-15518|2019|Ordinary election|4075","CO-CON-15518|2015|Ordinary election|4076"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15518|2023|Ordinary election|4074","CO-CON-15518|2019|Ordinary election|4075","CO-CON-15518|2015|Ordinary election|4076"],"shares":[[0.2517482517482517,0.24825174825174826],[0.26849112426035504,0.13165680473372782],[0.2288,0.1576]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":74.86590102205489,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15522|2023|Ordinary election|4077","CO-CON-15522|2019|Ordinary election|4078","CO-CON-15522|2015|Ordinary election|4079"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15522|2023|Ordinary election|4077","CO-CON-15522|2019|Ordinary election|4078","CO-CON-15522|2015|Ordinary election|4079"],"shares":[[0.24285714285714285,0.23949579831932774],[0.2992392223161454,0.28402366863905326],[0.4530577088716623,0.27734711455641686]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.92373387132938,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15531|2023|Ordinary election|4080","CO-CON-15531|2019|Ordinary election|4081","CO-CON-15531|2015|Ordinary election|4082"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15531|2023|Ordinary election|4080","CO-CON-15531|2019|Ordinary election|4081","CO-CON-15531|2015|Ordinary election|4082"],"shares":[[0.19903320722992857,0.1662463219840269],[0.23521320495185694,0.16276937184777626],[0.2706566513205718,0.20329537194087716]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.92929549163266,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15533","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Paya","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.134138162307174,12.663398692810457,0.4854368932038824],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15533|2023|Ordinary election|4083","CO-CON-15533|2019|Ordinary election|4084","CO-CON-15533|2015|Ordinary election|4085"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15533|2023|Ordinary election|4083","CO-CON-15533|2019|Ordinary election|4084","CO-CON-15533|2015|Ordinary election|4085"],"shares":[[0.23943661971830985,0.2380952380952381],[0.3137254901960784,0.18709150326797386],[0.23009708737864076,0.22524271844660196]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.35976902726085,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15537","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Paz De Rio","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.715583000363239,4.559963520291834,22.931442080378247],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15537|2023|Ordinary election|4086","CO-CON-15537|2019|Ordinary election|4087","CO-CON-15537|2015|Ordinary election|4088"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15537|2023|Ordinary election|4086","CO-CON-15537|2019|Ordinary election|4087","CO-CON-15537|2015|Ordinary election|4088"],"shares":[[0.28369051943334544,0.17653468942971304],[0.33470132238942085,0.28910168718650253],[0.4393785883147585,0.21006416751097604]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":49.54758467828342,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[8.136578278241918,28.369051943334544,17.435524881946968,6.102433708681438,0,17.653468942971305,0,0,0,0,22.30294224482383],[13.132694938440492,28.91016871865025,0,33.470132238942085,0,24.48700410396717,0,0,0,0,0],[13.103681188787572,43.93785883147585,0,21.006416751097603,0,19.182708544410673,2.7693346842283013,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":39.73846712677079,"volatility_previous":17.7970247970539,"volatility_mean":28.767745961912347,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15542","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Pesca","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.705675318961724,4.6639231824417,1.2661251791686574],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15542|2023|Ordinary election|4089","CO-CON-15542|2019|Ordinary election|4090","CO-CON-15542|2015|Ordinary election|4091"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15542|2023|Ordinary election|4089","CO-CON-15542|2019|Ordinary election|4090","CO-CON-15542|2015|Ordinary election|4091"],"shares":[[0.17905851297844258,0.15200175978882535],[0.1680384087791495,0.12139917695473251],[0.18944099378881987,0.17677974199713328]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":84.25402667986795,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[10.382754069511659,7.105147382314122,6.291245050593929,15.200175978882534,9.128904531456225,11.328640563132424,17.905851297844258,0,0,0,22.65728112626485],[10.402377686328304,11.568358481938729,9.945130315500686,16.80384087791495,12.139917695473251,10.516689529035208,7.47599451303155,5.372656607224508,7.270233196159122,8.50480109739369,0],[17.67797419971333,5.709507883420927,10.989010989010989,11.036789297658864,5.972288580984233,14.26182513139035,6.163401815575728,0,0,9.245102723363592,18.944099378881987]],"volatility_latest":33.899088945174775,"volatility_previous":31.74901379410236,"volatility_mean":32.82405136963857,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15550","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Pisba","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.712586719524282,18.3411214953271,4.651162790697676],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15550|2023|Ordinary election|4092","CO-CON-15550|2019|Ordinary election|4093","CO-CON-15550|2015|Ordinary election|4094"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15550|2023|Ordinary election|4092","CO-CON-15550|2019|Ordinary election|4093","CO-CON-15550|2015|Ordinary election|4094"],"shares":[[0.29732408325074333,0.2001982160555005],[0.3189252336448598,0.13551401869158877],[0.23529411764705885,0.18878248974008208]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":41.02497620308767,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15572|2023|Ordinary election|4095","CO-CON-15572|2019|Ordinary election|4096","CO-CON-15572|2015|Ordinary election|4097"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15572|2023|Ordinary election|4095","CO-CON-15572|2019|Ordinary election|4096","CO-CON-15572|2015|Ordinary election|4097"],"shares":[[0.12168228372194377,0.11562431902375245],[0.15918030398679162,0.1522361967658913],[0.19680215182307234,0.15660490137477587]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":95.13113198499273,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15580","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Quipama","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.9565217391304337,3.423366834170853,1.7150857542877134],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15580|2023|Ordinary election|4098","CO-CON-15580|2019|Ordinary election|4099","CO-CON-15580|2015|Ordinary election|4100"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15580|2023|Ordinary election|4098","CO-CON-15580|2019|Ordinary election|4099","CO-CON-15580|2015|Ordinary election|4100"],"shares":[[0.2144927536231884,0.20492753623188406],[0.21231155778894473,0.17807788944723618],[0.23031151557577878,0.21316065803290166]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":91.13784165420856,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15599|2023|Ordinary election|4101","CO-CON-15599|2019|Ordinary election|4102","CO-CON-15599|2015|Ordinary election|4103"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15599|2023|Ordinary election|4101","CO-CON-15599|2019|Ordinary election|4102","CO-CON-15599|2015|Ordinary election|4103"],"shares":[[0.19540933435348126,0.18255547054322874],[0.29420809841107126,0.20690244319152573],[0.30389380530973453,0.24761061946902654]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.23383328195702,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15600","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Raquira","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.611856550378139,4.803022126281704,7.147201946472023],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15600|2023|Ordinary election|4104","CO-CON-15600|2019|Ordinary election|4105","CO-CON-15600|2015|Ordinary election|4106"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15600|2023|Ordinary election|4104","CO-CON-15600|2019|Ordinary election|4105","CO-CON-15600|2015|Ordinary election|4106"],"shares":[[0.25176872407904366,0.16565015857526227],[0.2776578521316784,0.22962763086886132],[0.33150851581508517,0.26003649635036497]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":63.38629618620701,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15621","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Rondon","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.2453450164293542,2.3148148148148167,13.564298297122722],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15621|2023|Ordinary election|4107","CO-CON-15621|2019|Ordinary election|4108","CO-CON-15621|2015|Ordinary election|4109"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15621|2023|Ordinary election|4107","CO-CON-15621|2019|Ordinary election|4108","CO-CON-15621|2015|Ordinary election|4109"],"shares":[[0.31599123767798465,0.29353778751369114],[0.30915637860082307,0.28600823045267487],[0.3857897827363476,0.2501467997651204]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":83.00959357992835,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15632|2023|Ordinary election|4110","CO-CON-15632|2019|Ordinary election|4111","CO-CON-15632|2015|Ordinary election|4112"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15632|2023|Ordinary election|4110","CO-CON-15632|2019|Ordinary election|4111","CO-CON-15632|2015|Ordinary election|4112"],"shares":[[0.27187132208709297,0.17967830521773245],[0.31577488217355143,0.271139451067369],[0.30536600496277916,0.24736352357320102]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":62.74665620378557,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15638|2023|Ordinary election|4113","CO-CON-15638|2019|Ordinary election|4114","CO-CON-15638|2015|Ordinary election|4115"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15638|2023|Ordinary election|4113","CO-CON-15638|2019|Ordinary election|4114","CO-CON-15638|2015|Ordinary election|4115"],"shares":[[0.17560832600410436,0.1621225447082967],[0.19837052780729722,0.15479985830676585],[0.1855513307984791,0.18098859315589355]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":89.19052830404873,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15646","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Samaca","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.6774317940807855,3.9767513000917702,2.717574396406512],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15646|2023|Ordinary election|4116","CO-CON-15646|2019|Ordinary election|4117","CO-CON-15646|2015|Ordinary election|4118"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15646|2023|Ordinary election|4116","CO-CON-15646|2019|Ordinary election|4117","CO-CON-15646|2015|Ordinary election|4118"],"shares":[[0.2048587679552685,0.18808445001446064],[0.1896604466197614,0.14989293361884368],[0.2331274564851207,0.2059517125210556]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.64379046941674,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15660|2023|Ordinary election|4119","CO-CON-15660|2019|Ordinary election|4120","CO-CON-15660|2015|Ordinary election|4121"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15660|2023|Ordinary election|4119","CO-CON-15660|2019|Ordinary election|4120","CO-CON-15660|2015|Ordinary election|4121"],"shares":[[0.2751363990646921,0.2540919719407638],[0.2945990180032733,0.24631751227495907],[0.27623318385650225,0.2600896860986547]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":85.637271115682,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15664|2023|Ordinary election|4122","CO-CON-15664|2019|Ordinary election|4123","CO-CON-15664|2015|Ordinary election|4124"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15664|2023|Ordinary election|4122","CO-CON-15664|2019|Ordinary election|4123","CO-CON-15664|2015|Ordinary election|4124"],"shares":[[0.27635619242579323,0.2517911975435005],[0.3017970401691332,0.254492600422833],[0.25217620680559216,0.2068055921920338]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":83.26630484268924,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15667","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"San Luis De Gaceno","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.575480925986309,9.523809523809522,0.34048348655090166],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15667|2023|Ordinary election|4125","CO-CON-15667|2019|Ordinary election|4126","CO-CON-15667|2015|Ordinary election|4127"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15667|2023|Ordinary election|4125","CO-CON-15667|2019|Ordinary election|4126","CO-CON-15667|2015|Ordinary election|4127"],"shares":[[0.35050537985001634,0.29475057059015325],[0.2934173669467787,0.1981792717086835],[0.24310520939734423,0.23970037453183524]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":68.81760119305133,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[29.475057059015324,10.727094880991197,7.466579719595696,0,0,35.05053798500163,8.183893055102706,0,0,0,9.096837300293446],[19.817927170868348,14.320728291316527,15.161064425770308,2.7661064425770308,14.950980392156863,3.641456582633053,29.34173669467787,0,0,0,0],[18.21586653047327,0,23.970037453183522,24.310520939734424,23.86789240721825,8.137555328566565,0,0,1.4981273408239701,0,0]],"volatility_latest":50.163048590809,"volatility_previous":45.26452562638948,"volatility_mean":47.713787108599234,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15673","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"San Mateo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.896445131375579,5.337399923751427,0.8410092110532617],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15673|2023|Ordinary election|4128","CO-CON-15673|2019|Ordinary election|4129","CO-CON-15673|2015|Ordinary election|4130"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15673|2023|Ordinary election|4128","CO-CON-15673|2019|Ordinary election|4129","CO-CON-15673|2015|Ordinary election|4130"],"shares":[[0.365533230293663,0.25656877897990726],[0.2756385817765917,0.2222645825390774],[0.2687224669603524,0.2603123748498198]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":58.884060114719496,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15676|2023|Ordinary election|4131","CO-CON-15676|2019|Ordinary election|4132","CO-CON-15676|2015|Ordinary election|4133"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15676|2023|Ordinary election|4131","CO-CON-15676|2019|Ordinary election|4132","CO-CON-15676|2015|Ordinary election|4133"],"shares":[[0.35863026376677465,0.3461360481258676],[0.43803418803418803,0.3894230769230769],[0.4833968426782798,0.3625476320087098]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":82.91760810758274,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15681","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"San Pablo De Borbur","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.628346843527389,12.257405515832481,2.6089449541284395],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15681|2023|Ordinary election|4134","CO-CON-15681|2019|Ordinary election|4135","CO-CON-15681|2015|Ordinary election|4136"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15681|2023|Ordinary election|4134","CO-CON-15681|2019|Ordinary election|4135","CO-CON-15681|2015|Ordinary election|4136"],"shares":[[0.2758535986244166,0.2495701301891427],[0.2982635342185904,0.17568947906026558],[0.23939220183486237,0.21330275229357798]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":72.4243787186049,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15686","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Santana","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.463027093094315,6.310876623376622,3.261358524516421],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15686|2023|Ordinary election|4137","CO-CON-15686|2019|Ordinary election|4138","CO-CON-15686|2015|Ordinary election|4139"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15686|2023|Ordinary election|4137","CO-CON-15686|2019|Ordinary election|4138","CO-CON-15686|2015|Ordinary election|4139"],"shares":[[0.25972703198207375,0.22509676105113058],[0.2315340909090909,0.16842532467532467],[0.21120107962213225,0.17858749437696805]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":78.51392452339392,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15690","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Santa Maria","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.334849863512282,9.71291866028708,3.7941787941787943],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15690|2023|Ordinary election|4140","CO-CON-15690|2019|Ordinary election|4141","CO-CON-15690|2015|Ordinary election|4142"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15690|2023|Ordinary election|4140","CO-CON-15690|2019|Ordinary election|4141","CO-CON-15690|2015|Ordinary election|4142"],"shares":[[0.3862602365787079,0.20291173794358508],[0.28086124401913876,0.18373205741626794],[0.2515592515592516,0.21361746361746362]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":28.528983021943134,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15693|2023|Ordinary election|4143","CO-CON-15693|2019|Ordinary election|4144","CO-CON-15693|2015|Ordinary election|4145"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15693|2023|Ordinary election|4143","CO-CON-15693|2019|Ordinary election|4144","CO-CON-15693|2015|Ordinary election|4145"],"shares":[[0.1814946619217082,0.1638628275638952],[0.1992619926199262,0.18608328940432262],[0.2653487930051321,0.1646074890705189]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.69657901358491,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15696|2023|Ordinary election|4146","CO-CON-15696|2019|Ordinary election|4147","CO-CON-15696|2015|Ordinary election|4148"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15696|2023|Ordinary election|4146","CO-CON-15696|2019|Ordinary election|4147","CO-CON-15696|2015|Ordinary election|4148"],"shares":[[0.3212757681835861,0.1411901983663944],[0.3487229862475442,0.19842829076620824],[0.2951923076923077,0.24903846153846154]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":21.12243242494978,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15720|2023|Ordinary election|4149","CO-CON-15720|2019|Ordinary election|4150","CO-CON-15720|2015|Ordinary election|4151"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15720|2023|Ordinary election|4149","CO-CON-15720|2019|Ordinary election|4150","CO-CON-15720|2015|Ordinary election|4151"],"shares":[[0.37392138063279007,0.32262703739213805],[0.41217672413793105,0.39601293103448276],[0.3600723763570567,0.23522316043425814]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.94466726614723,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15723|2023|Ordinary election|4152","CO-CON-15723|2019|Ordinary election|4153","CO-CON-15723|2015|Ordinary election|4154"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15723|2023|Ordinary election|4152","CO-CON-15723|2019|Ordinary election|4153","CO-CON-15723|2015|Ordinary election|4154"],"shares":[[0.5018181818181818,0.2736363636363636],[0.43725099601593626,0.33167330677290835],[0.4647599591419816,0.30439223697650664]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":7.690415050726629,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15740","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Siachoque","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.772785078423059,0.500980178610325,0.3242992819087327],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15740|2023|Ordinary election|4155","CO-CON-15740|2019|Ordinary election|4156","CO-CON-15740|2015|Ordinary election|4157"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15740|2023|Ordinary election|4155","CO-CON-15740|2019|Ordinary election|4156","CO-CON-15740|2015|Ordinary election|4157"],"shares":[[0.20156846121237812,0.16384061042814754],[0.13526464822478762,0.13025484643868437],[0.14315496872828354,0.1399119759091962]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.76802485586097,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[16.384061042814754,20.156846121237812,8.923272573124205,9.114031369224248,1.2717253073336159,12.102585841458245,14.010173802458668,1.5684612123781263,0,0,16.468842729970326],[7.7107384012197775,13.025484643868438,8.211718579830102,11.304726639076454,13.526464822478763,12.873012415595731,3.8553692006098887,4.661293835765629,6.490960575038118,0,18.340230886517098],[12.230715774843642,14.315496872828353,13.134120917303683,13.249942089413945,9.844799629372249,13.99119759091962,6.277507528376187,5.883715543201297,1.9921241602965023,0,9.08037989344452]],"volatility_latest":26.67104271410723,"volatility_previous":17.440352600920708,"volatility_mean":22.055697657513967,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15753","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Soata","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.614563476934807,12.124645892351275,9.694393847399311],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15753|2023|Ordinary election|4158","CO-CON-15753|2019|Ordinary election|4159","CO-CON-15753|2015|Ordinary election|4160"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15753|2023|Ordinary election|4158","CO-CON-15753|2019|Ordinary election|4159","CO-CON-15753|2015|Ordinary election|4160"],"shares":[[0.21883339687380862,0.15268776210446056],[0.27969782813975447,0.15845136921624176],[0.28718882817243474,0.1902448896984416]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":57.12214380696901,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15755","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Socota","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.923112986404126,0.4169732646553861,10.611183355006503],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15755|2023|Ordinary election|4161","CO-CON-15755|2019|Ordinary election|4162","CO-CON-15755|2015|Ordinary election|4163"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15755|2023|Ordinary election|4161","CO-CON-15755|2019|Ordinary election|4162","CO-CON-15755|2015|Ordinary election|4163"],"shares":[[0.23769338959212377,0.1584622597280825],[0.22835418199656612,0.22418444935001225],[0.2879063719115735,0.18179453836150844]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":70.29960946630129,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15757","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Socha","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.40452647769721,11.862036821253785,1.3312852022529427],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15757|2023|Ordinary election|4164","CO-CON-15757|2019|Ordinary election|4165","CO-CON-15757|2015|Ordinary election|4166"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15757|2023|Ordinary election|4164","CO-CON-15757|2019|Ordinary election|4165","CO-CON-15757|2015|Ordinary election|4166"],"shares":[[0.2922434629751703,0.1981981981981982],[0.2882777907247728,0.16965742251223492],[0.23271889400921658,0.21940604198668714]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":53.327722733901226,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15759","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Sogamoso","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.239468636783405,0.5104172343014923,2.3754957253034146],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15759|2023|Ordinary election|4167","CO-CON-15759|2019|Ordinary election|4168","CO-CON-15759|2015|Ordinary election|4169"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15759|2023|Ordinary election|4167","CO-CON-15759|2019|Ordinary election|4168","CO-CON-15759|2015|Ordinary election|4169"],"shares":[[0.14726149037436953,0.12486680400653549],[0.12945706864294407,0.12435289629992916],[0.16564698379800316,0.14189202654496902]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":91.32822037554584,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15761|2023|Ordinary election|4170","CO-CON-15761|2019|Ordinary election|4171","CO-CON-15761|2015|Ordinary election|4172"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15761|2023|Ordinary election|4170","CO-CON-15761|2019|Ordinary election|4171","CO-CON-15761|2015|Ordinary election|4172"],"shares":[[0.2491007194244604,0.24865107913669063],[0.3331578947368421,0.2789473684210526],[0.28096995255666846,0.25092250922509224]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":90.23115679972183,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15762","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Sora","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.68552981390049,2.8285465622280235,7.136060894386297],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15762|2023|Ordinary election|4173","CO-CON-15762|2019|Ordinary election|4174","CO-CON-15762|2015|Ordinary election|4175"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15762|2023|Ordinary election|4173","CO-CON-15762|2019|Ordinary election|4174","CO-CON-15762|2015|Ordinary election|4175"],"shares":[[0.36080516521078615,0.20394986707178123],[0.19147084421235858,0.16318537859007834],[0.3049476688867745,0.23358705994291154]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":45.132560267763346,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15763|2023|Ordinary election|4176","CO-CON-15763|2019|Ordinary election|4177","CO-CON-15763|2015|Ordinary election|4178"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15763|2023|Ordinary election|4176","CO-CON-15763|2019|Ordinary election|4177","CO-CON-15763|2015|Ordinary election|4178"],"shares":[[0.23394787031150666,0.12947658402203857],[0.2900453568870852,0.1685366435903557],[0.18861490031479536,0.17339979013641135]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":49.67155160973095,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15764|2023|Ordinary election|4179","CO-CON-15764|2019|Ordinary election|4180","CO-CON-15764|2015|Ordinary election|4181"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15764|2023|Ordinary election|4179","CO-CON-15764|2019|Ordinary election|4180","CO-CON-15764|2015|Ordinary election|4181"],"shares":[[0.16878048780487806,0.12546341463414634],[0.19078651685393258,0.18853932584269664],[0.23666245259165614,0.16965865992414664]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":83.31760976371963,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15774|2023|Ordinary election|4182","CO-CON-15774|2019|Ordinary election|4183","CO-CON-15774|2015|Ordinary election|4184"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15774|2023|Ordinary election|4182","CO-CON-15774|2019|Ordinary election|4183","CO-CON-15774|2015|Ordinary election|4184"],"shares":[[0.379825012866701,0.32527020072053525],[0.32918326693227096,0.3112549800796813],[0.6079271558650241,0.20996250669523298]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":61.04608086977227,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15776|2023|Ordinary election|4185","CO-CON-15776|2019|Ordinary election|4186","CO-CON-15776|2015|Ordinary election|4187"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15776|2023|Ordinary election|4185","CO-CON-15776|2019|Ordinary election|4186","CO-CON-15776|2015|Ordinary election|4187"],"shares":[[0.2139763779527559,0.17401574803149608],[0.25568678915135606,0.18416447944007],[0.227294921875,0.185302734375]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.18385519192915,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15778|2023|Ordinary election|4188","CO-CON-15778|2019|Ordinary election|4189","CO-CON-15778|2015|Ordinary election|4190"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15778|2023|Ordinary election|4188","CO-CON-15778|2019|Ordinary election|4189","CO-CON-15778|2015|Ordinary election|4190"],"shares":[[0.24063989108236897,0.1916269571136828],[0.28858267716535435,0.22165354330708664],[0.32247687977482914,0.25211097708082025]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":71.73845459595356,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15790|2023|Ordinary election|4191","CO-CON-15790|2019|Ordinary election|4192","CO-CON-15790|2015|Ordinary election|4193"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15790|2023|Ordinary election|4191","CO-CON-15790|2019|Ordinary election|4192","CO-CON-15790|2015|Ordinary election|4193"],"shares":[[0.34652897303499713,0.18674698795180725],[0.3751482799525504,0.21352313167259787],[0.19878048780487806,0.17195121951219514]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":26.480168818416004,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15798","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Tenza","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.8745247148288975,3.303787268331991,4.502271788517142],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15798|2023|Ordinary election|4194","CO-CON-15798|2019|Ordinary election|4195","CO-CON-15798|2015|Ordinary election|4196"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15798|2023|Ordinary election|4194","CO-CON-15798|2019|Ordinary election|4195","CO-CON-15798|2015|Ordinary election|4196"],"shares":[[0.29429657794676806,0.2855513307984791],[0.23086220789685735,0.19782433521353746],[0.2738537794299876,0.2288310615448162]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":90.16960905875675,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[21.634980988593156,0,29.429657794676807,0,0,28.55513307984791,7.642585551330798,0.532319391634981,0,0,12.20532319391635],[11.804995970991136,0,12.892828364222401,0.28203062046736505,19.782433521353745,23.086220789685736,0.8460918614020951,12.771958098307817,0,0,18.5334407735697],[20.115654688145394,0,16.191656340355227,22.88310615448162,27.385377942998762,3.841387856257745,9.582817017761256,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":38.6322204281473,"volatility_previous":50.550231805305515,"volatility_mean":44.5912261167264,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15804","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Tibana","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.282781053059566,6.8951107396573335,11.368470810683053],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15804|2023|Ordinary election|4197","CO-CON-15804|2019|Ordinary election|4198","CO-CON-15804|2015|Ordinary election|4199"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15804|2023|Ordinary election|4197","CO-CON-15804|2019|Ordinary election|4198","CO-CON-15804|2015|Ordinary election|4199"],"shares":[[0.3146981093718236,0.2018702988412279],[0.3299206017551191,0.2609694943585458],[0.4022689671472465,0.288584259040416]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":50.124755325993775,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15806","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Tibasosa","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.2439530062197672,1.1092985318107687,14.617823177175062],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15806|2023|Ordinary election|4200","CO-CON-15806|2019|Ordinary election|4201","CO-CON-15806|2015|Ordinary election|4202"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15806|2023|Ordinary election|4200","CO-CON-15806|2019|Ordinary election|4201","CO-CON-15806|2015|Ordinary election|4202"],"shares":[[0.16088458880442297,0.1484450587422253],[0.17569331158238174,0.16460032626427407],[0.34889045438534694,0.20271222261359634]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.29528159503701,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15808","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Tinjaca","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.136400986031223,1.21155638397018,5.627009646302252],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15808|2023|Ordinary election|4203","CO-CON-15808|2019|Ordinary election|4204","CO-CON-15808|2015|Ordinary election|4205"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15808|2023|Ordinary election|4203","CO-CON-15808|2019|Ordinary election|4204","CO-CON-15808|2015|Ordinary election|4205"],"shares":[[0.2830731306491372,0.26170912078882497],[0.18126747437092267,0.16915191053122086],[0.2979635584137192,0.2416934619506967]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":88.95995764279994,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15810|2023|Ordinary election|4206","CO-CON-15810|2019|Ordinary election|4207","CO-CON-15810|2015|Ordinary election|4208"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15810|2023|Ordinary election|4206","CO-CON-15810|2019|Ordinary election|4207","CO-CON-15810|2015|Ordinary election|4208"],"shares":[[0.19324373410824555,0.1899745731928805],[0.18221003134796238,0.16105015673981193],[0.14401440144014402,0.14176417641764177]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":95.7327592830428,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15814","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Toca","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.88963210702341,2.7274358514265202,2.648069537093189],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15814|2023|Ordinary election|4209","CO-CON-15814|2019|Ordinary election|4210","CO-CON-15814|2015|Ordinary election|4211"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15814|2023|Ordinary election|4209","CO-CON-15814|2019|Ordinary election|4210","CO-CON-15814|2015|Ordinary election|4211"],"shares":[[0.3489966555183946,0.18010033444816054],[0.21891261439081283,0.19163825587654762],[0.20941985041439257,0.18293915504346067]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":43.9159151332434,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15816|2023|Ordinary election|4212","CO-CON-15816|2019|Ordinary election|4213","CO-CON-15816|2015|Ordinary election|4214"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15816|2023|Ordinary election|4212","CO-CON-15816|2019|Ordinary election|4213","CO-CON-15816|2015|Ordinary election|4214"],"shares":[[0.3090145148968679,0.29411764705882354],[0.3054044250997461,0.2292346753717809],[0.39044289044289043,0.2843822843822844]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":78.80244688636162,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15820|2023|Ordinary election|4215","CO-CON-15820|2019|Ordinary election|4216","CO-CON-15820|2015|Ordinary election|4217"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15820|2023|Ordinary election|4215","CO-CON-15820|2019|Ordinary election|4216","CO-CON-15820|2015|Ordinary election|4217"],"shares":[[0.1889483065953654,0.12941176470588237],[0.25867908552074514,0.170194750211685],[0.310724106324473,0.16361136571952337]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":61.510750106548585,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15822|2023|Ordinary election|4218","CO-CON-15822|2019|Ordinary election|4219","CO-CON-15822|2015|Ordinary election|4220"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15822|2023|Ordinary election|4218","CO-CON-15822|2019|Ordinary election|4219","CO-CON-15822|2015|Ordinary election|4220"],"shares":[[0.1279373368146214,0.12155497534087611],[0.24661508704061894,0.19729206963249518],[0.18434966513923157,0.1723651744800846]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":90.0876144137005,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15832","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Tunungua","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.672699849170439,17.69633507853403,0.6362672322375396],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15832|2023|Ordinary election|4221","CO-CON-15832|2019|Ordinary election|4222","CO-CON-15832|2015|Ordinary election|4223"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15832|2023|Ordinary election|4221","CO-CON-15832|2019|Ordinary election|4222","CO-CON-15832|2015|Ordinary election|4223"],"shares":[[0.2812971342383107,0.1945701357466063],[0.4052356020942408,0.22827225130890053],[0.24284199363732767,0.23647932131495228]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":47.119264218568865,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15835","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Turmeque","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.19390581717451738,18.914473684210524,10.093348891481913],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15835|2023|Ordinary election|4224","CO-CON-15835|2019|Ordinary election|4225","CO-CON-15835|2015|Ordinary election|4226"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15835|2023|Ordinary election|4224","CO-CON-15835|2019|Ordinary election|4225","CO-CON-15835|2015|Ordinary election|4226"],"shares":[[0.28282548476454294,0.2808864265927978],[0.38130482456140347,0.19216008771929827],[0.27975495915986,0.17882147024504086]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":65.99989757641971,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,28.088642659279778,0,0,0,28.282548476454295,0,14.404432132963988,0,0,29.224376731301938],[0,38.13048245614035,10.307017543859649,0,0,19.216008771929825,0.38377192982456143,5.12609649122807,4.495614035087719,0,22.341008771929825],[0,27.975495915986,13.943990665110851,10.58926487747958,0,17.882147024504086,0,14.644107351225204,14.964994165694282,0,0]],"volatility_latest":25.2282433056325,"volatility_previous":34.21362898933448,"volatility_mean":29.720936147483492,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15837","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Tuta","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.010825858335913,3.9651341650999825,11.788769059129788],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15837|2023|Ordinary election|4227","CO-CON-15837|2019|Ordinary election|4228","CO-CON-15837|2015|Ordinary election|4229"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15837|2023|Ordinary election|4227","CO-CON-15837|2019|Ordinary election|4228","CO-CON-15837|2015|Ordinary election|4229"],"shares":[[0.22022888957624498,0.17012063099288585],[0.19569304392411552,0.1560417022731157],[0.30401636296020823,0.18612867236891037]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":73.12543664777739,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[9.140117537890504,22.0228889576245,6.108877203835447,17.012063099288586,0,16.563563253943705,15.187132694092174,2.474481905351067,0,0,11.490875347974018],[15.60417022731157,19.569304392411553,13.279781233977097,12.95505041873184,0,14.561613399418903,12.425226457015894,10.169201845838318,0,0,1.4356520252948215],[18.612867236891038,30.401636296020826,14.48493863889922,12.346597248047601,2.993677947192265,7.512086277426553,10.766084046113797,0,0.6693938267013759,0,2.2127184827073263]],"volatility_latest":21.32967666004997,"volatility_previous":19.486324549417006,"volatility_mean":20.408000604733488,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15839","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Tutaza","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.366347177848777,0.4548408057179998,0.6177076183939612],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15839|2023|Ordinary election|4230","CO-CON-15839|2019|Ordinary election|4231","CO-CON-15839|2015|Ordinary election|4232"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15839|2023|Ordinary election|4230","CO-CON-15839|2019|Ordinary election|4231","CO-CON-15839|2015|Ordinary election|4232"],"shares":[[0.2476038338658147,0.20394036208732694],[0.22612085769980506,0.22157244964262507],[0.19560741249142072,0.1894303363074811]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":85.9098434486797,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15842","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Umbita","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.1974694984184389,4.018853882411314,7.919213393568963],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15842|2023|Ordinary election|4233","CO-CON-15842|2019|Ordinary election|4234","CO-CON-15842|2015|Ordinary election|4235"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15842|2023|Ordinary election|4233","CO-CON-15842|2019|Ordinary election|4234","CO-CON-15842|2015|Ordinary election|4235"],"shares":[[0.23994577496610936,0.22797107998192498],[0.26841974696105186,0.22823120813693873],[0.264416688812118,0.18522455487642836]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.41970398434323,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15861","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Ventaquemada","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.943069306930692,9.966321566670825,4.83032293377121],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15861|2023|Ordinary election|4236","CO-CON-15861|2019|Ordinary election|4237","CO-CON-15861|2015|Ordinary election|4238"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15861|2023|Ordinary election|4236","CO-CON-15861|2019|Ordinary election|4237","CO-CON-15861|2015|Ordinary election|4238"],"shares":[[0.18762376237623762,0.1681930693069307],[0.2514656355245104,0.15180241985780218],[0.2640941434044882,0.2157909140667761]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":76.80614826231609,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-15879","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Viracacha","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.733262486716264,9.572192513368982,12.795941375422775],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15879|2023|Ordinary election|4239","CO-CON-15879|2019|Ordinary election|4240","CO-CON-15879|2015|Ordinary election|4241"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15879|2023|Ordinary election|4239","CO-CON-15879|2019|Ordinary election|4240","CO-CON-15879|2015|Ordinary election|4241"],"shares":[[0.51009564293305,0.4027630180658873],[0.37486631016042776,0.27914438502673794],[0.3861330326944758,0.25817361894024804]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":47.043953082086354,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-15897|2023|Ordinary election|4242","CO-CON-15897|2019|Ordinary election|4243","CO-CON-15897|2015|Ordinary election|4244"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-15897|2023|Ordinary election|4242","CO-CON-15897|2019|Ordinary election|4243","CO-CON-15897|2015|Ordinary election|4244"],"shares":[[0.33728813559322035,0.24548022598870056],[0.3507080445917445,0.22205483579391383],[0.32051730164278225,0.28626354421530936]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":51.44695792759582,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-17001|2023|Ordinary election|4245","CO-CON-17001|2019|Ordinary election|4246","CO-CON-17001|2015|Ordinary election|4247"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-17001|2023|Ordinary election|4245","CO-CON-17001|2019|Ordinary election|4246","CO-CON-17001|2015|Ordinary election|4247"],"shares":[[0.15698239414400203,0.14552912223133718],[0.21548199920875644,0.14357930960858561],[0.21475011403323646,0.17337136710532586]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":83.70967763977939,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-17013|2023|Ordinary election|4248","CO-CON-17013|2019|Ordinary election|4249","CO-CON-17013|2015|Ordinary election|4250"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-17013|2023|Ordinary election|4248","CO-CON-17013|2019|Ordinary election|4249","CO-CON-17013|2015|Ordinary election|4250"],"shares":[[0.17339737306410508,0.16810429327582826],[0.335715765485809,0.1953594365030039],[0.3525601480567551,0.16255397902529303]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":67.85831826452309,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-17042|2023|Ordinary election|4251","CO-CON-17042|2019|Ordinary election|4252","CO-CON-17042|2015|Ordinary election|4253"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-17042|2023|Ordinary election|4251","CO-CON-17042|2019|Ordinary election|4252","CO-CON-17042|2015|Ordinary election|4253"],"shares":[[0.29065597975110735,0.23461998171974968],[0.25337208435799985,0.20500782472613457],[0.2771850636027903,0.22185747503761455]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":73.16818221755412,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-17050","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Aranzazu","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.486956521739135,11.729295877416998,33.45981372887202],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-17050|2023|Ordinary election|4254","CO-CON-17050|2019|Ordinary election|4255","CO-CON-17050|2015|Ordinary election|4256"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-17050|2023|Ordinary election|4254","CO-CON-17050|2019|Ordinary election|4255","CO-CON-17050|2015|Ordinary election|4256"],"shares":[[0.36695652173913046,0.26208695652173913],[0.35643925574607804,0.2391462969719081],[0.51879958606416,0.18420144877543979]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":34.215279754221086,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[36.69565217391305,0,15.252173913043478,0,7.947826086956522,0,0,1.6347826086956523,0,0,38.469565217391306],[35.643925574607806,16.581539584093395,23.914629697190808,2.608537030280919,12.039401678219628,5.344764684421744,0,0.5290040131338928,0,0,3.338197738051806],[51.879958606416004,5.657123145912384,18.42014487754398,6.829941359089341,9.192825112107624,0,0,0,0,0,8.020006898930665]],"volatility_latest":37.288872674206495,"volatility_previous":25.13924652149548,"volatility_mean":31.214059597850987,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-17088","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Belalcazar","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.831073653352874,2.216014897579143,15.342264635712976],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-17088|2023|Ordinary election|4257","CO-CON-17088|2019|Ordinary election|4258","CO-CON-17088|2015|Ordinary election|4259"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-17088|2023|Ordinary election|4257","CO-CON-17088|2019|Ordinary election|4258","CO-CON-17088|2015|Ordinary election|4259"],"shares":[[0.31495053133015755,0.22663979479662882],[0.2910614525139665,0.26890130353817504],[0.3474031932464673,0.19398054688933752]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":62.51162437571618,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-17174","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Chinchina","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.088806580817433,7.440489285871429,3.4845991065130484],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-17174|2023|Ordinary election|4260","CO-CON-17174|2019|Ordinary election|4261","CO-CON-17174|2015|Ordinary election|4262"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-17174|2023|Ordinary election|4260","CO-CON-17174|2019|Ordinary election|4261","CO-CON-17174|2015|Ordinary election|4262"],"shares":[[0.18769111503510058,0.16680304922692624],[0.2567870814449773,0.18238218858626304],[0.2736891605925229,0.23884316952739243]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.83054677548404,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-17272","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Filadelfia","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.742284786139688,9.502951818701199,1.557917888563047],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-17272|2023|Ordinary election|4263","CO-CON-17272|2019|Ordinary election|4264","CO-CON-17272|2015|Ordinary election|4265"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-17272|2023|Ordinary election|4263","CO-CON-17272|2019|Ordinary election|4264","CO-CON-17272|2015|Ordinary election|4265"],"shares":[[0.2806352643927089,0.20321241653131203],[0.35478956389259186,0.2597600457055799],[0.3559384164222874,0.3403592375366569]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":61.73975896924762,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-17380","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"La Dorada","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.202999464381362,4.512021078054673,0.16174831961468072],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-17380|2023|Ordinary election|4266","CO-CON-17380|2019|Ordinary election|4267","CO-CON-17380|2015|Ordinary election|4268"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-17380|2023|Ordinary election|4266","CO-CON-17380|2019|Ordinary election|4267","CO-CON-17380|2015|Ordinary election|4268"],"shares":[[0.16843420817711124,0.13640421353329762],[0.18736048596626048,0.14224027518571375],[0.2818374609108228,0.28021997771467594]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":83.54209582996657,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-17388","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"La Merced","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[29.419889502762434,6.555458004097158,0.1439263097294159],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-17388|2023|Ordinary election|4269","CO-CON-17388|2019|Ordinary election|4270","CO-CON-17388|2015|Ordinary election|4271"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-17388|2023|Ordinary election|4269","CO-CON-17388|2019|Ordinary election|4270","CO-CON-17388|2015|Ordinary election|4271"],"shares":[[0.48950276243093926,0.1953038674033149],[0.32513901082821184,0.25958443078724025],[0.2725964306275187,0.27115716753022456]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":1.8351813307022624,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-17433|2023|Ordinary election|4272","CO-CON-17433|2019|Ordinary election|4273","CO-CON-17433|2015|Ordinary election|4274"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-17433|2023|Ordinary election|4272","CO-CON-17433|2019|Ordinary election|4273","CO-CON-17433|2015|Ordinary election|4274"],"shares":[[0.2588862559241706,0.1938388625592417],[0.26151914626490896,0.23678593848085375],[0.35632936248200026,0.3102500327267967]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":74.47183433515288,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-17442|2023|Ordinary election|4275","CO-CON-17442|2019|Ordinary election|4276","CO-CON-17442|2015|Ordinary election|4277"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-17442|2023|Ordinary election|4275","CO-CON-17442|2019|Ordinary election|4276","CO-CON-17442|2015|Ordinary election|4277"],"shares":[[0.30041511907362906,0.18199694122787854],[0.3659520807061791,0.2721311475409836],[0.28,0.24494117647058822]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":48.648465495024936,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-17444|2023|Ordinary election|4278","CO-CON-17444|2019|Ordinary election|4279","CO-CON-17444|2015|Ordinary election|4280"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-17444|2023|Ordinary election|4278","CO-CON-17444|2019|Ordinary election|4279","CO-CON-17444|2015|Ordinary election|4280"],"shares":[[0.22068758444677974,0.2040234199069209],[0.21186719263642342,0.1883629191321499],[0.3379675604104601,0.21830519695465078]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":85.49199143961084,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-17446|2023|Ordinary election|4281","CO-CON-17446|2019|Ordinary election|4282","CO-CON-17446|2015|Ordinary election|4283"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-17446|2023|Ordinary election|4281","CO-CON-17446|2019|Ordinary election|4282","CO-CON-17446|2015|Ordinary election|4283"],"shares":[[0.2,0.1950354609929078],[0.30915254237288137,0.1938983050847458],[0.32295719844357973,0.2885862516212711]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":79.50395536353658,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-17486|2023|Ordinary election|4284","CO-CON-17486|2019|Ordinary election|4285","CO-CON-17486|2015|Ordinary election|4286"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-17486|2023|Ordinary election|4284","CO-CON-17486|2019|Ordinary election|4285","CO-CON-17486|2015|Ordinary election|4286"],"shares":[[0.20685990338164253,0.16309178743961353],[0.2547389761784085,0.23122149011657375],[0.35908206126421477,0.21544923675852887]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":76.1603010828318,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-17495|2023|Ordinary election|4287","CO-CON-17495|2019|Ordinary election|4288","CO-CON-17495|2015|Ordinary election|4289"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-17495|2023|Ordinary election|4287","CO-CON-17495|2019|Ordinary election|4288","CO-CON-17495|2015|Ordinary election|4289"],"shares":[[0.39826175869120656,0.2285276073619632],[0.42235494880546076,0.2846985210466439],[0.49278775390050045,0.2425669708566382]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":15.920251285211362,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-17513|2023|Ordinary election|4290","CO-CON-17513|2019|Ordinary election|4291","CO-CON-17513|2015|Ordinary election|4292"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-17513|2023|Ordinary election|4290","CO-CON-17513|2019|Ordinary election|4291","CO-CON-17513|2015|Ordinary election|4292"],"shares":[[0.5511661807580175,0.24620991253644317],[0.4808535515931014,0.32358959368605666],[0.6400723803257116,0.1538081921368646]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-17524","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Palestina","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.26156629620057,2.4606299212598444,16.775629433857283],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-17524|2023|Ordinary election|4293","CO-CON-17524|2019|Ordinary election|4294","CO-CON-17524|2015|Ordinary election|4295"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-17524|2023|Ordinary election|4293","CO-CON-17524|2019|Ordinary election|4294","CO-CON-17524|2015|Ordinary election|4295"],"shares":[[0.25394158697337815,0.23132592401137245],[0.3458942632170979,0.32128796400449944],[0.4648768952566421,0.29712060091806924]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":81.13654151257987,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,23.132592401137245,19.397777203411735,0.43939002326182475,3.9803566813130007,7.7539415869733785,0,0,0,0,45.29594210390282],[2.4887514060742406,34.58942632170979,32.12879640044994,0.9139482564679415,0,7.719347581552306,4.977502812148481,0,0,0,17.1822272215973],[6.37084434552789,29.712060091806926,46.48768952566421,3.686187230491028,6.398664626512728,0,0.6398664626512728,0.556405619696759,0,0,6.1482820976491865]],"volatility_latest":32.12866556903959,"volatility_previous":27.96829528490049,"volatility_mean":30.048480426970038,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-17541","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Pensilvania","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.560298826040555,0.11399908800729719,23.050969996385106],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-17541|2023|Ordinary election|4296","CO-CON-17541|2019|Ordinary election|4297","CO-CON-17541|2015|Ordinary election|4298"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-17541|2023|Ordinary election|4296","CO-CON-17541|2019|Ordinary election|4297","CO-CON-17541|2015|Ordinary election|4298"],"shares":[[0.26520811099252933,0.2096051227321238],[0.31486548107615137,0.3137254901960784],[0.4290878419086637,0.19857814194481263]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":71.62261989167484,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[13.27641408751334,9.69050160085379,0,0,26.520811099252935,0,0,0,0,0,50.51227321237993],[8.960328317373461,19.02644778841769,0,0,31.372549019607842,0.5585955312357501,6.76014591883265,0,0,0,33.3219334245326],[8.543197975659718,3.80768767321364,15.857332208699843,19.857814194481264,42.90878419086637,4.988552837691288,0,4.036630919387878,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":21.506425557987207,"volatility_previous":55.71796980028305,"volatility_mean":38.61219767913513,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-17614","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Riosucio","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.46667398101926,7.794294897549218,6.860729358294559],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-17614|2023|Ordinary election|4299","CO-CON-17614|2019|Ordinary election|4300","CO-CON-17614|2015|Ordinary election|4301"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-17614|2023|Ordinary election|4299","CO-CON-17614|2019|Ordinary election|4300","CO-CON-17614|2015|Ordinary election|4301"],"shares":[[0.33644193318338916,0.16177519337319654],[0.28118722378465244,0.2032442748091603],[0.29996753598095444,0.23136024239800887]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":32.47817103147111,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-17616","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Risaralda","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.7721614485099977,14.698162729658794,5.503057254030015],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-17616|2023|Ordinary election|4302","CO-CON-17616|2019|Ordinary election|4303","CO-CON-17616|2015|Ordinary election|4304"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-17616|2023|Ordinary election|4302","CO-CON-17616|2019|Ordinary election|4303","CO-CON-17616|2015|Ordinary election|4304"],"shares":[[0.34798189362504717,0.3102602791399472],[0.32845894263217096,0.18147731533558303],[0.3468593663146192,0.2918287937743191]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":63.88474293296681,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-17653","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Salamina","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.5978524862584678,2.324643912926632,5.59759916492693],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-17653|2023|Ordinary election|4305","CO-CON-17653|2019|Ordinary election|4306","CO-CON-17653|2015|Ordinary election|4307"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-17653|2023|Ordinary election|4305","CO-CON-17653|2019|Ordinary election|4306","CO-CON-17653|2015|Ordinary election|4307"],"shares":[[0.161702671609357,0.14572414674677234],[0.29602257457672665,0.2727761354474604],[0.2673538622129436,0.21137787056367432]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":88.92067708937118,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-17662","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Samana","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.07060010085728763,22.102396514161217,20.742793791574275],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-17662|2023|Ordinary election|4308","CO-CON-17662|2019|Ordinary election|4309","CO-CON-17662|2015|Ordinary election|4310"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-17662|2023|Ordinary election|4308","CO-CON-17662|2019|Ordinary election|4309","CO-CON-17662|2015|Ordinary election|4310"],"shares":[[0.2139183055975794,0.21321230458900653],[0.3525054466230937,0.13148148148148148],[0.41308203991130815,0.2056541019955654]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":56.263208030399184,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-17665|2023|Ordinary election|4311","CO-CON-17665|2019|Ordinary election|4312","CO-CON-17665|2015|Ordinary election|4313"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-17665|2023|Ordinary election|4311","CO-CON-17665|2019|Ordinary election|4312","CO-CON-17665|2015|Ordinary election|4313"],"shares":[[0.34350909651557204,0.22263336416897936],[0.35,0.2339041095890411],[0.33441558441558444,0.24383116883116884]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":41.79367595515758,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-17777","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Supia","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.684857801691008,1.47329650092081,8.575512148642211],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-17777|2023|Ordinary election|4314","CO-CON-17777|2019|Ordinary election|4315","CO-CON-17777|2015|Ordinary election|4316"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-17777|2023|Ordinary election|4314","CO-CON-17777|2019|Ordinary election|4315","CO-CON-17777|2015|Ordinary election|4316"],"shares":[[0.24408574600734478,0.1472371679904347],[0.21494343593791107,0.20021047092870298],[0.2700333492139114,0.18427822772748928]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":64.44772576922466,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-17867|2023|Ordinary election|4317","CO-CON-17867|2019|Ordinary election|4318","CO-CON-17867|2015|Ordinary election|4319"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-17867|2023|Ordinary election|4317","CO-CON-17867|2019|Ordinary election|4318","CO-CON-17867|2015|Ordinary election|4319"],"shares":[[0.21326530612244898,0.17020408163265305],[0.29327031285167676,0.18050866531622778],[0.2539130434782609,0.2491304347826087]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":69.92825508796126,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-17873","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Villamaria","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.7309512155327145,14.115892243717232,8.07961375504976],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-17873|2023|Ordinary election|4320","CO-CON-17873|2019|Ordinary election|4321","CO-CON-17873|2015|Ordinary election|4322"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-17873|2023|Ordinary election|4320","CO-CON-17873|2019|Ordinary election|4321","CO-CON-17873|2015|Ordinary election|4322"],"shares":[[0.17857725566976668,0.12126774351443954],[0.295832580003616,0.1546736575664437],[0.25889250172430783,0.17809636417381022]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":57.593501110301126,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-17877","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Viterbo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[32.21645663454411,13.125000000000004,5.155942680528238],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-17877|2023|Ordinary election|4323","CO-CON-17877|2019|Ordinary election|4324","CO-CON-17877|2015|Ordinary election|4325"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-17877|2023|Ordinary election|4323","CO-CON-17877|2019|Ordinary election|4324","CO-CON-17877|2015|Ordinary election|4325"],"shares":[[0.43484062268346924,0.11267605633802816],[0.3523809523809524,0.22113095238095237],[0.3522056757516156,0.30064624894633324]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[43.484062268346925,0,9.458858413639733,0,0,0,4.684951816160119,0,0,0,42.37212750185322],[35.23809523809524,0,22.113095238095237,0,4.449404761904762,5.148809523809524,13.601190476190476,0,0,0,19.449404761904763],[30.064624894633322,0.7726889575723518,35.22056757516156,2.4445068839561674,11.477943242483844,2.514751334644563,3.273391402079236,0,1.9106490587243607,0,12.32087665074459]],"volatility_latest":31.168689770200146,"volatility_previous":25.263855717898288,"volatility_mean":28.216272744049217,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-18001","country":"Colombia","region":"Caqueta","name":"Florencia","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.2130555296022916,2.409861118108383,0.088573959255978],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-18001|2023|Ordinary election|4326","CO-CON-18001|2019|Ordinary election|4327","CO-CON-18001|2015|Ordinary election|4328"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-18001|2023|Ordinary election|4326","CO-CON-18001|2019|Ordinary election|4327","CO-CON-18001|2015|Ordinary election|4328"],"shares":[[0.15420910025226572,0.1420785449562428],[0.18188993568105866,0.15779132449997482],[0.13475895229659623,0.13387321270403643]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":92.70175475440257,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-18029","country":"Colombia","region":"Caqueta","name":"Albania","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.076142131979697,4.160688665710186,15.636077195746356],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-18029|2023|Ordinary election|4329","CO-CON-18029|2019|Ordinary election|4330","CO-CON-18029|2015|Ordinary election|4331"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-18029|2023|Ordinary election|4329","CO-CON-18029|2019|Ordinary election|4330","CO-CON-18029|2015|Ordinary election|4331"],"shares":[[0.31281725888324874,0.2620558375634518],[0.2564562410329986,0.2148493543758967],[0.33910988578180384,0.1827491138243403]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":70.71250200762245,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-18094","country":"Colombia","region":"Caqueta","name":"Belen De Los Andaquies","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.785464278361125,5.776330076004346,0.5542168674698793],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-18094|2023|Ordinary election|4332","CO-CON-18094|2019|Ordinary election|4333","CO-CON-18094|2015|Ordinary election|4334"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-18094|2023|Ordinary election|4332","CO-CON-18094|2019|Ordinary election|4333","CO-CON-18094|2015|Ordinary election|4334"],"shares":[[0.25097796994029237,0.1931233271566811],[0.26666666666666666,0.20890336590662323],[0.22867469879518074,0.22313253012048193]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":73.70200361717517,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-18150|2023|Ordinary election|4335","CO-CON-18150|2019|Ordinary election|4336","CO-CON-18150|2015|Ordinary election|4337"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-18150|2023|Ordinary election|4335","CO-CON-18150|2019|Ordinary election|4336","CO-CON-18150|2015|Ordinary election|4337"],"shares":[[0.1951522091802653,0.11833190189903617],[0.161511640985266,0.15476324372961422],[0.16071216617210685,0.15406528189910978]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.60930401363363,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-18205","country":"Colombia","region":"Caqueta","name":"Curillo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.208575966119639,9.195717814987646,4.203102961918194],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-18205|2023|Ordinary election|4338","CO-CON-18205|2019|Ordinary election|4339","CO-CON-18205|2015|Ordinary election|4340"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-18205|2023|Ordinary election|4338","CO-CON-18205|2019|Ordinary election|4339","CO-CON-18205|2015|Ordinary election|4340"],"shares":[[0.22419269454737958,0.18210693488618318],[0.2561076036233873,0.16415042547351086],[0.2157968970380818,0.17376586741889988]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":71.47914389820052,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-18247|2023|Ordinary election|4341","CO-CON-18247|2019|Ordinary election|4342","CO-CON-18247|2015|Ordinary election|4343"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-18247|2023|Ordinary election|4341","CO-CON-18247|2019|Ordinary election|4342","CO-CON-18247|2015|Ordinary election|4343"],"shares":[[0.22343358395989973,0.1951127819548872],[0.21448467966573814,0.17482424724764556],[0.2493480150680962,0.1579252390611417]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.98355573543463,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-18256","country":"Colombia","region":"Caqueta","name":"El Paujil","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.439578264395781,21.795738924585727,4.88245931283906],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-18256|2023|Ordinary election|4344","CO-CON-18256|2019|Ordinary election|4345","CO-CON-18256|2015|Ordinary election|4346"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-18256|2023|Ordinary election|4344","CO-CON-18256|2019|Ordinary election|4345","CO-CON-18256|2015|Ordinary election|4346"],"shares":[[0.31905920519059205,0.2546634225466342],[0.37030774433547514,0.15235035508961786],[0.2573236889692586,0.20849909584086798]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":45.54642716351454,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-18410","country":"Colombia","region":"Caqueta","name":"La Montañita","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.6208732694355703,7.6090225563909755,6.354277600283989],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-18410|2023|Ordinary election|4347","CO-CON-18410|2019|Ordinary election|4348","CO-CON-18410|2015|Ordinary election|4349"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-18410|2023|Ordinary election|4347","CO-CON-18410|2019|Ordinary election|4348","CO-CON-18410|2015|Ordinary election|4349"],"shares":[[0.26277955271565495,0.22657082002129925],[0.3162406015037594,0.24015037593984964],[0.3045793397231097,0.2410365637202698]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":74.54670755696483,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-18460","country":"Colombia","region":"Caqueta","name":"Milan","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.271102284011917,12.465977136635818,1.0466988727858286],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-18460|2023|Ordinary election|4350","CO-CON-18460|2019|Ordinary election|4351","CO-CON-18460|2015|Ordinary election|4352"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-18460|2023|Ordinary election|4350","CO-CON-18460|2019|Ordinary election|4351","CO-CON-18460|2015|Ordinary election|4352"],"shares":[[0.2927010923535253,0.17999006951340615],[0.31682090364725096,0.19216113228089277],[0.19457863660762212,0.18411164787976383]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":46.964378006617615,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-18479","country":"Colombia","region":"Caqueta","name":"Morelia","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.760412194074707,10.37003197807218,3.420805998125587],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-18479|2023|Ordinary election|4353","CO-CON-18479|2019|Ordinary election|4354","CO-CON-18479|2015|Ordinary election|4355"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-18479|2023|Ordinary election|4353","CO-CON-18479|2019|Ordinary election|4354","CO-CON-18479|2015|Ordinary election|4355"],"shares":[[0.2391584370974667,0.22155431515671964],[0.30196436729100046,0.19826404751027865],[0.19821930646672914,0.16401124648547327]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":77.45331245160482,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-18592|2023|Ordinary election|4356","CO-CON-18592|2019|Ordinary election|4357","CO-CON-18592|2015|Ordinary election|4358"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-18592|2023|Ordinary election|4356","CO-CON-18592|2019|Ordinary election|4357","CO-CON-18592|2015|Ordinary election|4358"],"shares":[[0.3477469763459274,0.1997217167933212],[0.2620117525060491,0.22629335176863694],[0.2515212981744422,0.15129459491707434]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":45.22332686073792,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-18610","country":"Colombia","region":"Caqueta","name":"San Jose Del Fragua","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.3661202185792334,5.368456152050683,2.9819161215852237],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-18610|2023|Ordinary election|4359","CO-CON-18610|2019|Ordinary election|4360","CO-CON-18610|2015|Ordinary election|4361"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-18610|2023|Ordinary election|4359","CO-CON-18610|2019|Ordinary election|4360","CO-CON-18610|2015|Ordinary election|4361"],"shares":[[0.19029251044680165,0.1766313082610093],[0.2302434144714905,0.17655885295098364],[0.16987302808772603,0.1400538668718738]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.35799705539367,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-18753","country":"Colombia","region":"Caqueta","name":"San Vicente Del Caguan","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.9061501373549383,11.681034482758621,1.0680409291209187],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-18753|2023|Ordinary election|4362","CO-CON-18753|2019|Ordinary election|4363","CO-CON-18753|2015|Ordinary election|4364"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-18753|2023|Ordinary election|4362","CO-CON-18753|2019|Ordinary election|4363","CO-CON-18753|2015|Ordinary election|4364"],"shares":[[0.21948758199248755,0.20042608061893816],[0.2637931034482759,0.14698275862068966],[0.2049443573082381,0.1942639480170289]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":76.2259773992368,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,20.042608061893816,4.911139765655659,3.195604642036217,2.573302685429164,21.948758199248754,16.426529124852834,0,16.482592364186804,0,14.419465156696754],[3.82183908045977,26.379310344827587,14.698275862068966,11.918103448275861,7.693965517241379,14.655172413793103,2.7945402298850577,0,13.584770114942529,0,4.454022988505747],[3.8464411083725447,19.42639480170289,13.481215923519306,7.229815520203152,3.107028157442677,17.701097916199867,2.315333482709687,0,20.49443573082381,0,12.398237359026066]],"volatility_latest":33.788839097858705,"volatility_previous":17.92440751672114,"volatility_mean":25.856623307289922,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-18756","country":"Colombia","region":"Caqueta","name":"Solano","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.590118938700822,1.3537675606641137,13.343283582089553],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-18756|2023|Ordinary election|4365","CO-CON-18756|2019|Ordinary election|4366","CO-CON-18756|2015|Ordinary election|4367"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-18756|2023|Ordinary election|4365","CO-CON-18756|2019|Ordinary election|4366","CO-CON-18756|2015|Ordinary election|4367"],"shares":[[0.2641811527904849,0.15827996340347666],[0.18697318007662836,0.17343550446998723],[0.2880597014925373,0.15462686567164177]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":59.52735005185659,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-18785","country":"Colombia","region":"Caqueta","name":"Solita","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.915004602638845,4.747576061517886,0.22414345180915873],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-18785|2023|Ordinary election|4368","CO-CON-18785|2019|Ordinary election|4369","CO-CON-18785|2015|Ordinary election|4370"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-18785|2023|Ordinary election|4368","CO-CON-18785|2019|Ordinary election|4369","CO-CON-18785|2015|Ordinary election|4370"],"shares":[[0.2230745627493096,0.19392451672292116],[0.24473420260782347,0.1972584419926446],[0.24239513288504644,0.24015369836695485]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":84.02155037390206,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-18860|2023|Ordinary election|4371","CO-CON-18860|2019|Ordinary election|4372","CO-CON-18860|2015|Ordinary election|4373"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-18860|2023|Ordinary election|4371","CO-CON-18860|2019|Ordinary election|4372","CO-CON-18860|2015|Ordinary election|4373"],"shares":[[0.16684753119913187,0.16033640803038524],[0.1982089552238806,0.19074626865671643],[0.1807483403741702,0.16143633071816535]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":95.96165958150115,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19001|2023|Ordinary election|4374","CO-CON-19001|2019|Ordinary election|4375","CO-CON-19001|2015|Ordinary election|4376"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19001|2023|Ordinary election|4374","CO-CON-19001|2019|Ordinary election|4375","CO-CON-19001|2015|Ordinary election|4376"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.1539617920035855,0.13032923117145045],[0.17844627585738276,0.12161099624333847]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19022|2023|Ordinary election|4377","CO-CON-19022|2019|Ordinary election|4378","CO-CON-19022|2015|Ordinary election|4379"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19022|2023|Ordinary election|4377","CO-CON-19022|2019|Ordinary election|4378","CO-CON-19022|2015|Ordinary election|4379"],"shares":[[0.6300377358490565,0.337811320754717],[0.5592500884329678,0.3270840702747318],[0.5007905138339921,0.3696969696969697]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19050|2023|Ordinary election|4380","CO-CON-19050|2019|Ordinary election|4381","CO-CON-19050|2015|Ordinary election|4382"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19050|2023|Ordinary election|4380","CO-CON-19050|2019|Ordinary election|4381","CO-CON-19050|2015|Ordinary election|4382"],"shares":[[0.3852524006695445,0.17892696678706724],[0.35849897495320443,0.2097334878331402],[0.32073472271282233,0.2802896503002473]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":13.76529314661843,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-19075","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Balboa","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.230719377835385,4.857370835826853,8.80875293066875],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19075|2023|Ordinary election|4383","CO-CON-19075|2019|Ordinary election|4384","CO-CON-19075|2015|Ordinary election|4385"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19075|2023|Ordinary election|4383","CO-CON-19075|2019|Ordinary election|4384","CO-CON-19075|2015|Ordinary election|4385"],"shares":[[0.27867790019442645,0.1963707064160726],[0.2753840015958508,0.22681029323758228],[0.3419671765099922,0.2538796472033047]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":63.61740914741919,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19100|2023|Ordinary election|4386","CO-CON-19100|2019|Ordinary election|4387","CO-CON-19100|2015|Ordinary election|4388"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19100|2023|Ordinary election|4386","CO-CON-19100|2019|Ordinary election|4387","CO-CON-19100|2015|Ordinary election|4388"],"shares":[[0.32078559738134205,0.2937806873977087],[0.2158785082660515,0.1887094707163911],[0.41889732321214546,0.31262485017978425]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":82.50954772084287,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19110|2023|Ordinary election|4389","CO-CON-19110|2019|Ordinary election|4390","CO-CON-19110|2015|Ordinary election|4391"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19110|2023|Ordinary election|4389","CO-CON-19110|2019|Ordinary election|4390","CO-CON-19110|2015|Ordinary election|4391"],"shares":[[0.3110393946138437,0.22000890273759183],[0.3485747527632344,0.24758580570098895],[0.25583471495982657,0.2105598775666369]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":55.27876850812812,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19130|2023|Ordinary election|4392","CO-CON-19130|2019|Ordinary election|4393","CO-CON-19130|2015|Ordinary election|4394"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19130|2023|Ordinary election|4392","CO-CON-19130|2019|Ordinary election|4393","CO-CON-19130|2015|Ordinary election|4394"],"shares":[[0.3491295938104449,0.23186653771760157],[0.341847696347577,0.29641123577623935],[0.34945866987454893,0.3182677435985564]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":56.446067772646735,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19137|2023|Ordinary election|4395","CO-CON-19137|2019|Ordinary election|4396","CO-CON-19137|2015|Ordinary election|4397"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19137|2023|Ordinary election|4395","CO-CON-19137|2019|Ordinary election|4396","CO-CON-19137|2015|Ordinary election|4397"],"shares":[[0.3317426230812057,0.18317028553249023],[0.23580225795415669,0.18867601778994186],[0.22328340203076305,0.21101839750678597]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":47.746112484554274,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-19142","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Caloto","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.005734230865119,4.994274641064035,5.309647659240358],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19142|2023|Ordinary election|4398","CO-CON-19142|2019|Ordinary election|4399","CO-CON-19142|2015|Ordinary election|4400"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19142|2023|Ordinary election|4398","CO-CON-19142|2019|Ordinary election|4399","CO-CON-19142|2015|Ordinary election|4400"],"shares":[[0.23502036067481094,0.16496301836615973],[0.24865674271117766,0.1987139963005373],[0.2531161056040828,0.20001962901167925]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":68.83656151618841,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-19212","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Corinto","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.2462121212121211,7.519920318725099,5.590934631953548],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19212|2023|Ordinary election|4401","CO-CON-19212|2019|Ordinary election|4402","CO-CON-19212|2015|Ordinary election|4403"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19212|2023|Ordinary election|4401","CO-CON-19212|2019|Ordinary election|4402","CO-CON-19212|2015|Ordinary election|4403"],"shares":[[0.27566287878787876,0.27320075757575757],[0.2750996015936255,0.1999003984063745],[0.3350814759318224,0.27917212961228693]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":85.18601584229921,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-19256","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"El Tambo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.94628216002262,27.5737507525587,28.570554773992296],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19256|2023|Ordinary election|4404","CO-CON-19256|2019|Ordinary election|4405","CO-CON-19256|2015|Ordinary election|4406"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19256|2023|Ordinary election|4404","CO-CON-19256|2019|Ordinary election|4405","CO-CON-19256|2015|Ordinary election|4406"],"shares":[[0.2515125812835737,0.15204975968334747],[0.4464512676433206,0.17071376011773365],[0.4262646033396538,0.14055905559973086]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":14.515250004097947,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-19290","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Florencia","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.919312857886517,9.872241579558654,3.2866707242848427],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19290|2023|Ordinary election|4407","CO-CON-19290|2019|Ordinary election|4408","CO-CON-19290|2015|Ordinary election|4409"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19290|2023|Ordinary election|4407","CO-CON-19290|2019|Ordinary election|4408","CO-CON-19290|2015|Ordinary election|4409"],"shares":[[0.29724102030192606,0.2480478917230609],[0.33159117305458774,0.23286875725900116],[0.25015216068167984,0.2172854534388314]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":68.79036369486005,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-19300","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Guachene","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.8729792147805995,3.9965163537836297,9.865573023467759],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19300|2023|Ordinary election|4410","CO-CON-19300|2019|Ordinary election|4411","CO-CON-19300|2015|Ordinary election|4412"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19300|2023|Ordinary election|4410","CO-CON-19300|2019|Ordinary election|4411","CO-CON-19300|2015|Ordinary election|4412"],"shares":[[0.24304849884526558,0.17431870669745958],[0.24201664408747825,0.20205148054964195],[0.23820915926179084,0.13955342902711323]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":68.45350131324888,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-19318","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Guapi","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.3459145582745755,2.096032509891991,4.041315683914963],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19318|2023|Ordinary election|4413","CO-CON-19318|2019|Ordinary election|4414","CO-CON-19318|2015|Ordinary election|4415"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19318|2023|Ordinary election|4413","CO-CON-19318|2019|Ordinary election|4414","CO-CON-19318|2015|Ordinary election|4415"],"shares":[[0.19151804230609706,0.1280588967233513],[0.21719602181584857,0.19623569671692867],[0.20306859205776173,0.16265543521861212]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.79754971838081,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-19355","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Inza","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.545964024224894,2.316831683168317,4.4010304851867765],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19355|2023|Ordinary election|4416","CO-CON-19355|2019|Ordinary election|4417","CO-CON-19355|2015|Ordinary election|4418"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19355|2023|Ordinary election|4416","CO-CON-19355|2019|Ordinary election|4417","CO-CON-19355|2015|Ordinary election|4418"],"shares":[[0.4197776371689415,0.2143179969266926],[0.2834653465346535,0.2602970297029703],[0.3095749248604551,0.2655646200085874]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":32.68634515997946,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19364|2023|Ordinary election|4419","CO-CON-19364|2019|Ordinary election|4420","CO-CON-19364|2015|Ordinary election|4421"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19364|2023|Ordinary election|4419","CO-CON-19364|2019|Ordinary election|4420","CO-CON-19364|2015|Ordinary election|4421"],"shares":[[0.7252252252252253,0.2747747747747748],[0.7499055534567435,0.2500944465432565],[0.5617173524150268,0.18000894454382826]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. MISSING ordinary-cycle return(s): [2015]; no zero or substitute election inserted. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19392|2023|Ordinary election|4422","CO-CON-19392|2019|Ordinary election|4423"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19392|2023|Ordinary election|4422","CO-CON-19392|2019|Ordinary election|4423","CO-CON-19392|2015|Ordinary election|6816"],"shares":[[0.19634473507712943,0.18561368209255533],[0.1996343085106383,0.19165558510638298],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19397|2023|Ordinary election|4424","CO-CON-19397|2019|Ordinary election|4425","CO-CON-19397|2015|Ordinary election|4426"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19397|2023|Ordinary election|4424","CO-CON-19397|2019|Ordinary election|4425","CO-CON-19397|2015|Ordinary election|4426"],"shares":[[0.39824505761708423,0.23596574690770694],[0.3640379734937494,0.29241470062975844],[0.3620835090679039,0.3213833825390131]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":38.53770953114364,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-19418","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Lopez (Micay)","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.813256180957389,3.472565496786949,6.8378919279519685],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19418|2023|Ordinary election|4427","CO-CON-19418|2019|Ordinary election|4428","CO-CON-19418|2015|Ordinary election|4429"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19418|2023|Ordinary election|4427","CO-CON-19418|2019|Ordinary election|4428","CO-CON-19418|2015|Ordinary election|4429"],"shares":[[0.33876906891109937,0.2906365071015255],[0.3069698467622343,0.2722441917943648],[0.3865910607071381,0.31821214142761844]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":76.93243724797144,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-19450","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Mercaderes","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.3119884448724122,0.31478217073784975,3.202347537637152],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19450|2023|Ordinary election|4430","CO-CON-19450|2019|Ordinary election|4431","CO-CON-19450|2015|Ordinary election|4432"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19450|2023|Ordinary election|4430","CO-CON-19450|2019|Ordinary election|4431","CO-CON-19450|2015|Ordinary election|4432"],"shares":[[0.20895522388059704,0.19583533943187292],[0.19806094182825487,0.19491312012087636],[0.28042868078591476,0.24840520540954325]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":93.99068764045741,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[19.58353394318729,0.3490611458834858,5.512758786711603,6.126624939817043,0,12.915262397688975,0,0,0,0,55.51275878671161],[18.257365902795264,14.228154117350794,19.491312012087636,19.806094182825486,0,18.987660538907075,0,0,0,0,9.229413246033745],[19.686144424598112,20.885429956621586,28.04286807859148,6.545036999234498,0,24.840520540954326,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":47.60951358106989,"volatility_previous":22.490470429624732,"volatility_mean":35.04999200534731,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-19455","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Miranda","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.927592371871274,8.326457129997749,0.5174644243208277],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19455|2023|Ordinary election|4433","CO-CON-19455|2019|Ordinary election|4434","CO-CON-19455|2015|Ordinary election|4435"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19455|2023|Ordinary election|4433","CO-CON-19455|2019|Ordinary election|4434","CO-CON-19455|2015|Ordinary election|4435"],"shares":[[0.15725566150178782,0.1279797377830751],[0.21326232090615857,0.12999774960618107],[0.17404053471323844,0.16886589047003017]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":78.46880497722914,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-19473","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Morales","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.21962839447356,6.8741893644617384,0.7468030690537084],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19473|2023|Ordinary election|4436","CO-CON-19473|2019|Ordinary election|4437","CO-CON-19473|2015|Ordinary election|4438"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19473|2023|Ordinary election|4436","CO-CON-19473|2019|Ordinary election|4437","CO-CON-19473|2015|Ordinary election|4438"],"shares":[[0.27004922979196444,0.15785294584722884],[0.2636649990735594,0.19492310542894198],[0.22076726342710998,0.2132992327365729]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":55.65642923535986,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-19513","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Padilla","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.37528604118993,1.0235191637630656,1.9003476245654696],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19513|2023|Ordinary election|4439","CO-CON-19513|2019|Ordinary election|4440","CO-CON-19513|2015|Ordinary election|4441"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19513|2023|Ordinary election|4439","CO-CON-19513|2019|Ordinary election|4440","CO-CON-19513|2015|Ordinary election|4441"],"shares":[[0.21029748283752858,0.12654462242562928],[0.17029616724738678,0.1600609756097561],[0.23406720741599074,0.21506373117033603]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":72.38868931850287,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-19517","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Paez (Belalcazar)","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[31.24531132783196,28.048780487804876,6.587347649448631],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19517|2023|Ordinary election|4442","CO-CON-19517|2019|Ordinary election|4443","CO-CON-19517|2015|Ordinary election|4444"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19517|2023|Ordinary election|4442","CO-CON-19517|2019|Ordinary election|4443","CO-CON-19517|2015|Ordinary election|4444"],"shares":[[0.5275693923480871,0.21511627906976746],[0.43932427029188326,0.15883646541383448],[0.4048171793383633,0.338943702843877]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19532|2023|Ordinary election|4445","CO-CON-19532|2019|Ordinary election|4446","CO-CON-19532|2015|Ordinary election|4447"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19532|2023|Ordinary election|4445","CO-CON-19532|2019|Ordinary election|4446","CO-CON-19532|2015|Ordinary election|4447"],"shares":[[0.32581829076473673,0.2065013856639952],[0.14838762481584547,0.14364053036503519],[0.3293544048419637,0.17837928715534634]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":55.94410841782512,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19533|2023|Ordinary election|4448","CO-CON-19533|2019|Ordinary election|4449","CO-CON-19533|2015|Ordinary election|4450"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19533|2023|Ordinary election|4448","CO-CON-19533|2019|Ordinary election|4449","CO-CON-19533|2015|Ordinary election|4450"],"shares":[[0.257192033439882,0.25006147037128107],[0.2716297786720322,0.225639551595286],[0.22572091481604242,0.21876035797149487]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":90.61426917568042,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-19548","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Piendamo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.198504418762745,4.598908021839563,6.166640514671268],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19548|2023|Ordinary election|4451","CO-CON-19548|2019|Ordinary election|4452","CO-CON-19548|2015|Ordinary election|4453"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19548|2023|Ordinary election|4451","CO-CON-19548|2019|Ordinary election|4452","CO-CON-19548|2015|Ordinary election|4453"],"shares":[[0.3302515295717199,0.14826648538409246],[0.25878482430351396,0.2127957440851183],[0.31476541660128665,0.253099011454574]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":35.422804453616784,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-19573","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Puerto Tejada","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.2145195890256293,9.791332263242376,0.7903115760745969],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19573|2023|Ordinary election|4454","CO-CON-19573|2019|Ordinary election|4455","CO-CON-19573|2015|Ordinary election|4456"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19573|2023|Ordinary election|4454","CO-CON-19573|2019|Ordinary election|4455","CO-CON-19573|2015|Ordinary election|4456"],"shares":[[0.11781641639381281,0.11567122050355652],[0.20674157303370788,0.10882825040128412],[0.17301569251762566,0.16511257675687968]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":84.27428705002225,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19585|2023|Ordinary election|4457","CO-CON-19585|2019|Ordinary election|4458","CO-CON-19585|2015|Ordinary election|4459"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19585|2023|Ordinary election|4457","CO-CON-19585|2019|Ordinary election|4458","CO-CON-19585|2015|Ordinary election|4459"],"shares":[[0.21439804298444873,0.21002970470033197],[0.27161767233969397,0.19185146982980916],[0.2545454545454545,0.24356060606060606]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.17532571403983,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-19622","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Rosas","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.788157410812797,11.030195381882773,5.381510666922928],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19622|2023|Ordinary election|4460","CO-CON-19622|2019|Ordinary election|4461","CO-CON-19622|2015|Ordinary election|4462"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19622|2023|Ordinary election|4460","CO-CON-19622|2019|Ordinary election|4461","CO-CON-19622|2015|Ordinary election|4462"],"shares":[[0.2655388010297904,0.2276572269216624],[0.29928952042628776,0.18898756660746002],[0.24620411301172399,0.19238900634249473]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":69.39947936127598,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-19693","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"San Sebastian","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.281513679365887,10.653230160158358,33.4433870654496],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19693|2023|Ordinary election|4463","CO-CON-19693|2019|Ordinary election|4464","CO-CON-19693|2015|Ordinary election|4465"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19693|2023|Ordinary election|4463","CO-CON-19693|2019|Ordinary election|4464","CO-CON-19693|2015|Ordinary election|4465"],"shares":[[0.5464075683968295,0.4535924316031706],[0.4743566672665107,0.36782436566492716],[0.5752573315206836,0.24082346086618758]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":39.45392018894,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19698|2023|Ordinary election|4466","CO-CON-19698|2019|Ordinary election|4467","CO-CON-19698|2015|Ordinary election|4468"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19698|2023|Ordinary election|4466","CO-CON-19698|2019|Ordinary election|4467","CO-CON-19698|2015|Ordinary election|4468"],"shares":[[0.1724532330215535,0.16170191134607564],[0.2804730934648065,0.14583551872443093],[0.24597404735123862,0.21069380812597735]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":74.81495532503725,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-19701","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Santa Rosa","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.0200070200070215,1.323119777158773,6.653992395437264],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19701|2023|Ordinary election|4469","CO-CON-19701|2019|Ordinary election|4470","CO-CON-19701|2015|Ordinary election|4471"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19701|2023|Ordinary election|4469","CO-CON-19701|2019|Ordinary election|4470","CO-CON-19701|2015|Ordinary election|4471"],"shares":[[0.30923130923130926,0.23903123903123902],[0.30779944289693595,0.2945682451253482],[0.23688212927756655,0.1703422053231939]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":73.62830307652214,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,23.903123903123902,16.98841698841699,18.216918216918216,0,9.968409968409969,0,30.923130923130923,0,0,0],[9.644846796657381,16.643454038997213,29.45682451253482,30.779944289693592,0,13.474930362116991,0,0,0,0,0],[6.197718631178708,11.140684410646388,23.688212927756656,13.612167300380229,0,17.03422053231939,5.551330798479087,4.144486692015209,0,6.007604562737643,12.623574144486692]],"volatility_latest":38.18280078725761,"volatility_previous":31.88628636792103,"volatility_mean":35.03454357758932,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-19743","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Silvia","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.485763589301122,13.24595649749024,5.859411273098708],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19743|2023|Ordinary election|4472","CO-CON-19743|2019|Ordinary election|4473","CO-CON-19743|2015|Ordinary election|4474"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19743|2023|Ordinary election|4472","CO-CON-19743|2019|Ordinary election|4473","CO-CON-19743|2015|Ordinary election|4474"],"shares":[[0.2728213977566868,0.23796376186367557],[0.3401189812232757,0.2076594162483733],[0.2959420559011979,0.2373479431702108]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":66.74406884931192,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-19760","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Sotara (Paispamba)","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[24.63085812112133,29.536454693687396,7.906085289889795],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19760|2023|Ordinary election|4475","CO-CON-19760|2019|Ordinary election|4476","CO-CON-19760|2015|Ordinary election|4477"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19760|2023|Ordinary election|4475","CO-CON-19760|2019|Ordinary election|4476","CO-CON-19760|2015|Ordinary election|4477"],"shares":[[0.41600684784934727,0.16969826663813398],[0.44327975774516654,0.14791521080829256],[0.27455678006708195,0.19549592716818398]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-19780","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Suarez","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.183349221480775,6.501168874540799,13.815510665348214],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19780|2023|Ordinary election|4478","CO-CON-19780|2019|Ordinary election|4479","CO-CON-19780|2015|Ordinary election|4480"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19780|2023|Ordinary election|4478","CO-CON-19780|2019|Ordinary election|4479","CO-CON-19780|2015|Ordinary election|4480"],"shares":[[0.3305793877767186,0.23874589556191084],[0.2385617277078927,0.1735500389624847],[0.290295239440599,0.15214013278711683]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":55.79044369107237,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-19785","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Sucre","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.741219963031423,8.637142158062147,20.438957475994513],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19785|2023|Ordinary election|4481","CO-CON-19785|2019|Ordinary election|4482","CO-CON-19785|2015|Ordinary election|4483"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19785|2023|Ordinary election|4481","CO-CON-19785|2019|Ordinary election|4482","CO-CON-19785|2015|Ordinary election|4483"],"shares":[[0.4080406654343808,0.2606284658040665],[0.25006116956202595,0.16368974798140445],[0.3588477366255144,0.15445816186556927]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":32.60114813581525,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19807|2023|Ordinary election|4484","CO-CON-19807|2019|Ordinary election|4485","CO-CON-19807|2015|Ordinary election|4486"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19807|2023|Ordinary election|4484","CO-CON-19807|2019|Ordinary election|4485","CO-CON-19807|2015|Ordinary election|4486"],"shares":[[0.228427544842415,0.1779550727097833],[0.21836196358489354,0.15833494177443222],[0.2308546785154208,0.22824098274960794]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.72352030035066,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-19809","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Timbiqui","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.2574354504848024,8.521581282775312,4.7811447811447785],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19809|2023|Ordinary election|4487","CO-CON-19809|2019|Ordinary election|4488","CO-CON-19809|2015|Ordinary election|4489"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19809|2023|Ordinary election|4487","CO-CON-19809|2019|Ordinary election|4488","CO-CON-19809|2015|Ordinary election|4489"],"shares":[[0.24033119076152087,0.20775683625667285],[0.28862444534086323,0.20340863251311014],[0.23916947250280582,0.19135802469135804]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.05474933381024,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,18.248175182481752,0,0,81.75182481751825],[15.73215006050827,0,15.046389673255344,28.862444534086325,0,7.331585316659943,0,12.686567164179104,0,0,20.340863251311013],[18.09203142536476,8.103254769921437,14.197530864197532,19.135802469135804,0,23.916947250280582,0,9.438832772166105,0,0,7.115600448933782]],"volatility_latest":66.97256958450988,"volatility_previous":27.048498068398565,"volatility_mean":47.01053382645422,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-19821","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Toribio","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[36.96086832333619,24.97514416384967,43.47677595628416],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19821|2023|Ordinary election|4490","CO-CON-19821|2019|Ordinary election|4491","CO-CON-19821|2015|Ordinary election|4492"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19821|2023|Ordinary election|4490","CO-CON-19821|2019|Ordinary election|4491","CO-CON-19821|2015|Ordinary election|4492"],"shares":[[0.5323240978767971,0.1627154146434352],[0.5157088884470074,0.26595744680851063],[0.6198770491803279,0.18510928961748632]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19824|2023|Ordinary election|4493","CO-CON-19824|2019|Ordinary election|4494","CO-CON-19824|2015|Ordinary election|4495"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19824|2023|Ordinary election|4493","CO-CON-19824|2019|Ordinary election|4494","CO-CON-19824|2015|Ordinary election|4495"],"shares":[[0.36305644154763556,0.21675218416308417],[0.2994343180389692,0.288874921433061],[0.3338008415147265,0.29920523609163163]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":52.79503302259361,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[3.0231590625433364,12.605741228678408,0,0,0,12.980169185965886,0,12.508667313826098,0,0,58.882263208986274],[12.168447517284726,14.09176618478944,0,0,0,0,28.887492143306098,14.908862350722815,0,29.94343180389692,0],[8.602150537634408,14.165497896213184,13.931743805516597,0,0,0,33.38008415147265,0,0,29.920523609163162,0]],"volatility_latest":71.86243239495217,"volatility_previous":18.498067525106894,"volatility_mean":45.18024996002953,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-19845|2023|Ordinary election|4496","CO-CON-19845|2019|Ordinary election|4497","CO-CON-19845|2015|Ordinary election|4498"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-19845|2023|Ordinary election|4496","CO-CON-19845|2019|Ordinary election|4497","CO-CON-19845|2015|Ordinary election|4498"],"shares":[[0.12089227421109902,0.11349292709466813],[0.17232690622261174,0.14428133216476774],[0.21269641734758016,0.1751099937146449]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":91.69403857474737,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-20001|2023|Ordinary election|4499","CO-CON-20001|2019|Ordinary election|4500","CO-CON-20001|2015|Ordinary election|4501"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-20001|2023|Ordinary election|4499","CO-CON-20001|2019|Ordinary election|4500","CO-CON-20001|2015|Ordinary election|4501"],"shares":[[0.14116434516885357,0.1296583148999777],[0.10990557498817498,0.10919899326703533],[0.11974766562916851,0.11295297910182303]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":96.10246933479903,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-20011|2023|Ordinary election|4502","CO-CON-20011|2019|Ordinary election|4503","CO-CON-20011|2015|Ordinary election|4504"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-20011|2023|Ordinary election|4502","CO-CON-20011|2019|Ordinary election|4503","CO-CON-20011|2015|Ordinary election|4504"],"shares":[[0.10100021281123643,0.09921259842519685],[0.11104218362282879,0.09012761432116272],[0.1231202071506822,0.10813166019320784]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":95.5771029410645,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-20032|2023|Ordinary election|4508","CO-CON-20032|2019|Ordinary election|4509","CO-CON-20032|2015|Ordinary election|4510"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-20032|2023|Ordinary election|4508","CO-CON-20032|2019|Ordinary election|4509","CO-CON-20032|2015|Ordinary election|4510"],"shares":[[0.23163892103623254,0.19576248553369535],[0.20541494997057094,0.14106337061016283],[0.1903914590747331,0.1424599644128114]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":77.18775771208153,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-20045|2023|Ordinary election|4511","CO-CON-20045|2019|Ordinary election|4512","CO-CON-20045|2015|Ordinary election|4513"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-20045|2023|Ordinary election|4511","CO-CON-20045|2019|Ordinary election|4512","CO-CON-20045|2015|Ordinary election|4513"],"shares":[[0.15114529342919245,0.13116535696371845],[0.14313525540001854,0.12848799480856588],[0.1481144934120854,0.1366424352567015]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":91.23532706387071,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-20060","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"Bosconia","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.14287737853534,0.14568607349053053,5.73062179195634],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-20060|2023|Ordinary election|4514","CO-CON-20060|2019|Ordinary election|4515","CO-CON-20060|2015|Ordinary election|4516"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-20060|2023|Ordinary election|4514","CO-CON-20060|2019|Ordinary election|4515","CO-CON-20060|2015|Ordinary election|4516"],"shares":[[0.20633646536663675,0.14490769158128336],[0.14757459666540765,0.14611773593050234],[0.21363134299265807,0.15632512507309465]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":78.48752785818002,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-20175","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"Chimichagua","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.479222881813277,2.707790327251665,2.4395753331827414],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-20175|2023|Ordinary election|4517","CO-CON-20175|2019|Ordinary election|4518","CO-CON-20175|2015|Ordinary election|4519"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-20175|2023|Ordinary election|4517","CO-CON-20175|2019|Ordinary election|4518","CO-CON-20175|2015|Ordinary election|4519"],"shares":[[0.18787101996762007,0.14307879114948732],[0.17108311613090066,0.14400521285838402],[0.19945787214818161,0.1750621188163542]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":81.2808581970913,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[18.787101996762008,3.878845116028063,8.088235294117647,11.75796006475985,5.801403130059363,8.445763626551537,14.307879114948731,11.548839719373989,0,0,17.38397193739881],[14.400521285838401,17.108311613090066,11.417607877208225,11.35968722849696,6.726035331595714,12.366058499855198,13.155227338546192,5.9658268172603535,4.13408630176658,0.774688676513177,2.5919490298291343],[16.602665461938106,19.94578721481816,13.6134327234395,11.821398991039832,2.537459528649951,9.351705443867179,8.621338754611852,0,0,0,17.50621188163542]],"volatility_latest":26.312541133272347,"volatility_previous":22.61141923840823,"volatility_mean":24.46198018584029,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-20178","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"Chiriguana","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.988062670977367,3.2765226582111247,0.7712867506681924],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-20178|2023|Ordinary election|4520","CO-CON-20178|2019|Ordinary election|4521","CO-CON-20178|2015|Ordinary election|4522"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-20178|2023|Ordinary election|4520","CO-CON-20178|2019|Ordinary election|4521","CO-CON-20178|2015|Ordinary election|4522"],"shares":[[0.26305645361850283,0.13317582690872917],[0.18681463865768266,0.1540494120755714],[0.1633447880870561,0.1556319205803742]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":55.735384624417115,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-20228","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"Curumani","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.740556934105319,6.507899080405563,1.7475447718082027],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-20228|2023|Ordinary election|4523","CO-CON-20228|2019|Ordinary election|4524","CO-CON-20228|2015|Ordinary election|4525"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-20228|2023|Ordinary election|4523","CO-CON-20228|2019|Ordinary election|4524","CO-CON-20228|2015|Ordinary election|4525"],"shares":[[0.16961676316515026,0.14221119382409705],[0.19146427729309123,0.1263852864890356],[0.17569324090121316,0.15821779318313114]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":81.1427081911716,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-20238|2023|Ordinary election|4526","CO-CON-20238|2019|Ordinary election|4527","CO-CON-20238|2015|Ordinary election|4528"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-20238|2023|Ordinary election|4526","CO-CON-20238|2019|Ordinary election|4527","CO-CON-20238|2015|Ordinary election|4528"],"shares":[[0.1493406930389451,0.14044771542471635],[0.16743274300392053,0.12363120183858321],[0.20789644949020175,0.1288596427796659]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.81003520540398,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-20250","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"El Paso","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.0147550874883429,0.4182071640705498,0.9810126582278471],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-20250|2023|Ordinary election|4529","CO-CON-20250|2019|Ordinary election|4530","CO-CON-20250|2015|Ordinary election|4531"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-20250|2023|Ordinary election|4529","CO-CON-20250|2019|Ordinary election|4530","CO-CON-20250|2015|Ordinary election|4531"],"shares":[[0.2106850968131205,0.20053754593823708],[0.13873568095036062,0.13455360930965513],[0.18125,0.17143987341772152]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":95.83791766231522,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-20295|2023|Ordinary election|4532","CO-CON-20295|2019|Ordinary election|4533","CO-CON-20295|2015|Ordinary election|4534"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-20295|2023|Ordinary election|4532","CO-CON-20295|2019|Ordinary election|4533","CO-CON-20295|2015|Ordinary election|4534"],"shares":[[0.2133354202535608,0.18829237752386915],[0.22276251807070577,0.1892495728742279],[0.22260819221305542,0.20929222752930962]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.79434716743353,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-20310","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"Gonzalez","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.732099101551864,11.832298136645964,3.1863653204890667],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-20310|2023|Ordinary election|4535","CO-CON-20310|2019|Ordinary election|4536","CO-CON-20310|2015|Ordinary election|4537"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-20310|2023|Ordinary election|4535","CO-CON-20310|2019|Ordinary election|4536","CO-CON-20310|2015|Ordinary election|4537"],"shares":[[0.2921317723931391,0.21481078137762047],[0.327639751552795,0.2093167701863354],[0.3705075954057058,0.3386439422008152]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":57.46207283013093,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-20383","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"La Gloria","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.523815415068661,5.613988956087301,2.6417803302225416],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-20383|2023|Ordinary election|4538","CO-CON-20383|2019|Ordinary election|4539","CO-CON-20383|2015|Ordinary election|4540"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-20383|2023|Ordinary election|4538","CO-CON-20383|2019|Ordinary election|4539","CO-CON-20383|2015|Ordinary election|4540"],"shares":[[0.2640108870468885,0.2387727328962019],[0.2856955035498291,0.22955561398895608],[0.24465183058147882,0.21823402727925342]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":82.6866801555518,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-20400","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"La Jagua De Ibirico","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.6446813786263341,3.787264246603124,5.058889512058329],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-20400|2023|Ordinary election|4541","CO-CON-20400|2019|Ordinary election|4542","CO-CON-20400|2015|Ordinary election|4543"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-20400|2023|Ordinary election|4541","CO-CON-20400|2019|Ordinary election|4542","CO-CON-20400|2015|Ordinary election|4543"],"shares":[[0.21978675923630053,0.2133399454500372],[0.18728452646522004,0.1494118839991888],[0.2400448681996635,0.18945597307908021]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":89.85561473818716,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-20443|2023|Ordinary election|4544","CO-CON-20443|2019|Ordinary election|4545","CO-CON-20443|2015|Ordinary election|4546"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-20443|2023|Ordinary election|4544","CO-CON-20443|2019|Ordinary election|4545","CO-CON-20443|2015|Ordinary election|4546"],"shares":[[0.2712923894358493,0.20972026879199873],[0.18535507985049268,0.17516139993204213],[0.33311148086522463,0.22163061564059902]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":74.42526855784595,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-20517|2023|Ordinary election|4547","CO-CON-20517|2019|Ordinary election|4548","CO-CON-20517|2015|Ordinary election|4549"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-20517|2023|Ordinary election|4547","CO-CON-20517|2019|Ordinary election|4548","CO-CON-20517|2015|Ordinary election|4549"],"shares":[[0.306716995741386,0.2341269841269841],[0.23057097541633623,0.21946867565424266],[0.3044436709595081,0.22844877596008817]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":72.7579068013944,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-20550|2023|Ordinary election|4550","CO-CON-20550|2019|Ordinary election|4551","CO-CON-20550|2015|Ordinary election|4552"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-20550|2023|Ordinary election|4550","CO-CON-20550|2019|Ordinary election|4551","CO-CON-20550|2015|Ordinary election|4552"],"shares":[[0.2381318470113396,0.20834134153373055],[0.2041142613515242,0.19665316563632487],[0.28948019801980196,0.22091584158415842]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.51546617765521,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-20570","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"Pueblo Bello","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.222011548737395,0.949480472948764,7.370948379351741],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-20570|2023|Ordinary election|4553","CO-CON-20570|2019|Ordinary election|4554","CO-CON-20570|2015|Ordinary election|4555"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-20570|2023|Ordinary election|4553","CO-CON-20570|2019|Ordinary election|4554","CO-CON-20570|2015|Ordinary election|4555"],"shares":[[0.3082823407739378,0.2260622252865638],[0.2720351128627732,0.26254030813328555],[0.23661464585834335,0.16290516206482594]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":70.22427045468879,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-20614","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"Rio De Oro","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.568147953370147,0.4976958525345623,3.3941450997030103],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-20614|2023|Ordinary election|4556","CO-CON-20614|2019|Ordinary election|4557","CO-CON-20614|2015|Ordinary election|4558"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-20614|2023|Ordinary election|4556","CO-CON-20614|2019|Ordinary election|4557","CO-CON-20614|2015|Ordinary election|4558"],"shares":[[0.19090191953720748,0.165220440003506],[0.22857142857142856,0.22359447004608296],[0.25074246924056004,0.21680101824352993]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":89.85193981123622,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-20621|2023|Ordinary election|4559","CO-CON-20621|2019|Ordinary election|4560","CO-CON-20621|2015|Ordinary election|4561"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-20621|2023|Ordinary election|4559","CO-CON-20621|2019|Ordinary election|4560","CO-CON-20621|2015|Ordinary election|4561"],"shares":[[0.2470189797502293,0.18930360544697664],[0.19672131147540983,0.1739940387481371],[0.17935495149025435,0.15593042566209248]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":78.1050705085252,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-20710|2023|Ordinary election|4562","CO-CON-20710|2019|Ordinary election|4563","CO-CON-20710|2015|Ordinary election|4564"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-20710|2023|Ordinary election|4562","CO-CON-20710|2019|Ordinary election|4563","CO-CON-20710|2015|Ordinary election|4564"],"shares":[[0.25919424207846925,0.2022294391292899],[0.18428845148928757,0.138825988503745],[0.19411494252873562,0.12744827586206897]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":72.75785633408148,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-20750","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"San Diego","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.895450845618161,0.8473731432559077,4.826815642458101],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-20750|2023|Ordinary election|4565","CO-CON-20750|2019|Ordinary election|4566","CO-CON-20750|2015|Ordinary election|4567"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-20750|2023|Ordinary election|4565","CO-CON-20750|2019|Ordinary election|4566","CO-CON-20750|2015|Ordinary election|4567"],"shares":[[0.25820747038075426,0.17925296192457268],[0.2179244342538132,0.2094507028212541],[0.22759776536312848,0.1793296089385475]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":72.62917992703261,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-20770","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"San Martin","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.203670276774968,6.799224871514028,6.220145379023883],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-20770|2023|Ordinary election|4568","CO-CON-20770|2019|Ordinary election|4569","CO-CON-20770|2015|Ordinary election|4570"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-20770|2023|Ordinary election|4568","CO-CON-20770|2019|Ordinary election|4569","CO-CON-20770|2015|Ordinary election|4570"],"shares":[[0.1990824308062575,0.17704572803850785],[0.23557165725840423,0.16757940854326395],[0.22201453790238837,0.15981308411214953]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.08007917289211,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-20787|2023|Ordinary election|4571","CO-CON-20787|2019|Ordinary election|4572","CO-CON-20787|2015|Ordinary election|4573"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-20787|2023|Ordinary election|4571","CO-CON-20787|2019|Ordinary election|4572","CO-CON-20787|2015|Ordinary election|4573"],"shares":[[0.18789372774582308,0.18241577649958918],[0.20457659632776104,0.1895039736914223],[0.24472029663066258,0.1668547477027245]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":92.20244378428211,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-23001","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Monteria","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.8800538767311643,5.075383064020267,10.56893675722787],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-23001|2023|Ordinary election|4574","CO-CON-23001|2019|Ordinary election|4575","CO-CON-23001|2015|Ordinary election|4576"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-23001|2023|Ordinary election|4574","CO-CON-23001|2019|Ordinary election|4575","CO-CON-23001|2015|Ordinary election|4576"],"shares":[[0.1554916251718846,0.13669108640457295],[0.193074104134386,0.14232027349418333],[0.24016900140257313,0.13447963383029443]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":81.46229539516216,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-23068","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Ayapel","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.78700657894737,8.626645504621418,11.457808246799072],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-23068|2023|Ordinary election|4577","CO-CON-23068|2019|Ordinary election|4578","CO-CON-23068|2015|Ordinary election|4579"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-23068|2023|Ordinary election|4577","CO-CON-23068|2019|Ordinary election|4578","CO-CON-23068|2015|Ordinary election|4579"],"shares":[[0.21903782894736842,0.18116776315789473],[0.29497712631873774,0.20871067127252357],[0.3279060389152132,0.2133279564472225]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":69.97010788282623,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-23079","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Buenavista","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.844092842749458,9.273862329554788,4.659167226326396],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-23079|2023|Ordinary election|4580","CO-CON-23079|2019|Ordinary election|4581","CO-CON-23079|2015|Ordinary election|4582"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-23079|2023|Ordinary election|4580","CO-CON-23079|2019|Ordinary election|4581","CO-CON-23079|2015|Ordinary election|4582"],"shares":[[0.3727890141055303,0.2643480856780357],[0.3997864300969279,0.30704780680138],[0.27778710543989255,0.2311954331766286]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":51.22734436425625,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-23090|2023|Ordinary election|4583","CO-CON-23090|2019|Ordinary election|4584","CO-CON-23090|2015|Ordinary election|4585"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-23090|2023|Ordinary election|4583","CO-CON-23090|2019|Ordinary election|4584","CO-CON-23090|2015|Ordinary election|4585"],"shares":[[0.30683753751318027,0.20382837213074864],[0.1977857008819666,0.17282792268718336],[0.17460476285771465,0.14368621172703622]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":63.80765609951911,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-23162|2023|Ordinary election|4586","CO-CON-23162|2019|Ordinary election|4587","CO-CON-23162|2015|Ordinary election|4588"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-23162|2023|Ordinary election|4586","CO-CON-23162|2019|Ordinary election|4587","CO-CON-23162|2015|Ordinary election|4588"],"shares":[[0.17100296076980015,0.15601406365655068],[0.19724454183913642,0.17677136596055515],[0.2237222961695295,0.20855253427985887]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":91.67386638975444,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-23168|2023|Ordinary election|4589","CO-CON-23168|2019|Ordinary election|4590","CO-CON-23168|2015|Ordinary election|4591"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-23168|2023|Ordinary election|4589","CO-CON-23168|2019|Ordinary election|4590","CO-CON-23168|2015|Ordinary election|4591"],"shares":[[0.2018893650175302,0.150175301908843],[0.25126614987080104,0.1834625322997416],[0.293079473740507,0.2397047812600278]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":71.64650380771097,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-23182","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Chinu","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.3903235581293565,10.48346603543505,7.7109804665275945],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-23182|2023|Ordinary election|4592","CO-CON-23182|2019|Ordinary election|4593","CO-CON-23182|2015|Ordinary election|4594"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-23182|2023|Ordinary election|4592","CO-CON-23182|2019|Ordinary election|4593","CO-CON-23182|2015|Ordinary election|4594"],"shares":[[0.3411669640752837,0.2672637284939901],[0.31511369342227963,0.2102790330679291],[0.2504456666034515,0.1733358619381756]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":58.24834003919557,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-23189","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Cienaga De Oro","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.5206635793422834,1.7544930277972703,2.7310420450262107],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-23189|2023|Ordinary election|4595","CO-CON-23189|2019|Ordinary election|4596","CO-CON-23189|2015|Ordinary election|4597"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-23189|2023|Ordinary election|4595","CO-CON-23189|2019|Ordinary election|4596","CO-CON-23189|2015|Ordinary election|4597"],"shares":[[0.20264962776247142,0.17744299196904859],[0.19976810179110852,0.18222317151313583],[0.1937429325292122,0.1664325120789501]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":88.44074869776414,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-23300|2023|Ordinary election|4598","CO-CON-23300|2019|Ordinary election|4599","CO-CON-23300|2015|Ordinary election|4600"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-23300|2023|Ordinary election|4598","CO-CON-23300|2019|Ordinary election|4599","CO-CON-23300|2015|Ordinary election|4600"],"shares":[[0.4609133755891435,0.16146595156834065],[0.30431837425910246,0.2018628281117697],[0.4406810360441949,0.2997645354102518]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-23350","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"La Apartada (Frontera)","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.5081857667891754,9.963533701917424,21.922596754057427],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-23350|2023|Ordinary election|4601","CO-CON-23350|2019|Ordinary election|4602","CO-CON-23350|2015|Ordinary election|4603"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-23350|2023|Ordinary election|4601","CO-CON-23350|2019|Ordinary election|4602","CO-CON-23350|2015|Ordinary election|4603"],"shares":[[0.3072725247800423,0.27219066711215056],[0.2845547582637337,0.18491942124455946],[0.39026217228464416,0.17103620474406991]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":63.56884376972762,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-23417","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Lorica","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[29.35094410995177,5.30615533354818,6.987162461266047],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-23417|2023|Ordinary election|4604","CO-CON-23417|2019|Ordinary election|4605","CO-CON-23417|2015|Ordinary election|4606"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-23417|2023|Ordinary election|4604","CO-CON-23417|2019|Ordinary election|4605","CO-CON-23417|2015|Ordinary election|4606"],"shares":[[0.41770954827727513,0.12420010717775747],[0.2761521108604576,0.2230905575249758],[0.21687472332890662,0.14700309871624614]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0.4943534391893989,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-23419","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Los Cordobas","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.980540726709144,24.19530553629791,18.88352860096485],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-23419|2023|Ordinary election|4607","CO-CON-23419|2019|Ordinary election|4608","CO-CON-23419|2015|Ordinary election|4609"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-23419|2023|Ordinary election|4607","CO-CON-23419|2019|Ordinary election|4608","CO-CON-23419|2015|Ordinary election|4609"],"shares":[[0.30790425348717065,0.21809884622007922],[0.41913439635535304,0.17718134099237395],[0.34332644153457387,0.15449115552492534]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":27.323655214943287,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-23464","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Momil","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.17668655346489,1.3770902262362519,4.779449391055163],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-23464|2023|Ordinary election|4610","CO-CON-23464|2019|Ordinary election|4611","CO-CON-23464|2015|Ordinary election|4612"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-23464|2023|Ordinary election|4610","CO-CON-23464|2019|Ordinary election|4611","CO-CON-23464|2015|Ordinary election|4612"],"shares":[[0.24102799449288664,0.18926112895823774],[0.24045426093177144,0.22668335866940892],[0.22577013611708113,0.1779756422065295]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.01458030472337,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-23466|2023|Ordinary election|4613","CO-CON-23466|2019|Ordinary election|4614","CO-CON-23466|2015|Ordinary election|4615"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-23466|2023|Ordinary election|4613","CO-CON-23466|2019|Ordinary election|4614","CO-CON-23466|2015|Ordinary election|4615"],"shares":[[0.16815012045137567,0.16655255483707368],[0.23630483689538806,0.14285714285714288],[0.20363180581455778,0.20155299440555166]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":85.3996356395223,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-23500","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Moñitos","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.328501811820569,4.721540634991451,16.06063049262275],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-23500|2023|Ordinary election|4616","CO-CON-23500|2019|Ordinary election|4617","CO-CON-23500|2015|Ordinary election|4618"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-23500|2023|Ordinary election|4616","CO-CON-23500|2019|Ordinary election|4617","CO-CON-23500|2015|Ordinary election|4618"],"shares":[[0.2762089216543796,0.20292390353617393],[0.20090713064168342,0.15369172429176892],[0.2897686043699105,0.129162299443683]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":62.901868365739745,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-23555|2023|Ordinary election|4619","CO-CON-23555|2019|Ordinary election|4620","CO-CON-23555|2015|Ordinary election|4621"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-23555|2023|Ordinary election|4619","CO-CON-23555|2019|Ordinary election|4620","CO-CON-23555|2015|Ordinary election|4621"],"shares":[[0.1923682683540107,0.15683457213119284],[0.24437375509111992,0.19410173321045276],[0.2590524229868492,0.16330390920554855]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":77.01166216198955,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-23570","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Pueblo Nuevo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.2402277772415786,0.2935739915189721,13.787239033544456],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-23570|2023|Ordinary election|4622","CO-CON-23570|2019|Ordinary election|4623","CO-CON-23570|2015|Ordinary election|4624"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-23570|2023|Ordinary election|4622","CO-CON-23570|2019|Ordinary election|4623","CO-CON-23570|2015|Ordinary election|4624"],"shares":[[0.2903194672328926,0.27791718946047683],[0.28705012504077415,0.28411438512558446],[0.3579052310579404,0.22003284072249588]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":88.94533616422457,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-23574|2023|Ordinary election|4625","CO-CON-23574|2019|Ordinary election|4626","CO-CON-23574|2015|Ordinary election|4627"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-23574|2023|Ordinary election|4625","CO-CON-23574|2019|Ordinary election|4626","CO-CON-23574|2015|Ordinary election|4627"],"shares":[[0.26424942584731015,0.21295845222353676],[0.29020421186981493,0.2175335035098915],[0.33917929507917594,0.1840626596288098]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":65.95626988636116,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-23580","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Puerto Libertador","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.3005573817350289,0.06389095942924072,0.18284878405558658],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-23580|2023|Ordinary election|4628","CO-CON-23580|2019|Ordinary election|4629","CO-CON-23580|2015|Ordinary election|4630"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-23580|2023|Ordinary election|4628","CO-CON-23580|2019|Ordinary election|4629","CO-CON-23580|2015|Ordinary election|4630"],"shares":[[0.1277214044114144,0.11471583059406414],[0.12378873389415398,0.12314982429986157],[0.15505576887913697,0.1532272810385811]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":95.91106702362326,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-23586|2023|Ordinary election|4631","CO-CON-23586|2019|Ordinary election|4632","CO-CON-23586|2015|Ordinary election|4633"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-23586|2023|Ordinary election|4631","CO-CON-23586|2019|Ordinary election|4632","CO-CON-23586|2015|Ordinary election|4633"],"shares":[[0.250280164363093,0.24626447515875982],[0.28370181960477403,0.19311289375855994],[0.44612394731159577,0.2215504210753617]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":73.97827804995623,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-23660|2023|Ordinary election|4634","CO-CON-23660|2019|Ordinary election|4635","CO-CON-23660|2015|Ordinary election|4636"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-23660|2023|Ordinary election|4634","CO-CON-23660|2019|Ordinary election|4635","CO-CON-23660|2015|Ordinary election|4636"],"shares":[[0.2180212314225053,0.13481104033970276],[0.2268789296680801,0.1272298581663986],[0.21669066341787574,0.19762247572636318]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":59.13617256533138,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-23670|2023|Ordinary election|4637","CO-CON-23670|2019|Ordinary election|4638","CO-CON-23670|2015|Ordinary election|4639"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-23670|2023|Ordinary election|4637","CO-CON-23670|2019|Ordinary election|4638","CO-CON-23670|2015|Ordinary election|4639"],"shares":[[0.15452797056610085,0.1413997825905176],[0.2182758125508592,0.21334545976736394],[0.3258264976385782,0.29400944568729803]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":93.73113809223673,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-23672","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"San Antero","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.6482134980149965,8.92803999761919,13.706589198468244],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-23672|2023|Ordinary election|4640","CO-CON-23672|2019|Ordinary election|4641","CO-CON-23672|2015|Ordinary election|4642"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-23672|2023|Ordinary election|4640","CO-CON-23672|2019|Ordinary election|4641","CO-CON-23672|2015|Ordinary election|4642"],"shares":[[0.22717247463608292,0.18069033965593295],[0.2508184036664484,0.16153800369025653],[0.3085303050310313,0.17146441304634888]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":65.8100049102921,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-23675","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"San Bernardo Del Viento","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.8808613192225074,3.9475982532751086,5.68786266924565],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-23675|2023|Ordinary election|4643","CO-CON-23675|2019|Ordinary election|4644","CO-CON-23675|2015|Ordinary election|4645"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-23675|2023|Ordinary election|4643","CO-CON-23675|2019|Ordinary election|4644","CO-CON-23675|2015|Ordinary election|4645"],"shares":[[0.1553937234767119,0.13658511028448683],[0.1958660844250364,0.1563901018922853],[0.19312137330754353,0.13624274661508703]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":85.59208732779699,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[6.313197464242679,15.53937234767119,13.092680882275895,0.07334835228165767,0,0,9.06899984282496,10.001571750406036,3.5207209095195684,0,42.390108450778015],[0.5240174672489083,13.496360989810771,11.569141193595343,9.030567685589519,0,2.037845705967977,10.38136826783115,19.58660844250364,15.63901018922853,15.50509461426492,2.2299854439592433],[10.994922630560929,13.624274661508704,19.312137330754354,8.08752417794971,3.3365570599613155,4.146518375241779,5.458172147001934,4.055851063829787,12.070841392649903,8.238636363636363,10.674564796905223]],"volatility_latest":49.51585405035351,"volatility_previous":32.23162405435006,"volatility_mean":40.87373905235178,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-23678","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"San Carlos","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.556431480751545,4.504297114794351,1.123880344769308],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-23678|2023|Ordinary election|4646","CO-CON-23678|2019|Ordinary election|4647","CO-CON-23678|2015|Ordinary election|4648"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-23678|2023|Ordinary election|4646","CO-CON-23678|2019|Ordinary election|4647","CO-CON-23678|2015|Ordinary election|4648"],"shares":[[0.3504795690448036,0.19491525423728814],[0.2669582565991406,0.22191528545119707],[0.22249450735169848,0.2112557039040054]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":46.01231971316919,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-23682","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"San Jose De Ure","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.644273832373642,5.106546362065654,4.664845555789032],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-23682|2023|Ordinary election|4649","CO-CON-23682|2019|Ordinary election|4650","CO-CON-23682|2015|Ordinary election|4651"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-23682|2023|Ordinary election|4649","CO-CON-23682|2019|Ordinary election|4650","CO-CON-23682|2015|Ordinary election|4651"],"shares":[[0.29878438899552145,0.182341650671785],[0.22921866001151853,0.17815319639086197],[0.17734818239125869,0.13069972683336836]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":55.07493618188608,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-23686|2023|Ordinary election|4652","CO-CON-23686|2019|Ordinary election|4653","CO-CON-23686|2015|Ordinary election|4654"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-23686|2023|Ordinary election|4652","CO-CON-23686|2019|Ordinary election|4653","CO-CON-23686|2015|Ordinary election|4654"],"shares":[[0.34238921674756434,0.22743304117051366],[0.259152288072018,0.24561140285071267],[0.31745966244377505,0.17781537572731398]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":56.499800207865945,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-23807|2023|Ordinary election|4655","CO-CON-23807|2019|Ordinary election|4656","CO-CON-23807|2015|Ordinary election|4657"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-23807|2023|Ordinary election|4655","CO-CON-23807|2019|Ordinary election|4656","CO-CON-23807|2015|Ordinary election|4657"],"shares":[[0.1830379915278671,0.15360730998691477],[0.17428822152886117,0.12894890795631825],[0.1929810209424084,0.14416993891797555]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":81.92934440061123,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-23855|2023|Ordinary election|4661","CO-CON-23855|2019|Ordinary election|4662","CO-CON-23855|2015|Ordinary election|4663"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-23855|2023|Ordinary election|4661","CO-CON-23855|2019|Ordinary election|4662","CO-CON-23855|2015|Ordinary election|4663"],"shares":[[0.2067123509415637,0.18885231748772457],[0.3224554595166696,0.1862174398776974],[0.25539864479766955,0.20321702235450573]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":71.59720589584424,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25001","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Agua De Dios","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.2638676064970866,3.6311586560192843,1.6674532011955314],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25001|2023|Ordinary election|4664","CO-CON-25001|2019|Ordinary election|4665","CO-CON-25001|2015|Ordinary election|4666"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25001|2023|Ordinary election|4664","CO-CON-25001|2019|Ordinary election|4665","CO-CON-25001|2015|Ordinary election|4666"],"shares":[[0.2129941771376034,0.18035550107263254],[0.2446888654512581,0.20837727889106525],[0.2284096271826333,0.21173509517067798]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":83.92793259588206,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25019","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Alban","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.5516840882694538,3.6596809508914596,18.566061365059486],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25019|2023|Ordinary election|4667","CO-CON-25019|2019|Ordinary election|4668","CO-CON-25019|2015|Ordinary election|4669"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25019|2023|Ordinary election|4667","CO-CON-25019|2019|Ordinary election|4668","CO-CON-25019|2015|Ordinary election|4669"],"shares":[[0.1800232288037166,0.17450638792102208],[0.20269002189552704,0.16609321238661245],[0.31465247338760177,0.1289918597370069]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":83.5723956263247,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25035|2023|Ordinary election|4670","CO-CON-25035|2019|Ordinary election|4671","CO-CON-25035|2015|Ordinary election|4672"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25035|2023|Ordinary election|4670","CO-CON-25035|2019|Ordinary election|4671","CO-CON-25035|2015|Ordinary election|4672"],"shares":[[0.42811735941320295,0.1997555012224939],[0.36739659367396593,0.16896458502297917],[0.33820868516284686,0.3071471652593486]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0.17356524996436917,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25040","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Anolaima","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.308771929824559,5.446224256292904,19.802989130434785],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25040|2023|Ordinary election|4673","CO-CON-25040|2019|Ordinary election|4674","CO-CON-25040|2015|Ordinary election|4675"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25040|2023|Ordinary election|4673","CO-CON-25040|2019|Ordinary election|4674","CO-CON-25040|2015|Ordinary election|4675"],"shares":[[0.2593684210526316,0.216280701754386],[0.24668192219679633,0.19221967963386727],[0.3571671195652174,0.15913722826086957]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":69.00285326086959,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25053|2023|Ordinary election|4676","CO-CON-25053|2019|Ordinary election|4677","CO-CON-25053|2015|Ordinary election|4678"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25053|2023|Ordinary election|4676","CO-CON-25053|2019|Ordinary election|4677","CO-CON-25053|2015|Ordinary election|4678"],"shares":[[0.15559645307010206,0.12899447883553622],[0.29473304473304474,0.16305916305916304],[0.42879886785777466,0.18485759773571556]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":60.07126197244504,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25086","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Beltran","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.335928809788655,1.0995723885155755,6.753069577080492],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25086|2023|Ordinary election|4679","CO-CON-25086|2019|Ordinary election|4680","CO-CON-25086|2015|Ordinary election|4681"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25086|2023|Ordinary election|4679","CO-CON-25086|2019|Ordinary election|4680","CO-CON-25086|2015|Ordinary election|4681"],"shares":[[0.26028921023359286,0.23692992213570632],[0.3133781307269395,0.30238240684178375],[0.3226466575716235,0.2551159618008186]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.96632019932042,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25095","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Bituima","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.16474464579901138,5.093676814988292,12.567324955116696],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25095|2023|Ordinary election|4682","CO-CON-25095|2019|Ordinary election|4683","CO-CON-25095|2015|Ordinary election|4684"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25095|2023|Ordinary election|4682","CO-CON-25095|2019|Ordinary election|4683","CO-CON-25095|2015|Ordinary election|4684"],"shares":[[0.20428336079077428,0.20263591433278416],[0.2927400468384075,0.24180327868852458],[0.32375822860562536,0.1980849790544584]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":85.58158836256217,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25099","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Bojaca","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.9345620211223853,0.9084865942831826,5.882352941176471],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25099|2023|Ordinary election|4685","CO-CON-25099|2019|Ordinary election|4686","CO-CON-25099|2015|Ordinary election|4687"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25099|2023|Ordinary election|4685","CO-CON-25099|2019|Ordinary election|4686","CO-CON-25099|2015|Ordinary election|4687"],"shares":[[0.15075585007247877,0.11141022986125491],[0.22601373808996233,0.2169288721471305],[0.21403260099220411,0.1552090715804394]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":83.89240757461984,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25120","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Cabrera","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.4389312977099245,11.238532110091743,5.555555555555557],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25120|2023|Ordinary election|4688","CO-CON-25120|2019|Ordinary election|4689","CO-CON-25120|2015|Ordinary election|4690"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25120|2023|Ordinary election|4688","CO-CON-25120|2019|Ordinary election|4689","CO-CON-25120|2015|Ordinary election|4690"],"shares":[[0.29341603053435117,0.2390267175572519],[0.36834862385321104,0.2559633027522936],[0.4314314314314314,0.37587587587587584]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":64.04763016395484,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25123|2023|Ordinary election|4691","CO-CON-25123|2019|Ordinary election|4692","CO-CON-25123|2015|Ordinary election|4693"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25123|2023|Ordinary election|4691","CO-CON-25123|2019|Ordinary election|4692","CO-CON-25123|2015|Ordinary election|4693"],"shares":[[0.20056685561853949,0.17072357452484163],[0.21773382500838082,0.16342608112638285],[0.29911254538120213,0.13311819281968534]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":74.60113646151511,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25126|2023|Ordinary election|4694","CO-CON-25126|2019|Ordinary election|4695","CO-CON-25126|2015|Ordinary election|4696"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25126|2023|Ordinary election|4694","CO-CON-25126|2019|Ordinary election|4695","CO-CON-25126|2015|Ordinary election|4696"],"shares":[[0.12521150592216582,0.11623063907327866],[0.13846210125841382,0.1264998536728124],[0.18549739195231,0.13287071535022354]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":92.88006897738931,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25148|2023|Ordinary election|4697","CO-CON-25148|2019|Ordinary election|4698","CO-CON-25148|2015|Ordinary election|4699"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25148|2023|Ordinary election|4697","CO-CON-25148|2019|Ordinary election|4698","CO-CON-25148|2015|Ordinary election|4699"],"shares":[[0.2740959180505975,0.21558280304206115],[0.2530221625251847,0.18687038280725318],[0.2456560814859197,0.22168963451168364]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":71.32497619103755,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25151|2023|Ordinary election|4700","CO-CON-25151|2019|Ordinary election|4701","CO-CON-25151|2015|Ordinary election|4702"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25151|2023|Ordinary election|4700","CO-CON-25151|2019|Ordinary election|4701","CO-CON-25151|2015|Ordinary election|4702"],"shares":[[0.19365151861155513,0.17366978762274493],[0.2263301339021211,0.18450053323853538],[0.2819459997511509,0.19808386213761353]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":83.5379337231422,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25154","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Carmen De Carupa","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.8992176714219973,3.5083643122676555,3.937381404174573],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25154|2023|Ordinary election|4703","CO-CON-25154|2019|Ordinary election|4704","CO-CON-25154|2015|Ordinary election|4705"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25154|2023|Ordinary election|4703","CO-CON-25154|2019|Ordinary election|4704","CO-CON-25154|2015|Ordinary election|4705"],"shares":[[0.24390243902439024,0.21491026231017027],[0.2704460966542751,0.23536245353159851],[0.2236717267552182,0.18429791271347248]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":84.07110981524524,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25168|2023|Ordinary election|4706","CO-CON-25168|2019|Ordinary election|4707","CO-CON-25168|2015|Ordinary election|4708"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25168|2023|Ordinary election|4706","CO-CON-25168|2019|Ordinary election|4707","CO-CON-25168|2015|Ordinary election|4708"],"shares":[[0.309375,0.1579861111111111],[0.20943025540275048,0.19096267190569743],[0.34603421461897355,0.19595645412130636]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":44.30930778389202,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25175|2023|Ordinary election|4709","CO-CON-25175|2019|Ordinary election|4710","CO-CON-25175|2015|Ordinary election|4711"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25175|2023|Ordinary election|4709","CO-CON-25175|2019|Ordinary election|4710","CO-CON-25175|2015|Ordinary election|4711"],"shares":[[0.11301192327630898,0.09139450492483152],[0.1185578279967404,0.10581758193707393],[0.10616088374130127,0.10058883643972942]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":91.3251352205282,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25178","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Chipaque","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.60119840213049,2.215526409074794,3.0714151121160747],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25178|2023|Ordinary election|4712","CO-CON-25178|2019|Ordinary election|4713","CO-CON-25178|2015|Ordinary election|4714"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25178|2023|Ordinary election|4712","CO-CON-25178|2019|Ordinary election|4713","CO-CON-25178|2015|Ordinary election|4714"],"shares":[[0.2536617842876165,0.1376498002663116],[0.24034030485643387,0.21818504076568593],[0.3037497644620313,0.2730356133408705]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":60.3374076239383,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25181","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Choachi","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.408212560386474,12.01530612244898,0.8673938756735495],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25181|2023|Ordinary election|4715","CO-CON-25181|2019|Ordinary election|4716","CO-CON-25181|2015|Ordinary election|4717"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25181|2023|Ordinary election|4715","CO-CON-25181|2019|Ordinary election|4716","CO-CON-25181|2015|Ordinary election|4717"],"shares":[[0.38961352657004833,0.2955314009661836],[0.37117346938775514,0.2510204081632653],[0.3987383361808385,0.390064397424103]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":53.31870619733034,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25183","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Choconta","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.8599864721229089,0.08406893652795411,10.83743842364532],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25183|2023|Ordinary election|4718","CO-CON-25183|2019|Ordinary election|4719","CO-CON-25183|2015|Ordinary election|4720"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25183|2023|Ordinary election|4718","CO-CON-25183|2019|Ordinary election|4719","CO-CON-25183|2015|Ordinary election|4720"],"shares":[[0.1774084452604116,0.16880858053918252],[0.15437158469945356,0.15353089533417402],[0.27297849333173135,0.16460410909527817]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":91.87521796701668,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25200|2023|Ordinary election|4721","CO-CON-25200|2019|Ordinary election|4722","CO-CON-25200|2015|Ordinary election|4723"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25200|2023|Ordinary election|4721","CO-CON-25200|2019|Ordinary election|4722","CO-CON-25200|2015|Ordinary election|4723"],"shares":[[0.15694282380396732,0.13973162193698951],[0.19269547325102881,0.13765432098765432],[0.21299722479185937,0.20351526364477338]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.10636854304619,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25214|2023|Ordinary election|4724","CO-CON-25214|2019|Ordinary election|4725","CO-CON-25214|2015|Ordinary election|4726"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25214|2023|Ordinary election|4724","CO-CON-25214|2019|Ordinary election|4725","CO-CON-25214|2015|Ordinary election|4726"],"shares":[[0.12552690644331307,0.11786281272239557],[0.1597322154789464,0.09847963461177502],[0.14783398970009087,0.14245683126325356]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":88.24402683180718,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25224|2023|Ordinary election|4727","CO-CON-25224|2019|Ordinary election|4728","CO-CON-25224|2015|Ordinary election|4729"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25224|2023|Ordinary election|4727","CO-CON-25224|2019|Ordinary election|4728","CO-CON-25224|2015|Ordinary election|4729"],"shares":[[0.3167546540705752,0.22672964712420118],[0.3053827427644036,0.21612117933459563],[0.48562874251497007,0.18652694610778442]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":44.64817358125733,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25245","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"El Colegio","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.295680802696559,0.3770620581304023,2.2881272709417644],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25245|2023|Ordinary election|4730","CO-CON-25245|2019|Ordinary election|4731","CO-CON-25245|2015|Ordinary election|4732"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25245|2023|Ordinary election|4730","CO-CON-25245|2019|Ordinary election|4731","CO-CON-25245|2015|Ordinary election|4732"],"shares":[[0.23657599749157324,0.19361918946460766],[0.17305577376276512,0.16928515318146112],[0.19483452813512717,0.17195325542570952]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":85.40330086924384,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25258","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"El Peñon","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[38.94412067192321,11.474316210807203,2.7943368107302504],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25258|2023|Ordinary election|4733","CO-CON-25258|2019|Ordinary election|4734","CO-CON-25258|2015|Ordinary election|4735"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25258|2023|Ordinary election|4733","CO-CON-25258|2019|Ordinary election|4734","CO-CON-25258|2015|Ordinary election|4735"],"shares":[[0.5920466232430579,0.20260541652382585],[0.5573715810540361,0.442628418945964],[0.434053651266766,0.4061102831594635]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25260|2023|Ordinary election|4736","CO-CON-25260|2019|Ordinary election|4737","CO-CON-25260|2015|Ordinary election|4738"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25260|2023|Ordinary election|4736","CO-CON-25260|2019|Ordinary election|4737","CO-CON-25260|2015|Ordinary election|4738"],"shares":[[0.1293297806927649,0.10832137733142037],[0.1623448693371002,0.16113409343154073],[0.23779217773663505,0.14637815320527656]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":88.94516137919479,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25269","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Facatativa","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.8104535208038826,2.1195247245206073,3.243115623189029],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25269|2023|Ordinary election|4739","CO-CON-25269|2019|Ordinary election|4740","CO-CON-25269|2015|Ordinary election|4741"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25269|2023|Ordinary election|4739","CO-CON-25269|2019|Ordinary election|4740","CO-CON-25269|2015|Ordinary election|4741"],"shares":[[0.15004011767852365,0.08193558247048484],[0.1298380455668405,0.10864279832163444],[0.1362280268721427,0.1037968706402524]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":74.76779453921293,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25279","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Fomeque","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.336391437308869,4.815146094215862,4.788268741583121],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25279|2023|Ordinary election|4742","CO-CON-25279|2019|Ordinary election|4743","CO-CON-25279|2015|Ordinary election|4744"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25279|2023|Ordinary election|4742","CO-CON-25279|2019|Ordinary election|4743","CO-CON-25279|2015|Ordinary election|4744"],"shares":[[0.3099388379204893,0.25657492354740064],[0.2881633870005963,0.24001192605843769],[0.3083944336375879,0.2605117462217567]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":74.37397217595803,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25281|2023|Ordinary election|4745","CO-CON-25281|2019|Ordinary election|4746","CO-CON-25281|2015|Ordinary election|4747"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25281|2023|Ordinary election|4745","CO-CON-25281|2019|Ordinary election|4746","CO-CON-25281|2015|Ordinary election|4747"],"shares":[[0.38074074074074077,0.28197530864197534],[0.42004532863258626,0.3512969025434399],[0.33772269558481793,0.23702556158017044]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":55.02324975676605,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25286|2023|Ordinary election|4748","CO-CON-25286|2019|Ordinary election|4749","CO-CON-25286|2015|Ordinary election|4750"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25286|2023|Ordinary election|4748","CO-CON-25286|2019|Ordinary election|4749","CO-CON-25286|2015|Ordinary election|4750"],"shares":[[0.15089015443024986,0.14360474064953055],[0.14435553633217993,0.14308499134948097],[0.1562150563631418,0.14965698570521926]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":97.29589058548324,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25288","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Fuquene","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.9517558254020351,14.52870304748405,0.5450581395348806],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25288|2023|Ordinary election|4751","CO-CON-25288|2019|Ordinary election|4752","CO-CON-25288|2015|Ordinary election|4753"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25288|2023|Ordinary election|4751","CO-CON-25288|2019|Ordinary election|4752","CO-CON-25288|2015|Ordinary election|4753"],"shares":[[0.23006235641614706,0.2205447981621267],[0.3175053153791637,0.1722182849043232],[0.21475290697674418,0.20930232558139536]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.07914888280038,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25290","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Fusagasuga","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.9424774846506363,4.553318504154072,2.236470332536406],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25290|2023|Ordinary election|4754","CO-CON-25290|2019|Ordinary election|4755","CO-CON-25290|2015|Ordinary election|4756"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25290|2023|Ordinary election|4754","CO-CON-25290|2019|Ordinary election|4755","CO-CON-25290|2015|Ordinary election|4756"],"shares":[[0.1238742325318046,0.09444945768529824],[0.172265632426472,0.12673244738493128],[0.18532927624429474,0.16296457291893066]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":83.22435462354878,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25293","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Gachala","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.8232872684504535,12.201885745978927,13.746548020865301],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25293|2023|Ordinary election|4757","CO-CON-25293|2019|Ordinary election|4758","CO-CON-25293|2015|Ordinary election|4759"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25293|2023|Ordinary election|4757","CO-CON-25293|2019|Ordinary election|4758","CO-CON-25293|2015|Ordinary election|4759"],"shares":[[0.3257865333725375,0.3175536606880329],[0.3813089295618414,0.2592900721020521],[0.3841669223688248,0.2467014421601718]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":72.3540355652476,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25295","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Gachancipa","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.304523970290346,4.203910614525141,1.02890739833415],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25295|2023|Ordinary election|4760","CO-CON-25295|2019|Ordinary election|4761","CO-CON-25295|2015|Ordinary election|4762"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25295|2023|Ordinary election|4760","CO-CON-25295|2019|Ordinary election|4761","CO-CON-25295|2015|Ordinary election|4762"],"shares":[[0.19500337609723162,0.10195813639432816],[0.16131284916201116,0.11927374301675978],[0.15988894332843379,0.14959986934509228]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":65.26610846817418,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25297","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Gacheta","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.4751552795031024,2.918855808523059,3.4269774855548896],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25297|2023|Ordinary election|4763","CO-CON-25297|2019|Ordinary election|4764","CO-CON-25297|2015|Ordinary election|4765"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25297|2023|Ordinary election|4763","CO-CON-25297|2019|Ordinary election|4764","CO-CON-25297|2015|Ordinary election|4765"],"shares":[[0.19060559006211178,0.17585403726708076],[0.2084063047285464,0.17921774664331583],[0.21159593544530783,0.17732616058975892]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":89.48276170592865,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25299|2023|Ordinary election|4766","CO-CON-25299|2019|Ordinary election|4767","CO-CON-25299|2015|Ordinary election|4768"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25299|2023|Ordinary election|4766","CO-CON-25299|2019|Ordinary election|4767","CO-CON-25299|2015|Ordinary election|4768"],"shares":[[0.287089715536105,0.19431072210065647],[0.3796660117878193,0.1949901768172888],[0.26258096661684105,0.22521175884404585]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":42.5964663351461,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25307|2023|Ordinary election|4769","CO-CON-25307|2019|Ordinary election|4770","CO-CON-25307|2015|Ordinary election|4771"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25307|2023|Ordinary election|4769","CO-CON-25307|2019|Ordinary election|4770","CO-CON-25307|2015|Ordinary election|4771"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.11327920102389795,0.11269171859591699],[0.158841292920255,0.1168325690638631]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25312|2023|Ordinary election|4772","CO-CON-25312|2019|Ordinary election|4773","CO-CON-25312|2015|Ordinary election|4774"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25312|2023|Ordinary election|4772","CO-CON-25312|2019|Ordinary election|4773","CO-CON-25312|2015|Ordinary election|4774"],"shares":[[0.22673085740486015,0.19967904630903255],[0.24934818677411708,0.20526191040530933],[0.21694270974748847,0.17349986424110778]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":83.09937294061152,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25317|2023|Ordinary election|4775","CO-CON-25317|2019|Ordinary election|4776","CO-CON-25317|2015|Ordinary election|4777"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25317|2023|Ordinary election|4775","CO-CON-25317|2019|Ordinary election|4776","CO-CON-25317|2015|Ordinary election|4777"],"shares":[[0.21245230662504336,0.1949358307318765],[0.26179577464788734,0.1681338028169014],[0.2662733155690902,0.2162162162162162]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":78.19290648975836,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25320|2023|Ordinary election|4778","CO-CON-25320|2019|Ordinary election|4779","CO-CON-25320|2015|Ordinary election|4780"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25320|2023|Ordinary election|4778","CO-CON-25320|2019|Ordinary election|4779","CO-CON-25320|2015|Ordinary election|4780"],"shares":[[0.2342507645259939,0.2312691131498471],[0.24907178217821785,0.17581992574257427],[0.31387384517362216,0.2841669321439949]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.63238047032806,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25322|2023|Ordinary election|4781","CO-CON-25322|2019|Ordinary election|4782","CO-CON-25322|2015|Ordinary election|4783"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25322|2023|Ordinary election|4781","CO-CON-25322|2019|Ordinary election|4782","CO-CON-25322|2015|Ordinary election|4783"],"shares":[[0.17754719700244992,0.1517509727626459],[0.1717809425928645,0.13419468506827192],[0.30564784053156147,0.20143381710089175]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":81.41249292783644,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25324|2023|Ordinary election|4784","CO-CON-25324|2019|Ordinary election|4785","CO-CON-25324|2015|Ordinary election|4786"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25324|2023|Ordinary election|4784","CO-CON-25324|2019|Ordinary election|4785","CO-CON-25324|2015|Ordinary election|4786"],"shares":[[0.28,0.15170731707317073],[0.17868504772004243,0.17444326617179215],[0.22130102040816324,0.20344387755102042]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":59.98307074685654,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25326","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Guatavita","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.0179350460494412,8.799791720906015,12.195812110922468],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25326|2023|Ordinary election|4787","CO-CON-25326|2019|Ordinary election|4788","CO-CON-25326|2015|Ordinary election|4789"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25326|2023|Ordinary election|4787","CO-CON-25326|2019|Ordinary election|4788","CO-CON-25326|2015|Ordinary election|4789"],"shares":[[0.20407174018419777,0.19389238972370337],[0.2715438687841708,0.18354595157511064],[0.3140916808149406,0.1921335597057159]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":77.64860122503143,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25328","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Guayabal De Siquima","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[25.056433408577877,14.08751334044824,19.337474120082817],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25328|2023|Ordinary election|4790","CO-CON-25328|2019|Ordinary election|4791","CO-CON-25328|2015|Ordinary election|4792"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25328|2023|Ordinary election|4790","CO-CON-25328|2019|Ordinary election|4791","CO-CON-25328|2015|Ordinary election|4792"],"shares":[[0.45598194130925507,0.2054176072234763],[0.3344005691924582,0.1935254357879758],[0.46045548654244306,0.2670807453416149]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25335|2023|Ordinary election|4793","CO-CON-25335|2019|Ordinary election|4794","CO-CON-25335|2015|Ordinary election|4795"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25335|2023|Ordinary election|4793","CO-CON-25335|2019|Ordinary election|4794","CO-CON-25335|2015|Ordinary election|4795"],"shares":[[0.23874133949191687,0.174364896073903],[0.2977346278317152,0.2636069432185937],[0.29750982961992134,0.26965923984272605]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":74.17538479376785,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25339|2023|Ordinary election|4796","CO-CON-25339|2019|Ordinary election|4797","CO-CON-25339|2015|Ordinary election|4798"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25339|2023|Ordinary election|4796","CO-CON-25339|2019|Ordinary election|4797","CO-CON-25339|2015|Ordinary election|4798"],"shares":[[0.3953379953379953,0.3132867132867133],[0.3754249635745508,0.36668285575522097],[0.39170731707317075,0.235609756097561]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":66.26842116293543,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25368","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Jerusalen","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.7608178792201628,5.850778314546428,0.9345794392523352],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25368|2023|Ordinary election|4799","CO-CON-25368|2019|Ordinary election|4800","CO-CON-25368|2015|Ordinary election|4801"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25368|2023|Ordinary election|4799","CO-CON-25368|2019|Ordinary election|4800","CO-CON-25368|2015|Ordinary election|4801"],"shares":[[0.258678078934855,0.25106990014265335],[0.25442834138486314,0.19592055823939883],[0.27601246105919003,0.26666666666666666]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":88.4740891708937,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25372","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Junin","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.78175519630485,3.571428571428573,5.83107905019537],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25372|2023|Ordinary election|4802","CO-CON-25372|2019|Ordinary election|4803","CO-CON-25372|2015|Ordinary election|4804"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25372|2023|Ordinary election|4802","CO-CON-25372|2019|Ordinary election|4803","CO-CON-25372|2015|Ordinary election|4804"],"shares":[[0.19341801385681293,0.15560046189376442],[0.24209601873536302,0.20638173302107726],[0.31079050195371205,0.25247971145175835]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.38205202884491,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25377|2023|Ordinary election|4805","CO-CON-25377|2019|Ordinary election|4806","CO-CON-25377|2015|Ordinary election|4807"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25377|2023|Ordinary election|4805","CO-CON-25377|2019|Ordinary election|4806","CO-CON-25377|2015|Ordinary election|4807"],"shares":[[0.19384931615147444,0.1561388252035734],[0.22243226212980466,0.16548519218651545],[0.17940257033692256,0.17158735672108372]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":79.75403154334437,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25386","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"La Mesa","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.9324648611587243,2.6838315513855555,3.354017751944074],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25386|2023|Ordinary election|4808","CO-CON-25386|2019|Ordinary election|4809","CO-CON-25386|2015|Ordinary election|4810"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25386|2023|Ordinary election|4808","CO-CON-25386|2019|Ordinary election|4809","CO-CON-25386|2015|Ordinary election|4810"],"shares":[[0.16962632841960917,0.16030167980802193],[0.19885082551458289,0.17201251000072734],[0.19377896473175713,0.1602387872123164]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":91.49984921347347,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25394","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"La Palma","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.0,1.78222125624864,1.1264961276695615],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25394|2023|Ordinary election|4811","CO-CON-25394|2019|Ordinary election|4812","CO-CON-25394|2015|Ordinary election|4813"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25394|2023|Ordinary election|4811","CO-CON-25394|2019|Ordinary election|4812","CO-CON-25394|2015|Ordinary election|4813"],"shares":[[0.19545945945945944,0.15545945945945946],[0.2486415996522495,0.2308193870897631],[0.2288195259328796,0.21755456465618397]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":84.76342005179227,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25398","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"La Peña","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.117647058823529,0.20618556701030855,2.4828767123287676],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25398|2023|Ordinary election|4814","CO-CON-25398|2019|Ordinary election|4815","CO-CON-25398|2015|Ordinary election|4816"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25398|2023|Ordinary election|4814","CO-CON-25398|2019|Ordinary election|4815","CO-CON-25398|2015|Ordinary election|4816"],"shares":[[0.28286445012787725,0.24168797953964194],[0.2270618556701031,0.225],[0.2694063926940639,0.24457762557077625]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.09634211684957,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25402|2023|Ordinary election|4817","CO-CON-25402|2019|Ordinary election|4818","CO-CON-25402|2015|Ordinary election|4819"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25402|2023|Ordinary election|4817","CO-CON-25402|2019|Ordinary election|4818","CO-CON-25402|2015|Ordinary election|4819"],"shares":[[0.325439453125,0.1715087890625],[0.20060459492140265,0.18295042321644497],[0.20150922302962548,0.19661822247065397]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":50.92812499755778,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25407|2023|Ordinary election|4820","CO-CON-25407|2019|Ordinary election|4821","CO-CON-25407|2015|Ordinary election|4822"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25407|2023|Ordinary election|4820","CO-CON-25407|2019|Ordinary election|4821","CO-CON-25407|2015|Ordinary election|4822"],"shares":[[0.15356803044719317,0.15052331113225498],[0.21497120921305182,0.20652591170825335],[0.26041461006910166,0.143928923988154]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":91.9955052757514,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25426|2023|Ordinary election|4823","CO-CON-25426|2019|Ordinary election|4824","CO-CON-25426|2015|Ordinary election|4825"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25426|2023|Ordinary election|4823","CO-CON-25426|2019|Ordinary election|4824","CO-CON-25426|2015|Ordinary election|4825"],"shares":[[0.26546335020911294,0.1774158045344486],[0.35053037608486015,0.23649951783992285],[0.3666312433581297,0.21307120085015943]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":48.8031054354616,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25430|2023|Ordinary election|4826","CO-CON-25430|2019|Ordinary election|4827","CO-CON-25430|2015|Ordinary election|4828"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25430|2023|Ordinary election|4826","CO-CON-25430|2019|Ordinary election|4827","CO-CON-25430|2015|Ordinary election|4828"],"shares":[[0.12678517168034031,0.11250379823761775],[0.1506031083275342,0.14654372535374624],[0.15985130111524165,0.1449814126394052]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":94.36318609732321,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25436","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Manta","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[28.029766123316794,3.5631035631035637,11.067754522880453],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25436|2023|Ordinary election|4829","CO-CON-25436|2019|Ordinary election|4830","CO-CON-25436|2015|Ordinary election|4831"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25436|2023|Ordinary election|4829","CO-CON-25436|2019|Ordinary election|4830","CO-CON-25436|2015|Ordinary election|4831"],"shares":[[0.49645641389085754,0.2161587526576896],[0.2973692973692974,0.26173826173826176],[0.3678609435970202,0.2571833983682157]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":5.032169023954047,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[17.186392629340894,11.481218993621544,0,0,21.61587526576896,0,0,0,0,0,49.716513111268604],[29.73692973692974,12.687312687312687,26.173826173826175,13.91941391941392,17.216117216117215,0.26640026640026643,0,0,0,0,0],[36.78609435970202,9.045760908123448,25.718339836821567,6.491663710535651,21.35509045760908,0.6030507272082298,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":54.11627116092035,"volatility_previous":11.524788325072112,"volatility_mean":32.82052974299623,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25438","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Medina","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.439528023598822,11.5440414507772,11.42358840200567],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25438|2023|Ordinary election|4832","CO-CON-25438|2019|Ordinary election|4833","CO-CON-25438|2015|Ordinary election|4834"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25438|2023|Ordinary election|4832","CO-CON-25438|2019|Ordinary election|4833","CO-CON-25438|2015|Ordinary election|4834"],"shares":[[0.38242730720606827,0.28803202697008007],[0.43958549222797927,0.3241450777202073],[0.3540440374972749,0.23980815347721823]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":48.6535595520349,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25473|2023|Ordinary election|4835","CO-CON-25473|2019|Ordinary election|4836","CO-CON-25473|2015|Ordinary election|4837"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25473|2023|Ordinary election|4835","CO-CON-25473|2019|Ordinary election|4836","CO-CON-25473|2015|Ordinary election|4837"],"shares":[[0.1220146108457432,0.12117167743748243],[0.20739175781563393,0.18035461182574278],[0.24925530594514086,0.1832257664142981]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":92.39007110249597,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25483","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Nariño","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.1417395306028535,0.5914243469689495,0.7348784624081404],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25483|2023|Ordinary election|4838","CO-CON-25483|2019|Ordinary election|4839","CO-CON-25483|2015|Ordinary election|4840"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25483|2023|Ordinary election|4838","CO-CON-25483|2019|Ordinary election|4839","CO-CON-25483|2015|Ordinary election|4840"],"shares":[[0.16566958122411413,0.12425218591808561],[0.23755544603252832,0.23164120256283882],[0.23120407009609947,0.22385528547201808]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.32020565653394,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25486","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Nemocon","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.3660592874626065,1.3507809202195027,1.1343087292454381],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25486|2023|Ordinary election|4841","CO-CON-25486|2019|Ordinary election|4842","CO-CON-25486|2015|Ordinary election|4843"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25486|2023|Ordinary election|4841","CO-CON-25486|2019|Ordinary election|4842","CO-CON-25486|2015|Ordinary election|4843"],"shares":[[0.13802012510198533,0.11435953222735926],[0.1712396229069931,0.15773181370479808],[0.15781686667762618,0.14647377938517178]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":90.3084963926602,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25488|2023|Ordinary election|4844","CO-CON-25488|2019|Ordinary election|4845","CO-CON-25488|2015|Ordinary election|4846"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25488|2023|Ordinary election|4844","CO-CON-25488|2019|Ordinary election|4845","CO-CON-25488|2015|Ordinary election|4846"],"shares":[[0.34796788760662317,0.2303060712493728],[0.2578616352201258,0.24276729559748428],[0.26147278548559233,0.2508004268943436]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":61.90368621986623,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25489","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Nimaima","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.312051077414207,14.756148395164654,22.921348314606742],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25489|2023|Ordinary election|4847","CO-CON-25489|2019|Ordinary election|4848","CO-CON-25489|2015|Ordinary election|4849"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25489|2023|Ordinary election|4847","CO-CON-25489|2019|Ordinary election|4848","CO-CON-25489|2015|Ordinary election|4849"],"shares":[[0.28731045490822027,0.2541899441340782],[0.3993330554397666,0.25177157148812],[0.4337078651685393,0.20449438202247192]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":56.46895001770702,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25491","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Nocaima","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.8532055122828055,4.607415485278079,1.9055995309293436],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25491|2023|Ordinary election|4850","CO-CON-25491|2019|Ordinary election|4851","CO-CON-25491|2015|Ordinary election|4852"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25491|2023|Ordinary election|4850","CO-CON-25491|2019|Ordinary election|4851","CO-CON-25491|2015|Ordinary election|4852"],"shares":[[0.2306770521270222,0.18214499700419412],[0.2892584514721919,0.24318429661941113],[0.2887716212254471,0.2697156259161536]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":77.5764604697698,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25506|2023|Ordinary election|4853","CO-CON-25506|2019|Ordinary election|4854","CO-CON-25506|2015|Ordinary election|4855"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25506|2023|Ordinary election|4853","CO-CON-25506|2019|Ordinary election|4854","CO-CON-25506|2015|Ordinary election|4855"],"shares":[[0.2850915431560593,0.15300784655623365],[0.2160037002775208,0.20721554116558744],[0.16254940711462448,0.16007905138339923]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":58.93314936670103,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25513|2023|Ordinary election|4856","CO-CON-25513|2019|Ordinary election|4857","CO-CON-25513|2015|Ordinary election|4858"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25513|2023|Ordinary election|4856","CO-CON-25513|2019|Ordinary election|4857","CO-CON-25513|2015|Ordinary election|4858"],"shares":[[0.2609357170026626,0.2314187904146063],[0.23864424410540916,0.19044729542302355],[0.26190954773869346,0.2565829145728643]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":83.6490480629338,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25518|2023|Ordinary election|4859","CO-CON-25518|2019|Ordinary election|4860","CO-CON-25518|2015|Ordinary election|4861"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25518|2023|Ordinary election|4859","CO-CON-25518|2019|Ordinary election|4860","CO-CON-25518|2015|Ordinary election|4861"],"shares":[[0.4125675291441569,0.371907876030708],[0.464025633556656,0.309350422371104],[0.5157041540020263,0.3144208037825059]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":54.53665487715651,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25524|2023|Ordinary election|4862","CO-CON-25524|2019|Ordinary election|4863","CO-CON-25524|2015|Ordinary election|4864"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25524|2023|Ordinary election|4862","CO-CON-25524|2019|Ordinary election|4863","CO-CON-25524|2015|Ordinary election|4864"],"shares":[[0.3112120153684946,0.17603911980440098],[0.3346358792184725,0.2827708703374778],[0.29269188395152407,0.2078589790672053]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":47.42673475440679,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25530|2023|Ordinary election|4865","CO-CON-25530|2019|Ordinary election|4866","CO-CON-25530|2015|Ordinary election|4867"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25530|2023|Ordinary election|4865","CO-CON-25530|2019|Ordinary election|4866","CO-CON-25530|2015|Ordinary election|4867"],"shares":[[0.2262081784386617,0.17323420074349444],[0.22423625254582485,0.19613034623217923],[0.24808743169398906,0.22112932604735885]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":78.54401546207146,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25535","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Pasca","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.1480560979939654,7.509652509652508,2.3126911314984717],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25535|2023|Ordinary election|4868","CO-CON-25535|2019|Ordinary election|4869","CO-CON-25535|2015|Ordinary election|4870"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25535|2023|Ordinary election|4868","CO-CON-25535|2019|Ordinary election|4869","CO-CON-25535|2015|Ordinary election|4870"],"shares":[[0.17237706373158176,0.1508965027516421],[0.22741312741312739,0.15231660231660232],[0.20852446483180428,0.18539755351681958]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":81.13500737579011,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[15.08965027516421,17.237706373158176,14.219776318125334,0,0,6.8169714184271255,8.96502751642109,11.00656843600213,0,0,26.66429966270194],[11.312741312741313,15.231660231660232,12.413127413127413,12.818532818532818,0,10.926640926640927,8.938223938223938,22.74131274131274,0,0,5.617760617760617],[9.709480122324159,20.85244648318043,18.539755351681958,11.10474006116208,5.198776758409786,5.1796636085626915,10.95183486238532,0,7.033639143730887,5.2370030581039755,6.192660550458716]],"volatility_latest":28.66294663205723,"volatility_previous":31.80534400717887,"volatility_mean":30.23414531961805,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25572","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Puerto Salgar","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.46203649205415,0.606336213430346,4.10691003911343],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25572|2023|Ordinary election|4871","CO-CON-25572|2019|Ordinary election|4872","CO-CON-25572|2015|Ordinary election|4873"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25572|2023|Ordinary election|4871","CO-CON-25572|2019|Ordinary election|4872","CO-CON-25572|2015|Ordinary election|4873"],"shares":[[0.25853443201883464,0.1539140670982931],[0.19645293315143245,0.190389571017129],[0.3005215123859192,0.25945241199478486]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":65.65093118413532,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[12.9635079458505,25.85344320188346,7.09240729841083,8.519717480871101,3.9434961742201295,1.4714537963507945,0,14.199529134785168,0,0,25.956444967628016],[4.592996816734879,19.645293315143245,19.0389571017129,3.168106715173564,11.535546460512354,13.475822343489465,4.259511899348189,13.581931180839776,0,6.502955889040473,4.198878278005154],[0,25.945241199478488,22.702086049543677,0,11.848109517601044,0,0,0,0,6.225554106910039,33.279009126466754]],"volatility_latest":42.30543642512163,"volatility_previous":39.35577073771631,"volatility_mean":40.83060358141897,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25580","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Puli","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.724288840262584,13.364779874213834,16.844919786096256],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25580|2023|Ordinary election|4874","CO-CON-25580|2019|Ordinary election|4875","CO-CON-25580|2015|Ordinary election|4876"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25580|2023|Ordinary election|4874","CO-CON-25580|2019|Ordinary election|4875","CO-CON-25580|2015|Ordinary election|4876"],"shares":[[0.40590809628008756,0.22866520787746172],[0.3422431865828092,0.2085953878406709],[0.37219251336898396,0.20374331550802138]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":18.357503774843376,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25592","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Quebradanegra","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.082019942103571,7.00531208499336,5.9712230215827375],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25592|2023|Ordinary election|4877","CO-CON-25592|2019|Ordinary election|4878","CO-CON-25592|2015|Ordinary election|4879"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25592|2023|Ordinary election|4877","CO-CON-25592|2019|Ordinary election|4878","CO-CON-25592|2015|Ordinary election|4879"],"shares":[[0.27918944998391765,0.22836925056288193],[0.29083665338645415,0.22078353253652058],[0.42338129496402876,0.36366906474820143]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":71.26036053540787,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25594|2023|Ordinary election|4880","CO-CON-25594|2019|Ordinary election|4881","CO-CON-25594|2015|Ordinary election|4882"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25594|2023|Ordinary election|4880","CO-CON-25594|2019|Ordinary election|4881","CO-CON-25594|2015|Ordinary election|4882"],"shares":[[0.2800537273337811,0.250279829863443],[0.2974773917182294,0.26796763445978106],[0.3423804780876494,0.3331673306772908]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.18070979961341,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25596|2023|Ordinary election|4883","CO-CON-25596|2019|Ordinary election|4884","CO-CON-25596|2015|Ordinary election|4885"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25596|2023|Ordinary election|4883","CO-CON-25596|2019|Ordinary election|4884","CO-CON-25596|2015|Ordinary election|4885"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.27215686274509804,0.21516339869281048],[0.2417885730057963,0.20673475020701076]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25599|2023|Ordinary election|4886","CO-CON-25599|2019|Ordinary election|4887","CO-CON-25599|2015|Ordinary election|4888"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25599|2023|Ordinary election|4886","CO-CON-25599|2019|Ordinary election|4887","CO-CON-25599|2015|Ordinary election|4888"],"shares":[[0.2539489671931956,0.22802754151478333],[0.2691891891891892,0.19416216216216217],[0.22540891776831729,0.22115169168720591]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.75665693836669,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25612|2023|Ordinary election|4889","CO-CON-25612|2019|Ordinary election|4890","CO-CON-25612|2015|Ordinary election|4891"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25612|2023|Ordinary election|4889","CO-CON-25612|2019|Ordinary election|4890","CO-CON-25612|2015|Ordinary election|4891"],"shares":[[0.21413575927221834,0.156333100069979],[0.22765072765072766,0.14256014256014254],[0.22280954669229536,0.173954829408938]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":67.45287861157256,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25645|2023|Ordinary election|4892","CO-CON-25645|2019|Ordinary election|4893","CO-CON-25645|2015|Ordinary election|4894"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25645|2023|Ordinary election|4892","CO-CON-25645|2019|Ordinary election|4893","CO-CON-25645|2015|Ordinary election|4894"],"shares":[[0.26651254953764864,0.20145310435931307],[0.33129156457822895,0.20003500175008748],[0.2957311534968211,0.20345140781108081]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":56.179694737991106,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25649|2023|Ordinary election|4895","CO-CON-25649|2019|Ordinary election|4896","CO-CON-25649|2015|Ordinary election|4897"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25649|2023|Ordinary election|4895","CO-CON-25649|2019|Ordinary election|4896","CO-CON-25649|2015|Ordinary election|4897"],"shares":[[0.30640124902419985,0.2082357533177205],[0.36456092313710153,0.1533346371992959],[0.3268569115563651,0.24367536935842946]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":34.70733128748857,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25653|2023|Ordinary election|4898","CO-CON-25653|2019|Ordinary election|4899","CO-CON-25653|2015|Ordinary election|4900"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25653|2023|Ordinary election|4898","CO-CON-25653|2019|Ordinary election|4899","CO-CON-25653|2015|Ordinary election|4900"],"shares":[[0.3242748091603053,0.24610687022900762],[0.3995584988962472,0.3752759381898455],[0.37779354380986163,0.37105356509400494]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":72.5702352788576,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25658|2023|Ordinary election|4901","CO-CON-25658|2019|Ordinary election|4902","CO-CON-25658|2015|Ordinary election|4903"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25658|2023|Ordinary election|4901","CO-CON-25658|2019|Ordinary election|4902","CO-CON-25658|2015|Ordinary election|4903"],"shares":[[0.3541076487252125,0.1361543909348442],[0.2684752104770814,0.225444340505145],[0.34776451547643134,0.26886506170341895]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":24.214419478448445,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25662|2023|Ordinary election|4904","CO-CON-25662|2019|Ordinary election|4905","CO-CON-25662|2015|Ordinary election|4906"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25662|2023|Ordinary election|4904","CO-CON-25662|2019|Ordinary election|4905","CO-CON-25662|2015|Ordinary election|4906"],"shares":[[0.26943268416596106,0.188653683319221],[0.2416083916083916,0.22132867132867134],[0.24343492428598812,0.2281004408663983]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":71.95761753304045,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25718","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Sasaima","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.382555193630111,5.066815144766149,0.5799502899751445],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25718|2023|Ordinary election|4907","CO-CON-25718|2019|Ordinary election|4908","CO-CON-25718|2015|Ordinary election|4909"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25718|2023|Ordinary election|4907","CO-CON-25718|2019|Ordinary election|4908","CO-CON-25718|2015|Ordinary election|4909"],"shares":[[0.2609482446615997,0.1471226927252986],[0.2782108389012621,0.22754268745360057],[0.2787903893951947,0.27299088649544323]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":57.962136556972865,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[26.09482446615997,14.71226927252986,10.423452768729641,7.908070937386898,2.9134998190372783,9.572927976836771,6.894679695982628,0,0,0,21.48027506333695],[27.821083890126207,22.754268745360058,12.0452858203415,11.804008908685969,7.646622123236822,5.3266518188567185,7.498144023756496,3.56347438752784,0,0,1.540460282108389],[27.299088649544323,0,27.879038939519468,13.152444076222038,12.075393537696769,8.098591549295774,0,0,0,0,11.495443247721624]],"volatility_latest":24.186090939208615,"volatility_previous":34.337882397226274,"volatility_mean":29.261986668217446,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25736","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Sesquile","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.558746736292427,3.0769230769230766,14.911606456571867],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25736|2023|Ordinary election|4910","CO-CON-25736|2019|Ordinary election|4911","CO-CON-25736|2015|Ordinary election|4912"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25736|2023|Ordinary election|4910","CO-CON-25736|2019|Ordinary election|4911","CO-CON-25736|2015|Ordinary election|4912"],"shares":[[0.1886858137510879,0.16309834638816362],[0.20307692307692307,0.1723076923076923],[0.3088009223674097,0.159684857801691]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.25257194745217,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25740","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Sibate","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.8293857115347567,0.9925870084181447,1.5693052194953339],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25740|2023|Ordinary election|4913","CO-CON-25740|2019|Ordinary election|4914","CO-CON-25740|2015|Ordinary election|4915"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25740|2023|Ordinary election|4913","CO-CON-25740|2019|Ordinary election|4914","CO-CON-25740|2015|Ordinary election|4915"],"shares":[[0.16323255664676808,0.1449386995314205],[0.22031662269129287,0.21039075260711143],[0.2290356031800899,0.21334255098513655]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":92.23830974302084,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25743","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Silvania","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.242100578549175,3.121284185493458,5.688907687427301],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25743|2023|Ordinary election|4916","CO-CON-25743|2019|Ordinary election|4917","CO-CON-25743|2015|Ordinary election|4918"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25743|2023|Ordinary election|4916","CO-CON-25743|2019|Ordinary election|4917","CO-CON-25743|2015|Ordinary election|4918"],"shares":[[0.23613707165109032,0.15371606586559858],[0.1626040428061831,0.1313912009512485],[0.19879454372422545,0.14190546684995242]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":67.74731814239864,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25745","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Simijaca","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.071369704961267,3.81118881118881,8.052681091251177],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25745|2023|Ordinary election|4919","CO-CON-25745|2019|Ordinary election|4920","CO-CON-25745|2015|Ordinary election|4921"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25745|2023|Ordinary election|4919","CO-CON-25745|2019|Ordinary election|4920","CO-CON-25745|2015|Ordinary election|4921"],"shares":[[0.22498763804186583,0.21427394099225316],[0.23583916083916084,0.19772727272727272],[0.31157102539981185,0.2310442144873001]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.0427671227074,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25754|2023|Ordinary election|4922","CO-CON-25754|2019|Ordinary election|4923","CO-CON-25754|2015|Ordinary election|4924"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25754|2023|Ordinary election|4922","CO-CON-25754|2019|Ordinary election|4923","CO-CON-25754|2015|Ordinary election|4924"],"shares":[[0.1240146200188945,0.11160928618996731],[0.1375173225506388,0.11970119786624143],[0.1388214985536997,0.12308715125501539]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":92.81926378372802,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25758|2023|Ordinary election|4925","CO-CON-25758|2019|Ordinary election|4926","CO-CON-25758|2015|Ordinary election|4927"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25758|2023|Ordinary election|4925","CO-CON-25758|2019|Ordinary election|4926","CO-CON-25758|2015|Ordinary election|4927"],"shares":[[0.1619518521520629,0.11574937180838128],[0.2537766830870279,0.11929392446633827],[0.2535783544186906,0.17056053190506973]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":61.815950978111026,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25769","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Subachoque","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.13581420616596596,0.3873466752743724,4.749378927371035],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25769|2023|Ordinary election|4928","CO-CON-25769|2019|Ordinary election|4929","CO-CON-25769|2015|Ordinary election|4930"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25769|2023|Ordinary election|4928","CO-CON-25769|2019|Ordinary election|4929","CO-CON-25769|2015|Ordinary election|4930"],"shares":[[0.12345511340486215,0.12209697134320249],[0.20965138799225308,0.20577792123950936],[0.183691363437089,0.13619757416337863]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":96.63684790490503,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25772|2023|Ordinary election|4931","CO-CON-25772|2019|Ordinary election|4932","CO-CON-25772|2015|Ordinary election|4933"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25772|2023|Ordinary election|4931","CO-CON-25772|2019|Ordinary election|4932","CO-CON-25772|2015|Ordinary election|4933"],"shares":[[0.15696166042087056,0.1437013548573076],[0.19035935921489394,0.1485062779621879],[0.16378868182595316,0.14583689519575996]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":88.84635681151553,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25777","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Supata","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.599261001007726,1.6728624535315966,5.842336934773911],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25777|2023|Ordinary election|4934","CO-CON-25777|2019|Ordinary election|4935","CO-CON-25777|2015|Ordinary election|4936"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25777|2023|Ordinary election|4934","CO-CON-25777|2019|Ordinary election|4935","CO-CON-25777|2015|Ordinary election|4936"],"shares":[[0.3123950285522338,0.22640241854215654],[0.2208798017348203,0.20415117719950435],[0.3557422969187675,0.2973189275710284]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":68.77175484929248,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25779|2023|Ordinary election|4937","CO-CON-25779|2019|Ordinary election|4938","CO-CON-25779|2015|Ordinary election|4939"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25779|2023|Ordinary election|4937","CO-CON-25779|2019|Ordinary election|4938","CO-CON-25779|2015|Ordinary election|4939"],"shares":[[0.24101540216771247,0.19823160296634343],[0.20468521229868228,0.19502196193265006],[0.44391025641025644,0.24294871794871795]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.66729576160753,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25781|2023|Ordinary election|4940","CO-CON-25781|2019|Ordinary election|4941","CO-CON-25781|2015|Ordinary election|4942"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25781|2023|Ordinary election|4940","CO-CON-25781|2019|Ordinary election|4941","CO-CON-25781|2015|Ordinary election|4942"],"shares":[[0.1957760643647335,0.1692926583975863],[0.285449146250928,0.15033407572383073],[0.2597851112816577,0.22141212586339218]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":69.86906835987799,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25785|2023|Ordinary election|4943","CO-CON-25785|2019|Ordinary election|4944","CO-CON-25785|2015|Ordinary election|4945"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25785|2023|Ordinary election|4943","CO-CON-25785|2019|Ordinary election|4944","CO-CON-25785|2015|Ordinary election|4945"],"shares":[[0.1228860202141499,0.09676773741619132],[0.17521862817405964,0.1597302707828469],[0.17242937853107346,0.17096045197740115]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":89.7678152242469,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25793|2023|Ordinary election|4946","CO-CON-25793|2019|Ordinary election|4947","CO-CON-25793|2015|Ordinary election|4948"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25793|2023|Ordinary election|4946","CO-CON-25793|2019|Ordinary election|4947","CO-CON-25793|2015|Ordinary election|4948"],"shares":[[0.2268400278616206,0.14557696772695614],[0.29475982532751094,0.24090247452692867],[0.2634961439588689,0.19460154241645244]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":64.09774926239248,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25797|2023|Ordinary election|4949","CO-CON-25797|2019|Ordinary election|4950","CO-CON-25797|2015|Ordinary election|4951"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25797|2023|Ordinary election|4949","CO-CON-25797|2019|Ordinary election|4950","CO-CON-25797|2015|Ordinary election|4951"],"shares":[[0.37407629318953467,0.28679848212502496],[0.293446088794926,0.2809725158562368],[0.36901698404529076,0.262995367987648]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":66.64453993696155,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25799","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Tenjo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.57230436350523,1.921326726665992,3.0374092685650496],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25799|2023|Ordinary election|4952","CO-CON-25799|2019|Ordinary election|4953","CO-CON-25799|2015|Ordinary election|4954"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25799|2023|Ordinary election|4952","CO-CON-25799|2019|Ordinary election|4953","CO-CON-25799|2015|Ordinary election|4954"],"shares":[[0.22358456545257843,0.15786152181752613],[0.1617959348771362,0.1425826676104763],[0.2199888330541597,0.1896147403685092]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.88239218520279,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25805","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Tibacuy","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.635761589403973,0.3379647014645144,4.728546409807354],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25805|2023|Ordinary election|4955","CO-CON-25805|2019|Ordinary election|4956","CO-CON-25805|2015|Ordinary election|4957"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25805|2023|Ordinary election|4955","CO-CON-25805|2019|Ordinary election|4956","CO-CON-25805|2015|Ordinary election|4957"],"shares":[[0.2509933774834437,0.204635761589404],[0.23056702966579046,0.22718738265114533],[0.20359019264448336,0.1563047285464098]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":83.22149497468763,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[14.205298013245033,17.549668874172184,25.09933774834437,4.768211920529802,0,9.900662251655628,0,4.139072847682119,0,0,24.337748344370862],[16.372512204280888,9.12504693954187,22.71873826511453,12.917761922643635,9.350356740518212,23.056702966579046,6.458880961321817,0,0,0,0],[13.441330998248686,8.669001751313486,20.359019264448335,15.630472854640981,7.399299474605955,8.493870402802102,14.492119089316988,0,0,0,11.514886164623467]],"volatility_latest":39.282042609913134,"volatility_previous":22.260835224615985,"volatility_mean":30.77143891726456,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25807","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Tibirita","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.7926356589147296,3.5105315947843536,19.630233822729746],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25807|2023|Ordinary election|4958","CO-CON-25807|2019|Ordinary election|4959","CO-CON-25807|2015|Ordinary election|4960"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25807|2023|Ordinary election|4958","CO-CON-25807|2019|Ordinary election|4959","CO-CON-25807|2015|Ordinary election|4960"],"shares":[[0.27325581395348836,0.2553294573643411],[0.2858575727181545,0.25075225677031093],[0.38336052202283855,0.18705818379554107]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":79.54117871971441,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25815","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Tocaima","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.479481641468681,11.75222740772168,4.249375091898248],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25815|2023|Ordinary election|4961","CO-CON-25815|2019|Ordinary election|4962","CO-CON-25815|2015|Ordinary election|4963"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25815|2023|Ordinary election|4961","CO-CON-25815|2019|Ordinary election|4962","CO-CON-25815|2015|Ordinary election|4963"],"shares":[[0.22988660907127428,0.16509179265658747],[0.2899165605996323,0.1723942865224155],[0.205263931774739,0.1627701808557565]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":60.808526418062314,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25817","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Tocancipa","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.23415421881307985,2.8156312625250504,4.761337935960004],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25817|2023|Ordinary election|4964","CO-CON-25817|2019|Ordinary election|4965","CO-CON-25817|2015|Ordinary election|4966"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25817|2023|Ordinary election|4964","CO-CON-25817|2019|Ordinary election|4965","CO-CON-25817|2015|Ordinary election|4966"],"shares":[[0.0996770286637061,0.0973354864755753],[0.12369739478957915,0.09554108216432866],[0.17980002380668966,0.13218664444708964]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":92.69342148179318,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25823","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Topaipi","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.790996784565916,1.8945634266886344,12.539682539682541],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25823|2023|Ordinary election|4967","CO-CON-25823|2019|Ordinary election|4968","CO-CON-25823|2015|Ordinary election|4969"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25823|2023|Ordinary election|4967","CO-CON-25823|2019|Ordinary election|4968","CO-CON-25823|2015|Ordinary election|4969"],"shares":[[0.3803858520900322,0.232475884244373],[0.28995057660626034,0.27100494233937394],[0.3396825396825397,0.21428571428571427]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":46.51532323642803,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25839|2023|Ordinary election|4970","CO-CON-25839|2019|Ordinary election|4971","CO-CON-25839|2015|Ordinary election|4972"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25839|2023|Ordinary election|4970","CO-CON-25839|2019|Ordinary election|4971","CO-CON-25839|2015|Ordinary election|4972"],"shares":[[0.18881727921964814,0.14910294373802474],[0.243611911623439,0.1978866474543708],[0.32836143536532636,0.2116299178555988]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.39033385466637,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25841","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Ubaque","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.765271105010296,4.373804971319309,12.067640276710222],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25841|2023|Ordinary election|4973","CO-CON-25841|2019|Ordinary election|4974","CO-CON-25841|2015|Ordinary election|4975"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25841|2023|Ordinary election|4973","CO-CON-25841|2019|Ordinary election|4974","CO-CON-25841|2015|Ordinary election|4975"],"shares":[[0.1921757035003432,0.13452299245024021],[0.24641491395793497,0.20267686424474188],[0.31949782218806044,0.19882141942095824]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":70.10965908963503,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25843","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Ubate","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.8141683778234086,2.6083556747095624,3.179487179487179],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25843|2023|Ordinary election|4976","CO-CON-25843|2019|Ordinary election|4977","CO-CON-25843|2015|Ordinary election|4978"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25843|2023|Ordinary election|4976","CO-CON-25843|2019|Ordinary election|4977","CO-CON-25843|2015|Ordinary election|4978"],"shares":[[0.1336242299794661,0.09548254620123203],[0.16448838248436104,0.13840482573726542],[0.2177777777777778,0.185982905982906]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":83.05521776472185,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25845","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Une","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.2637238256932655,2.329162656400385,5.496119152506818],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25845|2023|Ordinary election|4979","CO-CON-25845|2019|Ordinary election|4980","CO-CON-25845|2015|Ordinary election|4981"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25845|2023|Ordinary election|4979","CO-CON-25845|2019|Ordinary election|4980","CO-CON-25845|2015|Ordinary election|4981"],"shares":[[0.23071118656857198,0.20807394831163933],[0.2082771896053898,0.18498556304138597],[0.2615900985945039,0.2066289070694357]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.96702496206622,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25851|2023|Ordinary election|4982","CO-CON-25851|2019|Ordinary election|4983","CO-CON-25851|2015|Ordinary election|4984"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25851|2023|Ordinary election|4982","CO-CON-25851|2019|Ordinary election|4983","CO-CON-25851|2015|Ordinary election|4984"],"shares":[[0.39754669640367996,0.31502648452746024],[0.4171668667466987,0.3397358943577431],[0.436935534101526,0.20554344440984118]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":52.059686094206526,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25862|2023|Ordinary election|4985","CO-CON-25862|2019|Ordinary election|4986","CO-CON-25862|2015|Ordinary election|4987"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25862|2023|Ordinary election|4985","CO-CON-25862|2019|Ordinary election|4986","CO-CON-25862|2015|Ordinary election|4987"],"shares":[[0.47649667405764967,0.19556541019955653],[0.3462806026365348,0.2855461393596987],[0.39313747477012784,0.1717873962771922]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25867|2023|Ordinary election|4988","CO-CON-25867|2019|Ordinary election|4989","CO-CON-25867|2015|Ordinary election|4990"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25867|2023|Ordinary election|4988","CO-CON-25867|2019|Ordinary election|4989","CO-CON-25867|2015|Ordinary election|4990"],"shares":[[0.15804495183731715,0.14555833036032823],[0.20192663949610967,0.18747684327528713],[0.23572037510656435,0.21867007672634273]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":93.23402920476886,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25871|2023|Ordinary election|4991","CO-CON-25871|2019|Ordinary election|4992","CO-CON-25871|2015|Ordinary election|4993"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25871|2023|Ordinary election|4991","CO-CON-25871|2019|Ordinary election|4992","CO-CON-25871|2015|Ordinary election|4993"],"shares":[[0.3189710610932476,0.2945337620578778],[0.5076209410205434,0.2339297548045063],[0.48853016142735767,0.20900594732370434]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":37.63892165180083,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25873","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Villapinzon","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.9473684210526336,0.27570361860999526,7.236528373867429],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25873|2023|Ordinary election|4994","CO-CON-25873|2019|Ordinary election|4995","CO-CON-25873|2015|Ordinary election|4996"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25873|2023|Ordinary election|4994","CO-CON-25873|2019|Ordinary election|4995","CO-CON-25873|2015|Ordinary election|4996"],"shares":[[0.1744449013157895,0.13497121710526316],[0.14750143595634693,0.14474439977024697],[0.21232713400095374,0.13996185026227945]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":84.1260751219934,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[6.393914473684211,8.861019736842104,6.722861842105263,17.44449013157895,6.568667763157895,3.2175164473684212,5.6332236842105265,9.364720394736842,0,0,35.79358552631579],[14.474439977024698,10.315910396323952,8.29408385985066,8.32854681217691,8.179207352096496,4.916714531878231,10.982194141298104,12.510051694428489,0,14.750143595634693,7.248707639287765],[21.232713400095374,7.212684787792084,13.996185026227945,6.688125894134478,10.371959942775394,11.98140200286123,10.789222699093944,0,0,10.014306151645208,7.713400095374344]],"volatility_latest":37.66082120643006,"volatility_previous":22.182507107196436,"volatility_mean":29.921664156813247,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25875","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Villeta","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.051751319487286,6.162464985994397,4.568210262828536],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25875|2023|Ordinary election|4997","CO-CON-25875|2019|Ordinary election|4998","CO-CON-25875|2015|Ordinary election|4999"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25875|2023|Ordinary election|4997","CO-CON-25875|2019|Ordinary election|4998","CO-CON-25875|2015|Ordinary election|4999"],"shares":[[0.17245870176160122,0.12194118856672835],[0.20297349709114415,0.14134884723120017],[0.20955882352941177,0.1638767209011264]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":73.31694343113229,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[12.194118856672835,8.328192473781616,6.785934608266502,17.24587017616012,4.0647062855576115,10.836931935019535,6.367811364726849,0,0,0,34.17643429981493],[13.840407958055017,10.371328018386842,14.134884723120017,20.297349709114414,11.312217194570136,5.60942325648208,10.981828628887452,3.612727142138907,0,3.9000215470803705,5.9398118221647636],[16.38767209011264,14.612015018773468,9.762202753441802,20.955882352941178,10.028160200250312,7.33729662077597,4.130162703379224,0.42240300375469336,0,8.77659574468085,7.5876095118898625]],"volatility_latest":33.46413115618762,"volatility_previous":15.698729027890481,"volatility_mean":24.58143009203905,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25878","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Viota","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.988995873452547,12.544117647058826,1.2953367875647679],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25878|2023|Ordinary election|5000","CO-CON-25878|2019|Ordinary election|5001","CO-CON-25878|2015|Ordinary election|5002"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25878|2023|Ordinary election|5000","CO-CON-25878|2019|Ordinary election|5001","CO-CON-25878|2015|Ordinary election|5002"],"shares":[[0.18202659330582305,0.14213663457129758],[0.2858823529411765,0.16044117647058823],[0.17551813471502592,0.16256476683937823]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":68.56916751527173,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-25885","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Yacopi","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.0641442506650876,0.7244094488188964,11.261749819233552],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25885|2023|Ordinary election|5003","CO-CON-25885|2019|Ordinary election|5004","CO-CON-25885|2015|Ordinary election|5005"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25885|2023|Ordinary election|5003","CO-CON-25885|2019|Ordinary election|5004","CO-CON-25885|2015|Ordinary election|5005"],"shares":[[0.22938220514336385,0.218740762636713],[0.22440944881889763,0.21716535433070866],[0.26391901663051337,0.15130151843817788]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":90.09007816515961,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25898|2023|Ordinary election|5006","CO-CON-25898|2019|Ordinary election|5007","CO-CON-25898|2015|Ordinary election|5008"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25898|2023|Ordinary election|5006","CO-CON-25898|2019|Ordinary election|5007","CO-CON-25898|2015|Ordinary election|5008"],"shares":[[0.22281073446327684,0.17372881355932204],[0.20281195079086117,0.17152899824253076],[0.21232632703954402,0.18952618453865339]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":79.44297372151946,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-25899|2023|Ordinary election|5009","CO-CON-25899|2019|Ordinary election|5010","CO-CON-25899|2015|Ordinary election|5011"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-25899|2023|Ordinary election|5009","CO-CON-25899|2019|Ordinary election|5010","CO-CON-25899|2015|Ordinary election|5011"],"shares":[[0.12701010523911926,0.1040211620073458],[0.17082180996023177,0.13438439953973796],[0.16987082155621483,0.11310705692728165]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":84.79951723594723,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-27001|2023|Ordinary election|5012","CO-CON-27001|2019|Ordinary election|5013","CO-CON-27001|2015|Ordinary election|5014"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-27001|2023|Ordinary election|5012","CO-CON-27001|2019|Ordinary election|5013","CO-CON-27001|2015|Ordinary election|5014"],"shares":[[0.17230243161094225,0.16437120060790275],[0.1630405782337675,0.1488515365398142],[0.180622116386367,0.17511534454531927]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":95.21693585294277,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-27006","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Acandi","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.382444566611689,17.679222357229644,14.378932649731993],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-27006|2023|Ordinary election|5015","CO-CON-27006|2019|Ordinary election|5016","CO-CON-27006|2015|Ordinary election|5017"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-27006|2023|Ordinary election|5015","CO-CON-27006|2019|Ordinary election|5016","CO-CON-27006|2015|Ordinary election|5017"],"shares":[[0.3617372182517867,0.2679127725856698],[0.360064803564196,0.18327257999189958],[0.341179212304824,0.19738988580750408]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":38.14436643945448,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-27025","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Alto Baudo (Pie De Pato)","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.272088231729489,0.5192253718776314,10.165263486124104],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-27025|2023|Ordinary election|5018","CO-CON-27025|2019|Ordinary election|5019","CO-CON-27025|2015|Ordinary election|5020"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-27025|2023|Ordinary election|5018","CO-CON-27025|2019|Ordinary election|5019","CO-CON-27025|2015|Ordinary election|5020"],"shares":[[0.20397527572415466,0.15125439340685978],[0.2180746561886051,0.2128824024698288],[0.33052697224820704,0.228874337386966]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":78.32226550393302,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-27050|2023|Ordinary election|5021","CO-CON-27050|2019|Ordinary election|5022","CO-CON-27050|2015|Ordinary election|5023"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-27050|2023|Ordinary election|5021","CO-CON-27050|2019|Ordinary election|5022","CO-CON-27050|2015|Ordinary election|5023"],"shares":[[0.25359560067681897,0.24851945854483926],[0.2819277108433735,0.26666666666666666],[0.22542869092429946,0.2099539941447093]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":95.41426589492058,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-27073|2023|Ordinary election|5024","CO-CON-27073|2019|Ordinary election|5025","CO-CON-27073|2015|Ordinary election|5026"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-27073|2023|Ordinary election|5024","CO-CON-27073|2019|Ordinary election|5025","CO-CON-27073|2015|Ordinary election|5026"],"shares":[[0.1646732165741136,0.13135412217001283],[0.23259803921568628,0.16102941176470587],[0.18626956082786472,0.18450277637556792]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":79.18063833850786,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-27075|2023|Ordinary election|5027","CO-CON-27075|2019|Ordinary election|5028","CO-CON-27075|2015|Ordinary election|5029"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-27075|2023|Ordinary election|5027","CO-CON-27075|2019|Ordinary election|5028","CO-CON-27075|2015|Ordinary election|5029"],"shares":[[0.3911592994161801,0.31255212677231026],[0.3613807982740022,0.22351672060409924],[0.34994697773064687,0.3025804171085189]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":53.3699085252472,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-27077","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Bajo Baudo (Pizarro)","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.5118790496760255,8.597469732009252,1.6044340723453914],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-27077|2023|Ordinary election|5030","CO-CON-27077|2019|Ordinary election|5031","CO-CON-27077|2015|Ordinary election|5032"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-27077|2023|Ordinary election|5030","CO-CON-27077|2019|Ordinary election|5031","CO-CON-27077|2015|Ordinary election|5032"],"shares":[[0.2711218396645915,0.2560030491678313],[0.3749149775540743,0.28894028023398177],[0.36785297549591595,0.35180863477246205]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":81.76594121678535,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-27099","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Bojaya (Bellavista)","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.3019538188277089,2.943780433820276,6.358849736735518],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-27099|2023|Ordinary election|5033","CO-CON-27099|2019|Ordinary election|5034","CO-CON-27099|2015|Ordinary election|5035"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-27099|2023|Ordinary election|5033","CO-CON-27099|2019|Ordinary election|5034","CO-CON-27099|2015|Ordinary election|5035"],"shares":[[0.2127886323268206,0.2097690941385435],[0.24856131031429837,0.2191235059760956],[0.28311057108140947,0.2195220737140543]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":91.4990430244187,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[19.413854351687387,17.939609236234457,21.27886323268206,17.05150976909414,0,0,0,20.97690941385435,0,0,3.339253996447602],[24.856131031429836,21.91235059760956,16.578131916777334,17.817618415227976,0,0,0,18.06108897742364,0,0,0.7746790615316512],[8.059943296881329,28.311057108140947,21.628189550425272,15.593357634669907,0,0,0,21.95220737140543,0,0,4.455245038477116]],"volatility_latest":10.181126687251387,"volatility_previous":19.020448515106576,"volatility_mean":14.600787601178983,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-27135","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"El Canton Del San Pablo (Man.","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.785340314136128,2.6538678712591732,8.469750889679712],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-27135|2023|Ordinary election|5036","CO-CON-27135|2019|Ordinary election|5037","CO-CON-27135|2015|Ordinary election|5038"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-27135|2023|Ordinary election|5036","CO-CON-27135|2019|Ordinary election|5037","CO-CON-27135|2015|Ordinary election|5038"],"shares":[[0.30130890052356024,0.24345549738219893],[0.3074534161490683,0.2809147374364766],[0.39145907473309605,0.30676156583629893]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":74.428301805863,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-27150|2023|Ordinary election|5039","CO-CON-27150|2019|Ordinary election|5040","CO-CON-27150|2015|Ordinary election|5041"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-27150|2023|Ordinary election|5039","CO-CON-27150|2019|Ordinary election|5040","CO-CON-27150|2015|Ordinary election|5041"],"shares":[[0.20266412940057088,0.1731684110371075],[0.3295515937331172,0.17071853052404104],[0.26575067024128685,0.14544235924932974]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":61.3109094600017,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-27160","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Certegui","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.024605024605027,3.3504376697856912,10.473208072373001],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-27160|2023|Ordinary election|5042","CO-CON-27160|2019|Ordinary election|5043","CO-CON-27160|2015|Ordinary election|5044"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-27160|2023|Ordinary election|5042","CO-CON-27160|2019|Ordinary election|5043","CO-CON-27160|2015|Ordinary election|5044"],"shares":[[0.25641025641025644,0.20616420616420617],[0.3893751886507697,0.35587081195291276],[0.37856645789839943,0.2738343771746694]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":74.66392438531987,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-27205","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Condoto","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.6785714285714306,10.741898338542523,4.180514255728529],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-27205|2023|Ordinary election|5045","CO-CON-27205|2019|Ordinary election|5046","CO-CON-27205|2015|Ordinary election|5047"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-27205|2023|Ordinary election|5045","CO-CON-27205|2019|Ordinary election|5046","CO-CON-27205|2015|Ordinary election|5047"],"shares":[[0.2742974238875878,0.24751170960187352],[0.2921533146899161,0.18473433130449088],[0.2506559384292461,0.20885079587196081]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":73.76118107860766,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-27245","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"El Carmen","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[19.52113364280479,4.40625,8.044473512099412],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-27245|2023|Ordinary election|5048","CO-CON-27245|2019|Ordinary election|5049","CO-CON-27245|2015|Ordinary election|5050"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-27245|2023|Ordinary election|5048","CO-CON-27245|2019|Ordinary election|5049","CO-CON-27245|2015|Ordinary election|5050"],"shares":[[0.3813828487661862,0.18617151233813828],[0.2940625,0.25],[0.31458469587965987,0.23413996075866578]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":30.804987315535925,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-27250|2023|Ordinary election|5051","CO-CON-27250|2019|Ordinary election|5052","CO-CON-27250|2015|Ordinary election|5053"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-27250|2023|Ordinary election|5051","CO-CON-27250|2019|Ordinary election|5052","CO-CON-27250|2015|Ordinary election|5053"],"shares":[[0.1996694214876033,0.19785123966942147],[0.28527163809130346,0.14149969014666391],[0.29681174089068824,0.22722672064777327]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":74.40950225070377,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-27361|2023|Ordinary election|5054","CO-CON-27361|2019|Ordinary election|5055","CO-CON-27361|2015|Ordinary election|5056"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-27361|2023|Ordinary election|5054","CO-CON-27361|2019|Ordinary election|5055","CO-CON-27361|2015|Ordinary election|5056"],"shares":[[0.25816547628601233,0.18192761415616726],[0.34277646201493894,0.1970304244853343],[0.282715543723121,0.22916240016383368]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":52.589078553641414,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-27372|2023|Ordinary election|5057","CO-CON-27372|2019|Ordinary election|5058","CO-CON-27372|2015|Ordinary election|5059"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-27372|2023|Ordinary election|5057","CO-CON-27372|2019|Ordinary election|5058","CO-CON-27372|2015|Ordinary election|5059"],"shares":[[0.3617453069507864,0.31861998985286655],[0.29960899315738027,0.2820136852394917],[0.3263371699390657,0.23696682464454977]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":79.95459141821499,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-27413|2023|Ordinary election|5060","CO-CON-27413|2019|Ordinary election|5061","CO-CON-27413|2015|Ordinary election|5062"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-27413|2023|Ordinary election|5060","CO-CON-27413|2019|Ordinary election|5061","CO-CON-27413|2015|Ordinary election|5062"],"shares":[[0.362534435261708,0.13976124885215793],[0.3528433654805454,0.20485533754572663],[0.2716134997688396,0.2512713823393435]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":9.95273401543738,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-27425","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Medio Atrato (Bete)","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.6530612244897966,3.3363802559414992,20.40668119099492],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-27425|2023|Ordinary election|5063","CO-CON-27425|2019|Ordinary election|5064","CO-CON-27425|2015|Ordinary election|5065"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-27425|2023|Ordinary election|5063","CO-CON-27425|2019|Ordinary election|5064","CO-CON-27425|2015|Ordinary election|5065"],"shares":[[0.28102040816326535,0.27448979591836736],[0.27787934186471663,0.24451553930530165],[0.44008714596949894,0.23602033405954972]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":82.8329053471209,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,27.448979591836736,16.428571428571427,23.857142857142858,0,0,4.163265306122449,0,28.102040816326532,0,0],[0,27.787934186471663,4.021937842778794,24.451553930530164,0,0,15.996343692870202,5.690127970749543,22.052102376599635,0,0],[0,44.00871459694989,3.6310820624546114,23.602033405954973,0,0,15.032679738562091,0,13.72549019607843,0,0]],"volatility_latest":18.45657202551953,"volatility_previous":16.22078041047823,"volatility_mean":17.33867621799888,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-27430","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Medio Baudo (Puerto Meluk)","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.863872743958396,6.732290384953416,13.242662848962063],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-27430|2023|Ordinary election|5066","CO-CON-27430|2019|Ordinary election|5067","CO-CON-27430|2015|Ordinary election|5068"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-27430|2023|Ordinary election|5066","CO-CON-27430|2019|Ordinary election|5067","CO-CON-27430|2015|Ordinary election|5068"],"shares":[[0.39522789843988987,0.34658917100030595],[0.40288275619616803,0.3355598523466339],[0.45776664280601287,0.32534001431639226]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":68.68861476621366,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-27450|2023|Ordinary election|5069","CO-CON-27450|2019|Ordinary election|5070","CO-CON-27450|2015|Ordinary election|5071"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-27450|2023|Ordinary election|5069","CO-CON-27450|2019|Ordinary election|5070","CO-CON-27450|2015|Ordinary election|5071"],"shares":[[0.15940870954854175,0.14582500998801437],[0.16098788017379373,0.15184084152755545],[0.2429641105086496,0.2088820036147689]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":92.84872899021201,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-27491","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Novita","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.53443154199298,12.025107367030063,5.153970826580224],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-27491|2023|Ordinary election|5072","CO-CON-27491|2019|Ordinary election|5073","CO-CON-27491|2015|Ordinary election|5074"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-27491|2023|Ordinary election|5072","CO-CON-27491|2019|Ordinary election|5073","CO-CON-27491|2015|Ordinary election|5074"],"shares":[[0.3688900891169322,0.29354577369700247],[0.341592335645854,0.22134126197555337],[0.31345218800648295,0.2619124797406807]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":56.78205891018585,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-27495","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Nuqui","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.967169476486244,3.6416033534189154,21.085526315789476],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-27495|2023|Ordinary election|5075","CO-CON-27495|2019|Ordinary election|5076","CO-CON-27495|2015|Ordinary election|5077"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-27495|2023|Ordinary election|5075","CO-CON-27495|2019|Ordinary election|5076","CO-CON-27495|2015|Ordinary election|5077"],"shares":[[0.361357586512866,0.3016858917480036],[0.3175268535499083,0.28111082001571913],[0.4105263157894737,0.19967105263157894]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":66.09332338251815,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-27580|2023|Ordinary election|5078","CO-CON-27580|2019|Ordinary election|5079","CO-CON-27580|2015|Ordinary election|5080"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-27580|2023|Ordinary election|5078","CO-CON-27580|2019|Ordinary election|5079","CO-CON-27580|2015|Ordinary election|5080"],"shares":[[0.3203477141017386,0.3016741790083709],[0.3991314646664035,0.2779313067508883],[0.35214937038645244,0.25835866261398177]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":71.52838039603888,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,32.03477141017386,9.207984546039922,28.589826142949132,0,30.16741790083709,0,0,0,0,0],[0,39.91314646664035,5.921831819976313,26.371891038294514,0,27.79313067508883,0,0,0,0,0],[12.679114198871037,35.214937038645246,7.207989578810247,19.062092922275294,0,0,0,0,0,0,25.835866261398177]],"volatility_latest":7.8783750564664885,"volatility_previous":39.80113821910315,"volatility_mean":23.83975663778482,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-27600|2023|Ordinary election|5081","CO-CON-27600|2019|Ordinary election|5082","CO-CON-27600|2015|Ordinary election|5083"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-27600|2023|Ordinary election|5081","CO-CON-27600|2019|Ordinary election|5082","CO-CON-27600|2015|Ordinary election|5083"],"shares":[[0.271139193458465,0.23843151830514775],[0.21878967414303852,0.20461278036394415],[0.2847111394829237,0.26683689754229173]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.16745129010907,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-27615","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Riosucio","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.482904341144831,4.738773747841105,0.3550104889462631],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-27615|2023|Ordinary election|5084","CO-CON-27615|2019|Ordinary election|5085","CO-CON-27615|2015|Ordinary election|5086"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-27615|2023|Ordinary election|5084","CO-CON-27615|2019|Ordinary election|5085","CO-CON-27615|2015|Ordinary election|5086"],"shares":[[0.27718017671917017,0.21235113330772187],[0.20433937823834195,0.1569516407599309],[0.19767629498144262,0.19412619009198]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":73.26562111033073,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-27660|2023|Ordinary election|5087","CO-CON-27660|2019|Ordinary election|5088","CO-CON-27660|2015|Ordinary election|5089"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-27660|2023|Ordinary election|5087","CO-CON-27660|2019|Ordinary election|5088","CO-CON-27660|2015|Ordinary election|5089"],"shares":[[0.31959564541213065,0.2255054432348367],[0.2976045473000406,0.2143727161997564],[0.23625886524822698,0.2149822695035461]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":58.224334894535154,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-27745","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Sipi","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.09478672985781955,1.254275940706954,2.3514043109079026],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-27745|2023|Ordinary election|5090","CO-CON-27745|2019|Ordinary election|5091","CO-CON-27745|2015|Ordinary election|5092"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-27745|2023|Ordinary election|5090","CO-CON-27745|2019|Ordinary election|5091","CO-CON-27745|2015|Ordinary election|5092"],"shares":[[0.22985781990521328,0.22890995260663508],[0.19954389965792474,0.18700114025085518],[0.30111038536903983,0.2775963422599608]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":96.65852374391216,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-27787","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Tado","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.886340977068791,8.739293361884368,4.952124476361458],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-27787|2023|Ordinary election|5093","CO-CON-27787|2019|Ordinary election|5094","CO-CON-27787|2015|Ordinary election|5095"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-27787|2023|Ordinary election|5093","CO-CON-27787|2019|Ordinary election|5094","CO-CON-27787|2015|Ordinary election|5095"],"shares":[[0.3362412761714855,0.2073778664007976],[0.26967344753747324,0.18228051391862954],[0.3110412926391382,0.26152004787552363]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":45.75597478778634,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[33.62412761714855,13.372382851445662,13.90827517447657,20.73778664007976,5.608175473579262,11.914257228315055,0,0,0,0,0.8349950149551346],[26.967344753747323,13.302997858672377,13.343147751605995,18.228051391862955,13.731263383297645,9.7296573875803,0,0,0,0,4.697537473233405],[31.104129263913823,26.152004787552364,11.490125673249551,19.59904248952723,2.7528426092160383,1.3016157989228008,0,3.6654697785757033,0,0,3.9347695990424896]],"volatility_latest":11.985630367996652,"volatility_previous":22.022252315286465,"volatility_mean":17.003941341641557,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-27800","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Unguia","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.9038762384842691,2.659008721548606,2.022417153996102],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-27800|2023|Ordinary election|5096","CO-CON-27800|2019|Ordinary election|5097","CO-CON-27800|2015|Ordinary election|5098"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-27800|2023|Ordinary election|5096","CO-CON-27800|2019|Ordinary election|5097","CO-CON-27800|2015|Ordinary election|5098"],"shares":[[0.19537632539544586,0.18633756301060317],[0.28462029355456286,0.2580302063390768],[0.2565789473684211,0.23635477582846004]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":92.28864962522624,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-27810","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Union Panamericana (Las Animas","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.6513664101883805,2.212389380530979,16.803874092009682],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-27810|2023|Ordinary election|5099","CO-CON-27810|2019|Ordinary election|5100","CO-CON-27810|2015|Ordinary election|5101"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-27810|2023|Ordinary election|5099","CO-CON-27810|2019|Ordinary election|5100","CO-CON-27810|2015|Ordinary election|5101"],"shares":[[0.3313876359777129,0.2748739718758291],[0.3910398230088496,0.36891592920353977],[0.4435835351089588,0.275544794188862]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":71.32537965263354,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-41001","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Neiva","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.5747645211930923,1.568923567413373,2.639348134152103],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41001|2023|Ordinary election|5102","CO-CON-41001|2019|Ordinary election|5103","CO-CON-41001|2015|Ordinary election|5104"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41001|2023|Ordinary election|5102","CO-CON-41001|2019|Ordinary election|5103","CO-CON-41001|2015|Ordinary election|5104"],"shares":[[0.11884671450997981,0.10309906929804889],[0.1213119109544984,0.10562267528036468],[0.15860445205479454,0.1322109707132735]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":91.60264701822462,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-41006","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Acevedo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.2442202606137016,0.7563793533372127,3.6906377204884677],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41006|2023|Ordinary election|5105","CO-CON-41006|2019|Ordinary election|5106","CO-CON-41006|2015|Ordinary election|5107"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41006|2023|Ordinary election|5105","CO-CON-41006|2019|Ordinary election|5106","CO-CON-41006|2015|Ordinary election|5107"],"shares":[[0.1846153846153846,0.17217318200924758],[0.22757875488321835,0.22001496134984624],[0.2443238353686115,0.2074174581637268]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":93.28745132790884,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-41013","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Agrado","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.0088041085840054,5.545320560058954,13.115124153498869],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41013|2023|Ordinary election|5108","CO-CON-41013|2019|Ordinary election|5109","CO-CON-41013|2015|Ordinary election|5110"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41013|2023|Ordinary election|5108","CO-CON-41013|2019|Ordinary election|5109","CO-CON-41013|2015|Ordinary election|5110"],"shares":[[0.30025678650036686,0.2901687454145268],[0.28371407516580693,0.22826086956521738],[0.31602708803611734,0.18487584650112868]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":82.09804475741012,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41016|2023|Ordinary election|5111","CO-CON-41016|2019|Ordinary election|5112","CO-CON-41016|2015|Ordinary election|5113"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41016|2023|Ordinary election|5111","CO-CON-41016|2019|Ordinary election|5112","CO-CON-41016|2015|Ordinary election|5113"],"shares":[[0.2506726041376751,0.15121996474626587],[0.27312316576730095,0.19700842563665624],[0.2546542553191489,0.2126551418439716]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":56.647041489221664,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41020|2023|Ordinary election|5114","CO-CON-41020|2019|Ordinary election|5115","CO-CON-41020|2015|Ordinary election|5116"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41020|2023|Ordinary election|5114","CO-CON-41020|2019|Ordinary election|5115","CO-CON-41020|2015|Ordinary election|5116"],"shares":[[0.277639751552795,0.1463768115942029],[0.2759902200488997,0.16430317848410758],[0.3541488451668092,0.2502749602835146]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":38.6743675335388,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41026|2023|Ordinary election|5117","CO-CON-41026|2019|Ordinary election|5118","CO-CON-41026|2015|Ordinary election|5119"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41026|2023|Ordinary election|5117","CO-CON-41026|2019|Ordinary election|5118","CO-CON-41026|2015|Ordinary election|5119"],"shares":[[0.22725434694702792,0.20582288718156086],[0.22576636288318144,0.21748135874067936],[0.3686040735221063,0.27024341778440136]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.40977866209933,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-41078","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Baraya","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.422265816576754,6.54988575780655,0.9289617486338813],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41078|2023|Ordinary election|5120","CO-CON-41078|2019|Ordinary election|5121","CO-CON-41078|2015|Ordinary election|5122"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41078|2023|Ordinary election|5120","CO-CON-41078|2019|Ordinary election|5121","CO-CON-41078|2015|Ordinary election|5122"],"shares":[[0.20598332515939188,0.19176066699362435],[0.23965473470423965,0.17415587712617417],[0.21174863387978143,0.2024590163934426]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":85.44389303924298,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-41132","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Campoalegre","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.4469631308753925,10.256243072308797,4.757541584437552],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41132|2023|Ordinary election|5123","CO-CON-41132|2019|Ordinary election|5124","CO-CON-41132|2015|Ordinary election|5125"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41132|2023|Ordinary election|5123","CO-CON-41132|2019|Ordinary election|5124","CO-CON-41132|2015|Ordinary election|5125"],"shares":[[0.1796119741316088,0.13514234282285487],[0.21118862880615505,0.10862619808306709],[0.18889202142655764,0.14131660558218212]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":68.89597520669184,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-41206","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Colombia","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.67727771679473,10.517090271691501,18.945359102839415],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41206|2023|Ordinary election|5126","CO-CON-41206|2019|Ordinary election|5127","CO-CON-41206|2015|Ordinary election|5128"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41206|2023|Ordinary election|5126","CO-CON-41206|2019|Ordinary election|5127","CO-CON-41206|2015|Ordinary election|5128"],"shares":[[0.38638858397365533,0.24961580680570802],[0.3733567046450482,0.26818580192813324],[0.4201861130994989,0.23073252207110476]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":33.719851890658845,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41244|2023|Ordinary election|5129","CO-CON-41244|2019|Ordinary election|5130","CO-CON-41244|2015|Ordinary election|5131"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41244|2023|Ordinary election|5129","CO-CON-41244|2019|Ordinary election|5130","CO-CON-41244|2015|Ordinary election|5131"],"shares":[[0.596820809248555,0.30563583815028905],[0.38904899135446686,0.284890901605599],[0.5319148936170213,0.42297872340425535]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-41298","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Garzon","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.548573669248112,1.199533895400645,0.4592252425746217],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41298|2023|Ordinary election|5132","CO-CON-41298|2019|Ordinary election|5133","CO-CON-41298|2015|Ordinary election|5134"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41298|2023|Ordinary election|5132","CO-CON-41298|2019|Ordinary election|5133","CO-CON-41298|2015|Ordinary election|5134"],"shares":[[0.1689376858477927,0.12345194915531157],[0.17749674412228392,0.16550140516827747],[0.20050366639508183,0.19591141396933562]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":84.32536552786738,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-41306","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Gigante","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.671340629274965,2.1621621621621614,0.15006565372350522],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41306|2023|Ordinary election|5135","CO-CON-41306|2019|Ordinary election|5136","CO-CON-41306|2015|Ordinary election|5137"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41306|2023|Ordinary election|5135","CO-CON-41306|2019|Ordinary election|5136","CO-CON-41306|2015|Ordinary election|5137"],"shares":[[0.30403556771545825,0.16732216142270862],[0.1645045045045045,0.1428828828828829],[0.1858000375164134,0.18429938097917836]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":55.66770204207011,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-41319","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Guadalupe","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.518873800921888,2.913442940038685,3.325971157593866],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41319|2023|Ordinary election|5138","CO-CON-41319|2019|Ordinary election|5139","CO-CON-41319|2015|Ordinary election|5140"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41319|2023|Ordinary election|5138","CO-CON-41319|2019|Ordinary election|5139","CO-CON-41319|2015|Ordinary election|5140"],"shares":[[0.21402765665877663,0.15883891864955774],[0.2122823984526112,0.18314796905222436],[0.24048330518383787,0.2072235936078992]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":77.41022860837937,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41349|2023|Ordinary election|5141","CO-CON-41349|2019|Ordinary election|5142","CO-CON-41349|2015|Ordinary election|5143"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41349|2023|Ordinary election|5141","CO-CON-41349|2019|Ordinary election|5142","CO-CON-41349|2015|Ordinary election|5143"],"shares":[[0.1982528512496967,0.1424411550594516],[0.2158869395711501,0.1754385964912281],[0.25675314255148435,0.20219309975929392]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":74.46123754132866,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41357|2023|Ordinary election|5144","CO-CON-41357|2019|Ordinary election|5145","CO-CON-41357|2015|Ordinary election|5146"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41357|2023|Ordinary election|5144","CO-CON-41357|2019|Ordinary election|5145","CO-CON-41357|2015|Ordinary election|5146"],"shares":[[0.2299026160015276,0.1987779262936796],[0.18144018144018145,0.16688716688716687],[0.21131664853101195,0.16713819368879218]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.27071816258243,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41359|2023|Ordinary election|5147","CO-CON-41359|2019|Ordinary election|5148","CO-CON-41359|2015|Ordinary election|5149"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41359|2023|Ordinary election|5147","CO-CON-41359|2019|Ordinary election|5148","CO-CON-41359|2015|Ordinary election|5149"],"shares":[[0.16624666469018679,0.1517195375037059],[0.21443041919900263,0.12817515973196197],[0.18823529411764706,0.15860884499785316]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":81.22225046800995,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-41378","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"La Argentina (Plata Vieja)","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.555242786769881,0.1436988072998986,1.2122844827586228],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41378|2023|Ordinary election|5150","CO-CON-41378|2019|Ordinary election|5151","CO-CON-41378|2015|Ordinary election|5152"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41378|2023|Ordinary election|5150","CO-CON-41378|2019|Ordinary election|5151","CO-CON-41378|2015|Ordinary election|5152"],"shares":[[0.27515833919774807,0.15960591133004925],[0.251472912774824,0.25003592470182495],[0.23033405172413793,0.2182112068965517]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":64.51258118736119,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41396|2023|Ordinary election|5153","CO-CON-41396|2019|Ordinary election|5154","CO-CON-41396|2015|Ordinary election|5155"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41396|2023|Ordinary election|5153","CO-CON-41396|2019|Ordinary election|5154","CO-CON-41396|2015|Ordinary election|5155"],"shares":[[0.2216687971084762,0.19112266937012387],[0.20240894476702337,0.2001055712846106],[0.211545008024121,0.17025725818217186]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":88.42626816403492,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41483|2023|Ordinary election|5156","CO-CON-41483|2019|Ordinary election|5157","CO-CON-41483|2015|Ordinary election|5158"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41483|2023|Ordinary election|5156","CO-CON-41483|2019|Ordinary election|5157","CO-CON-41483|2015|Ordinary election|5158"],"shares":[[0.3684359920522282,0.20266818052795912],[0.3187571921749137,0.26582278481012656],[0.45754565844280676,0.3591797500801025]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":37.41120001986599,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41503|2023|Ordinary election|5159","CO-CON-41503|2019|Ordinary election|5160","CO-CON-41503|2015|Ordinary election|5161"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41503|2023|Ordinary election|5159","CO-CON-41503|2019|Ordinary election|5160","CO-CON-41503|2015|Ordinary election|5161"],"shares":[[0.208551899539024,0.18820537275472898],[0.2638623326959847,0.22005909960020859],[0.2215693707354056,0.19598180439727067]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.04617868343834,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-41518","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Paicol","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.8278750952018292,1.4278017241379324,2.1981079577072897],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41518|2023|Ordinary election|5162","CO-CON-41518|2019|Ordinary election|5163","CO-CON-41518|2015|Ordinary election|5164"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41518|2023|Ordinary election|5162","CO-CON-41518|2019|Ordinary election|5163","CO-CON-41518|2015|Ordinary election|5164"],"shares":[[0.18202589489718204,0.16374714394516374],[0.2526939655172414,0.23841594827586207],[0.2654424040066778,0.2434613244296049]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":91.27561814933397,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41524|2023|Ordinary election|5165","CO-CON-41524|2019|Ordinary election|5166","CO-CON-41524|2015|Ordinary election|5167"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41524|2023|Ordinary election|5165","CO-CON-41524|2019|Ordinary election|5166","CO-CON-41524|2015|Ordinary election|5167"],"shares":[[0.22914513509523107,0.14631625572124612],[0.28058634250983194,0.24304612084376118],[0.29400935798113065,0.15502032676229194]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":62.57085137695195,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41530|2023|Ordinary election|5168","CO-CON-41530|2019|Ordinary election|5169","CO-CON-41530|2015|Ordinary election|5170"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41530|2023|Ordinary election|5168","CO-CON-41530|2019|Ordinary election|5169","CO-CON-41530|2015|Ordinary election|5170"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.15569151505393655,0.1310578006762196],[0.18689680772086117,0.14977728285077951]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41548|2023|Ordinary election|5171","CO-CON-41548|2019|Ordinary election|5172","CO-CON-41548|2015|Ordinary election|5173"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41548|2023|Ordinary election|5171","CO-CON-41548|2019|Ordinary election|5172","CO-CON-41548|2015|Ordinary election|5173"],"shares":[[0.18817442719881744,0.1633407243163341],[0.2884126984126984,0.15555555555555556],[0.22746348833305355,0.164680208158469]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":69.48215369795435,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41551|2023|Ordinary election|5174","CO-CON-41551|2019|Ordinary election|5175","CO-CON-41551|2015|Ordinary election|5176"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41551|2023|Ordinary election|5174","CO-CON-41551|2019|Ordinary election|5175","CO-CON-41551|2015|Ordinary election|5176"],"shares":[[0.20773299288710562,0.13449652461142522],[0.22496584032793288,0.13002147179387077],[0.16756886019261288,0.16311224157046894]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":63.564573306079375,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41615|2023|Ordinary election|5177","CO-CON-41615|2019|Ordinary election|5178","CO-CON-41615|2015|Ordinary election|5179"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41615|2023|Ordinary election|5177","CO-CON-41615|2019|Ordinary election|5178","CO-CON-41615|2015|Ordinary election|5179"],"shares":[[0.21664528543938422,0.14640795381654909],[0.18919872926226614,0.1758736321920226],[0.17788368021785644,0.1518187123127796]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.6267875573591,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41660|2023|Ordinary election|5180","CO-CON-41660|2019|Ordinary election|5181","CO-CON-41660|2015|Ordinary election|5182"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41660|2023|Ordinary election|5180","CO-CON-41660|2019|Ordinary election|5181","CO-CON-41660|2015|Ordinary election|5182"],"shares":[[0.30719686362363485,0.2633716045925511],[0.3696480268170044,0.22291634923053483],[0.4657332350773766,0.23876197494473103]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":53.49410764607217,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-41668","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"San Agustin","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.306687056860834,10.886575491596924,2.5283217045539814],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41668|2023|Ordinary election|5183","CO-CON-41668|2019|Ordinary election|5184","CO-CON-41668|2015|Ordinary election|5185"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41668|2023|Ordinary election|5183","CO-CON-41668|2019|Ordinary election|5184","CO-CON-41668|2015|Ordinary election|5185"],"shares":[[0.2548310857778395,0.1717642152092312],[0.26883037354562156,0.1599646186296523],[0.19281266411583764,0.16752944707029782]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":57.48591473974513,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-41676","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Santa Maria","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.390330607891929,8.202005730659028,21.623222748815163],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41676|2023|Ordinary election|5186","CO-CON-41676|2019|Ordinary election|5187","CO-CON-41676|2015|Ordinary election|5188"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41676|2023|Ordinary election|5186","CO-CON-41676|2019|Ordinary election|5187","CO-CON-41676|2015|Ordinary election|5188"],"shares":[[0.2650195520796303,0.221116246000711],[0.3495702005730659,0.26755014326647564],[0.46090047393364925,0.24466824644549764]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":63.71438820592809,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-41770","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Suaza","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.44502882573075553,4.609349460608044,1.2196704294796952],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41770|2023|Ordinary election|5189","CO-CON-41770|2019|Ordinary election|5190","CO-CON-41770|2015|Ordinary election|5191"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41770|2023|Ordinary election|5189","CO-CON-41770|2019|Ordinary election|5190","CO-CON-41770|2015|Ordinary election|5191"],"shares":[[0.21381612218064125,0.2093658339233337],[0.19429007300860848,0.14819657840252806],[0.20682496431815234,0.1946282600233554]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":91.14105411715582,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-41791","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Tarqui","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.622397298818232,6.39317438055166,10.096329715888308],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41791|2023|Ordinary election|5192","CO-CON-41791|2019|Ordinary election|5193","CO-CON-41791|2015|Ordinary election|5194"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41791|2023|Ordinary election|5192","CO-CON-41791|2019|Ordinary election|5193","CO-CON-41791|2015|Ordinary election|5194"],"shares":[[0.2201463140123804,0.19392234102419809],[0.20313230481533429,0.13920056100981767],[0.24314108035605414,0.14217778319717106]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":77.49488167477367,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[16.657287563308948,22.01463140123804,7.06809229037704,9.15025323579066,0,4.952166572875633,0,0,0,0,40.15756893640968],[20.313230481533427,11.6643291257597,7.959326788218794,13.69798971482001,5.808789153810192,7.620383356708742,0,11.430575035063114,0,7.585320243104254,13.920056100981768],[24.314108035605415,14.217778319717107,9.852457017436898,6.938178270942568,1.9753688574564077,11.266918668455066,0,13.900743811730276,5.401780270698695,0,12.132666747957566]],"volatility_latest":36.587815110906256,"volatility_previous":19.96594133635968,"volatility_mean":28.27687822363297,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-41797","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Tesalia (Carnicerias)","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.9297335955658852,10.223154682433723,0.9004739336492875],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41797|2023|Ordinary election|5195","CO-CON-41797|2019|Ordinary election|5196","CO-CON-41797|2015|Ordinary election|5197"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41797|2023|Ordinary election|5195","CO-CON-41797|2019|Ordinary election|5196","CO-CON-41797|2015|Ordinary election|5197"],"shares":[[0.1800464866797783,0.17074915072411945],[0.281327484264734,0.17909593744039673],[0.25971563981042656,0.25071090047393363]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":81.42583022282712,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-41799","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Tello","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.846950517836596,1.979211163320521,15.929337158387437],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41799|2023|Ordinary election|5198","CO-CON-41799|2019|Ordinary election|5199","CO-CON-41799|2015|Ordinary election|5200"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41799|2023|Ordinary election|5198","CO-CON-41799|2019|Ordinary election|5199","CO-CON-41799|2015|Ordinary election|5200"],"shares":[[0.32422324510932105,0.2557537399309551],[0.24134985049124308,0.22155773885803787],[0.330816850369923,0.1715234787860486]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":68.52566312231572,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-41801","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Teruel","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.5295675198587837,10.971524288107204,0.2025202520252023],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41801|2023|Ordinary election|5201","CO-CON-41801|2019|Ordinary election|5202","CO-CON-41801|2015|Ordinary election|5203"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41801|2023|Ordinary election|5201","CO-CON-41801|2019|Ordinary election|5202","CO-CON-41801|2015|Ordinary election|5203"],"shares":[[0.24558693733451015,0.2402912621359223],[0.27721943048576214,0.1675041876046901],[0.22457245724572455,0.22254725472547254]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":81.85275088225023,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-41807","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Timana","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.115365781999804,6.961048978017741,2.62139143900011],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41807|2023|Ordinary election|5204","CO-CON-41807|2019|Ordinary election|5205","CO-CON-41807|2015|Ordinary election|5206"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41807|2023|Ordinary election|5204","CO-CON-41807|2019|Ordinary election|5205","CO-CON-41807|2015|Ordinary election|5206"],"shares":[[0.17060033297424348,0.14944667515424542],[0.21654454300038567,0.14693405322020825],[0.19367326623161155,0.16745935184161045]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":81.90163346747393,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-41872","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Villavieja","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.41548630783758256,8.163672654690618,0.3768055264810535],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41872|2023|Ordinary election|5207","CO-CON-41872|2019|Ordinary election|5208","CO-CON-41872|2015|Ordinary election|5209"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41872|2023|Ordinary election|5207","CO-CON-41872|2019|Ordinary election|5208","CO-CON-41872|2015|Ordinary election|5209"],"shares":[[0.1907459867799811,0.18659112370160527],[0.22894211576846307,0.1473053892215569],[0.21666317772660665,0.21289512246179612]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.3196293312108,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-41885","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Yaguara","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.8061265618702151,5.1593011305241525,2.055067837190741],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-41885|2023|Ordinary election|5210","CO-CON-41885|2019|Ordinary election|5211","CO-CON-41885|2015|Ordinary election|5212"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-41885|2023|Ordinary election|5210","CO-CON-41885|2019|Ordinary election|5211","CO-CON-41885|2015|Ordinary election|5212"],"shares":[[0.230149133413946,0.22208786779524384],[0.21027749229188078,0.15868448098663926],[0.22126895450917797,0.20071827613727056]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":88.81513470000776,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-44001","country":"Colombia","region":"La Guajira","name":"Riohacha","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.19771692904573612,1.6074335322843183,1.3204802327626162],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-44001|2023|Ordinary election|5213","CO-CON-44001|2019|Ordinary election|5214","CO-CON-44001|2015|Ordinary election|5215"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-44001|2023|Ordinary election|5213","CO-CON-44001|2019|Ordinary election|5214","CO-CON-44001|2015|Ordinary election|5215"],"shares":[[0.11113183615608445,0.1091546668656271],[0.1431090613130765,0.12703472599023333],[0.12108132303806371,0.10787652071043756]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":96.335458798055,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-44035","country":"Colombia","region":"La Guajira","name":"Albania","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.7841356586032333,2.3506988564167717,4.593029163702877],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-44035|2023|Ordinary election|5216","CO-CON-44035|2019|Ordinary election|5217","CO-CON-44035|2015|Ordinary election|5218"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-44035|2023|Ordinary election|5216","CO-CON-44035|2019|Ordinary election|5217","CO-CON-44035|2015|Ordinary election|5218"],"shares":[[0.19834445069516998,0.18050309410913765],[0.18297331639135958,0.15946632782719186],[0.23198861904278023,0.18605832740575146]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":88.8250301577137,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-44090|2023|Ordinary election|5222","CO-CON-44090|2019|Ordinary election|5223","CO-CON-44090|2015|Ordinary election|5224"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-44090|2023|Ordinary election|5222","CO-CON-44090|2019|Ordinary election|5223","CO-CON-44090|2015|Ordinary election|5224"],"shares":[[0.1730952905738006,0.162589082359856],[0.153191156940864,0.14944144988672758],[0.1792825266048747,0.13980432543769308]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":94.31177141933708,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-44098|2023|Ordinary election|5225","CO-CON-44098|2019|Ordinary election|5226","CO-CON-44098|2015|Ordinary election|5227"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-44098|2023|Ordinary election|5225","CO-CON-44098|2019|Ordinary election|5226","CO-CON-44098|2015|Ordinary election|5227"],"shares":[[0.15996168582375478,0.15175150519978106],[0.17913415940033656,0.15389322319106624],[0.19813853588688027,0.1648469661714695]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":92.08622689564679,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-44110","country":"Colombia","region":"La Guajira","name":"El Molino","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.61598609904431,3.8091783058225985,2.746815286624205],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-44110|2023|Ordinary election|5228","CO-CON-44110|2019|Ordinary election|5229","CO-CON-44110|2015|Ordinary election|5230"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-44110|2023|Ordinary election|5228","CO-CON-44110|2019|Ordinary election|5229","CO-CON-44110|2015|Ordinary election|5230"],"shares":[[0.24170286707211122,0.22554300608166813],[0.2552149464901143,0.21712316343188828],[0.22452229299363058,0.19705414012738853]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":88.06486660082106,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-44279","country":"Colombia","region":"La Guajira","name":"Fonseca","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[null,0.06881219563836538,3.6327116212338577],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. MISSING ordinary-cycle return(s): [2023]; no zero or substitute election inserted. Known 2023-12-17 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-44279|CO-CON-44279-2023-12-17-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6808","CO-CON-44279|2019|Ordinary election|5231","CO-CON-44279|2015|Ordinary election|5232"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-44279|CO-CON-44279-2023-12-17-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6808","CO-CON-44279|2023|Ordinary election|6820","CO-CON-44279|2019|Ordinary election|5231","CO-CON-44279|2015|Ordinary election|5232"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.1671607029430447,0.16647258098666104],[0.18450502152080342,0.14817790530846486]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[16.71607029430447,14.275883972051663,11.406944738513657,8.17277154351048,0,12.402074952360788,10.919966123226763,16.647258098666104,0,0,9.45903027736608],[14.817790530846485,7.850789096126255,18.450502152080343,12.677187948350072,3.4146341463414633,8.814921090387374,11.529411764705882,9.526542324246773,0,0,12.918220946915351]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":19.031244275776135,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Mixed list-type source rows or prior outcome exclusion; vote comparison withheld":1,"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":2},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-44378","country":"Colombia","region":"La Guajira","name":"Hatonuevo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.510650771936682,2.5638263492405464,3.3394974437071667],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-44378|2023|Ordinary election|5233","CO-CON-44378|2019|Ordinary election|5234","CO-CON-44378|2015|Ordinary election|5235"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-44378|2023|Ordinary election|5233","CO-CON-44378|2019|Ordinary election|5234","CO-CON-44378|2015|Ordinary election|5235"],"shares":[[0.28376001563416064,0.16865350791479383],[0.18830119573413767,0.16266293224173223],[0.16893288371587076,0.13553790927879908]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":59.95255943847555,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-44420","country":"Colombia","region":"La Guajira","name":"La Jagua Del Pilar","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.196301564722617,1.6412213740458022,8.640674394099047],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-44420|2023|Ordinary election|5236","CO-CON-44420|2019|Ordinary election|5237","CO-CON-44420|2015|Ordinary election|5238"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-44420|2023|Ordinary election|5236","CO-CON-44420|2019|Ordinary election|5237","CO-CON-44420|2015|Ordinary election|5238"],"shares":[[0.31493598862019917,0.17297297297297298],[0.25725190839694656,0.24083969465648855],[0.32946961714085,0.24306287319985953]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":50.62892604771393,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-44430|2023|Ordinary election|5239","CO-CON-44430|2019|Ordinary election|5240","CO-CON-44430|2015|Ordinary election|5241"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-44430|2023|Ordinary election|5239","CO-CON-44430|2019|Ordinary election|5240","CO-CON-44430|2015|Ordinary election|5241"],"shares":[[0.13139115240785798,0.12433659388931527],[0.17964771142180555,0.15312875077042853],[0.13476550919978655,0.1300420956935908]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":93.66961767142084,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-44560","country":"Colombia","region":"La Guajira","name":"Manaure","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.7577078346611401,0.9227675846468699,1.9729598802131498],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-44560|2023|Ordinary election|5242","CO-CON-44560|2019|Ordinary election|5243","CO-CON-44560|2015|Ordinary election|5244"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-44560|2023|Ordinary election|5242","CO-CON-44560|2019|Ordinary election|5243","CO-CON-44560|2015|Ordinary election|5244"],"shares":[[0.1927047979707763,0.1751277196241649],[0.19640228358048184,0.18717460773401315],[0.19236358832078213,0.17263398951865064]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":92.3562451789397,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-44650|2023|Ordinary election|5245","CO-CON-44650|2019|Ordinary election|5246","CO-CON-44650|2015|Ordinary election|5247"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-44650|2023|Ordinary election|5245","CO-CON-44650|2019|Ordinary election|5246","CO-CON-44650|2015|Ordinary election|5247"],"shares":[[0.17201910408432147,0.15859683794466403],[0.1446051167964405,0.13054505005561734],[0.18303866880968137,0.14380259052661434]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":91.90250623282594,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-44847|2023|Ordinary election|5248","CO-CON-44847|2019|Ordinary election|5249","CO-CON-44847|2015|Ordinary election|5250"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-44847|2023|Ordinary election|5248","CO-CON-44847|2019|Ordinary election|5249","CO-CON-44847|2015|Ordinary election|5250"],"shares":[[0.12793530770846462,0.11480781348456207],[0.19219558881106713,0.18208117631704876],[0.165270396060415,0.1507972254751824]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":93.82093132946486,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-44855","country":"Colombia","region":"La Guajira","name":"Urumita","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.611025172268317,4.14304404709987,1.1412025208652707],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-44855|2023|Ordinary election|5251","CO-CON-44855|2019|Ordinary election|5252","CO-CON-44855|2015|Ordinary election|5253"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-44855|2023|Ordinary election|5251","CO-CON-44855|2019|Ordinary election|5252","CO-CON-44855|2015|Ordinary election|5253"],"shares":[[0.26030094220222194,0.20419069047953875],[0.20657072248873384,0.16514028201773512],[0.17577925396014307,0.16436722875149037]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":76.38175715211261,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-44874|2023|Ordinary election|5254","CO-CON-44874|2019|Ordinary election|5255","CO-CON-44874|2015|Ordinary election|5256"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-44874|2023|Ordinary election|5254","CO-CON-44874|2019|Ordinary election|5255","CO-CON-44874|2015|Ordinary election|5256"],"shares":[[0.15632640586797067,0.1558679706601467],[0.12572549019607843,0.12384313725490197],[0.2037344398340249,0.1503734439834025]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":96.91206670394521,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-47001|2023|Ordinary election|5257","CO-CON-47001|2019|Ordinary election|5258","CO-CON-47001|2015|Ordinary election|5259"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-47001|2023|Ordinary election|5257","CO-CON-47001|2019|Ordinary election|5258","CO-CON-47001|2015|Ordinary election|5259"],"shares":[[0.13113473899201059,0.09957249554474279],[0.09163901081254684,0.09108232523284444],[0.12867801208533727,0.11802318411641385]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":89.91508273041813,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-47030|2023|Ordinary election|5260","CO-CON-47030|2019|Ordinary election|5261","CO-CON-47030|2015|Ordinary election|5262"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-47030|2023|Ordinary election|5260","CO-CON-47030|2019|Ordinary election|5261","CO-CON-47030|2015|Ordinary election|5262"],"shares":[[0.1758492720525264,0.12103910933485583],[0.1711738484398217,0.15185735512630014],[0.18136237897648688,0.1481673582295989]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":78.9997261503262,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-47053|2023|Ordinary election|5263","CO-CON-47053|2019|Ordinary election|5264","CO-CON-47053|2015|Ordinary election|5265"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-47053|2023|Ordinary election|5263","CO-CON-47053|2019|Ordinary election|5264","CO-CON-47053|2015|Ordinary election|5265"],"shares":[[0.1781931794111417,0.1725270069900445],[0.17578397212543553,0.15714285714285714],[0.24124334625747518,0.13839784451600184]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":90.36170593921041,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-47058|2023|Ordinary election|5266","CO-CON-47058|2019|Ordinary election|5267","CO-CON-47058|2015|Ordinary election|5268"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-47058|2023|Ordinary election|5266","CO-CON-47058|2019|Ordinary election|5267","CO-CON-47058|2015|Ordinary election|5268"],"shares":[[0.23743016759776536,0.18845437616387337],[0.2150140286046671,0.1579415588859235],[0.23205546492659054,0.21818923327895598]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":76.05308052963913,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-47161","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Cerro De San Antonio","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.6319816373374145,5.964246163581713,2.7151730257320317],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-47161|2023|Ordinary election|5269","CO-CON-47161|2019|Ordinary election|5270","CO-CON-47161|2015|Ordinary election|5271"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-47161|2023|Ordinary election|5269","CO-CON-47161|2019|Ordinary election|5270","CO-CON-47161|2015|Ordinary election|5271"],"shares":[[0.2815608263198164,0.2552410099464422],[0.2899857617465591,0.23034330011074197],[0.28695652173913044,0.2598047914818101]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":81.80009932974916,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-47170|2023|Ordinary election|5272","CO-CON-47170|2019|Ordinary election|5273","CO-CON-47170|2015|Ordinary election|5274"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-47170|2023|Ordinary election|5272","CO-CON-47170|2019|Ordinary election|5273","CO-CON-47170|2015|Ordinary election|5274"],"shares":[[0.19129251700680272,0.13723356009070295],[0.2027819175360159,0.16512667660208646],[0.21632519616390586,0.1770924149956408]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":76.1723877266674,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-47189|2023|Ordinary election|5275","CO-CON-47189|2019|Ordinary election|5276","CO-CON-47189|2015|Ordinary election|5277"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-47189|2023|Ordinary election|5275","CO-CON-47189|2019|Ordinary election|5276","CO-CON-47189|2015|Ordinary election|5277"],"shares":[[0.10741687979539641,0.10228415204162625],[0.11069994634299776,0.11053342461191186],[0.12567107434563723,0.11794196904179984]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":98.0487481490142,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-47205","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Concordia","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.591456967646437,3.001833180568287,4.72578037557518],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-47205|2023|Ordinary election|5278","CO-CON-47205|2019|Ordinary election|5279","CO-CON-47205|2015|Ordinary election|5280"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-47205|2023|Ordinary election|5278","CO-CON-47205|2019|Ordinary election|5279","CO-CON-47205|2015|Ordinary election|5280"],"shares":[[0.2961514062169592,0.2202368365404948],[0.2422089825847846,0.21219065077910174],[0.33677403308046266,0.2895162293247109]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":70.35998913842067,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-47245|2023|Ordinary election|5281","CO-CON-47245|2019|Ordinary election|5282","CO-CON-47245|2015|Ordinary election|5283"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-47245|2023|Ordinary election|5281","CO-CON-47245|2019|Ordinary election|5282","CO-CON-47245|2015|Ordinary election|5283"],"shares":[[0.1244183360285139,0.11966601762318076],[0.18309655496511584,0.13259588620178578],[0.21318944844124701,0.1447242206235012]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.57594277301325,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-47258|2023|Ordinary election|5284","CO-CON-47258|2019|Ordinary election|5285","CO-CON-47258|2015|Ordinary election|5286"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-47258|2023|Ordinary election|5284","CO-CON-47258|2019|Ordinary election|5285","CO-CON-47258|2015|Ordinary election|5286"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.1674062121823316,0.15328761597418314],[0.23801933907129955,0.1641695887790883]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-47268|2023|Ordinary election|5287","CO-CON-47268|2019|Ordinary election|5288","CO-CON-47268|2015|Ordinary election|5289"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-47268|2023|Ordinary election|5287","CO-CON-47268|2019|Ordinary election|5288","CO-CON-47268|2015|Ordinary election|5289"],"shares":[[0.19503717292652312,0.18702326928647292],[0.14846818538884526,0.1308915946582875],[0.15691680652121792,0.14037401102853034]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":94.1322005237669,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-47288|2023|Ordinary election|5290","CO-CON-47288|2019|Ordinary election|5291","CO-CON-47288|2015|Ordinary election|5292"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-47288|2023|Ordinary election|5290","CO-CON-47288|2019|Ordinary election|5291","CO-CON-47288|2015|Ordinary election|5292"],"shares":[[0.1498244851045323,0.13643564971575906],[0.14331129996852376,0.13827510229776518],[0.13795625522429644,0.12385065477848983]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":94.5226397104639,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-47318|2023|Ordinary election|5293","CO-CON-47318|2019|Ordinary election|5294","CO-CON-47318|2015|Ordinary election|5295"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-47318|2023|Ordinary election|5293","CO-CON-47318|2019|Ordinary election|5294","CO-CON-47318|2015|Ordinary election|5295"],"shares":[[0.1712260915949097,0.16116741598719805],[0.25886205485059355,0.17200163733115023],[0.21405550581915847,0.20017905102954342]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":83.25951195028925,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-47460","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Nueva Granada","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.1828403390416877,8.132561809573911,2.0322282664477065],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-47460|2023|Ordinary election|5296","CO-CON-47460|2019|Ordinary election|5297","CO-CON-47460|2015|Ordinary election|5298"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-47460|2023|Ordinary election|5296","CO-CON-47460|2019|Ordinary election|5297","CO-CON-47460|2015|Ordinary election|5298"],"shares":[[0.18889465490399585,0.15706625151357895],[0.2412414518674382,0.1599158337716991],[0.20599404700810842,0.18567176434363133]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":77.23652213529022,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-47541","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Pedraza","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.269877385918338,4.845814977973568,2.7297543221110097],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-47541|2023|Ordinary election|5299","CO-CON-47541|2019|Ordinary election|5300","CO-CON-47541|2015|Ordinary election|5301"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-47541|2023|Ordinary election|5299","CO-CON-47541|2019|Ordinary election|5300","CO-CON-47541|2015|Ordinary election|5301"],"shares":[[0.35292630514473516,0.20022753128555176],[0.22836435981242004,0.17990621003268437],[0.251289050652108,0.22399150743099788]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":45.55676821422912,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-47545|2023|Ordinary election|5302","CO-CON-47545|2019|Ordinary election|5303","CO-CON-47545|2015|Ordinary election|5304"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-47545|2023|Ordinary election|5302","CO-CON-47545|2019|Ordinary election|5303","CO-CON-47545|2015|Ordinary election|5304"],"shares":[[0.26409110566527316,0.2117630099466628],[0.3286278938452851,0.30773574251835123],[0.3364203364203365,0.2218862218862219]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.44104285867108,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-47551|2023|Ordinary election|5305","CO-CON-47551|2019|Ordinary election|5306","CO-CON-47551|2015|Ordinary election|5307"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-47551|2023|Ordinary election|5305","CO-CON-47551|2019|Ordinary election|5306","CO-CON-47551|2015|Ordinary election|5307"],"shares":[[0.1465693987507748,0.1413245601487627],[0.15219780219780218,0.12777222777222777],[0.20847683590712143,0.19603377402510833]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":94.14055916145955,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-47555|2023|Ordinary election|5308","CO-CON-47555|2019|Ordinary election|5309","CO-CON-47555|2015|Ordinary election|5310"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-47555|2023|Ordinary election|5308","CO-CON-47555|2019|Ordinary election|5309","CO-CON-47555|2015|Ordinary election|5310"],"shares":[[0.2020897135651234,0.19041614123581335],[0.20231471177387048,0.19719563765858003],[0.22929936305732482,0.14479830148619957]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":91.50501410535716,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-47570","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Puebloviejo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.805816419266888,0.1287995878413195,6.891670391893905],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-47570|2023|Ordinary election|5311","CO-CON-47570|2019|Ordinary election|5312","CO-CON-47570|2015|Ordinary election|5313"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-47570|2023|Ordinary election|5311","CO-CON-47570|2019|Ordinary election|5312","CO-CON-47570|2015|Ordinary election|5313"],"shares":[[0.14365343835201455,0.13559527415934566],[0.15224111282843894,0.15095311695002575],[0.2193413798241693,0.15042467590523023]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":93.9435161644904,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-47605|2023|Ordinary election|5314","CO-CON-47605|2019|Ordinary election|5315","CO-CON-47605|2015|Ordinary election|5316"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-47605|2023|Ordinary election|5314","CO-CON-47605|2019|Ordinary election|5315","CO-CON-47605|2015|Ordinary election|5316"],"shares":[[0.19921386457030552,0.15812042165445775],[0.2597826086956522,0.1289855072463768],[0.2686843730697962,0.19682931850936794]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":64.45964917983295,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-47660|2023|Ordinary election|5317","CO-CON-47660|2019|Ordinary election|5318","CO-CON-47660|2015|Ordinary election|5319"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-47660|2023|Ordinary election|5317","CO-CON-47660|2019|Ordinary election|5318","CO-CON-47660|2015|Ordinary election|5319"],"shares":[[0.21133612399592713,0.19459214843308067],[0.23535366316588635,0.2033405036062255],[0.239638281838734,0.2052248178849535]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":88.4541601995079,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-47675|2023|Ordinary election|5320","CO-CON-47675|2019|Ordinary election|5321","CO-CON-47675|2015|Ordinary election|5322"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-47675|2023|Ordinary election|5320","CO-CON-47675|2019|Ordinary election|5321","CO-CON-47675|2015|Ordinary election|5322"],"shares":[[0.2766393442622951,0.2604035308953342],[0.23390275952693823,0.2033508541392904],[0.3144137415982076,0.2546676624346527]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.5591662235868,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-47692|2023|Ordinary election|5323","CO-CON-47692|2019|Ordinary election|5324","CO-CON-47692|2015|Ordinary election|5325"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-47692|2023|Ordinary election|5323","CO-CON-47692|2019|Ordinary election|5324","CO-CON-47692|2015|Ordinary election|5325"],"shares":[[0.19534718522464928,0.17101758124667021],[0.13401598850264979,0.1316805892391988],[0.278766914233391,0.19676467595889716]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":88.25069700336394,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[13.061623157520867,17.101758124667022,0,6.544130705025751,0,7.6806961463328,1.7581246670218433,6.437577694903214,0,0,47.4160895045285],[13.168058923919878,13.401598850264978,8.353543519267044,10.787748136171741,8.640977274768705,7.383454594448936,12.45845684002515,0,0,9.188897871193749,16.61726398993982],[9.187099399735477,19.676467595889715,27.8766914233391,17.163495777800385,11.4151999186082,0,0.3153932241326686,0,0,0,14.365652660494455]],"volatility_latest":41.23380403577781,"volatility_previous":34.947986935164934,"volatility_mean":38.09089548547137,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-47703","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"San Zenon","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":2,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2015],"gaps":[0.7247470934621774,13.74299719887955,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. MISSING ordinary-cycle return(s): [2019]; no zero or substitute election inserted. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-47703|2023|Ordinary election|5326","CO-CON-47703|2015|Ordinary election|5327"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-47703|2023|Ordinary election|5326","CO-CON-47703|2015|Ordinary election|5327"],"shares":[[0.22391665408425188,0.2166691831496301],[0.40108543417366943,0.26365546218487396],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[12.985052091197343,0,0,0,22.391665408425187,0,0,0.9512305601691077,0,0,63.67205194020836],[3.1862745098039214,26.365546218487395,21.20098039215686,40.108543417366946,0,8.543417366946779,0,0,0,0,0.5952380952380952],null],"volatility_latest":96.21848739495798,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":2},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-47707","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Santa Ana","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.026521848951752,4.3835122215207,2.074521651560925],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-47707|2023|Ordinary election|5328","CO-CON-47707|2019|Ordinary election|5329","CO-CON-47707|2015|Ordinary election|5330"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-47707|2023|Ordinary election|5328","CO-CON-47707|2019|Ordinary election|5329","CO-CON-47707|2015|Ordinary election|5330"],"shares":[[0.23238191462490526,0.18211669613538775],[0.24470100117254442,0.20086587895733743],[0.28449144008056393,0.2637462235649547]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":77.30790529508323,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-47720|2023|Ordinary election|5331","CO-CON-47720|2019|Ordinary election|5332","CO-CON-47720|2015|Ordinary election|5333"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-47720|2023|Ordinary election|5331","CO-CON-47720|2019|Ordinary election|5332","CO-CON-47720|2015|Ordinary election|5333"],"shares":[[0.3355085150405857,0.24096769059366543],[0.2641446267157683,0.19049213257448944],[0.2718550106609808,0.23365316275764036]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":58.679786149565075,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-47745|2023|Ordinary election|5334","CO-CON-47745|2019|Ordinary election|5335","CO-CON-47745|2015|Ordinary election|5336"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-47745|2023|Ordinary election|5334","CO-CON-47745|2019|Ordinary election|5335","CO-CON-47745|2015|Ordinary election|5336"],"shares":[[0.22498546605516437,0.13093469414120534],[0.14464978325347935,0.14191193246634726],[0.22947214076246333,0.16440615835777128]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":68.12079168750788,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-47798","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Tenerife","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.74808156106117,4.564414253366699,9.988839285714288],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-47798|2023|Ordinary election|5337","CO-CON-47798|2019|Ordinary election|5338","CO-CON-47798|2015|Ordinary election|5339"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-47798|2023|Ordinary election|5337","CO-CON-47798|2019|Ordinary election|5338","CO-CON-47798|2015|Ordinary election|5339"],"shares":[[0.29719359789519845,0.20971278228458673],[0.35383148611607673,0.30818734358240973],[0.3754185267857143,0.2755301339285714]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":61.9147142939093,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-47960|2023|Ordinary election|5340","CO-CON-47960|2019|Ordinary election|5341","CO-CON-47960|2015|Ordinary election|5342"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-47960|2023|Ordinary election|5340","CO-CON-47960|2019|Ordinary election|5341","CO-CON-47960|2015|Ordinary election|5342"],"shares":[[0.2701643298658224,0.23865520880446256],[0.2553363518758085,0.25485122897800777],[0.2520477815699659,0.23532423208191125]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":89.63831777251919,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-47980|2023|Ordinary election|5343","CO-CON-47980|2019|Ordinary election|5344","CO-CON-47980|2015|Ordinary election|5345"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-47980|2023|Ordinary election|5343","CO-CON-47980|2019|Ordinary election|5344","CO-CON-47980|2015|Ordinary election|5345"],"shares":[[0.13209535576713424,0.12740751508103787],[0.16079545454545452,0.10703125],[0.13487619758616398,0.11577703123055867]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":89.57405879457264,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-50001|2023|Ordinary election|5346","CO-CON-50001|2019|Ordinary election|5347","CO-CON-50001|2015|Ordinary election|5348"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-50001|2023|Ordinary election|5346","CO-CON-50001|2019|Ordinary election|5347","CO-CON-50001|2015|Ordinary election|5348"],"shares":[[0.14425662696888206,0.13647467911778322],[0.1223860757664782,0.09924483957657076],[0.13317344105023984,0.1090212909198014]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":92.98662270966231,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-50006","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Acacias","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.9169292717086819,0.22461283839697366,5.068848533226902],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-50006|2023|Ordinary election|5349","CO-CON-50006|2019|Ordinary election|5350","CO-CON-50006|2015|Ordinary election|5351"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-50006|2023|Ordinary election|5349","CO-CON-50006|2019|Ordinary election|5350","CO-CON-50006|2015|Ordinary election|5351"],"shares":[[0.14648984593837533,0.13732055322128853],[0.11701146707648657,0.11476533869251684],[0.1643527097528295,0.11366422442056048]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":94.37786866066504,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-50110","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Barranca De Upia","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.094726062467998,2.7580071174377245,13.478413478413476],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-50110|2023|Ordinary election|5352","CO-CON-50110|2019|Ordinary election|5353","CO-CON-50110|2015|Ordinary election|5354"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-50110|2023|Ordinary election|5352","CO-CON-50110|2019|Ordinary election|5353","CO-CON-50110|2015|Ordinary election|5354"],"shares":[[0.289810547875064,0.23886328725038403],[0.21204033214709372,0.18446026097271648],[0.34538434538434537,0.2106002106002106]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":73.83960439723268,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-50124","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Cabuyaro","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.429179978700745,0.7778065854290901,1.7101990049751237],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-50124|2023|Ordinary election|5355","CO-CON-50124|2019|Ordinary election|5356","CO-CON-50124|2015|Ordinary election|5357"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-50124|2023|Ordinary election|5355","CO-CON-50124|2019|Ordinary election|5356","CO-CON-50124|2015|Ordinary election|5357"],"shares":[[0.20702875399361023,0.1727369542066028],[0.15582058594762768,0.1480425200933368],[0.17133084577114427,0.15422885572139303]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.69065068326657,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,20.702875399361023,12.843450479233226,16.698615548455805,10.60702875399361,2.066027689030884,11.821086261980831,0,0,0,25.260915867944625],[0,15.582058594762769,7.363235675395385,14.804252009333679,12.36712470832253,5.289084780917812,8.037334716100597,12.211563391236712,0,7.933627171376718,16.411718952553798],[2.8606965174129355,13.837064676616915,15.422885572139304,8.61318407960199,17.133084577114428,0,12.531094527363184,7.960199004975125,0,11.536069651741293,10.105721393034825]],"volatility_latest":25.12834360882928,"volatility_previous":23.782508574575914,"volatility_mean":24.4554260917026,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-50150","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Castilla La Nueva","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.273860705073087,1.0206274172754632,7.451621010304098],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-50150|2023|Ordinary election|5358","CO-CON-50150|2019|Ordinary election|5359","CO-CON-50150|2015|Ordinary election|5360"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-50150|2023|Ordinary election|5358","CO-CON-50150|2019|Ordinary election|5359","CO-CON-50150|2015|Ordinary election|5360"],"shares":[[0.29825881341358557,0.1655202063628547],[0.2692307692307692,0.2590244950580146],[0.3058557426489068,0.23133953254586578]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":54.92166625371549,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-50223","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Cubarral","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.2397959183673457,0.13974287311346956,8.573159648591336],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-50223|2023|Ordinary election|5361","CO-CON-50223|2019|Ordinary election|5362","CO-CON-50223|2015|Ordinary election|5363"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-50223|2023|Ordinary election|5361","CO-CON-50223|2019|Ordinary election|5362","CO-CON-50223|2015|Ordinary election|5363"],"shares":[[0.25943877551020406,0.22704081632653061],[0.17970933482392396,0.17831190609278927],[0.25234777340199943,0.16661617691608605]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":85.7844181109321,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-50226","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Cumaral","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.3823138297872326,2.709699689333794,6.140350877192985],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-50226|2023|Ordinary election|5364","CO-CON-50226|2019|Ordinary election|5365","CO-CON-50226|2015|Ordinary election|5366"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-50226|2023|Ordinary election|5364","CO-CON-50226|2019|Ordinary election|5365","CO-CON-50226|2015|Ordinary election|5366"],"shares":[[0.21791888297872342,0.21409574468085107],[0.16439420089748016,0.13729720400414222],[0.18775872264931995,0.1263552138773901]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":91.71833353804112,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-50245","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"El Calvario","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.56836902800659,0.6177606177606201,6.268221574344022],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-50245|2023|Ordinary election|5367","CO-CON-50245|2019|Ordinary election|5368","CO-CON-50245|2015|Ordinary election|5369"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-50245|2023|Ordinary election|5367","CO-CON-50245|2019|Ordinary election|5368","CO-CON-50245|2015|Ordinary election|5369"],"shares":[[0.4612850082372323,0.3056013179571664],[0.267953667953668,0.2617760617760618],[0.2879008746355685,0.2252186588921283]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":49.234141202167294,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-50251|2023|Ordinary election|5370","CO-CON-50251|2019|Ordinary election|5371","CO-CON-50251|2015|Ordinary election|5372"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-50251|2023|Ordinary election|5370","CO-CON-50251|2019|Ordinary election|5371","CO-CON-50251|2015|Ordinary election|5372"],"shares":[[0.22969896281305338,0.14545914495320011],[0.22471910112359553,0.15858018386108275],[0.3006971809639285,0.20187935738102458]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":59.866325873521895,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-50270","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"El Dorado","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.548660084626235,2.0488573680063027,9.27634774162215],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-50270|2023|Ordinary election|5373","CO-CON-50270|2019|Ordinary election|5374","CO-CON-50270|2015|Ordinary election|5375"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-50270|2023|Ordinary election|5373","CO-CON-50270|2019|Ordinary election|5374","CO-CON-50270|2015|Ordinary election|5375"],"shares":[[0.24188998589562766,0.1964033850493653],[0.21315996847911742,0.19267139479905437],[0.284604176784847,0.19184069936862552]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":78.64255982330077,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-50287","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Fuente De Oro","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.7153965785381011,0.6210137630077206,0.24921083236418085],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-50287|2023|Ordinary election|5376","CO-CON-50287|2019|Ordinary election|5377","CO-CON-50287|2015|Ordinary election|5378"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-50287|2023|Ordinary election|5376","CO-CON-50287|2019|Ordinary election|5377","CO-CON-50287|2015|Ordinary election|5378"],"shares":[[0.20948678071539656,0.20233281493001556],[0.1906680093991272,0.18445787176905],[0.1686326632330952,0.1661405549094534]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":96.79768420369203,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-50313","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Granada","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.7084176687700907,9.308881077137361,4.695126393239601],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-50313|2023|Ordinary election|5379","CO-CON-50313|2019|Ordinary election|5380","CO-CON-50313|2015|Ordinary election|5381"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-50313|2023|Ordinary election|5379","CO-CON-50313|2019|Ordinary election|5380","CO-CON-50313|2015|Ordinary election|5381"],"shares":[[0.13584950589355876,0.12876532920585784],[0.23413145851296677,0.14104264774159314],[0.18292416405623954,0.13597290012384353]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":81.56386218136389,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-50318|2023|Ordinary election|5382","CO-CON-50318|2019|Ordinary election|5383"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-50318|2023|Ordinary election|5382","CO-CON-50318|2019|Ordinary election|5383"],"shares":[[0.23120176405733187,0.1511576626240353],[0.17739312267657995,0.17344330855018586],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-50325|2023|Ordinary election|5384","CO-CON-50325|2019|Ordinary election|5385","CO-CON-50325|2015|Ordinary election|5386"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-50325|2023|Ordinary election|5384","CO-CON-50325|2019|Ordinary election|5385","CO-CON-50325|2015|Ordinary election|5386"],"shares":[[0.21593423964590577,0.1874802402782169],[0.23818181818181816,0.15018181818181817],[0.2523027633159792,0.1525830997196636]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":73.27781700987755,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-50330|2023|Ordinary election|5387","CO-CON-50330|2019|Ordinary election|5388","CO-CON-50330|2015|Ordinary election|5389"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-50330|2023|Ordinary election|5387","CO-CON-50330|2019|Ordinary election|5388","CO-CON-50330|2015|Ordinary election|5389"],"shares":[[0.30069124423963134,0.15964450296247532],[0.2722057735011103,0.135640266469282],[0.2393103448275862,0.1974712643678161]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":35.10919753909045,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-50350|2023|Ordinary election|5390","CO-CON-50350|2019|Ordinary election|5391","CO-CON-50350|2015|Ordinary election|5392"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-50350|2023|Ordinary election|5390","CO-CON-50350|2019|Ordinary election|5391","CO-CON-50350|2015|Ordinary election|5392"],"shares":[[0.2642183945401365,0.15567110822229446],[0.215311004784689,0.19470003680529996],[0.24329896907216494,0.14891179839633448]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":59.62481037394751,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-50370","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Uribe","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.1710811984368235,5.530201342281877,8.650519031141869],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-50370|2023|Ordinary election|5393","CO-CON-50370|2019|Ordinary election|5394","CO-CON-50370|2015|Ordinary election|5395"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-50370|2023|Ordinary election|5393","CO-CON-50370|2019|Ordinary election|5394","CO-CON-50370|2015|Ordinary election|5395"],"shares":[[0.21124620060790275,0.1895353886235345],[0.21637583892617449,0.16107382550335572],[0.30565167243367936,0.21914648212226065]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.86619487569577,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,14.654798089448546,0,0,0,18.95353886235345,21.124620060790274,15.067303517151542,0,0,30.19973947025619],[0,12.778523489932885,3.0604026845637584,0,0,12.885906040268456,11.570469798657719,8.483221476510067,4.832214765100671,21.63758389261745,24.751677852348994],[0,21.914648212226066,12.341407151095732,4.57516339869281,0,8.381391772395233,5.690119184928873,30.565167243367934,3.2679738562091503,13.264129181084199,0]],"volatility_latest":29.53020134228188,"volatility_previous":45.07423835437583,"volatility_mean":37.30221984832885,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-50400","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Lejanias","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.311195445920305,12.42173298323571,0.8671415298854122],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-50400|2023|Ordinary election|5396","CO-CON-50400|2019|Ordinary election|5397","CO-CON-50400|2015|Ordinary election|5398"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-50400|2023|Ordinary election|5396","CO-CON-50400|2019|Ordinary election|5397","CO-CON-50400|2015|Ordinary election|5398"],"shares":[[0.22580645161290325,0.1426944971537002],[0.2823671985457483,0.15814986871339123],[0.20377825952307216,0.19510684422421803]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":56.00024342244281,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-50450","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Puerto Concordia","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.282480114215787,1.4602092966658553,2.537485582468282],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-50450|2023|Ordinary election|5399","CO-CON-50450|2019|Ordinary election|5400","CO-CON-50450|2015|Ordinary election|5401"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-50450|2023|Ordinary election|5399","CO-CON-50450|2019|Ordinary election|5400","CO-CON-50450|2015|Ordinary election|5401"],"shares":[[0.19579849071996736,0.1429736895778095],[0.14212703820880992,0.12752494524215138],[0.15369088811995385,0.12831603229527105]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.69350292111972,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-50568|2023|Ordinary election|5402","CO-CON-50568|2019|Ordinary election|5403","CO-CON-50568|2015|Ordinary election|5404"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-50568|2023|Ordinary election|5402","CO-CON-50568|2019|Ordinary election|5403","CO-CON-50568|2015|Ordinary election|5404"],"shares":[[0.12624196376388078,0.11614390544840575],[0.15310016612041485,0.12562295155569525],[0.16895961924592848,0.14322897300513124]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":91.56246800860968,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-50573|2023|Ordinary election|5405","CO-CON-50573|2019|Ordinary election|5406","CO-CON-50573|2015|Ordinary election|5407"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-50573|2023|Ordinary election|5405","CO-CON-50573|2019|Ordinary election|5406","CO-CON-50573|2015|Ordinary election|5407"],"shares":[[0.13128167552054712,0.13012151187641202],[0.1512883914627798,0.13053097345132744],[0.15565365992594704,0.1466818570207918]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":96.08974805978386,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-50577|2023|Ordinary election|5408","CO-CON-50577|2019|Ordinary election|5409","CO-CON-50577|2015|Ordinary election|5410"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-50577|2023|Ordinary election|5408","CO-CON-50577|2019|Ordinary election|5409","CO-CON-50577|2015|Ordinary election|5410"],"shares":[[0.16520833333333332,0.16208333333333333],[0.22723112128146453,0.15240274599542333],[0.19659442724458207,0.18988648090815274]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.50284639027235,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-50590","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Puerto Rico","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.687998516045262,2.584869894881958,2.5571725571725565],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-50590|2023|Ordinary election|5411","CO-CON-50590|2019|Ordinary election|5412","CO-CON-50590|2015|Ordinary election|5413"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-50590|2023|Ordinary election|5411","CO-CON-50590|2019|Ordinary election|5412","CO-CON-50590|2015|Ordinary election|5413"],"shares":[[0.19940641810424783,0.1825264329437952],[0.19248664483887645,0.16663794589005687],[0.17089397089397088,0.14532224532224533]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":89.780113330955,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-50606","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Restrepo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.838278640204361,1.438411669367909,6.895360884079661],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-50606|2023|Ordinary election|5414","CO-CON-50606|2019|Ordinary election|5415","CO-CON-50606|2015|Ordinary election|5416"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-50606|2023|Ordinary election|5414","CO-CON-50606|2019|Ordinary election|5415","CO-CON-50606|2015|Ordinary election|5416"],"shares":[[0.19610925525643544,0.12772646885439184],[0.17260940032414912,0.15822528363047003],[0.24565442615402325,0.17670081731322665]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":73.87986613329522,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-50680","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"San Carlos De Guaroa","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.204460966542751,9.329710144927535,5.3271362173757595],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-50680|2023|Ordinary election|5417","CO-CON-50680|2019|Ordinary election|5418","CO-CON-50680|2015|Ordinary election|5419"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-50680|2023|Ordinary election|5417","CO-CON-50680|2019|Ordinary election|5418","CO-CON-50680|2015|Ordinary election|5419"],"shares":[[0.23110285006195788,0.17905824039653037],[0.2841183574879227,0.19082125603864736],[0.2202359671076153,0.1669646049338577]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":67.72848377429257,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-50683|2023|Ordinary election|5420","CO-CON-50683|2019|Ordinary election|5421","CO-CON-50683|2015|Ordinary election|5422"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-50683|2023|Ordinary election|5420","CO-CON-50683|2019|Ordinary election|5421","CO-CON-50683|2015|Ordinary election|5422"],"shares":[[0.16100081588251292,0.16100081588251292],[0.23185540807681446,0.19344817848065518],[0.2031164570803718,0.18234007654455986]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":93.20009653378551,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-50686|2023|Ordinary election|5423","CO-CON-50686|2019|Ordinary election|5424","CO-CON-50686|2015|Ordinary election|5425"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-50686|2023|Ordinary election|5423","CO-CON-50686|2019|Ordinary election|5424","CO-CON-50686|2015|Ordinary election|5425"],"shares":[[0.33529411764705885,0.27983193277310925],[0.26373626373626374,0.2042124542124542],[0.3721881390593047,0.24948875255623723]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":68.29780378409032,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-50689|2023|Ordinary election|5426","CO-CON-50689|2019|Ordinary election|5427","CO-CON-50689|2015|Ordinary election|5428"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-50689|2023|Ordinary election|5426","CO-CON-50689|2019|Ordinary election|5427","CO-CON-50689|2015|Ordinary election|5428"],"shares":[[0.19879734338538863,0.1387542631484473],[0.24085670206007806,0.13567474362464835],[0.28753450838819283,0.15714589084731365]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":59.690351286559185,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-50711","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Vista Hermosa","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.5874999999999986,6.016797466611591,13.716660893661242],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-50711|2023|Ordinary election|5429","CO-CON-50711|2019|Ordinary election|5430","CO-CON-50711|2015|Ordinary election|5431"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-50711|2023|Ordinary election|5429","CO-CON-50711|2019|Ordinary election|5430","CO-CON-50711|2015|Ordinary election|5431"],"shares":[[0.22625,0.20037500000000003],[0.2187801184083712,0.15861214374225527],[0.2393488049878767,0.10218219605126429]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":76.353973353252,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52001","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Pasto","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.1463178963351499,2.1414517128918362,2.8102061269265146],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52001|2023|Ordinary election|5432","CO-CON-52001|2019|Ordinary election|5433","CO-CON-52001|2015|Ordinary election|5434"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52001|2023|Ordinary election|5432","CO-CON-52001|2019|Ordinary election|5433","CO-CON-52001|2015|Ordinary election|5434"],"shares":[[0.13956794809855752,0.13810476913520603],[0.1261354141397806,0.10472089701086224],[0.15800807172458625,0.1299060104553211]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":94.94376567819354,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[13.956794809855753,0,0,8.795638070260198,4.8105459313962315,3.3363241079439576,3.628959900614259,3.542687556077024,0,0,61.929049623852585],[12.61354141397806,7.9297053987763135,9.818468504892051,8.215411983504488,5.6460742298051265,0,0,9.395973154362416,0,6.409530740411309,39.97129457427024],[9.453127116119072,8.601262222703756,15.800807172458626,12.990601045532111,6.418781657141309,5.6237980443673985,6.362577534602779,11.98502126276443,5.382729759744305,5.905495815162924,11.475798369403288]],"volatility_latest":30.846518540773964,"volatility_previous":32.15994542797432,"volatility_mean":31.503231984374143,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52019","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Alban (San Jose)","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.69925290096964,3.0941047235444863,5.828532700779398],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52019|2023|Ordinary election|5435","CO-CON-52019|2019|Ordinary election|5436","CO-CON-52019|2015|Ordinary election|5437"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52019|2023|Ordinary election|5435","CO-CON-52019|2019|Ordinary election|5436","CO-CON-52019|2015|Ordinary election|5437"],"shares":[[0.33476394849785407,0.21777141948815767],[0.25155620651775906,0.22061515928231418],[0.2934598441206371,0.2351745171128431]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":57.34681786138466,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52022","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Aldana","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[52.303641948222904,21.783295711060948,24.221698113207545],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52022|2023|Ordinary election|5438","CO-CON-52022|2019|Ordinary election|5439","CO-CON-52022|2015|Ordinary election|5440"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52022|2023|Ordinary election|5438","CO-CON-52022|2019|Ordinary election|5439","CO-CON-52022|2015|Ordinary election|5440"],"shares":[[0.651601579640193,0.12856516015796401],[0.4309255079006772,0.21309255079006773],[0.46226415094339623,0.22004716981132078]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52036","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Ancuya","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.1170251549398493,4.517416545718433,1.0224144710971306],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52036|2023|Ordinary election|5441","CO-CON-52036|2019|Ordinary election|5442","CO-CON-52036|2015|Ordinary election|5443"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52036|2023|Ordinary election|5441","CO-CON-52036|2019|Ordinary election|5442","CO-CON-52036|2015|Ordinary election|5443"],"shares":[[0.2121764491432738,0.18100619759387532],[0.19067489114658925,0.14550072568940492],[0.16889500589854503,0.15867086118757373]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":83.36159248105423,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52051|2023|Ordinary election|5444","CO-CON-52051|2019|Ordinary election|5445","CO-CON-52051|2015|Ordinary election|5446"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52051|2023|Ordinary election|5444","CO-CON-52051|2019|Ordinary election|5445","CO-CON-52051|2015|Ordinary election|5446"],"shares":[[0.22896117523609655,0.2266526757607555],[0.2951683077627662,0.20998397068926036],[0.5799721835883171,0.2308762169680111]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":69.07500126535652,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52079|2023|Ordinary election|5447","CO-CON-52079|2019|Ordinary election|5448","CO-CON-52079|2015|Ordinary election|5449"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52079|2023|Ordinary election|5447","CO-CON-52079|2019|Ordinary election|5448","CO-CON-52079|2015|Ordinary election|5449"],"shares":[[0.17696189316164954,0.1761788759352706],[0.21282442748091604,0.19328244274809162],[0.25745931283905965,0.16591320072332733]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":92.25649151637603,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52083","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Belen","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.425925925925927,18.246325392802838,3.6336485813837704],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52083|2023|Ordinary election|5450","CO-CON-52083|2019|Ordinary election|5451","CO-CON-52083|2015|Ordinary election|5452"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52083|2023|Ordinary election|5450","CO-CON-52083|2019|Ordinary election|5451","CO-CON-52083|2015|Ordinary election|5452"],"shares":[[0.33217592592592593,0.19791666666666669],[0.3938165230613279,0.21135326913329955],[0.3245395719263315,0.2882030861124938]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":30.53590984232608,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[33.217592592592595,0,8.587962962962964,0,0,19.791666666666668,0,19.537037037037038,0,0,18.86574074074074],[21.135326913329955,39.38165230613279,14.59706031424227,17.15661429295489,0,7.729346173340091,0,0,0,0,0],[20.63215530114485,32.45395719263315,28.820308611249377,0,0,10.378297660527625,0,0,0,0,7.715281234444998]],"volatility_latest":62.54736395036699,"volatility_previous":24.58748101863964,"volatility_mean":43.56742248450332,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52110","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Buesaco","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.174116911534856,1.2311455360782695,9.162188353449036],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52110|2023|Ordinary election|5453","CO-CON-52110|2019|Ordinary election|5454","CO-CON-52110|2015|Ordinary election|5455"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52110|2023|Ordinary election|5453","CO-CON-52110|2019|Ordinary election|5454","CO-CON-52110|2015|Ordinary election|5455"],"shares":[[0.31673960612691465,0.2449984370115661],[0.23815735833673052,0.22584590297594784],[0.3553871905558982,0.2637653070214078]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":72.0498367845535,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52203|2023|Ordinary election|5456","CO-CON-52203|2019|Ordinary election|5457","CO-CON-52203|2015|Ordinary election|5458"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52203|2023|Ordinary election|5456","CO-CON-52203|2019|Ordinary election|5457","CO-CON-52203|2015|Ordinary election|5458"],"shares":[[0.3263560247542774,0.3101565344011649],[0.3283115928715782,0.2425133198603711],[0.29292929292929293,0.2634343434343434]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.79566446763774,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52207|2023|Ordinary election|5459","CO-CON-52207|2019|Ordinary election|5460","CO-CON-52207|2015|Ordinary election|5461"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52207|2023|Ordinary election|5459","CO-CON-52207|2019|Ordinary election|5460","CO-CON-52207|2015|Ordinary election|5461"],"shares":[[0.19870985836488572,0.1825830879259571],[0.19266193567869547,0.15159293371583873],[0.23670947813363682,0.20582019183872544]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.45715425914733,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52210","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Contadero","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.444466442288654,30.930676277294893,15.93393247510323],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52210|2023|Ordinary election|5462","CO-CON-52210|2019|Ordinary election|5463","CO-CON-52210|2015|Ordinary election|5464"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52210|2023|Ordinary election|5462","CO-CON-52210|2019|Ordinary election|5463","CO-CON-52210|2015|Ordinary election|5464"],"shares":[[0.3425064343694318,0.28806176994654525],[0.5200339198643206,0.21072715709137163],[0.4039349040563517,0.2445955793053194]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":29.303620019640086,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52215|2023|Ordinary election|5465","CO-CON-52215|2019|Ordinary election|5466","CO-CON-52215|2015|Ordinary election|5467"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52215|2023|Ordinary election|5465","CO-CON-52215|2019|Ordinary election|5466","CO-CON-52215|2015|Ordinary election|5467"],"shares":[[0.2083497439936983,0.16003675987921753],[0.2161764705882353,0.18836898395721924],[0.2203806015960712,0.17480049109883364]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":79.05597624614148,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52224|2023|Ordinary election|5468","CO-CON-52224|2019|Ordinary election|5469","CO-CON-52224|2015|Ordinary election|5470"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52224|2023|Ordinary election|5468","CO-CON-52224|2019|Ordinary election|5469","CO-CON-52224|2015|Ordinary election|5470"],"shares":[[0.22713517148621384,0.2202420981842636],[0.23780931586608442,0.1874090247452693],[0.3556581986143187,0.2877598152424942]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.97711517270143,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[22.713517148621385,0,0,22.02420981842636,0,0,0,19.754539340954942,0,0,35.50773369199731],[23.780931586608443,8.86098981077147,5.312954876273653,18.74090247452693,0,0,11.299126637554584,0,0,17.194323144104803,14.810771470160116],[35.56581986143187,28.775981524249424,0,0,0,13.071593533487299,0,0,0,15.011547344110854,7.575057736720554]],"volatility_latest":43.73480890669157,"volatility_previous":44.77147352178868,"volatility_mean":44.253141214240124,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52227","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Cumbal","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[37.73427471116816,26.643728495464494,3.2234432234432226],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52227|2023|Ordinary election|5471","CO-CON-52227|2019|Ordinary election|5472","CO-CON-52227|2015|Ordinary election|5473"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52227|2023|Ordinary election|5471","CO-CON-52227|2019|Ordinary election|5472","CO-CON-52227|2015|Ordinary election|5473"],"shares":[[0.5659178433889602,0.1885750962772786],[0.4483578354707538,0.18192055051610886],[0.21698301698301697,0.18474858474858474]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[18.857509627727858,0,0,0,0,0,0,14.281129653401797,0,0,66.86136071887034],[0,14.119487019080388,17.2286518611198,0,0,0,18.192055051610886,5.6240225211135435,0,44.83578354707538,0],[4.7885447885447885,12.773892773892774,12.554112554112555,0,0,0,14.165834165834166,15.544455544455545,0,21.698301698301698,18.474858474858475]],"volatility_latest":94.37597747888645,"volatility_previous":33.18383628674526,"volatility_mean":63.77990688281586,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52233","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Cumbitara","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.3325257419745604,10.910671593131926,7.619534645870623],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52233|2023|Ordinary election|5474","CO-CON-52233|2019|Ordinary election|5475","CO-CON-52233|2015|Ordinary election|5476"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52233|2023|Ordinary election|5474","CO-CON-52233|2019|Ordinary election|5475","CO-CON-52233|2015|Ordinary election|5476"],"shares":[[0.26993741166969515,0.25661215424994954],[0.37426646381221473,0.26515974788089547],[0.3170544617744822,0.240859115315776]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.82664806144311,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[25.661215424994953,26.993741166969514,0,0,0,0,15.606703008277812,0,13.789622451039774,0,17.94871794871795],[19.88698109106716,26.515974788089547,7.607041947402738,8.563355792219083,0,0,37.426646381221474,0,0,0,0],[23.57453336742521,24.0859115315776,31.705446177448223,20.634108923548965,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":37.99034111256548,"volatility_previous":39.85670963773342,"volatility_mean":38.92352537514945,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52240","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Chachagui","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.7831044915057035,2.472952086553324,3.422053231939163],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52240|2023|Ordinary election|5477","CO-CON-52240|2019|Ordinary election|5478","CO-CON-52240|2015|Ordinary election|5479"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52240|2023|Ordinary election|5477","CO-CON-52240|2019|Ordinary election|5478","CO-CON-52240|2015|Ordinary election|5479"],"shares":[[0.20281591808238308,0.14498487316732603],[0.18263781555899022,0.157908294693457],[0.24658498802985496,0.2123644557104633]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":77.23023177968332,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52250|2023|Ordinary election|5480","CO-CON-52250|2019|Ordinary election|5481","CO-CON-52250|2015|Ordinary election|5482"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52250|2023|Ordinary election|5480","CO-CON-52250|2019|Ordinary election|5481","CO-CON-52250|2015|Ordinary election|5482"],"shares":[[0.2110603188761289,0.1850819489352213],[0.19226957383548068,0.16694196674375067],[0.16931929480901076,0.11802154750244859]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":85.84246058864011,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52254","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"El Peñol","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[23.58141447368421,21.699741156169114,5.463576158940398],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52254|2023|Ordinary election|5483","CO-CON-52254|2019|Ordinary election|5484","CO-CON-52254|2015|Ordinary election|5485"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52254|2023|Ordinary election|5483","CO-CON-52254|2019|Ordinary election|5484","CO-CON-52254|2015|Ordinary election|5485"],"shares":[[0.45333059210526316,0.21751644736842107],[0.4469370146678171,0.22993960310612596],[0.29635761589403975,0.24172185430463575]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52256|2023|Ordinary election|5486","CO-CON-52256|2019|Ordinary election|5487","CO-CON-52256|2015|Ordinary election|5488"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52256|2023|Ordinary election|5486","CO-CON-52256|2019|Ordinary election|5487","CO-CON-52256|2015|Ordinary election|5488"],"shares":[[0.31973355537052456,0.29017485428809325],[0.2708986897951652,0.2566894260933752],[0.2801794453507341,0.2663132137030995]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":88.3076885376204,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52258|2023|Ordinary election|5489","CO-CON-52258|2019|Ordinary election|5490","CO-CON-52258|2015|Ordinary election|5491"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52258|2023|Ordinary election|5489","CO-CON-52258|2019|Ordinary election|5490","CO-CON-52258|2015|Ordinary election|5491"],"shares":[[0.30848541086709974,0.25713991133106506],[0.38698590903883606,0.3205407263145835],[0.3661132396764581,0.2405278842060451]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":68.35030495703108,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52260|2023|Ordinary election|5492","CO-CON-52260|2019|Ordinary election|5493","CO-CON-52260|2015|Ordinary election|5494"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52260|2023|Ordinary election|5492","CO-CON-52260|2019|Ordinary election|5493","CO-CON-52260|2015|Ordinary election|5494"],"shares":[[0.18997118155619597,0.1461671469740634],[0.17189962419687232,0.13807734270820707],[0.18302180685358255,0.16082554517133957]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.6756343179483,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52287|2023|Ordinary election|5495","CO-CON-52287|2019|Ordinary election|5496","CO-CON-52287|2015|Ordinary election|5497"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52287|2023|Ordinary election|5495","CO-CON-52287|2019|Ordinary election|5496","CO-CON-52287|2015|Ordinary election|5497"],"shares":[[0.3196297890658631,0.3110202324580284],[0.35316917464660286,0.2512539899680803],[0.3322491868901676,0.21391043282461847]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":76.21291761259374,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52317|2023|Ordinary election|5498","CO-CON-52317|2019|Ordinary election|5499","CO-CON-52317|2015|Ordinary election|5500"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52317|2023|Ordinary election|5498","CO-CON-52317|2019|Ordinary election|5499","CO-CON-52317|2015|Ordinary election|5500"],"shares":[[0.3275652417921616,0.23617996445608455],[0.28275193798449616,0.22025193798449613],[0.3191553242594075,0.2231785428342674]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":58.410577727919865,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52320","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Guaitarilla","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.9821914419985163,0.480059084194977,7.095688204065777],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52320|2023|Ordinary election|5501","CO-CON-52320|2019|Ordinary election|5502","CO-CON-52320|2015|Ordinary election|5503"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52320|2023|Ordinary election|5501","CO-CON-52320|2019|Ordinary election|5502","CO-CON-52320|2015|Ordinary election|5503"],"shares":[[0.22631709126885977,0.1864951768488746],[0.2365829640571147,0.23178237321516496],[0.23889680176097372,0.16793991972031594]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":83.7854929456791,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[17.5612169181301,0,22.631709126885976,18.64951768488746,0,6.257729408854811,0,0,0,0,34.89982686124165],[23.65829640571147,4.037419990152634,23.178237321516495,18.58690300344658,0,9.182668636139832,0,0,0,15.657311669128507,5.699162973904481],[23.88968017609737,10.915447365013597,5.412404506020977,11.78298588631361,13.53101126505244,8.623591868444905,0,0,0,16.793991972031595,9.050886961025508]],"volatility_latest":29.263278568778052,"volatility_previous":25.128826700323415,"volatility_mean":27.196052634550732,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52323","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Gualmatan","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.787878787878789,13.14256773866802,8.773354995938263],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52323|2023|Ordinary election|5504","CO-CON-52323|2019|Ordinary election|5505","CO-CON-52323|2015|Ordinary election|5506"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52323|2023|Ordinary election|5504","CO-CON-52323|2019|Ordinary election|5505","CO-CON-52323|2015|Ordinary election|5506"],"shares":[[0.20096969696969696,0.17309090909090907],[0.36110407698151437,0.22967839959483413],[0.30463038180341184,0.21689683184402925]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":67.53583453039246,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[17.30909090909091,0,6.424242424242424,20.096969696969698,0,8.412121212121212,0,0,0,0,47.75757575757576],[22.967839959483413,4.912636110407698,36.110407698151434,0,0,0,16.966320587490504,0,0,0,19.042795644466953],[30.463038180341186,0,21.689683184402924,19.631735716219875,0,0,18.467370701326836,0,1.4351475764960737,0,8.313024641213106]],"volatility_latest":57.22387102219972,"volatility_previous":30.063131627410055,"volatility_mean":43.64350132480489,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52352","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Iles","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.310664055545665,5.393883225208523,7.45945945945946],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52352|2023|Ordinary election|5507","CO-CON-52352|2019|Ordinary election|5508","CO-CON-52352|2015|Ordinary election|5509"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52352|2023|Ordinary election|5507","CO-CON-52352|2019|Ordinary election|5508","CO-CON-52352|2015|Ordinary election|5509"],"shares":[[0.34947480861669933,0.19636816806124266],[0.3453197405004634,0.29138090824837815],[0.38854054054054055,0.31394594594594594]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":42.24745326582049,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52354","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Imues","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.2275811479919305,0.7801833430856249,4.349680170575692],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52354|2023|Ordinary election|5510","CO-CON-52354|2019|Ordinary election|5511","CO-CON-52354|2015|Ordinary election|5512"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52354|2023|Ordinary election|5510","CO-CON-52354|2019|Ordinary election|5511","CO-CON-52354|2015|Ordinary election|5512"],"shares":[[0.30827067669172936,0.27599486521181005],[0.27481958260191147,0.2670177491710552],[0.26567164179104474,0.22217484008528784]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.97214145610792,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52356|2023|Ordinary election|5513","CO-CON-52356|2019|Ordinary election|5514","CO-CON-52356|2015|Ordinary election|5515"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52356|2023|Ordinary election|5513","CO-CON-52356|2019|Ordinary election|5514","CO-CON-52356|2015|Ordinary election|5515"],"shares":[[0.20334773407027792,0.16196456369265214],[0.197704494018752,0.13352731975428386],[0.22240569283088596,0.15993395058088106]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":74.83488563454179,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52378|2023|Ordinary election|5516","CO-CON-52378|2019|Ordinary election|5517","CO-CON-52378|2015|Ordinary election|5518"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52378|2023|Ordinary election|5516","CO-CON-52378|2019|Ordinary election|5517","CO-CON-52378|2015|Ordinary election|5518"],"shares":[[0.3454478707782673,0.177863436123348],[0.32873847323890104,0.17273505086034796],[0.18691866218088266,0.15535325549178705]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":24.745885912286482,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52381","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"La Florida","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.817987152034263,5.061540589130136,1.132352941176471],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52381|2023|Ordinary election|5519","CO-CON-52381|2019|Ordinary election|5520","CO-CON-52381|2015|Ordinary election|5521"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52381|2023|Ordinary election|5519","CO-CON-52381|2019|Ordinary election|5520","CO-CON-52381|2015|Ordinary election|5521"],"shares":[[0.30821734475374735,0.2600374732334047],[0.23675840132761722,0.18614299543631585],[0.2948529411764706,0.28352941176470586]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":77.38755118961377,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52385","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"La Llanada","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[59.67223650385604,24.6684350132626,8.57035928143712],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52385|2023|Ordinary election|5522","CO-CON-52385|2019|Ordinary election|5523","CO-CON-52385|2015|Ordinary election|5524"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52385|2023|Ordinary election|5522","CO-CON-52385|2019|Ordinary election|5523","CO-CON-52385|2015|Ordinary election|5524"],"shares":[[0.721401028277635,0.12467866323907455],[0.4990053050397878,0.2523209549071618],[0.4109281437125748,0.3252245508982036]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[72.1401028277635,10.764781491002571,12.467866323907455,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,4.627249357326479],[49.90053050397878,25.23209549071618,0,24.867374005305038,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[32.52245508982036,41.09281437125748,0,26.384730538922156,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":39.33468800501865,"volatility_previous":17.378075414158417,"volatility_mean":28.356381709588533,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52390|2023|Ordinary election|5525","CO-CON-52390|2019|Ordinary election|5526","CO-CON-52390|2015|Ordinary election|5527"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52390|2023|Ordinary election|5525","CO-CON-52390|2019|Ordinary election|5526","CO-CON-52390|2015|Ordinary election|5527"],"shares":[[0.17958620689655175,0.1693793103448276],[0.2849740932642487,0.24017067967083208],[0.24201514652617714,0.22160026341784655]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":89.19667484005373,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52399","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"La Union","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.340376191703168,1.0918700883232493,2.0962962962962965],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52399|2023|Ordinary election|5528","CO-CON-52399|2019|Ordinary election|5529","CO-CON-52399|2015|Ordinary election|5530"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52399|2023|Ordinary election|5528","CO-CON-52399|2019|Ordinary election|5529","CO-CON-52399|2015|Ordinary election|5530"],"shares":[[0.2528987374388044,0.15949497552177275],[0.13846581820710757,0.12754711732387508],[0.17733333333333334,0.15637037037037038]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":69.29291814425747,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52405","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Leiva","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.21608272881617374,5.045446113893526,8.558178752107928],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52405|2023|Ordinary election|5531","CO-CON-52405|2019|Ordinary election|5532","CO-CON-52405|2015|Ordinary election|5533"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52405|2023|Ordinary election|5531","CO-CON-52405|2019|Ordinary election|5532","CO-CON-52405|2015|Ordinary election|5533"],"shares":[[0.14647322117610742,0.14431239388794567],[0.2455945093674643,0.19514004822852904],[0.2287099494097808,0.1431281618887015]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.50449326665722,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,4.367958018212687,0,9.075474610279365,3.272109893502084,0,0,0,83.28445747800586],[24.55945093674643,17.992951214987944,0,19.514004822852904,0,8.087553329623447,10.832869597477277,3.5985902429975885,4.2849193099610465,8.180300500834724,2.949360044518642],[22.87099494097808,10.223440134907252,0,14.312816188870151,0,0,9.738617200674536,12.225969645868465,7.778246205733558,9.127318718381114,13.722596964586847]],"volatility_latest":81.32301871414315,"volatility_previous":23.840961436257984,"volatility_mean":52.581990075200565,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52411","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Linares","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.936153726948703,26.539501351757284,2.552204176334108],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52411|2023|Ordinary election|5534","CO-CON-52411|2019|Ordinary election|5535","CO-CON-52411|2015|Ordinary election|5536"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52411|2023|Ordinary election|5534","CO-CON-52411|2019|Ordinary election|5535","CO-CON-52411|2015|Ordinary election|5536"],"shares":[[0.37269487060282036,0.33333333333333337],[0.4339140883148092,0.16851907479723638],[0.26017014694508894,0.23464810518174786]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":47.106184703350905,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52418","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Los Andes (Sotomayor)","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.39980009995002774,3.391915641476274,0.4549103559004557],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52418|2023|Ordinary election|5537","CO-CON-52418|2019|Ordinary election|5538","CO-CON-52418|2015|Ordinary election|5539"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52418|2023|Ordinary election|5537","CO-CON-52418|2019|Ordinary election|5538","CO-CON-52418|2015|Ordinary election|5539"],"shares":[[0.2333833083458271,0.2293853073463268],[0.22829525483304042,0.1943760984182777],[0.18999197217018998,0.18544286861118542]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":93.48527105998528,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52427","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Magui (Payan)","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.867167331612295,0.9384775808133448,6.972994760177347],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52427|2023|Ordinary election|5540","CO-CON-52427|2019|Ordinary election|5541","CO-CON-52427|2015|Ordinary election|5542"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52427|2023|Ordinary election|5540","CO-CON-52427|2019|Ordinary election|5541","CO-CON-52427|2015|Ordinary election|5542"],"shares":[[0.20934053039192677,0.1506688570758038],[0.2116788321167883,0.20229405630865485],[0.24425634824667472,0.17452640064490127]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":77.50428425385442,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52435","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Mallama (Piedrancha)","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.1320495185694632,1.1652794292508908,1.6032982134677063],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52435|2023|Ordinary election|5543","CO-CON-52435|2019|Ordinary election|5544","CO-CON-52435|2015|Ordinary election|5545"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52435|2023|Ordinary election|5543","CO-CON-52435|2019|Ordinary election|5544","CO-CON-52435|2015|Ordinary election|5545"],"shares":[[0.22168729940394313,0.2003668042182485],[0.17455410225921522,0.16290130796670632],[0.2299587723316537,0.21392579019697663]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":91.05428319368141,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52473|2023|Ordinary election|5546","CO-CON-52473|2019|Ordinary election|5547","CO-CON-52473|2015|Ordinary election|5548"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52473|2023|Ordinary election|5546","CO-CON-52473|2019|Ordinary election|5547","CO-CON-52473|2015|Ordinary election|5548"],"shares":[[0.2600819495363382,0.24692689238731938],[0.3337393422655298,0.2584652862362972],[0.21298573536645354,0.21126414166256763]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":84.67629476571517,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52480","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Nariño","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.351195166798004,4.725897920604915,8.20966214082728],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52480|2023|Ordinary election|5549","CO-CON-52480|2019|Ordinary election|5550","CO-CON-52480|2015|Ordinary election|5551"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52480|2023|Ordinary election|5549","CO-CON-52480|2019|Ordinary election|5550","CO-CON-52480|2015|Ordinary election|5551"],"shares":[[0.32098765432098764,0.22747570265300762],[0.24700693131695023,0.19974795211090107],[0.25165772023997474,0.16956109883170192]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":60.75273654828497,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52490","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Olaya Herrera","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.275466754012447,4.4639590193926075,0.4731008380643402],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52490|2023|Ordinary election|5552","CO-CON-52490|2019|Ordinary election|5553","CO-CON-52490|2015|Ordinary election|5554"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52490|2023|Ordinary election|5552","CO-CON-52490|2019|Ordinary election|5553","CO-CON-52490|2015|Ordinary election|5554"],"shares":[[0.1680314444808385,0.13527677694071405],[0.2116111720941578,0.16697158190023173],[0.1795079751284131,0.17477696674776969]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":83.24111078984157,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52506","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Ospina","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.638188808201622,10.433283035136885,32.634032634032636],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52506|2023|Ordinary election|5555","CO-CON-52506|2019|Ordinary election|5556","CO-CON-52506|2015|Ordinary election|5557"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52506|2023|Ordinary election|5555","CO-CON-52506|2019|Ordinary election|5556","CO-CON-52506|2015|Ordinary election|5557"],"shares":[[0.41755659974369924,0.25117471166168304],[0.4147445570165984,0.3104117266652296],[0.5242165242165242,0.1978761978761979]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":18.118492705673482,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52520","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Francisco Pizarro (Salahonda)","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.2218045112781937,5.992917461182241,3.4778465936160075],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52520|2023|Ordinary election|5558","CO-CON-52520|2019|Ordinary election|5559","CO-CON-52520|2015|Ordinary election|5560"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52520|2023|Ordinary election|5558","CO-CON-52520|2019|Ordinary election|5559","CO-CON-52520|2015|Ordinary election|5560"],"shares":[[0.2337875939849624,0.22156954887218044],[0.25061291201307545,0.19068373740125305],[0.2544068604097189,0.21962839447355884]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":85.60628697758406,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52540","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Policarpa","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.942456479690527,5.6268656716417915,1.7935856513147925],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52540|2023|Ordinary election|5561","CO-CON-52540|2019|Ordinary election|5562","CO-CON-52540|2015|Ordinary election|5563"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52540|2023|Ordinary election|5561","CO-CON-52540|2019|Ordinary election|5562","CO-CON-52540|2015|Ordinary election|5563"],"shares":[[0.4001450676982592,0.32072050290135395],[0.2897014925373134,0.23343283582089552],[0.3716370269037848,0.35370117039063687]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":66.83553922780834,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,40.01450676982592,0,0,0,0,27.913442940038685,0,0,0,32.072050290135394],[28.970149253731343,18.328358208955223,17.83582089552239,23.34328358208955,0,0,10.64179104477612,0,0,0,0.8805970149253731],[18.635050919592643,0,37.16370269037848,35.370117039063686,0,0,8.831129350965192,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":70.14925373134328,"volatility_previous":31.354715251830225,"volatility_mean":50.751984491586754,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52560|2023|Ordinary election|5564","CO-CON-52560|2019|Ordinary election|5565","CO-CON-52560|2015|Ordinary election|5566"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52560|2023|Ordinary election|5564","CO-CON-52560|2019|Ordinary election|5565","CO-CON-52560|2015|Ordinary election|5566"],"shares":[[0.290169133192389,0.19238900634249473],[0.40776196636481243,0.23635187580853817],[0.295124982737191,0.2936058555448142]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":44.878492001971736,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52565|2023|Ordinary election|5567","CO-CON-52565|2019|Ordinary election|5568","CO-CON-52565|2015|Ordinary election|5569"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52565|2023|Ordinary election|5567","CO-CON-52565|2019|Ordinary election|5568","CO-CON-52565|2015|Ordinary election|5569"],"shares":[[0.3156899810964083,0.31450850661625707],[0.6585365853658537,0.17886178861788618],[0.37597458850707477,0.2396765809991337]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":20.87943776836245,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52573","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Puerres","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.6766595289079262,1.5935572309801245,1.1504120879120876],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52573|2023|Ordinary election|5570","CO-CON-52573|2019|Ordinary election|5571","CO-CON-52573|2015|Ordinary election|5572"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52573|2023|Ordinary election|5570","CO-CON-52573|2019|Ordinary election|5571","CO-CON-52573|2015|Ordinary election|5572"],"shares":[[0.19842969307637404,0.17166309778729477],[0.33190541466758056,0.3159698423577793],[0.33756868131868134,0.32606456043956045]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":89.00447952284999,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[10.742326909350464,0,0,0,0,10.52819414703783,13.240542469664526,0,0,0,65.48893647394718],[33.190541466758056,0,31.59698423577793,11.274845784784098,0,21.110349554489375,2.8272789581905413,0,0,0,0],[33.75686813186813,0,32.606456043956044,13.736263736263735,0,0,0,0,0,19.900412087912088,0]],"volatility_latest":75.90219998542116,"volatility_previous":23.937628512679915,"volatility_mean":49.919914249050535,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52585","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Pupiales","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.4697025339698833,1.8134010336385913,6.089743589743591],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52585|2023|Ordinary election|5573","CO-CON-52585|2019|Ordinary election|5574","CO-CON-52585|2015|Ordinary election|5575"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52585|2023|Ordinary election|5573","CO-CON-52585|2019|Ordinary election|5574","CO-CON-52585|2015|Ordinary election|5575"],"shares":[[0.2654241645244216,0.24072713918472274],[0.24961465228035182,0.2314806419439659],[0.27243589743589747,0.21153846153846154]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.82591905276067,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[24.072713918472274,0,26.542416452442158,0,0,0,13.578773411678297,0,0.7069408740359897,0,35.09915534337128],[22.078157584549825,0,24.96146522803518,23.14806419439659,0,0,22.6221778946414,0,7.190135098377006,0,0],[27.243589743589745,5.788084464555053,21.153846153846153,15.978506787330316,0,8.550150829562595,0,0,7.861990950226244,1.1406485671191553,12.283182503770739]],"volatility_latest":38.67466290170071,"volatility_previous":33.5993543758967,"volatility_mean":36.137008638798704,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52612","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Ricaurte","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,5.764411027568922,3.5124274445602026],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2023-12-10 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52612|CO-CON-52612-2023-12-10-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6811","CO-CON-52612|2023|Ordinary election|5576","CO-CON-52612|2019|Ordinary election|5577"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52612|CO-CON-52612-2023-12-10-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6811","CO-CON-52612|2023|Ordinary election|5576","CO-CON-52612|2019|Ordinary election|5577","CO-CON-52612|2015|Ordinary election|5578"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.27167919799498746,0.21403508771929824],[0.24006548593540708,0.20494121148980504]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52621","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Roberto Payan (San Jose)","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.441007306078035,0.3189227498228213,9.983314794215797],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52621|2023|Ordinary election|5579","CO-CON-52621|2019|Ordinary election|5580","CO-CON-52621|2015|Ordinary election|5581"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52621|2023|Ordinary election|5579","CO-CON-52621|2019|Ordinary election|5580","CO-CON-52621|2015|Ordinary election|5581"],"shares":[[0.28633607958961604,0.1719260065288357],[0.22944720056697376,0.22625797306874557],[0.3281423804226919,0.22830923248053392]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":60.20693655992376,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52678","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Samaniego","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.49716406414116676,4.4292374793201965,3.1149862135777617],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52678|2023|Ordinary election|5582","CO-CON-52678|2019|Ordinary election|5583","CO-CON-52678|2015|Ordinary election|5584"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52678|2023|Ordinary election|5582","CO-CON-52678|2019|Ordinary election|5583","CO-CON-52678|2015|Ordinary election|5584"],"shares":[[0.20145648063861074,0.19648483999719907],[0.23236576928861483,0.18807339449541285],[0.191892093300544,0.16074223116476638]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":90.30715848180732,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52683|2023|Ordinary election|5585","CO-CON-52683|2019|Ordinary election|5586","CO-CON-52683|2015|Ordinary election|5587"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52683|2023|Ordinary election|5585","CO-CON-52683|2019|Ordinary election|5586","CO-CON-52683|2015|Ordinary election|5587"],"shares":[[0.24810905161665697,0.23613997173967252],[0.25676613462873005,0.1876301179736294],[0.2683878981456836,0.17380889007186584]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":81.30992313494869,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52685|2023|Ordinary election|5588","CO-CON-52685|2019|Ordinary election|5589","CO-CON-52685|2015|Ordinary election|5590"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52685|2023|Ordinary election|5588","CO-CON-52685|2019|Ordinary election|5589","CO-CON-52685|2015|Ordinary election|5590"],"shares":[[0.3359205776173285,0.30306859205776177],[0.28387787895018746,0.24424209962506693],[0.3712265953381735,0.2523882307986244]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":78.25711920638443,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52687|2023|Ordinary election|5591","CO-CON-52687|2019|Ordinary election|5592","CO-CON-52687|2015|Ordinary election|5593"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52687|2023|Ordinary election|5591","CO-CON-52687|2019|Ordinary election|5592","CO-CON-52687|2015|Ordinary election|5593"],"shares":[[0.22851992789905867,0.1478069297015822],[0.2545162585307106,0.23073063026896828],[0.25699185201497465,0.2061219995595684]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":69.6747636787254,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52693|2023|Ordinary election|5594","CO-CON-52693|2019|Ordinary election|5595","CO-CON-52693|2015|Ordinary election|5596"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52693|2023|Ordinary election|5594","CO-CON-52693|2019|Ordinary election|5595","CO-CON-52693|2015|Ordinary election|5596"],"shares":[[0.22637638208138608,0.21030434287016983],[0.25928074245939675,0.19767981438515084],[0.279236276849642,0.1957040572792363]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":81.76163804697796,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52694","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"San Pedro De Cartago","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.8356278681685438,4.579986976340351,4.23910454870207],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52694|2023|Ordinary election|5597","CO-CON-52694|2019|Ordinary election|5598","CO-CON-52694|2015|Ordinary election|5599"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52694|2023|Ordinary election|5597","CO-CON-52694|2019|Ordinary election|5598","CO-CON-52694|2015|Ordinary election|5599"],"shares":[[0.30621610346266165,0.2878598247809762],[0.24267419144779684,0.19687432168439334],[0.24053346034770182,0.19814241486068113]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":85.50358365663281,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52696","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Santa Barbara (Iscuande)","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.691367456073337,1.96211096075778,0.4629629629629619],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52696|2023|Ordinary election|5600","CO-CON-52696|2019|Ordinary election|5601","CO-CON-52696|2015|Ordinary election|5602"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52696|2023|Ordinary election|5600","CO-CON-52696|2019|Ordinary election|5601","CO-CON-52696|2015|Ordinary election|5602"],"shares":[[0.17513368983957217,0.11822001527883881],[0.1905728461885431,0.17095173658096527],[0.19074074074074074,0.18611111111111112]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":79.75124970916184,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[11.82200152788388,6.054239877769289,0,5.061115355233002,0,17.513368983957218,7.54392666157372,9.453781512605042,10.27501909854851,0,32.27654698242934],[6.111862877762743,17.095173658096527,0,7.262065854758683,0,15.741993685160127,12.336490753270185,19.057284618854307,14.230942715381145,0,8.164185836716284],[0,19.074074074074073,11.574074074074074,6.666666666666667,0,13.88888888888889,8.61111111111111,12.916666666666666,18.61111111111111,0,8.657407407407408]],"volatility_latest":31.593875094631283,"volatility_previous":18.42636445647271,"volatility_mean":25.010119775552,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52699","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Santacruz (Guachaves)","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.623586429725364,29.874776386404292,14.387718671902892],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52699|2023|Ordinary election|5603","CO-CON-52699|2019|Ordinary election|5604","CO-CON-52699|2015|Ordinary election|5605"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52699|2023|Ordinary election|5603","CO-CON-52699|2019|Ordinary election|5604","CO-CON-52699|2015|Ordinary election|5605"],"shares":[[0.47399030694668826,0.4077544426494346],[0.5977510861231792,0.29900332225913623],[0.435201713673688,0.29132452695465905]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":28.123216795266025,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,11.825525040387722,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,88.17447495961228],[0,29.900332225913623,10.324559161768464,0,0,0,0,0,0,59.775108612317915,0],[0,29.132452695465904,0,27.3473759371653,0,0,0,0,0,43.520171367368796,0]],"volatility_latest":88.17447495961228,"volatility_previous":27.3473759371653,"volatility_mean":57.76092544838879,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52720|2023|Ordinary election|5606","CO-CON-52720|2019|Ordinary election|5607","CO-CON-52720|2015|Ordinary election|5608"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52720|2023|Ordinary election|5606","CO-CON-52720|2019|Ordinary election|5607","CO-CON-52720|2015|Ordinary election|5608"],"shares":[[0.24068354951616225,0.18859378217006384],[0.22160356347438753,0.2129175946547884],[0.2638762511373976,0.23339399454049137]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":81.54606164338529,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52786","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Taminango","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.4807448159119794,7.013803164627991,3.367785390779236],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52786|2023|Ordinary election|5609","CO-CON-52786|2019|Ordinary election|5610","CO-CON-52786|2015|Ordinary election|5611"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52786|2023|Ordinary election|5609","CO-CON-52786|2019|Ordinary election|5610","CO-CON-52786|2015|Ordinary election|5611"],"shares":[[0.2213288192975032,0.1865213711383834],[0.2661878577039614,0.1960498260576815],[0.27697131575891304,0.24329346185112066]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":77.35316810993245,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52788","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Tangua","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.865150713907987,2.4740509028863933,6.161268090971744],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52788|2023|Ordinary election|5612","CO-CON-52788|2019|Ordinary election|5613","CO-CON-52788|2015|Ordinary election|5614"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52788|2023|Ordinary election|5612","CO-CON-52788|2019|Ordinary election|5613","CO-CON-52788|2015|Ordinary election|5614"],"shares":[[0.24801692226335273,0.19936541512427286],[0.16251955068960616,0.13777904166074223],[0.2005513439007581,0.13893866299104066]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":78.61283745846059,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-52835","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Tumaco","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.517084928399262,3.6143821636049616,2.4475818901394994],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52835|2023|Ordinary election|5615","CO-CON-52835|2019|Ordinary election|5616","CO-CON-52835|2015|Ordinary election|5617"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52835|2023|Ordinary election|5615","CO-CON-52835|2019|Ordinary election|5616","CO-CON-52835|2015|Ordinary election|5617"],"shares":[[0.14313058273075285,0.12795973344676026],[0.14762129062647197,0.11147746899042237],[0.17093777191455917,0.14646195301316417]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":88.80338102432502,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52838|2023|Ordinary election|5618","CO-CON-52838|2019|Ordinary election|5619","CO-CON-52838|2015|Ordinary election|5620"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52838|2023|Ordinary election|5618","CO-CON-52838|2019|Ordinary election|5619","CO-CON-52838|2015|Ordinary election|5620"],"shares":[[0.2623941405355917,0.2264133669031815],[0.24621719977015896,0.2296973759816127],[0.2592214111922141,0.2100729927007299]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":84.27037341742081,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-52885|2023|Ordinary election|5621","CO-CON-52885|2019|Ordinary election|5622","CO-CON-52885|2015|Ordinary election|5623"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-52885|2023|Ordinary election|5621","CO-CON-52885|2019|Ordinary election|5622","CO-CON-52885|2015|Ordinary election|5623"],"shares":[[0.27355712603062426,0.2052414605418139],[0.24476313245246537,0.2263938124395746],[0.27295409181636726,0.1941117764471058]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":72.8077865829602,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54001|2023|Ordinary election|5624","CO-CON-54001|2019|Ordinary election|5625","CO-CON-54001|2015|Ordinary election|5626"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54001|2023|Ordinary election|5624","CO-CON-54001|2019|Ordinary election|5625","CO-CON-54001|2015|Ordinary election|5626"],"shares":[[0.15032877386687296,0.13502232849256304],[0.16767712893452685,0.15532461458573338],[0.1561265139589424,0.140143605230186]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":92.75604379895019,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-54003","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Abrego","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.803755751772169,4.547294562137363,3.9079141405865947],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54003|2023|Ordinary election|5627","CO-CON-54003|2019|Ordinary election|5628","CO-CON-54003|2015|Ordinary election|5629"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54003|2023|Ordinary election|5627","CO-CON-54003|2019|Ordinary election|5628","CO-CON-54003|2015|Ordinary election|5629"],"shares":[[0.24269369481407785,0.16465613729635617],[0.1806773714748347,0.13520442585346107],[0.19981976077339014,0.16074061936752418]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":67.81383383118416,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-54051","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Arboledas","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[28.603435399551902,6.46586345381526,1.4712539610683564],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54051|2023|Ordinary election|5630","CO-CON-54051|2019|Ordinary election|5631","CO-CON-54051|2015|Ordinary election|5632"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54051|2023|Ordinary election|5630","CO-CON-54051|2019|Ordinary election|5631","CO-CON-54051|2015|Ordinary election|5632"],"shares":[[0.43614637789395067,0.15011202389843167],[0.38514056224899595,0.3204819277108434],[0.24671797193300138,0.2320054323223178]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":3.755271640087232,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54099|2023|Ordinary election|5633","CO-CON-54099|2019|Ordinary election|5634","CO-CON-54099|2015|Ordinary election|5635"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54099|2023|Ordinary election|5633","CO-CON-54099|2019|Ordinary election|5634","CO-CON-54099|2015|Ordinary election|5635"],"shares":[[0.20651975960662902,0.19595702057912948],[0.33731656184486375,0.2138364779874214],[0.3090421642700463,0.27126492810138925]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":76.42030390470094,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54109|2023|Ordinary election|5636","CO-CON-54109|2019|Ordinary election|5637","CO-CON-54109|2015|Ordinary election|5638"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54109|2023|Ordinary election|5636","CO-CON-54109|2019|Ordinary election|5637","CO-CON-54109|2015|Ordinary election|5638"],"shares":[[0.16950788034737857,0.16500482470247668],[0.3155322862129145,0.21919720767888307],[0.1957652303120357,0.1861069836552749]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":83.71590919358668,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-54125","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Cacota","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.842992623814542,4.452996151731721,2.661596958174904],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54125|2023|Ordinary election|5639","CO-CON-54125|2019|Ordinary election|5640","CO-CON-54125|2015|Ordinary election|5641"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54125|2023|Ordinary election|5639","CO-CON-54125|2019|Ordinary election|5640","CO-CON-54125|2015|Ordinary election|5641"],"shares":[[0.2718651211801897,0.26343519494204426],[0.34139637163276526,0.29686641011544807],[0.3168567807351077,0.2902408111533587]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":89.46072942187135,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[26.343519494204426,23.761854583772394,27.186512118018967,0,0,5.584826132771338,0,0,0,0,17.123287671232877],[29.686641011544804,34.139637163276525,4.068169323804288,0,18.141836173721824,13.963716327652556,0,0,0,0,0],[29.024081115335868,31.685678073510772,14.638783269961976,0,5.640050697084917,19.011406844106464,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":40.24163046544756,"volatility_previous":15.618304462611597,"volatility_mean":27.929967464029577,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-54128","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Cachira","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.440345368916798,13.665071770334933,6.2664329535495185],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54128|2023|Ordinary election|5642","CO-CON-54128|2019|Ordinary election|5643","CO-CON-54128|2015|Ordinary election|5644"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54128|2023|Ordinary election|5642","CO-CON-54128|2019|Ordinary election|5643","CO-CON-54128|2015|Ordinary election|5644"],"shares":[[0.37362637362637363,0.25922291993720564],[0.4780861244019139,0.34143540669856454],[0.38672217353198945,0.3240578439964943]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":42.04813976097245,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54172|2023|Ordinary election|5645","CO-CON-54172|2019|Ordinary election|5646","CO-CON-54172|2015|Ordinary election|5647"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54172|2023|Ordinary election|5645","CO-CON-54172|2019|Ordinary election|5646","CO-CON-54172|2015|Ordinary election|5647"],"shares":[[0.16229885057471263,0.13620689655172413],[0.19528030965164192,0.16581345985766013],[0.15044121833191004,0.1390549387987475]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.18307234734806,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-54174","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Chitaga","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[15.969070432005381,3.1818181818181834,0.36348086380158406],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54174|2023|Ordinary election|5648","CO-CON-54174|2019|Ordinary election|5649","CO-CON-54174|2015|Ordinary election|5650"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54174|2023|Ordinary election|5648","CO-CON-54174|2019|Ordinary election|5649","CO-CON-54174|2015|Ordinary election|5650"],"shares":[[0.35451336359051944,0.19482265927046563],[0.232996632996633,0.20117845117845118],[0.32627752833012613,0.3226427196921103]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":47.138320999355784,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-54206","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Convencion","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.797956867196367,5.619946091644206,10.86448598130841],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54206|2023|Ordinary election|5651","CO-CON-54206|2019|Ordinary election|5652","CO-CON-54206|2015|Ordinary election|5653"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54206|2023|Ordinary election|5651","CO-CON-54206|2019|Ordinary election|5652","CO-CON-54206|2015|Ordinary election|5653"],"shares":[[0.20964812712826333,0.13166855845629966],[0.23409703504043125,0.1778975741239892],[0.2334988317757009,0.12485397196261681]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":62.743967270290376,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-54223","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Cucutilla","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.010703993412928,1.9525183048591082,3.016409266409269],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54223|2023|Ordinary election|5654","CO-CON-54223|2019|Ordinary election|5655","CO-CON-54223|2015|Ordinary election|5656"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54223|2023|Ordinary election|5654","CO-CON-54223|2019|Ordinary election|5655","CO-CON-54223|2015|Ordinary election|5656"],"shares":[[0.3120625771922602,0.2519555372581309],[0.3212780119813623,0.3017528289327712],[0.2656853281853282,0.2355212355212355]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":77.53090592926793,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54239|2023|Ordinary election|5657","CO-CON-54239|2019|Ordinary election|5658","CO-CON-54239|2015|Ordinary election|5659"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54239|2023|Ordinary election|5657","CO-CON-54239|2019|Ordinary election|5658","CO-CON-54239|2015|Ordinary election|5659"],"shares":[[0.30886351277868407,0.24660141381185427],[0.32106274007682456,0.24263764404609475],[0.3016393442622951,0.2888888888888889]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":68.92008313667127,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-54245","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"El Carmen","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.737647877522619,3.1975819280941806,7.219560548488353],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54245|2023|Ordinary election|5660","CO-CON-54245|2019|Ordinary election|5661","CO-CON-54245|2015|Ordinary election|5662"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54245|2023|Ordinary election|5660","CO-CON-54245|2019|Ordinary election|5661","CO-CON-54245|2015|Ordinary election|5662"],"shares":[[0.20668058455114824,0.19930410577592206],[0.2562838052815781,0.2243079860006363],[0.27094002973732034,0.19874442425243682]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":89.38090320104669,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-54250","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"El Tarra","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.167698368036017,13.718791064388961,15.076923076923077],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54250|2023|Ordinary election|5663","CO-CON-54250|2019|Ordinary election|5664","CO-CON-54250|2015|Ordinary election|5665"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54250|2023|Ordinary election|5663","CO-CON-54250|2019|Ordinary election|5664","CO-CON-54250|2015|Ordinary election|5665"],"shares":[[0.19606077658975804,0.13438379290939786],[0.27752956636005255,0.14034165571616294],[0.343710407239819,0.19294117647058823]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":53.38025676084697,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-54261","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"El Zulia","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.949613875174073,4.416449464233999,7.481629926519705],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54261|2023|Ordinary election|5666","CO-CON-54261|2019|Ordinary election|5667","CO-CON-54261|2015|Ordinary election|5668"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54261|2023|Ordinary election|5666","CO-CON-54261|2019|Ordinary election|5667","CO-CON-54261|2015|Ordinary election|5668"],"shares":[[0.17362957336371693,0.1541334346119762],[0.1841876629018245,0.14002316825948452],[0.24315297261189045,0.1683366733466934]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":83.78566921486693,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-54313","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Gramalote","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.768283488313642,0.6332757628094399,15.456598902871892],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54313|2023|Ordinary election|5669","CO-CON-54313|2019|Ordinary election|5670","CO-CON-54313|2015|Ordinary election|5671"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54313|2023|Ordinary election|5669","CO-CON-54313|2019|Ordinary election|5670","CO-CON-54313|2015|Ordinary election|5671"],"shares":[[0.33877858758482027,0.16109575270168386],[0.2636729994242948,0.25734024179620035],[0.40658276863504356,0.2520167796063246]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":38.01693643940898,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[33.87785875848203,9.399346569489822,15.405880874591606,15.833123900477506,16.109575270168385,0,0,0,0,0,9.374214626790652],[25.734024179620036,8.981001727115716,22.99942429476108,26.367299942429476,9.067357512953368,6.850892343120322,0,0,0,0,0],[40.658276863504355,15.037108744756374,25.201677960632463,3.0332365279122295,3.452726686027751,12.616973217166828,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":24.978611805241766,"volatility_previous":28.948694241442865,"volatility_mean":26.963653023342317,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-54344","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Hacari","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.0445682451253475,0.9911212058641325,0.4693733865289822],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54344|2023|Ordinary election|5672","CO-CON-54344|2019|Ordinary election|5673","CO-CON-54344|2015|Ordinary election|5674"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54344|2023|Ordinary election|5672","CO-CON-54344|2019|Ordinary election|5673","CO-CON-54344|2015|Ordinary election|5674"],"shares":[[0.16243036211699163,0.15198467966573814],[0.22155688622754488,0.21164567416890356],[0.18164750058671672,0.1769537667214269]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":95.14492676256326,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-54347","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Herran","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.107870555333598,1.6079632465543625,6.834170854271356],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54347|2023|Ordinary election|5675","CO-CON-54347|2019|Ordinary election|5676","CO-CON-54347|2015|Ordinary election|5677"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54347|2023|Ordinary election|5675","CO-CON-54347|2019|Ordinary election|5676","CO-CON-54347|2015|Ordinary election|5677"],"shares":[[0.32680783060327606,0.22572912504994008],[0.29900459418070446,0.2829249617151608],[0.31055276381909547,0.2422110552763819]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":63.84735803703199,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-54377","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Labateca","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.8351881293057772,9.939593629873695,4.218600191754554],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54377|2023|Ordinary election|5678","CO-CON-54377|2019|Ordinary election|5679","CO-CON-54377|2015|Ordinary election|5680"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54377|2023|Ordinary election|5678","CO-CON-54377|2019|Ordinary election|5679","CO-CON-54377|2015|Ordinary election|5680"],"shares":[[0.194223635400106,0.16587175410704824],[0.2759472817133443,0.17655134541460737],[0.23521891978267817,0.19303291786513263]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":74.47574507139485,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-54385","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"La Esperanza","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.487113402061855,0.6712482020137429,5.812597200622086],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54385|2023|Ordinary election|5681","CO-CON-54385|2019|Ordinary election|5682","CO-CON-54385|2015|Ordinary election|5683"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54385|2023|Ordinary election|5681","CO-CON-54385|2019|Ordinary election|5682","CO-CON-54385|2015|Ordinary election|5683"],"shares":[[0.19213917525773194,0.1672680412371134],[0.21751638165254913,0.2108038996324117],[0.22900466562986005,0.17087869362363917]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":88.62548889048279,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54398|2023|Ordinary election|5684","CO-CON-54398|2019|Ordinary election|5685","CO-CON-54398|2015|Ordinary election|5686"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54398|2023|Ordinary election|5684","CO-CON-54398|2019|Ordinary election|5685","CO-CON-54398|2015|Ordinary election|5686"],"shares":[[0.236737400530504,0.17528735632183906],[0.25851938895417154,0.24418331374853114],[0.3318059299191375,0.27816711590296495]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":76.73263475574583,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54405|2023|Ordinary election|5687","CO-CON-54405|2019|Ordinary election|5688","CO-CON-54405|2015|Ordinary election|5689"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54405|2023|Ordinary election|5687","CO-CON-54405|2019|Ordinary election|5688","CO-CON-54405|2015|Ordinary election|5689"],"shares":[[0.16337264533469267,0.14020250700896683],[0.19779467680608367,0.14420785804816222],[0.2819525971868424,0.14110089710931445]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":77.96835068471763,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-54418","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Lourdes","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.339514978601999,1.5181004281821728,9.444687363358113],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54418|2023|Ordinary election|5690","CO-CON-54418|2019|Ordinary election|5691","CO-CON-54418|2015|Ordinary election|5692"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54418|2023|Ordinary election|5690","CO-CON-54418|2019|Ordinary election|5691","CO-CON-54418|2015|Ordinary election|5692"],"shares":[[0.2756776034236805,0.15228245363766046],[0.2783184118333982,0.2631374075515765],[0.3926541320507215,0.29820725841714035]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":55.98196074024169,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54480|2023|Ordinary election|5693","CO-CON-54480|2019|Ordinary election|5694","CO-CON-54480|2015|Ordinary election|5695"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54480|2023|Ordinary election|5693","CO-CON-54480|2019|Ordinary election|5694","CO-CON-54480|2015|Ordinary election|5695"],"shares":[[0.2784653465346535,0.27516501650165015],[0.30604372053150447,0.24989284183454777],[0.2590420332355816,0.25219941348973607]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":90.24513819826322,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54498|2023|Ordinary election|5696","CO-CON-54498|2019|Ordinary election|5697","CO-CON-54498|2015|Ordinary election|5698"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54498|2023|Ordinary election|5696","CO-CON-54498|2019|Ordinary election|5697","CO-CON-54498|2015|Ordinary election|5698"],"shares":[[0.1934435741224253,0.12459143216323372],[0.21842874261567893,0.11398658733996259],[0.20874718103737824,0.13835708459286983]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":60.15852929865966,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54518|2023|Ordinary election|5699","CO-CON-54518|2019|Ordinary election|5700","CO-CON-54518|2015|Ordinary election|5701"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54518|2023|Ordinary election|5699","CO-CON-54518|2019|Ordinary election|5700","CO-CON-54518|2015|Ordinary election|5701"],"shares":[[0.2088868718541134,0.11242676788513904],[0.15954288502989142,0.14746431331083004],[0.16960884511753227,0.1539998141782031]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":68.46973150448204,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54520|2023|Ordinary election|5702","CO-CON-54520|2019|Ordinary election|5703","CO-CON-54520|2015|Ordinary election|5704"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54520|2023|Ordinary election|5702","CO-CON-54520|2019|Ordinary election|5703","CO-CON-54520|2015|Ordinary election|5704"],"shares":[[0.20524412296564193,0.13381555153707053],[0.3255581472842386,0.2315894701766078],[0.20133234641006661,0.19541080680977052]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":64.18005002526915,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-54553","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Puerto Santander","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.18154311649016464,4.071499503475668,10.261693797650938],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54553|2023|Ordinary election|5705","CO-CON-54553|2019|Ordinary election|5706","CO-CON-54553|2015|Ordinary election|5707"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54553|2023|Ordinary election|5705","CO-CON-54553|2019|Ordinary election|5706","CO-CON-54553|2015|Ordinary election|5707"],"shares":[[0.19682299546142207,0.19500756429652044],[0.21336359767342883,0.17264860263867216],[0.262930146301257,0.16031320832474757]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":88.21727449649053,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54599|2023|Ordinary election|5708","CO-CON-54599|2019|Ordinary election|5709","CO-CON-54599|2015|Ordinary election|5710"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54599|2023|Ordinary election|5708","CO-CON-54599|2019|Ordinary election|5709","CO-CON-54599|2015|Ordinary election|5710"],"shares":[[0.20057601316601523,0.162518000411438],[0.2210731707317073,0.1789268292682927],[0.3146551724137931,0.17904509283819628]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.48014097533479,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54660|2023|Ordinary election|5711","CO-CON-54660|2019|Ordinary election|5712","CO-CON-54660|2015|Ordinary election|5713"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54660|2023|Ordinary election|5711","CO-CON-54660|2019|Ordinary election|5712","CO-CON-54660|2015|Ordinary election|5713"],"shares":[[0.18761324328776147,0.1853071981551639],[0.30342178770949724,0.2856145251396648],[0.32939687895402786,0.19696330662167863]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":90.0154184581284,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54670|2023|Ordinary election|5714","CO-CON-54670|2019|Ordinary election|5715","CO-CON-54670|2015|Ordinary election|5716"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54670|2023|Ordinary election|5714","CO-CON-54670|2019|Ordinary election|5715","CO-CON-54670|2015|Ordinary election|5716"],"shares":[[0.21452197196408881,0.18491100960781226],[0.2245326612056291,0.2194917034236505],[0.23583758813518113,0.2200340384147824]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":89.57039013980031,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-54673","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"San Cayetano","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.783342712436692,0.23707918444760523,5.8868501529052],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54673|2023|Ordinary election|5717","CO-CON-54673|2019|Ordinary election|5718","CO-CON-54673|2015|Ordinary election|5719"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54673|2023|Ordinary election|5717","CO-CON-54673|2019|Ordinary election|5718","CO-CON-54673|2015|Ordinary election|5719"],"shares":[[0.18908272369161508,0.14124929656724816],[0.19653864390706496,0.1941678520625889],[0.22069317023445464,0.16182466870540263]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":82.35092800956592,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-54680","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Santiago","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.182667799490229,40.98286744815148,19.861751152073733],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54680|2023|Ordinary election|5720","CO-CON-54680|2019|Ordinary election|5721","CO-CON-54680|2015|Ordinary election|5722"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54680|2023|Ordinary election|5720","CO-CON-54680|2019|Ordinary election|5721","CO-CON-54680|2015|Ordinary election|5722"],"shares":[[0.3135089209855565,0.26168224299065423],[0.5725879170423805,0.16275924256086566],[0.4649769585253456,0.2663594470046083]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":13.046819853265234,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54720|2023|Ordinary election|5723","CO-CON-54720|2019|Ordinary election|5724","CO-CON-54720|2015|Ordinary election|5725"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54720|2023|Ordinary election|5723","CO-CON-54720|2019|Ordinary election|5724","CO-CON-54720|2015|Ordinary election|5725"],"shares":[[0.28329540282203003,0.20846609012289485],[0.19816607233825778,0.19521141110545084],[0.3486691142726021,0.2533272143184947]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":72.34091200763302,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-54743","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Silos","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.943089430894307,1.2682308180088775,1.6320979258755521],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54743|2023|Ordinary election|5726","CO-CON-54743|2019|Ordinary election|5727","CO-CON-54743|2015|Ordinary election|5728"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54743|2023|Ordinary election|5726","CO-CON-54743|2019|Ordinary election|5727","CO-CON-54743|2015|Ordinary election|5728"],"shares":[[0.2532369768142126,0.1638060825052695],[0.2618896639188332,0.24920735573874445],[0.29411764705882354,0.277796667800068]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":70.45233651736599,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54800|2023|Ordinary election|5729","CO-CON-54800|2019|Ordinary election|5730","CO-CON-54800|2015|Ordinary election|5731"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54800|2023|Ordinary election|5729","CO-CON-54800|2019|Ordinary election|5730","CO-CON-54800|2015|Ordinary election|5731"],"shares":[[0.1830694275274056,0.17612667478684532],[0.23703170028818443,0.17247838616714697],[0.18092105263157893,0.155297783933518]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.95301362477326,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54810|2023|Ordinary election|5732","CO-CON-54810|2019|Ordinary election|5733","CO-CON-54810|2015|Ordinary election|5734"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54810|2023|Ordinary election|5732","CO-CON-54810|2019|Ordinary election|5733","CO-CON-54810|2015|Ordinary election|5734"],"shares":[[0.13667224244809603,0.13160484109022927],[0.20143756682903646,0.18456694784364977],[0.1752483506483658,0.1511336922726928]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":94.74345382604832,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54820|2023|Ordinary election|5735","CO-CON-54820|2019|Ordinary election|5736","CO-CON-54820|2015|Ordinary election|5737"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54820|2023|Ordinary election|5735","CO-CON-54820|2019|Ordinary election|5736","CO-CON-54820|2015|Ordinary election|5737"],"shares":[[0.23313253012048193,0.1953012048192771],[0.3317252761203504,0.29021200964834326],[0.34207589285714285,0.248046875]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":77.72216154598034,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-54871","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Villa Caro","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[24.15107415107415,2.9156542867060047,6.6167290886392],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54871|2023|Ordinary election|5738","CO-CON-54871|2019|Ordinary election|5739","CO-CON-54871|2015|Ordinary election|5740"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54871|2023|Ordinary election|5738","CO-CON-54871|2019|Ordinary election|5739","CO-CON-54871|2015|Ordinary election|5740"],"shares":[[0.48717948717948717,0.24566874566874566],[0.2464422075668171,0.21728566469975705],[0.2575946733250104,0.1914273824386184]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":19.864931572398948,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-54874|2023|Ordinary election|5741","CO-CON-54874|2019|Ordinary election|5742","CO-CON-54874|2015|Ordinary election|5743"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-54874|2023|Ordinary election|5741","CO-CON-54874|2019|Ordinary election|5742","CO-CON-54874|2015|Ordinary election|5743"],"shares":[[0.11863606866851514,0.10768292922738087],[0.11086517804830415,0.0982574919167589],[0.15478027315846618,0.13532201840105149]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":93.8499925100572,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-63001","country":"Colombia","region":"Quindio","name":"Armenia","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[null,6.471646014916429,1.6512001032000043],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-63001|2023|Ordinary election|5744","CO-CON-63001|2019|Ordinary election|5745","CO-CON-63001|2015|Ordinary election|5746"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-63001|2023|Ordinary election|5744","CO-CON-63001|2019|Ordinary election|5745","CO-CON-63001|2015|Ordinary election|5746"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.181807462143917,0.11709100199475271],[0.22395207649700477,0.20744007546500473]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[7.179144516395295,18.1807462143917,8.965578232629438,11.709100199475271,0,0,7.827684809417591,3.976731160395806,0,3.644599919423782,38.51641494787111],[8.99936306246019,22.395207649700478,10.220025638751602,20.744007546500473,0,6.036394127274633,7.867387991711749,3.9167627447976714,1.4544750909046933,4.013512750844547,14.352863397053962]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":24.223519966415285,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Mixed list-type source rows or prior outcome exclusion; vote comparison withheld":1,"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":2},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-63111","country":"Colombia","region":"Quindio","name":"Buenavista","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.670224119530417,0.06211180124223503,18.220084185207458],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-63111|2023|Ordinary election|5747","CO-CON-63111|2019|Ordinary election|5748","CO-CON-63111|2015|Ordinary election|5749"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-63111|2023|Ordinary election|5747","CO-CON-63111|2019|Ordinary election|5748","CO-CON-63111|2015|Ordinary election|5749"],"shares":[[0.3255069370330843,0.25880469583778015],[0.25652173913043474,0.25590062111801243],[0.3962717979555021,0.21407095610342755]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":70.78611784694166,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[25.880469583778016,0,8.0042689434365,32.55069370330843,0,0,18.14300960512273,0,0,0,15.421558164354323],[20.248447204968944,0,0,16.149068322981368,0,2.7950310559006213,25.652173913043477,2.2360248447204967,0,0,32.91925465838509],[21.407095610342754,3.006614552014432,12.567648827420324,39.62717979555021,1.4431749849669273,0,18.46061334936861,1.0222489476849068,0,0,2.465423932651834]],"volatility_latest":30.037916702572634,"volatility_previous":41.654198242344336,"volatility_mean":35.84605747245848,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-63130","country":"Colombia","region":"Quindio","name":"Calarca","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.9115758576408002,2.4985824985824987,2.899440578523672],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-63130|2023|Ordinary election|5750","CO-CON-63130|2019|Ordinary election|5751","CO-CON-63130|2015|Ordinary election|5752"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-63130|2023|Ordinary election|5750","CO-CON-63130|2019|Ordinary election|5751","CO-CON-63130|2015|Ordinary election|5752"],"shares":[[0.14243258117776555,0.12331682260135755],[0.17248157248157248,0.1474957474957475],[0.15428434984308909,0.12528994405785238]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":89.06767838994202,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-63190","country":"Colombia","region":"Quindio","name":"Circasia","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.694016834761509,0.3378085751407536,0.7636688601836052],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-63190|2023|Ordinary election|5753","CO-CON-63190|2019|Ordinary election|5754","CO-CON-63190|2015|Ordinary election|5755"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-63190|2023|Ordinary election|5753","CO-CON-63190|2019|Ordinary election|5754","CO-CON-63190|2015|Ordinary election|5755"],"shares":[[0.20383711230757565,0.15689694395996057],[0.14681680381117368,0.14343871805976613],[0.1460719798521407,0.13843529125030465]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":85.02940220291254,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-63212|2023|Ordinary election|5756","CO-CON-63212|2019|Ordinary election|5757","CO-CON-63212|2015|Ordinary election|5758"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-63212|2023|Ordinary election|5756","CO-CON-63212|2019|Ordinary election|5757","CO-CON-63212|2015|Ordinary election|5758"],"shares":[[0.1704781704781705,0.16839916839916838],[0.18129032258064515,0.16870967741935483],[0.22948181525587383,0.20759575152880594]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":96.39489941575243,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-63272|2023|Ordinary election|5759","CO-CON-63272|2019|Ordinary election|5760","CO-CON-63272|2015|Ordinary election|5761"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-63272|2023|Ordinary election|5759","CO-CON-63272|2019|Ordinary election|5760","CO-CON-63272|2015|Ordinary election|5761"],"shares":[[0.15205241857776064,0.1377914819811139],[0.1795018064270774,0.13823920897509032],[0.20840950639853748,0.14040219378427787]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.13196377249494,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-63302","country":"Colombia","region":"Quindio","name":"Genova","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.6650062266500605,3.2342887194320262,11.369076112972714],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-63302|2023|Ordinary election|5762","CO-CON-63302|2019|Ordinary election|5763","CO-CON-63302|2015|Ordinary election|5764"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-63302|2023|Ordinary election|5762","CO-CON-63302|2019|Ordinary election|5763","CO-CON-63302|2015|Ordinary election|5764"],"shares":[[0.224906600249066,0.1982565379825654],[0.1987904286089929,0.16644754141467263],[0.24940162757300144,0.1357108664432743]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":81.46901018441542,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-63401","country":"Colombia","region":"Quindio","name":"La Tebaida","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.3353115727002969,2.8837142239204088,3.077750151199517],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-63401|2023|Ordinary election|5765","CO-CON-63401|2019|Ordinary election|5766","CO-CON-63401|2015|Ordinary election|5767"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-63401|2023|Ordinary election|5765","CO-CON-63401|2019|Ordinary election|5766","CO-CON-63401|2015|Ordinary election|5767"],"shares":[[0.12773131912597788,0.11437820339897492],[0.14606012544156874,0.11722298320236466],[0.1665210671325852,0.13574356562059]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":90.12961887041874,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-63470","country":"Colombia","region":"Quindio","name":"Montenegro","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.9352776667998413,0.21016949152542352,8.819762122598354],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-63470|2023|Ordinary election|5768","CO-CON-63470|2019|Ordinary election|5769","CO-CON-63470|2015|Ordinary election|5770"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-63470|2023|Ordinary election|5768","CO-CON-63470|2019|Ordinary election|5769","CO-CON-63470|2015|Ordinary election|5770"],"shares":[[0.14629111732587563,0.1069383406578772],[0.15213559322033898,0.15003389830508473],[0.2087221713937176,0.12052455016773406]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":83.46903170101317,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-63548","country":"Colombia","region":"Quindio","name":"Pijao","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.401186387761474,1.1184210526315788,2.9368140017798865],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-63548|2023|Ordinary election|5771","CO-CON-63548|2019|Ordinary election|5772","CO-CON-63548|2015|Ordinary election|5773"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-63548|2023|Ordinary election|5771","CO-CON-63548|2019|Ordinary election|5772","CO-CON-63548|2015|Ordinary election|5773"],"shares":[[0.23477989384951609,0.18076802997190136],[0.2026315789473684,0.19144736842105264],[0.21625630376742805,0.1868881637496292]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.65040225687827,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-63594|2023|Ordinary election|5774","CO-CON-63594|2019|Ordinary election|5775","CO-CON-63594|2015|Ordinary election|5776"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-63594|2023|Ordinary election|5774","CO-CON-63594|2019|Ordinary election|5775","CO-CON-63594|2015|Ordinary election|5776"],"shares":[[0.14898487860714502,0.14410506657027533],[0.18801808590806332,0.15146948003014318],[0.3109218496971151,0.16709650332873507]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":85.86249818883206,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-63690|2023|Ordinary election|5777","CO-CON-63690|2019|Ordinary election|5778","CO-CON-63690|2015|Ordinary election|5779"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-63690|2023|Ordinary election|5777","CO-CON-63690|2019|Ordinary election|5778","CO-CON-63690|2015|Ordinary election|5779"],"shares":[[0.20562293274531424,0.18246968026460858],[0.2670598146588037,0.17410839651783205],[0.27215878194671017,0.1905927134312126]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.03300810886768,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-66001|2023|Ordinary election|5780","CO-CON-66001|2019|Ordinary election|5781","CO-CON-66001|2015|Ordinary election|5782"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-66001|2023|Ordinary election|5780","CO-CON-66001|2019|Ordinary election|5781","CO-CON-66001|2015|Ordinary election|5782"],"shares":[[0.2715340085252979,0.10336106053833659],[0.2616955030938399,0.12319056815174736],[0.20803401344931263,0.18678134539028254]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":27.709741959646216,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-66045","country":"Colombia","region":"Risaralda","name":"Apia","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[19.65811965811966,0.32500855285665864,0.3889734483341769],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-66045|2023|Ordinary election|5783","CO-CON-66045|2019|Ordinary election|5784","CO-CON-66045|2015|Ordinary election|5785"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-66045|2023|Ordinary election|5783","CO-CON-66045|2019|Ordinary election|5784","CO-CON-66045|2015|Ordinary election|5785"],"shares":[[0.5077251808021039,0.3111439842209073],[0.3364693807731783,0.3332192952446117],[0.3510908168442415,0.3472010823608997]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":40.34364147218895,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-66075","country":"Colombia","region":"Risaralda","name":"Balboa","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.793048973143762,12.176891933976954,29.156947684105297],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-66075|2023|Ordinary election|5786","CO-CON-66075|2019|Ordinary election|5787","CO-CON-66075|2015|Ordinary election|5788"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-66075|2023|Ordinary election|5786","CO-CON-66075|2019|Ordinary election|5787","CO-CON-66075|2015|Ordinary election|5788"],"shares":[[0.30963665086887837,0.24170616113744076],[0.4048582995951417,0.28308938025537217],[0.5428190603132289,0.2512495834721759]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":46.77704133755063,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,30.963665086887836,15.292259083728277,5.7503949447077405,3.0647709320695102,2.085308056872038,11.248025276461295,0,0,0,31.595576619273302],[5.04515727187792,40.48582995951417,19.370912488321395,0,6.789162254749299,0,28.308938025537216,0,0,0,0],[4.265244918360547,54.28190603132289,25.124958347217593,0,7.697434188603799,0,0,0,0,0,8.630456514495169]],"volatility_latest":39.43127962085308,"volatility_previous":29.088850379054588,"volatility_mean":34.26006499995383,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-66088","country":"Colombia","region":"Risaralda","name":"Belen De Umbria","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.94736842105263,3.3836689038031302,1.5745007680491554],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-66088|2023|Ordinary election|5789","CO-CON-66088|2019|Ordinary election|5790","CO-CON-66088|2015|Ordinary election|5791"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-66088|2023|Ordinary election|5789","CO-CON-66088|2019|Ordinary election|5790","CO-CON-66088|2015|Ordinary election|5791"],"shares":[[0.2502881290818286,0.21081444487130235],[0.26668530947054436,0.23284862043251306],[0.2522081413210445,0.236463133640553]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":82.29514099711284,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-66170","country":"Colombia","region":"Risaralda","name":"Dosquebradas","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.6238612346038934,2.13307127579629,2.5168823481933877],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-66170|2023|Ordinary election|5792","CO-CON-66170|2019|Ordinary election|5793","CO-CON-66170|2015|Ordinary election|5794"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-66170|2023|Ordinary election|5792","CO-CON-66170|2019|Ordinary election|5793","CO-CON-66170|2015|Ordinary election|5794"],"shares":[[0.16589169885576854,0.15965308650972962],[0.20165905543673046,0.18032834267876754],[0.19798757028706718,0.1728187468051333]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":93.67036820839719,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-66318","country":"Colombia","region":"Risaralda","name":"Guatica","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[24.575766597201547,18.25785071800536,15.041830288543622],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-66318|2023|Ordinary election|5795","CO-CON-66318|2019|Ordinary election|5796","CO-CON-66318|2015|Ordinary election|5797"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-66318|2023|Ordinary election|5795","CO-CON-66318|2019|Ordinary election|5796","CO-CON-66318|2015|Ordinary election|5797"],"shares":[[0.37049717177731467,0.12473950580529919],[0.3432223449581821,0.16064383777812846],[0.32030049513402764,0.16988219224859144]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-66383|2023|Ordinary election|5798","CO-CON-66383|2019|Ordinary election|5799","CO-CON-66383|2015|Ordinary election|5800"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-66383|2023|Ordinary election|5798","CO-CON-66383|2019|Ordinary election|5799","CO-CON-66383|2015|Ordinary election|5800"],"shares":[[0.2097902097902098,0.1737062937062937],[0.2471232876712329,0.22027397260273973],[0.26350606394707826,0.22960308710033075]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":83.45227907221383,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-66400|2023|Ordinary election|5801","CO-CON-66400|2019|Ordinary election|5802","CO-CON-66400|2015|Ordinary election|5803"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-66400|2023|Ordinary election|5801","CO-CON-66400|2019|Ordinary election|5802","CO-CON-66400|2015|Ordinary election|5803"],"shares":[[0.18396711202466598,0.1636048304213772],[0.18140253320976213,0.16546184738955824],[0.21195283077113047,0.12903624127924926]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.35438317138872,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-66440","country":"Colombia","region":"Risaralda","name":"Marsella","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.43242495504219,19.132686084142392,6.737359368938318],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-66440|2023|Ordinary election|5804","CO-CON-66440|2019|Ordinary election|5805","CO-CON-66440|2015|Ordinary election|5806"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-66440|2023|Ordinary election|5804","CO-CON-66440|2019|Ordinary election|5805","CO-CON-66440|2015|Ordinary election|5806"],"shares":[[0.32051459399640336,0.25619034444598143],[0.4080258899676375,0.2166990291262136],[0.2905728695202379,0.22319927583085478]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":48.63501632419068,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-66456","country":"Colombia","region":"Risaralda","name":"Mistrato","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.3691303731025677,15.80761654629022,3.08652109670005],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-66456|2023|Ordinary election|5807","CO-CON-66456|2019|Ordinary election|5808","CO-CON-66456|2015|Ordinary election|5809"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-66456|2023|Ordinary election|5807","CO-CON-66456|2019|Ordinary election|5808","CO-CON-66456|2015|Ordinary election|5809"],"shares":[[0.3206128528869343,0.2969215491559087],[0.3905121470781353,0.2324359816152331],[0.25841405352158925,0.22754884255458874]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":67.63792351290694,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-66572","country":"Colombia","region":"Risaralda","name":"Pueblo Rico","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.177468464549804,13.037495700034398,3.208773354995941],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-66572|2023|Ordinary election|5810","CO-CON-66572|2019|Ordinary election|5811","CO-CON-66572|2015|Ordinary election|5812"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-66572|2023|Ordinary election|5810","CO-CON-66572|2019|Ordinary election|5811","CO-CON-66572|2015|Ordinary election|5812"],"shares":[[0.2770769899956503,0.19530230535015225],[0.34520123839009287,0.21482628138974888],[0.27233956133225024,0.24025182778229082]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":54.30696437880103,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-66594|2023|Ordinary election|5813","CO-CON-66594|2019|Ordinary election|5814","CO-CON-66594|2015|Ordinary election|5815"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-66594|2023|Ordinary election|5813","CO-CON-66594|2019|Ordinary election|5814","CO-CON-66594|2015|Ordinary election|5815"],"shares":[[0.22031896042528057,0.21964391190616828],[0.25210934863314205,0.23455956800539993],[0.2715731686395608,0.24009264024704066]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":95.59099193047898,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-66682|2023|Ordinary election|5816","CO-CON-66682|2019|Ordinary election|5817","CO-CON-66682|2015|Ordinary election|5818"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-66682|2023|Ordinary election|5816","CO-CON-66682|2019|Ordinary election|5817","CO-CON-66682|2015|Ordinary election|5818"],"shares":[[0.1358888238375497,0.11068314177425816],[0.16464045525090534,0.14511122607346094],[0.1788320005097652,0.13996240481728106]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.56543121977167,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-66687","country":"Colombia","region":"Risaralda","name":"Santuario","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.372829612669335,1.2480499219968806,1.4635806671204925],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-66687|2023|Ordinary election|5819","CO-CON-66687|2019|Ordinary election|5820","CO-CON-66687|2015|Ordinary election|5821"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-66687|2023|Ordinary election|5819","CO-CON-66687|2019|Ordinary election|5820","CO-CON-66687|2015|Ordinary election|5821"],"shares":[[0.3005151688609044,0.23678687273421103],[0.25082336626798407,0.23834286704801524],[0.3005445881552076,0.2859087814840027]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":78.27764594543642,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68001","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Bucaramanga","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.2368719745537256,1.6505780934649614,28.7426399788679],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68001|2023|Ordinary election|5822","CO-CON-68001|2019|Ordinary election|5823","CO-CON-68001|2015|Ordinary election|5824"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68001|2023|Ordinary election|5822","CO-CON-68001|2019|Ordinary election|5823","CO-CON-68001|2015|Ordinary election|5824"],"shares":[[0.12935787636663812,0.11698915662110085],[0.15306960589514526,0.13656382496049566],[0.38902238468945183,0.10159598490077286]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":79.44219694670743,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68013","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Aguada","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.211784799316824,9.098639455782312,27.145214521452143],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68013|2023|Ordinary election|5825","CO-CON-68013|2019|Ordinary election|5826","CO-CON-68013|2015|Ordinary election|5827"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68013|2023|Ordinary election|5825","CO-CON-68013|2019|Ordinary election|5826","CO-CON-68013|2015|Ordinary election|5827"],"shares":[[0.340734415029889,0.21861656703672075],[0.423469387755102,0.3324829931972789],[0.5717821782178217,0.30033003300330036]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":36.14407915764999,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68020|2023|Ordinary election|5828","CO-CON-68020|2019|Ordinary election|5829","CO-CON-68020|2015|Ordinary election|5830"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68020|2023|Ordinary election|5828","CO-CON-68020|2019|Ordinary election|5829","CO-CON-68020|2015|Ordinary election|5830"],"shares":[[0.3761604158930561,0.2350538432974378],[0.30085261875761266,0.2919204222492895],[0.2160037002775208,0.18270120259019426]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":54.663073860699704,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68051|2023|Ordinary election|5831","CO-CON-68051|2019|Ordinary election|5832","CO-CON-68051|2015|Ordinary election|5833"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68051|2023|Ordinary election|5831","CO-CON-68051|2019|Ordinary election|5832","CO-CON-68051|2015|Ordinary election|5833"],"shares":[[0.22470674486803519,0.22360703812316715],[0.32730297359118316,0.18465377417342485],[0.3098768010022969,0.22092294842347043]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":73.82501543493451,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68077","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Barbosa","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.5745312204053263,3.2006591456458366,0.9841557897675699],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68077|2023|Ordinary election|5834","CO-CON-68077|2019|Ordinary election|5835","CO-CON-68077|2015|Ordinary election|5836"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68077|2023|Ordinary election|5834","CO-CON-68077|2019|Ordinary election|5835","CO-CON-68077|2015|Ordinary election|5836"],"shares":[[0.1859334553949113,0.18018814319085802],[0.14685004436557234,0.11484345290911396],[0.1949466043135339,0.18510504641585818]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":92.98333972543148,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68079","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Barichara","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.1424638678596,8.752688172043008,11.146642302421196],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68079|2023|Ordinary election|5837","CO-CON-68079|2019|Ordinary election|5838","CO-CON-68079|2015|Ordinary election|5839"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68079|2023|Ordinary election|5837","CO-CON-68079|2019|Ordinary election|5838","CO-CON-68079|2015|Ordinary election|5839"],"shares":[[0.30488644184445973,0.24346180316586374],[0.2954838709677419,0.20795698924731185],[0.3254910918227501,0.21402466879853815]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":62.87025498714609,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68081|2023|Ordinary election|5840","CO-CON-68081|2019|Ordinary election|5841","CO-CON-68081|2015|Ordinary election|5842"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68081|2023|Ordinary election|5840","CO-CON-68081|2019|Ordinary election|5841","CO-CON-68081|2015|Ordinary election|5842"],"shares":[[0.1281058621322609,0.09046005973934955],[0.11872023248930388,0.11278242696588901],[0.14209749451214898,0.1080255090454924]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.11198918028154,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68092","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Betulia","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.5376344086021483,0.614687803299903,3.3489377025567144],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68092|2023|Ordinary election|5843","CO-CON-68092|2019|Ordinary election|5844","CO-CON-68092|2015|Ordinary election|5845"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68092|2023|Ordinary election|5843","CO-CON-68092|2019|Ordinary election|5844","CO-CON-68092|2015|Ordinary election|5845"],"shares":[[0.18912080961416822,0.18374446552814674],[0.15658362989323843,0.1504367518602394],[0.253871083903493,0.22038170687792583]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":95.79059621796534,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68101","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Bolivar","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.187668040867539,5.295007564296522,11.082926829268295],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68101|2023|Ordinary election|5846","CO-CON-68101|2019|Ordinary election|5847","CO-CON-68101|2015|Ordinary election|5848"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68101|2023|Ordinary election|5846","CO-CON-68101|2019|Ordinary election|5847","CO-CON-68101|2015|Ordinary election|5848"],"shares":[[0.30507259365477685,0.23319591324610145],[0.3046520423600605,0.25170196671709527],[0.2985365853658537,0.18770731707317073]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":64.95302111631844,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68121","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Cabrera","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.936624416277521,24.852071005917153,16.243654822335028],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68121|2023|Ordinary election|5849","CO-CON-68121|2019|Ordinary election|5850","CO-CON-68121|2015|Ordinary election|5851"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68121|2023|Ordinary election|5849","CO-CON-68121|2019|Ordinary election|5850","CO-CON-68121|2015|Ordinary election|5851"],"shares":[[0.3455637091394263,0.29619746497665106],[0.6242603550295858,0.37573964497041423],[0.4713560551124003,0.30891950688905]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":39.790192831124195,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68132","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"California","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.78125,9.752650176678447,19.078947368421055],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68132|2023|Ordinary election|5852","CO-CON-68132|2019|Ordinary election|5853","CO-CON-68132|2015|Ordinary election|5854"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68132|2023|Ordinary election|5852","CO-CON-68132|2019|Ordinary election|5853","CO-CON-68132|2015|Ordinary election|5854"],"shares":[[0.42317708333333337,0.41536458333333337],[0.3943462897526502,0.2968197879858657],[0.4385964912280702,0.24780701754385967]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":73.48780105077181,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68147|2023|Ordinary election|5855","CO-CON-68147|2019|Ordinary election|5856","CO-CON-68147|2015|Ordinary election|5857"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68147|2023|Ordinary election|5855","CO-CON-68147|2019|Ordinary election|5856","CO-CON-68147|2015|Ordinary election|5857"],"shares":[[0.2283170591614015,0.1476163124641011],[0.3321375186846039,0.18325859491778776],[0.3058864751226349,0.1695865451997197]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":46.642940929641696,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68152|2023|Ordinary election|5858","CO-CON-68152|2019|Ordinary election|5859","CO-CON-68152|2015|Ordinary election|5860"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68152|2023|Ordinary election|5858","CO-CON-68152|2019|Ordinary election|5859","CO-CON-68152|2015|Ordinary election|5860"],"shares":[[0.2554483744194355,0.2315112540192926],[0.3416017009213324,0.1832034018426648],[0.2819365337672905,0.24938974776240846]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":67.43177971791289,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68160","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Cepita","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.23366967604886,5.460122699386506,21.79930795847751],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68160|2023|Ordinary election|5861","CO-CON-68160|2019|Ordinary election|5862","CO-CON-68160|2015|Ordinary election|5863"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68160|2023|Ordinary election|5861","CO-CON-68160|2019|Ordinary election|5862","CO-CON-68160|2015|Ordinary election|5863"],"shares":[[0.49123738714816784,0.28890069038767924],[0.32515337423312884,0.2705521472392638],[0.4865051903114187,0.2685121107266436]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":20.209152943534903,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68162","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Cerrito","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.262701363073111,7.837150127226463,2.652439024390244],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68162|2023|Ordinary election|5864","CO-CON-68162|2019|Ordinary election|5865","CO-CON-68162|2015|Ordinary election|5866"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68162|2023|Ordinary election|5864","CO-CON-68162|2019|Ordinary election|5865","CO-CON-68162|2015|Ordinary election|5866"],"shares":[[0.12812887236679057,0.08550185873605948],[0.22748091603053436,0.14910941475826972],[0.19207317073170732,0.1655487804878049]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":74.12995120774585,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0.8178438661710037,8.351920693928129,6.394052044609666,7.58364312267658,7.063197026022305,8.178438661710038,8.550185873605948,4.36183395291202,0,0,48.698884758364315],[8.676844783715012,22.748091603053435,8.396946564885496,13.078880407124682,9.694656488549619,14.910941475826972,0,10.178117048346056,0,4.223918575063613,8.091603053435115],[0,10.609756097560975,19.20731707317073,14.146341463414634,16.554878048780488,11.28048780487805,3.8109756097560976,0,0,8.810975609756097,15.579268292682928]],"volatility_latest":49.15746757853515,"volatility_previous":34.62375100850245,"volatility_mean":41.8906092935188,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68167","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Charala","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.099787039853968,1.7716218392655847,3.7480204117543536],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68167|2023|Ordinary election|5867","CO-CON-68167|2019|Ordinary election|5868","CO-CON-68167|2015|Ordinary election|5869"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68167|2023|Ordinary election|5867","CO-CON-68167|2019|Ordinary election|5868","CO-CON-68167|2015|Ordinary election|5869"],"shares":[[0.19120778825676907,0.13020991785822938],[0.20164277661459173,0.1839265582219359],[0.2329755410874538,0.19549533696991028]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":77.16919591566254,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68169","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Charta","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.850439882697948,0.9101251422070504,17.969762419006482],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68169|2023|Ordinary election|5870","CO-CON-68169|2019|Ordinary election|5871","CO-CON-68169|2015|Ordinary election|5872"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68169|2023|Ordinary election|5870","CO-CON-68169|2019|Ordinary election|5871","CO-CON-68169|2015|Ordinary election|5872"],"shares":[[0.4241202346041056,0.3156158357771261],[0.341296928327645,0.33219567690557456],[0.45874730021598276,0.2790496760259179]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":57.09861142909234,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68176","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Chima","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.685851318944845,0.10610079575596743,12.863795110593713],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68176|2023|Ordinary election|5873","CO-CON-68176|2019|Ordinary election|5874","CO-CON-68176|2015|Ordinary election|5875"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68176|2023|Ordinary election|5873","CO-CON-68176|2019|Ordinary election|5874","CO-CON-68176|2015|Ordinary election|5875"],"shares":[[0.3127098321342926,0.2858513189448441],[0.2594164456233422,0.2583554376657825],[0.3172293364377183,0.18859138533178116]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":85.35139729423466,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68179","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Chipata","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.309904153354637,2.4297885768381207,0.9767598518019582],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68179|2023|Ordinary election|5876","CO-CON-68179|2019|Ordinary election|5877","CO-CON-68179|2015|Ordinary election|5878"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68179|2023|Ordinary election|5876","CO-CON-68179|2019|Ordinary election|5877","CO-CON-68179|2015|Ordinary election|5878"],"shares":[[0.5376996805111821,0.4246006389776358],[0.5121489428841906,0.4878510571158094],[0.5048837992590098,0.4951162007409902]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":61.93722474877793,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68190|2023|Ordinary election|5879","CO-CON-68190|2019|Ordinary election|5880","CO-CON-68190|2015|Ordinary election|5881"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68190|2023|Ordinary election|5879","CO-CON-68190|2019|Ordinary election|5880","CO-CON-68190|2015|Ordinary election|5881"],"shares":[[0.11054608494654725,0.1014157757873447],[0.16159073747797634,0.1458595519758369],[0.18244274809160305,0.17277353689567432]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":94.4177688671219,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68207|2023|Ordinary election|5882","CO-CON-68207|2019|Ordinary election|5883","CO-CON-68207|2015|Ordinary election|5884"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68207|2023|Ordinary election|5882","CO-CON-68207|2019|Ordinary election|5883","CO-CON-68207|2015|Ordinary election|5884"],"shares":[[0.20333512641204948,0.13663259817105972],[0.1875893623105519,0.1815842150414641],[0.1972850678733032,0.18823529411764706]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":78.63598074955709,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68209|2023|Ordinary election|5885","CO-CON-68209|2019|Ordinary election|5886","CO-CON-68209|2015|Ordinary election|5887"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68209|2023|Ordinary election|5885","CO-CON-68209|2019|Ordinary election|5886","CO-CON-68209|2015|Ordinary election|5887"],"shares":[[0.41439859525899914,0.3037752414398595],[0.37189189189189187,0.31189189189189187],[0.31306818181818186,0.2727272727272727]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":55.79594839971267,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68211|2023|Ordinary election|5888","CO-CON-68211|2019|Ordinary election|5889","CO-CON-68211|2015|Ordinary election|5890"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68211|2023|Ordinary election|5888","CO-CON-68211|2019|Ordinary election|5889","CO-CON-68211|2015|Ordinary election|5890"],"shares":[[0.25,0.24221611721611722],[0.33022822543083374,0.19096413600372614],[0.22957821676454884,0.22851041110517886]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":76.72183146780054,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68217|2023|Ordinary election|5891","CO-CON-68217|2019|Ordinary election|5892","CO-CON-68217|2015|Ordinary election|5893"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68217|2023|Ordinary election|5891","CO-CON-68217|2019|Ordinary election|5892","CO-CON-68217|2015|Ordinary election|5893"],"shares":[[0.2411282984531392,0.22232332423415227],[0.32839048501699103,0.23602100710534443],[0.28937007874015747,0.2096456692913386]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":76.51686557511597,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68229","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Curiti","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.1385739480977577,2.9445727482678983,6.877444589308997],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68229|2023|Ordinary election|5894","CO-CON-68229|2019|Ordinary election|5895","CO-CON-68229|2015|Ordinary election|5896"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68229|2023|Ordinary election|5894","CO-CON-68229|2019|Ordinary election|5895","CO-CON-68229|2015|Ordinary election|5896"],"shares":[[0.15255731922398588,0.15117157974300832],[0.19875866050808313,0.16931293302540415],[0.2413624511082138,0.17258800521512385]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":91.72869673865038,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[12.270093222474175,9.800957420005039,6.021667926429831,15.11715797430083,15.255731922398589,0,13.063744016124968,0,0,0,28.470647518266563],[11.691685912240185,8.71824480369515,7.087182448036952,19.875866050808312,16.931293302540414,0,3.0889145496535795,0,1.6887990762124712,11.662817551963048,19.255196304849882],[17.258800521512384,14.308996088657105,10.29986962190352,24.13624511082138,4.563233376792699,11.636245110821381,1.4830508474576272,0.211864406779661,0,7.0078226857887875,9.09387222946545]],"volatility_latest":20.851400606431948,"volatility_previous":30.479041645714833,"volatility_mean":25.66522112607339,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68235","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"El Carmen","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.886556721639181,0.3129445234708399,21.51764393738392],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68235|2023|Ordinary election|5897","CO-CON-68235|2019|Ordinary election|5898","CO-CON-68235|2015|Ordinary election|5899"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68235|2023|Ordinary election|5897","CO-CON-68235|2019|Ordinary election|5898","CO-CON-68235|2015|Ordinary election|5899"],"shares":[[0.23800599700149924,0.21914042978510742],[0.1714082503556188,0.1682788051209104],[0.3908198461130273,0.1756434067391881]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":83.11209108118423,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68245","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"El Guacamayo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.2798742138364787,2.668890742285239,9.082652134423252],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68245|2023|Ordinary election|5900","CO-CON-68245|2019|Ordinary election|5901","CO-CON-68245|2015|Ordinary election|5902"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68245|2023|Ordinary election|5900","CO-CON-68245|2019|Ordinary election|5901","CO-CON-68245|2015|Ordinary election|5902"],"shares":[[0.2319182389937107,0.20911949685534592],[0.2268557130942452,0.20016680567139283],[0.26612170753860126,0.17529518619436874]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":84.61571517785109,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68250","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"El Peñon","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.19543973941368264,8.23488533703961,0.16447368421052388],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68250|2023|Ordinary election|5903","CO-CON-68250|2019|Ordinary election|5904","CO-CON-68250|2015|Ordinary election|5905"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68250|2023|Ordinary election|5903","CO-CON-68250|2019|Ordinary election|5904","CO-CON-68250|2015|Ordinary election|5905"],"shares":[[0.2244299674267101,0.22247557003257326],[0.27414871438498956,0.19179986101459345],[0.2269736842105263,0.22532894736842107]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.97911593409428,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[21.042345276872965,0,22.44299674267101,22.247557003257327,8.501628664495113,0,0,0,0,0,25.765472312703583],[14.732453092425295,0.20847810979847117,27.414871438498956,16.539263377345378,0,0,19.179986101459345,0,0,17.92911744266852,3.9958304378040306],[22.532894736842106,0,22.69736842105263,19.77796052631579,0,0,17.22861842105263,0,0,0,17.763157894736842]],"volatility_latest":42.28945634975428,"volatility_previous":24.806466250320035,"volatility_mean":33.54796130003716,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68255","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"El Playon","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.0914913083257094,2.774967480849835,2.8348145878026365],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68255|2023|Ordinary election|5906","CO-CON-68255|2019|Ordinary election|5907","CO-CON-68255|2015|Ordinary election|5908"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68255|2023|Ordinary election|5906","CO-CON-68255|2019|Ordinary election|5907","CO-CON-68255|2015|Ordinary election|5908"],"shares":[[0.15135276434453013,0.15043785126127304],[0.1787830611360023,0.15103338632750396],[0.20441311676371438,0.176064970885688]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":94.1456675598468,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68264","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Encino","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.266370699223085,14.333706606942886,10.221674876847288],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68264|2023|Ordinary election|5909","CO-CON-68264|2019|Ordinary election|5910","CO-CON-68264|2015|Ordinary election|5911"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68264|2023|Ordinary election|5909","CO-CON-68264|2019|Ordinary election|5910","CO-CON-68264|2015|Ordinary election|5911"],"shares":[[0.3374028856825749,0.23473917869034405],[0.3729003359462486,0.22956326987681971],[0.5511083743842364,0.44889162561576357]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":42.58949055349277,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68266","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Enciso","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.6634078212290504,4.016832440703901,8.899398108340502],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68266|2023|Ordinary election|5912","CO-CON-68266|2019|Ordinary election|5913","CO-CON-68266|2015|Ordinary election|5914"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68266|2023|Ordinary election|5912","CO-CON-68266|2019|Ordinary election|5913","CO-CON-68266|2015|Ordinary election|5914"],"shares":[[0.24685754189944134,0.24022346368715083],[0.2329762815608263,0.1928079571537873],[0.3473774720550301,0.2583834909716251]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.53482882108675,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68271","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Florian","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.5730180806675946,33.96034570411795,15.618101545253865],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68271|2023|Ordinary election|5915","CO-CON-68271|2019|Ordinary election|5916","CO-CON-68271|2015|Ordinary election|5917"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68271|2023|Ordinary election|5915","CO-CON-68271|2019|Ordinary election|5916","CO-CON-68271|2015|Ordinary election|5917"],"shares":[[0.42257765414928145,0.3968474733426055],[0.5330452465683783,0.1934417895271988],[0.46688741721854304,0.3107064017660044]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":33.53137642919337,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68276|2023|Ordinary election|5918","CO-CON-68276|2019|Ordinary election|5919","CO-CON-68276|2015|Ordinary election|5920"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68276|2023|Ordinary election|5918","CO-CON-68276|2019|Ordinary election|5919","CO-CON-68276|2015|Ordinary election|5920"],"shares":[[0.1612314747403744,0.09613469568783004],[0.13191082525748554,0.0960757898396419],[0.1481301700948567,0.14029286248811762]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":74.7038455912232,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68296|2023|Ordinary election|5921","CO-CON-68296|2019|Ordinary election|5922","CO-CON-68296|2015|Ordinary election|5923"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68296|2023|Ordinary election|5921","CO-CON-68296|2019|Ordinary election|5922","CO-CON-68296|2015|Ordinary election|5923"],"shares":[[0.1822684497275879,0.17582961862308075],[0.2566122678671919,0.16319639842431063],[0.2507552870090634,0.17341389728096676]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.18890076581083,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68298|2023|Ordinary election|5924","CO-CON-68298|2019|Ordinary election|5925","CO-CON-68298|2015|Ordinary election|5926"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68298|2023|Ordinary election|5924","CO-CON-68298|2019|Ordinary election|5925","CO-CON-68298|2015|Ordinary election|5926"],"shares":[[0.3726981585268214,0.27742193755004],[0.36931079323797145,0.25140875596012136],[0.29715061058344644,0.1831750339213026]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":48.03304928218088,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68307|2023|Ordinary election|5927","CO-CON-68307|2019|Ordinary election|5928","CO-CON-68307|2015|Ordinary election|5929"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68307|2023|Ordinary election|5927","CO-CON-68307|2019|Ordinary election|5928","CO-CON-68307|2015|Ordinary election|5929"],"shares":[[0.10737519187193918,0.0842482274687523],[0.11447195379953114,0.1132711990393962],[0.14245958123509145,0.1374403657566923]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":92.63083669110374,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68318","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Guaca","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.445800430725054,14.282202556538838,4.154809334092203],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68318|2023|Ordinary election|5930","CO-CON-68318|2019|Ordinary election|5931","CO-CON-68318|2015|Ordinary election|5932"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68318|2023|Ordinary election|5930","CO-CON-68318|2019|Ordinary election|5931","CO-CON-68318|2015|Ordinary election|5932"],"shares":[[0.310361330461833,0.27590332615458246],[0.33505408062930186,0.1922320550639135],[0.29595902105862265,0.25441092771770063]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":66.16189020597048,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68320|2023|Ordinary election|5933","CO-CON-68320|2019|Ordinary election|5934","CO-CON-68320|2015|Ordinary election|5935"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68320|2023|Ordinary election|5933","CO-CON-68320|2019|Ordinary election|5934","CO-CON-68320|2015|Ordinary election|5935"],"shares":[[0.22715572715572716,0.16956241956241958],[0.2771633051398829,0.23422251138581654],[0.3063802905874921,0.22741629816803538]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":72.33268903792494,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68322","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Guapota","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.180169286577993,1.7833553500660457,18.312905551550106],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68322|2023|Ordinary election|5936","CO-CON-68322|2019|Ordinary election|5937","CO-CON-68322|2015|Ordinary election|5938"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68322|2023|Ordinary election|5936","CO-CON-68322|2019|Ordinary election|5937","CO-CON-68322|2015|Ordinary election|5938"],"shares":[[0.32285368802902054,0.19105199516324065],[0.39299867899603697,0.3751651254953765],[0.47584715212689255,0.2927180966113915]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":48.6280063393919,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68324|2023|Ordinary election|5939","CO-CON-68324|2019|Ordinary election|5940","CO-CON-68324|2015|Ordinary election|5941"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68324|2023|Ordinary election|5939","CO-CON-68324|2019|Ordinary election|5940","CO-CON-68324|2015|Ordinary election|5941"],"shares":[[0.17093759421163704,0.14109134760325595],[0.20816702486951183,0.1998771875959472],[0.21631759924976557,0.21069084088777743]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":89.52131250835158,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68327","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Guepsa","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[21.11681643132221,35.940156409384564,12.808750882145375],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68327|2023|Ordinary election|5942","CO-CON-68327|2019|Ordinary election|5943","CO-CON-68327|2015|Ordinary election|5944"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68327|2023|Ordinary election|5942","CO-CON-68327|2019|Ordinary election|5943","CO-CON-68327|2015|Ordinary election|5944"],"shares":[[0.46919127086007706,0.25802310654685495],[0.5549132947976879,0.19551173070384223],[0.4505998588567396,0.32251235003528583]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68344","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Hato","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[21.15613825983314,1.5873015873015888,24.77678571428571],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68344|2023|Ordinary election|5945","CO-CON-68344|2019|Ordinary election|5946","CO-CON-68344|2015|Ordinary election|5947"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68344|2023|Ordinary election|5945","CO-CON-68344|2019|Ordinary election|5946","CO-CON-68344|2015|Ordinary election|5947"],"shares":[[0.3933253873659118,0.18176400476758045],[0.4195997239475501,0.40372670807453415],[0.4613095238095238,0.21354166666666669]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":21.76223998240535,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68368|2023|Ordinary election|5948","CO-CON-68368|2019|Ordinary election|5949","CO-CON-68368|2015|Ordinary election|5950"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68368|2023|Ordinary election|5948","CO-CON-68368|2019|Ordinary election|5949","CO-CON-68368|2015|Ordinary election|5950"],"shares":[[0.3338716188938232,0.22607993540573276],[0.2871452420701168,0.2328881469115192],[0.3219208537127612,0.2169853268119164]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":54.277154334740985,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68370|2023|Ordinary election|5951","CO-CON-68370|2019|Ordinary election|5952","CO-CON-68370|2015|Ordinary election|5953"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68370|2023|Ordinary election|5951","CO-CON-68370|2019|Ordinary election|5952","CO-CON-68370|2015|Ordinary election|5953"],"shares":[[0.38727858293075684,0.3671497584541063],[0.5031446540880503,0.49685534591194963],[0.5280423280423281,0.47195767195767196]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":90.21372362635692,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68377|2023|Ordinary election|5954","CO-CON-68377|2019|Ordinary election|5955","CO-CON-68377|2015|Ordinary election|5956"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68377|2023|Ordinary election|5954","CO-CON-68377|2019|Ordinary election|5955","CO-CON-68377|2015|Ordinary election|5956"],"shares":[[0.27234463976231743,0.23545432037633077],[0.46537997587454766,0.1278648974668275],[0.3701095461658842,0.352112676056338]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":37.40579891756867,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68385|2023|Ordinary election|5957","CO-CON-68385|2019|Ordinary election|5958","CO-CON-68385|2015|Ordinary election|5959"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68385|2023|Ordinary election|5957","CO-CON-68385|2019|Ordinary election|5958","CO-CON-68385|2015|Ordinary election|5959"],"shares":[[0.23852309420188125,0.2191492348729468],[0.19104965804341362,0.17320844484091583],[0.17719386895738587,0.15462354724608388]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":90.3831441353799,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68397","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"La Paz","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.0233196159122073,10.184528034066716,40.44244728655375],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68397|2023|Ordinary election|5960","CO-CON-68397|2019|Ordinary election|5961","CO-CON-68397|2015|Ordinary election|5962"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68397|2023|Ordinary election|5960","CO-CON-68397|2019|Ordinary election|5961","CO-CON-68397|2015|Ordinary election|5962"],"shares":[[0.43244170096021944,0.4122085048010974],[0.47622427253371186,0.3743789921930447],[0.5845143449706187,0.18008987210508123]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":58.432025457886425,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68406","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Lebrija","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.7860544689508497,3.2278388988513544,4.2824136263500066],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68406|2023|Ordinary election|5963","CO-CON-68406|2019|Ordinary election|5964","CO-CON-68406|2015|Ordinary election|5965"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68406|2023|Ordinary election|5963","CO-CON-68406|2019|Ordinary election|5964","CO-CON-68406|2015|Ordinary election|5965"],"shares":[[0.1297452258750636,0.1218846811855551],[0.1385159695633209,0.10623758057480735],[0.17194132502283593,0.12911718875933587]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":90.65887143169542,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,12.974522587506359,3.148841725620752,5.562491330281593,0,4.101354787996486,2.737319091875896,8.558746011929532,0.08322929671244278,0,62.83349516807695],[8.723888915814472,8.845054039645229,10.589831822808122,13.85159695633209,7.517084282460137,6.65438860078515,3.3393108127756506,6.329666068918723,0,8.665729656375708,25.483448844084716],[7.560045134597819,11.525441942936972,17.194132502283594,9.639460534092741,9.161248723872978,4.303906291977863,5.7063027241953685,11.68663693514588,0,8.19945193702649,15.023373273870291]],"volatility_latest":43.79182411157661,"volatility_previous":18.652815801826932,"volatility_mean":31.22231995670177,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68418","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Los Santos","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.4460365452872352,2.250518211430263,5.852417302798983],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68418|2023|Ordinary election|5966","CO-CON-68418|2019|Ordinary election|5967","CO-CON-68418|2015|Ordinary election|5968"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68418|2023|Ordinary election|5966","CO-CON-68418|2019|Ordinary election|5967","CO-CON-68418|2015|Ordinary election|5968"],"shares":[[0.20336532141448666,0.1889049559616143],[0.16923304708320994,0.14672786496890733],[0.20769720101781172,0.14917302798982188]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":89.3599043955934,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[20.336532141448664,18.89049559616143,4.495859077165768,0,0,16.484816616274482,6.480872880241883,12.330747995267517,0,0,20.98067569344025],[5.108084098312111,16.923304708320995,12.259401835949067,12.481492448919159,0,14.672786496890732,9.964465501924785,7.773171453953213,0,6.262955285756589,14.554338169973349],[5.693384223918575,20.76972010178117,5.502544529262087,9.430661577608143,6.949745547073792,13.963104325699746,10.73473282442748,14.917302798982188,0,4.087150127226463,7.951653944020356]],"volatility_latest":29.991583115141946,"volatility_previous":19.295859733672103,"volatility_mean":24.643721424407026,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68425","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Macaravita","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.0934937124111528,5.049875311720697,0.06958942240779464],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68425|2023|Ordinary election|5969","CO-CON-68425|2019|Ordinary election|5970","CO-CON-68425|2015|Ordinary election|5971"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68425|2023|Ordinary election|5969","CO-CON-68425|2019|Ordinary election|5970","CO-CON-68425|2015|Ordinary election|5971"],"shares":[[0.2290869327501367,0.21815199562602516],[0.31296758104738154,0.26246882793017456],[0.3082811412665275,0.30758524704244955]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":89.1099111839816,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68432|2023|Ordinary election|5972","CO-CON-68432|2019|Ordinary election|5973","CO-CON-68432|2015|Ordinary election|5974"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68432|2023|Ordinary election|5972","CO-CON-68432|2019|Ordinary election|5973","CO-CON-68432|2015|Ordinary election|5974"],"shares":[[0.1562224183583407,0.11876041973129352],[0.14800796812749004,0.14621513944223108],[0.20500213766566908,0.15198802907225312]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":85.8417706794262,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68444","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Matanza","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.47632920611799,5.052405267401237,2.738541366388006],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68444|2023|Ordinary election|5975","CO-CON-68444|2019|Ordinary election|5976","CO-CON-68444|2015|Ordinary election|5977"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68444|2023|Ordinary election|5975","CO-CON-68444|2019|Ordinary election|5976","CO-CON-68444|2015|Ordinary election|5977"],"shares":[[0.17310026705511045,0.14833697499393056],[0.23112066648750335,0.18059661381349099],[0.17382530988757566,0.1464398962236956]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":83.62313379735016,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68464|2023|Ordinary election|5978","CO-CON-68464|2019|Ordinary election|5979","CO-CON-68464|2015|Ordinary election|5980"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68464|2023|Ordinary election|5978","CO-CON-68464|2019|Ordinary election|5979","CO-CON-68464|2015|Ordinary election|5980"],"shares":[[0.1678094550703717,0.1445326596896427],[0.22935059839121053,0.20011771630370806],[0.25613305613305615,0.20103950103950105]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":85.87735131797818,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68468","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Molagavita","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.919540229885058,30.25122121423587,2.1590909090909136],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68468|2023|Ordinary election|5981","CO-CON-68468|2019|Ordinary election|5982","CO-CON-68468|2015|Ordinary election|5983"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68468|2023|Ordinary election|5981","CO-CON-68468|2019|Ordinary election|5982","CO-CON-68468|2015|Ordinary election|5983"],"shares":[[0.45146871008939976,0.34227330779054915],[0.642009769713887,0.3394975575715283],[0.4454545454545455,0.42386363636363633]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":20.785002034445576,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68498","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Ocamonte","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.952078705172962,2.302742973247547,6.431908012935679],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68498|2023|Ordinary election|5984","CO-CON-68498|2019|Ordinary election|5985","CO-CON-68498|2015|Ordinary election|5986"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68498|2023|Ordinary election|5984","CO-CON-68498|2019|Ordinary election|5985","CO-CON-68498|2015|Ordinary election|5986"],"shares":[[0.2611869247857823,0.25166613773405266],[0.21909922113105318,0.1960717913985777],[0.2917714696370823,0.2274523895077255]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":90.47369541814196,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68500","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Oiba","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.112977983777519,3.941044537007368,13.827691205445102],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68500|2023|Ordinary election|5987","CO-CON-68500|2019|Ordinary election|5988","CO-CON-68500|2015|Ordinary election|5989"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68500|2023|Ordinary election|5987","CO-CON-68500|2019|Ordinary election|5988","CO-CON-68500|2015|Ordinary election|5989"],"shares":[[0.2757821552723059,0.2246523754345307],[0.29461710990067286,0.25520666453059915],[0.29052480745119114,0.1522478953967401]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":71.83565364043383,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68502|2023|Ordinary election|5990","CO-CON-68502|2019|Ordinary election|5991","CO-CON-68502|2015|Ordinary election|5992"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68502|2023|Ordinary election|5990","CO-CON-68502|2019|Ordinary election|5991","CO-CON-68502|2015|Ordinary election|5992"],"shares":[[0.33119383825417203,0.30466409927257165],[0.24794036877206746,0.2130247155747352],[0.2435843500210349,0.22381152713504415]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":85.81508918162052,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68522","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Palmar","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[19.183359013867488,8.65384615384615,7.927927927927932],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68522|2023|Ordinary election|5993","CO-CON-68522|2019|Ordinary election|5994","CO-CON-68522|2015|Ordinary election|5995"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68522|2023|Ordinary election|5993","CO-CON-68522|2019|Ordinary election|5994","CO-CON-68522|2015|Ordinary election|5995"],"shares":[[0.40600924499229585,0.21417565485362097],[0.3391608391608391,0.25262237762237766],[0.4423423423423424,0.363063063063063]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":25.505189763664337,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68524|2023|Ordinary election|5996","CO-CON-68524|2019|Ordinary election|5997","CO-CON-68524|2015|Ordinary election|5998"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68524|2023|Ordinary election|5996","CO-CON-68524|2019|Ordinary election|5997","CO-CON-68524|2015|Ordinary election|5998"],"shares":[[0.26973684210526316,0.2100563909774436],[0.3152901785714286,0.24386160714285715],[0.2714714714714715,0.1903903903903904]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":67.32752489331438,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68533|2023|Ordinary election|5999","CO-CON-68533|2019|Ordinary election|6000","CO-CON-68533|2015|Ordinary election|6001"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68533|2023|Ordinary election|5999","CO-CON-68533|2019|Ordinary election|6000","CO-CON-68533|2015|Ordinary election|6001"],"shares":[[0.373574144486692,0.23162230671736375],[0.2765820751686476,0.24413748795374235],[0.33048644634236907,0.2499071667285555]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":48.518796606275046,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[17.902408111533585,23.162230671736374,0,37.3574144486692,0,0,16.34980988593156,0,0,0,5.228136882129277],[24.060391904914873,24.413748795374236,23.867651782846128,27.65820751686476,0,0,0,0,0,0,0],[24.99071667285555,20.46045302636465,0,20.98031934645377,0,0,33.04864463423691,0.5198663200891199,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":31.27715369986528,"volatility_previous":34.498835722266705,"volatility_mean":32.88799471106599,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68547","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Piedecuesta","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.602101201804009,0.24497529945185192,0.6758921623972061],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68547|2023|Ordinary election|6002","CO-CON-68547|2019|Ordinary election|6003","CO-CON-68547|2015|Ordinary election|6004"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68547|2023|Ordinary election|6002","CO-CON-68547|2019|Ordinary election|6003","CO-CON-68547|2015|Ordinary election|6004"],"shares":[[0.14879167861518808,0.08277066659714799],[0.11329769235974826,0.11084793936522974],[0.13523946111712923,0.12848053949315716]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":79.48828736421159,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,14.879167861518809,5.350765139862874,8.09588362574624,7.83127818764827,5.66490263041268,4.949294819990094,2.3553794415912823,0,0,50.87332829322975],[8.438790011504365,3.804561142315761,11.084793936522974,11.329769235974826,7.109697502876092,5.1336536509440345,10.774852811802125,10.41077349935711,6.1785206740204375,7.189551329769236,18.54503620491304],[9.377050180797339,8.63250080100087,12.848053949315716,7.431762354484842,13.523946111712922,5.468165936865875,4.839570968677052,6.720778725416902,7.434813786369253,7.045756221106754,16.677600964252477]],"volatility_latest":44.65572847176058,"volatility_previous":15.53451384787831,"volatility_mean":30.095121159819445,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68549","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Pinchote","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.030854674483183686,6.024558710667691,2.398989898989896],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68549|2023|Ordinary election|6005","CO-CON-68549|2019|Ordinary election|6006","CO-CON-68549|2015|Ordinary election|6007"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68549|2023|Ordinary election|6005","CO-CON-68549|2019|Ordinary election|6006","CO-CON-68549|2015|Ordinary election|6007"],"shares":[[0.21845109534094415,0.21814254859611232],[0.3430544896392939,0.28280890253261703],[0.27819865319865317,0.2542087542087542]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":89.67110296105396,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[14.224004936747917,21.845109534094416,14.47084233261339,21.78340018512805,21.814254859611232,0,0,0,0,0,5.862388151804999],[0,34.30544896392939,10.859554873369149,28.280890253261703,26.554105909439755,0,0,0,0,0,0],[2.1885521885521886,20.117845117845118,25.420875420875422,7.575757575757576,14.099326599326599,1.0942760942760943,0,0,1.6835016835016836,0,27.81986531986532]],"volatility_latest":23.697680547797155,"volatility_previous":47.34751583370156,"volatility_mean":35.522598190749356,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68572","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Puente Nacional","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.627462014631401,17.946149029430178,10.562310030395135],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68572|2023|Ordinary election|6008","CO-CON-68572|2019|Ordinary election|6009","CO-CON-68572|2015|Ordinary election|6010"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68572|2023|Ordinary election|6008","CO-CON-68572|2019|Ordinary election|6009","CO-CON-68572|2015|Ordinary election|6010"],"shares":[[0.2621271806415307,0.20585256049521664],[0.3515341264871634,0.17207263619286162],[0.2906534954407295,0.18503039513677813]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":50.91723539676296,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68573","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Puerto Parra","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.25462962962962976,2.062400846113171,14.179104477611936],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68573|2023|Ordinary election|6011","CO-CON-68573|2019|Ordinary election|6012","CO-CON-68573|2015|Ordinary election|6013"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68573|2023|Ordinary election|6011","CO-CON-68573|2019|Ordinary election|6012","CO-CON-68573|2015|Ordinary election|6013"],"shares":[[0.17685185185185187,0.17430555555555557],[0.24034902168164993,0.21972501322051824],[0.354315379623621,0.21252433484750163]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":89.05295760313538,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68575|2023|Ordinary election|6014","CO-CON-68575|2019|Ordinary election|6015","CO-CON-68575|2015|Ordinary election|6016"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68575|2023|Ordinary election|6014","CO-CON-68575|2019|Ordinary election|6015","CO-CON-68575|2015|Ordinary election|6016"],"shares":[[0.16644604316546763,0.16080575539568348],[0.14729961706061007,0.12537963818830053],[0.1837953091684435,0.14612651030561477]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":93.1364768950769,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68615","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Rionegro","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.8531566096965477,7.706752798016977,3.735414456735871],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68615|2023|Ordinary election|6017","CO-CON-68615|2019|Ordinary election|6018","CO-CON-68615|2015|Ordinary election|6019"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68615|2023|Ordinary election|6017","CO-CON-68615|2019|Ordinary election|6018","CO-CON-68615|2015|Ordinary election|6019"],"shares":[[0.15758632717125917,0.1290547610742937],[0.22857357470141967,0.1515060467212499],[0.1834368843764207,0.14608273980906197]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":78.01269374551696,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68655|2023|Ordinary election|6020","CO-CON-68655|2019|Ordinary election|6021","CO-CON-68655|2015|Ordinary election|6022"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68655|2023|Ordinary election|6020","CO-CON-68655|2019|Ordinary election|6021","CO-CON-68655|2015|Ordinary election|6022"],"shares":[[0.1889968068121341,0.13823842469398617],[0.14990859232175502,0.1150975015234613],[0.1657859973579921,0.1207892998678996]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":77.30098687030693,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68669","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"San Andres","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.611927761444772,4.206008583690984,7.2406639004149405],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68669|2023|Ordinary election|6023","CO-CON-68669|2019|Ordinary election|6024","CO-CON-68669|2015|Ordinary election|6025"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68669|2023|Ordinary election|6023","CO-CON-68669|2019|Ordinary election|6024","CO-CON-68669|2015|Ordinary election|6025"],"shares":[[0.20894582108357834,0.17282654346913062],[0.2564377682403433,0.2143776824034335],[0.25539419087136933,0.1829875518672199]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":79.23487188992173,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68673|2023|Ordinary election|6026","CO-CON-68673|2019|Ordinary election|6027","CO-CON-68673|2015|Ordinary election|6028"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68673|2023|Ordinary election|6026","CO-CON-68673|2019|Ordinary election|6027","CO-CON-68673|2015|Ordinary election|6028"],"shares":[[0.6689623507805327,0.1965105601469238],[0.6106577052328372,0.38934229476716276],[0.5039929015084295,0.3988464951197871]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68679|2023|Ordinary election|6029","CO-CON-68679|2019|Ordinary election|6030","CO-CON-68679|2015|Ordinary election|6031"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68679|2023|Ordinary election|6029","CO-CON-68679|2019|Ordinary election|6030","CO-CON-68679|2015|Ordinary election|6031"],"shares":[[0.1579138256201944,0.13241694472653415],[0.2710522365655959,0.15149354548183727],[0.22569964525029562,0.1757981868348443]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":71.92205914856558,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68682|2023|Ordinary election|6032","CO-CON-68682|2019|Ordinary election|6033","CO-CON-68682|2015|Ordinary election|6034"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68682|2023|Ordinary election|6032","CO-CON-68682|2019|Ordinary election|6033","CO-CON-68682|2015|Ordinary election|6034"],"shares":[[0.27277936962750715,0.24297994269340975],[0.24315068493150688,0.2288812785388128],[0.28883495145631066,0.2342233009708738]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.18917843659483,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68684|2023|Ordinary election|6035","CO-CON-68684|2019|Ordinary election|6036","CO-CON-68684|2015|Ordinary election|6037"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68684|2023|Ordinary election|6035","CO-CON-68684|2019|Ordinary election|6036","CO-CON-68684|2015|Ordinary election|6037"],"shares":[[0.17678173719376392,0.15729398663697103],[0.20711874808223382,0.13685179502915004],[0.1885328836424958,0.13591905564924114]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.98294047533685,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68686|2023|Ordinary election|6038","CO-CON-68686|2019|Ordinary election|6039","CO-CON-68686|2015|Ordinary election|6040"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68686|2023|Ordinary election|6038","CO-CON-68686|2019|Ordinary election|6039","CO-CON-68686|2015|Ordinary election|6040"],"shares":[[0.22370714700755376,0.16618245206275423],[0.1848145968216598,0.1683343143025309],[0.15331010452961671,0.14982578397212543]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.09633311081625,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68689","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"San Vicente De Chucuri","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.8549563724789007,0.48881647163383235,9.831908419069702],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68689|2023|Ordinary election|6041","CO-CON-68689|2019|Ordinary election|6042","CO-CON-68689|2015|Ordinary election|6043"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68689|2023|Ordinary election|6041","CO-CON-68689|2019|Ordinary election|6042","CO-CON-68689|2015|Ordinary election|6043"],"shares":[[0.18616793019596625,0.14761836647117724],[0.17271515331062065,0.16782698859428233],[0.2618461092595276,0.1635270250688306]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":82.7859519655777,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[12.980975539979974,14.761836647117724,18.616793019596624,7.860105850379059,9.60520669432127,0,4.6702903733371475,5.63581747961665,0.46488342154198253,0,25.40409097410957],[9.109761516812323,15.086653829062362,17.271515331062066,9.087542586283513,16.782698859428233,3.377277440379203,3.525403643904607,2.5848022515182936,1.4812620352540364,7.087838838690565,14.6052436676048],[5.4122590928850896,5.078974061730184,26.18461092595276,11.128821909868135,11.918562527169975,8.00608607448196,6.687436603390813,0,0,16.35270250688306,9.230546297638025]],"volatility_latest":20.21124097573788,"volatility_previous":28.010080180256775,"volatility_mean":24.11066057799733,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68705","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Santa Barbara","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.4167468719922987,6.917211328976034,11.238825031928478],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68705|2023|Ordinary election|6044","CO-CON-68705|2019|Ordinary election|6045","CO-CON-68705|2015|Ordinary election|6046"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68705|2023|Ordinary election|6044","CO-CON-68705|2019|Ordinary election|6045","CO-CON-68705|2015|Ordinary election|6046"],"shares":[[0.26179018286814243,0.22762271414821947],[0.3017429193899782,0.23257080610021788],[0.3793103448275862,0.2669220945083014]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":73.75452987459481,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68720|2023|Ordinary election|6047","CO-CON-68720|2019|Ordinary election|6048","CO-CON-68720|2015|Ordinary election|6049"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68720|2023|Ordinary election|6047","CO-CON-68720|2019|Ordinary election|6048","CO-CON-68720|2015|Ordinary election|6049"],"shares":[[0.21898110106820048,0.18447000821692686],[0.25681089743589747,0.19751602564102566],[0.19669117647058823,0.18933823529411764]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.38479431656363,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68745","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Simacota","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.653966831017481,14.669987546699875,1.4549233567160265],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68745|2023|Ordinary election|6050","CO-CON-68745|2019|Ordinary election|6051","CO-CON-68745|2015|Ordinary election|6052"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68745|2023|Ordinary election|6050","CO-CON-68745|2019|Ordinary election|6051","CO-CON-68745|2015|Ordinary election|6052"],"shares":[[0.2974002689376961,0.1808606006275213],[0.3150684931506849,0.16836861768368616],[0.3203429462197973,0.30579371265263705]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":42.30565650853973,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68755","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Socorro","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.39254170755642726,3.0275047820064653,6.526806526806526],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68755|2023|Ordinary election|6053","CO-CON-68755|2019|Ordinary election|6054","CO-CON-68755|2015|Ordinary election|6055"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68755|2023|Ordinary election|6053","CO-CON-68755|2019|Ordinary election|6054","CO-CON-68755|2015|Ordinary election|6055"],"shares":[[0.12395731108930325,0.12003189401373897],[0.17756084690983445,0.1472857990897698],[0.20135746606334842,0.13608940079528314]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":91.01771444091776,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68770|2023|Ordinary election|6056","CO-CON-68770|2019|Ordinary election|6057","CO-CON-68770|2015|Ordinary election|6058"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68770|2023|Ordinary election|6056","CO-CON-68770|2019|Ordinary election|6057","CO-CON-68770|2015|Ordinary election|6058"],"shares":[[0.16366417403127123,0.1583956492182189],[0.2807257120561842,0.1461178306671869],[0.3600309537628168,0.224414780421745]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":71.44745168068111,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68773","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Sucre","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.8961518186610427,2.802322645796515,5.0941894401698065],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68773|2023|Ordinary election|6059","CO-CON-68773|2019|Ordinary election|6060","CO-CON-68773|2015|Ordinary election|6061"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68773|2023|Ordinary election|6059","CO-CON-68773|2019|Ordinary election|6060","CO-CON-68773|2015|Ordinary election|6061"],"shares":[[0.2846599894570374,0.275698471270427],[0.41757132037364303,0.38954809391567785],[0.3557972937118599,0.30485539931016187]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":90.5609658552372,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68780","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Surata","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.7061281337047376,1.6851780926847972,6.000876040297854],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68780|2023|Ordinary election|6062","CO-CON-68780|2019|Ordinary election|6063","CO-CON-68780|2015|Ordinary election|6064"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68780|2023|Ordinary election|6062","CO-CON-68780|2019|Ordinary election|6063","CO-CON-68780|2015|Ordinary election|6064"],"shares":[[0.20264623955431754,0.18558495821727017],[0.2179241669858292,0.20107238605898123],[0.2203241349102059,0.16031537450722733]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":89.35341043970966,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68820","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Tona","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.098553345388789,11.021288062516842,9.383145091225025],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68820|2023|Ordinary election|6065","CO-CON-68820|2019|Ordinary election|6066","CO-CON-68820|2015|Ordinary election|6067"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68820|2023|Ordinary election|6065","CO-CON-68820|2019|Ordinary election|6066","CO-CON-68820|2015|Ordinary election|6067"],"shares":[[0.265370705244123,0.1543851717902351],[0.34842360549717055,0.23821072487200215],[0.29452649869678543,0.20069504778453517]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":45.48083532444587,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68855|2023|Ordinary election|6068","CO-CON-68855|2019|Ordinary election|6069","CO-CON-68855|2015|Ordinary election|6070"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68855|2023|Ordinary election|6068","CO-CON-68855|2019|Ordinary election|6069","CO-CON-68855|2015|Ordinary election|6070"],"shares":[[0.20388111029231148,0.17219356423483173],[0.2832512315270936,0.19731800766283525],[0.3880297823596793,0.1752577319587629]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":66.9651500830715,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68861","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Velez","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.763940520446095,2.8009009891293672,4.135454079014881],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68861|2023|Ordinary election|6071","CO-CON-68861|2019|Ordinary election|6072","CO-CON-68861|2015|Ordinary election|6073"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68861|2023|Ordinary election|6071","CO-CON-68861|2019|Ordinary election|6072","CO-CON-68861|2015|Ordinary election|6073"],"shares":[[0.21486988847583643,0.17723048327137547],[0.1928312604054451,0.16482225051415142],[0.21703437660338637,0.17567983581323754]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":82.43909991546022,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68867","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Vetas","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.4881516587677694,2.1108179419525044,0.34393809114359186],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68867|2023|Ordinary election|6074","CO-CON-68867|2019|Ordinary election|6075","CO-CON-68867|2015|Ordinary election|6076"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68867|2023|Ordinary election|6074","CO-CON-68867|2019|Ordinary election|6075","CO-CON-68867|2015|Ordinary election|6076"],"shares":[[0.4473933649289099,0.37251184834123224],[0.3034300791556728,0.28232189973614774],[0.23559759243336198,0.23215821152192606]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":74.19734906519614,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68872|2023|Ordinary election|6077","CO-CON-68872|2019|Ordinary election|6078","CO-CON-68872|2015|Ordinary election|6079"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68872|2023|Ordinary election|6077","CO-CON-68872|2019|Ordinary election|6078","CO-CON-68872|2015|Ordinary election|6079"],"shares":[[0.37128803060666793,0.29203862269994535],[0.4142457499462019,0.36324510436840973],[0.34230427046263345,0.2684608540925267]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":64.88290997280907,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,17.289123701949354,37.12880306066679,9.291309892512297,5.720531973036983,0,0,0,0,30.570231371834577],[36.324510436840974,0,41.42457499462019,0,22.250914568538843,0,0,0,0,0,0],[16.43683274021352,0,34.230427046263344,20.19572953736655,2.0240213523131674,0,0,0,0.2669039145907473,0,26.84608540925267]],"volatility_latest":73.41956640553835,"volatility_previous":47.30871886120997,"volatility_mean":60.36414263337416,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-68895","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Zapatoca","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.52009012392039,5.624172915747685,12.981518592741036],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-68895|2023|Ordinary election|6080","CO-CON-68895|2019|Ordinary election|6081","CO-CON-68895|2015|Ordinary election|6082"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-68895|2023|Ordinary election|6080","CO-CON-68895|2019|Ordinary election|6081","CO-CON-68895|2015|Ordinary election|6082"],"shares":[[0.21723619977469022,0.16203529853548632],[0.2611380679311866,0.20489633877370975],[0.3012692050768203,0.17145401914940994]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":68.51271095824679,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[21.72361997746902,16.20352985354863,0,11.227938415321066,12.48591813743898,10.608336462636125,14.307172361997747,0,0,0,13.443484791588435],[26.11380679311866,20.489633877370974,4.830172033524482,19.673577415086015,9.439788266431407,10.851345390383766,6.131451257168064,2.47022496691663,0,0,0],[30.12692050768203,14.673792028501447,15.364061456245825,17.145401914940994,6.346025384101536,7.81563126252505,5.767089735025607,0,0,0,2.7610777109775104]],"volatility_latest":24.665335767425688,"volatility_previous":17.30808084826222,"volatility_mean":20.986708307843955,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-70001","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Sincelejo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.2190577860971175,1.0575660978811179,2.272803656651206],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-70001|2023|Ordinary election|6083","CO-CON-70001|2019|Ordinary election|6084","CO-CON-70001|2015|Ordinary election|6085"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-70001|2023|Ordinary election|6083","CO-CON-70001|2019|Ordinary election|6084","CO-CON-70001|2015|Ordinary election|6085"],"shares":[[0.26292198913448817,0.19073141127351698],[0.19857491093193325,0.18799924995312206],[0.2656029441419641,0.24287490757545205]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.62007566656138,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[19.073141127351697,26.292198913448814,4.762984140447343,8.59369858806841,5.198043330432939,0,4.193385637928387,4.820017109890833,0,0,27.066531152431583],[19.857491093193325,17.562347646727922,18.799924995312207,17.088318019876244,0,0,2.7961747609225576,8.157509844365272,0,0,15.738233639602475],[24.287490757545203,26.56029441419641,11.472407071318143,9.255058143442898,3.013040263493984,0,1.1847146602137528,0,0.7057874571486187,0.9032399005175775,22.617967332123413]],"volatility_latest":26.653402986988766,"volatility_previous":24.929747745501487,"volatility_mean":25.791575366245127,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-70110","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Buenavista","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.621602979721338,7.357859531772576,0.829383886255922],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-70110|2023|Ordinary election|6086","CO-CON-70110|2019|Ordinary election|6087","CO-CON-70110|2015|Ordinary election|6088"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-70110|2023|Ordinary election|6086","CO-CON-70110|2019|Ordinary election|6087","CO-CON-70110|2015|Ordinary election|6088"],"shares":[[0.22996275348323905,0.16374672368602566],[0.29887503800547277,0.22529644268774704],[0.24348341232227486,0.23518957345971564]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":68.68370982004916,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-70124","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Caimito","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.083659108678656,11.611611611611615,2.487873572210919],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-70124|2023|Ordinary election|6089","CO-CON-70124|2019|Ordinary election|6090","CO-CON-70124|2015|Ordinary election|6091"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-70124|2023|Ordinary election|6089","CO-CON-70124|2019|Ordinary election|6090","CO-CON-70124|2015|Ordinary election|6091"],"shares":[[0.36278342455043,0.19194683346364347],[0.3081653081653082,0.19204919204919205],[0.2256297918948521,0.20075105617274291]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":30.08766847044115,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[14.698983580922595,0,36.278342455043,0,0,0,19.194683346364346,11.610633307271305,0,0,18.21735731039875],[12.06921206921207,10.853710853710854,30.81653081653082,0,0.8723008723008723,0,19.204919204919204,8.866008866008865,0,0,17.31731731731732],[16.210295728368017,7.870442810201847,18.88593334376467,20.075105617274293,0.25035205758097323,0,5.726803317164763,8.418087936160225,0,0,22.562979189485212]],"volatility_latest":11.736247584566582,"volatility_previous":29.461851148598136,"volatility_mean":20.59904936658236,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-70204","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Coloso (Ricaurte)","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.877862595419842,17.532352419783724,4.067503245348334],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-70204|2023|Ordinary election|6092","CO-CON-70204|2019|Ordinary election|6093","CO-CON-70204|2015|Ordinary election|6094"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-70204|2023|Ordinary election|6092","CO-CON-70204|2019|Ordinary election|6093","CO-CON-70204|2015|Ordinary election|6094"],"shares":[[0.5413740458015267,0.3625954198473283],[0.4293564970749867,0.25403297287714943],[0.4011250540891389,0.36045002163565554]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":18.03413196139072,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-70215","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Corozal","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.4513456373921478,1.2981855947217298,9.346489809123263],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-70215|2023|Ordinary election|6095","CO-CON-70215|2019|Ordinary election|6096","CO-CON-70215|2015|Ordinary election|6097"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-70215|2023|Ordinary election|6095","CO-CON-70215|2019|Ordinary election|6096","CO-CON-70215|2015|Ordinary election|6097"],"shares":[[0.22701559910862237,0.2125021427347009],[0.2265562954364958,0.2135744394892785],[0.280588806211582,0.1871239081203494]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":89.02543979117932,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-70221","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Coveñas","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.116283506629781,7.965616045845273,1.0045778229908464],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-70221|2023|Ordinary election|6098","CO-CON-70221|2019|Ordinary election|6099","CO-CON-70221|2015|Ordinary election|6100"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-70221|2023|Ordinary election|6098","CO-CON-70221|2019|Ordinary election|6099","CO-CON-70221|2015|Ordinary election|6100"],"shares":[[0.23876752837928072,0.16760469331298292],[0.26154727793696275,0.18189111747851],[0.19277721261444558,0.18273143438453712]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":66.20043649984733,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-70230","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Chalan","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.546121593291403,7.8986147951665195,6.272000000000002],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-70230|2023|Ordinary election|6101","CO-CON-70230|2019|Ordinary election|6102","CO-CON-70230|2015|Ordinary election|6103"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-70230|2023|Ordinary election|6101","CO-CON-70230|2019|Ordinary election|6102","CO-CON-70230|2015|Ordinary election|6103"],"shares":[[0.23139412997903563,0.21593291404612158],[0.2702623047450634,0.19127615679339818],[0.25120000000000003,0.18847999999999998]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.37771302737602,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-70233|2023|Ordinary election|6104","CO-CON-70233|2019|Ordinary election|6105","CO-CON-70233|2015|Ordinary election|6106"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-70233|2023|Ordinary election|6104","CO-CON-70233|2019|Ordinary election|6105","CO-CON-70233|2015|Ordinary election|6106"],"shares":[[0.25185088972593844,0.2369138849201195],[0.26849155503785677,0.26135701805474665],[0.24183006535947713,0.20637254901960783]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":92.67584219379434,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-70235|2023|Ordinary election|6107","CO-CON-70235|2019|Ordinary election|6108","CO-CON-70235|2015|Ordinary election|6109"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-70235|2023|Ordinary election|6107","CO-CON-70235|2019|Ordinary election|6108","CO-CON-70235|2015|Ordinary election|6109"],"shares":[[0.2897390501116157,0.2544068970825957],[0.33423890672594053,0.31695068741252985],[0.2915545992469069,0.2067419759727452]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":82.56649003057429,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-70265|2023|Ordinary election|6110","CO-CON-70265|2019|Ordinary election|6111","CO-CON-70265|2015|Ordinary election|6112"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-70265|2023|Ordinary election|6110","CO-CON-70265|2019|Ordinary election|6111","CO-CON-70265|2015|Ordinary election|6112"],"shares":[[0.18441403926234382,0.17975411461431687],[0.2650852141870106,0.15350069092584062],[0.195400900352841,0.1621851806789147]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.2035581327201,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-70400|2023|Ordinary election|6113","CO-CON-70400|2019|Ordinary election|6114","CO-CON-70400|2015|Ordinary election|6115"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-70400|2023|Ordinary election|6113","CO-CON-70400|2019|Ordinary election|6114","CO-CON-70400|2015|Ordinary election|6115"],"shares":[[0.3150927786313675,0.3078832289327503],[0.3504622077215878,0.18991299619358348],[0.2675710780776447,0.25660268437003897]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":73.2063336758339,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-70418|2023|Ordinary election|6116","CO-CON-70418|2019|Ordinary election|6117","CO-CON-70418|2015|Ordinary election|6118"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-70418|2023|Ordinary election|6116","CO-CON-70418|2019|Ordinary election|6117","CO-CON-70418|2015|Ordinary election|6118"],"shares":[[0.2277227722772277,0.1789343408025013],[0.21838524759997238,0.2176945921679674],[0.2748091603053435,0.19738276990185388]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":81.38855272260686,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-70429","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Majagual","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.980266976204295,11.390965225869351,1.7509727626459153],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-70429|2023|Ordinary election|6119","CO-CON-70429|2019|Ordinary election|6120","CO-CON-70429|2015|Ordinary election|6121"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-70429|2023|Ordinary election|6119","CO-CON-70429|2019|Ordinary election|6120","CO-CON-70429|2015|Ordinary election|6121"],"shares":[[0.2777132907719094,0.1979106210098665],[0.3008883111255552,0.18697865886686166],[0.2475394827191577,0.23002975509269855]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":58.097264851260135,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,3.530663571290385,27.771329077190945,17.40665505900561,19.79106210098665,2.384407041981041,16.28941768233701,2.5246662797446313,0,0,10.301799187463725],[7.767305817354566,16.190011916368757,5.741523128588452,10.09641425631026,30.088831112555518,2.4103564077564728,18.697865886686166,0.11374715632109197,0,0,8.893944318058715],[6.7063401235980775,20.038910505836576,24.75394827191577,23.002975509269856,2.2545204852368963,0,7.587548638132295,0,0,0.44632639047837036,15.209430075532158]],"volatility_latest":33.158820744126395,"volatility_previous":42.52969713370655,"volatility_mean":37.84425893891647,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-70473","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Morroa","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.15646258503401,4.483563509044931,20.836928386540123],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-70473|2023|Ordinary election|6122","CO-CON-70473|2019|Ordinary election|6123","CO-CON-70473|2015|Ordinary election|6124"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-70473|2023|Ordinary election|6122","CO-CON-70473|2019|Ordinary election|6123","CO-CON-70473|2015|Ordinary election|6124"],"shares":[[0.3551020408163265,0.2835374149659864],[0.3474032289437852,0.3025675938533359],[0.4357204486626402,0.227351164797239]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":61.386802788060514,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-70508","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Ovejas","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.8105476915725944,1.6078606520768233,0.32644950677737583],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-70508|2023|Ordinary election|6125","CO-CON-70508|2019|Ordinary election|6126","CO-CON-70508|2015|Ordinary election|6127"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-70508|2023|Ordinary election|6125","CO-CON-70508|2019|Ordinary election|6126","CO-CON-70508|2015|Ordinary election|6127"],"shares":[[0.29421250671922594,0.2561070298035],[0.2975818286224718,0.28150322210170353],[0.19338584912355405,0.1901213540557803]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":85.99334119377829,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-70523","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Palmito","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.114135477884318,2.7167980594299586,1.591549295774648],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-70523|2023|Ordinary election|6128","CO-CON-70523|2019|Ordinary election|6129","CO-CON-70523|2015|Ordinary election|6130"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-70523|2023|Ordinary election|6128","CO-CON-70523|2019|Ordinary election|6129","CO-CON-70523|2015|Ordinary election|6130"],"shares":[[0.28466852252809566,0.21352716774925248],[0.2178289872650091,0.1906610066707095],[0.22816901408450704,0.21225352112676055]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":73.78662182931478,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-70670","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Sampues","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.7725224372325528,0.37091988130563536,6.5842550422901756],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-70670|2023|Ordinary election|6131","CO-CON-70670|2019|Ordinary election|6132","CO-CON-70670|2015|Ordinary election|6133"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-70670|2023|Ordinary election|6131","CO-CON-70670|2019|Ordinary election|6132","CO-CON-70670|2015|Ordinary election|6133"],"shares":[[0.1711288673457795,0.163403642973454],[0.2128667985492911,0.20915759973623477],[0.22437649099978313,0.15853394057688136]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":93.8339253451988,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-70678|2023|Ordinary election|6134","CO-CON-70678|2019|Ordinary election|6135","CO-CON-70678|2015|Ordinary election|6136"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-70678|2023|Ordinary election|6134","CO-CON-70678|2019|Ordinary election|6135","CO-CON-70678|2015|Ordinary election|6136"],"shares":[[0.26733843378739813,0.2380419232443864],[0.2726326742976067,0.17100242802636142],[0.2064112011790715,0.1982313927781872]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.55751947636547,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-70702|2023|Ordinary election|6137","CO-CON-70702|2019|Ordinary election|6138","CO-CON-70702|2015|Ordinary election|6139"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-70702|2023|Ordinary election|6137","CO-CON-70702|2019|Ordinary election|6138","CO-CON-70702|2015|Ordinary election|6139"],"shares":[[0.17341220423412204,0.1453922789539228],[0.15379508740871872,0.15302057977428635],[0.21205635812377385,0.18048867487069736]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":89.89946210812155,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-70708","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"San Marcos","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.834622792413409,1.6500711237553354,3.510225603555421],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-70708|2023|Ordinary election|6140","CO-CON-70708|2019|Ordinary election|6141","CO-CON-70708|2015|Ordinary election|6142"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-70708|2023|Ordinary election|6140","CO-CON-70708|2019|Ordinary election|6141","CO-CON-70708|2015|Ordinary election|6142"],"shares":[[0.1632226683641824,0.14487644044004833],[0.18673541963015647,0.17023470839260313],[0.19242213099318292,0.1573198749576287]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":90.26591213534905,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-70713","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"San Onofre","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.2818019523682924,2.9097559961757504,11.838194315437491],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-70713|2023|Ordinary election|6143","CO-CON-70713|2019|Ordinary election|6144","CO-CON-70713|2015|Ordinary election|6145"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-70713|2023|Ordinary election|6143","CO-CON-70713|2019|Ordinary election|6144","CO-CON-70713|2015|Ordinary election|6145"],"shares":[[0.16887605879895165,0.13605803927526872],[0.201937066134597,0.1728395061728395],[0.2915195987367639,0.173137655582389]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":79.87086299091276,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-70717|2023|Ordinary election|6146","CO-CON-70717|2019|Ordinary election|6147","CO-CON-70717|2015|Ordinary election|6148"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-70717|2023|Ordinary election|6146","CO-CON-70717|2019|Ordinary election|6147","CO-CON-70717|2015|Ordinary election|6148"],"shares":[[0.17342275943396226,0.1526385613207547],[0.19168348809043198,0.1761808639483246],[0.2507718696397942,0.2476843910806175]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":91.28497301676279,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-70742|2023|Ordinary election|6149","CO-CON-70742|2019|Ordinary election|6150","CO-CON-70742|2015|Ordinary election|6151"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-70742|2023|Ordinary election|6149","CO-CON-70742|2019|Ordinary election|6150","CO-CON-70742|2015|Ordinary election|6151"],"shares":[[0.21321805392731538,0.21194802657288003],[0.28795361820914755,0.25869658578484],[0.45858662613981765,0.14010258358662614]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":79.3062348023637,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-70771|2023|Ordinary election|6152","CO-CON-70771|2019|Ordinary election|6153","CO-CON-70771|2015|Ordinary election|6154"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-70771|2023|Ordinary election|6152","CO-CON-70771|2019|Ordinary election|6153","CO-CON-70771|2015|Ordinary election|6154"],"shares":[[0.18632825719120136,0.1619627749576988],[0.2780138829862587,0.19032440855645277],[0.2574417919245505,0.21080165045682286]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":77.20492709209196,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-70820|2023|Ordinary election|6155","CO-CON-70820|2019|Ordinary election|6156","CO-CON-70820|2015|Ordinary election|6157"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-70820|2023|Ordinary election|6155","CO-CON-70820|2019|Ordinary election|6156","CO-CON-70820|2015|Ordinary election|6157"],"shares":[[0.16498900844614137,0.16412125419414555],[0.1624715367099514,0.13256200381561942],[0.21792533138757142,0.20333211723215372]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":94.52358308248057,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-70823","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Toluviejo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.20318750396850582,0.2556131260794494,6.717226435536293],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-70823|2023|Ordinary election|6158","CO-CON-70823|2019|Ordinary election|6159","CO-CON-70823|2015|Ordinary election|6160"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-70823|2023|Ordinary election|6158","CO-CON-70823|2019|Ordinary election|6159","CO-CON-70823|2015|Ordinary election|6160"],"shares":[[0.145787034097403,0.14375515905771796],[0.17202072538860105,0.16946459412780654],[0.28469965089683397,0.21752738654147105]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":95.64840458120716,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,14.375515905771795,7.981459140262873,12.53412915105721,0,11.486443583719602,0,8.76246110864182,0,0,44.8599911105467],[1.609671848013817,17.202072538860104,12.939550949913643,16.08981001727116,9.4853195164076,0,16.946459412780655,12.863557858376511,0,0,12.863557858376511],[1.8538581918863608,28.4699650896834,10.737931864692428,20.22390754785121,1.1315757794631034,0,8.426628144938004,7.403394727338389,0,0,21.752738654147105]],"volatility_latest":43.48287683588979,"volatility_previous":24.535357221046482,"volatility_mean":34.00911702846814,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-73001","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Ibague","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.892063334737468,0.5907684908898148,2.9055137367863253],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73001|2023|Ordinary election|6161","CO-CON-73001|2019|Ordinary election|6162","CO-CON-73001|2015|Ordinary election|6163"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73001|2023|Ordinary election|6161","CO-CON-73001|2019|Ordinary election|6162","CO-CON-73001|2015|Ordinary election|6163"],"shares":[[0.2037316946254677,0.12481106127809301],[0.1089287470898777,0.10302106218097955],[0.1389983423462594,0.10994320497839614]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":73.98490039105971,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-73024","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Alpujarra","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.299065420560744,29.568788501026695,11.77924217462932],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73024|2023|Ordinary election|6164","CO-CON-73024|2019|Ordinary election|6165","CO-CON-73024|2015|Ordinary election|6166"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73024|2023|Ordinary election|6164","CO-CON-73024|2019|Ordinary election|6165","CO-CON-73024|2015|Ordinary election|6166"],"shares":[[0.42467289719626167,0.26168224299065423],[0.497741273100616,0.20205338809034906],[0.3620263591433278,0.2442339373970346]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0.8599998994630598,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-73026","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Alvarado","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.407980736154112,3.2950480135567695,20.085719851938443],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73026|2023|Ordinary election|6167","CO-CON-73026|2019|Ordinary election|6168","CO-CON-73026|2015|Ordinary election|6169"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73026|2023|Ordinary election|6167","CO-CON-73026|2019|Ordinary election|6168","CO-CON-73026|2015|Ordinary election|6169"],"shares":[[0.2782937736498108,0.2542139662882697],[0.2684993409903973,0.2355488608548296],[0.4776933567114748,0.2768361581920904]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":77.79062584523328,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-73030","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Ambalema","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.265788831992197,1.6592661836877802,13.75119161105815],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73030|2023|Ordinary election|6170","CO-CON-73030|2019|Ordinary election|6171","CO-CON-73030|2015|Ordinary election|6172"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73030|2023|Ordinary election|6170","CO-CON-73030|2019|Ordinary election|6171","CO-CON-73030|2015|Ordinary election|6172"],"shares":[[0.26847110460863205,0.16581321628871007],[0.23112876840383267,0.21453610656695488],[0.28527168732125835,0.14775977121067682]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":59.83813842296267,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73043|2023|Ordinary election|6173","CO-CON-73043|2019|Ordinary election|6174","CO-CON-73043|2015|Ordinary election|6175"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73043|2023|Ordinary election|6173","CO-CON-73043|2019|Ordinary election|6174","CO-CON-73043|2015|Ordinary election|6175"],"shares":[[0.22179345828739433,0.1846747519294377],[0.23577749683944377,0.23008849557522124],[0.2760950605778192,0.18336439888164027]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":83.37450481817068,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73055|2023|Ordinary election|6176","CO-CON-73055|2019|Ordinary election|6177","CO-CON-73055|2015|Ordinary election|6178"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73055|2023|Ordinary election|6176","CO-CON-73055|2019|Ordinary election|6177","CO-CON-73055|2015|Ordinary election|6178"],"shares":[[0.15827825792238603,0.1252330113540078],[0.16428571428571426,0.16312292358803987],[0.2292849035187287,0.15815361331819902]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":86.35544291480888,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-73067","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Ataco","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.8947885939036393,2.2797698096502863,4.86517498565691],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73067|2023|Ordinary election|6179","CO-CON-73067|2019|Ordinary election|6180","CO-CON-73067|2015|Ordinary election|6181"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73067|2023|Ordinary election|6179","CO-CON-73067|2019|Ordinary election|6180","CO-CON-73067|2015|Ordinary election|6181"],"shares":[[0.13411996066863324,0.12517207472959685],[0.16832669322709162,0.14552899513058876],[0.21537578886976477,0.16672403901319566]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":91.4633920109852,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-73124","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Cajamarca","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.859203372905803,9.524849808847623,2.1838440111420603],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73124|2023|Ordinary election|6182","CO-CON-73124|2019|Ordinary election|6183","CO-CON-73124|2015|Ordinary election|6184"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73124|2023|Ordinary election|6182","CO-CON-73124|2019|Ordinary election|6183","CO-CON-73124|2015|Ordinary election|6184"],"shares":[[0.2840341728614224,0.15544213913236438],[0.2322228290551611,0.13697433096668488],[0.21459610027855153,0.19275766016713092]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":46.04319316244012,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73148|2023|Ordinary election|6185","CO-CON-73148|2019|Ordinary election|6186","CO-CON-73148|2015|Ordinary election|6187"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73148|2023|Ordinary election|6185","CO-CON-73148|2019|Ordinary election|6186","CO-CON-73148|2015|Ordinary election|6187"],"shares":[[0.16685812751292362,0.13110281447443997],[0.14976997784971885,0.1301754983813256],[0.14057625252339878,0.13158377683978711]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":85.88461038401533,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73152|2023|Ordinary election|6188","CO-CON-73152|2019|Ordinary election|6189","CO-CON-73152|2015|Ordinary election|6190"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73152|2023|Ordinary election|6188","CO-CON-73152|2019|Ordinary election|6189","CO-CON-73152|2015|Ordinary election|6190"],"shares":[[0.33670212765957447,0.1723404255319149],[0.32593225163677764,0.3213777398235127],[0.48680533995653524,0.3511331884507917]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":43.22470501442521,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73168|2023|Ordinary election|6191","CO-CON-73168|2019|Ordinary election|6192","CO-CON-73168|2015|Ordinary election|6193"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73168|2023|Ordinary election|6191","CO-CON-73168|2019|Ordinary election|6192","CO-CON-73168|2015|Ordinary election|6193"],"shares":[[0.18119862657371763,0.15128498595359482],[0.22897352842622584,0.1751926728470904],[0.28586320727399084,0.19540163317310477]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":78.43570077204853,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73200|2023|Ordinary election|6194","CO-CON-73200|2019|Ordinary election|6195","CO-CON-73200|2015|Ordinary election|6196"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73200|2023|Ordinary election|6194","CO-CON-73200|2019|Ordinary election|6195","CO-CON-73200|2015|Ordinary election|6196"],"shares":[[0.1649809318520975,0.1502238434753772],[0.2648752399232246,0.19001919385796545],[0.2327127659574468,0.19946808510638298]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":82.68223253464186,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-73217","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Coyaima","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.423585598824392,7.1531941285921015,6.792199058507062],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73217|2023|Ordinary election|6197","CO-CON-73217|2019|Ordinary election|6198","CO-CON-73217|2015|Ordinary election|6199"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73217|2023|Ordinary election|6197","CO-CON-73217|2019|Ordinary election|6198","CO-CON-73217|2015|Ordinary election|6199"],"shares":[[0.18828067597354883,0.17404481998530494],[0.2173868100062022,0.14585486872028117],[0.24321900919076442,0.1752970186056938]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":81.60335248138514,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[17.404481998530493,18.828067597354885,6.621969140337987,7.613886847905952,9.45077149155033,0,4.711609110947832,12.086700955180016,0,0,23.282512858192504],[9.21025428984908,21.73868100062022,14.585486872028117,10.285300806284887,7.6907173868100065,12.052925366962993,0,7.959479015918958,8.166218730618152,0,8.310936530907588],[2.2864828513786146,24.32190091907644,17.52970186056938,11.589329746693567,4.98767092580139,3.8444295001120823,3.810804752297691,6.7361578121497425,7.565568258238063,0,17.32795337368303]],"volatility_latest":33.76468919091555,"volatility_previous":19.659285442479298,"volatility_mean":26.711987316697424,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-73226","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Cunday","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.626373626373628,11.91208791208791,5.861746847267632],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73226|2023|Ordinary election|6200","CO-CON-73226|2019|Ordinary election|6201","CO-CON-73226|2015|Ordinary election|6202"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73226|2023|Ordinary election|6200","CO-CON-73226|2019|Ordinary election|6201","CO-CON-73226|2015|Ordinary election|6202"],"shares":[[0.28945054945054943,0.11318681318681319],[0.26307692307692304,0.14395604395604397],[0.2718355908453993,0.213218122372723]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":26.32187382911344,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-73236","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Dolores","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.389380530973451,3.033175355450238,0.8323133414932666],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73236|2023|Ordinary election|6203","CO-CON-73236|2019|Ordinary election|6204","CO-CON-73236|2015|Ordinary election|6205"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73236|2023|Ordinary election|6203","CO-CON-73236|2019|Ordinary election|6204","CO-CON-73236|2015|Ordinary election|6205"],"shares":[[0.134070796460177,0.11017699115044248],[0.17914691943127964,0.14881516587677723],[0.14981640146878825,0.14149326805385556]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.86593870315765,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-73268","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Espinal","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.9760676707241593,12.8491318882778,16.35614272809395],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73268|2023|Ordinary election|6206","CO-CON-73268|2019|Ordinary election|6207","CO-CON-73268|2015|Ordinary election|6208"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73268|2023|Ordinary election|6206","CO-CON-73268|2019|Ordinary election|6207","CO-CON-73268|2015|Ordinary election|6208"],"shares":[[0.2008458840519909,0.17108520734474933],[0.3277256551277904,0.19923433624501238],[0.3630024841915086,0.19944105691056913]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":63.62002779136385,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73270|2023|Ordinary election|6209","CO-CON-73270|2019|Ordinary election|6210","CO-CON-73270|2015|Ordinary election|6211"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73270|2023|Ordinary election|6209","CO-CON-73270|2019|Ordinary election|6210","CO-CON-73270|2015|Ordinary election|6211"],"shares":[[0.3339975093399751,0.22814445828144458],[0.4330453563714903,0.35043196544276456],[0.3569498649054338,0.22876013209246474]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":49.44258940248353,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73275|2023|Ordinary election|6212","CO-CON-73275|2019|Ordinary election|6213","CO-CON-73275|2015|Ordinary election|6214"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73275|2023|Ordinary election|6212","CO-CON-73275|2019|Ordinary election|6213","CO-CON-73275|2015|Ordinary election|6214"],"shares":[[0.18562824849434864,0.12531969309462915],[0.170462270564242,0.15873555404486744],[0.19591484464902187,0.17433831990794016]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":79.06959966512387,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-73283","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Fresno","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[19.148474772300126,7.570909090909094,8.772626230549378],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73283|2023|Ordinary election|6215","CO-CON-73283|2019|Ordinary election|6216","CO-CON-73283|2015|Ordinary election|6217"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73283|2023|Ordinary election|6215","CO-CON-73283|2019|Ordinary election|6216","CO-CON-73283|2015|Ordinary election|6217"],"shares":[[0.34682665895619486,0.15534191123319357],[0.3541818181818182,0.27847272727272726],[0.3934582407113369,0.30573197840584315]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":26.811898931461297,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-73319","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Guamo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[14.493963524274339,1.0234512674528915,4.255759415091738],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73319|2023|Ordinary election|6218","CO-CON-73319|2019|Ordinary election|6219","CO-CON-73319|2015|Ordinary election|6220"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73319|2023|Ordinary election|6218","CO-CON-73319|2019|Ordinary election|6219","CO-CON-73319|2015|Ordinary election|6220"],"shares":[[0.31871307474955046,0.17377343950680707],[0.18001897790429713,0.1697844652297682],[0.31728514277831427,0.2747275486273969]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":52.855052818451774,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-73347","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Herveo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.899018232819074,8.730873087308733,18.80887268307505],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73347|2023|Ordinary election|6221","CO-CON-73347|2019|Ordinary election|6222","CO-CON-73347|2015|Ordinary election|6223"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73347|2023|Ordinary election|6221","CO-CON-73347|2019|Ordinary election|6222","CO-CON-73347|2015|Ordinary election|6223"],"shares":[[0.2311360448807854,0.19214586255259467],[0.3582358235823582,0.2709270927092709],[0.31965967790945,0.13157095107869948]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":65.80219932904215,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73349|2023|Ordinary election|6224","CO-CON-73349|2019|Ordinary election|6225","CO-CON-73349|2015|Ordinary election|6226"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73349|2023|Ordinary election|6224","CO-CON-73349|2019|Ordinary election|6225","CO-CON-73349|2015|Ordinary election|6226"],"shares":[[0.24174279690794098,0.17381119700163972],[0.25142045454545453,0.1681149732620321],[0.23568586749697285,0.2035115032001384]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":65.51597962075452,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-73352","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Icononzo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.122676579925649,9.196290571870172,5.933831376734261],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73352|2023|Ordinary election|6227","CO-CON-73352|2019|Ordinary election|6228","CO-CON-73352|2015|Ordinary election|6229"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73352|2023|Ordinary election|6227","CO-CON-73352|2019|Ordinary election|6228","CO-CON-73352|2015|Ordinary election|6229"],"shares":[[0.2605947955390334,0.17936802973977695],[0.3323029366306028,0.2403400309119011],[0.3272145144076841,0.2678762006403415]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":58.87061871405066,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73408|2023|Ordinary election|6230","CO-CON-73408|2019|Ordinary election|6231","CO-CON-73408|2015|Ordinary election|6232"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73408|2023|Ordinary election|6230","CO-CON-73408|2019|Ordinary election|6231","CO-CON-73408|2015|Ordinary election|6232"],"shares":[[0.28128388635870744,0.16482324875298202],[0.19884045522868798,0.17124758428172643],[0.20580930785012416,0.16596479861785984]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":58.93065261462491,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-73411","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Libano","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.006470075898969,3.50160092649363,10.874215630347976],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73411|2023|Ordinary election|6233","CO-CON-73411|2019|Ordinary election|6234","CO-CON-73411|2015|Ordinary election|6235"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73411|2023|Ordinary election|6233","CO-CON-73411|2019|Ordinary election|6234","CO-CON-73411|2015|Ordinary election|6235"],"shares":[[0.19528431006594502,0.15521960930695533],[0.17031132910961236,0.13529531984467608],[0.2783086138049059,0.16956645750142613]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":77.29108056738866,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73443|2023|Ordinary election|6236","CO-CON-73443|2019|Ordinary election|6237","CO-CON-73443|2015|Ordinary election|6238"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73443|2023|Ordinary election|6236","CO-CON-73443|2019|Ordinary election|6237","CO-CON-73443|2015|Ordinary election|6238"],"shares":[[0.12386806794897216,0.12340538039526736],[0.1719071616154447,0.1534530484775357],[0.16751201281366793,0.16497597437266417]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":96.96627484115203,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73449|2023|Ordinary election|6239","CO-CON-73449|2019|Ordinary election|6240","CO-CON-73449|2015|Ordinary election|6241"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73449|2023|Ordinary election|6239","CO-CON-73449|2019|Ordinary election|6240","CO-CON-73449|2015|Ordinary election|6241"],"shares":[[0.3058997501402274,0.15450512467492733],[0.28956682959716834,0.1449519635934603],[0.2616990864458393,0.23752408178484866]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":31.68063222680424,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-73461","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Murillo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.196032120925839,2.111801242236023,10.883054892601436],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73461|2023|Ordinary election|6242","CO-CON-73461|2019|Ordinary election|6243","CO-CON-73461|2015|Ordinary election|6244"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73461|2023|Ordinary election|6242","CO-CON-73461|2019|Ordinary election|6243","CO-CON-73461|2015|Ordinary election|6244"],"shares":[[0.322153991497402,0.2701936702881436],[0.3217391304347826,0.30062111801242236],[0.3436754176610979,0.23484486873508353]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.80267432756773,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-73483","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Natagaima","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.4698512137823023,3.7020316027088054,11.288022813688215],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73483|2023|Ordinary election|6245","CO-CON-73483|2019|Ordinary election|6246","CO-CON-73483|2015|Ordinary election|6247"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73483|2023|Ordinary election|6245","CO-CON-73483|2019|Ordinary election|6246","CO-CON-73483|2015|Ordinary election|6247"],"shares":[[0.20516836335160535,0.2004698512137823],[0.1825056433408578,0.14548532731376976],[0.28564638783269963,0.1727661596958175]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.39338754774577,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-73504","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Ortega","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[null,5.114454938370418,7.649524423665969],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73504|2023|Ordinary election|6248","CO-CON-73504|2019|Ordinary election|6249","CO-CON-73504|2015|Ordinary election|6250"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73504|2023|Ordinary election|6248","CO-CON-73504|2019|Ordinary election|6249","CO-CON-73504|2015|Ordinary election|6250"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.2527613254362094,0.20161677605250522],[0.3456392068354022,0.26914396259874257]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73520|2023|Ordinary election|6251","CO-CON-73520|2019|Ordinary election|6252","CO-CON-73520|2015|Ordinary election|6253"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73520|2023|Ordinary election|6251","CO-CON-73520|2019|Ordinary election|6252","CO-CON-73520|2015|Ordinary election|6253"],"shares":[[0.2788586251621271,0.2595886603668705],[0.29574717128365197,0.259266484588373],[0.29209154769997736,0.23226829820983458]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":85.75574508262403,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73547|2023|Ordinary election|6254","CO-CON-73547|2019|Ordinary election|6255","CO-CON-73547|2015|Ordinary election|6256"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73547|2023|Ordinary election|6254","CO-CON-73547|2019|Ordinary election|6255","CO-CON-73547|2015|Ordinary election|6256"],"shares":[[0.35719764766044493,0.23753515724878546],[0.2858207102061088,0.1956791656319841],[0.4159779614325069,0.24159779614325066]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":41.86101292592066,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73555|2023|Ordinary election|6257","CO-CON-73555|2019|Ordinary election|6258","CO-CON-73555|2015|Ordinary election|6259"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73555|2023|Ordinary election|6257","CO-CON-73555|2019|Ordinary election|6258","CO-CON-73555|2015|Ordinary election|6259"],"shares":[[0.3435673718001482,0.18964523829121738],[0.26645626690712354,0.2644724977457169],[0.4342971086739781,0.2724825523429711]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":45.435066756559415,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73563|2023|Ordinary election|6260","CO-CON-73563|2019|Ordinary election|6261","CO-CON-73563|2015|Ordinary election|6262"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73563|2023|Ordinary election|6260","CO-CON-73563|2019|Ordinary election|6261","CO-CON-73563|2015|Ordinary election|6262"],"shares":[[0.2871425714857029,0.18656268746250748],[0.3246302720467409,0.18878948329377399],[0.2730361782930242,0.18109134519288428]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":44.85267482508936,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-73585","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Purificacion","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.892572752280294,3.941331327566754,2.5248182599859277],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73585|2023|Ordinary election|6263","CO-CON-73585|2019|Ordinary election|6264","CO-CON-73585|2015|Ordinary election|6265"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73585|2023|Ordinary election|6263","CO-CON-73585|2019|Ordinary election|6264","CO-CON-73585|2015|Ordinary election|6265"],"shares":[[0.17040683364702475,0.1114811061242218],[0.23166603986461076,0.1922527265889432],[0.22371609473931056,0.19846791213945128]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.14787562181601,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-73616","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Rioblanco","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.168118290459795,15.690699608029458,3.6985957873620876],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73616|2023|Ordinary election|6266","CO-CON-73616|2019|Ordinary election|6267","CO-CON-73616|2015|Ordinary election|6268"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73616|2023|Ordinary election|6266","CO-CON-73616|2019|Ordinary election|6267","CO-CON-73616|2015|Ordinary election|6268"],"shares":[[0.37654446019850113,0.2748632772939032],[0.4200023755790474,0.26309537949875283],[0.3914242728184554,0.35443831494483446]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":44.1102978228954,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73622|2023|Ordinary election|6269","CO-CON-73622|2019|Ordinary election|6270","CO-CON-73622|2015|Ordinary election|6271"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73622|2023|Ordinary election|6269","CO-CON-73622|2019|Ordinary election|6270","CO-CON-73622|2015|Ordinary election|6271"],"shares":[[0.2810699588477366,0.24238683127572017],[0.33980967486122127,0.23671689135606663],[0.2518232518232518,0.22565422565422566]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":71.62269289417056,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-73624","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Rovira","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.6341292134831455,2.387400942923062,10.910382624581349],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73624|2023|Ordinary election|6272","CO-CON-73624|2019|Ordinary election|6273","CO-CON-73624|2015|Ordinary election|6274"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73624|2023|Ordinary election|6272","CO-CON-73624|2019|Ordinary election|6273","CO-CON-73624|2015|Ordinary election|6274"],"shares":[[0.24464536516853932,0.20830407303370788],[0.15377670779416192,0.1299026983649313],[0.2812341418857201,0.1721303156399066]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.0613196328753,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-73671","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Saldaña","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.2076339388365156,0.7155635062611818,2.0766976684928036],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73671|2023|Ordinary election|6275","CO-CON-73671|2019|Ordinary election|6276","CO-CON-73671|2015|Ordinary election|6277"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73671|2023|Ordinary election|6275","CO-CON-73671|2019|Ordinary election|6276","CO-CON-73671|2015|Ordinary election|6277"],"shares":[[0.16992412048746838,0.13784778109910323],[0.13488372093023257,0.12772808586762074],[0.16855650401325012,0.14778952732832207]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":88.26540408985228,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[16.99241204874684,4.8746838353644515,6.840653023683606,5.932398252471833,3.403081168084617,9.841342837433892,7.5994481489997705,2.6672798344446997,0,0,41.84870085077029],[13.488372093023257,9.62432915921288,12.772808586762075,9.516994633273702,8.431723315444245,5.1639833035181875,8.097793679189028,0,0,8.407871198568873,24.496124031007753],[16.85565040132501,9.007516881131354,14.294814626067016,12.014269333673079,0.5478404892342974,6.332016817428972,8.689004968785833,1.949292903554593,2.140400050961906,14.778952732832208,13.390240795005733]],"volatility_latest":28.20125614384653,"volatility_previous":19.606578340293495,"volatility_mean":23.903917242070012,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-73675","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"San Antonio","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.969634667088407,21.41834949912546,16.80197670314155],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73675|2023|Ordinary election|6278","CO-CON-73675|2019|Ordinary election|6279","CO-CON-73675|2015|Ordinary election|6280"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73675|2023|Ordinary election|6278","CO-CON-73675|2019|Ordinary election|6279","CO-CON-73675|2015|Ordinary election|6280"],"shares":[[0.2794559544520006,0.23975960778111655],[0.37271426299888694,0.15853076800763236],[0.33921637839745855,0.17119661136604308]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":47.56258339847582,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-73678","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"San Luis","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.575386012715711,8.939597315436242,2.9425429766145257],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73678|2023|Ordinary election|6281","CO-CON-73678|2019|Ordinary election|6282","CO-CON-73678|2015|Ordinary election|6283"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73678|2023|Ordinary election|6281","CO-CON-73678|2019|Ordinary election|6282","CO-CON-73678|2015|Ordinary election|6283"],"shares":[[0.22002724795640327,0.17427338782924615],[0.25543624161073825,0.16604026845637584],[0.2529038253058696,0.22347839553972434]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":71.39317450039124,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-73686","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Santa Isabel","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.10806577916993,9.617071031862029,12.790346907993968],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73686|2023|Ordinary election|6284","CO-CON-73686|2019|Ordinary election|6285","CO-CON-73686|2015|Ordinary election|6286"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73686|2023|Ordinary election|6284","CO-CON-73686|2019|Ordinary election|6285","CO-CON-73686|2015|Ordinary election|6286"],"shares":[[0.3617854346123728,0.3007047768206734],[0.2958199356913183,0.19964922537269802],[0.2956259426847662,0.16772247360482656]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":60.855022660700186,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-73770","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Suarez","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.230637324949985,3.0711375744280787,3.6550176338570033],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73770|2023|Ordinary election|6287","CO-CON-73770|2019|Ordinary election|6288","CO-CON-73770|2015|Ordinary election|6289"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73770|2023|Ordinary election|6287","CO-CON-73770|2019|Ordinary election|6288","CO-CON-73770|2015|Ordinary election|6289"],"shares":[[0.30380108602457845,0.2314947127750786],[0.29269821372610466,0.2619868379818239],[0.25456877204232126,0.2180185957037512]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":71.87387284657942,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73854|2023|Ordinary election|6290","CO-CON-73854|2019|Ordinary election|6291","CO-CON-73854|2015|Ordinary election|6292"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73854|2023|Ordinary election|6290","CO-CON-73854|2019|Ordinary election|6291","CO-CON-73854|2015|Ordinary election|6292"],"shares":[[0.7741214057507988,0.11214057507987221],[0.6393728222996515,0.3060394889663182],[0.5563978168587023,0.2377198302001213]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-73861","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Venadillo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.20638414969730334,0.15882183078255707,5.046072838964456],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73861|2023|Ordinary election|6293","CO-CON-73861|2019|Ordinary election|6294","CO-CON-73861|2015|Ordinary election|6295"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73861|2023|Ordinary election|6293","CO-CON-73861|2019|Ordinary election|6294","CO-CON-73861|2015|Ordinary election|6295"],"shares":[[0.15520088057237205,0.15313703907539902],[0.1670516892867456,0.16546347097892003],[0.3801374872019892,0.32967675881234465]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":96.61957838525203,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-73870","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Villahermosa","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.080040020010003,3.8281057051123746,11.510083620265622],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73870|2023|Ordinary election|6296","CO-CON-73870|2019|Ordinary election|6297","CO-CON-73870|2015|Ordinary election|6298"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73870|2023|Ordinary election|6296","CO-CON-73870|2019|Ordinary election|6297","CO-CON-73870|2015|Ordinary election|6298"],"shares":[[0.30415207603801897,0.20335167583791897],[0.30600148184736975,0.26772042479624597],[0.383177570093458,0.2680767338908018]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":58.26267957216862,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-73873","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Villarrica","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.327868852459016,6.423741547708488,3.79965457685665],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-73873|2023|Ordinary election|6299","CO-CON-73873|2019|Ordinary election|6300","CO-CON-73873|2015|Ordinary election|6301"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-73873|2023|Ordinary election|6299","CO-CON-73873|2019|Ordinary election|6300","CO-CON-73873|2015|Ordinary election|6301"],"shares":[[0.2547540983606557,0.21147540983606558],[0.2764838467317806,0.21224643125469572],[0.2549222797927461,0.21692573402417964]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.4809538326319,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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The 2015 council vector is partial and excluded from three-cycle completeness and vote metrics; positive source entries remain visible for audit.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76001|2023|Ordinary election|6302","CO-CON-76001|2019|Ordinary election|6303","CO-CON-76001|2015|Ordinary election|6304"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76001|2023|Ordinary election|6302","CO-CON-76001|2019|Ordinary election|6303","CO-CON-76001|2015|Ordinary election|6304"],"shares":[[0.16503790831594034,0.13674340533608267],[0.17585157894243433,0.16744086485202736],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76020|2023|Ordinary election|6305","CO-CON-76020|2019|Ordinary election|6306","CO-CON-76020|2015|Ordinary election|6307"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76020|2023|Ordinary election|6305","CO-CON-76020|2019|Ordinary election|6306","CO-CON-76020|2015|Ordinary election|6307"],"shares":[[0.4022302497251453,0.15957279723574683],[0.22341714631929718,0.17373523174795516],[0.35185185185185186,0.18783068783068782]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":11.549418866420957,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76036|2023|Ordinary election|6308","CO-CON-76036|2019|Ordinary election|6309","CO-CON-76036|2015|Ordinary election|6310"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76036|2023|Ordinary election|6308","CO-CON-76036|2019|Ordinary election|6309","CO-CON-76036|2015|Ordinary election|6310"],"shares":[[0.41174411481578715,0.20530322919401417],[0.3142857142857143,0.13133928571428571],[0.4355788096795291,0.13603662524525834]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76041|2023|Ordinary election|6311","CO-CON-76041|2019|Ordinary election|6312","CO-CON-76041|2015|Ordinary election|6313"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76041|2023|Ordinary election|6311","CO-CON-76041|2019|Ordinary election|6312","CO-CON-76041|2015|Ordinary election|6313"],"shares":[[0.30650361311839913,0.2961645358532518],[0.3332596196373286,0.2411543564794339],[0.3021978021978022,0.22124542124542124]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":79.03486829915256,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-76054","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Argelia","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.571056062581484,13.256484149855908,5.443322109988774],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76054|2023|Ordinary election|6314","CO-CON-76054|2019|Ordinary election|6315","CO-CON-76054|2015|Ordinary election|6316"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76054|2023|Ordinary election|6314","CO-CON-76054|2019|Ordinary election|6315","CO-CON-76054|2015|Ordinary election|6316"],"shares":[[0.3751629726205997,0.25945241199478486],[0.457572846621838,0.32500800512327893],[0.32659932659932656,0.2721661054994388]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":42.6804445324773,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[25.945241199478488,17.470664928292045,37.51629726205997,3.0638852672750976,15.44980443285528,0,0,0,0,0,0.5541069100391134],[45.7572846621838,0,32.50080051232789,5.699647774575729,0,0,0,6.404098623118796,0,8.037143772014089,1.601024655779699],[27.216610549943884,0,26.150392817059483,32.65993265993266,9.539842873176207,0,0,1.0101010101010102,0,0,3.4231200897867566]],"volatility_latest":37.935966110879406,"volatility_previous":38.32222319254019,"volatility_mean":38.1290946517098,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-76100","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Bolivar","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.691485200156475,0.788880540946657,0.0],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76100|2023|Ordinary election|6317","CO-CON-76100|2019|Ordinary election|6318","CO-CON-76100|2015|Ordinary election|6319"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76100|2023|Ordinary election|6317","CO-CON-76100|2019|Ordinary election|6318","CO-CON-76100|2015|Ordinary election|6319"],"shares":[[0.39535793454166124,0.2584430825400965],[0.23115452041071877,0.2232657150012522],[0.23997698062535966,0.23997698062535966]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":57.74222358811058,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-76109","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Buenaventura","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.765041702922387,3.3735029038801763,12.213895077982583],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76109|2023|Ordinary election|6320","CO-CON-76109|2019|Ordinary election|6321","CO-CON-76109|2015|Ordinary election|6322"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76109|2023|Ordinary election|6320","CO-CON-76109|2019|Ordinary election|6321","CO-CON-76109|2015|Ordinary election|6322"],"shares":[[0.2205585857085252,0.13290816867930133],[0.1416741540770107,0.10793912503820895],[0.2582851622754398,0.13614621149561396]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":62.53767299642128,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76122|2023|Ordinary election|6329","CO-CON-76122|2019|Ordinary election|6330","CO-CON-76122|2015|Ordinary election|6331"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76122|2023|Ordinary election|6329","CO-CON-76122|2019|Ordinary election|6330","CO-CON-76122|2015|Ordinary election|6331"],"shares":[[0.29042739315171207,0.1522119470132467],[0.5212307692307693,0.1185934065934066],[0.5005837711617046,0.18593111500291887]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76126|2023|Ordinary election|6332","CO-CON-76126|2019|Ordinary election|6333","CO-CON-76126|2015|Ordinary election|6334"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76126|2023|Ordinary election|6332","CO-CON-76126|2019|Ordinary election|6333","CO-CON-76126|2015|Ordinary election|6334"],"shares":[[0.23248283901049088,0.17536588524802485],[0.1436758629881381,0.12728242036518725],[0.35010060362173034,0.12751509054325955]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":69.27662182389402,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-76130","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Candelaria","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.791074277821437,12.318636607896824,4.3402379093372545],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76130|2023|Ordinary election|6335","CO-CON-76130|2019|Ordinary election|6336","CO-CON-76130|2015|Ordinary election|6337"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76130|2023|Ordinary election|6335","CO-CON-76130|2019|Ordinary election|6336","CO-CON-76130|2015|Ordinary election|6337"],"shares":[[0.1944940582505775,0.16658331547236313],[0.2684562040993884,0.14526983802042018],[0.2035548615257429,0.16015248243237035]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":70.97870330002183,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76147|2023|Ordinary election|6338","CO-CON-76147|2019|Ordinary election|6339","CO-CON-76147|2015|Ordinary election|6340"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76147|2023|Ordinary election|6338","CO-CON-76147|2019|Ordinary election|6339","CO-CON-76147|2015|Ordinary election|6340"],"shares":[[0.21321626936212784,0.14877358816020975],[0.2149055444632161,0.1370949162954999],[0.19447900466562984,0.15703732503888024]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":67.12351743292967,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-76233","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Dagua","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.2246654483287145,3.739715781600598,4.926534140017289],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76233|2023|Ordinary election|6341","CO-CON-76233|2019|Ordinary election|6342","CO-CON-76233|2015|Ordinary election|6343"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76233|2023|Ordinary election|6341","CO-CON-76233|2019|Ordinary election|6342","CO-CON-76233|2015|Ordinary election|6343"],"shares":[[0.18846902080999822,0.15622236632671108],[0.21529256084229906,0.1778954030262931],[0.25422891715026547,0.2049635757500926]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":82.25316291260431,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-76243","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"El Aguila","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.589532973480406,8.642840457836954,23.431899641577065],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76243|2023|Ordinary election|6344","CO-CON-76243|2019|Ordinary election|6345","CO-CON-76243|2015|Ordinary election|6346"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76243|2023|Ordinary election|6344","CO-CON-76243|2019|Ordinary election|6345","CO-CON-76243|2015|Ordinary election|6346"],"shares":[[0.26167566298990846,0.17578033325510442],[0.3165148329829479,0.23008642840457838],[0.4068100358422939,0.1724910394265233]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":49.551190572014825,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76246|2023|Ordinary election|6347","CO-CON-76246|2019|Ordinary election|6348","CO-CON-76246|2015|Ordinary election|6349"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76246|2023|Ordinary election|6347","CO-CON-76246|2019|Ordinary election|6348","CO-CON-76246|2015|Ordinary election|6349"],"shares":[[0.4719235364396655,0.18339307048984468],[0.3307903570338724,0.21605126640219713],[0.4261197153620762,0.20175805776475514]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76248|2023|Ordinary election|6350","CO-CON-76248|2019|Ordinary election|6351","CO-CON-76248|2015|Ordinary election|6352"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76248|2023|Ordinary election|6350","CO-CON-76248|2019|Ordinary election|6351","CO-CON-76248|2015|Ordinary election|6352"],"shares":[[0.17641754436589238,0.13122204588082528],[0.17535824572360434,0.12758058360223448],[0.20359860699084226,0.18309041661292405]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":78.24929161737847,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-76250","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"El Dovio","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[10.442854380197257,10.081269349845197,17.90065604498594],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76250|2023|Ordinary election|6353","CO-CON-76250|2019|Ordinary election|6354","CO-CON-76250|2015|Ordinary election|6355"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76250|2023|Ordinary election|6353","CO-CON-76250|2019|Ordinary election|6354","CO-CON-76250|2015|Ordinary election|6355"],"shares":[[0.3912202668729453,0.2867917230709727],[0.3264318885448916,0.22561919504643962],[0.4301780693533271,0.2511715089034677]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":44.59920481214746,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[17.404757300328757,0,39.12202668729453,0,3.0361632179462386,0,0,0,0,0,40.43705279443047],[22.561919504643964,0,32.64318885448916,8.107585139318886,16.311919504643964,0,0,14.144736842105264,0,0,6.230650154798762],[23.30521711965011,0,43.01780693533271,8.559825054670416,25.117150890346768,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":40.68524047243708,"volatility_previous":20.375386996904027,"volatility_mean":30.530313734670553,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-76275","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Florida","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.12412836333102106,1.07639698453408,1.2397609032543748],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76275|2023|Ordinary election|6356","CO-CON-76275|2019|Ordinary election|6357","CO-CON-76275|2015|Ordinary election|6358"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76275|2023|Ordinary election|6356","CO-CON-76275|2019|Ordinary election|6357","CO-CON-76275|2015|Ordinary election|6358"],"shares":[[0.11952831221934211,0.1182870285860319],[0.15796222895779902,0.1471982591124582],[0.17991292155560476,0.167515312523061]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":97.39313898157863,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-76306","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Ginebra","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.618691411798121,8.069137628246601,7.956448911222779],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76306|2023|Ordinary election|6359","CO-CON-76306|2019|Ordinary election|6360","CO-CON-76306|2015|Ordinary election|6361"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76306|2023|Ordinary election|6359","CO-CON-76306|2019|Ordinary election|6360","CO-CON-76306|2015|Ordinary election|6361"],"shares":[[0.33879367484139755,0.27260676072341633],[0.2919863203623255,0.21129494407985952],[0.33982412060301503,0.2602596314907873]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":64.06199486662435,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-76318","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Guacari","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[24.364714775832994,6.98282300224048,5.754908598510493],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76318|2023|Ordinary election|6362","CO-CON-76318|2019|Ordinary election|6363","CO-CON-76318|2015|Ordinary election|6364"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76318|2023|Ordinary election|6362","CO-CON-76318|2019|Ordinary election|6363","CO-CON-76318|2015|Ordinary election|6364"],"shares":[[0.416816886666279,0.17316973890794907],[0.24810626266936947,0.17827803264696468],[0.1953283683141503,0.13777928232904535]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":13.554166869885053,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76364|2023|Ordinary election|6365","CO-CON-76364|2019|Ordinary election|6366","CO-CON-76364|2015|Ordinary election|6367"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76364|2023|Ordinary election|6365","CO-CON-76364|2019|Ordinary election|6366","CO-CON-76364|2015|Ordinary election|6367"],"shares":[[0.1588623278186721,0.11471467094235115],[0.13909451173919546,0.10813892627486167],[0.18281418689271864,0.15446439281858532]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.69487541374698,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76377|2023|Ordinary election|6368","CO-CON-76377|2019|Ordinary election|6369","CO-CON-76377|2015|Ordinary election|6370"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76377|2023|Ordinary election|6368","CO-CON-76377|2019|Ordinary election|6369","CO-CON-76377|2015|Ordinary election|6370"],"shares":[[0.4136472578598618,0.12096433103059354],[0.28292813251402615,0.16631044616617685],[0.28300593878483327,0.15052535404294198]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-76400","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"La Union","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.574114676765664,2.495150177269384,13.356634627387344],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76400|2023|Ordinary election|6371","CO-CON-76400|2019|Ordinary election|6372","CO-CON-76400|2015|Ordinary election|6373"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76400|2023|Ordinary election|6371","CO-CON-76400|2019|Ordinary election|6372","CO-CON-76400|2015|Ordinary election|6373"],"shares":[[0.26868646601554713,0.17294531924789053],[0.21493076459963878,0.18997926282694494],[0.29334664835850705,0.15978030208463362]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":60.85661339010527,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-76403","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"La Victoria","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[13.150940463236438,3.4102601793326457,6.286586917790785],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76403|2023|Ordinary election|6374","CO-CON-76403|2019|Ordinary election|6375","CO-CON-76403|2015|Ordinary election|6376"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76403|2023|Ordinary election|6374","CO-CON-76403|2019|Ordinary election|6375","CO-CON-76403|2015|Ordinary election|6376"],"shares":[[0.3025027203482046,0.1709933157158402],[0.2916360429222402,0.25753344112891374],[0.2634258080936625,0.20055993891575466]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":52.28849488239632,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-76497","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Obando","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.017789072426936,9.636108074340154,7.169287696577246],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76497|2023|Ordinary election|6377","CO-CON-76497|2019|Ordinary election|6378","CO-CON-76497|2015|Ordinary election|6379"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76497|2023|Ordinary election|6377","CO-CON-76497|2019|Ordinary election|6378","CO-CON-76497|2015|Ordinary election|6379"],"shares":[[0.22204574332909782,0.19186785260482847],[0.2800249882867406,0.18366390754333906],[0.25948196114708605,0.18778908418131357]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":72.90782682292034,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76520|2023|Ordinary election|6380","CO-CON-76520|2019|Ordinary election|6381","CO-CON-76520|2015|Ordinary election|6382"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76520|2023|Ordinary election|6380","CO-CON-76520|2019|Ordinary election|6381","CO-CON-76520|2015|Ordinary election|6382"],"shares":[[0.22790931408893944,0.12501441681907305],[0.3867475065846594,0.12469630310591634],[0.3993235072468848,0.13694596820834573]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":16.704973345301678,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76563|2023|Ordinary election|6383","CO-CON-76563|2019|Ordinary election|6384","CO-CON-76563|2015|Ordinary election|6385"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76563|2023|Ordinary election|6383","CO-CON-76563|2019|Ordinary election|6384","CO-CON-76563|2015|Ordinary election|6385"],"shares":[[0.1669982002462821,0.13483944302358625],[0.18436785651485846,0.13144012660453666],[0.19485829117871248,0.1624974014274825]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.79516885908149,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76606|2023|Ordinary election|6386","CO-CON-76606|2019|Ordinary election|6387","CO-CON-76606|2015|Ordinary election|6388"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76606|2023|Ordinary election|6386","CO-CON-76606|2019|Ordinary election|6387","CO-CON-76606|2015|Ordinary election|6388"],"shares":[[0.1764199655765921,0.12539955741332678],[0.24866542520173807,0.21080074487895717],[0.23804755944931164,0.12015018773466833]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":73.11930691687112,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-76616","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Riofrio","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.310893512851898,1.0148042024832868,7.138344914718889],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76616|2023|Ordinary election|6389","CO-CON-76616|2019|Ordinary election|6390","CO-CON-76616|2015|Ordinary election|6391"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76616|2023|Ordinary election|6389","CO-CON-76616|2019|Ordinary election|6390","CO-CON-76616|2015|Ordinary election|6391"],"shares":[[0.25911872705018363,0.17600979192166463],[0.19066380133715377,0.1805157593123209],[0.25900189513581806,0.18761844598862917]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":69.97594070035993,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-76622","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Roldanillo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[23.73353449776591,7.8163276932718055,0.9673366834170842],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76622|2023|Ordinary election|6392","CO-CON-76622|2019|Ordinary election|6393","CO-CON-76622|2015|Ordinary election|6394"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76622|2023|Ordinary election|6392","CO-CON-76622|2019|Ordinary election|6393","CO-CON-76622|2015|Ordinary election|6394"],"shares":[[0.3869900771775082,0.14965473219984912],[0.3235344385575115,0.24537116162479347],[0.21206030150753769,0.20238693467336685]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":16.591236625086015,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76670|2023|Ordinary election|6395","CO-CON-76670|2019|Ordinary election|6396","CO-CON-76670|2015|Ordinary election|6397"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76670|2023|Ordinary election|6395","CO-CON-76670|2019|Ordinary election|6396","CO-CON-76670|2015|Ordinary election|6397"],"shares":[[0.3675769901220221,0.2538059267867519],[0.24551660303135484,0.23533495314127037],[0.33333333333333337,0.17443150305047145]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":56.39634200176318,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-76736","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Sevilla","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.0970591654074155,9.386260263453245,14.257931202139297],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76736|2023|Ordinary election|6398","CO-CON-76736|2019|Ordinary election|6399","CO-CON-76736|2015|Ordinary election|6400"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76736|2023|Ordinary election|6398","CO-CON-76736|2019|Ordinary election|6399","CO-CON-76736|2015|Ordinary election|6400"],"shares":[[0.3254097407880972,0.274439149134023],[0.270187252643393,0.17632465000886055],[0.3047283335359183,0.16214902151452534]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":63.500466507528245,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-76823","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Toro","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.24319805441556497,0.5422153369481038,10.220768601798856],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76823|2023|Ordinary election|6401","CO-CON-76823|2019|Ordinary election|6402","CO-CON-76823|2015|Ordinary election|6403"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76823|2023|Ordinary election|6401","CO-CON-76823|2019|Ordinary election|6402","CO-CON-76823|2015|Ordinary election|6403"],"shares":[[0.23742210062319502,0.23499012007903936],[0.2015491866769946,0.19612703330751355],[0.3090760425183974,0.20686835650040883]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":93.34669853043172,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-76828","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Trujillo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.967395331604298,14.793776241047173,1.5587789564840868],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76828|2023|Ordinary election|6404","CO-CON-76828|2019|Ordinary election|6405","CO-CON-76828|2015|Ordinary election|6406"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76828|2023|Ordinary election|6404","CO-CON-76828|2019|Ordinary election|6405","CO-CON-76828|2015|Ordinary election|6406"],"shares":[[0.29121896998888475,0.1715450166728418],[0.3098295875524821,0.16189182514201036],[0.18185754492314352,0.16626975535830266]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":41.127760165374305,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76834|2023|Ordinary election|6407","CO-CON-76834|2019|Ordinary election|6408","CO-CON-76834|2015|Ordinary election|6409"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76834|2023|Ordinary election|6407","CO-CON-76834|2019|Ordinary election|6408","CO-CON-76834|2015|Ordinary election|6409"],"shares":[[0.2798994443596039,0.12568280334089066],[0.22042326183837896,0.1430594278940089],[0.20337954062531619,0.12250834766771224]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":38.08687295485033,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-76845","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Ulloa","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.100775193798448,3.9017341040462448,17.16954022988506],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76845|2023|Ordinary election|6410","CO-CON-76845|2019|Ordinary election|6411","CO-CON-76845|2015|Ordinary election|6412"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76845|2023|Ordinary election|6410","CO-CON-76845|2019|Ordinary election|6411","CO-CON-76845|2015|Ordinary election|6412"],"shares":[[0.30690627202255105,0.2758985200845666],[0.25216763005780346,0.213150289017341],[0.3879310344827587,0.21623563218390804]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":76.26030314759275,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-76863","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Versalles","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[19.399483931503635,21.49004179985247,28.748500599760096],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76863|2023|Ordinary election|6413","CO-CON-76863|2019|Ordinary election|6414","CO-CON-76863|2015|Ordinary election|6415"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76863|2023|Ordinary election|6413","CO-CON-76863|2019|Ordinary election|6414","CO-CON-76863|2015|Ordinary election|6415"],"shares":[[0.43232465399953085,0.2383298146844945],[0.4816818293582493,0.2667814113597246],[0.4846061575369852,0.19712115153938423]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76869|2023|Ordinary election|6416","CO-CON-76869|2019|Ordinary election|6417","CO-CON-76869|2015|Ordinary election|6418"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76869|2023|Ordinary election|6416","CO-CON-76869|2019|Ordinary election|6417","CO-CON-76869|2015|Ordinary election|6418"],"shares":[[0.40398271071318304,0.2113306576103736],[0.4773351648351648,0.2647664835164835],[0.7535876793839692,0.11095554777738886]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76890|2023|Ordinary election|6419","CO-CON-76890|2019|Ordinary election|6420","CO-CON-76890|2015|Ordinary election|6421"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76890|2023|Ordinary election|6419","CO-CON-76890|2019|Ordinary election|6420","CO-CON-76890|2015|Ordinary election|6421"],"shares":[[0.45379782981153627,0.23655054254711594],[0.3758971984255615,0.25225746700625146],[0.3106090373280943,0.24538310412573672]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":13.018557447659518,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76892|2023|Ordinary election|6422","CO-CON-76892|2019|Ordinary election|6423","CO-CON-76892|2015|Ordinary election|6424"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76892|2023|Ordinary election|6422","CO-CON-76892|2019|Ordinary election|6423","CO-CON-76892|2015|Ordinary election|6424"],"shares":[[0.16572405032663923,0.1293703121219453],[0.1869896871397211,0.16262101422953618],[0.17910590637863366,0.1503876958422413]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":84.00266707524446,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-76895|2023|Ordinary election|6425","CO-CON-76895|2019|Ordinary election|6426","CO-CON-76895|2015|Ordinary election|6427"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-76895|2023|Ordinary election|6425","CO-CON-76895|2019|Ordinary election|6426","CO-CON-76895|2015|Ordinary election|6427"],"shares":[[0.1442678727023775,0.09356458238247375],[0.20603802345767877,0.11618749206080366],[0.23864632649482728,0.15930212169033842]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":67.34422295427316,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-81001|2023|Ordinary election|6428","CO-CON-81001|2019|Ordinary election|6429","CO-CON-81001|2015|Ordinary election|6430"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-81001|2023|Ordinary election|6428","CO-CON-81001|2019|Ordinary election|6429","CO-CON-81001|2015|Ordinary election|6430"],"shares":[[0.14700117600940807,0.1367829609303541],[0.17907379891035166,0.11963843486874691],[0.14653788834116704,0.1403473575604723]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":87.70970433100837,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-81065|2023|Ordinary election|6431","CO-CON-81065|2019|Ordinary election|6432","CO-CON-81065|2015|Ordinary election|6433"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-81065|2023|Ordinary election|6431","CO-CON-81065|2019|Ordinary election|6432","CO-CON-81065|2015|Ordinary election|6433"],"shares":[[0.3359616667677564,0.21283435433978287],[0.27141544614386853,0.16483813435659084],[0.26438569206842927,0.15802285482453174]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":41.75706764132141,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-81220|2023|Ordinary election|6434","CO-CON-81220|2019|Ordinary election|6435","CO-CON-81220|2015|Ordinary election|6436"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-81220|2023|Ordinary election|6434","CO-CON-81220|2019|Ordinary election|6435","CO-CON-81220|2015|Ordinary election|6436"],"shares":[[0.21524469467301863,0.16110870506712863],[0.3400157232704402,0.26572327044025157],[0.3673285198555957,0.3564981949458484]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":72.07381894821734,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-81300|2023|Ordinary election|6437","CO-CON-81300|2019|Ordinary election|6438","CO-CON-81300|2015|Ordinary election|6439"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-81300|2023|Ordinary election|6437","CO-CON-81300|2019|Ordinary election|6438","CO-CON-81300|2015|Ordinary election|6439"],"shares":[[0.2704221293761706,0.24780291024348078],[0.26253908692933087,0.2522826766729206],[0.33343653250773997,0.17291021671826626]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":83.64945693225782,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-81591","country":"Colombia","region":"Arauca","name":"Puerto Rondon","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.5915727993325,5.033277870216306,0.46468401486988853],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-81591|2023|Ordinary election|6440","CO-CON-81591|2019|Ordinary election|6441","CO-CON-81591|2015|Ordinary election|6442"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-81591|2023|Ordinary election|6440","CO-CON-81591|2019|Ordinary election|6441","CO-CON-81591|2015|Ordinary election|6442"],"shares":[[0.3429286608260325,0.27701293283270756],[0.27454242928452577,0.22420965058236272],[0.21607806691449813,0.21143122676579926]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":72.44302278924309,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-81736|2023|Ordinary election|6443","CO-CON-81736|2019|Ordinary election|6444","CO-CON-81736|2015|Ordinary election|6445"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-81736|2023|Ordinary election|6443","CO-CON-81736|2019|Ordinary election|6444","CO-CON-81736|2015|Ordinary election|6445"],"shares":[[0.238954573739888,0.16032132149120326],[0.14901246827761228,0.13168928610835265],[0.27512805161976983,0.13357280649238343]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":66.73378474363632,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-81794|2023|Ordinary election|6446","CO-CON-81794|2019|Ordinary election|6447","CO-CON-81794|2015|Ordinary election|6448"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-81794|2023|Ordinary election|6446","CO-CON-81794|2019|Ordinary election|6447","CO-CON-81794|2015|Ordinary election|6448"],"shares":[[0.26386951389634083,0.18075973816933147],[0.2461301105682695,0.14049884289020315],[0.2616750782597585,0.16463297770395452]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":54.370272102397045,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-85001|2023|Ordinary election|6449","CO-CON-85001|2019|Ordinary election|6450","CO-CON-85001|2015|Ordinary election|6451"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-85001|2023|Ordinary election|6449","CO-CON-85001|2019|Ordinary election|6450","CO-CON-85001|2015|Ordinary election|6451"],"shares":[[0.11534746514906281,0.11508640943977445],[0.14037828947368422,0.13640350877192983],[0.13321940708819377,0.11941451816628279]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":98.63522173585478,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-85010","country":"Colombia","region":"Casanare","name":"Aguazul","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.8624407072013796,2.6016731950287735,2.8551716817916457],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-85010|2023|Ordinary election|6452","CO-CON-85010|2019|Ordinary election|6453","CO-CON-85010|2015|Ordinary election|6454"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-85010|2023|Ordinary election|6452","CO-CON-85010|2019|Ordinary election|6453","CO-CON-85010|2015|Ordinary election|6454"],"shares":[[0.12141248622490536,0.11278807915289157],[0.13849799313313021,0.11248126118284249],[0.16520723876240515,0.13665552194448868]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":92.08258224495688,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-85015|2023|Ordinary election|6455","CO-CON-85015|2019|Ordinary election|6456","CO-CON-85015|2015|Ordinary election|6457"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-85015|2023|Ordinary election|6455","CO-CON-85015|2019|Ordinary election|6456","CO-CON-85015|2015|Ordinary election|6457"],"shares":[[0.747355320472931,0.12881144990665835],[0.6599622878692647,0.3400377121307354],[0.4796747967479675,0.30007390983000737]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-85125|2023|Ordinary election|6458","CO-CON-85125|2019|Ordinary election|6459","CO-CON-85125|2015|Ordinary election|6460"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-85125|2023|Ordinary election|6458","CO-CON-85125|2019|Ordinary election|6459","CO-CON-85125|2015|Ordinary election|6460"],"shares":[[0.22475938856387997,0.19626344593319495],[0.19495671810312384,0.16879939781708692],[0.2558613659531091,0.19184505606523955]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":84.32680367349548,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-85136|2023|Ordinary election|6461","CO-CON-85136|2019|Ordinary election|6462","CO-CON-85136|2015|Ordinary election|6463"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-85136|2023|Ordinary election|6461","CO-CON-85136|2019|Ordinary election|6462","CO-CON-85136|2015|Ordinary election|6463"],"shares":[[0.4254079254079254,0.3613053613053613],[0.3952180028129395,0.3909985935302391],[0.5285451197053407,0.4714548802946593]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":77.28180740629165,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-85139|2023|Ordinary election|6464","CO-CON-85139|2019|Ordinary election|6465","CO-CON-85139|2015|Ordinary election|6466"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-85139|2023|Ordinary election|6464","CO-CON-85139|2019|Ordinary election|6465","CO-CON-85139|2015|Ordinary election|6466"],"shares":[[0.1663869575641333,0.14972428674178853],[0.2109800938252821,0.15303664257639152],[0.2458006718924972,0.16041433370660696]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":82.04036415666846,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-85162|2023|Ordinary election|6467","CO-CON-85162|2019|Ordinary election|6468","CO-CON-85162|2015|Ordinary election|6469"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-85162|2023|Ordinary election|6467","CO-CON-85162|2019|Ordinary election|6468","CO-CON-85162|2015|Ordinary election|6469"],"shares":[[0.21905211035133224,0.17920301815609527],[0.18661232555267382,0.1588242558972459],[0.1778889316403745,0.16275490573297421]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":83.1203605977447,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-85225","country":"Colombia","region":"Casanare","name":"Nunchia","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.5913539967373573,4.971560985885821,4.382871536523933],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-85225|2023|Ordinary election|6470","CO-CON-85225|2019|Ordinary election|6471","CO-CON-85225|2015|Ordinary election|6472"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-85225|2023|Ordinary election|6470","CO-CON-85225|2019|Ordinary election|6471","CO-CON-85225|2015|Ordinary election|6472"],"shares":[[0.19637030995106033,0.19045676998368677],[0.20265430798398987,0.15293869812513167],[0.22720403022670027,0.18337531486146094]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":88.57716076269723,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-85230","country":"Colombia","region":"Casanare","name":"Orocue","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.507177033492823,0.7551413881748079,11.917286413930709],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-85230|2023|Ordinary election|6473","CO-CON-85230|2019|Ordinary election|6474","CO-CON-85230|2015|Ordinary election|6475"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-85230|2023|Ordinary election|6473","CO-CON-85230|2019|Ordinary election|6474","CO-CON-85230|2015|Ordinary election|6475"],"shares":[[0.23811802232854867,0.17304625199362042],[0.1597043701799486,0.15215295629820053],[0.2650099764193724,0.1458371122800653]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":73.38711361029397,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-85250","country":"Colombia","region":"Casanare","name":"Paz De Ariporo (Moreno)","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.5621522400045897,1.7969829917663311,1.6599040944301002],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-85250|2023|Ordinary election|6476","CO-CON-85250|2019|Ordinary election|6477","CO-CON-85250|2015|Ordinary election|6478"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-85250|2023|Ordinary election|6476","CO-CON-85250|2019|Ordinary election|6477","CO-CON-85250|2015|Ordinary election|6478"],"shares":[[0.15728790225434522,0.15166637985429932],[0.1617284692589699,0.14375863934130656],[0.1966064182958318,0.1800073773515308]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":94.78811674512168,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-85263","country":"Colombia","region":"Casanare","name":"Pore","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.791680314444807,2.89198606271777,3.5546475995914193],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-85263|2023|Ordinary election|6479","CO-CON-85263|2019|Ordinary election|6480","CO-CON-85263|2015|Ordinary election|6481"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-85263|2023|Ordinary election|6479","CO-CON-85263|2019|Ordinary election|6480","CO-CON-85263|2015|Ordinary election|6481"],"shares":[[0.2800524074680642,0.1621356043236161],[0.18205574912891986,0.15313588850174217],[0.1773237997957099,0.1417773237997957]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":58.50965616279321,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-85279","country":"Colombia","region":"Casanare","name":"Recetor","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[5.560704355885079,2.9721955896452563,22.78846153846154],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-85279|2023|Ordinary election|6482","CO-CON-85279|2019|Ordinary election|6483","CO-CON-85279|2015|Ordinary election|6484"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-85279|2023|Ordinary election|6482","CO-CON-85279|2019|Ordinary election|6483","CO-CON-85279|2015|Ordinary election|6484"],"shares":[[0.31881371640407785,0.2632066728452271],[0.21764141898370087,0.18791946308724833],[0.45,0.2221153846153846]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":67.46536277864611,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-85300|2023|Ordinary election|6485","CO-CON-85300|2019|Ordinary election|6486","CO-CON-85300|2015|Ordinary election|6487"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-85300|2023|Ordinary election|6485","CO-CON-85300|2019|Ordinary election|6486","CO-CON-85300|2015|Ordinary election|6487"],"shares":[[0.22719220549158547,0.20283436669619131],[0.5403377110694184,0.2284240150093809],[0.31637596899224807,0.2621124031007752]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":43.192415657802485,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-85315","country":"Colombia","region":"Casanare","name":"Sacama","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.7458193979933085,14.736012608353036,4.432624113475178],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-85315|2023|Ordinary election|6488","CO-CON-85315|2019|Ordinary election|6489","CO-CON-85315|2015|Ordinary election|6490"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-85315|2023|Ordinary election|6488","CO-CON-85315|2019|Ordinary election|6489","CO-CON-85315|2015|Ordinary election|6490"],"shares":[[0.34448160535117056,0.30702341137123745],[0.475177304964539,0.32781717888100864],[0.3200354609929078,0.275709219858156]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":64.44221083675293,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-85325|2023|Ordinary election|6491","CO-CON-85325|2019|Ordinary election|6492","CO-CON-85325|2015|Ordinary election|6493"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-85325|2023|Ordinary election|6491","CO-CON-85325|2019|Ordinary election|6492","CO-CON-85325|2015|Ordinary election|6493"],"shares":[[0.256686626746507,0.17824351297405192],[0.28505516549648946,0.19117352056168507],[0.23778574630210667,0.19878978036754819]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":60.4350208313149,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-85400","country":"Colombia","region":"Casanare","name":"Tamara","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[16.168516937090804,5.148342059336823,6.11727416798732],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-85400|2023|Ordinary election|6494","CO-CON-85400|2019|Ordinary election|6495","CO-CON-85400|2015|Ordinary election|6496"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-85400|2023|Ordinary election|6494","CO-CON-85400|2019|Ordinary election|6495","CO-CON-85400|2015|Ordinary election|6496"],"shares":[[0.3706233988044406,0.2089382294335326],[0.2591623036649215,0.20767888307155324],[0.2167987321711569,0.15562599049128367]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":40.7132990157287,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-85410|2023|Ordinary election|6497","CO-CON-85410|2019|Ordinary election|6498","CO-CON-85410|2015|Ordinary election|6499"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-85410|2023|Ordinary election|6497","CO-CON-85410|2019|Ordinary election|6498","CO-CON-85410|2015|Ordinary election|6499"],"shares":[[0.15770434782608697,0.15596521739130434],[0.17147653689343673,0.17027740027180432],[0.24456072707243184,0.16808959882493343]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":95.47483396394543,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-85430|2023|Ordinary election|6500","CO-CON-85430|2019|Ordinary election|6501","CO-CON-85430|2015|Ordinary election|6502"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-85430|2023|Ordinary election|6500","CO-CON-85430|2019|Ordinary election|6501","CO-CON-85430|2015|Ordinary election|6502"],"shares":[[0.23301793531987008,0.1609942098573648],[0.16985376827896512,0.14482564679415075],[0.1957598266790467,0.16140513772825751]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":72.9209296909868,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-85440|2023|Ordinary election|6503","CO-CON-85440|2019|Ordinary election|6504","CO-CON-85440|2015|Ordinary election|6505"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-85440|2023|Ordinary election|6503","CO-CON-85440|2019|Ordinary election|6504","CO-CON-85440|2015|Ordinary election|6505"],"shares":[[0.1613546952505844,0.13923256742117565],[0.1992579799142839,0.14770037740676772],[0.22456718878812862,0.13421269579554823]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":81.11199662542093,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-86001","country":"Colombia","region":"Putumayo","name":"Mocoa","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.2821597833446177,0.0,13.440228769851402],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-86001|2023|Ordinary election|6506","CO-CON-86001|2019|Ordinary election|6507","CO-CON-86001|2015|Ordinary election|6508"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-86001|2023|Ordinary election|6506","CO-CON-86001|2019|Ordinary election|6507","CO-CON-86001|2015|Ordinary election|6508"],"shares":[[0.15648273527420448,0.14366113744075829],[0.17225460480298438,0.17225460480298438],[0.33523974876168106,0.20083746106316702]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":89.43340626504045,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-86219|2023|Ordinary election|6509","CO-CON-86219|2019|Ordinary election|6510","CO-CON-86219|2015|Ordinary election|6511"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-86219|2023|Ordinary election|6509","CO-CON-86219|2019|Ordinary election|6510","CO-CON-86219|2015|Ordinary election|6511"],"shares":[[0.1922962962962963,0.1428148148148148],[0.22596448254745866,0.19350887936313532],[0.24045167718365992,0.1893058784456991]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":77.72992514100902,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-86320|2023|Ordinary election|6512","CO-CON-86320|2019|Ordinary election|6513","CO-CON-86320|2015|Ordinary election|6514"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-86320|2023|Ordinary election|6512","CO-CON-86320|2019|Ordinary election|6513","CO-CON-86320|2015|Ordinary election|6514"],"shares":[[0.16153424657534246,0.1602191780821918],[0.18626959247648903,0.14050156739811911],[0.15731130410223823,0.13690602273529617]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":91.72001162195221,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-86568|2023|Ordinary election|6515","CO-CON-86568|2019|Ordinary election|6516","CO-CON-86568|2015|Ordinary election|6517"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-86568|2023|Ordinary election|6515","CO-CON-86568|2019|Ordinary election|6516","CO-CON-86568|2015|Ordinary election|6517"],"shares":[[0.2565537555228277,0.11958762886597939],[0.15938458678070094,0.14971646369805708],[0.20651292154363193,0.14764167342681656]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":54.516381134708155,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-86569","country":"Colombia","region":"Putumayo","name":"Puerto Caicedo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.32472324723247,9.231051569095246,6.086799927966865],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-86569|2023|Ordinary election|6518","CO-CON-86569|2019|Ordinary election|6519","CO-CON-86569|2015|Ordinary election|6520"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-86569|2023|Ordinary election|6518","CO-CON-86569|2019|Ordinary election|6519","CO-CON-86569|2015|Ordinary election|6520"],"shares":[[0.2603690036900369,0.2171217712177122],[0.2984033767663792,0.20609286107542668],[0.2784080677111471,0.2175400684314785]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":70.13585294067629,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-86571","country":"Colombia","region":"Putumayo","name":"Puerto Guzman","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.4721878862793574,4.8008025222126705,2.687690378068446],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-86571|2023|Ordinary election|6521","CO-CON-86571|2019|Ordinary election|6522","CO-CON-86571|2015|Ordinary election|6523"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-86571|2023|Ordinary election|6521","CO-CON-86571|2019|Ordinary election|6522","CO-CON-86571|2015|Ordinary election|6523"],"shares":[[0.19365471775854964,0.16893283889575605],[0.2709945543135569,0.22298652909143019],[0.2732485217702921,0.2463716179896076]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":84.0383873688087,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-86573","country":"Colombia","region":"Putumayo","name":"Puerto Leguizamo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[11.316588462600055,6.6292310092029325,5.514316012725345],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-86573|2023|Ordinary election|6524","CO-CON-86573|2019|Ordinary election|6525","CO-CON-86573|2015|Ordinary election|6526"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-86573|2023|Ordinary election|6524","CO-CON-86573|2019|Ordinary election|6525","CO-CON-86573|2015|Ordinary election|6526"],"shares":[[0.30444383107921613,0.19127794645321558],[0.2214943066604274,0.15520199656839806],[0.19441498762813716,0.1392718275008837]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":53.34923009203276,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-86749|2023|Ordinary election|6527","CO-CON-86749|2019|Ordinary election|6528","CO-CON-86749|2015|Ordinary election|6529"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-86749|2023|Ordinary election|6527","CO-CON-86749|2019|Ordinary election|6528","CO-CON-86749|2015|Ordinary election|6529"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.14309576837416482,0.1252783964365256],[0.3147896879240163,0.21438263229308008]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-86755|2023|Ordinary election|6530","CO-CON-86755|2019|Ordinary election|6531","CO-CON-86755|2015|Ordinary election|6532"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-86755|2023|Ordinary election|6530","CO-CON-86755|2019|Ordinary election|6531","CO-CON-86755|2015|Ordinary election|6532"],"shares":[[0.16632443531827515,0.1419771193898504],[0.21997690531177827,0.1983256351039261],[0.27882909520993493,0.2619751626256653]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":88.60541806108127,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-86757|2023|Ordinary election|6533","CO-CON-86757|2019|Ordinary election|6534","CO-CON-86757|2015|Ordinary election|6535"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-86757|2023|Ordinary election|6533","CO-CON-86757|2019|Ordinary election|6534","CO-CON-86757|2015|Ordinary election|6535"],"shares":[[0.19410977242302543,0.17081659973226238],[0.1814917577933736,0.16468092051574995],[0.26484641638225254,0.21774744027303755]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":88.13547379566678,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-86865|2023|Ordinary election|6536","CO-CON-86865|2019|Ordinary election|6537","CO-CON-86865|2015|Ordinary election|6538"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-86865|2023|Ordinary election|6536","CO-CON-86865|2019|Ordinary election|6537","CO-CON-86865|2015|Ordinary election|6538"],"shares":[[0.16758801280186209,0.12409077684026767],[0.19937597503900156,0.14157566302652105],[0.32375843571552176,0.27599930783872645]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.89282601580983,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-86885","country":"Colombia","region":"Putumayo","name":"Villagarzon","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[null,5.3237410071942435,5.473472128945598],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-86885|2023|Ordinary election|6539","CO-CON-86885|2019|Ordinary election|6540","CO-CON-86885|2015|Ordinary election|6541"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-86885|2023|Ordinary election|6539","CO-CON-86885|2019|Ordinary election|6540","CO-CON-86885|2015|Ordinary election|6541"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.2473860911270983,0.19414868105515587],[0.241773002014775,0.18703828072531903]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-88564|2023|Ordinary election|6542","CO-CON-88564|2019|Ordinary election|6543","CO-CON-88564|2015|Ordinary election|6544"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-88564|2023|Ordinary election|6542","CO-CON-88564|2019|Ordinary election|6543","CO-CON-88564|2015|Ordinary election|6544"],"shares":[[0.34369449378330375,0.2966252220248668],[0.5827686350435625,0.24362697644401418],[0.39388646288209606,0.2244541484716157]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":26.536353962012672,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-91001|2023|Ordinary election|6545","CO-CON-91001|2019|Ordinary election|6546","CO-CON-91001|2015|Ordinary election|6547"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-91001|2023|Ordinary election|6545","CO-CON-91001|2019|Ordinary election|6546","CO-CON-91001|2015|Ordinary election|6547"],"shares":[[0.17422478815532172,0.11127665518204674],[0.15817494542937763,0.11952297290102752],[0.1859097455592895,0.12890062409985598]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":72.46730815579332,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-91540","country":"Colombia","region":"Amazonas","name":"Puerto Nariño","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.0660980810234513,1.6214530714063002,3.1667839549612964],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-91540|2023|Ordinary election|6548","CO-CON-91540|2019|Ordinary election|6549","CO-CON-91540|2015|Ordinary election|6550"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-91540|2023|Ordinary election|6548","CO-CON-91540|2019|Ordinary election|6549","CO-CON-91540|2015|Ordinary election|6550"],"shares":[[0.22784038988729818,0.21717940907706368],[0.2014343623323979,0.18521983161833488],[0.18859957776213934,0.1569317382125264]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":92.78613417233956,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-94001|2023|Ordinary election|6551","CO-CON-94001|2019|Ordinary election|6552","CO-CON-94001|2015|Ordinary election|6553"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-94001|2023|Ordinary election|6551","CO-CON-94001|2019|Ordinary election|6552","CO-CON-94001|2015|Ordinary election|6553"],"shares":[[0.18985647356287647,0.11623410426117349],[0.23209790816769377,0.21890460897491537],[0.23218940052128584,0.19309296264118156]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":73.97947243656714,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-94343","country":"Colombia","region":"Guainia","name":"Barrancominas","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":1,"vote_cycles":1,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023],"gaps":[4.109149277688605,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. MISSING ordinary-cycle return(s): [2015, 2019]; no zero or substitute election inserted. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-94343|2023|Ordinary election|6554"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-94343|2023|Ordinary election|6554"],"shares":[[0.24590690208667737,0.20481540930979134],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":1},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-95001","country":"Colombia","region":"Guaviare","name":"San Jose Del Guaviare","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.090070194810316,2.1649668992664157,0.8924989971921384],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-95001|2023|Ordinary election|6555","CO-CON-95001|2019|Ordinary election|6556","CO-CON-95001|2015|Ordinary election|6557"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-95001|2023|Ordinary election|6555","CO-CON-95001|2019|Ordinary election|6556","CO-CON-95001|2015|Ordinary election|6557"],"shares":[[0.1551384178562978,0.13423771590819464],[0.15704956163893363,0.13539989264626948],[0.1322202166064982,0.1232952266345768]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":90.03608956807336,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-95015","country":"Colombia","region":"Guaviare","name":"Calamar","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.215250965250966,11.577028258887875,4.711505633321952],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-95015|2023|Ordinary election|6558","CO-CON-95015|2019|Ordinary election|6559","CO-CON-95015|2015|Ordinary election|6560"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-95015|2023|Ordinary election|6558","CO-CON-95015|2019|Ordinary election|6559","CO-CON-95015|2015|Ordinary election|6560"],"shares":[[0.2668918918918919,0.19473938223938222],[0.2996049832877545,0.18383470069887572],[0.2376237623762376,0.1905087060430181]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":58.632951899254316,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-95025","country":"Colombia","region":"Guaviare","name":"El Retorno","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.6877470355731212,3.995793901156677,20.781959766385462],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-95025|2023|Ordinary election|6561","CO-CON-95025|2019|Ordinary election|6562","CO-CON-95025|2015|Ordinary election|6563"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-95025|2023|Ordinary election|6561","CO-CON-95025|2019|Ordinary election|6562","CO-CON-95025|2015|Ordinary election|6563"],"shares":[[0.21470355731225296,0.18782608695652175],[0.24605678233438485,0.20609884332281808],[0.4085009733939,0.2006813757300454]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.55208815835289,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-95200","country":"Colombia","region":"Guaviare","name":"Miraflores","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.7085308056872,7.863974495217853,1.0342950462710938],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-95200|2023|Ordinary election|6564","CO-CON-95200|2019|Ordinary election|6565","CO-CON-95200|2015|Ordinary election|6566"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-95200|2023|Ordinary election|6564","CO-CON-95200|2019|Ordinary election|6565","CO-CON-95200|2015|Ordinary election|6566"],"shares":[[0.3809241706161137,0.2938388625592417],[0.37725823591923485,0.29861849096705634],[0.26565051714752314,0.2553075666848122]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":61.56129831697608,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-97001","country":"Colombia","region":"Vaupes","name":"Mitu","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.957875457875456,2.8163004053765732,7.823212536728697],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-97001|2023|Ordinary election|6567","CO-CON-97001|2019|Ordinary election|6568","CO-CON-97001|2015|Ordinary election|6569"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-97001|2023|Ordinary election|6567","CO-CON-97001|2019|Ordinary election|6568","CO-CON-97001|2015|Ordinary election|6569"],"shares":[[0.3194826007326007,0.18990384615384617],[0.1806059312993386,0.15244292724557287],[0.26101860920666015,0.18278648383937315]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":52.99031674994442,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-97161|2023|Ordinary election|6570","CO-CON-97161|2019|Ordinary election|6571","CO-CON-97161|2015|Ordinary election|6572"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-97161|2023|Ordinary election|6570","CO-CON-97161|2019|Ordinary election|6571","CO-CON-97161|2015|Ordinary election|6572"],"shares":[[0.43449575871819035,0.27898209236569277],[0.2747747747747748,0.24594594594594593],[0.31651829871414444,0.21266073194856577]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":43.828697431647456,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-97666","country":"Colombia","region":"Vaupes","name":"Taraira","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.0060362173038229,0.6204756980351611,4.491725768321512],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-97666|2023|Ordinary election|6573","CO-CON-97666|2019|Ordinary election|6574","CO-CON-97666|2015|Ordinary election|6575"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-97666|2023|Ordinary election|6573","CO-CON-97666|2019|Ordinary election|6574","CO-CON-97666|2015|Ordinary election|6575"],"shares":[[0.26961770623742454,0.25955734406438635],[0.250258531540848,0.24405377456049637],[0.2872340425531915,0.24231678486997638]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":93.80531491687503,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-99001|2023|Ordinary election|6576","CO-CON-99001|2019|Ordinary election|6577","CO-CON-99001|2015|Ordinary election|6578"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-99001|2023|Ordinary election|6576","CO-CON-99001|2019|Ordinary election|6577","CO-CON-99001|2015|Ordinary election|6578"],"shares":[[0.22038765254845658,0.1585478412470516],[0.19351192494630948,0.15541991635582683],[0.16427624442569602,0.15282632276726527]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":75.16175923808457,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-99524","country":"Colombia","region":"Vichada","name":"La Primavera","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.2519420533277348,7.163908410791205,0.553955240416574],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-99524|2023|Ordinary election|6579","CO-CON-99524|2019|Ordinary election|6580","CO-CON-99524|2015|Ordinary election|6581"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-99524|2023|Ordinary election|6579","CO-CON-99524|2019|Ordinary election|6580","CO-CON-99524|2015|Ordinary election|6581"],"shares":[[0.13205962628595422,0.12954020575267688],[0.2650192700068012,0.19338018589888914],[0.19100376689563484,0.18546421449146908]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":88.2213336036217,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-99624","country":"Colombia","region":"Vichada","name":"Santa Rosalia","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.865101472343813,2.04865556978233,7.429085997298511],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-99624|2023|Ordinary election|6582","CO-CON-99624|2019|Ordinary election|6583","CO-CON-99624|2015|Ordinary election|6584"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-99624|2023|Ordinary election|6582","CO-CON-99624|2019|Ordinary election|6583","CO-CON-99624|2015|Ordinary election|6584"],"shares":[[0.230799840827696,0.20214882610425786],[0.20742637644046094,0.18693982074263765],[0.23998199009455198,0.1656911301215669]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":84.61716922964581,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-99773","country":"Colombia","region":"Vichada","name":"Cumaribo","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.8674033149171283,4.512550531164802,2.2593210907067327],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-99773|2023|Ordinary election|6585","CO-CON-99773|2019|Ordinary election|6586","CO-CON-99773|2015|Ordinary election|6587"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-99773|2023|Ordinary election|6585","CO-CON-99773|2019|Ordinary election|6586","CO-CON-99773|2015|Ordinary election|6587"],"shares":[[0.17817679558011051,0.13950276243093923],[0.1858606750023503,0.14073516969070227],[0.1795214245965498,0.15692821368948245]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2874","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":80.49930371314804,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00091","country":"Colombia","region":"Amazonas","name":"Amazonas","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.0369114386331049,20.473532523439495,10.438589106827173],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00091|2023|Ordinary election|6588","CO-GOB-00091|2019|Ordinary election|6589","CO-GOB-00091|2015|Ordinary election|6590"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00091|2023|Ordinary election|6588","CO-GOB-00091|2019|Ordinary election|6589","CO-GOB-00091|2015|Ordinary election|6590"],"shares":[[0.4647515325420634,0.4543824181557323],[0.4378169348071942,0.23308160957279925],[0.3604259617812947,0.256040070713023]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"comparison_ci":60.95967234552786,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00005|2023|Ordinary election|6591","CO-GOB-00005|2019|Ordinary election|6592","CO-GOB-00005|2015|Ordinary election|6593"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00005|2023|Ordinary election|6591","CO-GOB-00005|2019|Ordinary election|6592","CO-GOB-00005|2015|Ordinary election|6593"],"shares":[[0.4145195397821339,0.2605737593733914],[0.41788577013824074,0.33185585470102585],[0.43312230186925915,0.3240664143874229]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"comparison_ci":35.458984187703216,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[1.4216600119645515,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,98.57833998803547],[4.501335939784568,0,0,0,33.18558547010259,0,3.645092674563466,0,0,0,58.66798591554937],[0,0,0,0,32.40664143874229,0,0,0,2.031959717076528,0,65.56139884418118]],"volatility_latest":39.91035407248608,"volatility_previous":8.925372645708334,"volatility_mean":24.417863359097208,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Andrés Julián Rendón Cardona (CD); Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party code from secondary directory; coalition majority not inferred","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/antioquia","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00081","country":"Colombia","region":"Arauca","name":"Arauca","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.42075464381277783,11.440258146616369,14.537837692679524],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00081|2023|Ordinary election|6594","CO-GOB-00081|2019|Ordinary election|6595","CO-GOB-00081|2015|Ordinary election|6596"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00081|2023|Ordinary election|6594","CO-GOB-00081|2019|Ordinary election|6595","CO-GOB-00081|2015|Ordinary election|6596"],"shares":[[0.399309729708768,0.39510218327064023],[0.42269690496750445,0.30829432350134073],[0.4999301788495623,0.3545518019227671]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"comparison_ci":74.30843000229736,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,39.510218327064024,0,0,0,0,0,60.48978167293598],[0,30.829432350134073,0,0,21.045312002908695,0,0,0,0,0,48.12525564695723],[0,35.45518019227671,0,0,10.26156077125517,0,0,0,0,0,54.283259036468124]],"volatility_latest":30.829432350134077,"volatility_previous":10.783751231653527,"volatility_mean":20.8065917908938,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Renson Jesús Martínez Prada (PLC); Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party code from secondary directory; coalition majority not inferred","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/arauca","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00008","country":"Colombia","region":"Atlantico","name":"Atlantico","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.621335089003885,53.04121794892164,0.814292789755406],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00008|2023|Ordinary election|6597","CO-GOB-00008|2019|Ordinary election|6598","CO-GOB-00008|2015|Ordinary election|6599"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00008|2023|Ordinary election|6597","CO-GOB-00008|2019|Ordinary election|6598","CO-GOB-00008|2015|Ordinary election|6599"],"shares":[[0.5527008817322069,0.34648753084216805],[0.733755331916079,0.2033431524268626],[0.4178445050453214,0.40970157714776734]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,55.27008817322069,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,44.72991182677931],[0,0,0,0,0,0,1.7579037347510114,0,0,0,98.24209626524899],[0,41.78445050453214,0,0,0.14261759984723804,0,0,0,0,0,58.07293189562062]],"volatility_latest":55.27008817322069,"volatility_previous":41.92706810437938,"volatility_mean":48.598578138800036,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Eduardo Ignacio Verano de la Rosa (PLC); Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party code from secondary directory; coalition majority not inferred","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/atlantico","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00013","country":"Colombia","region":"Bolivar","name":"Bolivar","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[74.73837627944933,34.39664548629,19.092419773428297],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00013|2023|Ordinary election|6600","CO-GOB-00013|2019|Ordinary election|6601","CO-GOB-00013|2015|Ordinary election|6602"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00013|2023|Ordinary election|6600","CO-GOB-00013|2019|Ordinary election|6601","CO-GOB-00013|2015|Ordinary election|6602"],"shares":[[0.8065824634766885,0.05919870068219518],[0.6197279625495322,0.2757615076866322],[0.5886168666297389,0.3976926688954559]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,27.57615076866322,0,0,0,0,0,0,72.42384923133677],[0,58.86168666297389,39.76926688954559,0,0,0,0,0,1.25910659104904,0,0.1099398564314816]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":99.89006014356852,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Yamil Hernando Arana Padauí (PC); Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party code from secondary directory; coalition majority not inferred","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/bolivar","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00015","country":"Colombia","region":"Boyaca","name":"Boyaca","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[7.283569390996874,36.21895369405607,12.142192810187474],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00015|2023|Ordinary election|6603","CO-GOB-00015|2019|Ordinary election|6604","CO-GOB-00015|2015|Ordinary election|6605"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00015|2023|Ordinary election|6603","CO-GOB-00015|2019|Ordinary election|6604","CO-GOB-00015|2015|Ordinary election|6605"],"shares":[[0.4470307118839408,0.37419501797397203],[0.6389186394953436,0.27672910255478284],[0.4156163135991786,0.29419438549730387]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"comparison_ci":17.74976488083153,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,5.637968773978854,0,0,94.36203122602114],[0,0,0,0,8.569615156731022,0,0,17.104067147581567,0,0,74.32631769568742]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":20.03571353033373,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Carlos Andrés Amaya Rodríguez (AV); Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party code from secondary directory; coalition majority not inferred","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/boyaca","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00017","country":"Colombia","region":"Caldas","name":"Caldas","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.180689599935924,19.44294606928247,30.161711724099995],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00017|2023|Ordinary election|6606","CO-GOB-00017|2019|Ordinary election|6607","CO-GOB-00017|2015|Ordinary election|6608"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00017|2023|Ordinary election|6606","CO-GOB-00017|2019|Ordinary election|6607","CO-GOB-00017|2015|Ordinary election|6608"],"shares":[[0.5043024908894317,0.4724955948900725],[0.5634648786855534,0.36903541799272865],[0.5460850911691097,0.2444679739281098]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"comparison_ci":46.21265623421852,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.6207200352408794,0,99.3792799647591],[6.7499703321717925,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,93.2500296678282],[0,0,0,0,0,3.4977035835098045,0,0,0,0,96.5022964164902]],"volatility_latest":6.749970332171789,"volatility_previous":6.749970332171796,"volatility_mean":6.7499703321717925,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Henry Gutiérrez Ángel (PU); Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party code from secondary directory; coalition majority not inferred","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/caldas","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00018","country":"Colombia","region":"Caqueta","name":"Caqueta","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.431827201770318,19.507848719568905,3.5972929499581205],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00018|2023|Ordinary election|6609","CO-GOB-00018|2019|Ordinary election|6610","CO-GOB-00018|2015|Ordinary election|6611"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00018|2023|Ordinary election|6609","CO-GOB-00018|2019|Ordinary election|6610","CO-GOB-00018|2015|Ordinary election|6611"],"shares":[[0.43589820683351577,0.3715799348158126],[0.4705113914704191,0.27543290427473005],[0.31226696909722995,0.27629403959764876]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"comparison_ci":49.644098840356634,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,37.15799348158126,0,0,0,62.84200651841874],[47.05113914704191,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,52.948860852958084],[27.629403959764876,31.226696909722996,13.780604416375725,0,0,27.363294714136405,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":47.05113914704191,"volatility_previous":72.37059604023513,"volatility_mean":59.71086759363852,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Luis Francisco Ruiz Aguilar (Independiente); Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party code from secondary directory; coalition majority not inferred","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/caqueta","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00085","country":"Colombia","region":"Casanare","name":"Casanare","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[18.829833493377784,1.2186261878699227,18.24252959556397],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00085|2023|Ordinary election|6612","CO-GOB-00085|2019|Ordinary election|6613","CO-GOB-00085|2015|Ordinary election|6614"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00085|2023|Ordinary election|6612","CO-GOB-00085|2019|Ordinary election|6613","CO-GOB-00085|2015|Ordinary election|6614"],"shares":[[0.5797066657003606,0.39140833076658277],[0.42695992482878203,0.41477366295008283],[0.4760044888439027,0.293579192888263]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"comparison_ci":32.56129544027979,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,39.140833076658275,0,0,0,0,0,60.85916692334173],[0.44414952872683594,0,6.298495606939776,0,42.695992482878204,7.012912787825362,0,0.580736406699538,0,0,42.96771318693028],[0,0,0,0,47.60044888439027,0,0,0,0,0.8686132993002684,51.53093781630946]],"volatility_latest":17.891453736411446,"volatility_previous":14.336294330191512,"volatility_mean":16.113874033301478,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Cesar Augusto Ortiz Zorro (AV); Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party code from secondary directory; coalition majority not inferred","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/casanare","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00019","country":"Colombia","region":"Cauca","name":"Cauca","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.702565662711692,7.013952031986705,10.046763442254296],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00019|2023|Ordinary election|6615","CO-GOB-00019|2019|Ordinary election|6616","CO-GOB-00019|2015|Ordinary election|6617"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00019|2023|Ordinary election|6615","CO-GOB-00019|2019|Ordinary election|6616","CO-GOB-00019|2015|Ordinary election|6617"],"shares":[[0.35751140857925157,0.27048575195213465],[0.47460593688968644,0.4044664165698194],[0.459855417808556,0.359387783386013]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"comparison_ci":58.347993242757724,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,4.241354832167123,0,0,95.7586451678329],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.4871328584303312,98.51286714156967],[0,0,0,0,5.548129238775209,0,0,0,0,0,94.45187076122478]],"volatility_latest":4.241354832167115,"volatility_previous":5.548129238775214,"volatility_mean":4.894742035471165,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Jorge Octavio Guzmán Gutiérrez (COR); Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party code from secondary directory; coalition majority not inferred","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/cauca","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00020","country":"Colombia","region":"Cesar","name":"Cesar","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[9.526959050929847,39.03006534822251,14.665721245989566],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00020|2023|Ordinary election|6618","CO-GOB-00020|2019|Ordinary election|6619","CO-GOB-00020|2015|Ordinary election|6620"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00020|2023|Ordinary election|6618","CO-GOB-00020|2019|Ordinary election|6619","CO-GOB-00020|2015|Ordinary election|6620"],"shares":[[0.4619206518382756,0.3666510613289771],[0.6024865041714379,0.2121858506892128],[0.5641283057546633,0.4174710932947676]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"comparison_ci":5.541164201881921,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,36.66510613289771,0,0.5089996314484078,0,0,0,62.825894235653884],[0,0,0,0,21.218585068921282,0,0,0,4.106864576786314,0,74.6745503542924],[0,0,56.41283057546633,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,43.58716942453366]],"volatility_latest":15.955520695424838,"volatility_previous":56.41283057546634,"volatility_mean":36.184175635445584,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Elvia Milena Sanjuan Dávila (PU); Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party code from secondary directory; coalition majority not inferred","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/cesar","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00027","country":"Colombia","region":"Choco","name":"Choco","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[3.9497450328812747,5.534985573902489,12.612696082274375],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00027|2023|Ordinary election|6621","CO-GOB-00027|2019|Ordinary election|6622","CO-GOB-00027|2015|Ordinary election|6623"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00027|2023|Ordinary election|6621","CO-GOB-00027|2019|Ordinary election|6622","CO-GOB-00027|2015|Ordinary election|6623"],"shares":[[0.5106776836411899,0.47118023331237713],[0.44869128151324583,0.39334142577422093],[0.41700935778378034,0.29088239696103657]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"comparison_ci":73.54193849936526,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,51.06776836411899,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,48.93223163588101],null,[0,0,0,0,0.9906564702696153,0,27.59584066822986,0,0.5551952448489427,0,70.85830761665157]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Nubia Carolina Córdoba Curi (PLC); Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party code from secondary directory; coalition majority not inferred","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/choco","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00023","country":"Colombia","region":"Cordoba","name":"Cordoba","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[31.38147712942795,19.275888112134176,7.146545335261024],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00023|2023|Ordinary election|6624","CO-GOB-00023|2019|Ordinary election|6625","CO-GOB-00023|2015|Ordinary election|6626"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00023|2023|Ordinary election|6624","CO-GOB-00023|2019|Ordinary election|6625","CO-GOB-00023|2015|Ordinary election|6626"],"shares":[[0.6399783618021323,0.32616359050785276],[0.5676327440022821,0.3748738628809404],[0.5246008941914007,0.4531354408387904]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,56.76327440022821,0,0,0,0,0.4638327336976806,0,0,0,42.77289286607411],[0,0,0,45.313544083879044,0,2.226366496980889,0,0,0,0,52.46008941914007]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":57.22710713392589,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Erasmo Elías Zuleta Bechara (PU); Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party code from secondary directory; coalition majority not inferred","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/cordoba","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00025","country":"Colombia","region":"Cundinamarca","name":"Cundinamarca","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[53.50018135654697,59.85892175593867,19.78475702007575],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00025|2023|Ordinary election|6627","CO-GOB-00025|2019|Ordinary election|6628","CO-GOB-00025|2015|Ordinary election|6629"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00025|2023|Ordinary election|6627","CO-GOB-00025|2019|Ordinary election|6628","CO-GOB-00025|2015|Ordinary election|6629"],"shares":[[0.6578835690968444,0.12288175553137469],[0.7097202149508038,0.11113099739141719],[0.5849984441559277,0.3871508739551702]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,2.7850681888902002,0,97.2149318111098]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Jorge Emilio Rey Ángel (COR); Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party code from secondary directory; coalition majority not inferred","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/cundinamarca","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00094","country":"Colombia","region":"Guainia","name":"Guainia","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.738869479530589,15.998134328358205,7.047565830830479],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00094|2023|Ordinary election|6630","CO-GOB-00094|2019|Ordinary election|6631","CO-GOB-00094|2015|Ordinary election|6632"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00094|2023|Ordinary election|6630","CO-GOB-00094|2019|Ordinary election|6631","CO-GOB-00094|2015|Ordinary election|6632"],"shares":[[0.3405446564543581,0.2931559616590522],[0.5190194859038142,0.3590381426202322],[0.38087588181881676,0.310400223510512]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"comparison_ci":58.26240715345568,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[1.9019485903814262,0,51.90194859038142,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,46.19610281923715],[0,0,0,0,0,0,31.0400223510512,0.30732695397080395,0,2.221135712788992,66.43151498218901]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":53.80389718076285,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Arnulfo Rivera Naranjo (PLC); Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party code from secondary directory; coalition majority not inferred","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/guainia","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00095","country":"Colombia","region":"Guaviare","name":"Guaviare","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[39.99451001921493,47.61785425890346,13.439537458481983],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00095|2023|Ordinary election|6633","CO-GOB-00095|2019|Ordinary election|6634","CO-GOB-00095|2015|Ordinary election|6635"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00095|2023|Ordinary election|6633","CO-GOB-00095|2019|Ordinary election|6634","CO-GOB-00095|2015|Ordinary election|6635"],"shares":[[0.6224113215603745,0.2224662213682252],[0.7174560744020272,0.24127753181299252],[0.3989420592938861,0.2645466847090663]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,22.24662213682252,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,77.75337786317748],[0,0,24.12775318129925,0,0,0,0,1.5704619497118035,2.5561774287862336,0,71.74560744020272],[0,0,0,0,0,0.32291794808709556,0,2.1097305941690245,0,39.89420592938861,57.67314552835526]],"volatility_latest":6.0077704229747635,"volatility_previous":40.75639252193293,"volatility_mean":23.382081472453848,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Yeison Ferney Rojas Martínez (PC); Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party code from secondary directory; coalition majority not inferred","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/guaviare","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00041","country":"Colombia","region":"Huila","name":"Huila","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[12.249587288262113,17.30348502986206,17.615647714665823],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00041|2023|Ordinary election|6636","CO-GOB-00041|2019|Ordinary election|6637","CO-GOB-00041|2015|Ordinary election|6638"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00041|2023|Ordinary election|6636","CO-GOB-00041|2019|Ordinary election|6637","CO-GOB-00041|2015|Ordinary election|6638"],"shares":[[0.4713092319775329,0.3488133590949118],[0.5157392299954593,0.3427043796968387],[0.49286710582646287,0.31671062867980465]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"comparison_ci":28.488186733087662,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[11.214724775902395,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,88.7852752240976],[0,0,0,0,9.069203077237265,0,0,0,0,0,90.93079692276274],[0,0,0,0,9.775218313976238,0,0,0.910082722238334,0,6.605119848273513,82.70957911551191]],"volatility_latest":11.214724775902397,"volatility_previous":8.221217807250822,"volatility_mean":9.71797129157661,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Rodrigo Villalba Mosquera (PLC); Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party code from secondary directory; coalition majority not inferred","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/huila","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00044","country":"Colombia","region":"La Guajira","name":"La Guajira","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[33.117739144763945,24.15368738372962,43.09507939619683],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00044|2023|Ordinary election|6639","CO-GOB-00044|2019|Ordinary election|6640","CO-GOB-00044|2015|Ordinary election|6641"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00044|2023|Ordinary election|6639","CO-GOB-00044|2019|Ordinary election|6640","CO-GOB-00044|2015|Ordinary election|6641"],"shares":[[0.6187880670042654,0.28761067555662595],[0.5086905748000489,0.2671537009627527],[0.7154753969809842,0.2845246030190159]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,1.7625572016349145,0,0,1.2441779938351234,0,96.99326480452997],[0,0,28.45246030190159,71.54753969809842,0,0,0,0,0,0,0]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":100.00000000000001,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Jairo Alfonso Aguilar Deluque (PU); Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party code from secondary directory; coalition majority not inferred","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/la-guajira","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00047","country":"Colombia","region":"Magdalena","name":"Magdalena","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2025,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,36.22201345094773,26.63509935312004],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2025-11-23 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00047|CO-GOB-00047-2025-11-23-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6783","CO-GOB-00047|2023|Ordinary election|6642","CO-GOB-00047|2019|Ordinary election|6643"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00047|CO-GOB-00047-2025-11-23-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6783","CO-GOB-00047|2023|Ordinary election|6642","CO-GOB-00047|2019|Ordinary election|6643","CO-GOB-00047|2015|Ordinary election|6644"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.5453707535123596,0.18315061900288235],[0.6159054266140307,0.3495544330828303]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.7858386317497899,1.6681753985641157,96.5459859696861]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"María Margarita Guerra Zúñiga (FC); Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party code from secondary directory; coalition majority not inferred","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/magdalena","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00050","country":"Colombia","region":"Meta","name":"Meta","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.103649054908605,5.599208294580389,2.820070968014658],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00050|2023|Ordinary election|6645","CO-GOB-00050|2019|Ordinary election|6646","CO-GOB-00050|2015|Ordinary election|6647"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00050|2023|Ordinary election|6645","CO-GOB-00050|2019|Ordinary election|6646","CO-GOB-00050|2015|Ordinary election|6647"],"shares":[[0.4006120633055738,0.22957557275648777],[0.3515735603377576,0.29558147739195373],[0.3114063552926374,0.2832056456124908]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"comparison_ci":38.88020490939628,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,11.262330307931258,29.558147739195373,0,0,0,0,59.179521952873365],[0,0,21.822291515915584,17.323754889308297,28.32056456124908,0,0,0,1.3927535042633028,0,31.140635529263736]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":57.597034162805,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Rafaela Cortés Zambrano (CD); Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party code from secondary directory; coalition majority not inferred","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/meta","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00052","country":"Colombia","region":"Nariño","name":"Nariño","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[20.619053409827337,16.033666209318184,19.628167871416508],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00052|2023|Ordinary election|6648","CO-GOB-00052|2019|Ordinary election|6649","CO-GOB-00052|2015|Ordinary election|6650"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00052|2023|Ordinary election|6648","CO-GOB-00052|2019|Ordinary election|6649","CO-GOB-00052|2015|Ordinary election|6650"],"shares":[[0.5557919268760861,0.3496013927778128],[0.46261385548122946,0.3022771933880476],[0.5509386408825818,0.3546569621684167]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"comparison_ci":4.2782565208324685,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,1.514538118980292,0,0,0,0,0,98.48546188101969],[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1.841790929757639,0,98.15820907024235],[0,0,35.46569621684167,0,2.3823457044627836,0,3.1637151958078698,0,3.894378794629498,0,55.09386408825818]],"volatility_latest":1.8417909297576345,"volatility_previous":43.06434498198418,"volatility_mean":22.453067955870907,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Luis Alfonso Escobar Jaramillo (PH); Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party code from secondary directory; coalition majority not inferred","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/narino","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00054","country":"Colombia","region":"Norte De San","name":"Norte De San","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.80234756231591,31.826260935174428,17.417499709076438],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00054|2023|Ordinary election|6651","CO-GOB-00054|2019|Ordinary election|6652","CO-GOB-00054|2015|Ordinary election|6653"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00054|2023|Ordinary election|6651","CO-GOB-00054|2019|Ordinary election|6652","CO-GOB-00054|2015|Ordinary election|6653"],"shares":[[0.40845888625815646,0.2304354106349974],[0.6144474745635784,0.2961848652118341],[0.4409124864392082,0.2667374893484438]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[26.673748934844383,0,0,0,14.707781360621338,0.23630500801447485,0,0,0,0.999087813868983,57.38307688265082]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"William Villamizar Laguado (PC); Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party code from secondary directory; coalition majority not inferred","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/norte-de-santander","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00086","country":"Colombia","region":"Putumayo","name":"Putumayo","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2025,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,7.088704938370128,7.000209563874293],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2025-02-23 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/putumayo/fotos/Boletines_Preconteo/BOLETIN_19_1_64.pdf","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00086|CO-GOB-00086-2025-02-23-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6799","CO-GOB-00086|2023|Ordinary election|6654","CO-GOB-00086|2019|Ordinary election|6655"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00086|CO-GOB-00086-2025-02-23-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6799","CO-GOB-00086|2023|Ordinary election|6654","CO-GOB-00086|2019|Ordinary election|6655","CO-GOB-00086|2015|Ordinary election|6656"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.461139445294873,0.3902523959111717],[0.30161674648204345,0.23161465084330055]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/putumayo/fotos/Boletines_Preconteo/BOLETIN_19_1_64.pdf","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[17.08721737983064,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,82.91278262016935]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Jhon Gabriel Molina Acosta (PC); Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party code from secondary directory; coalition majority not inferred","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/putumayo","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Official preliminary count at 100% of tables":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00063","country":"Colombia","region":"Quindio","name":"Quindio","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.467835764664038,19.95711763222063,9.753748327210431],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00063|2023|Ordinary election|6657","CO-GOB-00063|2019|Ordinary election|6658","CO-GOB-00063|2015|Ordinary election|6659"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00063|2023|Ordinary election|6657","CO-GOB-00063|2019|Ordinary election|6658","CO-GOB-00063|2015|Ordinary election|6659"],"shares":[[0.3689866101306226,0.3443082524839822],[0.49619824386493855,0.2966270675427322],[0.5404197103623454,0.4428822270902411]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"comparison_ci":57.783942094071726,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,5.926054942282976,12.794440907616725,81.2795041501003],[0,0,0,0,0,1.5121165369633223,0.157689717778024,0,0,0,98.33019374525865]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":18.720495849899702,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Juan Miguel Galvis Bedoya (CC); Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party code from secondary directory; coalition majority not inferred","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/quindio","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00066","country":"Colombia","region":"Risaralda","name":"Risaralda","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[1.7013971238222538,19.262873442426066,10.659271548620808],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00066|2023|Ordinary election|6660","CO-GOB-00066|2019|Ordinary election|6661","CO-GOB-00066|2015|Ordinary election|6662"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00066|2023|Ordinary election|6660","CO-GOB-00066|2019|Ordinary election|6661","CO-GOB-00066|2015|Ordinary election|6662"],"shares":[[0.3159294754317501,0.2989155041935275],[0.48761146974928693,0.2949827353250263],[0.5268537832630911,0.420261067776883]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"comparison_ci":60.67186269058374,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,31.592947543175008,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,68.40705245682499],[0,0,0,0,9.599459540609518,12.141119951959165,0,0,0,0,78.25942050743132],[52.685378326309106,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,47.314621673690894]],"volatility_latest":31.59294754317501,"volatility_previous":52.685378326309106,"volatility_mean":42.13916293474206,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Juan Diego Patiño Ochoa (PLC); Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party code from secondary directory; coalition majority not inferred","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/risaralda","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00088","country":"Colombia","region":"San Andres","name":"San Andres","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2026,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,49.84281223206631,14.541036293799486],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2026-07-05 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00088|CO-GOB-00088-2026-07-05-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6775","CO-GOB-00088|2023|Ordinary election|6663","CO-GOB-00088|2019|Ordinary election|6664"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00088|CO-GOB-00088-2026-07-05-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6775","CO-GOB-00088|2023|Ordinary election|6663","CO-GOB-00088|2019|Ordinary election|6664","CO-GOB-00088|2015|Ordinary election|6665"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.7274578450985996,0.22902972277793654],[0.5485615740377832,0.40315121109978835]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0.7216347527865105,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,99.27836524721347],[0,0,0,0,0,2.6573645841498785,0,0,0,0,97.34263541585013]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":2.657364584149868,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Nicolás Iván Gallardo Vásquez; Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party and legislative coalition unverified","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/san-andres-providencia-y-santa-catalina","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00068","country":"Colombia","region":"Santander","name":"Santander","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[24.633745288887262,5.109741500472168,8.748803070977893],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00068|2023|Ordinary election|6666","CO-GOB-00068|2019|Ordinary election|6667","CO-GOB-00068|2015|Ordinary election|6668"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00068|2023|Ordinary election|6666","CO-GOB-00068|2019|Ordinary election|6667","CO-GOB-00068|2015|Ordinary election|6668"],"shares":[[0.4853063595448059,0.23896890665593326],[0.3833103097062132,0.3322128947014915],[0.33462608792298615,0.24713805721320725]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"comparison_ci":14.05975034714102,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,[0,33.46260879229862,22.753834447617255,0,0.17921874732828344,0,0,0,0,0,43.604338012755846]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Juvenal Díaz Mateus (CD); Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party code from secondary directory; coalition majority not inferred","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/santander","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00070","country":"Colombia","region":"Sucre","name":"Sucre","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[4.623356788305244,17.631368115684758,5.3675250702755335],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00070|2023|Ordinary election|6669","CO-GOB-00070|2019|Ordinary election|6670","CO-GOB-00070|2015|Ordinary election|6671"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00070|2023|Ordinary election|6669","CO-GOB-00070|2019|Ordinary election|6670","CO-GOB-00070|2015|Ordinary election|6671"],"shares":[[0.4873528609611084,0.441119293078056],[0.5116518619388082,0.33533818078196054],[0.5104711784137174,0.45679592771096206]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"comparison_ci":56.99911492641936,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,0,0,0,2.8975072274041347,0,0,1.1382752413680248,0,95.96421753122783],[0,51.165186193880814,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,48.83481380611918],[0,0,0,51.04711784137174,2.124758158608569,0,0,1.148531228923492,0,0,45.6795927710962]],"volatility_latest":51.165186193880814,"volatility_previous":54.3204072289038,"volatility_mean":52.7427967113923,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Lucy Inés García Montes (PLC); Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party code from secondary directory; coalition majority not inferred","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/sucre","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00073","country":"Colombia","region":"Tolima","name":"Tolima","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[62.110293968951595,12.62193875795979,0.8556400332883527],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00073|2023|Ordinary election|6672","CO-GOB-00073|2019|Ordinary election|6673","CO-GOB-00073|2015|Ordinary election|6674"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00073|2023|Ordinary election|6672","CO-GOB-00073|2019|Ordinary election|6673","CO-GOB-00073|2015|Ordinary election|6674"],"shares":[[0.7943048711709101,0.1732019314813941],[0.44639955645756907,0.3201801688779712],[0.46246576227912123,0.4539093619462377]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,0,0,17.510011068326175,5.8320163981198005,0,0,0,0,76.65797253355402],[0,0,0,0,0,4.530488740940639,0,0,0,0,95.46951125905936]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":18.81153872550534,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Adriana Magali Matiz Vargas; Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party and legislative coalition unverified","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/tolima","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00076","country":"Colombia","region":"Valle","name":"Valle","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[45.35928762198207,55.57542421183467,12.952308749949086],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00076|2023|Ordinary election|6675","CO-GOB-00076|2019|Ordinary election|6676","CO-GOB-00076|2015|Ordinary election|6677"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00076|2023|Ordinary election|6675","CO-GOB-00076|2019|Ordinary election|6676","CO-GOB-00076|2015|Ordinary election|6677"],"shares":[[0.6458703062898631,0.19227743007004242],[0.6546754290187677,0.09892118690042094],[0.4267498609687548,0.2972267734692639]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"comparison_ci":0,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[3.3132815557981914,0,0,0,4.9999656647644946,6.554871139861148,0,0,0,1.7011049078785632,83.43077673169762],[0,9.039898850093145,42.67498609687548,0,0,9.976749154382457,0,3.5454006635260984,0,0,34.76296523512283]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":58.68216362501604,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Dilian Francisca Toro Torres (PU); Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party code from secondary directory; coalition majority not inferred","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/valle-del-cauca","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00097","country":"Colombia","region":"Vaupes","name":"Vaupes","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[2.7364505844845866,7.244966694109721,20.90993032821288],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review.","sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00097|2023|Ordinary election|6678","CO-GOB-00097|2019|Ordinary election|6679","CO-GOB-00097|2015|Ordinary election|6680"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00097|2023|Ordinary election|6678","CO-GOB-00097|2019|Ordinary election|6679","CO-GOB-00097|2015|Ordinary election|6680"],"shares":[[0.34225557917109456,0.31489107332624866],[0.2902477359479081,0.21779806900681087],[0.6045496516410644,0.3954503483589356]],"cycle_sources":["https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"comparison_ci":70.46823304127521,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[0,0,31.48910733262487,0,0,12.480074388947928,0.6907545164718385,0,0,0,55.34006376195536],[0,9.018786019010554,0,12.379312925679216,29.02477359479081,0,15.44046104333508,0,0,1.0253723523688347,33.11129406481551],[0,0,0,60.45496516410644,0,0,0,0,0,0,39.54503483589356]],"volatility_latest":66.19795141871265,"volatility_previous":54.509393009505274,"volatility_mean":60.35367221410896,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Luis Alfredo Gutiérrez García (GM); Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party code from secondary directory; coalition majority not inferred","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/vaupes","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-GOB-00099","country":"Colombia","region":"Vichada","name":"Vichada","office":"Governor","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":4,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2025,2023,2019],"gaps":[null,1.9727335553182144,46.88180255871683],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Known 2025-06-15 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/vichada/fotos/Boletines_Preconteo/BOLETIN_32_1_72.pdf","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/RVMSY8"],"selected_keys":["CO-GOB-00099|CO-GOB-00099-2025-06-15-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6788","CO-GOB-00099|2023|Ordinary election|6681","CO-GOB-00099|2019|Ordinary election|6682"],"all_keys":["CO-GOB-00099|CO-GOB-00099-2025-06-15-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6788","CO-GOB-00099|2023|Ordinary election|6681","CO-GOB-00099|2019|Ordinary election|6682","CO-GOB-00099|2015|Ordinary election|6683"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.3128416158823899,0.2931142803292078],[0.68890586213481,0.22008783654764177]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/vichada/fotos/Boletines_Preconteo/BOLETIN_32_1_72.pdf","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/DXRKFJ","https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/BCJ7ZW"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[0,0,31.28416158823899,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,68.71583841176101],[0,0,0,0,0,7.5997708611800645,0,0,0,0,92.40022913881992]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":31.284161588238984,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Fulberto Guevara (AV); Primary association directory; page undated; retrieved 12 Sep 2026; Party code from secondary directory; coalition majority not inferred","current_government_source":"https://fnd.org.co/departamentos/vichada","as_elected_control":null,"current_control_status":"Primary association directory; page undated","registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Official preliminary count at 100% of tables":1,"Full positive candidate vector":3},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ASA-00091","country":"Colombia","region":"Amazonas","name":"Amazonas","office":"Departmental assembly","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":2,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2019,2015],"gaps":[1.2733318219602516,6.120887528691659,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. MISSING ordinary-cycle return(s): [2023]; no zero or substitute election inserted. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00091|2019|Ordinary election|6684","CO-ASA-00091|2015|Ordinary election|6685"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00091|2019|Ordinary election|6684","CO-ASA-00091|2015|Ordinary election|6685"],"shares":[[0.12858006498904254,0.11584674676944003],[0.17686814588115277,0.11565927059423617],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00005|2023|Ordinary election|6686","CO-ASA-00005|2019|Ordinary election|6687","CO-ASA-00005|2015|Ordinary election|6688"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00005|2023|Ordinary election|6686","CO-ASA-00005|2019|Ordinary election|6687","CO-ASA-00005|2015|Ordinary election|6688"],"shares":[[0.21311244457655248,0.17868849751884602],[0.24846077409275605,0.18579362127438925],[0.23836414136576956,0.17875554704210964]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"comparison_ci":77.29231324375006,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ASA-00081","country":"Colombia","region":"Arauca","name":"Arauca","office":"Departmental assembly","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[8.79220319943417,4.382077331881092,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00081|2023|Ordinary election|6689","CO-ASA-00081|2019|Ordinary election|6690","CO-ASA-00081|2015|Ordinary election|6691"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00081|2023|Ordinary election|6689","CO-ASA-00081|2019|Ordinary election|6690","CO-ASA-00081|2015|Ordinary election|6691"],"shares":[[0.2485074161136652,0.1605853841193235],[0.23088768286041578,0.18706690954160485],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00008|2023|Ordinary election|6692","CO-ASA-00008|2019|Ordinary election|6693","CO-ASA-00008|2015|Ordinary election|6694"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00008|2023|Ordinary election|6692","CO-ASA-00008|2019|Ordinary election|6693","CO-ASA-00008|2015|Ordinary election|6694"],"shares":[[0.30815725272907707,0.24750764968574263],[0.36878083857810745,0.1675549256174652],[0.27673842516912706,0.26909312677614866]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"comparison_ci":51.23896722325443,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00013|2023|Ordinary election|6695","CO-ASA-00013|2019|Ordinary election|6696","CO-ASA-00013|2015|Ordinary election|6697"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00013|2023|Ordinary election|6695","CO-ASA-00013|2019|Ordinary election|6696","CO-ASA-00013|2015|Ordinary election|6697"],"shares":[[0.3280681147478714,0.18811176755900724],[0.21774167698696,0.18428935674218694],[0.21497970963071844,0.20757950625184132]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"comparison_ci":52.62523763768095,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00015|2023|Ordinary election|6698","CO-ASA-00015|2019|Ordinary election|6699","CO-ASA-00015|2015|Ordinary election|6700"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00015|2023|Ordinary election|6698","CO-ASA-00015|2019|Ordinary election|6699","CO-ASA-00015|2015|Ordinary election|6700"],"shares":[[0.2632107138522516,0.1948778424478247],[0.28484261839207553,0.17498314785256805],[0.2581497518133668,0.1600972146844088]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"comparison_ci":58.11859114129789,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00017|2023|Ordinary election|6701","CO-ASA-00017|2019|Ordinary election|6702","CO-ASA-00017|2015|Ordinary election|6703"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00017|2023|Ordinary election|6701","CO-ASA-00017|2019|Ordinary election|6702","CO-ASA-00017|2015|Ordinary election|6703"],"shares":[[0.2045894790534427,0.2001566665249786],[0.2721144865739069,0.19992480552381012],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00085|2023|Ordinary election|6707","CO-ASA-00085|2019|Ordinary election|6708","CO-ASA-00085|2015|Ordinary election|6709"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00085|2023|Ordinary election|6707","CO-ASA-00085|2019|Ordinary election|6708","CO-ASA-00085|2015|Ordinary election|6709"],"shares":[[0.18574703520159586,0.18409165678835698],[0.2062219494418658,0.18829151208605732],[0.1820871784439554,0.174529494078992]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"comparison_ci":96.43593665440889,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00019|2023|Ordinary election|6710","CO-ASA-00019|2019|Ordinary election|6711","CO-ASA-00019|2015|Ordinary election|6712"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00019|2023|Ordinary election|6710","CO-ASA-00019|2019|Ordinary election|6711","CO-ASA-00019|2015|Ordinary election|6712"],"shares":[[0.17877432406863863,0.15477894267015327],[0.14958506065087623,0.13691849104604562],[0.20677365131060566,0.17494353101854285]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"comparison_ci":89.30989412512666,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00020|2023|Ordinary election|6713","CO-ASA-00020|2019|Ordinary election|6714","CO-ASA-00020|2015|Ordinary election|6715"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00020|2023|Ordinary election|6713","CO-ASA-00020|2019|Ordinary election|6714","CO-ASA-00020|2015|Ordinary election|6715"],"shares":[[0.20824172357959125,0.153979153864666],[0.17193775160728234,0.16375653427867573],[0.2225370040172721,0.15649369481621517]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"comparison_ci":79.19188102617859,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00027|2023|Ordinary election|6716","CO-ASA-00027|2019|Ordinary election|6717","CO-ASA-00027|2015|Ordinary election|6718"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00027|2023|Ordinary election|6716","CO-ASA-00027|2019|Ordinary election|6717","CO-ASA-00027|2015|Ordinary election|6718"],"shares":[[0.19098592543361778,0.1634896455185475],[0.23033070249820625,0.13824277607462004],[0.21702599501807704,0.1808484886345002]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"comparison_ci":76.12905174276214,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00023|2023|Ordinary election|6719","CO-ASA-00023|2019|Ordinary election|6720","CO-ASA-00023|2015|Ordinary election|6721"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00023|2023|Ordinary election|6719","CO-ASA-00023|2019|Ordinary election|6720","CO-ASA-00023|2015|Ordinary election|6721"],"shares":[[0.2492053823578271,0.22461791904313638],[0.26790562579602994,0.23594638252927835],[0.34155656221413977,0.19695318251423932]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"comparison_ci":80.59970553058503,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00025|2023|Ordinary election|6722","CO-ASA-00025|2019|Ordinary election|6723","CO-ASA-00025|2015|Ordinary election|6724"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00025|2023|Ordinary election|6722","CO-ASA-00025|2019|Ordinary election|6723","CO-ASA-00025|2015|Ordinary election|6724"],"shares":[[0.16554554444100208,0.15617267970139245],[0.19749551024965803,0.17009058594731408],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00094|2019|Ordinary election|6725","CO-ASA-00094|2015|Ordinary election|6726"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00094|2019|Ordinary election|6725","CO-ASA-00094|2015|Ordinary election|6726"],"shares":[[0.16043765572527352,0.14705882352941177],[0.18824228028503562,0.11831947743467934],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00095|2023|Ordinary election|6727","CO-ASA-00095|2019|Ordinary election|6728","CO-ASA-00095|2015|Ordinary election|6729"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00095|2023|Ordinary election|6727","CO-ASA-00095|2019|Ordinary election|6728","CO-ASA-00095|2015|Ordinary election|6729"],"shares":[[0.30066405312424993,0.1554791049950663],[0.19932062870631587,0.15334791870574013],[0.2264308950945341,0.15354140496666344]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"comparison_ci":45.90413455476501,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00041|2019|Ordinary election|6730","CO-ASA-00041|2015|Ordinary election|6731"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00041|2019|Ordinary election|6730","CO-ASA-00041|2015|Ordinary election|6731"],"shares":[[0.21423611620481073,0.18231206693365803],[0.1888884180641334,0.1768541373136858],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00044|2023|Ordinary election|6732","CO-ASA-00044|2019|Ordinary election|6733","CO-ASA-00044|2015|Ordinary election|6734"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00044|2023|Ordinary election|6732","CO-ASA-00044|2019|Ordinary election|6733","CO-ASA-00044|2015|Ordinary election|6734"],"shares":[[0.2956348516558778,0.17538120302320245],[0.26796032560558986,0.2507134923870714],[0.23251121076233183,0.1719931133888533]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"comparison_ci":58.3109755587457,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00047|2023|Ordinary election|6735","CO-ASA-00047|2019|Ordinary election|6736","CO-ASA-00047|2015|Ordinary election|6737"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00047|2023|Ordinary election|6735","CO-ASA-00047|2019|Ordinary election|6736","CO-ASA-00047|2015|Ordinary election|6737"],"shares":[[0.20505299108978484,0.16567019415966777],[0.3006129406252901,0.13164513781988313],[0.25256583706003494,0.15898217190807923]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"comparison_ci":58.16080724255605,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00050|2023|Ordinary election|6738","CO-ASA-00050|2019|Ordinary election|6739","CO-ASA-00050|2015|Ordinary election|6740"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00050|2023|Ordinary election|6738","CO-ASA-00050|2019|Ordinary election|6739","CO-ASA-00050|2015|Ordinary election|6740"],"shares":[[0.19695814821129487,0.16987182701661838],[0.16135869839826186,0.15683896720731647],[0.19600740655016782,0.18725263279712998]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"comparison_ci":90.75840527530335,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00052|2023|Ordinary election|6741","CO-ASA-00052|2019|Ordinary election|6742","CO-ASA-00052|2015|Ordinary election|6743"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00052|2023|Ordinary election|6741","CO-ASA-00052|2019|Ordinary election|6742","CO-ASA-00052|2015|Ordinary election|6743"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.21883629286340558,0.16243917948915587],[0.21232109165062607,0.18066741628709193]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00054|2023|Ordinary election|6744","CO-ASA-00054|2019|Ordinary election|6745","CO-ASA-00054|2015|Ordinary election|6746"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00054|2023|Ordinary election|6744","CO-ASA-00054|2019|Ordinary election|6745","CO-ASA-00054|2015|Ordinary election|6746"],"shares":[[0.2313448063550533,0.1607056990718315],[0.2048438057244651,0.16890774223957017],[0.26069450051467186,0.1815534001103321]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"comparison_ci":69.46080327208225,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ASA-00086","country":"Colombia","region":"Putumayo","name":"Putumayo","office":"Departmental assembly","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[0.15685712465762158,0.09124637381745515,4.891667686744945],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00086|2023|Ordinary election|6747","CO-ASA-00086|2019|Ordinary election|6748","CO-ASA-00086|2015|Ordinary election|6749"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00086|2023|Ordinary election|6747","CO-ASA-00086|2019|Ordinary election|6748","CO-ASA-00086|2015|Ordinary election|6749"],"shares":[[0.12042964520033124,0.11886107395375502],[0.1658015477450955,0.16488908400692096],[0.21920697545220855,0.17029029858475908]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"comparison_ci":96.94672522192847,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ASA-00063","country":"Colombia","region":"Quindio","name":"Quindio","office":"Departmental assembly","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[6.91992220301978,8.349672097897368,2.8548072075070863],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00063|2023|Ordinary election|6750","CO-ASA-00063|2019|Ordinary election|6751","CO-ASA-00063|2015|Ordinary election|6752"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00063|2023|Ordinary election|6750","CO-ASA-00063|2019|Ordinary election|6751","CO-ASA-00063|2015|Ordinary election|6752"],"shares":[[0.2496329564477769,0.18043373441757907],[0.29703197890609156,0.21353525792711786],[0.2709619310088258,0.24241385893375497]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"comparison_ci":65.28832164034107,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":3},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ASA-00066","country":"Colombia","region":"Risaralda","name":"Risaralda","office":"Departmental assembly","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":2,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2019,2015],"gaps":[3.137933785954406,4.690696834757492,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. MISSING ordinary-cycle return(s): [2023]; no zero or substitute election inserted. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00066|2019|Ordinary election|6753","CO-ASA-00066|2015|Ordinary election|6754"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00066|2019|Ordinary election|6753","CO-ASA-00066|2015|Ordinary election|6754"],"shares":[[0.2468542604086079,0.21547492254906384],[0.25523194394298016,0.20832497559540525],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":2},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ASA-00088","country":"Colombia","region":"San Andres","name":"San Andres","office":"Departmental assembly","tier":"Regional","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":3,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[17.96297625026907,3.831340768675279,1.7664723547076484],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00088|2023|Ordinary election|6755","CO-ASA-00088|2019|Ordinary election|6756","CO-ASA-00088|2015|Ordinary election|6757"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00088|2023|Ordinary election|6755","CO-ASA-00088|2019|Ordinary election|6756","CO-ASA-00088|2015|Ordinary election|6757"],"shares":[[0.3489273157781445,0.16929755327545382],[0.20693252025996953,0.1686191125732167],[0.2021727609962904,0.1845080374492139]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"comparison_ci":39.48082391882606,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00068|2023|Ordinary election|6758","CO-ASA-00068|2019|Ordinary election|6759","CO-ASA-00068|2015|Ordinary election|6760"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00068|2023|Ordinary election|6758","CO-ASA-00068|2019|Ordinary election|6759","CO-ASA-00068|2015|Ordinary election|6760"],"shares":[[0.15672053090497873,0.12067136862780109],[0.1394684083480195,0.12291418920822164],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00070|2023|Ordinary election|6761","CO-ASA-00070|2019|Ordinary election|6762","CO-ASA-00070|2015|Ordinary election|6763"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00070|2023|Ordinary election|6761","CO-ASA-00070|2019|Ordinary election|6762","CO-ASA-00070|2015|Ordinary election|6763"],"shares":[[0.38664319175925643,0.29791711956197164],[0.3433744510236339,0.24224701311080776],[0.23277191844930273,0.19389206402325837]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"comparison_ci":56.26906993258842,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00073|2023|Ordinary election|6764","CO-ASA-00073|2019|Ordinary election|6765","CO-ASA-00073|2015|Ordinary election|6766"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00073|2023|Ordinary election|6764","CO-ASA-00073|2019|Ordinary election|6765","CO-ASA-00073|2015|Ordinary election|6766"],"shares":[[0.3560457829784513,0.13303067118528467],[0.23614335562259325,0.15360126784646824],[0.21842461904604502,0.199597678624552]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"comparison_ci":19.772806274556608,"comparison_status":"Provisional imported-series comparison; actual-event review open","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00076|2023|Ordinary election|6767","CO-ASA-00076|2019|Ordinary election|6768","CO-ASA-00076|2015|Ordinary election|6769"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00076|2023|Ordinary election|6767","CO-ASA-00076|2019|Ordinary election|6768","CO-ASA-00076|2015|Ordinary election|6769"],"shares":[[0.23199975801122455,0.13288286192058427],[0.22661909504463132,0.17714362716322063],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2787","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. MISSING ordinary-cycle return(s): [2023]; no zero or substitute election inserted. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00097|2019|Ordinary election|6770","CO-ASA-00097|2015|Ordinary election|6771"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00097|2019|Ordinary election|6770","CO-ASA-00097|2015|Ordinary election|6771"],"shares":[[0.1713694218678117,0.1675356540407913],[0.2697339918551252,0.1804003119313751],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Expected ordinary election on the last Sunday of October; formal call and 2027 roster require refresh. CEDE/Registraduría ordinary returns V2. Shares exclude blank and invalid ballots. Changing coalition labels and current control are not harmonized. Repeats, annulments and opposition-seat acceptance require certification review. MISSING ordinary-cycle return(s): [2023]; no zero or substitute election inserted. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774"],"selected_keys":["CO-ASA-00099|2019|Ordinary election|6772","CO-ASA-00099|2015|Ordinary election|6773"],"all_keys":["CO-ASA-00099|2019|Ordinary election|6772","CO-ASA-00099|2015|Ordinary election|6773"],"shares":[[0.14730684494416166,0.1424827167059181],[0.1918026597306708,0.16579267525275831],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/3001","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2774",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. 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Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[[3.012231254273342,9.955937096406593,10.442148446402795,14.730684494416167,14.24827167059181,7.33495403783332,14.12671883309276,10.464939603433868,0,7.900934437438274,7.783180126111069],[3.3309560766875026,16.57926752527583,19.18026597306708,12.019129924067625,8.339975668079036,5.130679196207576,14.87603305785124,6.33888492679448,0.7047866761756932,8.063095188152872,5.436925787641062],null],"volatility_latest":17.296434429596456,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"CEDE list-ballot aggregation reconciled; final legal outcomes and full seat allocation remain separate":2},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-CHOCO-NUEVO-BELEN-DE-BAJIRA","country":"Colombia","region":"Chocó","name":"Nuevo Belén de Bajirá","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":1,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2024],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Named in primary special-election register; ordinary geographic code/current boundary bridge not yet joined. Known 2024-06-09 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-CHOCO-NUEVO-BELEN-DE-BAJIRA|CO-ALC-CHOCO-NUEVO-BELEN-DE-BAJIRA-2024-06-09-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6804"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-CHOCO-NUEVO-BELEN-DE-BAJIRA|CO-ALC-CHOCO-NUEVO-BELEN-DE-BAJIRA-2024-06-09-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6804"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Named in primary special-election register; ordinary geographic code/current boundary bridge not yet joined. Known 2024-06-09 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-CHOCO-NUEVO-BELEN-DE-BAJIRA|CO-CON-CHOCO-NUEVO-BELEN-DE-BAJIRA-2024-06-09-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6805"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-CHOCO-NUEVO-BELEN-DE-BAJIRA|CO-CON-CHOCO-NUEVO-BELEN-DE-BAJIRA-2024-06-09-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6805"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-ALC-PUTUMAYO-SANTIAGO","country":"Colombia","region":"Putumayo","name":"Santiago","office":"Mayor","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":1,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Named in primary special-election register; ordinary geographic code/current boundary bridge not yet joined. Known 2023-12-03 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/"],"selected_keys":["CO-ALC-PUTUMAYO-SANTIAGO|CO-ALC-PUTUMAYO-SANTIAGO-2023-12-03-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6813"],"all_keys":["CO-ALC-PUTUMAYO-SANTIAGO|CO-ALC-PUTUMAYO-SANTIAGO-2023-12-03-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6813"],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","",""],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-CON-PUTUMAYO-SANTIAGO","country":"Colombia","region":"Putumayo","name":"Santiago","office":"Municipal council","tier":"Municipal","date":"2027-10-31","current":true,"events":3,"vote_cycles":2,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[2023,2019,2015],"gaps":[null,15.096647908000978,2.502876869965476],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Named in primary special-election register; ordinary geographic code/current boundary bridge not yet joined. Known 2023-12-03 special/repeat event; final outcome and annulment/succession status remain unverified. Closed-list ballot totals use the list row once; positive candidate-roster copies are excluded. Any mixed list-type source groups are flagged and the affected vote comparison is withheld. The 2015 and 2019 council returns use CEDE code 86760 and the exact Santiago/Putumayo name. They are joined to the named current office, retaining the December 2023 repeat as the latest event.","sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"selected_keys":["CO-CON-PUTUMAYO-SANTIAGO|CO-CON-PUTUMAYO-SANTIAGO-2023-12-03-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6814","CO-CON-PUTUMAYO-SANTIAGO|2019|Ordinary election|6824","CO-CON-PUTUMAYO-SANTIAGO|2015|Ordinary election|6823"],"all_keys":["CO-CON-PUTUMAYO-SANTIAGO|CO-CON-PUTUMAYO-SANTIAGO-2023-12-03-special|Special or repeated election; certificate pending|6814","CO-CON-PUTUMAYO-SANTIAGO|2019|Ordinary election|6824","CO-CON-PUTUMAYO-SANTIAGO|2015|Ordinary election|6823"],"shares":[[null,null],[0.3136775140689993,0.16271103498898948],[0.25172612197928657,0.22669735327963178]],"cycle_sources":["https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2890","https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"],"comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,[31.367751406899927,0,16.27110349889895,4.722290188402251,1.2967947149498409,11.891362857841937,16.148764374847076,7.02226572057744,0,0,11.279667237582577],[16.340621403912543,22.669735327963178,25.172612197928654,5.408515535097814,0,0,0,10.903337169159954,0,3.9700805523590335,15.535097813578826]],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":44.36405195062624,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"Imported office register; cohort verification described in local note","source_quality_counts":{"Primary event register; return not recovered":1,"CEDE list-ballot aggregation; exact municipality and department joined to named current office":2},"unresolved_event_count":1,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-JAL-76001-01","country":"Colombia","region":"VALLE DEL CAUCA","name":"Cali / Comuna 1","office":"Local administrative board (JAL)","tier":"Submunicipal","date":"2027-10-31; expected ordinary cycle, formal call pending","current":true,"events":0,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 7 members for this board. This is a roster count, not a verified statutory seat total or party-control determination.","governing_control_source_id":"SA39-CO-CALI-DIRECTORY-2","comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"37-board city directory reconciled; national JAL electoral register incomplete","source_quality_counts":{},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-JAL-76001-02","country":"Colombia","region":"VALLE DEL CAUCA","name":"Cali / Comuna 2","office":"Local administrative board (JAL)","tier":"Submunicipal","date":"2027-10-31; expected ordinary cycle, formal call pending","current":true,"events":0,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 9 members for this board. This is a roster count, not a verified statutory seat total or party-control determination.","governing_control_source_id":"SA39-CO-CALI-DIRECTORY-2","comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"37-board city directory reconciled; national JAL electoral register incomplete","source_quality_counts":{},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-JAL-76001-03","country":"Colombia","region":"VALLE DEL CAUCA","name":"Cali / Comuna 3","office":"Local administrative board (JAL)","tier":"Submunicipal","date":"2027-10-31; expected ordinary cycle, formal call pending","current":true,"events":0,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 7 members for this board. This is a roster count, not a verified statutory seat total or party-control determination.","governing_control_source_id":"SA39-CO-CALI-DIRECTORY-2","comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"37-board city directory reconciled; national JAL electoral register incomplete","source_quality_counts":{},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-JAL-76001-04","country":"Colombia","region":"VALLE DEL CAUCA","name":"Cali / Comuna 4","office":"Local administrative board (JAL)","tier":"Submunicipal","date":"2027-10-31; expected ordinary cycle, formal call pending","current":true,"events":0,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 6 members for this board. This is a roster count, not a verified statutory seat total or party-control determination.","governing_control_source_id":"SA39-CO-CALI-DIRECTORY-2","comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"37-board city directory reconciled; national JAL electoral register incomplete","source_quality_counts":{},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-JAL-76001-05","country":"Colombia","region":"VALLE DEL CAUCA","name":"Cali / Comuna 5","office":"Local administrative board (JAL)","tier":"Submunicipal","date":"2027-10-31; expected ordinary cycle, formal call pending","current":true,"events":0,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 9 members for this board. This is a roster count, not a verified statutory seat total or party-control determination.","governing_control_source_id":"SA39-CO-CALI-DIRECTORY-2","comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. 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The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"37-board city directory reconciled; national JAL electoral register incomplete","source_quality_counts":{},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-JAL-76001-06","country":"Colombia","region":"VALLE DEL CAUCA","name":"Cali / Comuna 6","office":"Local administrative board (JAL)","tier":"Submunicipal","date":"2027-10-31; expected ordinary cycle, formal call pending","current":true,"events":0,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 8 members for this board. This is a roster count, not a verified statutory seat total or party-control determination.","governing_control_source_id":"SA39-CO-CALI-DIRECTORY-2","comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"37-board city directory reconciled; national JAL electoral register incomplete","source_quality_counts":{},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-JAL-76001-07","country":"Colombia","region":"VALLE DEL CAUCA","name":"Cali / Comuna 7","office":"Local administrative board (JAL)","tier":"Submunicipal","date":"2027-10-31; expected ordinary cycle, formal call pending","current":true,"events":0,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 8 members for this board. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"37-board city directory reconciled; national JAL electoral register incomplete","source_quality_counts":{},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-JAL-76001-08","country":"Colombia","region":"VALLE DEL CAUCA","name":"Cali / Comuna 8","office":"Local administrative board (JAL)","tier":"Submunicipal","date":"2027-10-31; expected ordinary cycle, formal call pending","current":true,"events":0,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 9 members for this board. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 8 members for this board. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 9 members for this board. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"37-board city directory reconciled; national JAL electoral register incomplete","source_quality_counts":{},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-JAL-76001-11","country":"Colombia","region":"VALLE DEL CAUCA","name":"Cali / Comuna 11","office":"Local administrative board (JAL)","tier":"Submunicipal","date":"2027-10-31; expected ordinary cycle, formal call pending","current":true,"events":0,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 8 members for this board. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"37-board city directory reconciled; national JAL electoral register incomplete","source_quality_counts":{},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-JAL-76001-12","country":"Colombia","region":"VALLE DEL CAUCA","name":"Cali / Comuna 12","office":"Local administrative board (JAL)","tier":"Submunicipal","date":"2027-10-31; expected ordinary cycle, formal call pending","current":true,"events":0,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 9 members for this board. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"37-board city directory reconciled; national JAL electoral register incomplete","source_quality_counts":{},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-JAL-76001-13","country":"Colombia","region":"VALLE DEL CAUCA","name":"Cali / Comuna 13","office":"Local administrative board (JAL)","tier":"Submunicipal","date":"2027-10-31; expected ordinary cycle, formal call pending","current":true,"events":0,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 9 members for this board. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 9 members for this board. This is a roster count, not a verified statutory seat total or party-control determination.","governing_control_source_id":"SA39-CO-CALI-DIRECTORY-2","comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"37-board city directory reconciled; national JAL electoral register incomplete","source_quality_counts":{},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-JAL-76001-15","country":"Colombia","region":"VALLE DEL CAUCA","name":"Cali / Comuna 15","office":"Local administrative board (JAL)","tier":"Submunicipal","date":"2027-10-31; expected ordinary cycle, formal call pending","current":true,"events":0,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 9 members for this board. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"37-board city directory reconciled; national JAL electoral register incomplete","source_quality_counts":{},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-JAL-76001-16","country":"Colombia","region":"VALLE DEL CAUCA","name":"Cali / Comuna 16","office":"Local administrative board (JAL)","tier":"Submunicipal","date":"2027-10-31; expected ordinary cycle, formal call pending","current":true,"events":0,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 8 members for this board. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"37-board city directory reconciled; national JAL electoral register incomplete","source_quality_counts":{},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-JAL-76001-17","country":"Colombia","region":"VALLE DEL CAUCA","name":"Cali / Comuna 17","office":"Local administrative board (JAL)","tier":"Submunicipal","date":"2027-10-31; expected ordinary cycle, formal call pending","current":true,"events":0,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 9 members for this board. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 7 members for this board. This is a roster count, not a verified statutory seat total or party-control determination.","governing_control_source_id":"SA39-CO-CALI-DIRECTORY-2","comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"37-board city directory reconciled; national JAL electoral register incomplete","source_quality_counts":{},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-JAL-76001-19","country":"Colombia","region":"VALLE DEL CAUCA","name":"Cali / Comuna 19","office":"Local administrative board (JAL)","tier":"Submunicipal","date":"2027-10-31; expected ordinary cycle, formal call pending","current":true,"events":0,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 8 members for this board. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"37-board city directory reconciled; national JAL electoral register incomplete","source_quality_counts":{},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-JAL-76001-20","country":"Colombia","region":"VALLE DEL CAUCA","name":"Cali / Comuna 20","office":"Local administrative board (JAL)","tier":"Submunicipal","date":"2027-10-31; expected ordinary cycle, formal call pending","current":true,"events":0,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 6 members for this board. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"37-board city directory reconciled; national JAL electoral register incomplete","source_quality_counts":{},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-JAL-76001-21","country":"Colombia","region":"VALLE DEL CAUCA","name":"Cali / Comuna 21","office":"Local administrative board (JAL)","tier":"Submunicipal","date":"2027-10-31; expected ordinary cycle, formal call pending","current":true,"events":0,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 7 members for this board. This is a roster count, not a verified statutory seat total or party-control determination.","governing_control_source_id":"SA39-CO-CALI-DIRECTORY-2","comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 7 members for this board. This is a roster count, not a verified statutory seat total or party-control determination.","governing_control_source_id":"SA39-CO-CALI-DIRECTORY-2","comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"37-board city directory reconciled; national JAL electoral register incomplete","source_quality_counts":{},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-JAL-76001-51","country":"Colombia","region":"VALLE DEL CAUCA","name":"Cali / Corregimiento Navarro","office":"Local administrative board (JAL)","tier":"Submunicipal","date":"2027-10-31; expected ordinary cycle, formal call pending","current":true,"events":0,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 9 members for this board. This is a roster count, not a verified statutory seat total or party-control determination.","governing_control_source_id":"SA39-CO-CALI-DIRECTORY-2","comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"37-board city directory reconciled; national JAL electoral register incomplete","source_quality_counts":{},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-JAL-76001-52","country":"Colombia","region":"VALLE DEL CAUCA","name":"Cali / Corregimiento Hormiguero","office":"Local administrative board (JAL)","tier":"Submunicipal","date":"2027-10-31; expected ordinary cycle, formal call pending","current":true,"events":0,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 6 members for this board. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"37-board city directory reconciled; national JAL electoral register incomplete","source_quality_counts":{},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-JAL-76001-53","country":"Colombia","region":"VALLE DEL CAUCA","name":"Cali / Corregimiento Pance","office":"Local administrative board (JAL)","tier":"Submunicipal","date":"2027-10-31; expected ordinary cycle, formal call pending","current":true,"events":0,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 7 members for this board. This is a roster count, not a verified statutory seat total or party-control determination.","governing_control_source_id":"SA39-CO-CALI-DIRECTORY-2","comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 9 members for this board. This is a roster count, not a verified statutory seat total or party-control determination.","governing_control_source_id":"SA39-CO-CALI-DIRECTORY-2","comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"37-board city directory reconciled; national JAL electoral register incomplete","source_quality_counts":{},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-JAL-76001-55","country":"Colombia","region":"VALLE DEL CAUCA","name":"Cali / Corregimiento Villacarmelo","office":"Local administrative board (JAL)","tier":"Submunicipal","date":"2027-10-31; expected ordinary cycle, formal call pending","current":true,"events":0,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 8 members for this board. This is a roster count, not a verified statutory seat total or party-control determination.","governing_control_source_id":"SA39-CO-CALI-DIRECTORY-2","comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"37-board city directory reconciled; national JAL electoral register incomplete","source_quality_counts":{},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-JAL-76001-56","country":"Colombia","region":"VALLE DEL CAUCA","name":"Cali / Corregimiento Los Andes","office":"Local administrative board (JAL)","tier":"Submunicipal","date":"2027-10-31; expected ordinary cycle, formal call pending","current":true,"events":0,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 7 members for this board. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"37-board city directory reconciled; national JAL electoral register incomplete","source_quality_counts":{},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-JAL-76001-57","country":"Colombia","region":"VALLE DEL CAUCA","name":"Cali / Corregimiento Pichindé","office":"Local administrative board (JAL)","tier":"Submunicipal","date":"2027-10-31; expected ordinary cycle, formal call pending","current":true,"events":0,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 9 members for this board. This is a roster count, not a verified statutory seat total or party-control determination.","governing_control_source_id":"SA39-CO-CALI-DIRECTORY-2","comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 9 members for this board. This is a roster count, not a verified statutory seat total or party-control determination.","governing_control_source_id":"SA39-CO-CALI-DIRECTORY-2","comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. Event review: Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","volatility_groups":["Conservador","Liberal","La U","Cambio Radical","Centro Democratico","Alianza Verde","ASI","MAIS","Polo","AICO","Other"],"volatility_vectors":[null,null,null],"volatility_latest":null,"volatility_previous":null,"volatility_mean":null,"polling_context":[{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-07-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-08-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-07","sample":2191,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Gustavo Petro","incumbent_share":46.4,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":51.1,"approve_pct":46.4,"disapprove_pct":51.1,"unsure_pct":2.5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"Earlier comparison wave; named officeholder and question wording retained. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"37-board city directory reconciled; national JAL electoral register incomplete","source_quality_counts":{},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-JAL-76001-59","country":"Colombia","region":"VALLE DEL CAUCA","name":"Cali / Corregimiento Felidia","office":"Local administrative board (JAL)","tier":"Submunicipal","date":"2027-10-31; expected ordinary cycle, formal call pending","current":true,"events":0,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 9 members for this board. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"37-board city directory reconciled; national JAL electoral register incomplete","source_quality_counts":{},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-JAL-76001-60","country":"Colombia","region":"VALLE DEL CAUCA","name":"Cali / Corregimiento Saladito","office":"Local administrative board (JAL)","tier":"Submunicipal","date":"2027-10-31; expected ordinary cycle, formal call pending","current":true,"events":0,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 9 members for this board. 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Outgoing-president evaluation, not the new administration baseline.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn.atlasintel.org/c8251124-96b7-4fd6-969e-e1e29d118e5f.pdf","source_sha256":"b5ac4d9c0fe2d3a92638afaa94c1f117aee276a9651e4fdd6dbf1b84a299450c","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null},{"country":"Colombia","scope":"National presidential approval; context for subnational races","pollster":"AtlasIntel / Bloomberg","series_id":"atlas_latam_2026_jul_aug","fieldwork_start":"2026-08-30","fieldwork_end":"2026-09-03","publication_date":null,"report_month":"2026-08","sample":1904,"margin_of_error_pp":2,"methodology":"Atlas RDR, digitally recruited and post-stratified national adult sample; reported 95% confidence margin","measure":"Presidential job approval","incumbent_candidate":"Abelardo de la Espriella","incumbent_share":51.8,"opposition_candidate":"Disapprove (response category, not an opposition candidate)","opposition_share":43.2,"approve_pct":51.8,"disapprove_pct":43.2,"unsure_pct":5,"candidate_label_note":"Approval/disapproval responses; these are not vote intentions or party shares","interpretation":"The July survey evaluates outgoing Gustavo Petro and the August survey evaluates Abelardo de la Espriella. No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. The new administration starts with a positive approval balance; local party alignments and 2027 candidate selections must be checked separately.","local_forecast":"Context indicator only; no uniform national-to-local swing or win probability","source_type":"Primary pollster report; chart visually verified on PDF page 8; sample on page 6","url":"https://cdn1.atlasintel.org/co_latam_pulse_atlas__bloomberg_08_2026_f57adf8c3ad462c6.pdf","source_sha256":"4a464549cb8dd945f1b4ec8d49b33510dc77e797b48cecd6a7c7f159bfcdbba4","source_pages":[6,8],"retrieved":"2026-09-13","precision_note":"One decimal place as printed","within_person_comparable":false,"approval_change_pp":null}],"current_government":"Unverified","current_government_source":"","as_elected_control":null,"registry_status":"37-board city directory reconciled; national JAL electoral register incomplete","source_quality_counts":{},"unresolved_event_count":0,"resolved_invalid_event_count":0},{"id":"CO-JAL-76001-61","country":"Colombia","region":"VALLE DEL CAUCA","name":"Cali / Corregimiento La Elvira","office":"Local administrative board (JAL)","tier":"Submunicipal","date":"2027-10-31; expected ordinary cycle, formal call pending","current":true,"events":0,"vote_cycles":0,"seat_cycles":0,"years":[],"gaps":[null,null,null],"score_gate":false,"event_review":"Actual-event and/or comparability review incomplete","basis":"Imported comparison cycles; certification review open","note":"Ordinary regional/municipal returns are supplemented by 38 published replacement/repeat events and the Cartago September 2026 call. Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 9 members for this board. This is a roster count, not a verified statutory seat total or party-control determination.","governing_control_source_id":"SA39-CO-CALI-DIRECTORY-2","comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 8 members for this board. This is a roster count, not a verified statutory seat total or party-control determination.","governing_control_source_id":"SA39-CO-CALI-DIRECTORY-2","comparison_ci":null,"comparison_status":"Comparison unavailable","volatility_method":"Grouped Pedersen lower bound (percentage points). Ten exact standalone national-party labels. Mixed coalitions, unidentified CEDE codes and other lists stay Other. Changes in coalition participation are not resolved into constituent-party votes. Geographic and actual-event audits remain open. An interval is withheld if either election has no list mapped to an explicit named group. This is aggregate share change, not individual voter switching. 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No within-president month-on-month trend is computed. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 7 members for this board. 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Four previously missing office records are added. Putumayo and Vichada bulletins are preliminary; most new event outcomes lack certified vote vectors. Six ordinary assembly returns, the national JAL register and histories, certified seats and the legal relationship between new and superseded polls remain incomplete. The certified-results service blocked access. Legislative aggregation reviewed across 3,388 histories: 95 existing vote totals changed, including 94 with duplicated positive closed-list rows; mixed-list classifications remain excluded. Bogotá mayor cycles 2015/2019 and Santiago council cycles 2015/2019 are recovered by explicit name/code bridges. Bogotá and Cali 2015 council data are flagged partial; no full three-cycle comparison is claimed for them. Cali now has 37 registered JAL boards and 824 named membership records across three directory snapshots; these are not three election cycles. Its 2025 roster contains 300 names. The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 9 members for this board. 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The national historical download portal also presents a security-screening block.","local_note":"Official Cali directory names this local administrative board. Three membership snapshots (June 2023, August 2024 and 2025) are retained as dated officeholder evidence, not as three election cycles. Party affiliations, complete votes, certified seats and intervening new/complementary elections remain unresolved. The expected 2027 ordinary renewal awaits a formal office-specific call.","sources":["https://datos.cali.gov.co/dataset/f6cd884b-3f3b-4388-b038-63d27f22aa1a/resource/1ddaa973-1e74-40b1-9f43-394b9c7e7bbd/download/juntas-administradoras-locales-periodo-2025.csv"],"selected_keys":[],"all_keys":[],"shares":[[null,null],[null,null],[null,null]],"cycle_sources":["","",""],"parent":"Cali","governing_control_note":"The 2025 city directory names 9 members for this board. 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Competition/volatility not filled from an older event instead.\"}","source":""},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-ALC-20295","year":null,"issue":"Actual-event sequence interrupted","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-ALC-20295\", \"issue\": \"Actual-event sequence interrupted\", \"detail\": \"Known special/repeated event joined; primary final certificate and relationship to ordinary return still pending. Competition/volatility not filled from an older event instead.\"}","source":""},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-ALC-25875","year":null,"issue":"Actual-event sequence interrupted","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-ALC-25875\", \"issue\": \"Actual-event sequence interrupted\", \"detail\": \"Known special/repeated event joined; primary final certificate and relationship to ordinary return still pending. Competition/volatility not filled from an older event instead.\"}","source":""},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-ALC-41306","year":null,"issue":"Actual-event sequence interrupted","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-ALC-41306\", \"issue\": \"Actual-event sequence interrupted\", \"detail\": \"Known special/repeated event joined; primary final certificate and relationship to ordinary return still pending. Competition/volatility not filled from an older event instead.\"}","source":""},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-ALC-44279","year":null,"issue":"Actual-event sequence interrupted","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-ALC-44279\", \"issue\": \"Actual-event sequence interrupted\", \"detail\": \"Known special/repeated event joined; primary final certificate and relationship to ordinary return still pending. Competition/volatility not filled from an older event instead.\"}","source":""},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-ALC-44420","year":null,"issue":"Actual-event sequence interrupted","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-ALC-44420\", \"issue\": \"Actual-event sequence interrupted\", \"detail\": \"Known special/repeated event joined; primary final certificate and relationship to ordinary return still pending. Competition/volatility not filled from an older event instead.\"}","source":""},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-ALC-47745","year":null,"issue":"Actual-event sequence interrupted","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-ALC-47745\", \"issue\": \"Actual-event sequence interrupted\", \"detail\": \"Known special/repeated event joined; primary final certificate and relationship to ordinary return still pending. Competition/volatility not filled from an older event instead.\"}","source":""},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-ALC-52256","year":null,"issue":"Actual-event sequence interrupted","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-ALC-52256\", \"issue\": \"Actual-event sequence interrupted\", \"detail\": \"Known special/repeated event joined; primary final certificate and relationship to ordinary return still pending. Competition/volatility not filled from an older event instead.\"}","source":""},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-ALC-52352","year":null,"issue":"Actual-event sequence interrupted","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-ALC-52352\", \"issue\": \"Actual-event sequence interrupted\", \"detail\": \"Known special/repeated event joined; primary final certificate and relationship to ordinary return still pending. Competition/volatility not filled from an older event instead.\"}","source":""},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-ALC-52612","year":null,"issue":"Actual-event sequence interrupted","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-ALC-52612\", \"issue\": \"Actual-event sequence interrupted\", \"detail\": \"Known special/repeated event joined; primary final certificate and relationship to ordinary return still pending. Competition/volatility not filled from an older event instead.\"}","source":""},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-ALC-54520","year":null,"issue":"Actual-event sequence interrupted","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-ALC-54520\", \"issue\": \"Actual-event sequence interrupted\", \"detail\": \"Known special/repeated event joined; primary final certificate and relationship to ordinary return still pending. Competition/volatility not filled from an older event instead.\"}","source":""},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-ALC-68001","year":null,"issue":"Actual-event sequence interrupted","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-ALC-68001\", \"issue\": \"Actual-event sequence interrupted\", \"detail\": \"Known special/repeated event joined; primary final certificate and relationship to ordinary return still pending. Competition/volatility not filled from an older event instead.\"}","source":""},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-ALC-68207","year":null,"issue":"Actual-event sequence interrupted","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-ALC-68207\", \"issue\": \"Actual-event sequence interrupted\", \"detail\": \"Known special/repeated event joined; primary final certificate and relationship to ordinary return still pending. Competition/volatility not filled from an older event instead.\"}","source":""},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-ALC-68307","year":null,"issue":"Actual-event sequence interrupted","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-ALC-68307\", \"issue\": \"Actual-event sequence interrupted\", \"detail\": \"Known special/repeated event joined; primary final certificate and relationship to ordinary return still pending. Competition/volatility not filled from an older event instead.\"}","source":""},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-ALC-68500","year":null,"issue":"Actual-event sequence interrupted","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-ALC-68500\", \"issue\": \"Actual-event sequence interrupted\", \"detail\": \"Known special/repeated event joined; primary final certificate and relationship to ordinary return still pending. Competition/volatility not filled from an older event instead.\"}","source":""},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-ALC-73217","year":null,"issue":"Actual-event sequence interrupted","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-ALC-73217\", \"issue\": \"Actual-event sequence interrupted\", \"detail\": \"Known special/repeated event joined; primary final certificate and relationship to ordinary return still pending. Competition/volatility not filled from an older event instead.\"}","source":""},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-ALC-73449","year":null,"issue":"Actual-event sequence interrupted","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-ALC-73449\", \"issue\": \"Actual-event sequence interrupted\", \"detail\": \"Known special/repeated event joined; primary final certificate and relationship to ordinary return still pending. Competition/volatility not filled from an older event instead.\"}","source":""},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-ALC-86571","year":null,"issue":"Actual-event sequence interrupted","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-ALC-86571\", \"issue\": \"Actual-event sequence interrupted\", \"detail\": \"Known special/repeated event joined; primary final certificate and relationship to ordinary return still pending. Competition/volatility not filled from an older event instead.\"}","source":""},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-CON-05576","year":null,"issue":"Actual-event sequence interrupted","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-CON-05576\", \"issue\": \"Actual-event sequence interrupted\", \"detail\": \"Known special/repeated event joined; primary final certificate and relationship to ordinary return still pending. Competition/volatility not filled from an older event instead.\"}","source":""},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-CON-15293","year":null,"issue":"Actual-event sequence interrupted","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-CON-15293\", \"issue\": \"Actual-event sequence interrupted\", \"detail\": \"Known special/repeated event joined; primary final certificate and relationship to ordinary return still pending. Competition/volatility not filled from an older event instead.\"}","source":""},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-CON-44279","year":null,"issue":"Actual-event sequence interrupted","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-CON-44279\", \"issue\": \"Actual-event sequence interrupted\", \"detail\": \"Known special/repeated event joined; primary final certificate and relationship to ordinary return still pending. Competition/volatility not filled from an older event instead.\"}","source":""},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-CON-52612","year":null,"issue":"Actual-event sequence interrupted","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-CON-52612\", \"issue\": \"Actual-event sequence interrupted\", \"detail\": \"Known special/repeated event joined; primary final certificate and relationship to ordinary return still pending. Competition/volatility not filled from an older event instead.\"}","source":""},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-GOB-00047","year":null,"issue":"Actual-event sequence interrupted","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-GOB-00047\", \"issue\": \"Actual-event sequence interrupted\", \"detail\": \"Known special/repeated event joined; primary final certificate and relationship to ordinary return still pending. Competition/volatility not filled from an older event instead.\"}","source":""},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-GOB-00086","year":null,"issue":"Actual-event sequence interrupted","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-GOB-00086\", \"issue\": \"Actual-event sequence interrupted\", \"detail\": \"Known special/repeated event joined; primary final certificate and relationship to ordinary return still pending. Competition/volatility not filled from an older event instead.\"}","source":""},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-GOB-00088","year":null,"issue":"Actual-event sequence interrupted","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-GOB-00088\", \"issue\": \"Actual-event sequence interrupted\", \"detail\": \"Known special/repeated event joined; primary final certificate and relationship to ordinary return still pending. Competition/volatility not filled from an older event instead.\"}","source":""},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-GOB-00099","year":null,"issue":"Actual-event sequence interrupted","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-GOB-00099\", \"issue\": \"Actual-event sequence interrupted\", \"detail\": \"Known special/repeated event joined; primary final certificate and relationship to ordinary return still pending. Competition/volatility not filled from an older event instead.\"}","source":""},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-ALC-CHOCO-NUEVO-BELEN-DE-BAJIRA","year":null,"issue":"Actual-event sequence interrupted","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-ALC-CHOCO-NUEVO-BELEN-DE-BAJIRA\", \"issue\": \"Actual-event sequence interrupted\", \"detail\": \"Known special/repeated event joined; primary final certificate and relationship to ordinary return still pending. Competition/volatility not filled from an older event instead.\"}","source":""},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-CON-CHOCO-NUEVO-BELEN-DE-BAJIRA","year":null,"issue":"Actual-event sequence interrupted","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-CON-CHOCO-NUEVO-BELEN-DE-BAJIRA\", \"issue\": \"Actual-event sequence interrupted\", \"detail\": \"Known special/repeated event joined; primary final certificate and relationship to ordinary return still pending. Competition/volatility not filled from an older event instead.\"}","source":""},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-ALC-PUTUMAYO-SANTIAGO","year":null,"issue":"Actual-event sequence interrupted","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-ALC-PUTUMAYO-SANTIAGO\", \"issue\": \"Actual-event sequence interrupted\", \"detail\": \"Known special/repeated event joined; primary final certificate and relationship to ordinary return still pending. Competition/volatility not filled from an older event instead.\"}","source":""},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-CON-PUTUMAYO-SANTIAGO","year":null,"issue":"Actual-event sequence interrupted","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-CON-PUTUMAYO-SANTIAGO\", \"issue\": \"Actual-event sequence interrupted\", \"detail\": \"Known special/repeated event joined; primary final certificate and relationship to ordinary return still pending. Competition/volatility not filled from an older event instead.\"}","source":""},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-CON-11011","year":2015,"issue":"Incomplete 2015 council source","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-CON-11011\", \"year\": 2015, \"issue\": \"Incomplete 2015 council source\", \"detail\": \"Example: CEDE records 0 votes for Yefer Yesid Vega despite the published 2015 election result showing a positive vote and elected seat. The CEDE party aggregate cannot be treated as complete. The 2015 file lists only 20 elected flags for the 45-member Bogotá council; Yefer Yesid Vega is recorded with zero votes despite his elected 2015 mandate.\", \"source\": \"https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860\"}","source":"https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"},{"country":"Colombia","id":"CO-CON-76001","year":2015,"issue":"Incomplete 2015 council source","detail":"{\"id\": \"CO-CON-76001\", \"year\": 2015, \"issue\": \"Incomplete 2015 council source\", \"detail\": \" The 2015 file lists only 10 elected flags for the 21-member Cali council; zero rows and missing declared membership require independent reconciliation.\", \"source\": \"https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860\"}","source":"https://datahub.uniandes.edu.co/api/access/datafile/2860"}],"sources":[{"source_id":"S8164286948","title":"CEDE Colombia 2015 alcaldia","url":"https://doi.org/10.71590/R2KLKI/UJ4B6K","grade":"Primary research dataset; ordinary returns; 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